Author Archives: Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Zelensky’s Options

By Tom Arms | Sat 22nd February 2025 - 9:40 am

Volodomyr Zelensky has had a tough job since February 2022. And since the election of Donald Trump it has become a whole lot tougher.

In just the past ten days the American president and his acolytes have gone over his head and behind his back to negotiate directly with Russia’s Vladimir Putin; accused Zelensky of being a dictator; demanded virtual total control of the Ukrainian economy; ruled out Ukrainian membership of NATO and the return of territory; accused Ukraine of starting the war and undermined negotiations by announcing that Russia “holds the cards.”

Trump has also damaged relations with NATO allies by cutting them out of any negotiations about Ukraine’s future, despite the fact that Ukraine is in Europe and the Europeans have contributed more to its defense then the US.

But hold on. Zelensky and his European allies have a few cards of their own.

The biggest ones involve cash. Russia is spending and leaking money and earning less and less while its bills pending pile grows bigger and bigger.

Let’s start with its Sovereign Wealth Fund (aka National Wealth Fund or NWF). This has been the main source of ready cash for Putin’s “special military operation.” In January 2022, the NWF coffers held $210 billion. At the start of this year, the fund had dwindled to $116 billion. But wait, it’s even worse than that. Almost all of the war spending comes from liquid reserves which have shrunk more than 75 percent from $130 billion to $40 billion.

At the current rate of spending, Putin will run out of liquid cash in less than a year. His borrowing options are limited. The IMF and World Bank are out of the question, as are western commercial banks. This leaves the Chinese who would doubtless drive a hard bargain.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged featured and ukraine | 11 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 16th February 2025 - 9:39 am

United States

It is becoming increasingly clear that the only thing standing between Trump and unfettered power is the American judicial system.

His spineless acolytes in the Republican Party control both houses of Congress and the geriatric Democratic Party appears to be sinking under a sea of Executive Orders.

The courts, however, have acted. So far they have ordered the administration to lift its funding freeze on USAID and the salaries of thousands of federal employees.

The question now is: What will Trump do? Legally, he should abide by the court’s ruling and—if he is determined to get his way—appeal all the way to the Supreme Court, where, he hopes, the 6-3 conservative majority will rule in his favour.

But that is not Trump’s way, and Supreme Court support is not a given.

The signs are that Trump will simply ignore the court rulings and either carry on and appeal or—even more likely—carry on and not bother to appeal. If he takes either approach Donald Trump will have created a major constitutional crisis.

The power of the judicial system relies on the two other branches of government respecting and accepting the court’s judgements. It is called checks and balances and THE RULE OF LAW.

There is nothing in the US constitution which gives enforcement powers to the judiciary—except the legal principle of contempt of court. If Donald Trump ignores court rulings then he can be held in contempt and detained or fined until such time as he “purges the contempt.”

This is not a criminal law. It is not a civil law. It is the only weapon that the courts have to enforce their judgements. It was used against Trump in 2022 when he was fined $10,000 a day for failing to provide subpoenaed documents in his fraud trial.

The same law could also be applied to Elon Musk and his DOGE team.

A person cannot be pardoned for contempt of court. The Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity does not apply to contempt of court. So, where is the brave judge willing to take on Donald Trump, Elon Musk and the MAGA crowd?

Germany

As Germany’s federal election approaches the two front runners—the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Alternativ fur Deutschland (AfD) are battling for the young men’s vote.

Increasingly it is the 18-30-year-old men who are playing the kingmaker’s role in Western democracies. And they are swinging further and further to the right.

In the 2024 British general election, young men played a vital role in winning five parliamentary seats for Reform. 12.9 percent of men aged 18 to 30 voted Reform compared to just 5.9 percent of the women.

In the States it was disgruntled young men who dunnit for Trump. Sixty percent of the young male vote opted for Donald Trump, according to an Associated Press survey. Trump attracted only 20 percent of the women in the same age group.

Trump was especially popular with poorly educated young white men, but he also won half of the young male Latino vote and a third of the African-American young men.

In Germany the young male vote played a major role in the AfD winning 16 percent of the vote in the European elections and 31 percent of the vote in elections in Saxony and Brandenburg.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged austria, germany, turkey and United states of America | 13 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Ukraine – Europe Missed A Trick

By Tom Arms | Fri 14th February 2025 - 7:38 pm

Europe has missed a trick. Ukraine was primarily a European problem. Russia was threatening European security, and by extension, the NATO alliance as a whole. But to most Americans the war in Ukraine, as Neville Chamberlain said in 1938 about Czechoslovakia—“is a quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom we know nothing.”

But America coughed up billions. That is not to say that European countries—including the UK—have not dug deep. Since 2022 Europe has given slightly more than the US – $65.9 billion compared to $65 billion from Washington. Another $8.59 billion has come from non-European countries Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

But the Biden Administration was far and away the single biggest contributor propping up Ukraine. With Trump in the White House that prop is likely to be kicked away—possibly as soon as this weekend’s Munich Security Conference.

Europeans admit that their over-reliance on the American military umbrella has made them complacent about their security. Since the end of the Cold War defense budgets have shrunk to a shadow of their former selves. Germany, for instance was in 1985 spending 2.87 percent of its GDP on defense. When Russia invaded Ukraine the figure had been cut by more than half to 1.33 percent.

Budget cuts meant cuts in troop numbers. 478,000 (1985 figure) in Germany to 183,000 in 2022. Britain went from 334,000 to 153,000 over the same period.

But more importantly was a drop in investment in defense industries. Troop levels can be boosted relatively easily. But researching the latest weapons, building a factory and assembly line and starting production takes time. 1985 figures for European investment in defense industries are difficult to find, but since the invasion of Ukraine there is a clear recognition that it was not enough. In 2021 the figure was $222 billion and in 2024 it had jumped to $330 billion.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged ukraine and United states of America | 41 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 9th February 2025 - 8:30 am

Germany

Germany’s Friedrich Merz is gambling big. The leader of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is gambling with the upcoming elections, his political career, his country’s future and Europe’s future.

He is gambling that by opening—ever so slightly—the door to the German far-right that he will be able to slam it shut again after winning elections on February 23.

Ever since the end of the Second World War the mainstream political parties have maintained a firewall (or “Brandmauer”) between themselves and any far-right, neo-Nazi party that might undermine the political consensus that Germany maintain a sense of contrition for its Nazi past.

In recent years that has meant no coalitions, no deals, no talk of parliamentary support with the far-right Alternative for Deutschland (AfD).

Merz blew a hole in the Brandmauer at the end of January when he used AfD votes in the Bundestag to push through the first reading of an anti-immigration bill. The “Influx Limitation Law” would have tightened existing immigration laws and grant police powers to detain people due for deportation and to deport immigrants at the border.”

The move provoked a stern protest from Merz’s predecessor, elder statesperson Angela Merkel. “I consider it wrong,” she said in a statement, “to abandon this commitment (the firewall) and, as a result to knowingly allow a majority vote with AfD votes in the Bundestag for the first time.”

The vote also sparked off a series of anti-AfD and pro-immigration demonstrations over the weekend.

The result was defeat for the bill at its second reading this week as 12 members of Merz’s own party voted against him.

Merz was unrepentant and has vowed even tougher anti-immigration laws if he wins the election. At the moment his party is predicted to win 30 percent of the vote. The AfD is projected to secure the number two slot with 20 percent of the vote while the opposition coalition of the Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals is likely to come in third with 29 percent.

Merz is gambling that his politics will steal some of the AfD’s far-right clothes and push up his share of the vote. But he also risks losing the centrist votes that were secured by Angela Merkel’s moderate positions. And his defeat at the second reading undermines Merz’s leadership of the CDU and runs the risk of pushing Germans concerned about immigrants into the arms of the AfD.

Europe

“Europe,” Trump recently warned, “you are next.”

The newly-elected American president was referring to those “lovely, lovely tariffs” that he is imposing left, right and centre, especially on those who dare to disagree with him.

Trump has never liked the EU. With half a billion reasonably well-off people, it is the world’s largest trading bloc, and trading bloc’s exist to protect the economic interests of their members, and they use the leverage that their size gives them to negotiate the best possible trading terms.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged donald trump, european union, germany and ukraine | 7 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Death of the Two-State Solution

By Tom Arms | Sat 8th February 2025 - 9:51 am

The two-state solution is dead. Or, at the very least, it has been reduced to the one and a half state solution. But then the other Palestinian half is likely to be killed off in the next few weeks.

The concept of a Jewish and Palestinian state living side by side cannot work without American backing. No other state has the international clout or sufficient leverage over Israel.

The Palestinian state was envisaged as existing in two distinct halves—the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Donald Trump’s proposal that the US take control of Gaza, move out all the Palestinians, bulldoze it and turn Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East” means that the US has in one press conference eliminated the Gazan half from the political equation.

The other half is expected to soon follow suit. Trump has promised a statement on the West Bank “in a matter of weeks.” In his first term he declared Israeli settlement was no longer—in his opinion—a breach of international law. He also recognised Jerusalem—which is part of the West Bank—as the capital of Israel. In his second term he quickly lifted Biden-imposed sanctions on violent Israeli West Bank settlers.

It is extremely likely that he will announce approval of Benjamin Netanyahu’s long-held wish to annex the West Bank. That means an estimated 5 million Palestinians would be forced out of their homes. Where do they go?

“They should go to new homes,” said President Trump. “Someplace where they live and not die.” Specifically, the president has suggested Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and possibly Saudi Arabia. They have all responded with an emphatic: “No way!!!”

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged donald trump, gaza and israel | 17 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 2nd February 2025 - 10:43 am

United States

Lost in the blizzard of President Trump’s presidential decrees was the throwaway line that he plans to build an Israeli-style “iron dome” over the United States.

There are problems with such an ambition. For a start, the United States is 50 times bigger than Israel. Next problem is that Israel’s iron dome protects against drones, artillery attacks and short to intermediate-range missiles. Any American system would have to add long-range hypersonic intercontinental ballistic missiles to that list.

Next is the cost. Israel’s iron dome is estimated to cost $4-5 billion a year. Using the same technology, an American iron dome would cost about $120 billion. At the moment America’s entire missile defense budget is $29 billion and the total defense budget for 2025 is projected to be $852.3 billion.

The above figures are for a ground and sea-based iron dome. One of Trump’s greatest first-term boasts was the creation of the US Space Force (USSF). The force is 8,400-strong and under the command of General John Raymond. It would seem likely that Trump would want his USSF to at least contribute to the proposed iron dome.

This would involve basing satellites in space which would be armed with laser guns and kinetic missiles. There would also have to be a huge fleet of satellites based over enemy territory to spot missile launches. The advantage of a space-based system would be that the missiles could be intercepted before they reach US territory.

The disadvantages are that it would likely be construed as a breach of the 1967 UN treaty on Outer Space which prohibits the basing or use of nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction in space. There is also the problem of the price tag—an estimated $1 trillion.

But a space-based system cannot do the job alone. Some missiles will inevitably sneak past the laser guns. For protection against them there will need to be a complementary ground-based system as well.

Gaza

Trump is nothing if not stubborn. You could also say obstinate, inflexible, mulish, or, if you want to be kind, persistent.

His suggestion that the Gazan Palestinians be relocated in brand new homes somewhere in Jordan and/or Egypt is the latest manifestation of the first administration’s “Peace to Prosperity” programme which was negotiated by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

Kushner’s January 2020 plan did not explicitly call for the resettlement of Palestinians. But it hinted that the US would provide financial incentives for them to move– $50 billion over ten years. But where? Kushner privately proposed Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon. But before publishing those thoughts he contacted the leaders of those countries and was told: “No way!!!”

Resettlement of Palestinian refugees is not a new idea. It is, literally, as old as the founding of the modern state of Israel. David Ben-Gurion proposed it almost as soon as the Israeli flag was first raised. Others who have resurrected it periodically over the past 76 years include: John Foster Dulles, John Bolton, Ariel Sharon, Leader of Lebanon’s Phalange Party Bashir Gemayel, Menahem Begin, Benjamin Netanyahu, all of Israeli’s far-right religious leaders and even an Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Said.

Each time the suggestion has been raised it has been knocked down by the Palestinians and the wider Arab world. For them it has always been a non-starter

Jordan has historically been touted as the most likely home for resettled Palestinians. This is because the British Mandate included the present-day Jordan and Israel. After the 1948 war a number of Palestinian refugees fled to Jordan and were granted Jordanian citizenship. Currently about 50-70 percent of Jordan’s citizens are classified as Palestinian. But problems arose in the late 1960’s when the PLO used Jordan as its main base for guerrilla attacks on Israel. The Israelis responded in kind.

The result was that in 190-71, Jordan’s King Hussein expelled the PLO in what became known as “Black September.” Palestinians are welcome in Jordan, but not those that would antagonise Israel as many who are currently in Gaza and the West Bank might do.

As for those in Gaza and the West Bank, their views were forcefully expressed, by displaced Gazan Abu Yahya Rashid. “We are the ones who decide our fate and what we want,” he said. “This land is ours and the property of our ancestors throughout history. We will not leave it accept as corpses.”

Palestinians and Gazans are holding out for the two-state solution. Once again, Trump is consistent—this time in his opposition to what every other western country supports. The 2020 Peace to Prosperity plan proposed only a fragmented Palestinian state with limited sovereignty. The Palestinians rejected it. Mike Huckabee, Trump’s newly-appointed evangelical ambassador to Israel, has taken a step further than Kushner. “There will never,” he insisted, “be a Palestinian state.”

United States air crash

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged gaza, palestine and United states of America | 5 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Millions May Die

By Tom Arms | Sat 1st February 2025 - 9:37 am

Trump’s 90-day freeze on foreign aid could be the precursor to the collapse of the UN, its corollary agencies, the World Bank, the IMF and the entire post-World War Two international order. These are not my words. They come from Sir Myles Wickstead, Britain’s leading expert on development issues whom I spoke to on Friday.

“The whole international system,” said Sir Myles, “depends on each country paying its fair share based on their national income. If a major player like the US pulls out the entire edifice is endangered.”

He also said that many would die as an immediate result of the freeze and thousands of aid workers would lose their jobs, which would have an impact on distribution in the future even if there are no long-term cuts. “Philanthropic organisations such as the Gates Foundation will be able to fill some of the gaps,” said Sir Myles, “but they have only a fraction of the money available to the US government.”

The United States is the world’s largest contributor to international development aid. In 2023 it provided $73 billion in foreign aid—more than twice as much as the next biggest contributor—the EU at $35 billion. Germany was third at £32 billion, followed by Japan $28 billion and the UK (which reduced its foreign budget from 0.7 percent of GDP to 0.5 percent).

The American freeze and anticipated cut is expected to have an especially disastrous effect on Sub Saharan Africa. More than half a dozen countries rely on development aid—mainly American—for half of their GDP. It makes up 20 per cent for more for another dozen. All 54 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa receive proportion of their income in aid.

American aid has been especially important in combatting HIV/AIDS around the world through its PEPFAR programme. It is reckoned that PEPFAR has saved 25 million lives since it was initiated in 2003. A government spokesman for South Africa, where 19 per cent of 14 to 49-year-olds suffer from HIV/AIDS, said: “Millions may die as a result of this freeze. Patients need to receive their treatments on a regular basis. If they don’t they could die. And heavens knows what will happen if there is a permanent cut.”

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged United states of America and USAID | 6 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 26th January 2025 - 10:07 am

United States

A stroke of the pen is not enough to end America’s birth right citizenship laws. Donald Trump has so many more political and legal mountains to climb before his presidential decree can take effect.

First there is the law. Already 24 Democratic states have launched lawsuits opposing Trump’s sudden end to birth right citizenship.

They are on firm ground. The Fourteenth Amendment of the US constitution says: “All persons born…in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.”

Trump claims that birth right citizenship has never challenged in the courts. That is wrong. In the …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged india, ukraine, United states of America and Venezuela | 14 Comments

Observations of an Expat: And So It Begins

By Tom Arms | Sat 25th January 2025 - 8:58 am

At the end of the first week of Trump 2.0 the world is left shell-shocked trying to find a way through an artillery barrage of presidential decrees.

He promised the decrees. He promised action. He didn’t lie. Not enough people believed him.

In less than a week Trump has—among other things—announced that he is going to end the right of citizenship for those born in the United States; closed America’s southern border and dispatched the army to help guard it.

Because Trump clashed with Anthony Fauci—the man who coordinated America’s response to covid—he has ordered that the websites for the National Institute for Health, Centre for Disease Control and Federal Drug Administration to stop issuing health advisories.

Department of Justice lawyers who worked on his prosecution plus the DoJ’s International Division and Criminal Division, are to be sacked and replaced with MAGA loyalists

Federal employees have been told that they will suffer “adverse consequences” if they refuse to turn in colleagues who “defy orders to purge” their departments of diversity, equity and inclusion measures and personnel.

The Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act were signature achievements of the Biden Administration and universally welcomed by the American business community. But they were Biden’s. Trump has scrapped them at the cost of tens of billions of dollars.

Tariffs have yet to be imposed. They are slated to be slapped on Canada and Mexico—at the 25 percent level—from 1 February. On Thursday Trump told the Davos Economic Forum that unless foreign companies moved their businesses to America they would suffer “trillions of dollars in tariffs.”

But perhaps the most disturbing of Trump’s decrees was the 1,500 pardons for the January 6 Capitol Hill riots. Not even his own vice president—JD Vance—thought he would go that far.

The Fraternal Order of Police—America’s largest police union, asked: “What happened to Republican Law and Order? This completely undermines the rule of law and is a stain on Trump’s legacy.”

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged donald trump | 16 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 19th January 2025 - 9:41 am

United States

Trump’s run of good luck continues. It seems likely that all but one of his cabinet nominations will be confirmed by the Senate. Congressman Matt Gaetz was the longest of long shots for Attorney General. The Ethics Committee investigation into his drug-fuelled sex antics ruled him out.

Fox News presenter Pete Hesgeth was also expected to fail in his bid to become America’s next Secretary of Defense. A seedy past and lack of experience worked against him. But Hesgeth put up a good show against tough questioning from the Democratic members of the Senate Armed Services Committee. There is nothing the Republican senators like more than a conservative who successfully fights his corner. He is expected to be confirmed on Tuesday.

The same with Pam Bondi who replaced Matt Gaetz as Trump’s choice for Attorney General. Ms Bondi sort of mollified senators when she denied that there was a “enemies list” compiled of people Trump wants prosecuted. But she then qualified this by refusing to rule out taking action against Jack Smith, the Special Prosecutor appointed to investigate the president-elect.

Smith, for his part, is clearly angry that he will not be able to drag Donald Trump into court. This week he released a partially redacted set of documents which clearly stated that if Trump had not been elected president he would be seeing his tailor for an orange onesie. The documents claimed that Trump was guilty of election interference, disrupting an official proceeding of Congress, stealing and hiding classified documents and, almost certainly, trying to overthrow the US government.

Jack Smith is, according to FBI nominee, Kash Patel, at the top of his “enemies list”. Patel has yet to be questioned by a Senate Committee, but he has publicly said that there is an enemy list. Patel, however, will be reporting to Pam Bondi.

Trump meanwhile has insisted that there is a “patriot’s list.” That is an unidentified number of people who were prosecuted for invading the Capitol Building on January 6, 2020. He has promised that he will pardon them. He does not need the assistance of Patel or Bondi to do so. He just needs a pen and paper.

Russia

They call it hybrid warfare. Russia is becoming a master practitioner across Europe and beyond. It involves, misinformation campaigns, cyberattacks espionage and sabotage of military facilities and critical infrastructure, damaging undersea pipelines and electricity cables and interfering in democratic elections.

This week Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that the Russians were even plotting to blow up airliners, “not just against Poland, but against airlines across the globe,” he insisted.

Meanwhile the German government this week ordered police and the air force to shoot down the growing number of drones flying over German and American military bases and critical infrastructure. The Interior Minister said they were suspected of sabotage and espionage.

But the most disturbing incidents have involved undersea cables and pipelines in the Baltic. They carry gas supplies, electricity, 95 percent of the internet traffic and $10 trillion worth of annual financial transactions.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged donald trump, india, NATO, russia, taliban and United states of America | 6 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Gaza Ceasefire

By Tom Arms | Sat 18th January 2025 - 9:34 am

They were celebrating in Gaza City when the ceasefire was announced on Wednesday. Men, women and children ran into the streets to shout, cry and pray.

Then the Israeli bombs started to fall again. 110 more Palestinians died. Shortly afterwards it was announced that a last-minute hiccup had delayed Israeli cabinet approval. Will the ceasefire hold?

The deal is the result of constant 24/7 negotiations brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the US. The bones of the agreement were announced by Biden in May. Benjamin Netanyahu, however, rejected it at the time.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden can both take a share of the credit. Biden for negotiating the deal and winning UN backing. Trump for saying he would back what Biden parleyed. It was a rare moment of cross-party foreign policy-making and undercut Netanyahu’s hopes of a better agreement from Donald Trump.

The ceasefire itself is in three clear phases. Phase one is due to start on Sunday and last six weeks. It involves the partial withdrawal of Israeli forces; an increased flow of humanitarian aid and the release of some Palestinian prisoners.

Phase two—also six weeks long—calls for the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. The return of all remaining live hostages and the release of more Palestinian prisoners and “the return to a sustainable calm.”

Phase three is the start of the reconstruction of Gaza. The return of the bodies of an estimated 32 dead hostages and the release of more Palestinian prisoners. The US, Egypt and Qatar are all committed to ensuring that both sides comply and that the ceasefire goes well beyond the first few months and becomes the basis of further agreements.

But there are a host of hurdles at which ceasefire could fall. Possibly the biggest is opposition from the Religious Zionist Party led by Finance Minister Ben Smotrich. He has said he would vote against the ceasefire unless there is a clear commitment to resume fighting once all the hostages are released. He said: “Our continued presence in the government depends on the absolute certainty of resuming the war with full force.”

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged gaza and israel | 12 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 12th January 2025 - 8:30 am

Why is Trump after Greenland?

Trump has three reasons for wanting to acquire Greenland:

The world’s largest island has substantial deposits of 43 out of 50 of the “rare earth” minerals.
It guards the eastern approach to the melting Northwest Passage
It straddles the route that Russian ballistic missiles would take in an attack on America’s East coast.

“Rare earth” minerals are essential to the building of batteries, computer chips and modern defense equipment. The country with the largest rare earth deposits is China. This makes Americans very nervous.

However, just because the minerals are there does not mean they can be easily extracted. Engineers have so far located 150 potential mining sites. But Arctic conditions, a labour shortage and the indigenous Innuits respect for their environment, means that after ten years, only one mine is operational.

In the early days of American exploration hundreds died searching for an ice-free passage through the Canadian Arctic linking Europe and Asia. Global warming means that within a few years ships will finally be breaking through the Northwest Passage. Greenland sits at the eastern end of what will become a major shipping lane.

It has long been recognised that the shortest route for Russian missiles attacking the US is over Greenland and Canada. That is why the US has established an early-warning system at Pituffik Space Base. Some 650 military personnel man radar systems and monitor space debris from their station 750 miles inside Greenland’s Arctic Circle.

But Trump does not need to own Greenland to place military bases there. The US has the right to build whatever military systems it requires under a 1951 treaty with the Danes, who are responsible for Greenland’s defence and foreign affairs. Trump can construct 50 more bases if he wants them.

However, it is also clear that ownership would give America greater control in other areas. It would, for instance, enable the US to introduce lax mining regulations in order to fully exploit the island’s untapped natural resources. This would, however, run counter to the daily lifestyle of the 57,000 Greenlanders who place a high premium on maintaining their unique – albeit cold – way of life.

Panama

American conservatives fought tooth and nail against relinquishing control of the Panama Canal. When the new revised treaty came before the Senate in 1977 it squeaked by with just one vote to spare.

It is not surprising therefore that ultra-conservative Donald Trump wants it back.

Unfortunately for the soon-to-be president, the reasons he has given for the re-acquisition range from outright lies to commercially dubious.

To start with, Trump says that the 50-miles of locks linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans is now occupied by Chinese troops. Thus America’s security is threatened. Next, is the claim that Panama is singling out American shipping and charging it unfair prices.

It is true that China has invested heavily in Panama since 2017 when the Panamanians switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to Mainland China. The Chinese have built bridges, a railway line and a cruise ship terminal. The Hong Kong-based company Hutchison Port Holdings has also secured the contract to manage terminal facilities at both ends of the canal.

But there are no Chinese soldiers in Panama. That is a lie. If there were troops that would be a casus belli for US intervention. Under the terms of the existing US-Panama treaty, America retains the right to intervene if its security interests are threatened.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged tom arms world review | 5 Comments

Observations of an ex pat: Deep state

By Tom Arms | Sat 11th January 2025 - 8:30 am

What is the “Deep State”? How will President Donald Trump dismantle it? And why is it more likely that he will end up re-constructing it with a deeper, more biased political complexion.

If you are Donald Trump and his supporters the deep state is a living, breathing conspiracy of liberals who thwart their ambitions and conservative beliefs of how America should be run.

The deep state are a swamp of the journalists, teachers, university professors, lawyers, judges, civil libertarians, civil servants and politicians who believe that Trump lost the 2020 election and should be held accountable for his many alleged crimes.

To Trump and his supporters the deep state is comprised of regulators who block libertarian-minded Republican businessmen from opening an open-cast mine in a national park. Or they are the petti-fogging bureaucrat who stops them from planting a vegetable patch in their front garden. In short, the enemies of the deep state are those who believe that the state has gone too far in encroaching on individual liberties.

Americans love to hark back to the free-wheeling early days of the Republic. In 1800 the ratio of un-elected federal and state employees to the population as a whole was 0.05 percent. In 2024 the proportion had increased five-fold.

There are good reasons for the multiplying civil service. Over the past 225 years the world has become more complex. Special interest groups have proliferated. Elected officials have passed millions of new laws which now require an army of civil servants to administer.

A series of surveys by Partnership for Public Service show that roughly 60 percent of those civil servants are Democrats as opposed to 45 percent in the population as a whole. They also donate to liberal causes, especially if they are involved in environmental protection, diplomacy, education, social services and civil rights—the areas where Trump wants the biggest cuts. The military, homeland security and immigration are largely immune from the Republican axe and enmity. Not surprisingly their ranks are disproportionately filled with conservative Republicans.

Posted in News | Tagged observations of an ex pat | 8 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Christmas Traditions

By Tom Arms | Sat 21st December 2024 - 9:23 am

Tis the season. Egg nog, mulled wine, presents, Christmas trees, yule logs, Christmas cards, Midnight Mass, food, food and more food…. The list goes on and on. The Holiday Season is one tradition after another.

In fact, you could call it the Tradition Season just as easily as the Christmas or Holiday Season. But when and where did the traditions start? Well, they came from all over the Western world and some of the Eastern. Some have deeply religious roots. Others tell a political story. Some are strictly secular money making operations.

There was a time when Christmas was banned. And then there is the controversy about the actual birthday. The Bible does not actually give a date for the birth of Jesus, but Biblical historians believe that references to shepherds sitting outdoors at night on hills indicates that it was in the spring.

Early Christians didn’t bother with celebrating the birth of Jesus. Birthday celebrations were considered a pagan tradition. They concentrated on Easter. But Pope Julius I saw an opportunity to pull in pagan converts by setting a date for the birth of Jesus that coincided with the “birthday” of the Roman gods Mithras and Sol Invictus (25 December).

The chosen day also coincided with the feast of Saturnalia when Romans decorated their homes with wreaths (which symbolised eternal life) and greenery, including trees. They also indulged in a week of constant partying and exchanged gifts. Sound familiar?

But other Christmas traditions go back further. Archaeologists have uncovered proof that Druids made extensive use of the parasitic mistletoe during winter solstice celebrations. They believed it encouraged fertility which of course led to the association with kissing, and we all know what kissing leads to.

The actual feasting element is believed to extend back to the start of farming in around 10,000 BCE. It was introduced for the eminently practical reason that farmers could not afford to feed their animals through the winter, so they ritually slaughtered them at the Winter Solstice and ate them.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged christmas | 3 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 15th December 2024 - 8:30 am

Trump vs FBI

Trump clashed with FBI director Christopher Wray from the start. So much so that he didn’t bother to turn up for his swearing-in ceremony in 2017.

Wray led the investigation into Russian collusion; refused to condemn his agents as products of the “deep state”; attacked the January 6 riots as “domestic terrorism” and started the probe into the Mar-a-lago documents case.

When Wray refused to do as ordered during the George Floyd riots, Trump tried to fire him. He was blocked by the Attorney General. “Over my dead body,” said Bill Barr.

This week Wray bowed to the inevitable and resigned three years before his term of office was due to expire. Trump and his MAGA-supporting Republican claimed that even though Trump appointed him, Wray was weaponisng America’s federal law enforcement agency against thim.

Kash Patel—the man who Trump wants to replace Wray—has served notice that that he wants to weaponise the FBI in the service of President Trump.

Patel is the fiercest of fierce critics of the FBI and the Department of Justice. The title of his book about the bureau speaks volumes: “Government Gangsters.”

In it he calls for the “eradication of government the tyrant” within the FBI by firing the top ranks.” More recently he has said that he wants to sack all but 50 of the agents in the bureau’s Washington office, which employs the bulk of the FBI’s 37,000 employees.

Patel is known for his blind loyalty the president-elect in a variety of offices ranging from the Pentagon, to the Department of Justice, to the National Security Council and various campaign positions. He does, however, break with a long-standing tradition of never having served in a senior position in the FBI.

Patel has promised Trump’s opponents: “We’re coming after the people in the media and the courts and the civil service and congress who have lied to American citizens; who helped Joe Biden to rig presidential elections…. We’re going to come after you whether its criminally or civilly. We’ll figure that out. But, yeah, we’re putting you all on notice.”

Kash Patel still has to be confirmed by the Senate. That confirmation is not a foregone conclusion, but It is becoming increasingly difficult for The Republican majority to keep rejecting Trump’s nominees.

Trump vs Canada

The master of the insult—Donald J. Trump—has struck again. This time his target is Canada and all things Canadian.

Posted in News | 8 Comments

Observations of an ex pat: Syrian Butterfly

By Tom Arms | Sat 14th December 2024 - 8:30 am

The Syrian butterfly has flapped its wings and created a political storm throughout the region and well beyond.

Russia has lost a Middle East foothold and global credibility but gained troops for its war in Ukraine. Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” has been reduced to dust. Hezollah has been cut off from its supplier.

All the Arab states will be pleased that the Persians have been humbled but will be worried that they have been backed into the nuclear corner.

China may be casting a covetous eye over the the vacuum left by a weakened Russia in Central Asia, Middle East and the south Caucasuses. Joe Biden sees an “historic opportunity.” Donald Trump sees an exit.

Israel sees an opportunity to expand its territory and influence, and a chance to remove both Iran and Syria as major foes.

Western intelligence chiefs have expressed concerns about an upsurge of Islamic violence in the West. Those fleeing Hayat Tahrir al- Sham (HTS) may increase the number of refugees heading West. But then the millions in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Europe may more than balance the books by starting a Great Return.

Turkey is chuffed that the organisation which they sheltered, HTS, in northwest Syria may now rule the rest of the country. This could increase their foothold in 100 square kilometres of Syrian territory and their suppression of Kurdish rebels. The Kurds are worried about the Turks, as are their Israeli and American backers.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged observations of an ex pat and syria | 4 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 8th December 2024 - 10:10 am

France and Germany

Europe is in political turmoil. The governments of the EU’s ideological and economic engines – France and Germany respectively – have collapsed.

Meanwhile Russia is advancing in the East and in the West Trump is retreating with a tariff-infested isolationist America First policy. To complicate matters further, Trump himself is unlikely to keep quiet when he visits France this weekend for the all-star reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.

At the heart of France’s problem is a three-way polarisation of French politics and a long-standing government tendency to pay more than it has. The centre-right guru of compromise, Michel Barnier was appointed Prime Minister, after parliamentary elections in the summer.

He failed to resolve either problem and a vote of no confidence brought about the collapse of his government on Wednesday. New parliamentary elections are the obvious answer. The problem is that under the constitution of the Fifth Republic there must be a gap of 12 months between National Assembly elections.

Which opens the question of whether President Emmanuel Macron himself should resign. So far, he has refused to consider it.

In the background is the fate of far-right National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen who is facing a five-year ban from politics for mis-use of EU funds. This would bar her from running for the presidency unless … Macron resigns. If he does presidential elections must be held within 30 days and Le Pen is rescued from the political wilderness.

Meanwhile, in Germany, Olof Scholz has failed to hold together his traffic-light coalition and called elections for February next year. The projected winners are this stage are the CDU/CSU coalition led by 69-year-old Friedrich Merz. Merz is pretty standard far-right. He is pro-EU, anti-Russian and pro-Ukraine.

The fly in the German electoral ointment is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) which is pro-Russian, anti-EU anti-Ukraine and vehemently anti-immigration. The AfD has been rising rapidly in the political stakes. It is based mainly in the former German Democratic Republic and is unlikely to win a majority, but it could end up the second biggest party in the Bundestag.

The problem is that the AfD is toxic. None of the established parties will form a coalition with it. Which means that the outcome is likely to be another shaky coalition just when Germany needs strong government. Not only is their threat of Russia, but the economy is in the doldrums as a result of its inability to compete with Chinese and American electric vehicles.

Its export problems are soon to be worsened by Trump’s tariffs. This in turn could drag East European economies from relative growth into recession. This in turn could increase its Euro-sceptic, pro-Russian leaders to turn away from the democratic institutions of the EU towards the more autocratic Russians and Chinese.

United States

It’s official – American’s legal system has been politicised and weaponised. Joe Biden’s decision to pardon his son Hunter was the final piece in this unfortunate jigsaw puzzle.

Some claim that America’s rule of law has already been hopelessly compromised. Either by years of corruption, questionable litiginous claims, a bloated legal profession, Donald Trump’s contempt for the law and Democrats’ use of the law to attack Trump.

It is true that New York’s conviction of Trump on business-related felony charges was questionable. Yes, he was guilty. But would he have been charged if he had not been Trump?

The Georgia state prosecution, and the two federal prosecutions – one of disappearing documents and the other for alleged insurrection – are of a much more serious nature. They involve nothing less than treason. With Trump’s election they will simply… disappear.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged france, germany, republic of ireland, south korea and united states | 8 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Middle East Whack-a-Mole

By Tom Arms | Sat 7th December 2024 - 9:35 am

The Middle East is very much like the fairground game whack-a-mole. You think you have solved your problems by knocking a mole on the head and another one of the pesky beasts pops up on the other side of the board.

Just as Israel and Washington thought they had Hezbollah and Iran on the back foot, an Islamic fundamentalist group has popped up to threaten Syria’s Assad regime. And, of course, the Gazan mole still has its head above the parapets – just.

The temptation is to raise a cheer for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Abu Muhammad Al-Jolani. They are, after all, now the main threat to the regime of Basahar-al Assad, one of the regime’s most brutal anti-Western dictators. They also pose the biggest danger to Russian and Iranian influence in the region.

But HTS are an internationally proscribed terrorist organisation with a reputation for brutal repression. They also want to create an Islamic state within Syria. The last thing the Middle East needs is another religiously-based government which derives its legitimacy from its relationship with an infallible Higher Being.

So, who is HTS and its leader? Why have they suddenly leapt into the world’s headlines? And, finally, what are their chances of toppling the Assad regime?

Al-Jolani himself is a shadowy figure. Even his birth date is unknown, although he is believed to be in his mid-forties and hails from Damascus where his parents still live. When the Syrian Civil War started with the 2011 Arab Spring, Al Jolani was associated with the Jihadist group Al Nusra which was the main Islamic opposition group opposing Assad in Aleppo and Syria’s northern Idlib region.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged israel and syria | 5 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 1st December 2024 - 9:21 am

Israel

Israel has won the war with Hezbollah. That is if the ceasefire recently announced takes effect as planned.

If Hezbollah has lost then so have backers Iran and the Palestinians in Gaza and on the West Bank. Hezbollah was the keystone in Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” It effectively turned Lebanon into a buffer state between Israel and Iran.

As for the Palestinians, the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah ordered the rocket attacks on northern Israel with the promise that they would continue until there was a ceasefire in Gaza.

The ceasefire agreement makes no mention of Gaza. Israeli forces continue to fight there. Benjamin Netanyahu has severed the link between Hezbollah and Gaza and between Iran and Gaza. This has in turn given him a free hand in dealing with the Palestinians both in Gaza and the West Bank.

He is further aided by the re-election of Donald Trump. The president-elect has been vague about his Middle East policy. He is known for his unpredictability. But the appointment of Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel provides some hints. Huckabee is opposed to the two-state solution and has hinted that he supports Israeli annexation of the West Bank and northern Gaza.

Surprisingly, opinion polls indicate that only about half of the Israeli population support the ceasefire agreement. Why is unclear.

The agreement says that Israeli and Hezbollah forces must withdraw from territory between the Israeli-Lebanese border and the Litani River which is roughly 30 miles north of Israel. Hezbollah would completely disarm. The buffer zone would be occupied by 10,000 UN troops and 10,000 troops from the official Lebanese army with financial backing from the US and France.

Israel cannot launch offensive operations against Lebanon, but it has the full backing of the US to launch “defensive” operations. “If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself,” said Netanyahu, “we will attack. If it tries to rebuild the terrorist infrastructure near the border we will attack. If it tries to launch a rocket. If it digs a tunnel. If it brings in a truck carrying a rocket, we will attack.”

Israel has clearly abandoned the search for a political resolution and put all of its hopes and dreams into the military option.

United States

The threatened 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada will hit them hard. Eighty percent of Canada’s exports are to the US. The same figure applies to Mexico.

But they will also damage the American economy. America needs Mexico’s $19 billion of machinery, electrical equipment and fruit and vegetables. About half of US fruit imports come from Mexico. And if you fancy avocados, 90 percent of America’s avocados are grown in Mexico.

Transferring that production to the U.S. would be difficult, especially since about half of the 2 million agricultural workers in the U.S. are undocumented Mexicans. At the moment they are protected by a visa system that gives legal status to agricultural workers. But Trump has vowed to end that which would seriously impact the $1.5 trillion American fruit and vegetable industry.

Undocumented workers also make up 60 percent of the work force of the construction companies in the southwest. One construction official complained that deporting them “would devastate our industry, we wouldn’t finish our highways, we wouldn’t finish our schools. New housing would simply disappear.”

Canada exports a wide range of products to the U.S., including up to 30 percent of the oil consumed by America. Refineries in the mid-west and Pacific Northwest are especially reliant on oil pipelines from Canada. GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, reckons that a 25% tax on Canadian crude oil would increase gas prices in the Midwest and the Rockies by 25 cents to 75 cents a gallon,

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged china, israel and united states | 11 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Fentanyl

By Tom Arms | Sat 30th November 2024 - 10:08 am

Fentanyl is a nasty synthetic opioid. It is 100 times more potent than heroin and 50 times more potent than morphine. It is, not surprisingly, also many times more addictive.

In 2023 an estimated 75,000 Americans died of fentanyl overdoses. As little as two milligrams of fentanyl—roughly equivalent to a few grains of salt—can kill you. A large number of the 2.5 million US opioid addicts are fentanyl users.

Because it is highly addictive, Fentanyl is replacing—some say has replaced—cocaine and heroin as the product of choice of the drug cartels. Heroin exports are also being laced with a grain or two of fentanyl to increase the user’s dependence on the drugs.

All of the above goes some of the way to explaining why President-elect Donald Trump has linked the totally separate issues of immigration and fentanyl exports and threatened to slap a 25 percent tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada and a 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports unless they close down the fentanyl-producing laboratories and the smuggling operations. Of course, life is never that simple.

Let’s start with Mexico. The Mexican drug cartels are the major culprits. In the first nine months of this year, US Customs seized 16,000 pounds of fentanyl at America’s southern border. That is 7.24 billion lethal doses.

The illicit trade is dominated by the Sinalo and Jalisco New Generation cartels. They have taken the billions they have earned from drugs to invest in mining, agriculture and, of course, political respectability. They have become an integral part of the Mexican business and political establishment with legal and illegal operations in 40 countries. They will be difficult to root out. To complicate matters they operate a franchise system so that each production and smuggling operation functions separately from the centre.

The Chinese were targeted by the Biden Administration, and since 2019 illegal exports of fentanyl to the US and to Mexico for transhipment to the US have dropped dramatically. But the chemical components that comprise the synthetic drug are still being shipped to Mexican Laboratories for assembly. As each of the components is completely legal it is difficult to prevent their production and export.

It is a bit of a mystery as to why Trump has included Canada on his list. In the first nine months of 2024 US Customs sized just 40 pounds of fentanyl heading south from America’s northern neighbour. It is also an enigma as to why Trump included Canada in his target list for illegal aliens. In 2023, US border control stopped 12,200 illegal aliens from crossing the US-Canada border. This compares to 2.48 million from Mexico. It is more likely that Trump is trying to undermine liberal icon Justin Trudeau before next year’s federal elections.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged canada, mexico and united states | 5 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 24th November 2024 - 10:41 am

COP 29

COP 29 is in trouble. It was inevitable. This year’s climate change conference is in oil-producing Baku, Azerbaijan, and host president Ilham Aliyev is using the conference to push oil and gas as “a gift from God.”

This is encouraging the Saudis who are working hard to strike the phrase “transition away from fossil fuels” from previously agreed communiques.

Then there is the question of the transfer of money from the developed to the developing world; partly to compensate them from the effects of climate change problems created by the industrial north and partly to help them transition away from fossil fuels to clean, green energy.

Previous communiques talked about $100 billion. Now it is generally agreed that $1.3 trillion is a more realistic figure. A big fine, global figure which is facing the problem of devilish detail. What for instance, constitutes a developing country. Officially Saudi Arabia, China and India are all developing countries. The Saudis are as rich as Croesus, China has the second largest economy in the world and India the fourth and will soon be third.

And how will this transfer of $1.3 trillion be organised? Will it be hand-outs which might well end up in some dictator’s Swiss bank account? Will private investments which can create a return for the Western investor be counted in the $1.3 trillion, or research and development grants? All this is being negotiated as I type and will probably be unresolved long after the conference ends.

In fact, the protracted negotiations are proving to be an insurmountable hurdle for the understaffed Azerbaijani diplomatic service. They have been forced to turn to the British and Brazilians to help sort out the muddle and—hopefully—produce a communique.

Any real progress is likely to have to wait until the next COP summit. But that is unlikely to achieve anything because the world’s second largest polluter and the world’s largest per capita—the United States—will not be attending. Donald Trump has promised to withdraw from the COP summits and “drill, baby, drill.”

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his sacked defense minister Yoav Gallant this week had arrest warrants issued for them by the International Criminal Court at The Hague. Hamas leader Mohammed Deif has also been charged but he is unlikely to ever appear in court simply because he has been killed by the Israeli Defense Forces.

There are 123 countries who are signatories to the ICC. This means, according to international law by which they have pledged to abide, if Netanyahu, Gallant or the ghost of Mohammed Deif, step on their territory, they must arrest them.

Britain and the Netherlands have confirmed that Netanyahu faces such a fate if he dares to visit them.

America has condemned the arrest warrants as “outrageous” and said that the Israelis are safe with them. Well, they have a legal out. The Clinton Administration signed up to the ICC and its obligations but George W. Bush “unsigned”, so the US is under no legal obligation to work with the court. Other countries which are not signatories are Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and China.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged benjamin netanyahu, cop 29, international criminal court, israel, saudi arabia and ukraine | 25 Comments

Observations of an Expat: One Down

By Tom Arms | Sat 23rd November 2024 - 9:36 am

One down. A lot more to go.

The infamous and totally unsuitable Matt Gaetz on Friday withdrew his name for consideration as Donald Trump’s Attorney General.

The world heaved a sigh of relief. Trump must have been furious. Gaetz was just the sort of MAGA loyalist he wanted as the nation’s top cop. As Gaetz has demonstrated repeatedly in the past, he would do whatever Trump told him to do.

The demise of former Congressman Gatez wasn’t a real surprise. He is one of the most unpopular lawmakers on Capitol Hill. He is regarded as a bombastic egotist tainted with allegations of drug abuse and under-age sex.

He resigned his seat from Congress in order to prevent publication of the Congressional Ethics Committee report which detailed his nefarious activities. The committee is not supposed to publish reports on former members of Congress. He withdrew from the Attorney General’s job when he heard that old and new allegations were about to surface anyway.

Gatez, however, is only one of many potential Trump appointees who expose the president-elect’s contempt for social norms and the rule of law. He sees his election as a mandate to disrupt the American government and then rebuild it again in his image. His choice of appointments reflect this.

Total control of the Department of Justice and the FBI is a top Trump target – Gaetz as Attorney General would have been in charge of both institutions who by convention work independently of the executive branch. The Department of Defense is another because he wants a loyal military to be used – if necessary – for domestic security.

That is why he has nominated Peter Hesgeth, a Fox News presenter, whose two qualifications for the job was that he served as a National Guard officer in Iraq and Afghanistan and – more importantly – he is a far-right Trump loyalist.

Donald Trump had problems with the military during his first term. They refused to become embroiled in politics. The generals, admirals and other senior officers, argued that their loyalty was to their personal oath to the US constitution rather than to an individual.

Hegseth wants to change that. He has proposed sacking generals who are not right-wing enough. In the Hesgeth playbook everyone who is not a Trump loyalist is a “Marxist” and must be “annihilated.” In his book American Crusade Hesgeth wrote chillingly: “The hour is late for America. Beyond political success, her fate relies on exorcising the leftist spectre dominating education, religion, and culture – a 360-degree holy war for the righteous cause of human freedom.”

And as for democracy, well Hegseth claims that the founding fathers did not want the United States to be a democracy and their views – or his interpretation of those views – should be respected.

Like Trump and Gatez, Hegseth has a sex charge allegation hanging over him. In 2017, a woman accused a drunken Hegseth of sexually assaulting her. She dropped the charges after being paid $10,000, but rest assured the issue will be raised during his Senate confirmation hearings.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged donald trump | 6 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 10th November 2024 - 8:30 am

Trump is bad news for NATO.

He damaged it in his first term and again during his campaign when he repeatedly threatened to either withdraw from the alliance or refuse to defend members that failed to meet the target of defence spending of at least two percent of GDP.

“We have been treated badly,” he told a Wisconsin election rally in September, “so badly, mostly by our allies. Our allies treat us actually worse than our so-called enemies. In the military, we protect them, and then they screw us on trade. We’re not going to let it happen anymore.”

Trump has threatened tariffs of up to 20 percent on EU and British goods. The clear implication is that if they want those tariffs reduced or eliminated then Europe’s NATO members will have to accept to spend more on defence which will allow the US to reduce its commitment. It is called transactional diplomacy.

Of course, Trump’s policy does not take into account that by beggaring his allies he also reduces their ability to spend more on defence.

Trump’s policy towards NATO is unpopular with the wider American public. More than 70 percent say they are enthusiastic supporters of the Alliance. This position was mirrored in July 2023 when—in a rare moment bipartisanship—Congress passed legislation which required US withdrawal from NATO to be approved by a two-thirds majority of the Senate, or through legislation which gives Congress a bigger say in overseeing alliances. The legislation was co-sponsored by Marco Rubio who has been tipped for the job of Trump’s Secretary of State.

The legislation, however, does not prevent Trump from closing bases, withdrawing troops or stopping investment or expenditure. Under the constitution, the president has wide powers to make and break treaties and order troops to occupy or withdraw from every part of the world. Trump, if he wanted, could hollow-out America’s commitment to defend Europe and leave America a semi-detached member of the alliance.

So European members of NATO remain NATO. But they sit easy compared to Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky is terrified

The election of Donald Trump raises the real possibility that his country’s lifeline of American military aid will come to a shuddering halt and push Ukraine under the heel of the Russian boot.

Trump has repeatedly opposed the economic drain of aid to Ukraine. He has added that if elected he would end the Ukraine war “in a day.”

The president-elect refuses to go into specifics, but there was a possible hint in a paper written in May by two of Trump’s former security advisers, General Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz.

They suggested that a Trump administration could propose immediate peace talks and a ceasefire based on current military positions. Ukraine would maintain its claim to territories currently occupied by Russia, leaving open the possibility of reunification at a later date. NATO membership—and possibly EU membership as well—would be taken off the table and pushed into an unknown future.

If Ukraine refused the American proposal then the Trump Administration would decrease American military aid. If Russia refused then the US would increase military aid to Ukraine.

Trump’s election could not have come at a worse time for Zelensky. The German government of Olof Scholz is on the verge of collapse. Europeans cannot continue the necessary support on their own and everyone is worried about the new international dimension created by the insertion of 10,000 North Korean troops.

At the same time the war on the ground is not going well. The Russians advance slowly but surely. They recently took the mining town of Selydove.

President Zelensky has ordered the call-up of 160,000 young men over the next three months, which has sent thousands into hiding. Without American support, Ukraine cannot withstand the Russian military steamroller.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is cock-a-hoop

Posted in News | 4 Comments

Observations of an ex pat: Moral compass discarded

By Tom Arms | Sat 9th November 2024 - 8:30 am

The world’s liberal democracies suffered a major defeat this week. Its autocracies have chalked up a major win.

Illiberal populist demagogues have for the past few years scored a series of outright victories, or, at least significant advances in the world’s democracies—Hungary, Israel, Georgia, Slovakia, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Sweden…. They have all swung their political barometers towards the far right.

And now, the biggest prize, the United States, has been secured by an angry misogynistic, racist, iconoclastic, divisive, narcissistic, nationalistic, vindictive, authoritarian, mercurial, dishonest, lying, corrupt convicted felon.

The impact of the re-election of Donald J. Trump will have a resounding impact on the world. It has already left a deep and damaging impression on America’s moral standing in the world.

In 1630, as the ship Arabella crossed the Atlantic towards the struggling Massachusetts Bay Colony, future colonial leader John Winthrop gave a sermon in which he expressed the hope that the colony would become a “Shining City on the Hill”—ie a moral example to the rest of the world.

That is how America has projected itself since before independence in 1776. In reality manna has too often triumphed over morality. But through the centuries Americans have fervently clung to their shining self-image and many others around the world have bought into it—until now.

Americans are angry. On the domestic front they are angry at an amorphous “deep state” which has failed to deliver the perpetual prosperity they have come to expect. They are angry at the rest of the world for what they see as exploiting their better nature.

Americans are also scared. They are scared of losing their jobs to low-paid illegal immigrants. They are even more scared of losing their cultural identity. And on the international front, they are scared of being knocked off their plinth by the Chinese.

So Americans have elected an angry man who has successfully tapped into a rich political vein of fear. He will do well out of it. For a start, Donald J. Trump has avoided prison and will now undoubtedly use the presidency to augment his several billions.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged observations of an ex pat | 7 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 3rd November 2024 - 9:36 am

Georgia

If you have a fortune of $5 billion-plus in a country with a GDP of £$24.6 billion you will be a whale in a puddle. Such is the fate of Georgia Dream Party founder and chief backer Bidzina Ivanishvili.

And, if you are willing to part with some of your fortune, you can bend the political structure and electoral systems to your will. Ivanishvili is accused of doing just that in the recent Georgian parliamentary elections which the Dream Party won with 53 percent of the vote,

Bidshina Ivanishvili was born into humble beginnings in 1958 but when the Soviet Union collapsed he moved to Russia to grab what he could in the great Russian carve-up. He ended up with a multinational conglomerate encompassing banking, real estate and heavy industry. He returned to Georgia and in 2011 decided to try his hand at politics by forming the centrist, pro-EU Georgia Dream Party.

Backed with Ivanishvili’s fortune, the Georgia Dream Party won a landslide victory in 2012 elections and Ivanishvili became prime minister. He stepped down a year later saying that he had achieved all his goals and wanted to private life.

But Ivanishvili’s money insured that he remained the power behind the throne. And from that position he subtly tilted the Dream Party towards Russia. At the same time he sought membership with the EU. His behind the scenes influence led critics to brand Ivanishvili the “shadow leader.”

As the years passed it became increasingly difficult to walk the political tightrope between the goal of EU membership and the looming shadow of the bear. To keep Russia happy Georgia Dream introduced anti LGBTQ laws and a Foreign Agents Act. Both laws closely mirrored Russia’s laws on both issues. They also breached EU human rights provisions. As a result the EU broke off negotiations with Georgia.

Georgia Dream’s tilt to Russia was unpopular. Polls showed that 80 percent of Georgians wanted to move closer to the EU as protection from Moscow. All the indications. All the opinion polls, were that after three terms in office, Georgia Dream Party, would lose last week’s election, especially when they campaigned on a promise to ban opposition parties.

They won with 54 percent of the vote. The Opposition, EU election observers, President Biden, and even Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili, called foul. They claimed that Ivanishvili’s Dream Party was guilty of “bribery, intimidation and ballot-stuffing.”

The allegations were rejected by Ivanishvili and Dream Party Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. They were welcomed by Hungary’s Vilktor Orban who hopes that eventually Georgia will become another “illiberal democratic” member of the EU. And the Russian bear? It stopped being silent and cheered.

Japan

Japan is a different democratic country. That is the reason for the lack of excitement in the wake of the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s failure to win a majority in the recent election.

The Japanese political system did not evolve over centuries like its Western counterparts. It was imposed on a socially conservative society with a strong respect for traditions, authority and seniority.

The result is a deeply Japanese political foundation with a democratic veneer, but a veneer which Japanese have come to treasure as much as their traditions.

The big word in Japanese politics is “wan” which is defined as being focused on consensus building and group harmony. It contrasts with the adversarial nature of Western politics

The electoral system reflects this consensus building nature. It is a mixed first past the post constituency-based system and proportional representation. The result is that quite often elections lead to a disparity between percentage of votes received and the percentage of seats in the Diet (the Japanese parliament).

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged georgia, japan and western sahara | 1 Comment

Observations of an Expat: Foreign Policy Impact of US elections

By Tom Arms | Sat 2nd November 2024 - 10:02 am

A Kamala Harris win this week is not good news for the UK and Europe. A Trump win is much, much worse.

Trump’s “America First” campaigns has fed a latent US isolationism which has forced the Democrats to adopt some of his policies, because, like it or not, America is a democracy and the president elected to represent all Americans.

According to one poll, only 22 percent of young Americans support involvement in the Middle East. Half of Republicans think that the US is supplying too much aid to Ukraine and only 44 percent of Republicans think that the US should play a leading role in the world. Democrats are more internationally minded with 65 percent in favour of an active foreign policy. The good news is that NATO has popular support with a bipartisan 70 percent approval rating. The fact is, however, that America is moving into its shell at one of the most dangerous periods for the world since the end of World War Two.

America’s diplomatic corps would be hard put to meet expectations even if there was a swell of opinion in favour of increased global involvement. It is still reeling from the Trump years when budgets were cut by 30 percent, ambassadorial posts were left empty and 60% of the diplomatic corps left either in protest or cutbacks. Biden has increased budgets but the damage done by Donald Trump will take years to repair.

Trump, of course, regularly threatens to withdraw from NATO. Biden and Kamala Harris have recommitted to the alliance but it was a Democratic president—Barack Obama—who first attacked NATO allies for failing to spend at least two percent of their GDP on defense. He also unveiled the “Asia Pivot” which shifts the military focus from Europe and the Middle East to East Asia. Trump, Biden and Harris have embraced the Asia Pivot.

Defense costs money and the policies of Trump, Biden and Harris are undermining the economies of UK and Europe. Trump, again is the worst. His tariffs on all imports—possibly as much as 20 percent on British and EU exports will hit exports. It will, of course, also lead to a tit for tat tariff war in which everybody loses—especially the consumer.

Kamala Harris will continue Biden’s $738 billion Inflation Reduction Act” which is peppered with isolationist policies. The IRA includes such things as a $7,500 handout for the purchase of US-made-only electric vehicles, and tax credits only for products made in America. The EU has protested and threatened to take America to the World Trade Organisation. But the WTO has been rendered useless by America’s 7-year refusal to agree to new judges for its appellate body.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged doanld, donald trump, joe biden and kamala harris | 3 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 27th October 2024 - 9:23 am

North Korea at al

China is unhappy. So is Belarus. Both countries are worried about North Korea sending troops to Russia in the middle of the Ukraine war.

President Xi Jinping is worried that the move will de-stabilise the Korean Peninsula, escalate and complicate the Ukraine War, increase Russian influence in the Far East and potentially drag China into a head-on conflict with NATO.

Alexander Lukashenko is concerned that the appearance of non-Russian troops in Ukraine will increase pressure on him to send Belarussian soldiers in support of the Kremlin.

Xi hates uncertainty. He likes his foreign policy to run along diplomatic railway lines painted bright red so that others know not to cross them. If there are going to be any spanners to be thrown, he wants to toss them and control their flight and consequences.

He does not like North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. He is uneasy about the hereditary communist dictator’s nuclear arsenal. He supplies the regime with just enough aid and trade to keep them going, but not enough to threaten the status quo. This is because for the past 74 years one of the chief aims of China is to keep Korea divided and to maintain North Korea as a buffer state between the Chinese border and 25,000 American soldiers in South Korea. Anything which threatens to disrupt that policy is bad news in Beijing.

The bromance between Vladimir Putin and Kim threatens to upset this delicately balanced apple cart. Kim will want something in return for his troops. It will almost certainly include Russian military help which will embolden the mercurial North Korean leader and increase the threat to South Korea and Japan.

Belarus is on the frontline in the Ukraine War. The initial attack in 2022 was launched from its territory. Lukashenko is closely allied with Russia and continues to provide bases and logistical support. But Lukashenko knows he is unpopular. He clings to power with the help of the Belarussian KGB (yes, they retained the name of the old Soviet organisation). Committing his small military force of 50,000 to the Ukraine War would be unpopular and threaten his rule.

By the way, just everyone else is also unhappy about North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine. It adds a new and dangerous dimension by internationalising the conflict.

Russia

Russia is unhappy too. The recent referendum in Moldova on closer ties with the European Union did not go the way the Kremlin wanted. It was extremely close: 50.46 percent in favour of closer ties and 49.54 percent against.

The Russians did everything they could to push the vote the other way. They played fast and loose with bribery, intimidation and misinformation. A BBC reporter was filmed being approached by a voter asking for the payment she had been promised.

The misinformation focused on an expensive advertising campaign which claimed the EU planned to brainwash Moldovan children to turn gay or transgender. The gay community is generally unpopular throughout Eastern Europe.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged china, georgia, moldova, north korea, russia and ukraine | 5 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Trump Told You So

By Tom Arms | Sat 26th October 2024 - 10:17 am

Dear Trump Supporters,

I thought of writing this open letter after the elections. But I decided that would be pointless because you really needed to read it before you voted.

Also, if I wrote it after the election, it was going to be an I-told-you-so missive which is never a nice thing to do, although it is very satisfying to the writer.

So, having dismissed the two options above, I thought the best thing to do is write a “Trump Told You So” letter or, as the election is yet to happen, “Trump Is Telling You So” letter.

The thinking behind my letter is that all you have to do is believe the words coming out of the man’s mouth to decide to cast your ballot for Kamala Harris. If you can’t bring yourself to do that, don’t vote at all, write-in your mother-in-law’s name or put an X next to the name of a third party candidate.

This letter will also include the actions of Donald Trump as well as the words because, as we all know, actions speak much, much louder than words.

Let’s start with the hot topic of immigration. Trump has said he wants to deport 20 million immigrants. Think about it. Twenty million people, some of which are certain to be your friend, neighbour, colleague, maybe even a relative.

And where will these 20 million be kept while waiting to be flown to the countries they fled. Rest assured, they won’t be staying at the local Hilton.

Finally, what about the cost? Twenty million people will be taken out of the economy. That it is twenty million people who produce and buy goods and services. If all they earned was $30,000 a year that means $600 billion would be taken out of the economy. But that is nothing compared to the price tag for police and enforcement agents to implement Trump’s plans. It is estimated that will cost the taxpayer $850 billion.

As we are talking about money, how about Trump’s wider economic policies the key points of which are tariffs and taxes. Trump wants a 10-20 percent tariff on all imported goods and tariffs ranging from 60 percent to 500 percent (depending on which rally you attend) on Chinese goods.

Posted in News | Tagged donald trump | 14 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 20th October 2024 - 10:27 am

Middle East

Every geopolitical shift offers opportunities and dangers. The escalating war in the Middle East is no exception.

At the moment the world is focused on the dangers. But the opportunities are there as the major players realise the need to step back from the brink and consider measures that were hitherto unthinkable in order to avoid a catastrophe nobody wants.

The biggest opportunity could involve Iran’s nuclear weapons programme.

There is a strong body of opinion in the US and Israel that the best way to deal with Iran’s nuclear weapons programme is to destroy it. The problem with that is three-fold:
1- You cannot destroy the know-how
2- the necessary installations are deep underground, heavily protected and would probably require direct American involvement and
3- Destruction of Iran’s nuclear installations would only increase hatred of Israel and the US.

Many Israelis and Americans also fear that a religiously-zealous Iran would use nuclear weapons against Israel—and possibly the US—as soon as they acquire them.

Rubbish. The Iranians may be religious extremists, but they are not stupid. They know that they would be wiped out in any nuclear exchange.

To them a nuclear weapon is a deterrent against an Israeli—or possibly joint US-Israeli—nuclear or overwhelming conventional attack.

However, nuclear weapons do give Iran greater flexibility in any conventional scenario as any potential enemy would think twice about attacking a nuclear-armed Iran. This would mean a serious movement in the Middle East goalposts.

So how can the US (with Israel looming large in the background) and the Mullahs avoid escalation and a nuclear Iran. From the Iranian side, Washington would expect Tehran to immediately stop refining and testing missiles and enriching U-235 and converting it to fissile material. From the US-Israeli side, Iran would expect guarantees that Iran would not be attacked by either Israel or the US.

Iran is reckoned by the CIA to be seven months away from having THE bomb. An agreement could freeze development at the current level—or slightly more advanced– so that if it was attacked, Iran could quickly move to a nuclear capable position.

The above scenario is not impossible. According to intelligence sources, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini has not given the final go-ahead for nuclear weapons. He has also told newly-elected President Masoud Pazeshkian that he can resume nuclear negotiations with the five members of the Security Council and Germany.

There are other important tangential issues including: Iranian support for Russia’s war in Ukraine; Iranian support for Hezbollah and the Houthis; Israeli attacks on Hezbollah; Saudi and UAE attacks on the Houthis; the Syrian civil war; Western sanctions against Iran and Iran and China’s growing economic co-dependency.

All of —or some of—these issues could be dealt with as part of nuclear talks. Or nuclear talks could open the door to separate discussions on these problems.

European Union

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy has called it the “EU Reset.” It started this week with Lammy attending a regular meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg. The Foreign Office has promised more of the same.

The talks were on big global security issues—China, Russia, Ukraine, the Middle East, US elections—all those things on which it is very easy for the UK and EU to agree. Not on the agenda was the EU-UK 2020 Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) which continues to bedevil or threaten to bedevil EU-UK relations.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged european union, iran, israel and united states | 9 Comments

Observations of an Expat: Navalny v. Putin

By Tom Arms | Sat 19th October 2024 - 10:22 am

Alexei Navalny’s memoirs are adamant: Putin’s Russia is based on corruption and “lies, nothing but lies.”

“It will,” he has written, inevitably “crumble and collapse.”

The late Navalny’s scathing assessment is a central theme in his memoir “Patriot” which is published this coming week in 11 different languages.

Russia is a modern-day feudal state wrapped in the flag of nationalism and plagued with corruption, bribery, kleptocracy, cronyism, a crooked judicial system, and suppressed media and personal freedoms.

There are an estimated 100 oligarchs at the top of the Russian heap. Their cumulative net worth is about $500 billion. The exact number of oligarchs is constantly shifting as the man at the apex of this structure—one Vladimir Putin—likes to keep his underlings on their toes by firing, imprisoning and assassinating any oligarchs that dare to veer from fawning fidelity.

Putin himself is one of the wealthiest man in the world with estimates of his net worth ranging from $180 to $200 billion. His money is derived mainly from kickbacks and bribes from oligarchs who rely on his favour for their billions. Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index ranks Russia at 141 out of 180 countries.

A prime example of this feudal-type corruption is the 2014 Winter Olympics at Sochi. At $50 billion they were the costliest Olympics in history. They didn’t need to be. It is estimated that a third of the bill went in kickbacks and cost overruns. The contractors were childhood friends of Putin, Arkady and Boris Rotenberg. Their construction company was the only one allowed to bid for the Sochi contract. They secured the contract to build the Kerch Strait Bridge linking Russia and Crimea on the same terms.

Exposing Russian corruption is a risky business. Navalny was a leading exponent of it. He was poisoned with Novichok in 2021. After recovering in Germany, he returned to Russia to be immediately arrested and imprisoned. He died in a remote prison in February.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged alexei navalny, russia and vladimir putin | 4 Comments

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