Category Archives: Op-eds

Liberal populism could be our missing political language

Among liberals, “populism” is a warning sign. It brings to mind angry speeches, conspiracy theories, and politicians who promise easy answers while blaming outsiders. Many of us instinctively reject it.

That instinct is understandable. Yet it may also be a mistake.

Populism, at its core, is a simple claim. It says that power has become too concentrated in the hands of a few people, and that ordinary citizens deserve more control over the decisions that affect their lives. That idea is not automatically extreme or dangerous. In fact, it fits comfortably within the liberal tradition.

Liberals have always believed that power should be questioned. Governments should be accountable. Monopolies should not dominate markets. We believe communities should have a real voice in decisions that shape their future.

In other words, challenging concentrated power is not alien to liberalism. It is part of its foundation.

The problem is that the political right has largely captured the language of populism. Politicians such as Nigel Farage claim to speak for “ordinary people” against elites. The message is clear and emotionally powerful. They say the system is broken and someone is to blame.

Too often, liberals respond by rejecting the idea of populism outright. Politics should be calm, rational, and evidence-based. Those things matter. But when we refuse to speak about power, fairness, and frustration, we leave a vacuum. And someone else will fill it.

Many people across Britain feel that the system does not work for them. They see energy bills rising while large companies make huge profits. They see housing becoming harder to afford. They see decisions about their communities made far away in Westminster. Whether every complaint is justified or not, the feeling that the system is unfair is widespread.

If liberals cannot acknowledge that feeling, we risk sounding distant from everyday concerns.

The answer is not to copy the angry populism we see elsewhere. It is to build a different kind of populism. One that is socially liberal, democratic, and rooted in fairness.

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New Chinese spy case and our Defending Democracy policy draft

Wednesday’s disturbing news on UK democracy interference is the Met’s arrest and a new Chinese espionage case. Among the suspects is the spouse of an MP.

Nigel Farage — the leader of a party with a senior member convicted for aiding Russia — has rushed to attack Labour and Keir Starmer. To rebut this hypocrisy, we must press ahead with our efforts to get the Government to place China in the Enhanced Tier of the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme (‘FIRS’) in the planned Democracy Bill.

We must not only defend our democracy from foreign interference; we must also keep our community informed about the scale of Chinese interference activities in the UK. Reform seeks to undermine trust in our institutions through mocking statements. By contrast, our push for China’s placement on the Enhanced Tier under FIRS will strengthen democratic participation by improving safeguards and raising public awareness.

It should also require Ministers and relevant officials to brief elected representatives on the extent of China’s foreign interference in the UK. That could mean stronger scrutiny of the China Audit (see my previous article), or transparency about which overseas Chinese “community aid” groups are facilitated by the United Front Work Department.

Placing China in the Enhanced Tier of FIRS does not intrude on individual liberties. On the contrary, it protects civil liberties by increasing transparency around institutions, software, and social media platforms that serve the Chinese party-state. With an Enhanced Tier mechanism, we can better understand the breadth and depth of the Russia–China—and, to an extent, Iran—bloc that spreads disinformation, fuels populist far-right sentiment, and channels political donations.

We must also show that the Liberal Democrats are the true safeguard of Britain’s resilience—by building a stronger Europe—rather than Reform’s pandering to a unilateral Trump-style America.

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“My life’s defeat would be emigration”: Encounters in Palestine during my recent visit in January 2026

Last month, I visited the occupied West Bank – against Foreign Office travel advise – to meet with Palestinian communities, hear their stories, and bear witness to the daily realities of life under Israel’s illegal occupation. As the daughter of a Holocaust survivor and a long-standing campaigner for Palestinian rights, I did not arrive uninformed. I have travelled regularly to the West Bank over many years and am well acquainted with the apartheid regime that Israel has established there. Yet the horrors I encountered still shocked me – not because they were new, but because of their scale, pace, and the growing sense of impunity surrounding them.

During our stay there were raids in towns including Jenin, Hebron and even Bethlehem. Each day, more raids, more arrests, and more land grabs. Palestinians spoke of living in a state of constant anxiety – of sleepless nights, stress-related illnesses, and a growing lack of faith in the ability of the legal system to protect them. Settlers can come, dispossess, and destroy, and the courts are often powerless to prevent this while the IDF largely supports and protects them.

In the village of Umm al-Khair in the South Hebron Hills, we saw a once-thriving community hemmed in by settlers on either side. The settlers have divided the village in two, building a road, planting Israeli flags, and stopping the villagers from reaching their grazing grounds. The villagers face constant harassment and countless demolition orders – even a patch of astroturf laid for children to play football has been slated for removal.

At the Tent of Nations, a Palestinian Christian family farm outside Bethlehem, nearby settlement infrastructure continues to expand, including a new road that cuts across the family’s land, preventing them from cultivating the other side. Daud, the Tent’s owner, uses legal means to protect his land but the Israeli courts keep delaying judgements and in the meantime the settlers encroach more and more.

In Bethlehem, we heard from those affected by Israel’s plans to clear Palestinians from the vicinity of the religious site Rachel’s Tomb. Representatives from Wi’am, a grassroots civil society organisation, told us how the IDF has been measuring and photographing their land and buildings situated right against the ‘security’ wall and adjacent to Rachel’s Tomb. Meanwhile, Clair Anastas, a Palestinian businesswoman, has only a few weeks to appeal the loss of her home, shop, and guesthouse as settlers nearby push to expand their illegal settlement.

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Why Ed Davey was wrong on ex pat rescue

I was pleased to hear most of Sir Ed Davey’s question following the PM’s statement on Monday.

I say most, because I thought he was doing well and saying the right things – until the unfair and unwarranted comments in his final sentences.

Now, don’t get me wrong – I’m not about to say that Isabel Oakeshott doesn’t deserve criticism, or indeed being brought down a peg or two; I’m absolutely all for that. However, given the seriousness of the events in the Gulf and of the consequences, it doesn’t seem to me to have been right or appropriate to make what came across as a pretty flippant comment, particularly after the sensible words he spoke before it. There’s a time and place for attacking people like her – this wasn’t it.

It’s also incorrect, though. Most people who have moved from the UK to Dubai aren’t doing it primarily to avoid paying tax. They’re not all bankers, or ‘influencers’, or ex-footballers. They’re teachers, doctors, nurses, social workers – people who have moved because they either can’t get a job in the UK or want to just enhance their own careers. After all, it was only a few weeks ago that Willie Rennie was pointing out the number of teachers who have left Scotland to go to places like Dubai because there’s no jobs at home.

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Power shared, not hoarded: finishing the argument

Roz Savage’s piece earlier this week, and Jack Meredith’s response to it, have done something worth building on. This is an attempt to follow the logic a few steps further, because I think it leads somewhere important.

The strongest thing in Savage’s piece is the power axis. “Power hoarded versus power shared” is not just better messaging than left versus right. It’s a more honest description of what’s actually happening in Britain. Decisions that shape people’s lives are made in places they can’t reach, by institutions they didn’t choose, in processes they can’t scrutinise. That’s a liberal problem, not just a left-wing one.

Meredith picks this up thoughtfully. He’s right that different liberal traditions notice different concentrations of power. Social liberals see material inequality. Market liberals see monopoly and cartel behaviour. Civil libertarians see the state. Bring them into the same room, and they converge, even if they arrive from different directions.

But there’s a step still to take.

If dispersing power is the organising principle, it can’t stop at constitutional reform. Democratic reform is necessary, but formal political power gets hollowed out when economic power remains sufficiently concentrated. In theory, everyone gets one vote. In practice, sufficient accumulation of wealth means your money votes for you in ways the ballot box never could: through political donations, through media ownership, through the ability to fund strategic litigation, through the simple fact that governments worry about the confidence of capital in ways they never worry about the confidence of people on a zero-hours contract. The dispersal of political power and the dispersal of economic power are the same argument. You can’t complete one without the other.

Concentrated wealth isn’t simply an inequality problem, though it is that too. It’s a power problem. When wealth compounds across generations, when returns to capital consistently outpace returns to labour, when a small number of individuals accumulate resources sufficient to shape political culture and purchase influence over public debate, that is a liberal emergency. Not a socialist one. A liberal one.

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A democratic case for public ownership of utilities

Britain has spent the last few decades running a national experiment. We have taken essential infrastructure that behaves like a monopoly, we put it in private hands, and we hope competition somehow emerges. I can’t blame the utilities executives. They got lucky and landed the utilities in the 80s, like some awful game of Monopoly we still pay for. No risk and all reward, what a deal!

The results are familiar to anyone who has navigated unreliable rail services or warned their children of the dangers of swimming in the sea that was safe in their childhood. When a market is a natural monopoly, public ownership is not a nostalgic slogan, it is the prudent way to align economic incentives with the public interest.

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Towards a third way – a reformed, liberal Palestinian party

When I welcomed a delegation of British Liberal Democrats to Jerusalem and Ramallah last week, led by Gavin Stollar OBE and the Party’s Foreign Affairs lead, Calum Miller MP, I was reminded that politics, at its best, is not a transaction but a relationship. It is built on trust, curiosity and, above all, friendship.

In a region where suspicion is often the default setting, the simple act of sitting together – listening, disagreeing respectfully, and breaking bread – can itself feel radical. Our conversations were frank. They were searching. They were, at moments, uncomfortable. And they were deeply encouraging.

I write this for Lib Dem Voice because what I encountered was not a party looking for slogans, but a movement seeking understanding. The delegation came not to lecture, nor to posture for headlines, but to ask difficult questions: What do Palestinians owe to peace? What political renewal is possible? Where does responsibility truly lie? And who, among Palestinian actors, is capable of delivering a future compatible with liberal democratic values?

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Not left, not right; pluralist: a response to Roz Savage MP

Roz Savage is right that “left” and “right” are poor maps for modern politics. Her alternative axes, especially “power hoarded vs power shared”, are a better guide to what voters feel in daily life. But there is a risk in the slogan “Not left. Not right. Liberal.” It is excellent as outward-facing messaging; it is incomplete as a description of our party.

The Liberal Democrats are not a single ideological bloc. We are a coalition, intentionally, and that breadth is a feature, not a bug. We were formed through a fusion of liberal and social democratic traditions, and our constitution frames our purpose as building a fair, free and open society by balancing liberty, equality and community. That triangle matters because it stops “liberal” from collapsing into a vague brand label.

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Mathew on Monday: What a Liberal Response to the Middle East crisis actually looks like

This morning I appeared on BBC Radio Leicester about the escalating situation in the Middle East. As ever with the region the headlines move fast, the rhetoric moves faster, and the human cost is felt fastest of all.

For me, this is not abstract. I have family members who live in Dubai. When tensions rise across the region, when missiles are launched, when airspace closes, and you read of security warnings flashing up on phones, it stops being a matter of general interest and becomes something deeply personal. You find yourself not as a commentator, but as a relative. You look at maps differently. You listen for tone as much as the facts. You check in with family to find out the latest and to ensure they’re safe and well.

That personal dimension only reinforces what I believe politically. A liberal response to crises like this begins with one simple principle: every human life has equal worth.
It sounds obvious, yet it is remarkable how quickly that principle is abandoned. People are reduced to labels, civilian casualties become statistics. Entire populations are spoken about as though they are monolithic, interchangeable, or even expendable. That is not liberalism. It is dehumanisation.
A liberal response rejects that instinct outright.

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Can we prevent Middle Eastern conflict dividing British politics and society?

Immediate domestic reactions to American bombing of Iran have displayed how divided British political parties are on Israel, Iran and US approaches to Middle Eastern politics. Priti Patel as Conservative shadow foreign secretary was firm in her support. Nigel Farage was even more enthusiastic and uncritical. Liberal Democrat MPs have been critical, and insistent that the UK should not become directly involved. Labour has been cautious, contributing only to ‘defensive’ operations against Iranian responses. The Greens have condemned the American attack. The old idea that politicians of all parties should stand shoulder to shoulder when international crisis threatens has long gone.

Attitudes to the USA partly shape this. But we have to be aware, in our ethnically and religiously diverse country, of the domestic dimension, and do whatever we can to limit bitter divisions abroad from becoming rooted within Britain. We have a valued and long-established Jewish community, many of whom are deeply unhappy about Bibi Netanyahu’s hardline policies but who nevertheless take their turn in guarding their synagogue and defending their community. We have also a growing Muslim community, from South Asia, Yemen, the Gulf states, Malaysia and East and West Africa – many first-generation immigrants, but most now their children, grandchildren or even great-grandchildren. Younger British Muslims naturally feel solidarity with their Palestinian and Iranian counterparts. Relations between British Hindus and Muslims of South Asian origin have in some places been adversely affected by Prime Minister Modi’s Hindu nationalism, feeding into a narrative of Islam under attack.

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Lessons from Sparta

Back in the Brexit years, the European Research Group of hard-line Conservative MPs christened themselves the “Spartans”. Perhaps they were drawn to the image of an elite warrior brotherhood, standing firm against overwhelming odds. Or perhaps they admired Sparta’s reputation as one of the most austere and uncompromising societies of the ancient world. Either way, they might have profited from a closer look at how Sparta’s story actually ended — and why.

Sparta guarded its citizenship with exceptional rigidity. Full political membership was reserved for those born to two Spartan parents, and even then only after passing through an unforgiving system of military training and communal discipline. Foreigners were periodically expelled under a policy known as xenelasia.

Over time, this inflexibility proved fatal. The number of full Spartan citizens declined dramatically, from roughly 8,000 around 480 BCE to perhaps little more than 1,000 a century later. Military losses played a part, as did growing inequality in land ownership, but the core problem was structural: citizenship was so restricted that the ruling class steadily withered. A society that defined itself by exclusion gradually deprived itself of resilience.

There is an uncomfortable parallel here for modern nations confronting demographic decline. Across much of Europe and East Asia, birth rates have fallen well below replacement level while populations age rapidly. Nationalists insist the answer lies in boosting native fertility. Yet the evidence suggests this is far easier said than done. Hungary, under Viktor Orbán, has devoted vast public resources to pro-natalist policies. While these measures may have shifted the timing of births, the overall fertility rate remains well below replacement. Even generous subsidies cannot easily reverse deep social and economic trends.

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Multiculturalism at its finest

There is so much talk these days about integration, multiculturalism and ways in which people settle in after moving to a different area, country or a continent. The narrative, driven by a number of politicians and media outlets, is most of the time negative and selective. It is not created for a reasonable debate, rational discussion, but rather to steer division and hatred.

Now…I am saying that the multiculturalism doesn’t bring social, cultural and economic challenges. I am also not saying that I naively believe in open borders and building “happy-clapping” society. I am talking about finding a balance, pragmatic solution to an issue that is affecting millions of people; individuals and families at home, as well as everyone who made a decision to leave a particular country.

Last night, I was asked to step in for the Mayor of Welwyn Hatfield, Cllr Lynn Chesterman, and attend the South Asian Mass, which was hosted by the Our Lady’s Queen of Apostles Church in Welwyn Garden City. As I was sitting in the first row, observing the most beautiful service, I was reflection on how our small community gathering can be an example of “laboratory of diversity” and become a beacon of light and hope in our society.

I believe that some of our politicians create walls of divisions, often not because they care, but because their main focus is to score points and win the next election. These topics lends themselves well to the current political discourse, which is greatly influenced by widespread polarisation.

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Welcome the complications…

From time to time on this site there has been reference to the limited usefulness of left and right in terms of describing political parties and the boundaries between them – including Roz Savage’s recent piece. In a less fluid political landscape I can remember the Huddersfield West Liberal MP wrestling with this in the 1960s. One of the curious features of left/right models is that parties find it easier to use the tags to describe their opponents than to define themselves. So what alternative labels are there? Are progressive and conservative any use? The former tends to be more slippery than the latter. What “no change” means is usually easier to recognise than what “change” means because you cannot discuss serious social and political change without facing the question “what sort of change?” Is ”progressive” somewhat susceptible to Lewis Carroll’s Humpty Dumpty doctrine: “When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean”?

In the aftermath of the Gorton and Denton by-election I want to have a go at seeing if “non-conservative” can help us. It seems to me that the Greens managed to defeat two conservative political entities – Farage’s party and the part of the Labour Party that is in government. Reform UK may or may not be seen as a replacement for the Conservative Party. What the billionaires do with their donations will be a factor. My hunch is that the story will not be like that of the Ulster Unionists who were caught up in a process of parties being replaced in turn by slightly more extremist parties until power finally came to rest with the DUP. There is a chance that what is left of the present Conservative Party could end up with some sort of deal with whatever Reform looks like when Farage’s dictatorial style leads to his own demise.

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The Greens copied our playbook. We shouldn’t copy theirs.

Labour’s old coalition was always a coalition of convenience. On one side: socially conservative, economically anxious working-class voters, whose politics were shaped by trade unions, community, and a deep suspicion of those at the top. On the other: socially progressive, increasingly comfortable metropolitans, whose politics were shaped by universities, public service, and a belief that social liberalism was self-evidently correct.

These two groups shared little except a common enemy: the Conservative Party. That enemy is gone, at least for now. And without it, the coalition is falling apart.

Lib Dem CEO Mike Dixon sent members a thoughtful analysis of what happened in the Gorton and Denton by-election and what it means for us long-term. He said tactical voting was more fluid and more decisive than at any election in living memory, and we are better placed than any other party to receive anti-Reform tactical votes across a wide range of seats.

He concludes that the only barrier to success at the next election is our scale on the ground. Build the teams, recruit the candidates, deliver the leaflets, and the opportunity is ours, he says.

I agree on the value of a good ground game, but I fear that is only half the answer.

Ground operations matter enormously, but they are generally designed to motivate our supporters and those who are prepared to lend us their votes to go to the polls. They do not create supporters from nothing. What creates them is a clear, consistent national message about what voting Lib Dem will actually get you. 

In the coming political melee, we need to be clear whose side we are on. That means policies that are worthy of the emotional punch our campaigns can deliver.

The Greens show what happens when you get this wrong. Their politics rest on a false premise: that environmental seriousness requires slower growth, higher costs, and less development. Growth versus nature as a zero-sum game. It sounds principled. It is actually a counsel of despair – and in the middle of a housing crisis, it falls hardest on the people who need the new homes.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

State of the Union

What a politician omits to say is often more important than what he says. There were two significant omissions during President Trump’s record-breaking State of the Union address on Tuesday night.

The first concerned Ukraine and the second Iran. Tuesday was also the day that Ukraine marked the fourth anniversary of the Russian invasion of their country. Notables from around the world gathered in Kyiv’s Maidan square to mark the occasion. Every Western country was represented – except the United States.

There was no American diplomat, politician or Trump-appointed delegate at this important and moving ceremony. The United States was conspicuous by its absence.

The Ukrainians were also hoping that somewhere in Trump’s speech there would be some mention of support for the Ukrainian cause. There was none. The only mention of Ukraine was in the context of negotiations which repeatedly fail because Trump insists on backing Russian proposals. These include the resignation of Volodomyr Zalensky; the ceding to Russia of all land that Russia currently occupies and more; the  neutering of the Ukrainian military and a pledge that Ukraine never join NATO. In short, total surrender.

Iran was mentioned in Tump’s nearly two-hour speech. But what was not mentioned was Trump’s intentions towards Iran. At the moment the largest concentration of US naval firepower since the 2003 Iraq War is gathered off the coast of Iran.  It includes two aircraft carrier groups which are comprised of two aircraft carriers, each with 75 fighter bombers and a complement of 7,000 personnel. Each aircraft carrier is supported by cruisers and destroyers, supply vessels, support ships and submarines. The cost to the US taxpayer is tens of millions per day.

Why they are there was omitted from Trump’s speech. Are they off the coast of Iran to threaten to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. The ones that were “obliterated” earlier this year. Or are they in Middle Eastern waters to protect Iranian protesters—tens of thousands of whom have been slaughtered by their own government. Or are they there to demand the destruction of Iran’s missile programme. Or, is Trump demanding a regime change and a combination of all of the above.

The fact is that Trump has no clear plan and that is how countries become embroiled in “forever wars.”

Ukraine

How do you calculate a nation’s war morale? Its willingness to fight. Its resilience and ability to absorb blow after blow and retain an air of optimism.

The analysts at the CIA, Royal Services Institute (RUSI) and the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) as well as military attaches are experts at counting men, missiles, tanks and planes. They factor in population sizes and supporting economies; place them on the military/diplomatic scales and come up with what is called the “strategic balance.”

But what they fail to include—what they cannot include—is a calculation that represents a country’s willingness to fight.

At the start of the Ukraine War the Russian military was 4.5 times bigger than Ukraine’s. Its economy was nine times larger, and its population was 3.5 times bigger. As Trump would say: The Russians had all the cards.

Or so it would seem. After four years the Ukrainians fought mighty Russia to a standstill. Putin’s economy appears to be faltering and there are reports of Russian officers forcing their troops at a gunpoint into suicide assaults.

On Tuesday the Ukrainians marked the fourth anniversary of the start of Putin’s War with a moving ceremony in Kyiv. It appeared to reveal that the Ukrainians are as determined to drive Putin’s men from their homes as they were four years ago.

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Roz Savage MP writes: Not left, Not right. Liberal.

Not Left. Not Right. Liberal.

The Green victory in the Manchester Gorton and Denton by-election should stiffen every Liberal Democrat spine.

Not because we suddenly face a new political opponent. But because it reveals something important about the electorate.

Voters are restless. They are frustrated with managerial politics. They are wary of institutions. And when they sense conviction, clarity and purpose – even if they do not agree with every detail – they respond positively.

That matters to us, and our future strategy. 

If we do not define clearly what Liberalism stands for, others will fill that space with their own narratives of change. The Manchester result is not simply about the Greens. It is about a wider hunger for something that feels principled and future-facing.

And that makes it more urgent than ever that we explain who we are.

Every few years someone tries to pin down the Liberal Democrats to a position on the traditional political spectrum. Are you left or right? Are you centrist?

It is an understandable question. British politics has trained us to see everything through that narrow lens – a straight line stretching from higher taxes to lower taxes, from big state to small state.

But that axis no longer explains the world we are living in. And it certainly does not capture what British Liberalism is about.

The word “liberal” has become slippery. Some hear it and think libertarian – no rules, no guardrails. Others assume it means American-style progressivism. Neither is correct. British Liberalism is its own tradition: rooted in liberty, fairness, community and the decentralisation of power.

If we accept the old frame, we fight on someone else’s battlefield. If we redefine it, we start telling a much more compelling story.

So what is the alternative?

Open vs Closed

The dividing line in modern politics is increasingly not economic theory but mindset.

Open politics is confident, cooperative and outward-looking. It believes Britain succeeds when we work with others, welcome new ideas, and adapt to change – to the excitement of new experiences and learning from others. It values evidence over dogma and sees diversity not as a threat but as enrichment.

Closed politics is defensive and tribal. It thrives on suspicion and nostalgia. It prefers blame to problem-solving.

That does not map neatly onto left or right. It cuts across them.

As Liberals, we are unapologetically on the side of openness – to trade, to ideas, to scrutiny, to renewal.

In Manchester, voters backed a party that projected a clear moral stance and a sense of direction. If we want to compete in that space, we must be equally clear about ours.

Power hoarded vs Power shared

If there is one axis that defines Liberalism more than any other, it is this.

Do we concentrate power in Westminster, in corporate monopolies, in unaccountable institutions? Or do we share it – and give power back to the people?

When we argue for electoral reform, we are arguing for shared political power.

When we back community energy and SMEs, we are arguing for shared economic power.

When we push for devolution, citizens’ assemblies, co-operatives and local procurement, we are saying that the people affected by decisions should shape them.

This is not technocracy. It is democratic imagination.

If we are centrists, it is purely because our belief in the individual means we are as wary of the reach of the state as we are about the clout of big business.

That instinct – sceptical of concentrated power wherever it sits – is the golden thread of British Liberalism.

And it is precisely this instinct that allows us to offer something distinctive in our winnable seats: not just protest, but power; not just anger, but agency.

Short-term vs Long-term

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Observations of an Expat: Shadow Fleet

Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers is now believed to be over 1,000-strong. The ships are 20-25 years old. Putin has neither the time nor the money to build all the ships he needs.

And he needs a lot because a major slice of Russia’s oil exports are seaborne. International oil sales provide 20 percent of the government’s revenues and the government is spending 40-60 percent of its revenues on the Ukraine War.

The floating rust buckets in the shadow fleet are uninsurable and an environmental disaster waiting to happen. But Putin doesn’t care about their seaworthiness. They are cheap to buy and run and thus make the big profits he needs to feed his war machine.

Stop the Shadow Fleet and you seriously damage the Russian war effort.

Trump has shown the way – possibly. Those are words that have never before appeared in this blog and are unlikely to ever appear again. But as far as dealing with the growing sanctions-busting shadow fleet of oil tankers goes, the US president could be the trend setter.

In recent weeks, Donald Trump has ordered the boarding of seven oil tankers; arrested the crew; sailed the ships to a safe port; impounded the vessels and their cargo and announced plans to sell both.

It was a bold move and the legal framework for Trump’s moves is—to say the least—dicey. The procedure goes something like this—the US tracks a vessel with satellites; monitors its signals; checks to see if it is manipulating its Automatic Identification System (which is illegal); watches to see if it is transferring oil to other ships (also illegal); is uninsured or operating under a false flag (both illegal).

If it is doing anything likely to contravene the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)  then it can be deemed a suspect “stateless vessel.” As such it can be boarded. Its cargo, registration papers, insurance documents can be checked along with the ship’s seaworthiness. If it is found wanting in any of the above then it is confirmed as “stateless.” The crew is arrested. The ship sailed to a safe port and the vessel and cargo are impounded.

The Royal Navy would love to follow suit. So would the French and the Scandinavians. The French have already detained one shadow fleet tanker in the Mediterranean (the Grinch) and the Royal Navy participated in the detention of a ship in the North Atlantic (the Marinera).

But it is in the Baltic and the English Channel where the shadow fleet is most vulnerable. A large proportion of the Russia’s tanker-borne oil is loaded at Primorsk or Ust-loga and sails through the Baltic, the Danish Straits and then the North Sea and the English Channel on their way to Asia via the Mediterranean and the Suez Canal.

That first leg is largely British and Scandinavian territorial waters where local navies could easily board the shadow fleet tankers.

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Lib Dem takeaways from Gorton and Denton

It would be very churlish not to congratulate Hannah Spencer and the Greens this morning. It’s a good feeling to win a by-election. Having another young, progressive woman in Parliament is so much better a result than it could have been.

The Greens did pretty much our playbook and took a seat that, in other times, we would have grabbed and we have to ask ourselves whether the strategy that allowed that to happen is one that we wish to continue.

The result was:

Green Party – 14,980 40.7%.            +28%
Reform UK – 10,578  28.7%               +15%
Labour Party – 9,364  25.4%               -25%
Conservative Party – 706 1.9%.            -6%
Liberal Democrats – 653 1.8%              -2%
Monster Raving Loony Party – 159
Advance UK – 154
Rejoin EU Party – 98
Libertarian Party – 47
Social Democratic Party – 46
Communist League – 29
The total number of votes cast was 36,814, with a voter turnout of 47.62%.

First up, this is a total and utter failure by Reform. This is the third by-election they were supposed to walk but lost after Hamilton and Caerphilly. They threw the entire contents of the luxury kitchen at it. And of course they are doing the Trump thing by complaining it was “sectarian” and stolen from them by illegal “family voting.”  Their blatant racism is unsurprising.

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Drugs, Crime and Common Sense

For four years I worked in His Majesty’s Prison Service. Most of my time was spent with two groups: vulnerable prisoners, often those convicted of sexual offences who couldn’t safely be located on normal wings, and men struggling with addiction. What I learned there shaped my view on drugs more than any political argument ever could.

The truth is uncomfortable. If you are born with a tough set of circumstances, poverty, unstable housing, parents battling substance misuse, you are statistically far more likely to face those same issues yourself. The data backs this up. Around 46% of people in prison report having used drugs in the month before custody. Nearly two-thirds report regular alcohol use before entering prison. A significant proportion have experienced childhood trauma, been in care, or grown up in chaotic households. This isn’t coincidence. It’s a pipeline.

County lines has made it worse. The National Crime Agency estimates that thousands of children are exploited each year in drug distribution networks. These are not criminal masterminds. Many are 14, 15, 16-year-olds groomed by older gang members, often threatened or coerced. Research shows that some county lines “runners” earn less than minimum wage once debts and exploitation are factored in. Yet they risk prison or death.

I remember one young man vividly. He was 18 years old. No stable family. No strong guidance. He had been on remand in the adult prison where I worked. I asked him how his court case had gone. He told me quietly: “I got life.” He had stabbed someone over a bicycle — a situation rooted in drug-related conflict. Two young lives destroyed. Two families shattered. And the state left to deal with the aftermath for decades.

We cannot police our way out of this.

The UK spends billions each year on drug enforcement, policing, courts and imprisonment. Yet drug-related deaths in England and Wales are at record levels, over 4,900 in the most recent annual figures. That is the highest rate since records began. Meanwhile, our prisons are overcrowded, and reoffending rates remain stubbornly high — around 25% overall, and much higher for short sentences.

Other countries have tried something different. Portugal decriminalised personal possession of all drugs in 2001. Drug use did not explode. Instead, drug-related deaths and HIV transmission fell sharply. The European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction reports that Portugal’s drug mortality rate remains significantly below the European average. Crucially, drug use became a public health issue rather than purely a criminal one.

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Scottish Liberal Democrats call for measures to tackle medical misogyny

Scottish Lib Dem Women, the official Lib Dem organisation representing women, took a motion to Scottish Conference at the weekend which called on the Scottish Government to improve women’s health care.

Medical misogyny refers to the gender bias or discrimination women can experience when accessing healthcare.

Instances of medical misogyny include the dismissal of pain as “normal”, a lack of research into women’s healthcare and a general lack of understanding among many GPs.

Medical misogyny can lead to longer waiting times for gynaecological care, which have increased by more than 250% over the last seven years in Scotland.

The motion called on the Scottish Government to:

  • Launch a public awareness campaign for both medical professionals and the wider public to remove the stigma faced by women seeking help for their reproductive health.
    Improve access to diagnosis, end dismissal of symptoms and the normalisation of pain faced by women.
  • Tackle postcode lotteries of care by enhancing understanding of conditions, including but not limited to, endometriosis, the menopause, polycystic ovary syndrome, hyperemesis and ectopic pregnancies.
  • Embed a better understanding within the NHS of the effects of reproductive health conditions on period poverty, women’s mental health and women in the workplace.
  • Vastly reduce waiting times for referrals and then treatment, especially in gynaecology and urology.
  • Improve training and standards across NHS services in Scotland.
  • Increase research into reproductive health over a women’s life course, moving away from the belief that this is a ‘niche’ area.

The motion is part of the Scottish Liberal Democrats’ broader strategy to tackle misogyny and Violence Against Women and Girls (VAWG).

The debate was emotional, thoughtful and powerful as women shared their sometimes awful experiences in accessing healthcare.

You can watch it here.

Christine Jardine said:

There are too many women who have effectively been told to put up and shut up when accessing healthcare.

There is an insidious and entrenched prejudice around women’s pain, and the cost can be devastating. It can lead to conditions being undiagnosed, to misdiagnosis and, ultimately, to an eroding confidence amongst women about the point of reporting symptoms at all.

The SNP have only added fuel to the fire: by mismanaging our NHS over two decades, they have made it much tougher to deliver the care that women need.

Progress on the women’s health plan has been slow; ministers need to step up and get on with making plans a reality.

Women deserve a system that they can trust and depend on. To build that system, we should be moving heaven and earth to increase awareness and understanding of women’s healthcare, ramp up training and research, and end the damaging waits for diagnosis and treatment.

Kirsten Herbst-Taylor from Dumfries and Galloway proposed an amendment calling for annual gynaecological screening for women. She has been living with Stage 4 Ovarian Cancer and she told Conference:

When I was diagnosed during a routine check-up at my local GP surgery, the disease was already advanced. I underwent extensive surgery and six rounds of chemotherapy.

I am here today because of the extraordinary skills of the surgical team at the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh — Dr Pete Sanderson and Professor Stephen Wigmore — and because of the expertise and steady care of my oncologist, Dr Rachel Nirsimloo.

We are incredibly fortunate to have such dedication and excellence within NHS Scotland. I am deeply grateful for the treatment I have received.

But gratitude for treatment must sit alongside urgency about prevention.

In Scotland, around 600 women are diagnosed with ovarian cancer every year. It is the most lethal gynaecological cancer. Across the UK, fewer than half of women are diagnosed at an early stage.

Stage at diagnosis changes everything.

When ovarian cancer is detected at Stage I, around 95 percent of women survive five years or more. At Stage IV, that figure falls to around 15 percent.

That is not a marginal difference. It is the difference between life expectancy measured in decades and life expectancy measured in years.

We have national screening programmes for breast and cervical cancer. We do not have one for ovarian cancer. Instead, we rely on women recognising vague symptoms and primary care identifying a rare disease early enough to alter outcomes.

That is not a systematic early detection strategy.

I am asking this conference to support the establishment of a national screening programme for ovarian and other gynaecological cancers, and to give women the entitlement to an annual gynaecological check-up, including ultrasound where clinically appropriate.

Even at Stage 4, there is hope. Treatment advances mean many women now live for years with good quality of life. But earlier diagnosis reduces the need for aggressive treatment and dramatically improves survival.

With survival at around 95 percent when ovarian cancer is detected early, and only around 15 percent at the most advanced stage, the evidence is clear: early detection saves lives. A national screening programme and annual gynaecological checks are not optional — they are necessary.

Let’s make this a reality.

Central Scotland candidate Lucy Smith told of her experience of endless visits to the doctor with abdominal pain and being dismissed. After too long, she was diagnosed with Crohn’s Disease. Lucy’s experience was almost identical to that of someone I love very much and it is infuriating that both of those young women had to experience years of hell.

Beatrice Wishart MSP talked about the importance of training future doctors in these issues – asking how many women had been fitted with IUDs without pain relief, being told they would experience only slight discomfort.

Jacquie Bell spoke very movingly of her traumatic birth experience and how the refusal of her doctor to consider home birth meant that her child never had any siblings.

While my own childbirth was not nearly as traumatic, I told the Conference how I basically ran away and hid for a few hours after a male obstetrician told a midwife without reference to me to just break my waters and get on with it. I also added that every time I went to the doctor after I turned 40, no matter what with, it was put down to the menopause. And now I come to think of it, that might be why it took 3 months to get my Glandular Fever diagnosis back in 2009.

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From broadsheet to outrage factory: the decline of the Spectator and the Telegraph

Liberals should care about the collapse of serious conservative journalism. Not because the Spectator and the Daily Telegraph were ever friends to progressive politics (they weren’t), but because a functioning liberal democracy depends on a press that engages honestly with reality across the political spectrum. What has replaced these publications’ particular brand of reactionary journalism is something considerably worse: reactionary journalism stripped of any pretence to intellectual seriousness. And that is bad for everyone.

Let us be clear about what these publications actually were. The Spectator spent much of the twentieth century providing intellectual cover for policies that entrenched inequality and treated the interests of the powerful as synonymous with the national interest. The Telegraph was the unabashed voice of privilege: the paper of the officer class, the Home Counties, the quietly certain that things were arranged more or less as they ought to be. To mourn their decline is not to pretend they were ever on the right side of history. It is simply to note that the seeds of today’s dysfunction were present in the editorial culture all along: a culture that prioritised tribal comfort over truth, and consistently failed to hold power to account when that power wore a blue rosette.

The lurch, and what drove it

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Labour’s SEND white paper gets the destination right and the journey wrong

Today’s Schools White Paper on SEND reform is, in certain respects, a document Liberal Democrats should welcome. The investment is substantial: £1.6 billion for an Inclusive Mainstream Fund, £1.8 billion for specialist services, and a long-overdue write-off of 90 per cent of local authority SEND deficits that were pushing councils toward effective bankruptcy. The aspiration, a well-resourced, inclusive mainstream, with early intervention, genuine specialist support, and families treated as partners rather than adversaries, is the right one.

The problem is not the destination. It is the route the government has chosen to get there.

A right is not the same as a promise

The Education, Health and Care Plan, for all its bureaucratic weight, is one of the few places in the British welfare system where an individual holds a judicially enforceable claim on the state. Not a guidance note. Not a promise from a minister at the despatch box. A right. Local authorities that fail to deliver what an EHCP specifies can be taken to the SEND tribunal, and families win the overwhelming majority of those cases, most conceded before a hearing takes place. That near-universal success rate tells you not that the tribunal is lenient, but that the system routinely under-delivers and only corrects itself when legally compelled.

The White Paper proposes to replace many of those plans with Individual Support Plans. ISPs would carry a statutory duty and be monitored by Ofsted. What they would not carry is tribunal enforceability. That mechanism remains available only for EHCPs, which would be reserved for children with the most complex needs. The government projects that EHCP coverage will fall from 5.8 per cent of pupils today to 4.7 per cent by 2034/35. That is not a side effect. It is the stated aim.

When Schools Minister Georgia Gould was pressed this morning on whether children could lose their plans at reassessment, she declined to give a direct answer. She said her job was to talk about the investment being put in. That is not good enough. And Liberal Democrats should say so clearly.

The sequencing problem

The new plans are not proposed to come into force until 2030. The narrowed threshold is intended to begin operating sooner. Children currently in Year 2 and below will face reassessment of their EHCP at the primary-to-secondary transition under the new, tighter criteria.

This timing could not be worse, and it contradicts what we know about how neurodivergent children experience school. Many autistic children, particularly girls, spend primary school masking their difficulties. They exhaust themselves performing adequately, and the cracks appear precisely when secondary school changes the demands on them: different teachers every period, less structure, more social complexity, higher academic pressure. The ‘secondary crash’ is documented in attendance figures, CAMHS referrals, and late diagnosis rates. Removing or weakening legally enforceable support at that exact transition is not evidence-based policy. It is the opposite.

The Children’s Commissioner has called on ministers to confirm that no child will lose their EHCP as a result of these changes. That confirmation has not been forthcoming. The assurance that “effective support” will not be removed is not the same as guaranteeing that no child loses what their current plan specifies.

Who bears the risk?

Lib Dems understand, better than most, that equality of formal rights is not the same as equality in practice. The Sutton Trust’s October 2025 report found that among parents of children in special schools, 41 per cent from wealthier backgrounds had successfully secured a place, compared with 25 per cent from low-income families. The gap exists because navigating SEND requires resources: private assessments, legal advice, time. When the legal mechanism weakens, it is not wealthy families who absorb the loss.

This is a liberal argument as much as an equalities one. Freedom that can only be exercised by those with the means to assert it is not freedom. It is privilege in freedom’s clothing.

The White Paper asks families to accept a weaker backstop on the promise that something better is coming. For a community that has spent years learning, through hard experience, that the system withholds support until crisis is the only option, that is a very large ask.

What the Lib Dems should push for

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Mathew on Monday

Hope from The Hague: What Rob Jetten’s victory means for liberals everywhere

Today, in the Netherlands, something quietly historic has happened.

Rob Jetten, leader of Democrats 66, has become Prime Minister. The youngest ever (at 38) and the first openly gay person to hold the office.

Pause on that.

In a European political landscape where we are so often told that the future belongs to the angry, the polarising and the populist, the Dutch electorate has chosen something else. They have chosen the broad, confident Centre.

They have chosen liberalism.

For we Liberal Democrats, there is real encouraging here. Yes it’s a different country with …

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New UK Border Regulations display contemptuous disregard for dual nationals

In mid February, UK dual nationals were alerted by media reports to an imminent change in immigration regulations. This involves the requirement that dual nationals present their UK passport at the overseas airline check-in desk before boarding any flight to the UK, or that they present (alongside their foreign passport) a ‘Certificate of Entitlement’ to Right of Abode in the UK, priced at a whopping £589.

This deeply concerns many of us in Liberal Democrats Overseas, and we expect the Party to speak out loudly and forcefully on this matter. Will Forster MP, our shadow immigration and asylum minister, has rightly condemned the government’s ‘lack of planning and haphazard communication’ and has called for a ‘grace period’ to enable dual nationals to obtain the necessary documentation. But while a grace period would certainly be welcome, it is not enough. This latest kick in the teeth for dual nationals fits a pattern of contempt for Britons with multinational families on the part of both Labour and Tory governments. Liberal Democrats must stand up for the rights and dignity of all British citizens, whatever their family circumstances.

The core issue in this instance is not the timing of the new immigration measures or the poor publicity. It is the imposition of a £589 charge on dual nationals simply so that they can demonstrate their Right of Abode in the UK (without applying for a UK passport). The cost of a full UK passport currently stands at £95. The government has provided no justification for the exorbitant cost of the ‘Certificate’. This is clearly just one more crude attempt to put the squeeze on overseas British nationals with international family ties; another being the expensive and Kafkaesque regulations surrounding spouse visas.

For those dual nationals who do hold a UK passport, the requirement to show it at an airline check-in desk before flying to the UK is potentially perilous. Many UK dual nationals hold the citizenship of and reside in countries where dual nationality is illegal. Compelling those who hold UK passports to show them at the airport check-in desk could expose them to arrest and prosecution – simply for holding a document to which they are entitled under UK law. Consider, for example, the risks faced by a British-Iranian dual national visiting Tehran who would now be required to show their British passport at airport check-in there in order to re-enter the UK.

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This is how wars start

I’ve watched the images of two American aircraft carriers moving toward the Middle East and I don’t feel reassured.

I feel uneasy.

Let me say something clearly before anyone tries to misrepresent this: I despise the Iranian regime. I despise what it does to its own people. I despise its repression of women, its crushing of dissent, its morality police, its execution of protesters, its export of proxy militias, and its cynical use of religion to entrench power. The Iranian people deserve better than the system that rules them.

But despising a regime does not mean losing the ability to think strategically.

The USS Abraham Lincoln is already operating in the Arabian Sea. The USS Gerald R. Ford, the most advanced aircraft carrier ever built, has been ordered into the region. These are 100,000-ton warships, roughly 1,100 feet long, carrying more than 4,500 people each. Floating cities. Human beings. Sailors with families.

They are symbols of American power. Symbols can become targets.

Iran is not Iraq in 2003. It is not Libya. It is not Syria. This is a regime that survived eight years of total war against Saddam Hussein. During the Iran–Iraq War, hundreds of thousands died. Cities burned. Chemical weapons were used. And still, the state endured.

For 47 years, the Islamic Republic has prepared for confrontation with the United States. That is not hyperbole it is embedded in its military doctrine and national identity.

Now place two aircraft carriers within reach of its missile forces, near the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway barely 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point. One of the most militarised chokepoints on earth.

Iran possesses medium-range ballistic missiles such as the Shahab-3, with a range of roughly 1,300 kilometres. It fields the Khorramshahr, assessed at up to around 2,000 kilometres. It has unveiled the Fattah-1, described by Tehran as hypersonic, with a claimed range of about 1,400 kilometres. It deploys anti-ship cruise missiles. It manufactures Shahed-136 drones designed for saturation attacks,launched in waves, intended to overwhelm.

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The Heart of Wales gets a bypass; Cardiff gets the stent.

It’s become all too common for Mid Wales to be neglected by the Welsh Government whenever rail investment is announced. This week’s announcement from the Prime Minister and First Minister, endorsing Transport for Wales’ long-term rail vision, is more of the same.

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Liberal Democrats have recently commented on this, highlighting that of the confirmed £445 million out of a possible £14 billion from the 2025 Spending Review settlement, seven new stations have been announced: six situated between Cardiff and Newport, and one in North Wales. Mid Wales, meanwhile, will receive no new stations or any additional investment for infrastructure upgrades, route resilience or signalling improvements.

I live in Neath Port Talbot, within reach of Swansea and Cardiff, so my area tends to get a fair share of Senedd funding. But I have family in Mid Wales, and our lives could not be more different. While I have access to hospitals on my doorstep, my family in Mid Wales has to travel to Hereford. While I have a plethora of public transport options, my family in Mid Wales is restricted to very infrequent buses and, as highlighted above, a rail service which its own government is prone to neglecting.

David Chadwick MP and Jane Dodds MS have raised these issues time and again, to little to no response from the Welsh and UK governments. After a while, you stop wondering whether Mid Wales was forgotten and start suspecting it was simply never included.

The fundamental problem here is not that South East Wales is getting investment. It should. Cardiff and Newport are economic engines, and better rail in the corridor is good for jobs, housing, and commuting. The problem is the way this is packaged and prioritised; it is presented as a Wales-wide “generational” shift, while the confirmed commitments tell a much narrower story. When the Prime Minister can list seven stations and six of them sit in one corridor, you are not looking at a national connectivity strategy; you are looking at a commuter belt strategy with a press release attached.

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Watch: Ed Davey’s speech to Scottish Conference: A positive Lib Dem vision for Scotland

I have to be honest, it’s a while since I’ve watched Ed Davey’s Conference speech live. I’m usually to be found at Not the Leader’s Speech. I mean, I can watch the speech on You Tube later, but the precious time with my friends I only see twice a year can’t be replaced.

However, the pubs weren’t open yesterday morning at 10 am when he delivered his speech to Scottish Conference. Having not seen him do this for a while, I have to say he’s really become a lot more confident in his delivery and his stage presence has become significantly more compelling.

He paid generous tributes to both Ming Campbell and Jim Wallace, whose absence was felt by us all.

There have been times when having the federal leader in Scotland has had our press team in spasms of anxiety because they could never be sure what he was going to come out with that might not be helpful, but Ed was 100% on message, amplifying our theme of “Change with fairness at its heart”

A choice between our Liberal change, and Nigel Farage’s Trump change.

Liberal Democrat change – true to British values. Transforming our economy, improving our public services and renewing our politics.

The real change people crave.

Change with fairness at its heart.

Or Farage’s change. Change away from the country we love, to a version of Trump’s America we fear.

Setting people’s sights lower. Becoming smaller, meaner.

Closing the country off. Turning inwards. Talking about all the things we can’t do.

I don’t think Farage’s vision befits Scotland or our great United Kingdom.

So friends, let’s use the coming elections to make the case for the positive Liberal Democrat change – change with fairness at its heart.

Enjoy!

The text is below

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Peace requires truth, not rhetoric

As Liberal Democrats, we pride ourselves on internationalism grounded in law, evidence and moral seriousness. That is precisely why the increasingly casual use of the word “genocide” in debates about Israel and Gaza should concern us.

The 2024 provisional measures issued by the International Court of Justice did not determine that Israel has committed genocide. The Court found that there was a plausible risk requiring provisional steps to prevent escalation. That is not the same as a finding of genocidal intent – the specific legal threshold required under the Genocide Convention. No final judgment has been delivered.

To present provisional measures as proof of genocide is legally inaccurate and politically inflammatory. If we are a party that believes in international law, we must represent its rulings faithfully — not selectively.

None of this means Palestinian suffering is not real. It is devastating. Civilian casualties in Gaza have been tragic. Settlement expansion in the West Bank remains wrong and corrosive to the prospects of a viable Palestinian state. Rhetoric from Israeli ministers such as Bezalel Smotrich rejecting Palestinian statehood is damaging both morally and strategically.

But outrage cannot substitute for analysis.

The war did not begin in a vacuum. It followed the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust – an attack by Hamas that deliberately targeted civilians and sought to provoke exactly the kind of regional conflagration we are now witnessing. All hostages have now returned, many tragically murdered, but that does not erase the crime or Israel’s legitimate security concerns.

A sustainable two-state solution requires an Israel that is secure from armed groups committed to its destruction. That principle cannot be abandoned simply because it complicates the narrative.

Nor can we ignore Palestinian political failure.

The Palestinian Authority, dominated by Fatah, has for years been crippled by corruption, patronage networks and absolute democratic decay. President Mahmoud Abbas is now in the twentieth year of what was meant to be a four-year term. Elections have been repeatedly postponed. Dissent is suppressed. Critics and journalists have been harassed or detained. Security coordination is often designed less to build accountable governance and more to maintain elite control.

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WATCH: Alex Cole-Hamilton’s speech to Scottish Conference: Lib Dem revival will get things done

For the first time in over twenty years, the Scottish Liberal Democrats can approach the Holyrood elections with a degree of optimism. Our Conference this weekend was buzzing. Held in Dynamic Earth, a tourist attraction overlooking the Holyrood Parliament (well worth a visit if you are in Edinburgh), there was a real feeling that this was our time.

Introduced by two recent by-election winners, leader Alex Cole-Hamilton said that we were on the cusp of a huge Liberal Democrat revival and the presence of a large number of Lib Dem MSPs would mean that we would get things done. He said we were aiming to win 10 constituencies, up from four, and gain on the peach ballot.

Watch here:

The full text is below:

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Russia

Russia is a petro-state. Its economy. Its ability to feed its people and, most important of all, its ability to wage war, is tied to the price of a barrel of oil. Twenty percent of government revenues come from the oil and gas industries.

Back at the start of the Ukraine War the price of oil peaked at $120 a barrel. Vladimir Putin was able to wage war, pay pensions and maintain social services while keeping inflation under control and fending off sanctions.

This week oil prices dipped to $62 a barrel. And to persuade the likes of China, Hungary and Slovakia to face the wrath of sanctiongs-imposing countries,  Moscow discounts the oil price by $20 a barrel.

But there is more. One of Russia’s biggest oil customers was India. Recently, Narendra Modi caved in to American pressure and dramatically cut Russian oil imports.

And there is still more. The Americans, French, British, Swedes and others are starting to board and impound ships in the “shadow fleet” of unregistered oil tankers carrying sanctioned oil around the world. Sixty percent of the roughly 1,000-strong “shadow fleet” of oil  tankers are believed to be carrying Russian  oil.

All of above, plus the cost of the war, is beginning to be borne by ordinary Russians. Food inflation, for instance, has soared by 12 percent since Christmas. And if Russians want to eat out that option is fast disappearing along with restaurants and cafes displaying “Open” signs.

Growth in the Russian economy is slowing to a crawl last year it grew by just 0.6 percent and the IMF forecast for this year is 0.4 percent. VAT has gone up. Interest rates are 15.5 percent. Corporate taxes have increased. The government is twisting the arms of bank managers to buy war bonds and the sovereign wealth fund has shrunk from $130 billion at the start of 2025 to $50 billion.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov is under increasing pressure to produce new and better money-making ideas. His latest is government-owned online casinos.

None of the above is surprising when one considers that the defense budget is reckoned to take up between 40-60 percent of the government budget.

Ukraine is in a terrible state. But Russia—with a million war casualties on top of its economic problems—is not far behind in the war of attrition.

Japan

The unexpected landslide victory of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party has opened the door to a long-cherished aim of Japanese conservatives—revision of the constitution to allow Japan greater military freedom.

In the aftermath of World War Two the allies forced a constitution on Japan which “forever renounced” war. Over the years the pacifist document has been re-interpreted several times to allow the development of a formidable “self-defense force.” But the Japanese military is still constitutionally prohibited from participating in foreign wars or building any weapons that allow them to do so.

Takaichi wants to change the constitution to allow Japan to develop a “more normal” military. With a two-thirds majority in the DIET she can achieve that aim.

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