Category Archives: Op-eds

Personal reflection; thank you 2025 and let’s make the most of 2026!

2025 has been a good year! It has quite a few ups and a few downs, however as humans, we have an amazing ability to adapt and embrace the most difficult challenges. I had many moments when I thought: “what’s the point of all of this” and many moments, when I felt energised, driven and highly motivated.

From a professional perspective, I have experienced quite a few changes; after many years and some amazing experiences, I left my full-time job with the Community Alliance Broxbourne and East Herts and I started a new role with the North Herts and Stevenage CVS. I am very pleased that I set up my consultancy, something that I have always wanted to do. I already have an opportunity to work on a number of existing projects, which included development work as well as running several workshops.

I also became a Deputy Mayor of Welwyn Hatfield, something that I would never think was possible. For me this new chapter hasn’t changed my approach to the Local Government, which is all about the service, being an enabler and a catalyst for residents and communities.

Is there a magic ingredient, which makes it all possible? No, there isn’t. Every day has its own good and difficult moments. It is up to us to make the most of each moment that is given to us. I think that our mind-set can be often our greatest ally or enemy. It is so important to look after ourselves, find the right work-life balance, enjoy the company of friends, loved ones and find joy in simple things. It is equally important to nourish and develop our talents, as they drive individual fulfilment but also they can positively impact the wider society.

Maybe this should be our goals for next year? To concentrate on building meaningful relationships, which can help us to grow and boost our confidence and motivation? Maybe it is time to truly unlock our potential so that we can “fuel” innovation? Or maybe, shall we all try to be more in the present moment, which will bring us peace and harmony? Maybe, life is not only about completing tasks and adding up achievements?

Whatever we decide to do, I hope that the New Year will bring us hope and belief that the greatest gift we can give to each other is time and ourselves. Let’s make every moment count and let’s make it memorable!

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2026: Time to end ragebait politics

As we enter 2026, the UK is in desperate need of a political reset. From manufactured outrage to simplistic blame games, this is the age of TikTok politics, where complex policy challenges are reduced to 40-second clips, and success is measured more in social posts shared than real lives improved.

But here’s the crucial reality check: most people are absolutely sick of it. Young people especially tell me all the time how the whole tribal and adversarial politics is a complete turn-off. “Why can’t you politicians all just work together?” one asked me plaintively the other day.

And I completely share their frustration.

Because the challenges facing our communities really are too serious for this kind of divisive, clickbait politics. Whether it’s the cost of living, the housing emergency, or community safety, people need real-world solutions, not social media soundbites. The increasing polarisation and politicisation of issues we’ve seen in recent years just doesn’t help anyone. Real progress requires working across the political spectrum and bringing communities together rather than hammering a wedge between them.

That’s where I think City Hall politics can offer a better example to follow. Not least, of course, in having some form of proportional representation as we do here in London to make each vote count and ensure a more diverse political spectrum so everyone feels they have a voice at the table.

But it’s not just our fairer voting system that national politics could learn from, it’s the far more collaborative style of working together you find in the London Assembly. Even the chamber where we meet is set up for a better kind of politics – seated around a table together, rather than glaring at each other from across a dispatch box.

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Lib Dem Friends of Israel respond to Andrew George MP

Andrew George MP frames his recent article on Lib Dem Voice (“Israel/Palestine: Complicity”) around laudable principles—respect for law, opposition to hatred, and concern for civilian life. However, those principles are undermined when language departs from legal definitions, evidence is selectively presented, and allegations of the gravest crimes in international law are asserted as settled fact when they are not.

This matters not only for accuracy, but because such rhetoric risks feeding narratives that blur into antisemitism under the guise of moral critique.

The most serious flaw in the article is the repeated assertion that Israel is committing “genocide.” Genocide is not a descriptive adjective; it is a specific crime defined under the 1948 Genocide Convention, requiring proof of intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group as such. As of today, no international court has ruled that Israel is committing genocide.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ), often misrepresented in public debate, has not found Israel guilty of genocide. In its provisional measures rulings, the ICJ explicitly stated that it was not making a determination on the merits of the genocide claim. Provisional measures are procedural safeguards, not verdicts.

To describe Israel as having been “recognised” as committing genocide is therefore factually incorrect and legally false. Misusing the term genocide not only cheapens a grave legal concept but also contributes to the collective demonisation of the world’s only Jewish state—a pattern that, historically, has had direct consequences for Jewish communities far beyond the Middle East.

There is no question that Gaza has experienced an acute humanitarian crisis, including severe food insecurity. However, the claim that Israel is deliberately starving Gaza as a policy of war is not established fact. Independent monitoring mechanisms such as the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reported famine-level risks in parts of Gaza in early 2024. Yet subsequent assessments in 2025 concluded that famine conditions were not present across Gaza, largely due to increased aid flows following ceasefires and humanitarian corridors.

Severe hunger persists, but that is not the same as proof of an intentional starvation policy. Israel has facilitated hundreds of thousands of tonnes of humanitarian aid into Gaza via multiple crossings and coordination mechanisms, even while fighting an armed group that embeds itself within civilian infrastructure.

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Why Liberal Democrats need a principled position on Farm Inheritance Tax

Labour’s capitulation this week- raising the Agricultural Property Relief threshold from £1 million to £2.5 million after fourteen months of pressure – reveals the weakness of defending arbitrary numbers rather than principles.

This should matter to Liberal Democrats. We’ve opposed Labour’s reforms without offering an alternative. “Scrap the tax” isn’t liberal – it’s opposing for opposition’s sake. We’re ceding ground to Labour’s incoherent incrementalism and Conservative privilege defence.

The opportunity Labour has created

Labour doesn’t know what problem they’re solving. The threshold they inherited was unlimited. They proposed £1 million. Now it’s £2.5 million. They claim to protect “ordinary family farms” while targeting “the wealthy” – but can’t explain why the right number changed by 150%.

This creates space for Liberal Democrats to articulate principled reform. Not “tax more” or “tax less,” but “tax the right things for the right reasons.”

What we should be arguing

The real conflict isn’t “protect farmers versus raise revenue.” It’s tax dodgers versus working farmers.

Current Agricultural Property Relief gives 100% inheritance tax exemption to all agricultural land – whether farmed or held as a tax shelter. Wealthy investors buy farmland to save 40% on inheritance tax, inflating land prices and locking out genuine farmers.

A liberal approach distinguishes between productive farming and passive wealth. Tie relief to behaviour (actual farming), not asset class (land ownership). The mechanism: link inheritance tax relief to the percentage of income from farming. Work the land, pay nothing. Use it as a tax shelter, pay tax.

This protects working farmers better than Labour’s threshold – someone earning their living from agriculture pays nothing regardless of land value. And it removes the tax shelter incentive driving unaffordable land prices.

Why this matters for Liberal Democrats

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Labour running scared of local election challenge

Late last week, council leaders and directly elected mayors in 62 affected council areas received an unexpected letter from Local Government Minister Alison McGovern. The contents of that letter were nothing short of extraordinary: an offer to cancel the upcoming local elections in their areas — if they so choose.

This sudden and unprecedented proposal carries a very clear and troubling message. Labour and the Conservatives have suffered significant losses to Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats throughout this year. Both major parties are now deeply concerned about the prospect of further defeats in May. Let us not forget that in …

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Israel/Palestine:  Complicity 

Our campaigning for peace and reconciliation has always rested on respect for the rule of law, a determination to uncover the truth, and a refusal to tolerate ideologies that promote hatred, war and terrorism. The fragile ceasefire in Gaza must not distract us from prosecuting war crimes thoroughly or from accelerating progress toward a two-state solution.

I usually avoid conflating the Israel–Palestine conflict with broader issues around Islamophobia and antisemitism, but recent events compel me to speak plainly. In the wake of the appalling atrocity in Sydney, it is right to express solidarity with the victims and their families. Those who stand for peace must also stand with the Jewish community, oppose antisemitism, and confront the hate-filled ideologies that fuel terrorism.

Visiting Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories earlier this year made clear both the urgent need for peace and the fact that not everyone is working toward it. Eight weeks into the fragile Gaza ceasefire, international attention is already drawing a veil over war crimes as it focuses on peace, governance, and reconstruction. For the Netanyahu government and some western allies, talk of the future can become a rhetorical device to deflect scrutiny of past and ongoing atrocities and to avoid calls for justice.

In Parliament, ministers have used the ceasefire to present the UK as a key peacebuilder. Yet, as highlighted in Peter Oborne’s recent book, serious concerns remain about the extent of UK involvement in Israel’s policy of retribution, genocide and starvation of its people and consequent destruction of Gaza, including (but not only) through the supply of arms, intelligence, and other forms of military aid. 

In September 2024 the government partially suspended arms sales to Israel, revoking roughly 30 of 350 relevant licences. That limited action left significant loopholes, notably an exemption for exports to the global F-35 programme, despite evidence the jets have bombed civilians in Gaza.

Beyond the F-35 carve-out, UK military goods continued to flow to Israel in worrying quantities. Analysis by Channel 4 FactCheck shows that in June 2025 UK munitions worth about £400,000 entered Israel— the highest monthly figure since records began three years ago. Ministers note the data does not distinguish live munitions from training equipment, but why would we supply any military material to an army accused of genocide? Regardless, the UK and Israeli governments refuse to disclose the nature of the shipments, making proper scrutiny impossible. 

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BBC : How to blame the Conservatives for Trump’s $10bn damages claim 

We should publicly blame the Conservative Party for its role in ousting Tim Davie as the BBC’s Director-General, and for President Donald Trump’s $10bn lawsuit. The Party has insufficient grounds for `looking the other way’.

Our Party Leader Ed Davey’s `Guardian’ article of 10 November was superb. 

His demand that Sir Robbie Gibb resign from the BBC Board was well focused. Even after Gibb had been exposed to many people who didn’t realise his power within the BBC, shining the spotlight on him was right.

I have been monitoring Gibb for the last couple of years, after my attention had been drawn to the harm he was causing as a `grey eminence’ inside the BBC who had accumulated huge power.

Our Party Leader was able, in his article, to strike a powerful blow for BBC independence (which many voters believe in as passionately as we do).  

Lib Dem Shadow Culture Secretary Anna Sabine MP echoed this perfectly, as reported in the Guardian by Media Editor Michael Savage published on or around the next day.

Now we can teach the Conservative Party a bigger lesson while striking another powerful blow ourselves for the independence of BBC journalists.

The thin fence that they have ducked behind consists of the fact that, technically, the Director-General is appointed by the Executive, consisting of BBC Board Members.

How then can the Conservative Party still be collectively blamed for the debacle which led to Tim Davie’s resignation as Director-General on 9 November whose resignation, alongside Deborah Furness’s, was seen as `cauterising the wound’?

The three figures most clearly involved in the conflagration which led to this were all Conservatives. The Party had so engineered the set-up within the BBC that it was decided that only a Conservative should be Director-General.

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A call for radical honesty in our political messaging 

We often say we care about lived experience, and that is true. We talk clearly about housing, childcare and benefits. In some areas, we have led the way with strong examples and practical policies. Liberal Democrat councils are building new council homes. We pushed to end the two-child benefit cap. In government, we raised the personal tax allowance, the last significant rise before it was frozen.

But when it comes to the economy, our message still stops short of what many people want to hear. And this hurts us when campaigning, especially against the Greens and Reform who are prepared to shout out that the system is broken. 

The problem is not that voters lack detail. It is that mainstream politics often lacks honesty, and sometimes it lacks listening.

Politicians talk about growth, markets, interest rates and public finances. These things matter. But, too often, we talk about them as if they exist in a separate world from everyday life. For many people, especially those on low and modest incomes, the economy is not a forecast or a chart. It is whether they have enough money to make choices. That’s why I have previously called for the OBR to publish an analysis of the impact of the Budget on poor people.

We need radical honesty. And that starts by putting on the big ears. 

That means listening properly to what people are telling us, even when it makes us uncomfortable. Especially when it makes us uncomfortable.

On the doorstep, many people now lean towards Reform. Too often, the political response is to assume bad motives. To hear racism where there may instead be frustration, insecurity or anger at a system that feels stacked against them. That instinct is not just unfair. It is politically lazy.

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Mark Pack’s final report to members

Happy Christmas and a Happy New Year

Once again, we end a year with more Liberal Democrat councillors than at the start, with more Lib Dem council leaders than at the start and with a greater spread of Lib Dem candidates across the country outside target wards. Both in the areas where we can most immediately win, and across the country more broadly in terms of candidates, canvassing and delivery, we’ve taken big steps forward.

We have now made net gains in the May rounds of local elections seven times in a row, the best winning streak in our party’s history, and we’re in sight of even beating the benchmark set during the heyday of the SDP/Liberal Alliance.

Our continued progress in local council by-elections since May means we are the only party other than Reform posting significant gains (and it’s worth noting that the Greens are pretty much only treading water, even after Zack Polanski’s election).

Many people across the country, volunteers and staff, deserve the thanks and praise for those achievements. Last time I talked about the progress in County Durham and what the whole party can learn from it. This time, it is worth calling out the success in Devon where our recent by-election gain in Seaton makes it 13 (!) by-elections won this year in the county – as well as making gains and becoming the largest party in the May county council elections. Most impressive.

And that’s a wrap

Barring any last-minute crisis, the thirty-seventh Federal Board meeting I chaired a couple of weeks back was the last in my time as Federal Party President, with Josh Babarinde taking over from 1st January.

So a huge thanks to all the staff and colleagues on the Board who worked so hard to make a success of our meetings, and the Board’s work between meetings too. A particular thanks to my Vice Chairs during this time – initially Elaine Bagshaw and Jeremy Hargreaves, and then Jeremy along with Jenni Lang and Amna Ahmed.

The very best wishes too to the new Board and to Josh.

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Erasmus+ Programme

Studying abroad, ability to learn another language, facing quite a few challenges, trying to fit into a new cultural environment, enhancing my identity and appreciating my own heritage, the list is long and it is hard to put it into words, I know that I have benefited hugely from being able to study in Croatia and Italy.

Although I am often very critical of the Labour Government, I am actually pleased that they are looking into re-establishing the Erasmus+ scheme. I strongly disagree with quite a few opposition politicians e.g. Priti Patel, who calls it a “Brexit betrayal”.

Let just remind ourselves that before the EU Referendum, in 2018-19, the last year the scheme operated here, 18,300 British students studied in the EU, while 30,000 EU students came to the UK.

Interestingly, in 2024, over 65,000 people travelled to Poland for the Erasmus+ program. This figure primarily represents incoming students, but the Erasmus+ program in Poland in 2024 also included other types of beneficiaries such as learners, professors, teachers, trainers, youth workers, and young people. Approximately 15,000 Polish students leave the country every year for their studies abroad through the program. In March 2025, when the former Mayor of Welwyn Hatfield Frank Marsh and I visited Sycow, we were impressed not only with students’ ability to speak English, but also with school(s) willingness to cooperate with other educational institutions across Europe.

Is there a cost attached to this programme, if it goes ahead? Yes. The UK will pay £570 million for the 2027/28 academic year to re-join the scheme, a figure the government states is a 30% discount on the default price for non-EU states. Is it worth it, I wonder given all the other financial pressures? Many would argue, rightly, that the UK and Europe have much bigger problems than “trivial and irrelevant” learning programme.

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Liberal Democrats must act now to prevent deaths on hunger strike

There are moments when Parliament must intervene not because it is politically convenient, but because failure to act would be morally indefensible. This is one of those moments.

Lawyers representing several Palestine Action linked prisoners have now warned that their clients may die without urgent ministerial intervention. Some have been on hunger strike for more than 40 days. Medical collapse, loss of consciousness, and dangerous blood test results have already been reported. These are not speculative concerns. They are immediate, time sensitive risks.

The Liberal Democrats exist to hold government to account when power is exercised without humanity or scrutiny. That responsibility now falls squarely on our Parliamentary team. The government has attempted to blur this issue by framing it as a continuation of the proscription debate. It is NOT!

Whatever view one takes of Palestine Action and whatever view one takes of the government’s decision to bundle organisations into a single proscription order, none of that justifies allowing people to deteriorate to the point of death in state custody.

These individuals are on remand. They have not been convicted. The government has a non-negotiable duty of care.  Refusing to meet legal representatives while credible warnings of impending death are being made is not a neutral administrative choice. It is a failure of ministerial responsibility.

This is precisely the type of situation where the Liberal Democrat Parliamentary team must act decisively and visibly.

These actions should include:

  1. Urgent parliamentary questions to the Justice Secretary on the health of the hunger strikers;
  2. A formal request for an immediate ministerial meeting with lawyers and MPs representing the prisoners;
  3. Written questions on medical oversight, remand decisions, and alleged interference with legal correspondence;
  4. Cross-party engagement, led by Liberal Democrats, to prevent any death.

The Liberal Democrats should not wait for tragedy before acting.

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From the River to the Sea . . .

This phrase, or variants of it, has a long history and invokes different meaning to different people. We all need to realise what we may mean by it is not what those who hear it understand by it.

The roots of this phrase or slogan seem to be in the time of the British Mandate rule in Palestine, and it comes from the Revisionist (i.e. right wing) Zionism movement led by Ze’ev Jabotinsky, the movement that also produced the Jewish Terrorist groups, Irgun and Lehi, and the ideology of what is now Likud led by Binyamin Netanyahu.  It was the dream of this branch of Zionism to have a Jewish State that reached from the Mediterranean to the Jordan, even beyond.

Later (the exact chronology is disputed) by the 1970’s, the phrase was adopted by the Palestinian Nationalist movement to call for a Palestinian State excluding Isreal and, by implication, most (if not all) Jews from that land.

In modern times the phrase is linked to the pro-Palestinian movement in the West with the second line of “Palestine will be free.”  While many who chant the slogan may not mean that this implies the eradication of Israel, many in Jews, both in Israel and those in the Diaspora, hear that implication in those words and fear that it will be accompanied by a mass eradication of Jews between the Mediterranean to the Jordan, just as when the original slogan was first coined, the Arabs who lived in Palestine feared a Jewish state would mean their expulsion or eradication.

Given this mixed history, it is no wonder that the phrase stirs different emotions in people depending on which side of the Palestine/Israel conflict they are. However, if we want to help both Palestinians & Israelis address the issues that divide them, help the find a way to allow both to live in peace, share that land they both love and call their homeland and allow the children of both grow up free from the threat of more wars & violence, we need to think before we repeat  this phrase either by itself or with a second line.

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Liberty does not end where caring begins

The Liberal Democrats exist to build and safeguard a fair, free and open society, in which we seek to balance the fundamental values of liberty, equality and community, and in which no one shall be enslaved by poverty, ignorance or conformity.

I’m sure everyone knows this preamble by now, emblazoned on the back of our membership cards. I want to focus on the concept of liberty and how it doesn’t apply to carers.

Liberty and carers

My perspective on liberty encompasses the relationship between individuals and the state.

Society cannot function

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Mathew on Monday: a year that revealed the limits of old politics

As this political year draws to a close, it has revealed something fundamental about the state of our country: Britain is crying out for change, but all too often is being offered more of the same.

After years of Conservative failure, voters rightly demanded competence and decency.
Yet while the Conservatives have continued to implode-trapped between ideological exhaustion and an inability to reckon honestly with the damage they have done-the change on offer from Labour has too often felt cautious, managerial and constrained by self-imposed limits.

Stability matters, of course. But stability without ambition risks becoming stagnation.
This has been most obvious in the economy.
Inflation has eased, but living standards remain under severe pressure, particularly for younger people locked out of secure housing and good work.

Labour’s insistence on tight fiscal rules may reassure markets, but it has yet to reassure families wondering when life will actually get easier. The Conservatives, meanwhile, continue to talk as if they were not in charge for fourteen years – a political amnesia that convinces no one.

Nowhere is the failure of old politics clearer than in our public services. The NHS has endured yet another year of crisis, with strikes reflecting not militancy but desperation. Conservative neglect created this mess; Labour’s reluctance to be bold risks managing rather than fixing it.

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From Hong Kong’s Tai Po fire to Jimmy Lai’s political persecution end impunity for crimes against journalists

For the past two years, my father (Jimmy Lai) has been on trial under Hong Kong’s arbitrary and draconian national security law…. His skin is drying up, his nails are changing colour before falling off, and his teeth are decaying. His eyes are often dry and bloodshot.

– Claire Lai, The Washington Post, 9th December 2025

Lai was the owner of Apple Daily, the largest pro-democracy newspaper in Hong Kong. Mere words of concern from the UK government are not enough when it comes to his political imprisonment in Hong Kong. The UK Government needs to take action to end impunity in …

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Equality, degrowth and survival

I am becoming increasingly concerned by the party’s continued stress on economic growth. This is in total contradiction to what is necessary on the environment. Of course, when pressed, this aim is hedged about as ‘green growth’, but increasingly this is detached from the direction needed to save the planet.

As a Quaker, one of my aims is to speak truth to power. When the very survival of our planet is threatened by widespread flouting and outright denial of the steps necessary to achieve a green economy, it is surely time that we, as radical politicians, start to tell the truth about the future direction of our country and our planet.

We can no longer promise never ending increases in living standards. So, all the pretence that somehow, we can improve life for those on lower incomes through growth must be discarded. The only way the poor can become less poor is through greater equality and this necessitates the rich having less. It is already obscene that a small number of people, both in the UK and worldwide, have income and wealth beyond the dreams of avarice and are able to use the power that it brings to pursue their goals at the expense of everyone else.

As a party, we pass policies which talk about equality, but our leaders continue to talk about growth, rather than facing up to the need to radically shift the split of income and wealth. It may not be a popular message and it will be roundly attacked in the media owned by the super-rich, but it’s the truth.

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What is the “right” level of immigration to the UK?

There are few current issues more emotive than that of immigration, so I wanted to take a dispassionate view of the future demographic and economic implications of where we are now, and what might happen in the future, particularly if Nigel Farage achieved his aim of ‘net zero’ one-in, one-out migration as he stated in June this year.

I took as a starting point the population projections published by the Office of National Statistics.

The central assumption is that the UK’s population will grow from around 69 million today to 77 million in 2047. One key point to note in this projection is the forecast that deaths will exceed births every year from the end of this decade, and so growth is primarily driven by net inward migration at an average of 340,000 per year, with the people coming to the UK at a rate approximately double that of those leaving.

Using this data we can consider alternative scenarios. In the unlikely event that we went for absolute zero immigration while still allowing British citizens to leave and taking into account below-replacement birth rates, the population would fall dramatically to around 61 million in 2047 with a collapse in the number of those of working age.

However if we look at the ‘net zero’ position advocated by Farage, then the population would fall slightly from its current 69 million to 67.5 million by 2047. At first glance this might appear an insignificant change, but in reality the effects are dramatic.

The reason for the significance is demographics. Other data from the ONS shows that 94% of immigrants coming to the UK are of working age, as are 93% of those emigrating from the UK. However, the UK’s existing population is ageing, and we currently have a ratio of working age people to non-working age (children and pensioners) of about 1.8.

In Farage’s ‘net zero’ scenario, we end up with a falling ratio of working to non-working age to around 1.5, and a working age population in 2047 roughly 2.5 million lower than it is today, most of whom will have become pensioners. This has huge implications for both taxation and spending, because getting old is expensive.

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Let us meet this challenge with unyielding resolve

As of writing this, the date is 11/12/2025.

The illegal expansionist Russian invasion of Ukraine has now reached its 11th year, with the firing shot taking place all the way back in 2014, with the unlawful annexation of Crimea and the Donbas Region, followed by several years of empty threats from Russia, whilst occupied Ukrainians suffered under Russian rule. 

Ukraine’s forces, while still strong in spirit, are beginning to be pushed back by invading Russian troops, due to several factors.

North Korean troops have been deployed, in aid of Russia, to assist in the illegal expansionist invasion. The Kremlin has previously brought in Russian mercenaries and Syrian fighters to bulk up its numbers against defending Ukrainian forces, along with troops pulled from Russian-occupied lands, including South Ossetia, Transnistria, and Abkhazia. It is currently recruiting fighters from Iran.

America’s support for Ukraine has recently faltered, with President Trump supporting a peace plan that was all but engineered by the Kremlin, including capping the size of the Ukrainian military and preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, with the recognition of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk by Ukraine as ‘de facto Russian’; following the unveiling of this ‘peace plan’, Ukraine, understandably, rejected it, seeking a new plan that would not involve ceding territory to an invading country.

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A ‘whole society’ response to threats to national security

How seriously should we now take threats to Britain’s national security?   Liberals by temperament have never been hawkish on defence, though concerned increasingly with threats to society and economy like pandemic diseases and climate change.   We’ve been happy with the progressive transfer of funds for defence into health and welfare since the end of the Cold War 35 years ago, including the selling-off of former barracks and training centres for what used to be the Territorial Army – though we’ve been very unhappy about recent cuts in development spending to find money for defence.  But the international situation has now changed for the worse.  Russian ships are prospecting for cables around our coasts, drones hover over neighbouring countries, there are cyber-attacks and occasional sabotage on British soil, and President Trump trusts Russia more than the UK and our European neighbours.

In July the government published a major Strategic Defence Review (SDR).  The Prime Minister’s introduction declared that ‘when Russia is waging war on our continent and probing our defences at home, we must meet the danger head on.’  He did not add that we may well have to meet the danger – and the new forms of hybrid warfare that includes – without the full support of the USA.  The SDR and associated documents – the ‘National Security Strategy’, covering also climate and health threats, and the ‘UK Government Resilience Action Plan’ – set out some radical ideas about what is needed to respond.  The government has promised an increase of 1% of GDP on defence and security within the next 4-5 years, to double to 5% of GDP by 2035 – not a sign of immediate urgency.  More immediately the SDR calls for a ‘national conversation’ to engage the public in the ‘whole society’ response that is required.

Since then there has been silence. No national conversation has been launched by our timid and distracted government.  The budget has put off spending more on security and defence; the Ministry of Defence has reportedly been told to hold back on several spending programmes.  General Sir Richard Barrons, one of the three lead-authors of the SDR (along with George Robertson and Fiona Hill) has just told a think-tank conference that the budget means that ‘for two years defence goes backwards’.  Conservatives and Reform are so preoccupied with cutting taxes that they have made no criticisms of this, nor said anything about security and defence as priorities.  So what should we be saying, against the weight of right-wing focus on lower taxes and the overall timidity of the Labour government?

The most radical concept, for me, in the SDR is the call for a ‘whole society’ approach to national security.  After several decades in which government has engaged its citizens less and less in public life or forms of public service, this conjures up the idea of active citizenship, in local communities as well as contributing to national efforts, volunteering to respond to national emergencies and domestic and external threats.  It emphasises local responses, expanding civilian rescue teams, emergency responders, police and military reserves, and a new Home Defence Force, ‘to improve national resilience.’  This would be a reversal of what we have seen in recent decades, with Labour governments seeing themselves as delivering services to a largely passive population, Conservatives denigrating public service, squeezing local government and selling off Territorial Army depots and drill halls.  

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The digital battlefield: Why the Liberal Democrats must supercharge online communications

​In the rapidly evolving landscape of modern politics, the campaign trail is no longer just paved with leaflets and street stalls—it’s dominated by algorithms, viral content, and instant digital connection. For the Liberal Democrats, a party with deep roots in local activism and a compelling national vision, improving online communications is not merely an optional extra; it is a critical necessity for survival and growth.

​The challenges we face in a multipolar political environment are compounded by structural disadvantages—particularly the overwhelming dominance of established parties in funding and the disproportionate attention given to populist rivals. This imbalance makes the digital sphere our most crucial, most direct avenue to voters.

​The triple threat: Media bias, big money, and digital disruptors

​The Liberal Democrats operate under structural disadvantages that online communications must actively seek to overcome.

​1. The Mainstream Media Squeeze and Reform UK’s Over-representation

​For a third party, achieving fair representation in national print and broadcast media is a perennial struggle. The news cycle overwhelmingly prioritises the two largest parties. Crucially, studies have shown that despite the Liberal Democrats having a significantly larger number of elected MPs (e.g., 72 vs. Reform UK’s 5 MPs in a recent comparison), Reform UK receives considerably more airtime on key news bulletins.

The Skewed Narrative: This imbalance means Reform UK is often framed as the protagonist—setting the agenda and driving conflict—while the Lib Dems are often relegated to a passive role, merely responding to the policies and claims of others.

Online is Our Direct Channel: We must utilise social media to bypass these gatekeepers entirely. We can deliver our core messages on the cost of living, the NHS, and environmental policy directly to the public without mediation or spin.

Good Practice Example: AOC’s Instagram Q&As. US Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez uses live Q&A sessions to break down complex policy issues, building authenticity and trust. Lib Dem MPs and spokespeople should regularly host similar sessions, turning the active scrutiny the media denies us into a direct, empowering conversation with voters.

​2. The influence of large donations and campaign spending

​The traditional power of large political donations further skews the playing field. While all major parties benefit from big donors, the scale of funding available to the largest parties and those supported by ‘mega-donors’ creates a significant resource disparity in overall campaign spending.

Party resource disparity impact on campaigning solution 

Donations to established rivals Funds massive staff numbers, high-cost polling, and huge digital advertising budgets.

Focus on organic reach, ingenuity, and local authenticity to achieve cut-through at a lower cost.

High national spending limits 

Allows dominant parties to spend up to the high legal limits on national advertising.

We cannot compete with multi-million-pound war chests on advertising spend alone. Our digital strategy must be built on ingenuity, authenticity, and grassroots mobilisation, turning every local activist’s social media account into a campaigning asset.

​3. Learning from the digital disruption of populist rivals

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Moving on

These days we Liberal Democrats often divide ourselves, broadly and crudely, into “economic liberals” and “social liberals”. Economic liberals tend to start from the market, prioritising entrepreneurship, low taxes and preventing state interference. Social liberals tend to start from human rights and social justice, usually assuming a greater level of taxation and regulation, and thus of state activity, than economic liberals. But there is a substantial overlap in belief, and the crude characterisation of the last two sentences by no means describes all liberals.

The labels are as traditional as the idea, and I suspect have ceased to be useful as the world has changed so significantly since the days when they were forged. In fact in some ways I suggest that they are actively unhelpful. I have not met a social liberal who does not want a functioning market. Many economic liberals value social justice highly, although I have met too many who have difficulty accepting that individual freedom is a higher goal than maximum market efficiency.

Liberalism begins with the freedom of the individual. When liberalism first cohered, the most substantial threat to personal freedom came from the powers that be – the church or the state, the state being in the form of a monarch, an oligarchy, or even an alleged democracy like nineteenth century Britain.

It made sense at the dawn of liberalism, and it still makes some sense now, to link personal freedoms with freedom to transact. In other words, free markets made free people. For much of the history of liberalism that worked. It was possible for selfish actors to manipulate markets, and for the world to remain seriously unequal, but the downside of markets was more than made up for by the diminution of the dominance of the state and the sway it held over people’s lives. The key force to be aware of, and to guard against, was the force of political power, backed up ultimately by the state’s monopoly of the use of violence on a basis that was claimed to be legitimate. (For the purpose of this argument I am ignoring ecclesiastical power despite its persistence. Churches still retain much power e.g. the maintenance of the Lords Spiritual in this country, the spread of megachurches with cult-like characteristics in the USA and many southern countries, the rise of “Christian” nationalism. But, while they can wield great power over individuals and communities, their power globally is much more limited than it used to be.)

Two arguments were deployed if markets worked to the detriment of individuals. The first was that while some suffered, society at large benefited because markets mostly saw to it that populations prospered. (A rising tide lifts all boats.) The second was that the excesses of markets could be tamed through formal (legislation) and informal (consumer power) means.

The world now is different. It has become steadily more different since the rise of globalisation in the eighties, and in particular the impetus given to that movement by the neoliberal policies of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. Now markets are globally dominant, and a few individuals and companies dominate the market. Indeed, such is the imbalance of power that any relationship between labour and profit has been broken. (The rising tide no longer lifts all boats.) Current wealth has such a force of gravity that it attracts more wealth to itself, and is largely in the hands of people who want to leave as little as possible to the rest of us. Markets affect the lives of everyone around the whole planet in ways that state power finds hard to match, even when projected by Donald Trump.

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The Peggie case and the problem of shadow funding

An employment tribunal recently dismissed almost all claims in the closely-watched Peggie v Fife Health Board case. Sandie Peggie, a nurse with gender-critical beliefs, sued her employer over its policy allowing a trans woman doctor to use the female changing room. The tribunal found no direct discrimination, no indirect discrimination, and no victimisation. Only one narrow procedural claim succeeded.

For many, this reads as vindication of trans-inclusive policies. But there’s a bigger story liberals need to understand. This case is part of a coordinated litigation campaign operating largely in the shadows, bankrolled by wealthy individuals and organisations whose funding remains deliberately opaque.

Who paid for Sandie Peggie’s legal representation? We don’t know. What other similar cases are they funding? Whether this is an isolated grievance or a test case in a broader strategy? We don’t know. That’s precisely the problem.

Over the past two years, employment tribunals have seen a forty-fold increase in gender-critical belief discrimination cases. Multiple NHS trusts faced legal action within just three months, the Girl Guides received a pre-action letter threatening litigation over their trans-inclusive policies, and the pattern continues to accelerate. The strategy works even without courtroom victories – both the Girl Guides and the Women’s Institute recently withdrew trans-inclusive policies in the face of legal threats, capitulating before cases even reached tribunal.

Beyond the direct policy changes, the litigation serves another purpose: media attention. Each case – win, lose, or settle – generates headlines positioning trans-inclusive policies as legally risky and politically contested. The public controversy itself becomes the victory, shaping discourse and institutional behaviour far beyond any single courtroom.

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The cruelty is the point: ruscism and Russia’s war on civilians

I read a lot of posts and articles from people who try to dissect the reasoning behind Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Some conclude that it is simply a geopolitical squabble between two post-Soviet states. Others suppose that NATO and/or the EU must have “provoked” Russia into invading a completely separate nation that is not formally a member of either international organisation, despite both organisations allowing nations to join or leave as they please; see Brexit for the EU and the most recent threats of US departure from NATO.

However, I propose a much simpler, albeit darker, reason for Russia’s invasion. And that reason is ruscism, a term that encapsulates the ideology of Russian imperialism rooted in a history of expansionism, chauvinism, and a belief in Russian superiority, which fuels aggressive actions like the invasion of Ukraine.

Ruscism, or ‘Russian fascism’, was first identified during the First Chechen War when Dzhokhar Dudayev described it as: ‘a variety of hatred ideology which is based on Great Russian Chauvinism, spiritlessness and immorality.’

That phrase, “extreme cruelty”, comes up a lot whenever Russia is involved. 

In the First Chechen War alone, there was the indiscriminate bombing of Shali, a Chechen town, with the use of cluster bombs focused on targeting markets, gas stations, hospitals, a Muslim cemetery, schools and collective farms. There was also the Samashki Massacre, during which “Zachistka” took place. “Zachistka” is a Russian euphemism for “mopping up” in relation to killing civilians inside occupied enemy territories.

The UNCHR reported that over 100 people, mainly civilians, were murdered by Russian troops in Samashki, noting that soldiers “deliberately and arbitrarily attacked civilians and civilian dwellings”, by way of shooting, using flame throwers and throwing grenades into basements where mostly women, elderly people and children were hiding.

In the Second Chechen War, while both sides committed war crimes, Human Rights Watch noted that the majority of deaths of civilians were caused by Russian forces, ranging from the refusal to create safe evacuation corridors to ignoring the Geneva Convention, to looting from civilians’ homes before murdering said civilians. Anna Politkovskaya, a journalist who the Kremlin murdered for shining a light on Russian war crimes in Chechnya, documented in her book “A Dirty War” the atrocities she both came across and was told about by survivors, including finding a school essay by a Chechen child which reads:

I do not know if Putin has a heart. But if he did, he would not have started such a war. Putin thinks human life is worth fifty kopecks. He is deeply mistaken. I’d like Putin to know that we are also human beings.

Fast forward to today, to the current Russian invasion of Ukraine. And what do we see? The use of prohibited chemical weapons by the Russian army has occurred approximately 465 times. Nearly 20,000 Ukrainian children have been abducted from Russian-occupied territories. More than one million people have been deported from Ukraine to Russia by Russian forces. The UN has reported numerous cases of civilians being “arbitrarily detained and subjected to enforced disappearances“. Amnesty International has stated that Russian troops had “shown a blatant disregard for civilian lives by using ballistic missiles and other explosive weapons with wide-area effect in densely-populated areas”. These don’t even begin to cover the scope of atrocities committed by Russian troops in Ukraine, ranging from mass graves to sexual violence and the forced conscription of Ukrainians in Russian-occupied areas.

Also posted in Europe / International | Tagged and | 13 Comments

Liberal Action

​Just like so many people, I went through much of my life following the politics I grew up with. Growing up in Wales, this was nationally Labour.

​After years of following the Labour ideology without questioning it and spending many years involved with student politics, it was the Brexit vote that made me think. The morning the Brexit result was announced, my young daughter turned to me and said, “That’s rubbish, what are you going to do about it?” This was my turning point.

​I soon found out that my political home was not Labour, and the personal views I had struggled with for years are actually those of a Liberal: liberty, equality, democracy, community, human rights, internationalism, and environmentalism.

​The evening after the Brexit vote, I joined the Liberal Democrats and closed a 20-year chapter of active involvement in Labour. Not wanting to let my daughter down, I became actively involved in the early years of the anti-Brexit campaign and continue to do so until this day. My paternal grandparents would be horrified, as they had done the opposite decades previously, taking a lead with the anti-Common Market campaign.

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Learnings from a term on Federal Council, and advice for the next

I don’t think Federal Council ever fully found its feet. And I think one of the fundamental reasons for this is that we never really understood what it was for. Was it intended only as an emergency brake for bad decisions made by a reduced size Board, or was it intended more of a broader Overview and Scrutiny function, equivalent to local government? My interpretation of the constitution was that it was the latter, but much of the discussion in Council focussed more on the former – which decisions should we call-in?

This fundamental tension is one the party must resolve if it wants a functioning Council. A productive relationship between the Board and Council isn’t one where the Council threatens use of a big red stop button constantly. Instead, the Council must trust the Board to do the right thing, with that trust being earned with Council being confident that the Board is doing the work to implement the party strategy, as agreed by conference, through proactive scrutiny. The use of a veto power should be an extreme one. Expense limits for the Presidential election was one of the few examples of the Council being effective at influencing the board, and we did not need to use the veto to implement this.

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Mathew on Monday: the UK and Europe must show moral leadership in today’s London talks on Ukraine

As leaders gather in London today for urgent talks on Ukraine, one truth should sit at the heart of every discussion: this is not simply a diplomatic meeting, it is a moral test – for the UK, for Europe, and for every democratic nation that claims to stand for freedom.

Nearly three years into Russia’s brutal and illegal invasion, Ukraine continues to pay the highest price imaginable. Cities still scarred by missile strikes, families scattered across continents, children growing up under the shadow of war -these are not abstract foreign-policy concerns, they are the lived reality of a people fighting, …

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Starmer must address the Nation

In case the message hasn’t quite got through to our European Leaders, you can’t voice it more starkly than in the new U.S. National Security Strategy.

The new strategy shows the U.S. administration’s contempt towards the European Union (unsurprisingly, given it is a powerful economic competitor). It believes the EU is endangering European civilisation (e.g. “migration policies”, “loss of national identities”, “censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition”), and declares that the U.S. will therefore “cultivate resistance” to save us, which will de facto lead to increasingly interfering in our internal politics to encourage right-wing governments getting elected.

As I have said before, Europe’s leaders have been too obsequious in their pandering to the current U.S. administration. The reason is obvious. We are beholden to the U.S. for many aspects of our security. Yet now we must think how we can manage the Ukraine war and European security on our own. We must bolster urgently our European defences, sufficiently to deter the expansion of Russia hybrid warfare against Europe and its evolution into kinetic warfare, threatening the lives of our own citizens.

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The Additional Member System and its overhang problem

The Additional Member System (AMS), otherwise known as Mixed Member Proportional (MMP), is one of the leading contenders as a Proportional Representation system for UK General Elections. However, as this piece describes, it can turn alarmingly disproportional when the number of parties in contention increases to the levels we are seeing today: five parties in England, and six in Scotland, are now polling at over 10%.

AMS/MMP has been used for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, and for the London Assembly, since devolution came in in 1999 – though the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) has decided to use a closed List system from next year’s election onwards.

Recent polls for next year’s Scottish Parliament election were widely reported as suggesting that the SNP are predicted to win 62 of the 129 seats (48%).

What has been less reported is that this is despite their predicted proportional entitlement being only 43 seats (33.3%). How can this happen in a supposedly proportional system?

The answer lies in what are known as ‘overhangs’, where a party wins more of the constituency seats, elected using FPTP, than their proportion of the list vote justifies.

For example, in a Scottish electoral region with 9 constituencies and 7 list seats, if a party gets 33% of the list vote, its proportional entitlement will usually work out at 6 seats (out of 16). So if it wins 8 of the 9 constituencies, which is quite likely if there are many other parties splitting the votes, it has 2 more seats than its proportional share. The ‘top-up’ component of the system will give it no list seats, but it already has too many for proportionality. What is or can be done about this?

In Scotland, as in the London Assembly and formerly in Wales, a party is allowed to keep its overhang seats, and other parties’ shares are reduced. According to analysis by Ballotbox Scotland current polling data suggest that in next May’s Scottish Parliament election the SNP would have 19 overhang seats; these would come at the expense of Labour (19 instead of 25), Reform (17 instead of 23), Conservatives (11 instead of 14), Liberal Democrats (10 instead of 13) and the Greens (10 instead of 11). Note that one implication is that pro-independence parties (SNP/Greens) would have a majority in the parliament of 72 seats (56%), against their proportional entitlement of 54 (42%).

Germany, which was the first country to adopt an AMS/MMP system, has had a similar problem of overhangs in recent years. But it has dealt with it differently, prioritising proportionality above constituency entitlements. In both 2017 and 2021 it allowed parties to keep overhang seats, but added extra list seats to maintain strict proportionality at national level. This required adding 111 and 133 seats respectively to the German parliament in those two elections.

Following those results, Germany has now adopted a different way of dealing with overhangs, so as to keep the Parliament at a fixed size (630): if a party wins too many constituency seats in a region, some are disallowed, using the percentage achieved in their constituency vote as criterion. In this year’s election 23 constituency winners were disallowed, with those constituencies left without an FPTP elected representative. The alternative under the previous arrangement would have again required adding well over 100 seats to the parliament.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Venezuela

Venezuela is not—repeat, NOT—a major drug producing country. That is according to the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).

It is not even a major transit country. That honour is reserved for Mexico and Central America which provide the major transport routes from production centres in Colombia, Bolivia and Peru.

Some cocaine is transited to the US through Venezuela but most of the drugs that passing through the South American country are bound for Europe, according to the DEA and UNDOC.

Then why, you may ask, has President Trump and his sidekick Pete Hegseth, blown up boats (allegedly carrying drugs)  coming mainly from Venezuela. So far 87 people have died in these legally suspect attacks. Why also, is a major US naval force led by the world’s largest aircraft carrier (the USS Gerald Ford) parked off the coast of Venezuela with the obvious intent of threatening regime change?

The answer is OIL.

Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves—330 billion barrels compared to 260 billion in Saudi Arabia, the world’s second largest.

But the oil is staying in the ground. It wasn’t always that way. In its production heyday, Venezuela was extracting 3.5 million barrels of oil a day. Current production is up significantly from a year ago but is still only 921,000 barrels a day.

This is because the state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) is corrupt and inefficient. It has not maintained either the oil wells, the pipelines that carry the oil from the Orinoco Basin to coastal shipment centres or the storage depots or ships.

One of the reasons for the inefficiency is that roughly a quarter of Venezuela’s population has fled the oppressive regime of Nicolas Maduro. A large proportion of those refugees are the skilled workers needed to toil in the oil industry.

If Maduro is removed from power—as Donald Trump would dearly love to see—then the Opposition has said that it would privatise the Venezuelan oil industry and invite foreign companies to take over production. In fact, Opposition leader—and Nobel Peace Prize winner—Marina Corina Machado—met with oil companies last April to discuss how they could revive her country’s oil fortunes.

Most of those companies would be American and the exploitation of Venezuela’s heavy crude by American oil companies would be a good fit with Donald Trump’s foreign policy aims.

Honduras

Trump’s policies are nothing if not inconsistent. On the one hand he says he is at war with drug traffickers and his declaration of war justifies blowing up boats without legal due process.

On the other hand, he pardons the former President of Honduras—Juan Orlando Hernandez—who was sentenced to 45 years in prison for drug trafficking.

Hernandez served two terms as president from 2013 to 2021. While in office he was popular with both Barack Obama and Trump. Obama described him as one of “the excellent partners” on the migrant children crisis and Trump endorsed Hernandez when he ran for re-election in 2017.

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Observations of an Expat: MAGA Conned

MAGA is waking up to the fact that it has been conned. Almost everyone else knew years ago that Donal J. Tump is a con artist whose talent lies in feeding prejudices with lies that people want to believe.

But in America—as in most countries—there is a socially conservative and fiscally liberal base of voters who are frightened of change while anxious about their bank balances. The Democrats and old school Republicans had failed them. Trump convinced them that he had the answer with his “Make America Great Again” campaign.

Proof of the MAGA’s disillusionment came this week in the form of a special election for a congressional seat in the deeply conservative state of Tennessee. The Republicans held it, but dropped nine points compared to the 2024 poll. If this result is reflected in next year’s mid-term elections then the Democrats will win up to 30 seats in the House of Representatives and possibly half a dozen in the Senate.

This would give the Democrats control of both houses of Congress and guarantee a third impeachment for Donald Trump.  On top of that, recent polls indicate that up to 18 Republican senators are prepared to break with the president. That would be enough to impeach, convict and remove Trump from the White House.

The causes of the disillusionment are many and varied. Top of the list is what has been termed the “affordability crisis.” For some reason, Trump insists that “the word affordability is a con job by the Democrats” and that prices are actually “way down.”

For any American who walks down a super market aisle this is an obvious porky pie (rhyming cockney slang for lie) that insults the intelligence of even the most loyal MAGA voter.

Inflation is not the only problem. MAGA is delighted at the dramatic drop in people attempting to cross America’s southern border. In 2022 they reached an historic high of 2.2 million apprehensions. In June 2025 they fell to an historic low of 6,000.

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