Category Archives: Op-eds

Defence and Security: at the heart of liberal societies

In the midst of the pandemic, in summer 2020, the National Liberal Club (located just minutes from the Palace of Westminster) decided to support a group styled the Defence & Security Circle.

This initiative has seen the creation of a programme of regular 60 minute online talks, topical seminars and NATO funded outreach events that touch on some hard issues.

  • Having conversations about the national interest in the national interest.
  • Driven by contemporary issues such as facial recognition technology, cyber security, cultural change in the Armed Forces or “how spies think” the DSC has become a key location in London reaching local, national and international audiences.
  • Always free, often fearless and at times radical, we are proud of our liberal foundations.
  • Having a forum that allows liberal minded people to debate and consider key policy questions and strategic choices was important. Equally valued was a commitment to ensure that the voices promoted were inclusive: a majority of our speakers have been women and one in four contributors have been drawn from minority communities. Ideas matter.

The war in Ukraine reminds us all of the price to be paid when illiberal, toxic and undemocratic regimes feel emboldened to threaten or harm free societies. Peace, security and individual liberty are worthy values to protect and in need defend.

NATO trusted the DSC to run an innovative program to counter fake news and disinformation in December of last year. London, Edinburgh and Manchester – reaching 600 stakeholders.

As an “all party group” we value our origins in the broader liberal progressive tradition shared by so many in the LibDem family. Being non-partisan allows us to also have supporters and participants from across civil society – often those without the ability to be “political” due to their profession or areas of responsibility. It is a space for robust but respectful discourse.

Our next free talk (contact me via [email protected] for a seat) is Monday 4 April: Mark Galeotti (Russia expert, former FCO officer, author and commentator) on the “Weaponisation of Everything.”

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Covid: two years on the Government has abandoned any form of public health strategy

In March 2020, just before the first lockdown, I penned a piece for Lib Dem Voice on the Government being behind the curve in implementing Covid restrictions. Last year in March 2021, I wrote a follow-up article saying we weren’t out of the woods. Now another year on, where are we?

The Office for National Statistics estimated in the week ending 12 March that around 3.3 million people in the UK had COVID-19. Of course, sadly, this increase in cases is now leading to increased hospitalisations and deaths. According to official statistics, There were 13,844 people admitted to hospital with Covid in the week to 19 March and there were 877 deaths in the 7 days to 23 March (up 133 on the previous week).

The fact that Covid patients are now filling up more beds in hospital again means that non-urgent treatment and operations are more likely to be cancelled – compounded by the fact that NHS hospitals are facing critical under-staffing, both because of existing staff shortages and because more NHS staff are now themselves off sick with Covid.

Many health experts are deeply concerned about all this. Where is the plan? Almost all restrictions have now been lifted, certainly in England, and people can no longer protect themselves in public spaces such as on trains and in shops as mask wearing has fallen off sharply. For people who are clinically vulnerable – maybe because they have an immunological disorder or because they on medication that lowers their immunity – this is quite a frightening prospect. The fact that the Government is now introducing fourth Covid jabs for people aged over 75 or those who are clinically vulnerable is very welcome, but otherwise letting Covid rip through the population seems irresponsible, especially as there is evidence that more people are becoming reinfected with the newer Omicron variant. The herd immunity argument never worked.

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Spring Statement 2022: perspective of an unpaid carer

Yesterday, 23rd March 2022, Rishi Sunak delivered his Spring Statement 2022. It included a 5p cut in fuel duty and a rise in the National Insurance threshold by £3,000. But what caught my eye, on a personal note, was the lack of support for unpaid carers.

I have been looking after my grandfather now for nearly 2 years, in that time receiving £270 a month for my work. Now, I don’t begrudge looking after my grandfather as I want to keep him alive and well for as long as possible; my parents, grandparents and I have always lived in the same house together since I was born, so it’s always felt like having a second set of parents for me.

But something that I can’t ignore is the way this government has consistently ignored unpaid carers. Sunak has so far delivered 3 budgets as Chancellor, with no help or support given to us. The gap between the government’s perception of reality, and reality itself, is widening week-on-week. Amid a cost of living crisis, they think £270 a month is enough to cover rising bills – that’s let not forget, have increased due to their own lack of economic intervention – and then go as far as to expect us to be grateful?

Caring for my grandfather is a privilege, as I know I’m playing an important role in maintaining his health and well-being. But caring comes at a cost; adding to my already fragile mental health through 24/7 worrying, sacrificing 2 years of my life to pick up where this government has failed. And on that very point, this government assumes we only care for loved ones 5 hours a day, as we’re paid for 35 hours a week.

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Tony Greaves

It is a year today since Tony died.  I have been talking with other friends and his family about how best to remember him in a way which captures both the essence of the man and the extent of his contribution to Liberalism and his party over 60 years of activism.  I finish by asking how we to remember Tony and build on the massive legacy of his life in Liberalism.

Tony had the most secure moral compass for Liberalism of anyone I have known.  Time and again, his reaction to events demonstrated an instinctively Liberal mind.  He applied Liberalism as a profound value to challenges, believing that deep, Liberal values would offer the best solutions.  His immediate responses often offered a clear analysis and understanding which showed the natural direction for Liberal political action.  One reason why he was dismissive and angry at times at people with power in his Party and beyond was simply that they didn’t have that instinctive grasp of a Liberal response.  He could be difficult at times, but it would be worth thinking as well about how often he was actually right on the substance of matters.

Tony was the single most important contributor to the growth of the Liberal Party and the Liberal Democrats between 1970 and 1997.  By-election victories built on the ideas and campaigning methods of community politics as did the growth of local parties and council groups from wards to towns to counties to regions to success in Parliamentary elections.  The Association of Liberal Councillors led that work and Tony led the ALC during those formative years.  Those successes were based, more than on any other single element, on Tony’s painstaking, committed, patient work with activists, campaigners and Council Groups to help them, often one by one, to learn about campaigning and winning; always emphasising the need to find an activist’s personal voice that was securely founded in Liberal ideas, along with a commitment to making a Liberal difference in the life of a community or a person.

That’s why he found it difficult to understand those who see liberalism as being defined by a long process of producing disconnected policies.  For him, the policy was the Liberal value, applied to a circumstance.  He wanted those deep, Liberal values to drive every single response, from potholes through to global relations.  What unites us as Liberals is not loads of policies, it’s one approach to everything.

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An informal Lib-Lab pact makes sense – but is it a poison chalice for the Lib Dems?

On paper, an informal Lib-Lab pact at the next General Election makes sense. Whatever you want to call it – informal, non-aggressive, unofficial, secret – an agreement is reportedly in place, and it makes political sense.

It makes political sense as we are in a unique situation. The Lib Dems and Labour have not always been on friendly terms, particularly at the local level where campaigning styles often clash, and in some constituencies and Councils they never will be. Yet at the next General Election (if it takes place in 2024) the Conservatives will have been in power for 14 years, and for all their faults, have arguably played a good electoral strategy and outmanoeuvred Labour and the Lib Dems. If the Tories are to lose their majority, it will require a united front from the opposition to target the voters disillusioned by partygate, failing to see the benefits of Brexit and unlikely to benefit from levelling up.

Labour knows they can’t take on the Tories on their own. They are unlikely to regain seats in Scotland and will face an uphill struggle to win back ‘Red Wall’ seats in traditional Labour heartlands. The Party is also facing huge funding issues, with unions slashing donations, meaning resources are thin on the ground. The Lib Dems on the other hand know they can win traditional ‘Blue Wall’ seats, as demonstrated in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire, to take crucial seats away from the Conservatives. And the Conservatives are worried about the local electoral machine that the Lib Dems have deployed in these by-elections. Making a speech at Conservative Spring Conference last weekend, Party Chairman Oliver Dowden said the Tories are “going to have to fight this one seat by seat… doorstep by doorstep” and that it needs “to be reminding people that the best way to tackle the cost of living locally”.

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The Homes for Ukrainians Scheme does not meet the needs of refugees

Scenes of chaos, disinformation, unhelpfulness, layers of bureaucracy; these are some of my comments after seeing what some of the Ukrainian refuges had to go through while trying to make an appointment with the British Consulate in Warsaw. Some people, who fled the war, travelled in freezing conditions for days, had to make a 12 hour round trip to meet a Home Office official. Unacceptable? Most definitely.

I agree that Britain has a long standing tradition of welcoming refugees. However before we start congratulating the Home Office on their efforts to welcome our Ukrainian friends, it is worth remembering that Poland has already provided home and shelter for 1,916,000 refugees from Ukraine (figures from 17th March) whilst other neighbouring countries have taken 283,000 (Hungary), 229,000 (Slovakia), 491,000. Interestingly, Ireland has taken 6,600 whereas UK so far only 3,000, as of 14th March.

So what awaits Ukrainian refugees, who might want to move to a safe country or, to be more precise, are desperate to settle secure? On Monday, 14th March, the government launched the Home for Ukrainians Scheme. The scheme itself went live on Friday, 18th March.

The setup is quite “interesting”. Although around 44,000 have already signed up to the scheme, the government, in my view, made a wrong decision in terms of how the process works. Essentially, Ukrainian applicants must have named people in the UK willing to sponsor them. Only in the last few days, I had a number of phone calls from residents of Welwyn Garden City, who are really keen to support our Ukrainian friends, however without having any information about the country, culture or any connections with Ukraine, each individual will have to heavily rely on some of the Ukrainians already living in the UK. We are quite lucky in Welwyn Hatfield as we have worked a lot in recent weeks with members of the Ukrainian community, who might be able to “match” individuals in Ukraine, with people in the UK, who are happy to move to Britain.

I might be cynical, however the British government is urging the public to come forward to help as we are in the middle of a global humanitarian crisis. In my view, this clearly demonstrates that the government doesn’t want to provide the adequate infrastructure to support the scheme and it relies on the good will of British people. I wonder whether this is also because of Home Office recent stance and reputation on immigration. I’ve seen first-hand, in my day job, how hard it was for Afghan families to navigate the complexity of the Home Offices internal procedures. An inhumane and impossible task, to say the least.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

The world’s television cameras have shifted to the tragedy of Ukraine. But that does not mean that the problems elsewhere have disappeared. If anything they have worsened as the money and attention has shifted to the danger of a European, East-West war. There are now 89 million displaced people in the world. The greatest number ever in history. Here’s a very brief summary of some of the worst:

Syria celebrated (if that is the correct word) the 11th anniversary of the start of its civil war this week (15 March). It has, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, the dubious distinction of being the centre of the world’s largest displacement of people. The death toll is estimated at 500,000. Six million are internally displaced and five million have fled the country. The biggest number of refugees are in Turkey – 3.7 million. The UNHCR reports that it has only received seven percent of the $465 million it needs for 2022 to provide basic food and shelter. One of the hardest hit areas is Northern Syria where 1.5 million people are living in snow-covered tents spread over 1,489 separate camps. The problems are not confined to the areas where refugees have fled. In about 100 villages in the government-controlled Aleppo region the people are suffering from the absence of drinking water. Possibly the only good news in Syria is that some of Assad’s soldiers are being diverted to Ukraine to help the Russians and the Russians may be unable to provide the assistance to Assad that they have contributed to date.

The Ethiopian war between the government of Abiy Ahmed and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front continues to rage out of the spotlight. So far it is estimated that there are 1.7 million internally displaced people and 500,000 in refugee camps in Sudan. The war has also spread to the Amhar region as the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front attempted to march through that territory to attack Addis Ababa.  Because of a blockade by federal forces no food or medical aid has been delivered to Tigray Province since mid-December. Three-quarters of Tigray’s health facilities have been destroyed. Forget about covid jabs. Both sides are reported to be guilty of rape and murder and have been burning crops, slaughtering livestock and destroying grain stocks. The result is famine. The director-general of the World Health Organisation Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (himself an Ethiopian) has described the situation as “catastrophic.”

The BBC World Affairs Editor John Simpson has described the aftermath of the war in Afghanistan as the “destruction of a nation.” Before the Taliban victory 80 percent of the Afghanistan’s budget was derived from foreign aid – mainly from the US. But a humiliated and angry Washington has frozen $10 billion of Afghanistan’s foreign reserves, $7 billion of which is directly held in the Federal Reserve Bank. There is talk of half of it being released for humanitarian relief with the rest going to the victims of the 9/11 attack. The Afghan people certainly need the relief. Roughly 85 percent of a population of 38.4 million are facing starvation. Unemployment is up. Food Prices are up. The Afghan currency is plummeting. Because they are malnourished, there is a measles epidemic among the children. Covid is rampant. The UN has asked for $4.4 billion for basic foodstuffs. By the beginning of March $1.4 billion has been raised.

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Observations of an expat: crunch meeting

Next Thursday and probably Friday and possibly the weekend – will be one of the most important dates in world history. NATO and EU leaders meeting in Brussels will decide – or not to decide – what to do in Ukraine.

Ukraine will then decide whether to continue fighting and how. Ditto Vladimir Putin.

Australia, Japan and South Korea’s foreign and defence policies will be dramatically affected. China may come off its rickety fence. India and the OPEC countries will have to make big decisions under heavy pressure from both sides of the warring coin.

International markets – stock markets, commodity markets, oil and gas markets—will either plunge or soar at the news from Brussels.

The world will wait to hear whether we have moved a giant step closer to nuclear Armageddon or inched away from it.

The variations are endless and each has known and unknown consequences. With the threat of nuclear war hanging over every decision, the room for error is nil.

If Vladimir Putin did not possess the world’s largest nuclear arsenal then the answer would be relatively easy: Attack and drive the Russians out. But he does, and he has threatened to use them. The question then arises: Is Putin Bluffing?

More to the point, can the Western Alliance afford to risk the possibility that he is not bluffing?

If he is not bluffing then there is an accepted three-stage nuclear escalation with a pause after the first two to give either side an opportunity to back off: battlefield nuclear weapons which would probably be confined to Ukraine; Intermediate-range nuclear weapons which would be confined to European targets and, then of course, strategic systems which would involve hitting the US.

Putin, however, refuses to play by the rules. He may go straight for American targets, which is why Joe Biden will block anything that could lead to a nuclear exchange.

So the option of committing NATO troops to Ukraine is off the table because Putin has threatened to respond with the nuclear option. That is, it is off the table for now.

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Liberal Democrat Technology Project: Update

This is (hopefully) the first of many regular updates on the project. We’re aiming to update every two weeks.

We’ll also be posting more regular updates on our newly unveiled Technology Blog which is hugely exciting – because it’s been built on our brand new website platform, Fleet.

Fleet is intended to replace both Nationbuilder and Prater Raines FOCI for the party.

We’re building it in collaboration with the team at Prater Raines and it’s based on the open source Typo3 framework – which is widely used by organisations with a federated structure (like us!). We’ll also be heavily customising the default version of Typo3 to make it easier for Liberal Democrats to use.

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We must adopt a Jenkinsite approach to support trans people

Trans rights are human rights, trans men are men, trans women are women and nothing will ever change this.

It is becoming clear, however, that a minority of our citizens and even representatives in our parliament, Trans Exclusionary Radical Feminists – or “TERFs” – do not feel the same way, choosing to see trans people as threats, and choose to attack and undermine them simply for existing, which I cannot help but regard as foolish and wrong. Trans women are women and trans men are men; how can they be threats when all they’re doing is living their lives, no different from you and me?

TERFs refuse to acknowledge that trans people are who they say they are, and in doing so undermine the feminist movement – the cause they claim to defend – but in reality are adding to the oppression and discrimination faced under the patriarchy. It is a reminder of how far we’ve strayed from the “civilised society” – tolerance, openness, inclusivity, the strengthening of individual rights and the abolishment of illiberal laws that prohibit people from living their lives to the fullest extent – the idea that liberal icon Roy Jenkins championed as Home Secretary under then-Labour Party leader Harold Wilson. If it weren’t for him, Britain would not have decriminalised homosexuality, removed theatre censorship, legalised abortions, banned racial discrimination in work, to name but a few of Jenkins’ accomplishments.

But more importantly than what he achieved, is the ideology he brought to the role of Home Secretary: social libertarianism. While many will read that, and think of the likes of Friedrich Hayek, free markets were not the aim of Jenkins’ reforms. But instead, so long as a person brings no harm to themselves or others and follows the rule of law, then who are we to say their identity is invalid? TERFs disagree with this sentiment, actively limiting women’s rights and supporting the strengthening of the patriarchy through harsher policing and state intervention in the lives of individuals.

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How to help Ukraine, Part 3 – harness the children

I am proud to report that the Scout Group of which I am the Akela – First Wandsworth – raised £1,500 for the International Red Cross in just two hours.

A group of 8 to10-year-olds baked cookies, biscuits and cakes. Decorated them with the blue and yellow colours of Ukraine. Set up a table on Wandsworth Common. Raised the Ukrainian flag and produced homemade collecting tins and mobile phones for credit card payments.

They were mobbed. They were also enthused and motivated to do more. And they will.

The young people of this country are one of its most under-utilised charity resources. They may not have the cash but they have the energy and the smiling cherubic faces that pull the heart-strings of the Scroogest of Scrooges.

Our children want to help. They do not want to be talked down to or patronise. They want to do more than play computer games. They want to understand and be part of the world. Point them in the right direction. They will take off like willing rockets and grow to better persons because of it.

Of course, use discretion. They very young should continue be encouraged to continue to be protected from the real world by parents, grandparents and teachers. But when they start to read and listen to the news and talk among themselves they demand to be told more. And when there is a war they want to do more. Let them.

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At what point would you have walked out?

There’s an event known as “Not the leader’s speech”, which seems to have gained semi official status in the party. While the leader gives their speech at the end of conference, a group of members meet up at a nearby pub. They follow the coverage of the speech on social media, and discuss at what point they would have walked out, if they had been there.

I’ve never attended “Not the leader’s speech”, but I do have a good deal of admiration for the irreverent approach of this group of members.

I don’t think I have ever actually “walked out of” a speech, in a Lib Dem context or otherwise. But there have been many occasions when I have sat through a speech, but could identify the moment at which perhaps I *should* have walked out. I did not actually attend Spring Conference this year, either in person or online, but I have watched the video of Ed Davey’s speech, and read through the text, several times. I certainly know the moment at which I would have felt like walking out.

Ed began by speaking very movingly of the suffering of the people of Ukraine, and of their heroism. Naturally, I have no criticism of this part of the speech, even though (and I hesitated about whether to write this), I did find myself thinking that I would have preferred to have heard these words spoken by someone who had not previously said publicly that he would be willing to personally “press the nuclear button”.

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Federal Board reform – structures are nothing without good people

I am here to support option 3, because I think it is the least worst option of those offered. It has guaranteed local government representation. Councillors need a louder voice in the party. They are used to doing scrutiny, and will be able to use that to our benefit.

My lack of enthusiasm is not due to being resistant to change. It’s that this is not the change I am looking for.

Consider how professionally we approach campaigning – the training, the use of data, the effort that we put in. Consider how diligently we approach our policies – the use of evidence, the attention to detail. And then look at how we approach running the party – largely as an inconvenience that gets in the way of the campaigning and policy-making. But all the campaigns and policy in the world are useless without a party that can deliver them.

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Dunblane, a lesson we cannot forget

Twenty-six years ago, Thomas Hamilton shot and killed sixteen primary school kids and their teacher, before turning the gun on himself. The weekend just past was the 26th anniversary of that dark day. I wasn’t even two years old when it happened, growing up in a house just up the hill from the school.

I may have been a toddler, but the news footage I’ve seen since – of my frightened parents haunts me to this day. I hope no one ever needs to endure what they did that day. Going into a school not knowing if their own child was dead or alive. We were one of the lucky ones, my brother and sister were unharmed.

The community response to such tragedy is something we as Liberal Democrats cannot forget. A local community, in the face of such horror, came together and made a difference.

The Snowdrop Campaign was led by the people of Dunblane. Their petition gathered 750,000 signatures calling on the government to change gun control laws – this was long before the days of Change.Org. A community came together. They changed the law for the better. A town of less than 10,000 people.

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Liberal Democrats need to be prepared for more than a change of government at the next election

Yesterday, Stephen wrote of the damage to our politics caused by the current Conservative administration. Today, he looks at how these might be repaired…

Boris Johnson has damaged Britain: its cohesion, its standing, its reputation, its economy and its constitution. But what is increasingly apparent is that he has also damaged his own Conservative party. When the time comes to remove them from office, an electoral strategy will be insufficient; there needs to be a positive plan for long-term progressive politics that both fixes the mess left by Johnson’s opportunistic populism and makes sure no future Prime Minister can act with such gross impunity. And that represents the singular opportunity for Liberal Democrats today.

The North Shropshire by-election, which smashed the Blue Wall, demonstrated the role and reach Liberal Democrats have when it comes to ejecting this government from office. But that is only the beginning. It must be the springboard into a decade of permanent progressive reform.

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Dodds: Wales should be Green Battery of Western Europe

The Welsh and UK Governments should work together to turn Wales into a renewable powerhouse that could help allies in Europe reduce their dependence on Russian oil and gas imports. Projects under construction or in the planning phase should be immediately fast-tracked. This will be a win-win not only helping to reduce UK and EU dependence on Russian hydrocarbons but boosting Welsh jobs and helping save the environment.

Wales currently exports over twice the amount of power it consumes and around 48% of electricity generation in Wales already comes from renewables. But with vast reserves of tidal power in the North and South of Wales, wind power in the West, the potential for Green Hydrogen facilities in former mining areas and hydropower potential throughout the country; Wales has some of the greatest potential for a green economy in all of Europe.

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Johnson’s gross unsuitability for office must herald a decade of genuine progressive politics

Boris Johnson has damaged Britain: its cohesion, its standing, its reputation, its economy and its constitution. But what is increasingly apparent is that he has also damaged his own Conservative party. When the time comes to remove them from office, an electoral strategy will be insufficient; there needs to be a positive plan for long-term progressive politics that both fixes the mess left by Johnson’s opportunistic populism and makes sure no future Prime Minister can act with such gross impunity. And that represents the singular opportunity for Liberal Democrats today.

When he led the Tories to an 80 seat majority in 2019, exploiting the new Brexit voter cleavage, and taking red wall seats in the Midlands and the North, Johnson seemed electorally predominant and largely Teflon. The usual rules of politics didn’t seem to apply and that, of course, is how Johnson likes it. But for the Conservatives that victory came at a cost. For starters, they accepted Johnson as their leader because he could win votes. Most Tory MPs, it seems, view Johnson no differently from the rest of us – that he is a self-interested opportunist, with a casual relationship with the truth and who is unsuitable for office. And that explains a victory built on easy slogans, misinformation and untruths. To get there, the Conservatives also ejected a raft of sensible and experienced politicians from the parliamentary party: the likes of Dominic Grieve, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening. This explains why now there is a dearth of serious alternative PMs on the Tory benches and how the party is captive of its own reactionary right. There is a clear message that there is no place in the modern Conservative Party for people like Anna Soubry or Rory Stewart. That is limiting.

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Hobhouse: Swift justice for victims and offenders needed

A robust and well-functioning justice system is a foundation stone of society.

But in England and Wales we are facing a soaring backlog of court cases.

The backlog of outstanding criminal cases in the Crown Court stood at 59,928 at the end of September. 13,202 cases in the backlog are more than a year old.

A Crown Court case now takes an average of 23 months from offence to completion.

Court backlogs have caused the number of people being held in prison on remand to rise by 48% since 2018.

The independent Chief Inspectors of Constabulary, the Crown Prosecution Service, Prisons, and Probation have identified the “unprecedented and very serious court backlogs” as “the greatest threat to the proper operation of the criminal justice system”.

Long delays increase the number of people held in prison on remand, putting even more strain on overcrowded prisons. It can also lead to victims and witnesses withdrawing, making it more likely that the case collapses.

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Tom Arms’ World Review – 13 March 2022

Back in the halcyon days of the Cold War both sides accepted a nuclear strategy called Mutual Assured Destruction which was gifted with the appropriate acronym of MAD. It had a simple basis: Both sides (the West and the Soviet Union) possessed enough nuclear weapons to wipe out the other (and the rest of the world). Therefore it was in neither’s interest to use their nuclear weapons. As mad as MAD sounds, it worked. No nuclear weapons by either the US or Soviet Union, or Britain or France were used throughout the Cold War. There were some almost incidents, such as the Cuban Missile Crisis, but Armageddon was always averted as a MAD sanity prevailed. However, the problem with MAD is that it is built on the premise that the leadership in Washington and Moscow is led by rational people. Now the people in the West are seriously concerned because of doubts about Putin’s sanity. Three years ago there was concern about the mental stability of Donald Trump who famously said: “I can’t understand. If we have nuclear weapons, why don’t we use them? It appears that there is a growing need for a failsafe chain of command among the nuclear powers to avoid the problems of hubris-driven mental instability leading to a disastrous button-pressing incident.

Russia, according to the White House, has prepared chemical weapons for use in Ukraine. Moscow claims that Ukraine has done the same. Ridiculous say both Washington and Kyiv. If the latter are to be believed then Putin is preparing a false flag operation whereby Russians claim they have been attacked by Ukrainian chemical weapons and respond with chemical guns blazing. But what chemical weapons? The Soviets at one time had the world’s largest biological and chemical weapons store. In fact, an estimated 65,000 were employed in the deadly business. Then along claim the 1973 Biological Weapons Convention and the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention which banned these instruments of mass destruction. At the time, Russia had nearly 40,000 tons of chemical weapons. In 2017 the Organisation for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) reported that Moscow had destroyed its “declared” weapons stock. Then came the 2018 Novichok attack in Salisbury on former GRU agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter followed by a similar murderous attempt in 2020 on Russian dissident Alexei Navalny. In 2021, the CIA reported that Russia was back in the chemical weapons business, or, it had never really left it. This week’s White House announcement about the spectre of Russian chemical weapons leaves an important unanswered question: Is Russian use of chemical weapons a red line for NATO? If not, why mention it?

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Observations of an expat – Ukraine: where are we going?

Putin has to go. But when and how? What will be the result of his Ukrainian failure in Russia and the rest of the world? How much damage will be inflicted on Ukraine and almost every other country before he is thrown out of the Kremlin?

Working on the assumption that the West will win (any other scenario is unthinkable), what will be the short, medium and long-term repercussions for the world?

The immediate consequence is Hell for Ukraine, pariah status and economic disaster for Russia and economic pain for everyone else.

Vladimir Putin expected Ukraine to fall into his lap like an over-ripe Slavic apple. It didn’t happen. They are fighting back with a fierce patriotism which has shocked the Russian president and won global admiration.

Most of the world has rallied around with the toughest sanctions since World War Two and tons of military hardware – but no troops and no planes for a no fly zone. Ukraine is not a member of NATO and the alliance is terrified of Ukraine escalating into World War III if NATO and Russian troops directly face each other.

So Ukraine is fighting on behalf of a Western Alliance of which it is not officially a member.  It is fighting a war which is the clearest cut case of good against evil since 1939. It is a war which has been 70 years in the waiting.

In the short term Volodomyr Zelensky’s brave army will probably lose militarily. The Russian army is too big. As I write this blog the tank column that has been inching its way towards Kyiv is fanning out through the surrounding forests for a major bombardment of the Ukrainian capital and Russian planes are increasing their attacks.

But a conventional Russian military victory would be a political disaster for Putin. His invasion has created a sense of Ukrainian nationalism which would lead to an insurgency war which would more than equal Moscow’s ten-year Afghan calamity, which in turn led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. The economic war would continue and Russia would be forced to retreat behind an unsustainable Soviet-style Iron Curtain.

There are reports that Putin has seen the writing on the wall. He has allegedly fired eight generals and turned on his trusted FSB to accuse them of providing him with faulty intelligence which led to  his invasion order. The FSB is said to have responded by accusing their leader of creating a climate of fear so that reports were doctored to justify his political wish list rather than presenting evidential facts.

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Reforming the UK’s electoral system: The view from Labour

At the time of writing, Ukraine dominates the news, a shocking reminder of how precious and precarious democracy is. As Tom Brake of Unlock Democracy has written, “Whilst we feel enormous sadness at a moment like this, it also reminds us why the work we do matters.

The political battle to reform the UK’s electoral system is of course incomparable to the very real battle faced by the people in Ukraine. But the terrible events of recent days should motivate us all to defend and fight to extend with renewed vigour democracy in the UK. That aim is the essence of the Labour for a New Democracy (L4ND) campaign.

There are many well-evidenced reasons why, for Labour supporters, it makes sense to do away with First Past The Post (FPTP). In 19 of the last 20 elections the majority of the popular vote has been for parties to the left of the Conservatives yet we have had Conservative governments for two thirds of that time. The relative inefficiency of Labour’s vote means it repeatedly fails to do quite well enough to get over the line in many seats whilst in others its votes pile up to no effect. 34 of the 35 ‘safest’ seats in the UK are held by Labour.

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Why Conference should vote against the Board Reform proposals

Over the last few weeks virtually everyone who might be expected to carry weight with Conference delegates has been getting calls from the Party President asking them to come out in favour of the reforms to structure of the Federal Board. There has been a string of LDV and social media articles explaining why we need a smaller board. I imagine on Friday evening we will see a string of Party dignitaries speaking in favour of the reform proposals.

There has been a fair amount of circularity in the argument put forward to support this. Mark Pack having convinced the Thornhill review team that the size of the Board was the major contributor to the General Election debacle, now quotes the same report as evidence. But re-reading the report its clear that the disaster had little to do with the Board and much more to do with an over centralised campaign based around the Leader and a small team of advisers combined with an unwillingness to listen or challenge.

People may be surprised to know that the Board didn’t (and shouldn’t) get involved with the detail of our GE campaigns. That is constitutionally the role of the Federal Campaigns and Elections committee – though it’s not clear whether they were allowed to exercise that role in 2019.

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Amendments for Conference and Ukraine

The Federal Conference Committee met on Saturday, 5 March to review amendments, emergency motions, and questions to reports submitted for next week’s Spring Conference.

Spring Conference 2022 will again be held online via the Hopin platform, and we would like to thank the Conference Team and the wider team at HQ for making it happen.

As mentioned via email and in an earlier post on Lib Dem Voice and the Federal Conference Facebook Page the FCC has agreed to allow a later deadline on emergency motions on the topic of Ukraine, following the Russian invasion and the evolving situation. You can still submit an emergency motion on Ukraine here.

We are also delighted to announce that there will be a fringe session held on Sunday, 13 March from 17:40 to 18:45 with Kira Rudyk, Leader of the Holos Party in Ukraine (a sister party of the Lib Dems), who will be joined by Layla Moran MP, answering questions from members on her experience and the current situation in Ukraine. I do encourage you to attend this exciting fringe event.

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We should boycott the 2022 Qatar World Cup

Embed from Getty Images

A Pakistani man working on the roads in the heat, felled by heatstroke. A disorganised at best response to his emergency, with no medical treatment. His body hauled into the back of a truck, dead like so many other migrant workers in his position. That was what my mum saw one day when she lived in Qatar and unfortunately, that man’s story is not unique. Just like many migrant workers in Qatar before him and many since.

Since that day, the World Cup has been awarded to Qatar, and last year the Guardian has reported the deaths of 6,500 workers in Qatar, though other reports put this number even higher. The stadiums they have died to build will be abandoned after the tournament, leaving only a legacy of death and sportswashing from the Qatari government.

This is not just a World Cup with a morally questionable regime in charge – nothing new for FIFA. This is not just a World Cup with a questionable process of selecting the host country by an organisation with a history of corruption. This is a World Cup quite literally built on the death of migrant workers in Qatar.

I love football, and I’ve never enjoyed watching England as much as I did in 2021, with young, exciting footballers taking England through to the Euros finals. The players and Gareth Southgate did more than just win matches –  they gained some respect back for the sport, as they acted with dignity and class.

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The Nature of Public Debate – a win for Conference

Last conference, I moved a vote to reference back the paper on the Nature of Public Debate. Referring a paper back – a procedural move that returns the paper to a federal committee for six months’ reworking before the next conference – is designed for cases where conference believes that the broad approach of the paper is correct but that there are notable flaws with the detail that need reworking. That was the case here, with a number of issues around the thorny issue of regulating speech on the internet that needed working out or tightening up. In my speech last autumn to move the referral back, I said that I’d be happy to sit down with the working group to iron out some of those details – that’s what I did, and members voting for that reference back has led to a far more robust paper.

The changes made to the paper are in the detail, but online regulation is a world where details can have immense ramifications. A more effective definition of algorithms has ensured that proposals to give people more control of their content viewing online are workable and effective, where the paper’s previous versions would have been impossible to enforce and risked weakening our reputation as a party able to make effective proposals on tech issues. We also clarified language on online content provision and built more explicit alignment with EU regulations into the proposals, ensuring we’re better in step with the front line globally on these issues.

We also worked to improve the focus on who the proposals are aimed at. We tightened up the definition of social media in the paper to ensure our proposals only hit companies big enough to account for them – a looser definition risked new regulations hitting smaller companies and communities, stifling competition and hurting diversity of spaces online. We clarified much more effectively, too, that people’s speech rights in online communities of any size exist with regard to the rules of those communities, not an external legal precept. As liberals, we should never want to force companies or communities to host, for example, racist speech, and we shouldn’t want it to be possible for the wealthy to threaten smaller outlets with legal battles for moderating or refusing to publish their views. The changes to the paper protect smaller forums and communities from the full scope of the new regulations, better protecting free speech and our ability to build a diverse array of different spaces for which varying rules on members’ speech will be appropriate.

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I’d rather be delivering leaflets

If you know me at all, you’ll know I never wanted to be on the Federal Board. But…

In the wake of 2019 I dusted myself down from my Westminster campaign in Hazel Grove (you would be very welcome to get involved this time!) and decided that enough was enough. We need to do more winning.

Dorothy Thornhill agreed with me, and I got stuck-in to reform efforts by taking on the role of Chair of the Federal Communications and Elections Committee (and therefore a member of the Board).

We’ve come some way in the last few years, but it’s …

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Campaigning during a global conflict

As I am writing this article, there are two months until the next local elections. Time has flown by. I started campaigning quite early, in October 2021 and so far, I really enjoyed the experience. Feedback? Quite positive!

It is not always easy to predict the final results of any elections, however I often wonder what the key ingredients of winning a campaign are? I do believe that making your face known to local residents is crucial. The human connection and authenticity are one of the elements to win a seat. During months of campaigning, I already have countless examples of people who said to me; “I can see your passion and commitment to the political process”. “Your dedication comes clearly across” or “I’ve read your introduction letter and you have my vote”. The second comment was made only a week ago. In my letter to residents, I simply tried to be myself. I told voters about my background, my journey, and involvement in a number of other projects and activities as well as reasons for standing. As I said before, being open, honest and simple resonate with people. I don’t like negative campaigning and therefore I ensured that my letter states my plans and ambitions for the area.

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Tom Arms World Review: Let’s start with Belarus

Let’s start with Belarus, key launch pad for the Russian invasion and now virtually no longer an independent state. Of course, it has been going that way for a few years and when the West imposed sanctions after the rigged 2020 elections dictator Alexander Lukashenko sold out to Putin’s rouble in order to stay financially afloat. However, the Belarussian leader retained a fig leaf of independence by continuing to refuse to allow Russian troops to be based on his country’s soil. Well, that has now ended with Belarus becoming a major launch pad for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On top of that, a constitutional referendum last weekend went a step further and approved a measure that allows Russian nuclear weapons to be based in Belarus. The country’s economic, defence and foreign policy is now dictated from Moscow and 80,150 square miles has been added to the Russian empire.

The European political chairs continue to rearrange themselves across the geopolitical map. Sweden has been neutral for 200 years. In the wake of the Russian invasion, opinion polls are for the first time shifting in favour of ending this long-held position and joining NATO. The powerful Social Democrats, however, remain opposed. Finland has been neutral since 1945. It has a 780-mile long border with Russia and a long history of conflicts with Moscow. Its government is on the cusp of announcing a referendum on NATO membership. The latest opinion polls show 53 percent for and 28 percent against. Both the Swedes and the Finns have been members of the EU since 1995 and have been in the forefront in supplying aid to Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has warned the two countries that joining the Western military alliance would result in “detrimental and military consequences.”

There is movement too in Eastern Europe where Putin’s three targets – Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia – have all issued statements saying they want to join the economic arm of the Western Alliance – the European Union. This would mean crossing another one of Putin’s oft-stated red lines. But membership involves more than just a “please may I join your club” request. The process usually takes years while the “candidate” countries adapt laws and regulations to Brussels requirements and jump through hoops related to democratic structures, human rights, an independent judiciary and anti-corruption measures. Ukraine’s request came during President Volodomyr Zelensky’s speech this week to the European Parliament. In a tidal wave of emotional support a raft of MEPs called for plucky Ukraine to be put on the fast track to membership. A coterie of French-led MPs, however, pointed out that – according to Transparency International – Ukraine is the second most corrupt country in Europe (Russia is the first). Moldova was spurred into action by a Lukashenko press conference in which the Belarussian dictator displayed a map which showed Moldova as the next target for invasion. There are already 1,500 Russian troops in Moldova based in the breakaway Russian-speaking Transnistra Province. As for Georgia, they have been expecting a full-scale Russian takeover since Putin’s tanks grabbed South Ossetia and Abkhazia in 2008.

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How to help Ukraine Part 2 – Knit a Jumper

You can do it. You can hit the Russians where it hurts—in their pockets. Russian oil and gas is still flowing westward. This is because a strict embargo would hurt Europeans as much, if not more, than the Russians. Europe has to keep producing and trading to become Ukraine’s arsenal for democracy.

So the East-West energy trade has been compartmentalised—for now, and the money being paid for Russian fossil fuels is being used to buy artillery shells that kill Ukrainians.

The continued energy trade smacks of political and economic common sense. But that does not mean that individuals—YOU—cannot use your own initiative to reduce Russia’s income from oil and gas sales.

Cut your energy consumption. Wear an extra sweater and maybe even a heavy woollen scarf indoors. Ask Aunt Agatha to quickly knit you a jumper in the bright sky blue and sunshine yellow colours of the Ukrainian flag. Then put it on and turn down the thermostat.

But there is more. Stop baths. Take showers. Even better, shower with a friend or reduce the number of your showers and increase your usage of deodorant. You can be certain that a million-plus Ukrainian refugees are not showering twice a day, and they won’t be seeing a bath tub for the foreseeable future.

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The courage of Ukrainians should truly humble us

The Ukrainian border guards on Snake Island had a while to think about their response to a Russian warship demanding that they lay down their arms.

Several years in fact.

There can’t be much to do at such a border post, apart from contemplate your potential enemy and the day of reckoning that might finally arrive.

So their response of “Russian warship – go to hell”, or alternatively fruity translation, was spoken in full awareness of the potential consequences.

We’ve seen similar awe-inspiring bravery and defiance from President Zelenskyy to ordinary pensioners berating Russian soldiers.

And what for?

What are they fighting for?

A large parcel of land where they and their ancestors have lived.

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