Opinion: The Economy Game

Running the national economy is like driving in a motor race. Except that you are four inches tall. You don’t know where you are and you don’t have a map. There are lots of pedals, but you don’t know what they are supposed to do. When you press them, they sometimes make the car lurch around unpredictably, sometimes just blow out air or wipe the windows. The other drivers don’t agree on the rules. Some of them seem to be playing Grand Theft Auto.

Oh, and by the way, a couple of other guys are fighting you for a share of the controls. And just one more thing – You are on the stage, with an audience of sixty million! Fortunately, perhaps, most of them can’t be bothered to watch.

So what sort of game is this? Can we look at it objectively, as a game theorist would do, and work out how best to play it?

Well, first of all, playing it straight is obviously a mug’s game. The chances of genuinely sorting out the economy by making the right move, at the right time, for the right reasons, look pretty slim. How often has anyone really done that, and made it up onto the victor’s podium? Not since Roosevelt…

Playing to the gallery looks a much smarter idea. There are loads of simple crowd-pleasing manoeuvres you can try. Like revving wildly and making a big noise; or deflating your opponent’s tyres; or, purloining the winning post and erecting it alongside your car….!

Now kiddies, let’s watch as today’s racing politicos put these clever ideas into practice. When Brown says “I am applying Keynesian economics to create a fiscal stimulus”, he knows it sounds more prime-ministerial than “Gosh, we’re skint, can anyone lend me a quid?” When Brown calls for “globally coordinated economic policies”, it sounds better than saying “I am standing in deep doo-doo. Please join me so that I won’t look so conspicuous!”

While Brown struggles to scrub himself clean, Osborne dishes more dirt. “I fear a run on the pound” can be translated as “I hope Gordon’s going to trip up, especially when I stick my foot out.” Whereas “We cannot promise tax cuts in the current economic climate” means “We’re going to sit on the fence, and blame Gordon for putting us there!”

To be serious though, Labour do have a viable strategy to garner good publicity out of economic mayhem. Equally, the Tories realise that it is crucial for them to scupper it. The Achilles heel, for both of these strategies, is that they are so strongly partisan. So, our opportunity is to be the people who tell it like it is, who say things which the independent commentators won’t rubbish, and who gain public trust and respect. That is what Vince does so well.

Crucially, Labour and the Tories also understand the vital need to look deeply serious, to pretend to a depth of expertise they do not have, and to seem to empathise with a worried public. How do we rate?

Well, our tax cuts for the less well off are certainly popular. So is getting tough with rich bankers. But we fall short, I suggest, on three counts.

Posted in Op-eds | 17 Comments
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Reasons to be optimistic about turnout

Cross-posted from The Wardman Wire:

Whilst claims of huge increases in US electoral turnout this year have turned out to be myths, with turnout only rising by around 1% on 2004, the continued gradual improvement in turnout in British elections is going largely unremarked.

The improvement is not yet sufficient to cause rejoicing, but there are solid grounds for being cautiously optimistic, particularly as the next general election is likely to be the first since 1992 in which the outcome is in real doubt before the votes are counted, which should give a further boost to turnout levels.

The evidence for …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 6 Comments

Danny Alexander writes… Help us win the battle of ideas!

On January 17th, the Federal Policy Committee, in association with the Keynes Forum, is arranging a one day conference at the London School of Economics (LSE) in London to look at “creating a progressive society”. It promises to be a very interesting day, opening with a keynote speech from Nick Clegg MP.

In the morning we will have a plenary session looking at the political challenges and opportunities for the party in creating a progressive society. In the afternoon plenary we will consider the issue of social mobility following the anticipated report from the Social Mobility Commission which …

Posted in Party policy and internal matters | 3 Comments

Osborne set to announce fuel tax increases

In a dramatic move intended to demonstrate his resolve and consistency, George Osborne is set to follow through on his summer consultation over introducing a fuel tax stabiliser, and will call for an increase in fuel duty.

As he said when launching the policy idea on 6th July:

A common sense plan to help families, bring stability to the public finances and help the environment by making the price of carbon less volatile.

The plan stated:

If a Fair Fuel Stabiliser had been introduced at the 2008 Budget, fuel would now be 5p per litre cheaper, shaving £3.50 off a tank

…

Posted in Leadership Election | Tagged | 16 Comments

LDV readers say: keep the BBC licence fee

Last month, just as ‘BrandRossGate’ was snowballing into the greatest catastrophe to hit the BBC since they hired Jeremy Vine to be the new Peter Snow on election-nights, Lib Dem Voice asked our readers the timely question: how do you think the BBC should be funded?

We presented four options (which, as ever, didn’t suit all commenters) to choose from – here’s what you told us:

• As at present, through the BBC licence fee – 216 (40%)
• Scrap the licence fee, but pay for the BBC through general taxation – 110 (20%)
• Scrap the licence fee,

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Posted in Voice polls | 16 Comments
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Top of the Blogs: The Golden Dozen #91

Welcome to the 91st of our weekly round-ups from the Lib Dem blogosphere, featuring the seven most popular stories according to click-throughs from the Aggregator (9th-15th November), together with a hand-picked quintet, mostly courtesy of LibDig, you might otherwise have missed.

How about starting with the most popular blog-posting, and we work our way down? Here goes…

Posted in Best of the blogs | 4 Comments

BBC: Clegg’s policies closest to Obama’s

The Voice is indebted to James Graham for alerting LibDig.co.uk readers to this article on the BBC website:

Britain’s political leaders are naturally keen to be seen as Barack Obama’s political soulmate – but can any of them truly compare to the US President-elect? How do they measure up?

A tantalising intro… here’s what Brian says about the Lib Dem leader’s policies:

Barack Obama: Was against the Iraq war from the start and backs phased withdrawal of troops. He wants a “surge” in troops in Afghanistan and is open to negotiations with Iran. But it was the economy that defined

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Posted in News | Tagged | 2 Comments

A New Liberal Order

From Time Magazine, Peter Beinart’s take on the Obama Presidency: it is “just the beginning… Shifting attitudes about government will make Democrats the ruling party for a generation”

The death and rebirth of American liberalism both began with flags in Grant Park. On Aug. 28, 1968, 10,000 people gathered there to protest the Democratic Convention taking place a few blocks away, which was about to nominate Lyndon Johnson’s Vice President, Hubert Humphrey, thus implicitly ratifying the hated Vietnam War. Chicago mayor Richard Daley had warned the protesters not to disrupt his city and denied them permits to assemble, but they came anyway. All afternoon, the protesters chanted and the police hovered, until about 3:30, when someone climbed a flagpole and began lowering the American flag.

Posted in LDVUSA and News | 8 Comments

NEW POLL: is presumed consent the right way to boost organ donations?

The figures are stark. Here’s The Guardian:

An estimated 8,000 people in the UK need an organ transplant but only 3,000 operations are carried out each year. About 1,000 people in the UK die every year while waiting for a transplant.

The question is more difficult: should we move away from the current organ donor opt-in system towards a system of ‘presumed consent’, which would mean that unless people opted out of the register or family members objected, hospitals would be allowed to use their organs for transplants.

Lib Dem MP Dr Evan Harris, chair of All-Party Kidney Group and member of …

Posted in Voice polls | Tagged and | 18 Comments

Don’t moan about the media – make-up for it instead!

Stephen Tall’s post last week– Lib Dem tax policy: the media’s starting to listen, so now will the public get to hear about it? – highlighted how the media are increasingly rating our approach – and Vince Cable’s in particular – to economic issues.

As ever with Stephen, the post was full of good points and insight, but I think a key point was missed when he said that the reason for this not translating yet into higher support for the party is in part due to “anti-Lib Dem media bias and external factors beyond our control.”

Well yes – both …

Posted in Op-eds | 3 Comments

BNP to seek police authority posts

The Times has this:

Leaders of the far-right party believe that their hardline message will chime with voters when, as expected, crime rises during the recession. They can be expected to exploit fears of crime caused by migrant workers in places where immigration from eastern Europe has been high.

Winning seats on police authorities would give the BNP influence over forces’ budgets, the appointment of chief officers and the allocation of resources.

Senior officers and police authorities are alarmed at the proposals for direct elections, which are supported, in differing forms, by Labour, the

…

Posted in News | Tagged | 24 Comments

Weekly catchup, 17 November

With the sad news of Baby P came a sudden influx of new visitors to the Voice this week.  Our article highlighting local MP Lynne Featherstone’s measured question at PMQs unexpectedly became the top link on Google for Baby P, drawing in more people than we’ve ever seen one thread before.  The result is a sombre wake-up call which shows some of our more jaded regulars and editors like me just what the general public really thinks about stories like this.  The posting attracted over 200 moving postings, the vast majority from people who’ve never been to LDV before. …

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Opinion: Restating the case against capital punishment

Whenever a particularly horrific criminal case is in the media spotlight there are inevitably calls for the reintroduction of capital punishment. Either for the ‘specific case in question’ or, more generally, for the specific type of crime committed. It’s to be expected from ‘foaming at the mouth’ right-wingers, but such views are also shared by many members of the general public.

We have seen that this week on Lib Dem Voice and the comments on Baby P. Nobody is under any illusions about the horrific nature of this case and the deplorable nature of the crimes committed. I think …

Posted in Op-eds | 22 Comments

The Gladstone Lecture: what Alan Beith said…

Alan Beith’s Gladstone Lecture – and specifically his comments that church disestablishment is “not necessary” – attracted much comment earlier this week on LDV. Here Jon Hunt reflects on this and much else…

The grand old man of Liberalism was given his due respect last month.

The phrase is generally applied to Gladstone but could almost be applied to Sir Alan Beith, the former deputy leader of the party, who was chosen to give the first annual Gladstone lecture.

Sir Alan, who is only 65, has just published his autobiography, marking 35 years as serving Liberal MP for Berwick. But if …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 39 Comments

After Baby P: what can be done?

Recently, Lib Dem Voice has been snowed under with hits and comments from new readers, all expressing their anger in the face of the Baby P tragedy. (If you’re a regular, you won’t find anything in this post you don’t already know – fear not, normal LDV service will soon be resumed, but this does seem something of a special case).

If you’re one of those new readers, I’d like to suggest ways you can put your anger to good use. We can all talk endlessly about who’s to blame, what should be

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Posted in News | Tagged , and | 61 Comments

Top of the Blogs: The Golden Dozen #90

We’re still playing catch-up here at LDV, so apologies for belatedness…

Welcome to the 90th of our weekly round-ups from the Lib Dem blogosphere, featuring the seven most popular stories according to click-throughs from the Aggregator (2nd-8th November), together with a hand-picked quintet, mostly courtesy of LibDig, you might otherwise have missed.

How about starting with the most popular blog-posting, and we work our way down? Here goes…

Posted in Best of the blogs | Leave a comment

Nick Clegg on tax avoidance by supermarkets

During the week Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg gave a speech to the Association of Convenience Stores about the future for Britain’s shops:

The supermarkets don’t just have the planning system working in their favour, they’ve also got the tax man eating out of the palm of their hands.

They say that every little helps but then set up hugely complex tax avoidance schemes. They are jumping through loophole after loophole while the Chancellor sits idly by as ordinary families and small business struggle to make ends meet.

Tax avoidance in this country isn’t small scale. It’s a slick and highly lucrative industry.

…

Posted in News | 6 Comments

Post Office Card Account: Labour’s hypocrisy

On Monday 10th November a Liberal Democrat Opposition Day debate was held in the Commons on a motion on the Post Office Card Account.

The wording of the motion was the same as that used in Early Day Motion (EDM) 2008 from this session. The EDM was signed by 47 Labour MPs. In the vote on the motion, however, most of them voted against. Here are their names:

Posted in News | 4 Comments

Opinion: The Horn of Africa and Radicalisation

In the run up to the next election, Labour are going to lay a number of charges against the Liberal Democrats, some of which will attempt to paint our Party as being ‘soft’ on issues of safety and security. Labour has consistently tried to push this, and at the forefront of their strategy will be the charge that the Lib Dems have no coherent strategy to tackle radicalisation and extremism.

Over the last the years, the Government’s PREVENT strategy has been based on five key strands. These have included: challenging the violent extremist ideology; disrupting those who promote violent extremism; supporting individuals who are being targeted and recruited to the cause of violent extremism; increasing the resilience of communities; and addressing the grievances that ideologues are exploiting.

Having had the opportunity to work on PREVENT programmes with various government departments, I know the vast amount of work that is being undertaken on this agenda, with new and innovative thinking playing a role in ensuring safety and security. Yet for me, there is always a fear that communities may be labelled and marginalised, although the Government’s language has become much more sensitive recently. The more important fear is not that certain faith communities will be labelled, it is about the potential impacts on the civil liberties of Muslim and other Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) communities.

Things have moved on significantly since the initial Pathfinder PREVENT programmes were implemented in certain local authorities in 2007/08. Local authorities are starting clearly to differentiate between PREVENT work and community cohesion, though there are common strands. The language of PREVENT is more sensitive, yet preventing violent extremism is clearly stated as being part of the programme of work, even though projects may be labelled in softer ways. Also, many more Muslim civil society groups are applying for funding compared to the few that applied in the initial Pathfinder programmes. So, things are moving on, and the PREVENT work is bedding down in communities.

I am concerned that we do not get caught out by Labour’s charges, and think a detailed analysis of what is taking place on the ground needs to be disseminated to key stakeholders so that we can understand the complexity of the issues around violent extremism. The Government and security agencies have, for example, developed threat assessment frameworks that are related to certain towns and cities in the UK; suffice to say that, even if suspected individuals who can and will carry our violent actions leave the city, it may still be regarded as being an area at risk.

More importantly, the horn of Africa and in particular, the continuing civil war in Somalia, may lead to real problems here in the UK.

Posted in Europe / International and Op-eds | 2 Comments

CommentIsLinked@LDV: Bridget Fox – ‘Labour is ditching its policies through panic not principle’

The latest blog of Bridget Fox, Lib Dem PPC for Islington South and Finsbury, is now live over at The Guardian’s website, with thoughts on Remembrance Sunday and Government climbdowns. Read it in full here, but here’s a powerful section on the pernicious ID cards scheme:

In a particularly nasty move, the government is starting compulsory ID cards with the most marginal members of society – migrants from outside the European Union. This is unlikely to put off the desperate, the ignorant and those with nothing to lose. But it will lose us the skills and goodwill of a generation

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Posted in LibLink | Tagged | 1 Comment

“Constantly ahead of the curve” – Clegg on the Lib Dems

Nick Clegg appeared on the Daily Politics show today, talking about Liberal Democrat tax cut plans and how the party is ahead of the curve. You can watch the piece here.

Posted in News | 37 Comments

Campaigning for a Manchester congestion charge, YouTube style

A postal referendum is currently taking place on proposals for a Manchester congestion charge, with the ballot closing on 11 December. The campaign has reached YouTube as this clip shows (and it’s a typical sign of the times that people’s reaction to the events in the clip is to whip out their mobile phones to take photos):

Posted in Online politics | 6 Comments

How many people visit political websites?

Continuing our series this week of interesting findings from the Committee on Standards in Public Life’s third report into public attitudes towards standards of conduct in public life, today it’s the popularity of political websites:

Usage of websites which focus on politics is much less common : only 4 per cent of respondents said that they visited these websites often, and 12 per cent at least sometimes, in a typical week.

Although the report paints this number as small – with the use of “only” and the comparison with TV – I think the figure of 16% getting political news often …

Posted in News and Online politics | 1 Comment

Sky: Credit to Lynne over Baby P case

Here’s Jon Craig on Sky’s Boulton & Co blog:

Only one person emerges from the Baby P tragedy with credit: the Liberal Democrat MP Lynne Featherstone. Throughout this tawdry affair, in which the conduct of Haringey Council – Labour-run since 1971 – has been scandalous and the Government’s response sluggish until after the Brown-Cameron clash, she has campaigned with dignity and determination.

Just moments after that ill-tempered Commons bust-up between David Cameron and Gordon Brown, the Hornsey and Wood Green MP asked the Prime Minister a question in a measured but forthright tone.

As she pointed out, she was leader of the

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Posted in News | Tagged , , and | 1 Comment

E-voting: abandoned by the Dutch, delayed in the UK

Michael Cross writes in The Guardian:

The Netherlands, which in 2004 and 2006 enthusiastically promoted e-voting for overseas voters as a step towards an all-electronic election, will next year revert to paper ballots. The U-turn followed a successful campaign by a group opposed to all electronic polling machines: its tactics included buying a couple of machines to crack their software.

Leontine Loeber, of the Dutch Electoral Council, told this summer’s European Electronic Voting conference in Austria that it is a mistake to treat voting as just another transaction that can be computerised in the quest for efficiency and modernity. Unlike banking,

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Hackney Council backtracks on library book ban

A quick update on the story about Hackney Council banning a book launch from one of its libraries because the book contained “controversial or political opinions”. Dave Hill has the details of how Hackney is now backing away from its original position, and talking about being happy to stock the book by Iain Sinclair in future.

Posted in News | Tagged | 9 Comments

BBC Question Time: open thread

‘Our Shirl’, Baroness Williams of Crosby, is the Lib Dem representative on tonight’s BBC Question Time (BBC1 and online, 10.35 pm GMT), – a perpetual favourite of the QT producers, and always guaranteed to give a virtuoso performance.

Shirley will be appearing alongside Labour’s Housing Minister Margaret Beckett (still there, after all these years), the Conservative shadow secretary for culture, media and sport (and rhyming slang) Jeremy Hunt, TV commentator, Sun wine columnist (yes, really) and former England rugby player Brian Moore, and associate editor of the Telegraph Simon Heffer (who vies with Peter Hitchens for the title …

Posted in Lib Dem TV | Tagged | 16 Comments

Baby P: CPS confirms information was withheld from the police by Haringey Council

The Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has confirmed The Times’s report that Haringey Council initially withheld information about the Baby P case from the police and lawyers:

It has also emerged Haringey Council did not disclose all information surrounding the case of Baby P to police and prosecutors until ordered to do so by a judge. A spokeswoman for the Crown Prosecution Service said: “We can confirm that not everything was disclosed until the judge requested that everything should be disclosed at the beginning of the trial.” (The Telegraph)

Posted in News | Tagged and | 6 Comments

Post Office keeps contract to run card account

The Government will allow the Post Office to keep the Post Office Card Account contract until at least 2015.

The contract had previously been put out to tender, risking the loss of 3,000 Post Offices if a private firm won the contract.

To cheers in the House of Commons, Work and Pensions Secretary James Purnell announced that the bidding process had been closed, saying, “Now cannot be the time for the government to do anything to put that network at risk.”

Mr Purnell stated that private company Paypoint would be compensated for the cost of bidding for the contract, insisting, “It …

Posted in News | Tagged | 7 Comments

How how much does negative tabloid coverage of politicians matter?

Politicians frequently complain about the coverage the media gives to politics (not enough of it, too superficial, too negative etc.) But what does the public make of it all?

The Committee on Standards in Public Life this week published their third report into public attitudes towards standards of conduct in public life, which included this conclusion based on their research:

People are generally positive about the way in which the media covers political news, with the exception that they are widely critical of the tabloid press, which they see as setting out to tarnish the names of politicians, with little regard

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Posted in News | 8 Comments
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