Some brief thoughts on today’s results

It’s that time on the day after an election where you know it’s not long until you can go to sleep. Your feet ache. Your eyelids feel like they are about to slam shut any second and there’s nothing you can do about it. When I’ve finished writing this, I’m going to have a glass of wine, something to eat and go to bed.

We would have liked Rallings and Thrasher’s predication of gains to be right. After all these years of traumatic election nights during the Coalition years, we just wanted to catch a break. We didn’t want to be losing people. For every one of the seats that we lost, a team has been working its backside off for months and has seen its dreams shattered.  The number we’ve lost is relatively small, certainly compared to previous years, but every one is painful. It equally hurts when you come close to making a gain but don’t pull it off. Spare a thought for poor Daniel Coleman who lost out in the Strathmartine ward in Dundee by just 9 votes. Behind every result is a long series of nights door-knocking in the freezing cold, of weekends given up to leafletting, of all your free time being taken up with casework.

Now, though, there is a lot of good news. We have had some great results that bode well for our short term objective of a decent performance in the General Election. On the basis of today’s results, at least 6 seats in Scotland are most definitely in play – and then you look at places south of the border like St Albans, Lewes, Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Bath, Cheltenham. There is direct, recent evidence that we are the main challengers in these seats. In Edinburgh West, North East Fife, Argyll and Bute, Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, Ross Skye and Lochaber and East Dunbartonshire, we can confidently say that we are the main challengers to the SNP.

One of the advantages, if you can call it that, is that Theresa May can’t pretend any more that there is the slightest possibility of Jeremy Corbyn hanging pictures of Che Guevara all over Number 10. We all know she is going to be the PM on 9th June. We just need to make sure that Parliament has the chance to exercise its authority and stop her from doing things that are clearly not in the national interest like drag us out of the single market. There needs to be some sort of safety mechanism that can get out out of their hard brexit once it becomes obvious what a disaster it is going to be. The people must be allowed to vote on the deal and remain if they so wish. 

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Lib Dems up to 18% nationally (BBC), performing well in key target general election seats

The BBC are reporting that the Liberal Democrat projected national vote is 18%, up 7 points compared to 2015. The Lib Dems are just 9 points behind Labour. The Conservatives are up by just 3 points. This is confirmed by Professor John Curtice and Britain Elects:

A party press release reads:

The party is on course to make scores of gains at the general election and establish themselves as the real opposition to the Conservatives, based on the local election results in so far.

Seats as diverse as Bath, Cambridge, Cardiff Central, Cheltenham, Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Edinburgh West, St Albans and Watford would fall to the Liberal Democrats on the basis of the results so far. This would more than double the size of the Liberal Democrat parliamentary party.

The Liberal Democrats topped the polls in Eastbourne despite Theresa May’s visit, and early signs are they are surging ahead in Scottish seats such as East Dunbartonshire and NE Fife.

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Jo Swinson interview: part 5 – contemporary politics and what she’s doing now

This is the fifth and final part of an interview which took place during the Party’s Spring Conference in York. Events have somewhat overtaken it, as you will realise when you get to the end… The first part of the interview can be found here, the second part here, the third here and the fourth here.

As I’m sat opposite a prominent Scottish Lib Dem, I must ask you about the recent call by the SNP for a second Scottish independence referendum. What are your views on independence for Scotland and is Theresa May right to refuse

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Lib Dems select Jo Roundell-Greene for Yeovil

The Liberal Democrats have selected award-winning senior councillor Jo Roundell-Greene for Yeovil.

From Somerset Live:

Paddy Ashdown, Chairman of Yeovil Liberal Democrats said: “David Laws and I are delighted that the flame passes to Jo Roundell Greene who has been an exceptional councillor and champion for our area.

“I know that she will be a brilliant hardworking and effective Liberal Democrat MP who will fight for all, especially the most vulnerable in our communities.”

Jo Roundell Greene was named amongst the best councillors in the country at the Local Government Awards in 2016. She is a wife, mother and grandmother, and has

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Election night open thread

Welcome to our Election Night open thread. We’ll be looking at the results as they come in from all over the country. The most exciting thing we are likely to find out tonight is whether we have managed to make up ground in Cardiff. Most results come in tomorrow.

Where are the key battlegrounds?

Let’s have a look at the elections being contested. Every council seat in Wales and Scotland is up for grabs, as is every County Council seat in England. For us key battlegrounds include Cardiff, Edinburgh and Cornwall. We have new mayoral contests in Greater Manchester (where Jane Brophy is our candidate), Cambridgeshire and Peterborough (Rod Cantrill), Tyne Tees (Chris Foote-Wood), West Midlands (Beverley Nielsen), Liverpool (Carl Cashman) and Western Counties (Stephen Williams). These elections all took place on different nights the last time. The last Scottish and Welsh elections were in 2012 and they were grim for us. We lost more than half our councillors in Scotland and pretty much half our councillors in Wales. The county elections in 2013 were pretty grim too, with 124 losses. There will be a few Welsh results in tonight but other than that (fingers crossed for our Welsh colleagues) but the main action happens tomorrow. So, what is Twitter telling us about the elections so far, in this early part of the night.

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It’s polling day. It’s 10 o’clock. Tim says thanks

As polls close in the local elections, Tim Farron has emailed party members to say thanks for all the hard work they have done over many months which has culminated in a very long day today. Activists are in pain right now. Many have been on the go since before dawn. And under normal circumstances, they’d be able to rest up for a bit, but Theresa May had other plans for our lives for the next five weeks.

Anyway, here’s what Tim said:

Hi

Polls are now closed in England, Scotland and Wales.

I want to thank every one of you that

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LibLink: Nick Clegg: The EU knows Theresa May is deluded on Brexit and soon the Tories will

Nick Clegg has been writing for the Guardian on Theresa May’s approach to Brexit. The article was published before May made her bizarre statement in Downing Street yesterday. Here is what Nick had to say later about that:

Theresa May’s desperate, bizarre statement could have come word for word from Nigel Farage.

The Coalition of Hard Brexit between the Conservatives and UKIP is now complete, and it will be hard-pressed families up and down the country who will suffer most.

In his Guardian article, he looks at the costs we are already paying for Brexit – which, remember, we were told would cost us nothing an in fact give us more money to spend on our NHS:

Voters are already aware that the cost-free Brexit they were promised is unravelling. The £350m a week for the NHS, the VAT cut and the instant solution to immigration have all evaporated. Instead there is the chilling grip of a growing Brexit squeeze on people’s income and public services.

Sterling is about 17% lower against the euro than it was in summer of 2015 (a lesser devaluation, of 14.3%, undid Harold Wilson’s government), which has led to inflation rising from around zero to 2.3% today. With average earnings continuing to stall, the cost of living is rising as we are forced to pay more for imported goods. Prices on supermarket shelves will go up. Energy bills will increase. And the cost of holidays this summer will be higher too, with everything from ice creams to hotel rooms noticeably more expensive.

Brexit will damage public services too. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s growth estimates, coupled with the chancellor’s revelation in November that he will have to borrow about an extra £15bn a year from next year to plug the Brexit gap, amounts to a £59bn Brexit dent in the public finances over five years. That’s money that could have been spent on hospitals, schools and social care. The chancellor will have no choice but to cut elsewhere or raise taxes to provide our public services with the additional funding they desperately need. Whatever his choice, it’s you – the taxpayer – who will foot the government’s Brexit bill.

We voters need to understand the consequences of May’s reckless strategy, he argues:

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Lib Dem Aude Boubaker-Calder featured in article on EU nationals seeking election as councillors

The Scotsman ran a feature the other day on the candidates from the EU who are standing for election in Scotland’s council elections.

Aude Boubaker-Calder is standing in West Fife and Coastal Villages in Willie Rennie’s old Westminster constituency.

“I wanted to join a fair, tolerant party that supports the European Union,” said Boubaker-Calder, who moved across the North Sea from Belgium after meeting her Scottish husband while working in Brussels.

“In Belgium, we tend to be a bit more involved in politics as voting is compulsory. However, in Scotland, and the UK in general, people are more passionate when they talk about politics. Involvement in Belgium is more subtle. Aude, who lives in Dunfermline, added: “I’m someone who likes to be involved in their community. I want to make a positive difference. “Education is my priority in the Dunfermline area. We have issues affecting the catchment areas of schools, and rising school rotas. Everyone deserves the best start in life.”

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Jo Swinson interview: part 4 – the battle for greater equality

In yesterday’s third part of the interview, Jo talked about a range of issues from Easter eggs to body image. Today, it’s the turn of equality issues, both in society and within the Party. The first part of the interview can be found here, and the second part here.

Perhaps, what you are best known for is your continual fight for gender equality. You were the Minister for Women through much of the Coalition. In your recent article in the Huffington Post, you paint a bleak picture of the current state of the road towards gender equality and what, as a society, we need to do at both macro and micro levels. In your heart of hearts, do you ever think equality for women will be achieved?

I challenge the premise of your question slightly. It’s not just about equality for women, but it’s also about equality for men. Gender inequality harms men as well as women. The words ‘gender’ and ‘women’ are not interchangeable. If you think about men’s role as fathers and about the pressure on males in terms of masculinity and what it means to be a man, the stats on male suicide rates and male mental health issues are really worrying.

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Willie Rennie: Every Liberal Democrat councillor will be a champion for their community, not a cheerleader for independence

Willie Rennie has delivered his final rallying call of the Council campaign in Scotland. Every council seat in the country is up for grabs today.

This is what he had to say:

It is incredibly important that everyone has their say on who they want to represent their community.

Every Liberal Democrat Councillor will be a local champion that communities deserve. They will work all year round, not just at election time. Despite the Greens and the SNP wanting to put independence back to the top of the agenda, Liberal Democrats will serve to deliver the improvements to local services that we need.

Our

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The Independent View: tackling bad landlords

With more and more people relying on the private rented sector for their housing, the Liberal Democrats will be looking to develop a workable policy that supports tenants and encourages good landlords.

Last year Caroline Pidgeon from the Greater London Assembly published startling research. It showed that in the whole of 2015/16, just 411 landlords had been prosecuted across the capital, with a quarter of all boroughs not prosecuting any landlord at all. This is despite there being over 400 regulations governing the sector.

This highlights that the problem of tackling bad landlords is in large part due to regulations not …

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WATCH: When Tim and Theresa meet the public

The party’s digital people are really on form at the moment. Within hours of Tim Farron’s friendly argument with a voter yesterday, they had this out on social media contrasting what happens when Tim and Theresa go out in public. Tim chats away to anyone and came out of that experience with Malcolm very well. Theresa, well, doesn’t really meet ordinary people. This is important because in a democracy, people need to see their leaders under intense public scrutiny. No idea should go unchallenged.

Anyway, enjoy.

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Yesterday’s Press Releases in review – 3 May 2017

Yes, it’s polling day for many of our readers, including here in Suffolk, where I’m our candidate in the evocatively named Upper Gipping division. It’s a river, by the way. Good luck to everyone, be it as candidate, agent, activist or supporter. Your efforts are greatly appreciated.

Here, again, are some of the press releases not covered elsewhere on our pages that were issued yesterday…

Lamb: IFS figures reveal both health and social care spending to fall per person

Both health and social care spending per person are set to fall in the coming years under current government plans, analysis by the Institute …

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Let’s say no to a Coronation of Chaos

Strong and stable leadership is not always a good thing. I mean, the government of the former soviet union was pretty strong, and for decades, stable. And May’s press team is not exactly behaving like it thinks it is in a democracy.

Seriously, though, what do we expect of our Prime Minister when approaching a negotiation of such complexity as managing Brexit so that we ordinary people don’t end up suffering dire consequences for decades? How should she and her ministers behave as we try to rebuild trading relationships with the world from scratch, as we find ourselves isolated and disadvantaged. Frankly, standing in the middle of Downing Street and whining that those nasty Europeans are out to get us is about as irresponsible as it gets.

That is just window dressing at the end of the day. Ramping up tensions ahead of negotiations with cavalier disregard is one thing. Once they get in the room, if there are sufficient grown-ups around, this mess can be cleared up. There is a bigger worry, though. Our lot seem to be approaching this without a realistic strategy of what they can achieve.

I was interested in this translation of the FAZ story about the Juncker/May dinner. Basically, our government seems to be saying “we’ll pretend to leave, and pay you nothing but we won’t really leave and it’ll all be fine.’

The article is worth reading in full, but here is one of the key points. Theresa May apparently wants Brexit to be a bit like the Boris having and eating cake scenario:

Protocol 36 is an addition to the Lisbon Treaty, the last of the great reforms of the European contracts. It summarises various special provisions, on of which concerns the Brits. They had reserved the right to opt out of all domestic and legal policies. Back then, this agreement was sold as a defence of British sovereignty. However, London had immediately opted back in to two thirds of the fifty affected acts of law — out of pure self-interest. This had been kept fairly quiet. May imagined future relationships with the EU in a similar way. While she wanted Britain to make an official hard cut she wanted the country to still be included in matters of its own interest.

Juncker saw two options now — either remain silent and thereby possibly support May’s illusions, or to hit back at her. He decided for the latter.

That’s bad enough on its own, but our lot are playing silly brats over the money as well:

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WATCH: The party’s new video

It’s certainly short and sweet.

What do you think?

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Rennie: Rape clause shows that the Tory mask has slipped & nasty party is nastier than ever

For the last few years, Ruth Davidson has painted herself as the acceptable face of the Tory Party. This time last year, she was an ardent Remainer willing to call out her London colleagues on human rights and the like. Now, she’s a hard brexiteer who is prepared to trivialise the effects of the dreadful family cap which prevents families claiming benefits or tax credits for more than two children – unless they can prove to the satisfaction of a civil servant that a third or subsequent child was conceived by rape.

To do that, women have to complete this shocking form and in the process disclose to a third party that they have been raped. This is information that they may never have shared with someone. What gets me is that someone had to draw up that form. The draft must have gone through various people who all signed it off? It seems incredible that nobody actually thought about the effect on the person filling it in. And what happens if some decision maker at the Department of Work and Pensions decides that somehow they aren’t eligible after all? Has anyone thought this through?

Anyway, tonight, Ruth Davidson made light of all of this, saying that all women had to do was “tick a box.”

Ruth Davidson is wrong to make out that  completing this form is a trauma free exercise. Imagine how you would feel writing down your child’s name & signing that their conception was non consensual. What would be going through your mind?

The Tories are bureaucratising the unacceptable and Ruth should be calling her colleagues out on it, not defending their actions.

Willie Rennie, who took part in the demonstration against the rape clause at Holyrood last week, slammed Davidson’s cavalier comments:

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Jo Swinson interview: part 3 – campaigns, social media and a political hero

In yesterday’s second part of the interview, Jo talked about how she entered politics and, subsequently, Westminster. Today, the conversation turns to Easter eggs and body image… The first part of the interview can be found here.

Throughout your time in office, one of your bugbears appears to be excessive Easter egg packaging. Seeing as Easter is upon us, I thought it would be an apt topic to discuss. At face value, this doesn’t seem a particularly important issue, but when you realise that the excessive packaging causes thousands of tons of waste each year, it clearly is a reasonable concern. You started campaigning on this in 2007 and have even named-and-shamed the main culprits. Has the situation improved in ten years?

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Fight where we can win

Canvassing on the doorstep in South London over the weekend, one thing was clear: despite the excitement of a “Lib Dem fightback” this will be a tough election for the party, and we must fight hard to beat the Tories and Labour where we can win on 8th June.

In Carshalton, where I canvassed for Tom Brake MP on Saturday, it is clear he is being ruthlessly targeted by the Tory Party. Next door the Sutton Tory MP Paul Scully – who has spent two years agitating for Brexit since beating us – is being buttressed by a similar CCHQ campaign, despite a strong national and local campaign on Brexit and the NHS led by our candidate Amna Ahmad. Meanwhile, in places like Bermondsey and Southwark, Labour are not, yet, falling away easily.
It is crucial we are more than equal to the Tory and Labour task and focus our fire on those seats where we remain strong, if we are to make a mark in Westminster after 8th June.

Whilst we rightly snigger at the vacuity of the Tories “Coalition Chaos”, there is no denying that it has some resonance around the country, and we must fight fire with fire. It is up to us to make the case for a return to the pragmatic politics which existed before 2015 – and be as unsentimental as the Tories and Labour about where we make our political case.

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Federal Policy Committee discusses the General Election Manifesto

This report relates to the meeting of the Federal Policy Committee which took place on 2nd May 2017, some 20 years to the day since the Labour landslide General Election victory in 1997.

This meeting commenced at 2pm and went on well past 10pm. The reason for the length of that meeting was that the only item on its agenda was to agree our manifesto for the 2017 General Election.

I am afraid that there is very little that I can say about the contents of the manifesto or the work that underpinned it for reasons that I am sure people will understand.

Comments from the Leader

Tim Farron MP made some introductory remarks about the importance of our manifesto, and the vigour with which we are fighting this campaign.

He stated that we are going to need a very distinctive manifesto in order to differentiate ourselves from the other parties. He said that the message that will come through in the introduction will be different from that in previous manifestos but it is one that has solid evidence behind it. You will see what I mean when you read it.

Campaign Update

Shaun Roberts, the Director of Campaigns, went through the campaign as it stands.

He indicated that we are facing a number of battlegrounds and set out in detail the challenges that we are facing in each one. He said that our present election message is working where it is heard. The challenge is to ensure that it is heard as widely as it can be. The message from us has to be that we are a strong opposition.

Shaun went though some of the groups of voters that we would want to get back. We used to get significant numbers of voters from public sector workers because our policies, underpinned by our strong beliefs, were to stand up for our public services. Our policies as they stand should go a long way towards attracting that group of voters back.

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Another membership milestone: Lib Dem membership reaches record high on eve of local elections

The Liberal Democrats have reached their highest ever membership!

We’ve just gone over the high watermark of 101,768 set in 1994.

The landmark comes as Tim Farron heads to Oxford to rally activists for the party’s final push of the local election campaign.

More than 14,000 new members have joined the Liberal Democrats in the two weeks since the General Election was called. More than 50,000 members have joined since last year’s European referendum and nearly 70,000 since the 2015 General Election.

Tim Farron pledged to build the party to 100,000 members by the end of the parliament as a key pledge during his 2015 leadership campaign – but at that point everyone expected the end of the parliament to be 2020.

Tim said:

We are going into these local elections bigger than ever before, with a clear message and a growing sense of momentum.

In many of the counties where these elections are taking place it is the Liberal Democrats who are the main challengers to the Conservatives. Liberal Democrat councillors are the strong opposition to the Conservatives across the country, standing up to them on cuts to schools and elderly care.

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Yesterday’s Press Releases in review – 2 May 2017

Interestingly, yesterday’s post triggered quite a lot of comments. Not necessarily related to the press releases, but there you go. Feel free to comment about anything covered here, or not, as you wish.

Here are some of the press releases not covered elsewhere on our pages that were issued yesterday…

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WATCH: Nick Clegg’s speech on Brexit

Nick Clegg gave his first major speech on Brexit of the election campaign today. You can watch it below. The full text follows:

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No Progressive Alliance please, we’re Liberals!

Recently there has been much talk of abandoning our principles and going in with the Greens and the Labour Party. Now my stance on this doesn’t come from some sort of archetypal hatred of them. In fact many of my friends belong to the Labour and Green movements. I have fond memories of standing side by side in Peterborough handing out leaflets and speaking to people about why we thought it was best to remain. I still keep cordial relations with the Greens and the Labour moderates. We campaign for Open Britain together and there is a lot to be said for cross party cooperation in this sense. Logic dictates when you believe in a common cause you should work as a team to achieve this.

However, the common cause on Europe is not a plan for government. We radically differ on policy with the Greens with regards to economic policy. With Labour, our Social Democratic wing undoubtedly has significant overlaps with the Labour moderate wing. However for every similarity there is a difference. I cannot honestly stand for election on a manifesto I disagree with, this is what would happen with the so called progressive alliance.

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Jo Swinson interview: part 2 – first steps in politics and what it’s like to be a young woman at Westminster

In yesterday’s first part of the interview, Jo spoke of how she entered politics and why. In today’s excerpt, she talks about what it is like to be a young woman in politics and how she dealt with it….

TIME IN POLITICS

From watching you on YouTube and from sitting opposite you here listening to you speak, you come across as very confident and it’s difficult to imagine you suffer from nerves. When you were 21 years old and stood for parliament, were you nervous? And do you still get nervous nowadays?

Of course. I was nervous going up

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Can Brexit help us do well in the election?

Opposition to a cliff-edge Brexit will be one of the defining messages for our party in the upcoming election. Will it work?

It can – but it needs to be handled well.

That is the message from a recent analysis that we have conducted looking at over 10 million Brexit-related tweets between November and April. Over that period, pro-Brexiteers have been overwhelmingly more successful than those who are opposing Brexit or opposing a hard Brexit. Why?

The pro-Brexiteers use effective, emotive language while anti-Brexiteers have a fondness for complex, rational arguments that have little resonance. Pro-Brexiteers are much more active on social …

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Remainers must not be silenced

In the aftermath of the referendum, the Remain viewpoint has been a still small voice. Too still and too small. There are a couple of reasons for this, the first to do with the character of Remainers and the second with how they’ve been treated.

Remainers on the whole are civilised people, reflective and self critical, inclined to see the other person’s point of view. They are not given to elbowing their way to the front of the bar shouting their order for a drink; they leave that to the Nigel Farages of …

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Yesterday’s Press Releases in review: 1 May 2017

It may have been a Bank Holiday, but the Press Team never rest. Here are some of the releases they sent out yesterday that aren’t covered elsewhere in our pages;

Farron: FAZ report on May’s Juncker dinner show this Govt has no clue on Brexit

According to damning reports in the German press on Theresa May’s dinner with Juncker last week, EU sources believe there is now more than 50% chance of a disorderly Brexit, while May has made clear to the European Commission she fully expects to be re-elected as Prime Minister.

Liberal Democrat Leader Tim Farron commented:

These reports blow a

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Welcome to my day: 2 May 2017

Hello, hello, can you hear me? Is this thing working?

* blows dust off keyboard *

Yes, all seems to be well enough.

As you might expect, the Liberal Democrat Voice team are somewhat busy at the moment, what with local elections this week, and a General Election to come thereafter, in which most of the regulars have key roles in various campaigns. And so I thought that I ought to step out of retirement to lend a hand. Many of our newer readers will not know who I am, so a quick (re-)introduction is …

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Clegg: Poor, insecure and vulnerable already paying price of Theresa May’s hard brexit

Nick Clegg is to make his first major intervention of the election campaign this afternoon in a speech at the National Liberal Club.
The former Deputy Prime Minister will criticise Theresa May for her pursuit of a hard Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn for his inept opposition.

He will point to analysis showing the average UK household is set to be £500 worse off this year than it was in 2016, and stress that only the Liberal Democrats are capable of providing this Conservative government with the opposition the country desperately needs.

He  is expected to say:

My argument today is simple: Our country cannot thrive without a strong economy. We can’t have a strong economy and a hard Brexit.

Theresa May alone is responsible for pursuing this course. It is already hurting the very people who need most help in society. So the question in this election is this: who will hold Theresa May accountable for the economic harm she will inflict on Britain?

Judging by the reports of last week’s lunch between Jean-Claude Junker and the Prime Minister, the Conservatives are once again proving to be as incompetent in doing the right thing for the country as they are ruthless in chasing votes.

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Wera Hobhouse to fight Bath for the Lib Dems

Wera Hobhouse has been selected to fight Bath for the Liberal Democrats.

The candidate selected last year, Jay Risbridger, stepped down last week.

The BBC has the story:

Wera Hobhouse was selected by members during a lunchtime meeting at Bath City Football Club,

The seat is currently held by the Conservative MP Ben Howlett but was previously a Lib Dem stronghold, held by Don Foster for 23 years.

The original prospective parliamentary candidate, Jay Risbridger, picked last autumn, stood down last week due to family and work commitments.

Paul Strasburger, from the Lib Dems’s campaign in Bath, said: “It’s important to the party nationally because it’s a very winnable seat, and therefore it’s a central part of our desire to stop a Tory landslide.”

The Bath Chronicle quotes former Bristol West MP Stephen Williams:

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