Author Archives: Mark Pack

Mark was the Liberal Democrat Head of Innovations until June 2009 and is now at Blue Rubicon. He also lectures at City University and is co-author of 101 Ways To Win An Election. He blogs at www.markpack.org.uk and is on Twitter as @markpack. He likes chocolate. Lots of it.

Brown double-counts Iraq troop withdrawal figures

So, Gordon Brown proudly announces that 1,000 troops are to be withdrawn from Iraq.

The BBC headlines the story “UK troops in Basra cut by 1,000”.

Job done? Well, one small problem. You see, Brown might say “1,000” and the BBC might report “1,000” but you know what? 500 of those troops were already coming home anyway. So it’d more be a matter of “Brown announces withdrawal of 500 troops and then adds in 500 more in the hope that no-one would remember that was already happening anyway”.

As Ming Campbell says:

“Any troop withdrawal from Iraq is welcome, but this is a cynical …

Posted in News | 3 Comments

What Conservative HQ staff think of Osborne’s tax plans

So, George Osborne wants to change the tax arrangements of non-domiciled residents.

Bit of a problem really that CCHQ staff think the following then:

A change in the tax status of non-domiciled resident individuals will devastate the London shipping business centred on the Baltic Exchange, cost thousands of City jobs, destroy London’s position as the international centre for shipping, undermine its ability to attract key foreign personnel in all its other areas of activity and result in a lower, not a higher, tax take for the Exchequer.

And who is it that thinks that? Well, it’s a quote from the Evening Standard approvingly …

Posted in News | Tagged | 20 Comments

The Eastbourne Conservative barchart challenge

The 2005 general election and 2007 local elections in Eastbourne were Conservative-Liberal Democrat fights (score so far: 1 Conservative MP, 1 Lib Dem run council). So anyone care to speculate where this barchart, which graces the latest Conservative leaflet comes from?

Eastbourne Conservative barchart

I await with eager anticipation the usual cries of outrage from the Conservative / Labour (delete as appropriate) hacks who of course believe 100% that they are perfect and it’s absolutely outrageous for anyone to criticise them and anyway, don’t you know that David Lloyd George …

Posted in News | 11 Comments

James Purnell: the hole gets deeper

Liberal Democrat Voice reported previously on the little local photoshopping trouble Labour minister James Purnell has run into (and which is the cause of this outbreak of photos around the internet).

In brief: he turned up late for a visit with three other MPs to the Tameside General Hospital. However, when the photo of the visit was published, all four MPs were there, standing next to each other.

The MP and the hospital have since given slightly – but perhaps very significantly – different versions of events. As the BBC reported:

A statement from the hospital trust appeared to

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Has Grant Shapps been coaching Caroline Spelman?

I only ask, because Caroline Spelman has just been on News 24 claiming the Conservatives won eight of the last nine by-elections held on Thursday.

One small problem.

They didn’t.

Make that two, rather than eight.

Another one to add to the list of untrue comments made to the media by the Conservatives (who have, of course, also admitted that you can’t believe what their own candidates say).

Posted in News | Tagged | 1 Comment

Council by-elections: what’s been going on?

Over the last six weeks there have been twenty council by-elections in the key Westminster constituencies* for the next general election. Looking at these twenty results provides a much more useful story of what is happening in the areas which really matter to each party than overall council by-election results.

What story do they tell?

Good news for the Liberal Democrats in the Lib Dem – Tory battleground seats: an average swing of 7.1% swing from Tory to Lib Dem with a net gain of one for the Lib Dems in the four contests.

Good news for the Liberal Democrats in the Lib …

Posted in News | 7 Comments

The fake Labour bar chart: coming soon to a letterbox near you

At their party conference, Labour were distributing various nationally produced full colour leaflets for local use. One of them – about crime – includes a bar chart.

“Ah,” I hear some of you say, “but how can a national leaflet contain an accurate and reasonable bar chart for use locally?”

“Oh, that’s easy,” I hear some of  you say, “it’d be a national bar chart, won’t it? Perhaps the number of MPs in Parliament? That would be same wherever the leaflet goes out.”

Well – that would be a decent excuse. Except that here’s the bar chart which the leaflet contains: 

Posted in News | 15 Comments

The perils of making forecasts based on opinion polls

Ooops.

Posted in Polls | Leave a comment

Iain Dale gets it wrong, yawn yawn

Says Iain Dale of Liberal Democrat Voice: “Mark Pack, a senior LibDem employee writing the majority of the posts”.

So at a guess, what proportion of, let’s say, the last hundred posts have I written?

Oh, that would be 10%. Not even the most enthusiastic bar chart drawer could claim 10% is a majority 🙂

UPDATE: Iain has corrected his piece; thanks Iain!

Posted in Online politics | Tagged | 3 Comments

How Cameron has collapsed in the polls

Opinion poll graph: Labour lead

Source: Labour minus Conservative minus Labour monthly average in all published opinion polls with national voting intention questions.

Posted in Polls | 5 Comments

Daily Telegraph fails to report its own poll accurately – again

Crikey, there must be a curse on reports of YouGov polls.

After this week’s Guardian blunder (saying that a YouGov poll showed the Liberal Democrat rating falling when, err…, it hadn’t) the Guardian at least had the excuse that it wasn’t its own poll that it was reporting. Credit though for correcting it the following day.

So full marks in the irony department to the Daily Telegraph for managing to muck up another YouGov poll report – though this time it is their own poll they’ve got wrong!

They have a new YouGov poll out tomorrow. It shows the Liberal Democrats up by two …

Posted in Polls | 2 Comments

Miranda Grell: the verdict is in

Waltham Forest Labour councillor Miranda Grell has been found guilty of falsely smearing her Liberal Democrat opponent in the 2006 elections as a paedophile. She has been fined £1,000, ordered to pay £3,000 in costs and banned from public office for three years.

Posted in News | Tagged | 46 Comments

Have you got what it takes to be a top-flight political pundit?

Nine out of the last ten opinion polls have shown the Liberal Democrats support to be either the same or higher than the previous poll by that polling company.

Does this mean:

a. That the Liberal Democrats are on the slide into total oblivion with every single member of the party taking every waking moment to talk about the leadership, or

b. Something else.

If you think (a), congratulations. Award yourself a job on a newspaper or news show of your choice. If (b), sorry – try again next time.

PS If you’re a Guardian reader you may be confused by this claim as they …

Posted in News | 3 Comments

Hello Guardian journalists, could you pay attention for a moment please?

Please, please, could you just make this the last time you use the wrong logo for the Liberal Democrats?

In case you are in any doubt – the logo you keep on using is WRONG. As in, it is NOT THE RIGHT ONE. I mean, even manages to get it right whilst the Guardian gets it WRONG. Again and again – even though you’ve managed to switch to using the new Labour and Tory logos.

PS Could you use the right one next time? Please?

Posted in News | 18 Comments

Labour point both ways in Rochdale

Labour’s Rochdale candidate – Simon Danczuk – has just done a leaflet opposing the idea of fortnightly weekly rubbish collections. He thinks it is a “crazy idea”.

Only one slight problem. Can you guess the connection between the man who is his election agent and the man who was leader of the council when the decision to introduce fortnightly collections was made?

Yup, there are one and the same. So he’s campaigning against something his very own agent introduced. Oops.

Posted in News | 4 Comments

London Mayor shortlist published

The Liberal Democrats have just announced their shortlist for London Mayor. The final choice will be made by party members in London in a postal ballot.

The people are:

  • Chamali Fernando
  • Fiyaz Mughal
  • Brian Paddick
  • More details, including hustings, over at the party’s website.

    Posted in Selection news | Tagged | 26 Comments

    Another day, another two Tory policy review blunders

    You’d have thought that by now that someone in the Conservative Party might have learnt to check their policy review documents carefully before printing them. I mean, how embarrassing is it to publish a document that points four different contradictory ways on the same policy, be caught out using ten years old data or propose a new law that is, er…, already about to come into force anyway?

    Well, they’ve done it again. And again. Not one but two more blunders.

    Blunder one – following from their triumphant success of proposing a change in the legal age of smoking which is …

    Posted in News | 4 Comments

    Have you seen a stranger page 3 in a political party’s policy document?

    Reading Conservative policy documents seems to be getting a bit of a hobby of mine. It certainly has its highlights (such as the bit calling for a policy that, er…, is already happening, the spectacularly ill-timed mortgage policy, the lopsided priorities for tax cuts, the policy that ends up requiring MPs to be opted out of the Freedom of Information Act after all, the ten years out of date figures and the impressive ability to point four different ways on the same policy point).

    And now I can unveil … the strange case of page three.

    Posted in News | Leave a comment

    Conservative Press Office gets it wrong, again

    If your political party launches its first entirely online advertising campaign several years after another party first did the same, do you:

    a. Claim you are first anyway and hope no-one notices?, or
    b. Something else

    If your answer is (a), congratulations – you work for the Conservative Party. And well done on finally catching up with what the Liberal Democrats have been doing with advertising for several years 🙂

    (Insert outrage about PR, spin, fibs, dishonesty etc. to your taste here).

    PS I wonder if the person who decided to claim they are first when they’re not is the same person who decided …

    Posted in Online politics | 6 Comments

    Another Conservative policy review blunder

    You’d have thought managing to flip flop between four different positions on the same policy point in one document, or perhaps using data ten years out of date, would be hard to top, but the Conservative Party’s policy review process has now managed to top even its previous incompetence.

    As Gavin Whenman has spotted:

    Michael Ancram’s swipe at David Cameron has kind of buried today’s publication of the Tory’s Public Services Improvement Policy Group’s report, but it is worth our attention:

    “Proposal 20 – We propose that the next Conservative government should consult on raising

    Posted in News | 2 Comments

    When does weekly mean fortnightly?

    What the Conservatives said in Guildford before the local elections:

    Guildford Conservatives have pledged to keep weekly refuse collection.

    And I think you can guess what they’ve decided to do now the elections are over, can’t you? Yup, here it is in all its glory:

    Fortnightly waste collections waiting in the wings

    AROUND 1,800 Guildford households having all recyclable rubbish – including leftover food – collected weekly from their doorsteps will have the rest of their waste picked up fortnightly.

    Posted in News | 12 Comments

    Conservative Deputy Treasurer quits

    Johan Eliasch doesn’t like the recent Conservative lurch to the right and is quitting.

    Hat tip: Benedict Brogan.

    UPDATE: The Times now has more on the story:

    After a week in which Mr Cameron took fresh hardline positions on crime and immigration, sources close to Mr Eliasch told The Times that he was upset that Mr Cameron was taking his party to the Right at a time when it should be focusing on capturing the centre ground … “Changing direction in mid-course is a mistake,” a source close to Mr Eliasch said. An added headache for the Tory leadership is that

    Posted in News | Leave a comment

    Could Britain be carbon neutral by 2050?

    That’s the ambitious plan proposal launched by Ming Campbell today and set to be debated at the party’s autumn conference next month.

    Full details of the plan, along with the document to be debated at conference, are over on the Liberal Democrat website.

    Posted in News | 19 Comments

    Why is Michael Ashcroft considered an election winning expert?

    Lord Ashcroft, the controverisal former Conservative Treasurer and now Deputy Chairman, is back in the news again. Over the weekend, the Daily Mail ran a piece about internal Conservative disagrements over his role and there’s been plenty of criticism of him on Conservative Home, some of which made The Guardian.

    Defenders of Ashcroft essentially say: he knows what it takes to win elections so having Ashcroft in charge and the serial losers being given the push is a good thing.

    But how good is Ashcroft?

    Well, here’s his own account of his record supporting target seats at the 2005 general election:

    The

    Posted in News | Tagged and | 3 Comments

    What would you do if…

    … you see worldwide financial and economic problems triggered by a poorly regulated sector of the US economy?

    a) Propose to scrap all the regulations in the same sector of the UK economy?
    b) Do something else?

    If your answer was (a), congratulations – you too are John Redwood.

    Yes, I’ve been reading once more the Conservative Party policy proposals he and his group came up with.

    This time, please turn to page 60:

    Mortgage Regulation. We see no need to continue to regulate the provision of mortgage finance, as it is the lending institutions rather than the client taking the risk.

    10 …

    Posted in News | 10 Comments

    Hello Conservatives?

    Ah, it’s started up again 🙂

    By which I mean comments appearing on this site which have all the following in common:

    1. First time comment from someone
    2. Minimal name information given
    3. Person uses “us” or similar phrases to talk about the Liberal Democrats
    4. Person says the party is heading for disaster, eats babies and doesn’t know how to make chocolate cake (I paraphrase slightly)
    5. Person’s comments echo remarkably what Conservatives are saying

    So I’ve had a bit of a clear out. If by mistake I’ve zapped a comment from you by mistake apologies – just get in touch to let me know. Oh, and if you are …

    Posted in Site news | 10 Comments

    What should be done about illegal immigrants in the UK?

    Nick Clegg and Simon Hughes had an article in Liberator magazine recently outlining the policy proposals they will be putting to the party’s autumn conference. That article is online, and there is also a flavour of the plans in today’s Independent:

    Up to 600,000 illegal immigrants should be given the right to “earn” full citizenship, the Liberal Democrats said yesterday. It is the first major party to lean towards advocating an amnesty for such migrants.

    Nick Clegg, the party’s home affairs spokesman, said a route to citizenship was the only way to deal with people who may have been in

    Posted in News | 15 Comments

    Three cheers for Mrs Sarkozy

    Cecilia Sarkozy, the wife of the French President, has been back in the news over her involvement in the release by Libya of the Bulgarian nurses it was holding. There have been calls for her to testify before a Parliamentary inquiry into the affair.

    But the coverage has reminded me of her so-called gaffe at the June G8 summit where she missed the official dinner for spouses because she wanted to fly back early to prepare for her daughter’s birthday party.

    There is something very wrong with the worlds of politics and media where putting your daughter’s birthday party ahead of a …

    Posted in News | Tagged | 2 Comments

    Tory tax priorities: cuts for the richest, please

    Back to my favourite Conservative Party policy document, the one from John Redwood and co. Having covered its impressive ability to squeeze four different, contradictory proposals on data protection into the same document, not to mention its use of figures that are a decade out of date, it’s on to taxation this time.

    Chapter 10, section 6, pages 82-3 is the list of proposals. And what do we find?

    Posted in News | 22 Comments

    Eight reasons for Gordon Brown to be worried

    Ipsos MORI has recently published a couple of books about Britain after Blair’s ten years. One of them recounts what happened to long-serving Prime Ministers’ previous successors:

    Before Tony Blair, only seven men and one woman have previously held office as British Prime Minister for ten years or more (Robert Walpole, Henry Pelham, Lord North, William Pitt the Younger, the Earl of Liverpool, William Gladstone, the Marquess of Salisbury and Margaret Thatcher); they include some of our history’s most distinguished leaders. The worry for Gordon Brown is that their successors have been less conspicuously successful.

    John Major’s premiership is a recent

    Posted in News | Tagged | 1 Comment
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