Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Trump Told You So

By Tom Arms | Sat 26th October 2024 - 10:17 am

Dear Trump Supporters,

I thought of writing this open letter after the elections. But I decided that would be pointless because you really needed to read it before you voted.

Also, if I wrote it after the election, it was going to be an I-told-you-so missive which is never a nice thing to do, although it is very satisfying to the writer.

So, having dismissed the two options above, I thought the best thing to do is write a “Trump Told You So” letter or, as the election is yet to happen, “Trump Is Telling You So” letter.

The thinking behind my letter is that all you have to do is believe the words coming out of the man’s mouth to decide to cast your ballot for Kamala Harris. If you can’t bring yourself to do that, don’t vote at all, write-in your mother-in-law’s name or put an X next to the name of a third party candidate.

This letter will also include the actions of Donald Trump as well as the words because, as we all know, actions speak much, much louder than words.

Let’s start with the hot topic of immigration. Trump has said he wants to deport 20 million immigrants. Think about it. Twenty million people, some of which are certain to be your friend, neighbour, colleague, maybe even a relative.

And where will these 20 million be kept while waiting to be flown to the countries they fled. Rest assured, they won’t be staying at the local Hilton.

Finally, what about the cost? Twenty million people will be taken out of the economy. That it is twenty million people who produce and buy goods and services. If all they earned was $30,000 a year that means $600 billion would be taken out of the economy. But that is nothing compared to the price tag for police and enforcement agents to implement Trump’s plans.  It is estimated that will cost the taxpayer $850 billion.

As we are talking about money, how about Trump’s wider economic policies the key points of which are tariffs and taxes. Trump wants a 10-20 percent tariff on all imported goods and tariffs ranging from 60 percent to 500 percent (depending on which rally you attend) on Chinese goods.

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Matthew Ma

ALDC By-Election Report, 24th October

By Matthew Ma | Fri 25th October 2024 - 7:05 pm

The by-elections just won’t stop coming as 13 were held in England and Wales this week. The Conservatives and Lib Dems are the only parties that had made gains (4 and 1 respectively), while all others had lost seats. Labour’s recent poor performances continue, holding only 3 out of their 6 seats while losing the other 3 to the Tories; the final blue gain comes from an independent seat. In Wales, Plaid Cymru lost their only seat this week to an independent.

The Lib Dems were the only party to have gained seats from the Tories. In the Old Dean ward in Surrey Heath BC, where no Lib Dem candidate stood in the last election, Cllr Dave Hough managed to snatch the seat with an impressive margin of victory. In stark contrast, both the Labour and Conservative vote plummeted. Huge well done and congrats to Dave and the local team for treading new ground and fighting hard for this win!

Surrey Heath BC, Old Dean
Liberal Democrat (Dave Hough): 394 (44.7%, new)
Conservative: 278 (31.6%, -27.3%)
Reform: 109 (12.4%, new)
Labour: 96 (10.9%, -30.2%)
Independent: 4 (0.5%, new)

The Lib Dems were also the only party to have held all seats that they have defended. In Gateshead MBC, Cllr Susan Craig achieved a dominating victory by further growing the Lib Dem vote share to 64.6%, being the only candidate do have gained a significant amount of votes. Congratulations and thank you to Susan and the team for putting the hard work in Whickham North.

Gateshead MBC, Whickham North
Liberal Democrat (Susan Craig): 902 (64.6%, +6.7%)
Labour: 285 (20.4%, -6.3%)
Conservative: 137 (9.8%, +0.9%)
Green Party: 72 (5.2%, -1.3%)

The other hold by the Lib Dems comes from the Histon and Impington ward in South Cambridgeshire DC, where Cllr James Rixon maintained healthy 320 vote lead from the second place independent. The only constant between all seems to be that Labour’s vote share has collapsed. Congrats to James and the local team for putting in the work to retain this Lib Dem seat!

South Cambridgeshire DC, Histon & Impington
Liberal Democrat (James Rixon): 942 (38.7%, -2.3%)
Independent: 617 (25.3%, +4.1%)
Green: 420 (17.3%, +5.8%)
Conservative: 283 (11.6%, -0.1%)
Labour: 172 (7.1%, -7.4%)

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Michael Berwick-Gooding

What a Liberal Democrat budget could look like

By Michael Berwick-Gooding | Fri 25th October 2024 - 1:57 pm

The budget less than a week away will be a Labour budget, but what would a Liberal Democrat budget look like?

Jeremy Hunt’s last budget was expansionary (£13.875 billion) with cuts to national insurance contributions to boost the economy, as was his earlier financial statement (£13.73 billion) which also included cuts to national insurance contributions. These measures to some extent did work with growth of 0.7% January to March and 0.6% April to June. But growth has fallen away with no growth in July and only 0.2% in August. There is therefore a need for an expansionary budget.

A Liberal Democrat Chancellor of the Exchequer should start with reversing the cuts to the Winter Fuel Payment (costing £1.4bn), followed by ending the two-child benefit cap (costing about £3.4bn).

During the General Election we talked about the cost-of-living crisis. Therefore, we should provide financial assistance for pensioners and people on benefits as the Conservative Government had done. The Energy Cap from October is £100 less than last year, so the cost-of-living payments should be set at £200 which would be a one-off cost of about £3bn.

We also talked about the Conservatives putting up taxes for struggling families and pensioners by freezing income tax thresholds. Does this mean that we should expect a Liberal Democrat Chancellor of the Exchequer to unfreeze the income tax and national insurance thresholds by the rate of inflation (costing about £3bn)?

It was reported on Channel 4 News that according to the JRF households on benefits are £690 a year worse off in August this year compared to January 2021. We might expect that a Liberal Democrat Chancellor of the Exchequer would increase Universal Credit and the legacy benefits by £20 a week (costing about £7 billion over a full year), to begin to implement our policy ending deep poverty within a decade, but as it didn’t appear in the Manifesto this is unlikely in the present circumstances. However, a Liberal Democrat Chancellor might well implement our policies on Carer’s Allowance including increasing it by £20 a week (costing £1.45bn).

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The Voice

Maiden speeches: John Milne MP for Horsham

By The Voice | Fri 25th October 2024 - 12:00 pm

John Milne made his maiden speech on Tuesday 8th October during a debate on VAT: Independent Schools:

Here is the full text of the speech:

Thank you, Madam Deputy Speaker.

First, I would like to pay tribute to my predecessor, Sir Jeremy Quin, who represented Horsham for the last 10 years. He was a dedicated MP, and in my first couple of months I have heard praise from many constituents for his past help. An MP’s best work is often unsung and behind the scenes, and I intend to continue his campaigns on issues such as child trust funds.

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Mark Valladares

24 October 2024 – today’s press releases

By Mark Valladares | Thu 24th October 2024 - 11:30 pm
  • NAO Report on SEN provision: “urgent reform” needed, say Lib Dems
  • Nearly 6,000 crimes went unsolved every day last year
  • Government have “missed an open goal” on new football regulator, say Lib Dems
  • Reeves announcement: Chancellor must prioritise investment in crumbling hospitals
  • Cole-Hamilton: Greens have wasted £30m on care centralisation
  • Welsh Liberal Democrats demand action on NHS waiting lists

NAO Report on SEN provision: “urgent reform” needed, say Lib Dems

A new National Audit Office report has revealed that the Special Educational Needs (SEN) system is “financially unsustainable”, with 43% of councils at risk of effectively declaring bankruptcy.

It also found that there has been “no consistent improvement in outcomes for children and young people with SEN” since 2019, with 50% of children waiting more than the statutory 20-week target for an Education, Health and Care plan.

Responding to the report, Munira Wilson MP, the Liberal Democrat Spokesperson for Education, Children and Families, said:

Every child should get the help they need at nursery, in school and throughout their lives, to achieve all they can. But far too many children are being left to struggle because the support they need simply isn’t there.

The last Conservative Government woefully underfunded both schools and local councils, forcing thousands of parents to battle against a system that just isn’t working. That is unacceptable. No child, or their family, should have to wait so long or fight so hard to have their needs met.

Now this crisis is pushing councils to the brink of bankruptcy. I hope the Government will urgently reform the whole system to save council budgets and make sure children and parents get the support they need, without having to wait for months or go to court.

Nearly 6,000 crimes went unsolved every day last year

The Liberal Democrats have slammed the previous Conservative government’s “legacy of failure” as new statistics reveal the extent of unsolved crime in the year ending June 2024.

The figures were revealed by the Home Office’s own statistics on crime outcomes, released earlier this morning.

2,156,075 crimes went unsolved across England and Wales in the year ending June 2024, equivalent to 5,907 crimes going unsolved every day. Ths accounted for 40% of all crimes recorded that year.

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Mary Reid

Lib Dem councillors shortlisted for the Annual Cllr Awards

By Mary Reid | Thu 24th October 2024 - 2:46 pm

Back in August I was reminding you to nominate someone for the 2024 Councillor awards – actually that should be Cllr Awards – organised by the Local Government Information Unit.

The shortlists have just been announced for England and Wales and for Scotland, and I’m pleased to say there are two Lib Dems in the running.

Councillor Clare Apel is shortlisted for the Lifetime Legend Award. Clare has served for 25 years on Chichester District Council, where she is Chair of the Council, and she also sits on Chichester City Council.

Councillor Julia Neden-Watts is Joint Deputy Leader of Richmond Council and has been nominated for Innovator of the Year. She chairs Richmond’s Environment, Sustainability, Culture & Sports Committee.

The winners will be announced on 20th November.

Good luck to both of them!

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Mary Reid

Why is Autumn Conference always in Brighton or Bournemouth?

By Mary Reid | Thu 24th October 2024 - 1:01 pm

I sat on the Federal Conference Committee (FCC) for several years – which I thoroughly enjoyed – and like most newbies I asked questions about the venues we used. Why do we seem to rotate the Autumn Conference between two towns on the south coast? What about other places further north with good Conference facilities? The reasons soon became apparent.

FCC does look at as many potential Conference venues as possible, and in the end it comes down to two things – facilities and cost.

Nick da Costa is the current Chair of FCC and he is regularly asked the same questions by members, so he has published a paper that breaks down the issues in some details. You can read it here.  It is rather long, and includes some useful tables and charts, but here are some extracts:

The Conference Office and FCC regularly review future venues; this is an iterative process, and we regularly review over 40 venues in relation to costs, suitability and availability. We have looked at venues in Scotland, Wales and in England, and continually try to identify new opportunities.

In many cases, unfortunately, the venues are simply either far too expensive for our budget, or are simply not suitable for our requirements.

For example –

  • Lack sufficient accessible fringe space 
  • Lack a suitable conference hotel within easy reach of the main conference venue
  • Have insufficient back of house space for the many staff and volunteers who make Conference happen and contribute to its success
  • Too expensive
  • Unsatisfactory transport links

The document goes on to list the requirements in more detail.

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The Voice

Maiden speeches: Rachel Gilmour MP for Tiverton & Minehead

By The Voice | Thu 24th October 2024 - 10:10 am

Rachel Gilmour made her maiden speech on Monday 14th October during a debate on the Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Bill:

Here is the full text of the speech:

Thank you for calling me to make my maiden speech, Madam Deputy Speaker. Before I do, may I commend Figen Murray and her family and friends for the excellent campaign they have continued, completely selflessly? I am sure it will save the lives of hundreds, if not thousands of people. They are a great example to us all.

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Mark Valladares

23 October 2024 – today’s press releases

By Mark Valladares | Wed 23rd October 2024 - 11:50 pm
  • LGA Conference: some councils see one-third of spending taken up by adult social care
  • Octopus Energy: use windfall to stop Winter Fuel Payment cuts

LGA Conference: some councils see one-third of spending taken up by adult social care

  • Liberal Democrat Local Government spokesperson Vikki Slade has told the Local Government Association Conference today (23rd October) that councils face a “social care blackhole” in their finances
  • Figures reveal that council’s are now spending £23.3 billion a year on adult social care – a 62% rise compared to 2015/16’s expenditure
  • Some areas see adult social care taking up more than a third of council spending

Lib Dem Local Government spokesperson Vikki Slade has today warned of a social care blackhole in council finances at her speech to the Local Government Association Conference and called for cross party talks on social care with the Party revealing that some Local Authorities now see one-third of their expenditure taken up by adult social care.

It comes as many councils are teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, much of it as a result of increases to social care costs, with the LGA estimating that councils now face a £6.2 billion funding gap over the next two years.

The data from the House of Commons Library shows that there has been a 62% increase in council expenditure on adult social social care since 2015/16, with it rising by £8.9 billion, from £14.4 billion to 23.3 billion.

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Caron Lindsay

Daisy’s PMQs Debut

By Caron Lindsay | Wed 23rd October 2024 - 8:12 pm

With Keir Starmer out of the country, it was down to the deputies to take the stage at Prime Minister’s Questions. Angela Rayner and Daisy Cooper put in their first appearance of the new Parliament in their new roles. For Conservative Oliver Dowden, it was his last in the role. There was very funny love in with menaces between him and Rayner in their exchanges. It was a bit like a seaside comedy show. The serious stuff came when Daisy asked her two questions.

 

May I associate myself and the Liberal Democrats with the Deputy Prime Minister’s remarks about Chris Hoy, and about all those involved in the train crash?

Our NHS is bracing itself for a winter crisis. One of the causes of the winter crisis every year is that there are thousands of people in hospitals who are fit to go home, but who cannot be discharged because there are not the care workers in place to enable people to recover at home or in a care home. Will the Deputy Prime Minister consider the Liberal Democrats’ idea of an NHS winter taskforce to winter-proof our NHS, end the cycle of the winter crisis, and put to an end the scandal of hospital patients paying the price of the social care crisis left by the Conservatives?

I thank the hon. Lady for her comments, and I share her desire to ensure that care workers are given the respect and importance that they deserve. They are critical to solving the problems in our national health service. The Labour party will create a national care service, and we are launching our first ever fair pay agreement for care professionals to boost recruitment and retention. We must get the NHS back on its feet after the disaster of the Conservatives, and my right hon. Friend the Chancellor will have more to say on that in the Budget.

Daisy kept to the same theme for the second question, talking of the dangers to the care sector of increasing employers’ National Insurance contributions, something she had mentioned in her Sky News interview on Sunday:

I thank the Deputy Prime Minister for her answer. We stand ready, as a party of constructive opposition, to work with the Government to fix our social care system. However, a measure that could make it harder for us to keep the carers that we so desperately need would be an increase in employers’ national insurance contributions. Were that measure to go ahead, it would affect millions of small businesses, including 18,000 small care providers. Will the Deputy Prime Minister assure the House that nothing in the Budget will make it harder for vulnerable people to access the care workers and the care that they desperately need?

A bit of flannel from Rayner in return, but at least the job of setting out our position had been done:

Again, I will not speculate on the Budget, not least with the Chancellor sat beside me. To reiterate what the Chancellor and the Prime Minister have said, this Budget will recognise that working people of this country and enterprise in this country have been hard-hit by 14 years of the Conservatives. We will rebuild Britain, and we will grow our economy to pay for our public services.

Rayner had to face another three Lib Dems in the session. This is great to see, and likely to be more commonplace now that we make up more than 10% of the House.

First up was Monica Harding who had a heartbreaking story of a young boy in her constituency who has been out of school for a year because they don’t have the right special needs provision for him.

Charlie from my constituency is an eight-year-old boy with an autism diagnosis who has been out of school for almost a year. He is one of 1,800 children in Surrey missing school because of a lack of appropriate special educational needs provision. Will the Government commit to ending this scandal by properly funding special educational needs provision in next week’s Budget, so that children like Charlie, in my constituency of Esher and Walton and beyond, are no longer let down?

Angela Rayner was sympathetic but had nothing concrete to offer:

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Lord William Wallace

Are we ready for US election chaos, or for President Trump?

By Lord William Wallace | Wed 23rd October 2024 - 2:22 pm

Liberal Democrats will be hoping that the nightmare of the US presidential campaign will be over on November 5th, with a clear win for Kamala Harris, accepted by Donald Trump, leading Republicans and state and federal courts.  But at present that looks the least likely outcome.  More likely by far will be either a contested result, after chaotic events during the voting and state counts, or a narrow Trump victory with chaotic consequences for US politics and foreign policy.  Either will have major implications for British politics and foreign policy.

The continuing rumble of opinion polls suggests a virtual tie between Harris and Trump, with the outcome dependent on who turns out among the small minority of undecideds.  Challenges to names on voting registers are under way in several states.  Counting may well be disrupted; there were some assaults on election counts four years ago, and the atmosphere has become more fraught since then.  Republican local organisations are ready to use the courts to challenge any contestable declaration or hint of malpractice.  We may not be sure who has won for some time.  And the consequences of a Trump win are as uncertain as the candidate’s utterances have become.  So how should we react to what will be an assault on the principles of liberal democracy and on the transatlantic partnership which has been at the core of the UK’s position in the world since 1941?   

One Liberal Democratic theme, I suggest, must be to remind disillusioned citizens in this country of the importance of constitutional institutions and limited government, and the dangers of sliding down the road towards populist rule.  Britain has just emerged from several years of chaotic government, with a populist prime minister attempting to prevent Parliament from returning from a recess when he had been in office himself for only s few months.  We have witnessed right-wing attacks on our supreme court, an Elections Act that lifted constraints on political donations and restricted the autonomy of the Electoral Commission, and Conservative ministers supporting conspiracy theories about ‘liberal elites’.  We now have a Labour government which has won the most disproportional parliamentary majority since 1832: 63.4% of MPs from 33.7% of the votes cast, on a worryingly low turnout of 58%.  Public trust in ‘Westminster politics’ has sunk to the lowest recorded point since opinion surveys began.  The potential for an anti-democratic backlash, if this government fails to improve both economic growth and public services, is high.

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The Voice

Maiden speeches: Steff Aquarone MP for North Norfolk

By The Voice | Wed 23rd October 2024 - 12:04 pm

Steff Aquarone made his maiden speech on Tuesday 15th October during a debate on the House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill:

Here is the full text of the speech:

Hello! It is a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Mid and South Pembrokeshire (Henry Tufnell), and I extend my warmest regards to all the Members making their maiden speeches today.

First, I would like to acknowledge my predecessor, Duncan Baker. He was an attentive and hard-working Member, and I wish him well in his future pursuits in industry. Before him, Norman Lamb served in this House for 19 years and left an extraordinary legacy in the realm of mental health, a cause that he continues to be a dedicated advocate for. It was in no small part Norman’s commitment to speaking the truth to power and giving a voice to the voiceless that made him such a hero to the people of North Norfolk, and which attracted me to politics fully seven years ago, when I was first elected as a county councillor—and I draw Members’ attention to the Register of Members’ Financial Interests in connection with my continued role there.

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Mark Valladares

22 October 2024 – today’s press releases

By Mark Valladares | Tue 22nd October 2024 - 10:30 pm
  • Borrowing and debt figures: Burden must not fall on hard working households
  • Water Commission: More urgency needed to reform industry
  • Over one million 12 hour A&E waits this year as Lib Dems call on Chancellor to “winterproof” the NHS at the Budget
  • Braverman: Conservative leadership candidates must rule out shadow cabinet role
  • Jardine Introduces Bill to Improve Support for Bereaved Children
  • Cole-Hamilton: A&E in crisis as winter looms

Borrowing and debt figures: Burden must not fall on hard working households

Commenting on the latest figures on the public sector’s level of borrowing and debt, Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesperson Daisy Cooper MP said:

Today’s figures highlight the difficult position of our public finances after years of mismanagement under the previous Conservative Government – but this can’t be an excuse for the Chancellor to make the wrong decisions at the Budget.

We need to see urgent investment in our NHS and public services which have been reduced to their knees and bold action to fix our crumbling schools and hospitals.

The burden of fixing the Conservatives’ mess mustn’t fall on hard working households, but on the big banks, social media companies and oil and gas giants that can afford to pay a small amount of their soaring profits to get our public services back on their feet.

Water Commission: More urgency needed to reform industry

Responding to the government announcing a new Independent Water Commission, Liberal Democrat Environment spokesperson Tim Farron MP said:

Far more urgency is needed from the government on tackling the disgraced water industry, which has been allowed to get away with endless environmental scandals for too long.

Even before this Commission begins, the government should be getting on with introducing a new regulator with real teeth and power to get hold of these profiteering firms.

Whilst a review of the industry is welcome, it should not be used as a tool to kick the can down the road on immediate reforms.

Sadly, the government’s approach is still a job half done. It is time to put an end to profit before the environment in the water industry, and an end to this national scandal.

Over one million 12 hour A&E waits this year as Lib Dems call on Chancellor to “winterproof” the NHS at the Budget

  • NHS braced for another winter crisis as figures reveal a 20% rise in 12 hour A&E waits so far this year
  • Worst hit areas have seen a six-fold increase in 12 hour A&E waits compared to last year
  • Lib Dems warn this is a “life or death” issue and call on government to announce new ring-fenced fund in the Budget to end winter crises in the health service

Over one million patients have faced waits of 12 hours or more in A&E in England so far this year, up a fifth compared to the same period last year, new data uncovered by the Liberal Democrats has revealed.

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Ben Wood

What we need is not constant ‘growth’ or complete ‘degrowth’ but intelligent economic development

By Ben Wood | Tue 22nd October 2024 - 5:21 pm

In his recent article, John Hills offers some helpful reflections about the political future of the LibDems. As John writes: ‘It is necessary to go beyond individual policies and good ideas, to find our narrative; not just of what we believe, but more tangibly, what we stand for.’ I couldn’t agree more. The most intriguing aspect of John’s piece is his suggestion that while we have recently focused on disillusioned Conservatives, we would be wise to reach out to other political tribes, particularly Green-facing voters. John is right to say that LibDems continue to tell a good story about the environment (see our recent campaigning on the state of the UK’s rivers). He is also right that we should focus on what is distinctive in our offering; a kind of pivot and diverge strategy. But we have to be careful concerning the divergence aspect of the equation.

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The Voice

Maiden speeches: Ben Maguire MP for North Cornwall

By The Voice | Tue 22nd October 2024 - 4:55 pm

Ben Maguire made his maiden speech on Thursday 10th October in a debate entitled “Sport: TeamGB and ParalympicsGB”:

Here is the full text of the speech:

Many congratulations to the hon. Member for West Bromwich (Sarah Coombes) on an excellent maiden speech.

It is the greatest honour of my life to be giving my maiden speech in this place as the Member for my home constituency of North Cornwall, where I was born and brought up. I will always be grateful to the people of North Cornwall for putting their trust in me. There are unfortunately too many supporters, friends and family to thank for their hard work and dedication in getting me to this place, but I must say a special thanks to my mother, Jennifer, my father, Joseph, and my husband, Manuel, for their unwavering love and support; and a huge thank you to my agent and sister, Rosie. To every single member of my campaign: you are quite simply the best team that any candidate could wish for and you have showed such amazing dedication to our area. I would not be here without you and I will not let you down.

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The Voice

Maiden speeches: David Chadwick MP for Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe

By The Voice | Tue 22nd October 2024 - 12:31 pm

David Chadwick made his maiden speech on Tuesday 8th October during a debate on Farming & Food Security:

Here is the full text of the speech:

I stand here as the first ever MP for Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. It is the largest constituency in England and Wales, and I therefore have a foot in two worlds—one in rural mid-Wales and the other in the Swansea valley. I wish to pay tribute to my predecessors, Fay Jones and Christina Rees, for their commitment to Welsh politics and their service to these communities.

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The Voice

Maiden speeches: Vikki Slade MP for Mid Dorset & North Poole

By The Voice | Tue 22nd October 2024 - 9:00 am

Vikki Slade made her maiden speech on Thursday 10th October in a debate entitled “Sport: TeamGB and ParalympicsGB”:

Here is the full text:

Thank you, Madam Deputy Speaker, for calling me to make my maiden speech in this uplifting debate to celebrate the success of the Olympics and Paralympics. I congratulate the hon. Member for Warrington South (Sarah Hall); I completely agree with her sentiments about children who are beneath the radar, and I will do everything I can to ensure that they are lifted and seen.

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Mark Valladares

21 October 2024 – today’s press releases

By Mark Valladares | Mon 21st October 2024 - 11:45 pm
  • NHS national conversation: Govt must show ambition to fix Conservatives mess or “risks becoming a talking shop”
  • Social Care: Govt kicking the can down the road yet again
  • McArthur responds to First Minister “wrestling” with assisted dying

NHS national conversation: Govt must show ambition to fix Conservatives mess or “risks becoming a talking shop”

Responding to the government’s announcement that it will begin a ‘national conversation’ about the future of the NHS, Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey said:

The government must show the ambition needed to fix the awful damage done by the Conservatives to the NHS and care, or this exercise risks becoming a talking shop.

We know that primary care services across the country are at the brink of collapse due to the Conservative Party’s disgraceful neglect, with patients paying the price.

Whether it is sky-high GP waiting lists, endless ambulance response times, or a failure to diagnose cancer in time, none of these issues can be fixed without fixing the crisis in social care.

That is why the Liberal Democrats will make sure that social care is part of the debate and push for a cross party solution to this crisis.

Social Care: Govt kicking the can down the road yet again

Responding to Care Minister Stephen Kinnock’s comments that the government’s plan to reform social care will be published “in the next 12 months”, Liberal Democrat Health and Social Care spokesperson Helen Morgan MP said:

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Mark Valladares

21-25 October 2024 – this week in the Lords

By Mark Valladares | Mon 21st October 2024 - 2:03 pm

I really ought to get better at producing this mostly erratic column. After all, with all those new MPs on the green benches, the prospects of decent coverage of our Parliamentary Party in the Lords fall somewhat, and they’re still as busy as ever…

We’ll start with a quick trot through the business for the week.

There are four Bills before their Lordships’ House this week:

Naturally, the Liberal Democrats have been busy teasing out the Government’s plans on railway passenger services and facilities, with strong interventions two weeks ago from Bill Bradshaw (a former General Manager of British Rail’s Western Region), Caroline Pidgeon (making her maiden speech), Ros Scott, Sal Brinton and, of course, our Transport Spokesperson, Jenny Randerson.

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Leon Duveen

Assisted Dying and Palliative Care; it isn’t a choice, we need both.

By Leon Duveen | Mon 21st October 2024 - 11:04 am

With Kim Leadbeater’s Private Members Bill on Assisted Dying comes up for its Second Reading at the end of next month, now is a good time for us to be talking about the issues involved and why it should never be a choice for those facing a diagnosis of a fatal illness between giving them a choice when and how they die if they wish or providing them the best quality palliative care to allow them to live as long as possible. Both are needed and the debate about the bill must not be about choosing between the two.

Much is spoken about how palliative care can and does help those with a terminal illness deal with physical pain during their illness. In hospitals, in hospices and at home, helping those facing death live their life as fully as possible. Such care also helps those close to the patient by sharing the support needed, both physical & psychologically.

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Mark Valladares

Welcome to my day: 21 October 2024 – you’d wonder why anyone would be a councillor…

By Mark Valladares | Mon 21st October 2024 - 7:24 am

As I may have noted before, I’m a parish councillor in a small, but perfectly-formed, village in Suffolk’s Gipping Valley. And, generally, the role isn’t that stressful. After all, my council provides no services of a life or death nature, nor do we provide services which impact hugely on people’s lives, like education, social care or housing. But, even here, there can be contentious issues which impact on us. Planning applications for example, and whilst we have no decision making powers there either, as a statutory consultee, our residents expect us to represent their views to the powers that be. They believe, not unreasonably, that the powers that be must listen to us – if only that were true. And discussions can get a bit heated, even when party politics isn’t in play.

But I’ve been, on the whole, pretty lucky. I’ve received very little hassle, and all of that has come from outsiders. But I was reminded at the weekend that, that is increasingly not true of my fellow councillors at all tiers of local government. A report issued by the Local Government Association on Saturday noted that, in a survey of its members, 22% of respondents stated that they had received death threats or threats of violence against them.

And it’s not just the public who can make life difficult or impossible for an individual councillor. Opposition councillors and, even more depressingly, members of your own Party can be the source of behaviour that is designed to humiliate, embarrass or even frighten you. Too many of us have witnessed that, or been the victim of it.

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Mark Valladares

19-20 October 2024 – the weekend’s press releases

By Mark Valladares | Sun 20th October 2024 - 10:30 pm
  • Water company bonuses rise this year despite sewage scandal
  • 2024 on track to be record worst year for cancer care
  • Cole-Hamilton reveals dozens of dentists retiring early in NHS exodus
  • Only 7 days when CalMac sailings ran to timetable in 15 months

Water company bonuses rise this year despite sewage scandal

  • Shocking research finds water company executives paid themselves more in bonuses and pensions this year
  • England and Wales water firms hand out £9.1million in bonuses to executives this year
  • Thames Water, Severn Trent and South West Water worst offenders for paying executives even more in bonuses this year
  • Liberal Democrats call for immediate ban on water company bonuses

Shocking new research by the Liberal Democrats has revealed water company executive bonuses have risen to £9.1m in 2023/2024.

The bosses of disgraced firms received over £20m in total, including basic pay, pension contributions and bonuses.

The party’s annual Sewage Bonus Tracker using analysis of Company House records, found water firms including Thames Water, Severn Trent and South West Water all increased their bonus pool for executives, despite polluting waterways with raw sewage.

The new findings come despite 2023 being a record year for the amount of sewage dumped into waterways, with Environment Agency data revealing more than 3.6m hours of sewage flowed into rivers and seas, up a staggering 105% annually.

Thames Water bonus payouts to executives almost double year-on-year, from £746,000 in 2022/2023 to a staggering £1.3m 2023/2024. This is despite Thames Water’s CEO quitting halfway through the year following financial issues.

The biggest bonus payout for executives was by Severn Trent, who paid their 3 executives an eye-watering £3.3million in bonuses, an increase year-on-year.

Pension contributions for water company executives rose to a new high of £1.7m this year. Thames Water paid their executives £754,000 in pension contributions alone last year.

Base pay for water company executives also remained at over £9m last year, with just one executive at Northumbrian Water paying themselves £421,000.

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Jack Carter

Are we still the party of Beveridge?

By Jack Carter | Sun 20th October 2024 - 12:24 pm

The Liberal Democrats, ran on a manifesto focusing on health and social care. However upon reading it on the day of its release I was disappointed – because it actually said very little about reforming welfare. To put this in blunt terms, approximately 24 percent of the United Kingdom’s population is disabled – we had, in our manifesto, three insubstantial commitments on welfare reform for disabled people. That is not nearly good enough.

As Rachel Reeves’ first budget approaches, with new announcements on welfare “reforms” being made – including £3 billion in welfare cuts, it is a scary time to be a disabled person reliant upon the welfare state. With “workfare” being put before healthcare, it is estimated up to 500,000 people suffering from long-term sickness will be forced back into work, just so HMRC can drum up some more tax revenue. We must stand firmly against this cacophony of harmful policies, one of which includes putting job coaches on mental health wards, where vulnerable patients are receiving care for often severe mental health conditions. The Labour Party also wants to cut benefits for mentally ill people, which would imply they do not view mental health conditions to be valid as disabilities – an ableist notion.

So, I put to you, the reader, the first of two simple yet blunt questions; where is our opposition to these harmful policies which will disproportionately hurt the most vulnerable in our society? I have looked at our party’s social media pages, I have looked at the social media pages of our Members of Parliament, and I must say I am bitterly disappointed. Make no mistake, our party has not done nearly enough to regain the trust of disabled people, and I say that as someone who disabled. We have not been a voice for the disabled community, we have not stood with them nor have we acknowledged our responsibility for the policies which harmed them, during the 2010-2015 coalition government.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 20th October 2024 - 10:27 am

Middle East

Every geopolitical shift offers opportunities and dangers. The escalating war in the Middle East is no exception.

At the moment the world is focused on the dangers. But the opportunities are there as the major players realise the need to step back from the brink and consider measures that were hitherto unthinkable in order to avoid a catastrophe nobody wants.

The biggest opportunity could involve Iran’s nuclear weapons programme.

There is a strong body of opinion in the US and Israel that the best way to deal with Iran’s nuclear weapons programme is to destroy it. The problem with that is three-fold:
1- You cannot destroy the know-how
2- the necessary installations are deep underground, heavily protected and would probably require direct American involvement and
3- Destruction of Iran’s nuclear installations would only increase hatred of Israel and the US.

Many Israelis and Americans also fear that a religiously-zealous Iran would use nuclear weapons against Israel—and possibly the US—as soon as they acquire them.

Rubbish. The Iranians may be religious extremists, but they are not stupid. They know that they would be wiped out in any nuclear exchange.

To them a nuclear weapon is a deterrent against an Israeli—or possibly joint US-Israeli—nuclear or overwhelming conventional attack.

However, nuclear weapons do give Iran greater flexibility in any conventional scenario as any potential enemy would think twice about attacking a nuclear-armed Iran. This would mean a serious movement in the Middle East goalposts.

So how can the US (with Israel looming large in the background) and the Mullahs avoid escalation and a nuclear Iran. From the Iranian side, Washington would expect Tehran to immediately stop refining and testing missiles and enriching U-235 and converting it to fissile material. From the US-Israeli side, Iran would expect guarantees that Iran would not be attacked by either Israel or the US.

Iran is reckoned by the CIA to be seven months away from having THE bomb. An agreement could freeze development at the current level—or slightly more advanced– so that if it was attacked, Iran could quickly move to a nuclear capable position.

The above scenario is not impossible. According to intelligence sources, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini has not given the final go-ahead for nuclear weapons. He has also told newly-elected President Masoud Pazeshkian that he can resume nuclear negotiations with the five members of the Security Council and Germany.

There are other important tangential issues including: Iranian support for Russia’s war in Ukraine; Iranian support for Hezbollah and the Houthis; Israeli attacks on Hezbollah; Saudi and UAE attacks on the Houthis; the Syrian civil war; Western sanctions against Iran and Iran and China’s growing economic co-dependency.

All of —or some of—these issues could be dealt with as part of nuclear talks. Or nuclear talks could open the door to separate discussions on these problems.

European Union

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy has called it the “EU Reset.” It started this week with Lammy attending a regular meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg. The Foreign Office has promised more of the same.

The talks were on big global security issues—China, Russia, Ukraine, the Middle East, US elections—all those things on which it is very easy for the UK and EU to agree. Not on the agenda was the EU-UK 2020 Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) which continues to bedevil or threaten to bedevil EU-UK relations.

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Caron Lindsay

Daisy Cooper says no to fuel and NI rises and yes to more investment in public services

By Caron Lindsay | Sun 20th October 2024 - 9:59 am

Daisy Cooper was on Sunday with Trevor Phillips on Sky News. As our new Treasury Spokesperson, she was asked about what she wanted to see in the Budget.

But first, she was asked whether she accepted the Government’s narrative about the £22 billion black hole in the public finances.

She replied that there was no doubt that Conservatives left the economy in a mess. There may be an  argument about  the 22 billion number but what people want to know is if public services are going to get better. Are they going to get the health and social care they need?

She said that we were deeply uncomfortable about the rumoured increase in National Insurance employers’ contribution  because of the effect on smaller businesses. In particular, she mentioned how this might affect small care companies and that might lead to even more care home closures and increase the crisis in care.

However, we would support taxing banks and gambling companies and changing fiscal rules to allow more investment to build more schools and hospitals.

Another rumour is that fuel duty is going to go up for the first time in 15 years. Daisy said that we were concerned about the impact of doing this during a cost of living crisis. If there was a viable alternative with good public transport it might be easier to stomach. The burden of cleaning up the  Tory mess should be on big companies, not on ordinary people.

She was pressed by Phillips about the effect of our proposals on taxing banks. What impact would that have on our savings and pensions? She answered that the four or five biggest banks made £40 billion in profit and we want to reverse the tax cuts they have had which could raise just a tenth of that,  a small amount of money for them,  to help turn our public services around.

She said that we would have to look at the budget as a whole but would likely vote against a rise in employers’ NI contribution.

The main Liberal Democrat priority for the Budget was to see health and social care. Daisy talked about her own experience of serious illness and her Crohn’s diagnosis:

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Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Navalny v. Putin

By Tom Arms | Sat 19th October 2024 - 10:22 am

Alexei Navalny’s memoirs are adamant: Putin’s Russia is based on corruption and “lies, nothing but lies.”

“It will,” he has written,  inevitably “crumble and collapse.”

The late Navalny’s scathing assessment is a central theme in his memoir “Patriot” which is published this coming week in 11 different languages.

Russia is a modern-day feudal state wrapped in the flag of nationalism and plagued with corruption, bribery, kleptocracy, cronyism, a crooked judicial system, and suppressed media and personal freedoms.

There are an estimated 100 oligarchs at the top of the Russian heap. Their cumulative net worth is about $500 billion. The exact number of oligarchs is constantly shifting as the man at the apex of this structure—one Vladimir Putin—likes to keep his underlings on their toes by firing, imprisoning and assassinating any oligarchs that dare to veer from fawning fidelity.

Putin himself is one of the wealthiest man in the world with estimates of his net worth ranging from $180 to $200 billion. His money is derived mainly from kickbacks and bribes from oligarchs who rely on his favour for their billions. Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index ranks Russia at 141 out of 180 countries.

A prime example of this feudal-type corruption is the 2014 Winter Olympics at Sochi. At $50 billion they were the costliest Olympics in history. They didn’t need to be. It is estimated that a third of the bill went in kickbacks and cost overruns. The contractors were childhood friends of Putin, Arkady and Boris Rotenberg. Their construction company was the only one allowed to bid for the Sochi contract. They secured the contract to build the Kerch Strait Bridge linking Russia and Crimea on the same terms.

Exposing Russian corruption is a risky business. Navalny was a leading exponent of it. He was poisoned with Novichok in 2021. After recovering in Germany, he returned to Russia to be immediately arrested and imprisoned. He died in a remote prison in February.

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Matthew Ma

ALDC By-Election Report, 17th October

By Matthew Ma | Fri 18th October 2024 - 6:21 pm

It’s back-to-back by-election gargantuan week for by-elections as we see 16 held this Thursday. It was another disaster week for Labour: they only held half of the 8 seats they were defending, losing 3 seats to the Tories and 1 to the Greens. The Tories and Plaid Cymru both held onto all their seats (2 and 1 respectively). The Lib Dems were the only party to be contesting all 16, holding 4 out of 5 seats.

The most dominant result of the Lib Dems no doubt belongs to Cllr Tim Bloomer in the Grange & Cartmel ward of Westmorland & Furness BC. The Lib Dem vote share grew to a staggering 84.8%. Congratulations and a huge well done to Tim and the local team for the triumphant win.

Westmorland & Furness BC, Grange & Cartmel
Liberal Democrat (Tim Bloomer): 2180 (84.8%, +7.6%)
Conservative: 392 (15.2%, -3.5%)

Two by-elections in Stockport MBC were also comfortable Lib Dem holds. Cllr Rachel Bresnahan in the Bredbury Green & Romiley ward further grew the already high Lib Dem vote to 65.8%, close to tripling the vote of second place conservatives. Big congrats to Rachel and the team for making this win a reality.

Stockport LBC, Bredbury Green & Romiley
Liberal Democrat (Rachel Bresnahan): 1506 (65.8%, +7.1%)
Conservative: 552 (24.1%, +5.5%)
Labour: 127 (5.5%, -11.4%)
Green Party: 104 (4.5%, -1.2%)

The other hold in Stockport MBC sees Cllr Huma Khan winning the seat in the Cheadle West & Gatley ward with over 45% of the vote.

Stockport MBC, Cheadle West & Gatley
Liberal Democrat (Huma Khan): 1159 (45.1%, -12.0%)
Conservative: 553 (21.5%, +7.3%)
Labour: 517 (20.1%, +0.5%)
Green Party: 341 (13.3%, +4.2%)

The final hold of the week sees the Lib Dems in Tirymynach of Ceredigion CC successfully defending previously uncontested seat. The Lib Dems were to only ones out of all the major parties in England to have a significant amount of votes in this seat. Congratulations to Cllr Gareth Lewis and the team for winning the Welsh seat.

Ceredigion CC, Tirymynach
Liberal Democrat (Gareth Lewis): 285 (48.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 242 (41.5%)
Reform: 25 (4.3%)
Conservative: 17 (2.9%)
Labour: 8 (1.4%)
Green Party: 6 (1.0%)

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Tell the Chancellor – don’t let the inflation rate fall be bad news for the poorest

By Michael Berwick-Gooding and Katharine Pindar | Fri 18th October 2024 - 2:29 pm

The fall in inflation to 1.7% this week from 2.2% in August should be good news for borrowers, but it could result in a blow to benefit recipients. Although the rate is expected by the Resolution Foundation to rise shortly again to 2.2%, the September inflation rate is that which determines the annual uprating of welfare benefits next April.

For all the difficult decisions facing the Chancellor as she finalises her Autumn Budget, for her to increase the annual uprating of benefits above the rate of inflation should be demanded by our party. If the increase was 2.2% instead of 1.7% this would give a couple over 25 more than £30 a month extra.

The rate of Universal Credit is already inadequate, as our party’s policies in its Fairer Society motion recognised. Now this is starkly spelt out again in a new report from the Trussell Trust, the major food bank provider, called The Cost of Hunger and Hardship. It says that record numbers of people in Britain, 9.3 million or 14% of the population, including 3 million, 20.9%, of children are facing hunger and hardship, which they define as being more than 25% below the Social Metrics Commission’s poverty line (which the SMC define as the amount ‘people actually have to have to cover daily living costs’).

Universal Credit is failing to protect people, the report asserts (p.24), ‘Almost four in ten (39%) people in families claiming Universal Credit (5.4 million) face hunger and hardship’. ‘Over half of people living in hunger and hardship – 58% – live in a working family, while 35% live in families where no-one is working, and 5% are in retired families’ (p 25).

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The Voice

Maiden speeches: Roz Savage, MP for South Cotswolds

By The Voice | Fri 18th October 2024 - 11:57 am

Roz Savage made her maiden speech last week. You may remember that we highlighted her last week, after her success in being given the chance to introduce a private members bill on Climate Change and Nature. However she choose the Farming and Food Security Bill for her maiden speech.

And here is the full text:

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William Francis

We should oppose any mass surveillance in Labour’s Fraud Bill

By William Francis | Fri 18th October 2024 - 8:47 am

In Citizen’s Britain Paddy Ashdown argued that despite the Conservative government’s claims of “rolling back the frontiers of the state”, they were in fact spending more and more on social control, coercion, and surveillance. The closing months of Sunak’s government echoed this aspect of the Thatcher era, with it planning to introduce mass surveillance legislation, which now could be implemented under the present Labour government.

The Data Protection and Digital Information Bill, which the Conservative’s failed to pass before this year’s general election, included surveillance provisions would have forced banks to monitor the accounts of all means-tested benefits claimants, and report every time an account went over the capital limit, or was used abroad for more than four weeks. It would have also empowered designated DWP staff to arrest claimants, search premises and seize any evidence they found without needing to use the police. Such legislation had the potential to create a Horizon-style scandal on a horrific scale, given how DWP software had wrongly flagged over 200,000 people over the last three years for investigation for suspected benefit fraud and error.

Though the details concerning Labour’s Fraud, Error and Debt Bill haven’t been made public recent comments by Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Liz Kendall worryingly indicate people on benefits would be under similar surveillance. The Fraud bill would require banks and other financial institutions to check examine their own data sets to highlight cases of potential benefit fraud, to help the DWP investigate fraud and incorrect payments. Though Kendall made assurances that “only a minimum amount of data will be accessed” and that this would be done in a “legal, proportionate and targeted” manner, groups like Big Brother Watch and Campaign for Disability Justice remain highly sceptical that the government will be so restrained. They have every right to be, given the authoritarian tendencies of the New Labour governments.

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