Is now the time to really commit to the campaign to Rejoin?

I’ll freely admit that I’ve been a bit sceptical about the campaign to rejoin the European Union. Not because I don’t believe that we should be within the fold rather than outside it but rather, I felt that we needed to be clear as a nation about what we really wanted of the relationship. Also, having put our neighbours through the psychodrama that was Brexit, they needed to be confident that we really meant it before attempting to negotiate a return.

The Party itself has struggled with determining a campaigning stance. Those who joined the Party as a campaigning vehicle to overturn the 2016 referendum have mostly sought an avowedly pro-Rejoin stance, whilst others, more cautious about losing potential voters, have soft-pedalled such a stance whilst indicating their support for an eventual return. The fairly disastrous campaigns of 2017 and 2019 reinforced the sense of caution.

But the news that polling by the European Council for Foreign Relations suggests that British voters are now willing to accept free movement as part of the conditions for rejoining the Single Market, perhaps changes the game.

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16 December 2024 – the overnight press releases

  • English Devolution plan: Deafening silence on social care
  • Revealed: 15 years of NHS ambulance time wasted already this winter – up from 10.5 years last year

English Devolution plan: Deafening silence on social care

Commenting ahead of government’s English Devolution plan, Liberal Democrat Local Government spokesperson Vikki Slade MP said:

The deafening silence from the government on the social care crisis is hugely concerning.

Council budgets are on the brink. The previous Conservative government pushed so many local authorities to the edge of bankruptcy.

Without properly investing in social care more of the vital services that councils provide will disappear to those who desperately need them.

Revealed:

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Trump vs FBI

Trump clashed with FBI director Christopher Wray from the start. So much so that he didn’t bother to turn up for his swearing-in ceremony in 2017.
Wray led the investigation into Russian collusion; refused to condemn his agents as products of the “deep state”; attacked the January 6 riots as “domestic terrorism” and started the probe into the Mar-a-lago documents case.
When Wray refused to do as ordered during the George Floyd riots, Trump tried to fire him. He was blocked by the Attorney General. “Over my dead body,” said Bill Barr.
This week Wray bowed to the inevitable and resigned three years before his term of office was due to expire. Trump and his MAGA-supporting Republican claimed that even though Trump appointed him, Wray was  weaponisng America’s federal law enforcement agency against thim.
Kash Patel—the man who Trump wants to replace Wray—has served notice that that he wants to weaponise the FBI in the service of President Trump.
Patel is the fiercest of fierce critics of the FBI and the Department of Justice. The title of his book about the bureau speaks volumes: “Government Gangsters.”
In it he calls for the “eradication of government the tyrant” within the FBI by firing the top ranks.” More recently he has said that he wants to sack all but 50 of the agents in the bureau’s Washington office, which employs the bulk of the FBI’s 37,000 employees.
Patel is known for his blind loyalty the president-elect in a variety of offices ranging from the Pentagon, to the Department of Justice, to the National Security Council and various campaign positions. He does, however, break with a long-standing tradition of never having served in a senior position in the FBI.
Patel has promised Trump’s opponents: “We’re coming after the people in the media and the courts and the civil service and congress who have lied to American citizens; who helped Joe Biden to rig presidential elections…. We’re going to come after you whether its criminally or civilly. We’ll figure that out. But, yeah, we’re putting you all on notice.”
Kash Patel still has to be confirmed by the Senate. That confirmation is not a foregone conclusion, but It is becoming increasingly difficult for The Republican majority to keep rejecting Trump’s nominees.

Trump vs Canada

The master of the insult—Donald J. Trump—has struck again. This time his target is Canada and all things Canadian.
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Observations of an ex pat: Syrian Butterfly

The Syrian butterfly has flapped its wings and created a political storm throughout the region and well beyond.
Russia has lost a Middle East foothold and global credibility but gained troops for its war in Ukraine. Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” has been reduced to dust. Hezollah has been cut off from its supplier.
All the Arab states will be pleased that the Persians have been humbled but will be worried that they have been backed into the nuclear corner.
China may be casting a covetous eye over the the vacuum left by a weakened Russia in Central Asia, Middle East and the  south Caucasuses. Joe Biden sees an “historic opportunity.” Donald Trump sees an exit.
Israel sees an opportunity to expand its territory and influence, and a chance to remove both Iran and Syria as major foes.
Western intelligence chiefs have expressed concerns about an upsurge of Islamic violence in the West. Those fleeing Hayat Tahrir al- Sham (HTS) may increase the number of refugees heading West. But then the millions in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Europe may more than balance the books by starting a Great Return.
Turkey is  chuffed that the organisation which they sheltered, HTS, in northwest Syria may now rule the rest of the country. This could increase their foothold in 100 square kilometres of Syrian territory and their suppression of Kurdish rebels. The Kurds are worried about the Turks, as are their Israeli and American backers.
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ALDC by-election report 12 December

Is it déjà vu? Or are there six principal council by-elections again? What’s different this week is a majority of seats sees holds in lieu of changing hands. The Tories defended their two seats, while the Lib Dems and the independents held on to their own. It was, unsurprisingly, another bad night for the governing party in Westminster, as Labour saw a collapse in vote share across the board, barely holding on to one seat and losing the other to Reform.

Starting with the good news, it was a run-away win for Cllr Andy Waters in the Dodworth ward in Barnsley MBC. The vote for the Lib Dems held steady as we secured close to half of the electorate. Here we see the Labour vote over halved, dropping them down to third overall. Congratulations to Andy and the team for all the work put into winning the seat!

Barnsley MBC, Dodworth
Liberal Democrat (Andy Waters): 1029 (49.7%, -1.7%)
Reform: 503 (24.3%, new)
Labour: 334 (16.1%, -18.5%)
Conservative: 147 (7.1%, -6.9%)
Green Party: 57 (2.8%, new)

Similarly, Labour’s vote also plummeted in Featherstone, Wakefield DC, but managed to defend their seat. Here, Christopher Howden established themselves as the definitive opposition, hopping into second place despite the lack of Lib Dem presence in the ward last time around. Thank you and well done to Christopher and the local team for the effort, this sets us up well to winning here next election!

Wakefield DC, Featherstone
Labour: 893 (42.1%, -30.7%)
Liberal Democrat (Christopher Howden): 548 (25.9%, new)
Reform: 463 (21.8, new)
Conservative: 141 (6.7%, -8.8%)
Green Party: 74 (3.5%, -8.3%)

The other amazing performance by the Lib Dems comes from Ronan McCaughey in the Ottershaw ward in Runnymede BC. The independents, who used to hold all three seats in the ward before this by-election, won with over 40% of the votes. Despite such a strong presence, however, the Lib Dem vote tripled. Thank you to Ronan and the team for the astounding result, you’ll get them next time.

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Watch: Christine Jardine on BBC Question Time yesterday

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Do you want to see Ed Davey do a sky dive?

He has rashly pledged that he will do a sky dive if his Christmas single with the Bath Philharmonia Young Carers’ Choir gets at least 10,000 downloads next week.

“Love is Enough” can be downloaded here. You all know what to do…

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Understanding the Syria conflicts 2

Although they cannot be condoned, public executions of former Syrian secret police in Damascus, Latakia and elsewhere in Syria, following the new HTS-led government, are not exactly unexpected.

When Hafez Assad came to power with the support of the Soviet Union in the 1960s, Moscow helped the new regime set up the brutal, hated Mukhabarat secret police. The Mukhabarat , led mostly by Alawites, were known not only for mass torture and ‘disappearances’ to keep Hafez Assad in power, they also had their tentacles all over the Syrian military and economy, deploying widespread ‘confiscations’. His son Bashar Assad, reportedly considered reigning in the Mukhabarat for economic reasons, but had little chance to succeed. He became dependent on the Mukhabarat to stay in power, who increased their murderous, torturing spree under his rule, and further alienated the population.

Saddam’s equally murderous and hated Mukhabarat in Iraq was also developed with Soviet assistance, as were the internal terror institutions of Algeria, set up under Chairman Boumédiène.

I am intimately acquainted with these three Soviet-initiated security institutions myself, having been arrested and imprisoned pending execution in the Algerian garrison town of Blida at the age of 19, having been dragged from my car and cuffed by the Syrian Mukhabarat on the Jordanian border for no apparent reason in the 1990s, and having shockingly located the hidden Iraqi Mukhabarat torture HQ in Basra, after giving chase with my Close Protection Team, in 2003.

Hatred of the Mukhabarat helped fuel the genuine ‘Arab Spring’ Syrian uprising from 2011, but as with the Tahir Square uprising in Egypt, and revolts in Tunisia and Libya, the young, sometimes EU-facing pro-democracy ‘moderns’ were soon swept away by the more grounded Islamists. In Egypt the Brotherhood were appreciated amongst the poor for their social support.

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Voting rights, residency, citizenship and reciprocity

On 7 June 2015, an EU member state held a referendum on a political change, one that its proponents said would send a message to the world about how enlightened the country was, but its opponents said would erode the country’s national identity. When the result was declared, it was an emphatic ‘no’, with just over 70 per cent voting the proposal down, in an 87 per cent turnout, with those who would have most benefited from the change feeling undervalued or rejected.

No, as you will have gathered, it wasn’t ‘that’ referendum held in June the following year, but the one held in Luxembourg on extending voting rights in national parliamentary elections to foreigners resident in the country. Despite only being intended for those who had a) been resident for at least ten years and b) previously voted in either European or local elections, this went too far for many in a country whose national motto translates as ‘We want to remain what we are’.

Granted it did not have the ramifications that ‘other’ referendum had, but it illustrates, even in the EU, how many still believe that voting rights in national elections should be restricted to citizens of the country concerned. In addition, in countries like Ireland, despite the role of those in the diaspora in supporting the economy through remittances over the decades, there remains opposition, sometimes vehement, to giving them the vote, even from some in the diaspora itself.

On the other hand, eligible Irish citizens registered to vote in constituencies in Northern Ireland can enrol as overseas electors, but not ones in Great Britain, and even then, they need to prove they have been born in Northern Ireland, not just anywhere on the island, and eligible for British citizenship, even if they have no intention of ever holding a British passport.

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In praise of U3A

I wouldn’t blame you if you haven’t heard of U3A, especially if you are under 50, even though it has 400,000 members across the UK. It is one of those organisations that is publicised through word of mouth, and in this case only to retired people. But it is a shining example of the type of community led collective activity that as Liberal Democrats we greatly cherish.

U3A stands for the University of the Third Age. I admit that “University” is stretching it a bit, as it doesn’t actually offer any degrees or other qualifications, which I imagine is why it tends to be known by the shortened form these days. What it does offer is learning opportunities, cultural activities and social events, all run by members with the relevant expertise.

The basic premise is that retired people have a wealth of knowledge and skills that they can share. Any member can set up a group, most of which meet in members’ homes.

My local U3A (which covers my London borough) offers an astonishing 71 different groups; study areas include art, cooking, bridge, wine tasting, history, languages, literature, music and many more. Some groups are structured around trips to concerts or theatre and others enjoy outings for cycling or walking. Monthly lectures on a variety of subjects are well attended. Two years ago I very tentatively turned up at an art group having abandoned art at the age of 14 – I was welcomed and encouraged by an experienced teacher and have really grown in confidence. I also enjoy meeting with a poetry reading group.

Members can also attend online regional and national talks, attend study days and visit other branches.

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Ed Davey on Have I Got News For You

If you follow Have I Got News For You then you will have noticed that jokes featuring Ed Davey have featured for several weeks now. So perhaps it is no surprise that he will be appearing as a guest panellist this week. Expect some gentle (and maybe robust) ribbing from the two regulars and Stephen Mangan who will be in the chair. You can watch the episode tomorrow at 9pm on BBC1 or on iPlayer.

And the panel for this evening’s edition of BBC Question Time will include Christine Jardine, bringing her usual common sense to the programme that can be so irritating. She shares the table with fellow MPs Wes Streeting and Tom Tugendhat, plus writer Emma Dabiri and Piers Morgan.

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Beware of the Leopard

There is a truth universally acknowledged that if you want to go through the motions of consulting people, but you don’t really want to encourage them to respond to you, you slip out a consultation, say, in the second week in December when nobody is really thinking about the issue in hand and close it on 3rd January.

I’m minded of the consultation process for the destruction of earth to make way for a hyperspace bypass as outlined by the brilliant Douglas Adams in “The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.”

But the plans were on display…”
“On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them.”
“That’s the display department.”
“With a flashlight.”
“Ah, well, the lights had probably gone.”
“So had the stairs.”
“But look, you found the notice, didn’t you?”
“Yes,” said Arthur, “yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard.”

So this is a roundabout way of saying that the Federal Board has slipped out a consultation on the party’s Internal Election Regulations in the second week of December that closes on 3rd January.

By doing so, they give off vibes that they are going through the motions of consultation. They want to know whether we think a larger threshold of nominations is needed. They haven’t set a figure, but will look at the result of the consultation and bring a proposal to Spring Conference. That would mean the changes would be in place for the next elections in Autumn next year.

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Understanding the Syria conflicts

As in many parts of the world, history is very much a political weapon in the Eastern Mediterranean. It is difficult to assess conflicts in Syria (and the British/Western interest) for this reason, especially for politicians unversed in the labyrinthine machinations of post-Sykes-Picot Syria and the Levant. Every phrase uttered is ‘controversial’.

There is much to be understood about the ancient past of the area, especially in relation to territorial claims and counter-claims made by different ethnic and religious factions today (..of widely-varying historical or archaeological solidity). These claims fog up the search for ‘academic’ historical understanding. The Eastern Med is identity politics on steroids.

However, relevant modern Syrian history begins not so much with the much-touted 1916 Sykes Picot agreement per se,  but with a series of related international agreements established between 1915 and 1923, initiated primarily after the start of WW1 due to the anticipated fall of the Ottoman Empire. These involved the UK, France, Russia, Turkiye, Armenia … and Arab & Kurdish groups who had opposed the ruling Ottoman Empire.

Syria’s borders today do reflect these international negotiations. Local ethnically Arab, Kurd and other populations had limited influence. There was a reluctance in the major-power negotiations to establish  countries or administrative regions based on ethnicity or religion, and a key result of that was the absence of a ‘Kurdish’ state, and the consolidation of several Arab states of mixed ethnic make up, and of varying denominations of the mostly Abrahamic religions.

These divisions were utilised after WW2 by the Soviets, with their anti-colonial narratives in the Cold War period. Recognising the history, they sought a ‘strong leader’ (in the colonial tradition) to hold all the Syrian groups together, by force or otherwise, who was not a member of one of the major dominant groups. In the early 1960s they cultivated a notable Alawite family, conveniently based in a Northern coastal area. By 1963 the brutal Ba’athist Hafez al-Assad, the future president, was already the primary power behind the scenes. He had received pilot training in the Soviet Union in the 1950s.

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Josh Babarinde introduces bill to create specific domestic abuse offences

Yesterday, Lib Dem justice spokesperson Josh Babarinde has introduced a new Bill which would create specific offences relating to domestic abuse. People convicted under these offences would not be eligible for early release schemes.

On the last day of the annual 10 days of activism to end violence against women and girls, Josh appeared on Good Morning Britain to say why this was important:

He said after he tabled the Bill, which has the backing of Women’s Aid:

Domestic abuse has a devastating impact on survivors, and the law is leaving too many of them without protection. It’s only right that all domestic abusers are convicted of precisely what they’ve done. My bill will mean abusers can no longer hide behind more general convictions they’ve relied on until now.

The loopholes in the Government’s SDS40 early release scheme have made clear that this change cannot wait any longer.

I hope the government will work with us – and with the survivors backing this bill – to finally create new domestic abuse aggravated offences and give victims and survivors the protection they deserve.

He questioned Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood. Here is their exchange in full:

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Beware asking ‘What next for Syria?’

Trigger warning – this post contains some distressing details about torture.

Wherever events in Syria are being discussed by western media and politicians, one question is asked over and over again: ‘What will happen next?’ A number of commenters on my previous article asked it, I’ve received it from friends and family and I see it all over social media.

But this isn’t a neutral question, whatever the intent of the person asking it. The inference is that ‘we’ve been here before, and look what happened’. Often it’s accompanied by the explicit ‘Syria might end up like Libya’…

I do understand why this sentiment is so common. The Arab Spring of 2011 raised hopes that were largely dashed. We’ve seen corrupt, brutal dictators replaced by elected leaders who then were replaced by new brutal dictators. The UK and our allies bear a heavy degree of responsibility for some disastrous interventions in the Middle East, not least the illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.

But please… Before asking this question, please stop and think. Imagine this was 1945. Imagine you are seeing the liberation of the Nazi concentration camps in central Europe. Imagine you are seeing for the first time the piles of corpses and the machinery of death and destruction. Imagine the tens of thousands of emaciated, brutalised survivors of those camps stumbling free.

Would you, even knowing what we know now about the brutality and corruption of Soviet rule, say to these people “ah, but what will come next?” Would it occur to you to say to the families of the survivors “what comes next may be worse?”

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Shadows over Damascus: The unravelling of a regime

Bashar al-Assad has fled, and HTS fighters, backed by Turkey, have taken control of Damascus. It immediately brought to mind the fall of Kabul to the Taliban only a few years ago—how quickly power shifted with little resistance. Afghanistan fell to the Taliban then, and now it seems Damascus may fall to HTS. Yet, this isn’t just a repeat of history; it’s a far more complex situation.

Let me be clear: Bashar al-Assad was no saint. He was a dreadful leader, willing to commit unspeakable atrocities to cling to power. Yet, I genuinely expected him to fight harder to retain his grip. It’s worth noting that Assad wasn’t originally meant to rule; that role was intended for his brother, who tragically died in a car crash. Bashar was thrust into power by circumstance, and his leadership style has always reflected that—a man eager to please but lacking the foresight for the long game.

The timing of this shift couldn’t be worse for Assad’s allies. Iran, preoccupied with Israel and Lebanon, and Russia, entrenched in Ukraine, are in no position to prop him up. In this vacuum, Turkey has made a bold move. I see this as Erdoğan’s masterstroke—a calculated “Ottoman slap,” so to speak. Make no mistake, this wasn’t an HTS-led victory in isolation. This was orchestrated in Ankara, backed by Istanbul, and serves as a clear message to the Middle East: there’s a new sheriff in town.

However, the fall of Assad comes with significant risks. History shows us what happens when iron-fisted regimes collapse without a clear successor. Iraq post-Saddam and Libya after Gaddafi offer grim lessons. Power vacuums invite chaos, and Syria could easily become a breeding ground for ISIS-like groups to reemerge. HTS doesn’t have the monopoly on violence needed to stabilize the region, leaving Syria vulnerable to prolonged instability. I wouldn’t be surprised if Turkey takes further action, possibly carving out a buffer zone to guard against Kurdish aspirations for autonomy.

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8 December 2024 – today’s press releases

  • Ambulance delays crisis: Streeting must make a statement to Parliament
  • Syria: Assad must now face justice for his crimes

Ambulance delays crisis: Streeting must make a statement to Parliament

Responding to reports that heart attack patients are being advised to make their own way to hospital while six of England’s ten ambulance trusts are at risk of service failure, Liberal Democrat Health and Social Care spokesperson Helen Morgan said:

The shocking reports on the state of ambulance services are extremely concerning, and show the dire situation in which the Conservative government has left so many of our vital NHS services.

Lack of services and wait

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Syrians are free at last

Syria is free. Despite the odds, despite the indifference, despite the efforts of the ‘Global community’ to ‘freeze the conflict’ and bring ‘stability’ to a problem they wished would go away… Syrians have freed themselves. The Assad regime, rotten to the core, competent solely at oppressing Syrians, is finished. 

Across the country, Syrians from all religions, sects and ethnicities have been pulling down statues of their oppressor, but the images that probably matter most are those of people walking or being carried free from the regime’s prison network. Families being reunited with relatives they’d been told had died in captivity years ago. Children born to mothers in prison. An air force pilot imprisoned for refusing to carry out the order to bomb civilians in Hama – in 1982. Prisoners so abused that they cannot remember their own names.

Syrians are already beginning to return to their homes. From refugee camps within Syria and from surrounding countries. This is a time for optimism.

The revolution in Syria – and we can unambiguously call it that now, rather than a ‘conflict’ – has been poorly covered in the international media, with some honourable exceptions. In part I think this is down to how complex Syrian society is, in part due to how quickly and how often things changed in the country and in part because many in the media and politics fell (or worse, jumped knowingly) into the trap of seeing events in Syria as part of a ‘great game’, rather than seeing Syrians as a people with their own agency.

Over the years I’ve written a number of articles for Lib Dem Voice on Syria, in which I tried to do my part, to explain to party members what was happening, what our choices were as a country as to how we should respond. The Lib Dems for Free Syria organised briefings for parliamentarians and tried to feed into our party’s policy-making process. The most important thing we tried to do was to platform Syrians.

It’s with that in mind that I’m writing this today. Firstly, infinite congratulations to Syrians for overthrowing one of the worst monsters the world has seen. Secondly, to ask Liberal Democrats, whatever their concerns about what might come next for Syria, to please use this time to be happy for Syrians. The future is uncertain, but it is now for Syrians to determine.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

France and Germany

Europe is in political turmoil. The governments of the EU’s ideological and economic engines – France and Germany respectively – have collapsed.

Meanwhile Russia is advancing in the East and in the West Trump is retreating with a tariff-infested isolationist America First policy. To complicate matters further, Trump himself is unlikely to keep quiet when he visits France this weekend for the all-star reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.

At the heart of France’s problem is a three-way polarisation of French politics and a long-standing government tendency to pay more than it has. The centre-right guru of compromise, Michel Barnier was appointed Prime Minister, after parliamentary elections in the summer.

He failed to resolve either problem and a vote of no confidence brought about the collapse of his government on Wednesday. New parliamentary elections are the obvious answer. The problem is that under the constitution of the Fifth Republic there must be a gap of 12 months between National Assembly elections.

Which opens the question of whether President Emmanuel Macron himself should resign. So far, he has refused to consider it.

In the background is the fate of far-right National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen who is facing a five-year ban from politics for mis-use of EU funds. This would bar her from running for the presidency unless … Macron resigns. If he does presidential elections must be held within 30 days and Le Pen is rescued from the political wilderness.

Meanwhile, in Germany, Olof Scholz has failed to hold together his traffic-light coalition and called elections for February next year. The projected winners are this stage are the CDU/CSU coalition led by 69-year-old Friedrich Merz. Merz is pretty standard far-right. He is pro-EU, anti-Russian and pro-Ukraine.

The fly in the German electoral ointment is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) which is pro-Russian, anti-EU anti-Ukraine and vehemently anti-immigration. The AfD has been rising rapidly in the political stakes. It is based mainly in the former German Democratic Republic and is unlikely to win a majority, but it could end up the second biggest party in the Bundestag.

The problem is that the AfD is toxic. None of the established parties will form a coalition with it. Which means that the outcome is likely to be another shaky coalition just when Germany needs strong government. Not only is their threat of Russia, but the economy is in the doldrums as a result of its inability to compete with Chinese and American electric vehicles.

Its export problems are soon to be worsened by Trump’s tariffs. This in turn could drag East European economies from relative growth into recession. This in turn could increase its Euro-sceptic, pro-Russian leaders to turn away from the democratic institutions of the EU towards the more autocratic Russians and Chinese.

United States

It’s official – American’s legal system has been politicised and weaponised. Joe Biden’s decision to pardon his son Hunter was the final piece in this unfortunate jigsaw puzzle.

Some claim that America’s rule of law has already been hopelessly compromised. Either by years of corruption, questionable litiginous claims, a bloated legal profession, Donald Trump’s contempt for the law and Democrats’ use of the law to attack Trump.

It is true that New York’s conviction of Trump on business-related felony charges was questionable. Yes, he was guilty. But would he have been charged if he had not been Trump?

The Georgia state prosecution, and the two federal prosecutions – one of disappearing documents and the other for alleged insurrection – are of a much more serious nature. They involve nothing less than treason. With Trump’s election they will simply… disappear.

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Deep fried oreos and hummus – and MPs do karaoke

We have it on very good authority that there were some exceptionally sore heads in Lib Dem offices at Westminster and in constituency offices on Friday morning.

Thursday night saw the biggest Lib Dem staff Christmas party in a decade as Party HQ and staff from many of the 72 parliamentary offices gathered in a nightclub called “The Big Chill” in Kings Cross.

Politico has some more details:

Also spotted … eating humus and deep-fried Oreos at the Lib Dems’ Christmas party at Big Chill bar in Kings Cross: Equalities spokesperson Christine Jardine doing Cher’s “Believe” in the karaoke, and dueting on “Don’t You Want Me” with MP Munira Wilson … MPs Sarah Olney and Cameron Thomas doing triple karaoke with head policy adviser Will Cowie … party CEO Mike Dixon … campaigns director Dave McCobb, who was the architect of the Blue Wall wipeout … Chief Whip Wendy Chamberlain … frontbenchers Josh BabarindeAlison Bennett and Danny Chambers … MPs Calum MillerZoe FranklinPaul KohlerCameron Thomas, Anna Sabine and Olly Glover … Director of Communications Paul Haydon … Ed Davey’s press secretary Tim Wild … spinners Gareth LewisWill TerrasAmi WylieRob MacDonaldLily Carlse and Liv Ransome … and long-time former press chief and peer Olly Grender.

Hummus and deep fried oreos? We just hope not together. Our liberal tolerance stretches a long way but this is an odd combination.

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A longer read: Lib Dem MPs are right about “Tractor Tax”

 Meet Llewellyn (not his real name). Llewellyn was a farmer I met in my old job and the National Farm Research Unit. The job I used to pay bills when I was representing Woodbridge as an (unpaid) town councillor. I called farmers with surveys and hoped that they would be nice to me (sometimes they were…).  

Llewellyn’s wife picked up. She, like him, was in her 80s, though she could barely speak a word of English. See the people in rural Gwynedd have performed the same job as their ancestors have in the same place since the late stone age. In fact, the farmers of Gwynedd are the people closest related to those that built stone henge – a fact proven by genetic analysis of skeletons. Not sharing my Anglo-Saxon heritage, Llewellyn’s wife was Welsh monolingual. 

Thankfully for my job, Llewellyn was not.  

He told me that he hadn’t been on a holiday for 25 years. The reason being was that Llewellyn annual income was £13,000 a year. Llewellyn’s land (the mountain the other side of Snowdon) was very expensive. Apparently, it could be sold for holiday homes for an enormous profit. The NFU has said that this makes 80-something Lewellyn fair game for Labour’s changes to inheritance tax.  The government disputes this suggestion. Insisting that their own research was in all ways superior to the professionals and peer-reviewed organisations that state the contrary.  

The situation is muddied by the Institute for Fiscal studies admitting two factors which spells potential doom for our agri-sector: 

  1. ‘Nevertheless, in some cases will simply yield too little income (and the inheritor will have too few other resources) to pay the tax. The owners might choose, or be forced, to sell part or all of the farm.’ 
  1. ‘The exact number that will be affected is uncertain but government figures imply it will be significantly less than 500 estates per year…’ 

Labour insists that marking their own homework is a worth-while enterprise. I (and most farmers) disagree.  

In a post-Brexit, post-truth world it is clear that facts and expert opinion no longer carry the weight in public discourse that they once did. In much the same way that the last government crusaded against doctors and health-care workers, this government has chosen farmers.

No less defensible (and arguably crueller) the “Bus Tax”  will remove mobility and agency for thousands of rural working people.  

It seems that many commenters on social media were to be believed believe that farming is enormously profitable. Most farmers hold a title, a castle and probably a butler. We’re all multi-millionaires, don’t you know? 

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Observations of an Expat: Middle East Whack-a-Mole

The Middle East is very much like the fairground game whack-a-mole. You think you have solved your problems by knocking a mole on the head and another one of the pesky beasts pops up on the other side of the board.

Just as Israel and Washington thought they had Hezbollah and Iran on the back foot, an Islamic fundamentalist group has popped up to threaten Syria’s Assad regime.  And, of course, the Gazan mole still has its head above the parapets – just.

The temptation is to raise a cheer for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Abu Muhammad Al-Jolani. They are, after all, now the main threat to the regime of Basahar-al Assad, one of the regime’s most brutal anti-Western dictators. They also pose the biggest danger to Russian and Iranian influence in the region.

But HTS are an internationally proscribed terrorist organisation with a reputation for brutal repression. They also want to create an Islamic state within Syria. The last thing the Middle East needs is another religiously-based government which derives its legitimacy from its relationship with an infallible Higher Being.

So, who is HTS and its leader? Why have they suddenly leapt into the world’s headlines? And, finally, what are their chances of toppling the Assad regime?

Al-Jolani himself is a shadowy figure. Even his birth date is unknown, although he is believed to be in his mid-forties and hails from Damascus where his parents still live. When the Syrian Civil War started with the 2011 Arab Spring, Al Jolani was associated with the Jihadist group Al Nusra which was the main Islamic opposition group opposing Assad in Aleppo and Syria’s northern Idlib region.

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ALDC By-Election Report, 5th December

Six principal council by-elections were held across the UK this week with Labour losing two of their three seats, one to the SNP and one to the Conservative, successfully defending only one. The Tories additionally gained a seat from an independent, while the Liberal Democrats held comfortably held their seat.

In South Oxfordshire DC, Cllr Crispin Topping won the seat in the Cholsey ward, increasing the already impressive vote share further to 62.2% this time around! Congratulations to Crispin and the team in South Oxfordshire on the stellar win.

South Oxfordshire DC, Cholsey
Liberal Democrat (Crispin Topping): 949 (62.2%, +16.1%)
Conservative: 362 (23.7%, +0.9%)
Social Democratic Party: 116 (7.6%, +2.3%)
Labour: 71 (4.7%, new)
Independent: 28 (1.8%, new)

Staying in the South, Chris Johnson stood in the Shinfield ward in Wokingham BC, where the Labour vote plummeted, losing ground to all three parties and in turn handing the Conservatives a win. Thank you Chris and the team for growing our vote and nearly beating Labour to second in the ward.

Wokingham BC, Shinfield
Conservative: 765 (49.0%, +10.4%)
Labour: 387 (24.8%, -18.9%)
Liberal Democrat (Chris Johnson): 336 (21.5%, +3.8%)
Green Party: 73 (4.7%, new)

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Spring Conference registration is now open

Federal Spring Conference will be held next year from 21st to 23rd March in beautiful Harrogate. and Early Bird registration is now open. The Conference Hotel will be the Crowne Plaza which is very close to the Harrogate Convention Centre where we will be meeting. Full information here.

You can see all the registration options here, but the key points are that the Early Bird registration rate is £85 now, rising to £125 on 10th January. Of course, there are concessions: full-time students and recipients of various benefits pay £15 rising to £30 on 10th January

In addition, first time attendees pay only £35, under 18s pay £5, and those who wish to participate (and vote) online pay £15.

Here are the deadlines for submitting motions and amendments:

  • Drafting advice: 1pm on 18th December 2024
  • Motions: 1pm on 15th January 2025
  • Amendments and Emergency motions drafting advice: 1pm on 24th February 2025
  • Amendments and Emergency motions: 1pm on 10th March 2025
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Obituary: Barbara Lindsay

A longstanding and committed Liberal for sixty-five years, Barbara Lindsay died on 21 November aged 83. She was someone I greatly admired and whose company I enjoyed. Once she had decided intellectually and by personality at the age of 18 that she was a Liberal that was it for Barbara and she became a consistent campaigner and feminist activist. Life was not easy for Barbara and the cost of politics bore heavily on her, particularly when her car needed repairing – seemingly all too often!

She was also passionate to be a writer and regularly wrote articles and comments which she then struggled with great determination to sell to relevant journals – as is the case with all of us freelances! She also wrote many pieces for numerous Liberal publications.

Barbara moved from Chester to Cheadle in 1988 and became much involved with the Cheadle Liberal Democrats, particularly with the late Patsy Calton and the general election campaigns of 2001 and 2005. She was diagnosed with cancer in 2018 but carried working in local campaigns, later doing more clerical work.

Her funeral will be at the Cypress Chapel, Stockport Crematorium, on Friday, 13 December at 12.45pm. Barbara’s daughter, Antonia Swann, is happy to be contacted on 07906 157898 or via [email protected]

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Amnesty International’s report on Israel genocide

Amnesty International’s 293 page report, ‘You feel like you are subhuman’ (5 December) stands as the first devastating indictment of Israel’s genocide of the people of Gaza since last January, when the International Court of Justice deemed genocide ‘plausible’ and applied legally binding orders concerning Israel’s conduct (which were ignored). Page by agonising page, Amnesty chronicles the disproportionate actions and language of Israeli leaders, soldiers and others that, in its view, clearly demonstrate intent to destroy Gaza and its people.

Two years ago, Amnesty published its report, ‘Israel’s Apartheid Against Palestinians’, another forensically detailed analysis of Israel as occupying power. Between the two reports stand first, the ICJ’s preliminary hearing of South Africa’s charge of genocide against Israel (referred to above), and secondly, its Advisory Opinion on ‘The Legal Consequences arising from the Policies and Practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem’, of 19 July 2024.

It is in the light of Amnesty’s report that the words parroted by senior politicians of the three principal political parties that ‘Israel has a right to defend itself’ sound so hollow, particularly since it is difficult to think of a single occasion when any senior British politician (pace Corbyn) over the past 57 years of illegal and repressive occupation, has stated that the Palestinians have a right to defend themselves. We should admit our shame and that our conceit that ‘Brits love the underdog’ is a sham. For 57 years the UK (like almost everyone else) has ducked its legal obligation under Common Article 1 of the 1949 Geneva Conventions ‘to respect and ensure respect for the present Convention in all circumstances’, meaning when you see another Party to the Convention violating it, you have a clear obligation to do what you can to bring it back into compliance.

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Local Democracy, or Devolved Administration?

Within the next few weeks the Labour government will publish its promised white paper on Devolution.  Reports so far suggest it will extend combined authorities with directly-elected mayors across the rest of England, abolish the remaining district councils and move to unitary councils covering parts of combined authorities – in practice a new two-tier system in which the relationship between combined-authority mayors and unitary councils will remain to be settled.  There’s unlikely to be any significant change in financial control from the centre or tax reform.  A move towards three-year settlements for central funding of local and combined authorities is more likely.

I’m not an expert on local government; nor do I know whether our party yet has an agreed position on how to respond.  I accept that the mayoral model in London works well – with a London Assembly to hold the mayor to account, and London borough councils to provide local services and representation.   The mayoral model is suitable for conurbations – though it needs (as in London) to be balanced by a representative assembly, with multiple local councils constituting it.  But I’m doubtful whether a similar model suits the rest of England.

In Yorkshire the consensus among MPs and council leaders was strongly for a regional body and local councils, if necessary also with elected mayors for the conurbations of West and South Yorkshire.  Instead the last government imposed upon us combined authorities both in North and East Yorkshire, with only two elected councils in each.  The imposition of a unitary authority across North Yorkshire has replaced district councils that covered distinct communities – Harrogate, Craven, Scarborough and Whitby, Richmondshire, and Selby – with a geographically vast area with a much smaller number of councillors.  York, however, was left outside, so an elected mayor and combined authority has therefore been imposed on two very different local authorities.  The combined authority and mayor for East Yorkshire will similarly sit over only two existing local authorities.

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A longer read: Green policies under fire

The politics of climate change has got a whole lot uglier.  ‘Saving the planet’ may make for good speeches to the party faithful but the political costs are now becoming more apparent.

The planned job losses in the car industry, including the closure of the Vauxhall (Stellantis) plant at Luton, have made the vision of ‘green jobs’ more difficult to sell. The industrial strategy I oversaw in the Coalition involved expansion of the car industry and a highlight was going to the USA to head off closures of Vauxhall’s plants and get a commitment to UK expansion. Now the industry has concluded that the mandatory target for sales of EVs (22% this year rising to 100% by 2030) is just too difficult. My successor as Business Secretary is having to revisit the policy.

Public warnings by experts of a short-term increase energy prices as we transition to renewable power has also sent nervous tremors through government ministers. Reform UK has smelt blood and sees political prey in the form of ‘net zero’. The Tories are keeping step with their rivals on the populist right. Long gone are the days when Margaret Thatcher led international opinion on the need to tackle climate change and her successors (up to and including Boris Johnson) could be relied upon to support a political consensus including mandating ‘net zero’ targets by legislation. Opposition politicians have sensed that the British public enthusiastically supports the fight against climate change but only if it doesn’t have to pay.

The budget was another warning sign of political nervousness. An obvious revenue raiser, and ‘green’ policy, was to raise petrol and diesel duties which have been frozen for over a decade by governments reluctant to upset motorists and lorry drivers. Nothing happened. With bus subsidies cut, and rail fares set to rise, there is yet another incentive to resist environmentally friendly change in transport.

A much bigger and more painful decision looms. Britain has an opportunity to make EV motoring much more accessible by importing large numbers of low-cost Chinese cars. China has, quite suddenly, become the world’s leading nation for car production and is poised to flood world markets with relatively cheap but high quality EVs. The EU has panicked over the threat to European producers and has thrown up tariff barriers. The USA already blocks Chinese imports. But Britain has an open market. Car industry jobs versus the greening of transport is precisely the kind of dilemma that politicians hate but will soon face.

In practice, the trade-offs can be made less painful by persuading the Chinese car companies like BYD to set up shop in the UK and produce locally. This was the strategy employed four decades ago with the Japanese companies which were then coming to dominate the industry: hence Nissan in Sunderland.

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Pippa Heylings MP writes… We can, and we will, make Roz Savage’s Climate and Nature Bill a reality

Last month, I had the privilege of attending COP29 in Baku and COP16 in Cali, where I took part in global negotiations on climate and nature. It’s clear to see that the global response to climate change is, at best, underwhelming. Climate change is the greatest threat we face—not only to world economies—but also to nature, which is our greatest ally in limiting its impact. And yet, we are still not acting swiftly enough to reduce carbon emissions.

For many, especially younger people, the process of COPs and their lack of concrete action gives a sense of anxiety. As it’s their futures that face the greatest risk, it’s more than understandable. Yet, I am, and continue to be, filled with hope. 

When I look back to when the UK passed the monumental Climate Change Act in 2008, I feel proud of the example it set all around the world. A lot has changed since 2008, and the impacts of our changing climate are no longer a distant story that we see on the news. They’re at home, in the UK, and are already having devastating impacts on our livelihoods—from more frequent and intense heat waves, storms, floods, droughts, coastal erosion, food supply disruption and expensive energy bills.

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Remembering Robert Woodthorpe-Browne MBE – notes from Liberal International Congress

Anyone who has been active within the liberal family in the UK, Europe or internationally would know of and remember Robert Woodthorpe-Browne MBE

As I write this blog from the 64th Congress of Liberal International in Santiago, Chile, I cannot help but think of him.  Were he still with us today, he would most certainly be at Congress, networking in Spanish like a local (just as he was as fluent in French and German), knowledgeable, affable and quintessentially internationalist.

The theme of this Congress was the Future of Freedom, apposite for this time in history, as we encounter the rise of populism in Europe and America, and escalating conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.  Indeed, this theme was explored in a round table discussion expertly led by Lord John Alderdice, on the Future of Liberalism.  I would like to share a few nuggets that I took away from the discussions.

Informed by history and philosophical thinkers such as Isaiah Berlin, John called on Liberals to seek a more thoughtful way forward.  What do we mean by freedom and liberty, he asked?  It could be negatively defined as freedom from oppression, or positively, as the freedom of choice, the ability to do what one chooses without fear or retribution.

John mentioned 3 important points:
1. We may be individuals, but we also exist through relationships, and we must consider the individual’s place in their community.
2. We assume that people have rational cognitive faculties, but we are also emotional beings who more often think emotionally.
3. Science itself is developing, complex systems engage with each other, opening up new possibilities.

Following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, there was an initial euphoria that liberal democracy had prevailed.   We have however since realised that that was not to be.  Instead, we have found ourselves in a world that is far more complex.  There was a need to recognize “plurality of values” and liberalism has to be relevant to the lives of ordinary people. 

As liberals our responsibility is to stay true to our roots, whilst at the same time, to be open to new ideas and tolerant of those with views which are different from ours.  John made reference to Ed Shapiro’s book “Finding a Place to Stand” (2020), encouraging self-reflection and asking the question even of those whom we disagree with (e.g. Trump): “What are they right about?”

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