Category Archives: Op-eds

Boris Johnson – you’re fired

Boris Johnson broke the law.

He partied while repeatedly telling us the importance of “staying home, protecting the NHS and saving lives”. I have no issues with the laws of the time, as they were necessary to protect the immuno-compromised. What I have an issue with, however, is how we were lied to by our Prime Minister.

He had the gall to stand in parliament and deliver an “unreserved apology”, encouraging us to let the government “get on with the job”. Correct me if I’m wrong, the person giving the apology doesn’t decide when to move on, but rather the recipient of the apology does. I’m sure I speak for the majority when I say, we are not ready to move on.

Our nation’s public office holders are expected to meet the 7 standards of the Nolan Principles:

  • Selflessness
  • Integrity
  • Objectivity
  • Honesty
  • Leadership
  • Openness
  • Accountability

I honestly cannot give an example of how Boris Johnson has met a single standard.

He is the first sitting Prime Minister to break the law. He has knowingly misled parliament regarding his attendance of the aforementioned Downing Street parties. He frequently uses the Russian Invasion of Ukraine to deflect taking responsibility for his unlawful actions. When the country needed strong leadership, he fled into hiding. He was happy for civil servants to take the fall for his unlawful actions. His ties to the Kremlin, whether it be through his friendship with Baron Lebedev of Siberia or his attendance at Lebedev’s party in Italy, make him a security threat.

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Moran: Backsliding democracies from the USA to Ukraine

At the end of last year, the United States of America was added to the International IDEA’s annual list of “backsliding” democracies for the first time, pointing to a “visible deterioration” it said began in 2019.

Remarkably, the number of backsliding democracies has doubled in the past decade with more than a quarter of people alive today now living in one of these democracies. What’s more, in addition to “established democracies” such as the US, this list of backsliding democracies includes EU member states Hungary, Poland and Slovenia.

And it gets worse.

According to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance the number of people living in fragile democracies rises to more than two in three with the addition of authoritarian or “hybrid” regimes.

To put it more succinctly, democracy is in retreat.

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Musk bids for Twitter but wealth doesn’t create wisdom

Elon Musk, who according to Forbes and other sources is the richest person in the world, has made a $43 billion bid for Twitter. Musk is very, very rich. He is also an ideas man and manages to get clever people around him.

Space X, more than any other company, has brought the world into an era of space where businesses rather than governments lead in space. Space X is launching satellites and humans into orbit and beyond. Tesla is building more than 300,000 electric cars a quarter in the company’s largely automated factories. The Boring Company has several projects delivered or underway.

But does that make Musk fit to own Twitter? And are his proposals to make Twitter a bastion of free speech where anything goes, truth or lies providing it does not break local laws, tenable in a social media universe where tweets are so influential?

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The importance of acknowledging mental health

In November 2020, I had a breakdown.

I was a postgraduate student when the news broke that Covid-19 was worse than we thought, resulting in all classes going online. We all thought it would last a few weeks, have a few awkward Zoom interactions, then it would all be over and remembered as a strange but interesting time. Fast forward 2 years, and it’s only now the class of 2020 is finally having its graduation ceremony. Exams had finished come June 2020, which meant from July to September, all postgraduate students were now focusing on dissertations. I was looking forward to it, as I had aspirations to go further with my education and pursue a PhD, with the master’s dissertation being my opportunity to build the foundations of my future thesis.

In our first meeting, my supervisor informed me that I had spent too long researching. Stress increased, along with anxiety. As time went on, my chest was feeling heavier, I was having headaches and I was snapping at my family and friends whenever they asked about the dissertation. I was feeling terrible but told myself it was fine, “all part of uni”. I eventually wrote up my research, sent it off and awaited my next meeting.

“Is this just your plan?”. I was so embarrassed, I wish I said: “No, this is just over a month’s work that I worked hard on, and I’d appreciate it if you recognised that”. But instead, I nodded my head and agreed that my work wasn’t good enough. I let slip my mental health had been getting bad; “It’s natural to feel like that with the dissertation, get your head down and do your best”. The meeting ended, and I was feeling more lost than ever. I had under a month to restructure my dissertation, write it up, analyse, send it off and pray I get a pass. I’d started comfort-eating a lot, I wasn’t sleeping and I was crying most days – somehow still convincing myself this was all fine.

What followed was more meetings and more bad news, which all culminated in an extension on my dissertation from the university. I remember describing how I was feeling to my mum at this point: “There are two sides fighting in my head, and both are telling me I’m doing terrible”. She was rightly concerned, as was the rest of my family; just not me, who was still convinced I could power through. In the last meeting, I had with my supervisor, I received the worst possible feedback; “you’ll most likely fail”. Just typing that out makes me stop and relive the experience of crying on camera, while my supervisor tried desperately to glean something positive from my work.

And then, it happened. I had my breakdown.

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New policy group on Skills and Training

Britain has a skills crisis. For too long, successive governments have failed to invest enough in skills and training, assuming business will pick up the slack. Despite many excellent businesses investing extensively in their people this hasn’t been enough. We need a new, liberal and fair approach to skills and training, which provides opportunities to everyone, which is why the Federal Policy Committee has commissioned a new working group to look at this issue.

Progressive policies on skills and training give us the chance to position ourselves as the natural party of business, a position vacated by the Tories and their shambolic approach to Europe and international trade.

We want to develop a new approach to skills and training. In particular, we want to look at how we develop policies on vocational education, further education, adult education and lifelong learning and careers advice. As a party, the Liberal Democrats are often perceived as the party of the university-educated middle class, it’s time to change that through new and innovative policies. We will also need to look at how we reskill our country as new technologies replace old jobs and create new ones.

It has also become apparent following the UK’s departure from the EU and the ever more draconian immigration policy of this government that as a country we had relied on the expertise of immigrants to fill too many roles, they were contributing far more to our country than even we realised. We will need to look at how we plug the post-Brexit skills gap, not because we want fewer people moving here, but because we need to be more self-reliant.

We’d especially encourage applicants from ethnic minority backgrounds, women, the disabled, younger people and the less well off. Too often, their opportunities and potential are held back by approaches that are made by and still cater to a middle-class ‘nuclear family’ and policies are decided without their voices being heard. They are also in danger of being disproportionately impacted by new technologies.

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Priti Patel’s new asylum strategy – wrong in every sense

The announcement that the Home Secretary has finalised an “economic development and migration agreement” with Rwanda, whilst not necessarily a surprise, is a reminder that Government policy is now to make the seeking of asylum in the United Kingdom as difficult and unpleasant as possible, regardless of the cost.

The idea is that asylum seekers will be initially processed at a base in the United Kingdom, before being flown to Rwanda and “warehoused” there whilst their application is considered. That is, perhaps not everybody, as The Times is suggesting that only male asylum seekers would be sent. But the devil is not in the details.

There is a precedent for such treatment – the Australian Government took a similar approach, offshoring asylum processing to Nauru and Christmas Island. It was a disaster, with horror stories of abuse, suicide and, at the end of it all, most applicants were approved. The cost? £5,277… per day.

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Our nation should hang its head in shame over Rwanda refugee plans

I cannot believe the depths to which our nation has sunk. We have a government led by a liar and by ministers and civil servants being handed out fines for breaking their own laws. We have a government that slaps tax increases on struggling people and refuses to raise benefits to the level people need to survive. Food banks, once few and far between, and now ubiquitous and essential for good health and survival of many families. And we have a government that is planning to fly migrants and asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing.

It is almost impossible to see any humanitarianism in this government’s attitude towards refugees crossing the channel to a country they dream of as a safe haven. Instead of tackling the people smugglers who have been responsible for hundreds of deaths in the same way we tackle terrorists, our government is taking aim at vulnerable people desperate for new lives.

Priti Patel is in Kigali, the capital of Rwanda, today to sign the “migration and economic development partnership” this morning. This is low moment for our country that I have always believed had humanity in its national heart.

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Wallace: Who’s patriotic now?

Liberals are too nice to go for our opponents in the way they go for us. But now is the time to throw back at them the insult that they are patriotic and we are not. Who is more committed to this country: those who work in its public services, educate its young and hold together its local communities, or those who play around with the financial markets, hold their wealth as far as they can offshore, own properties in other countries and share in the privileges of international elites?

One of the most effective epithets in the Brexit camp’s dismissal of ‘Remoaners’ was the claim that those who continued to argue for a close relationship with our neighbours were ‘people from anywhere’, betraying the honest loyalties of the good ‘people from somewhere’ who preferred England and its eccentricities to foreign ties. Theresa May used the argument repeatedly. It comes straight from the right-wing populist playbook: blaming the ‘rootless cosmopolitanism’ of the intellectual classes for popular discontent, thus distracting attention from the activities – and great wealth – of financial elites, and the negative impact on ordinary citizens of private equity takeovers and the tax avoidance.

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Mark Pack’s April report: Good luck to all our candidates and agents

Thank you

With nominations now closed for the May elections, many thanks to everyone who has put in so much work to getting candidates approved, selected and safely nominated. From a first look at the numbers, we’ve seen a good increase in our candidate totals in Scotland and Wales, with the numbers broadly the same in England compared with last time.

I’m sure there will be lessons we can learn and share more widely from those areas that have had the most success increasing their candidate numbers, but that can wait until after the elections. For the moment, thank you – and best of luck to all the candidates nominated, their agents and their campaign managers.

Our plans for a fair deal

One of the oddities of how the media covers local elections is that ‘campaign launches’ for the national media usually take place weeks (if not months and years!) after our campaigning has actually started.

Which is why the start of April saw a big round of national media coverage for a Liberal Democrat local election campaign launch in England. Our national media push is deliberately focusing on the issues our research shows work best for setting the mood music against which local campaigns can do their magic at the grassroots. Which means a particular emphasis on the dumping of sewage in our rivers, ways to improve our ambulance service and help with the cost of living crisis.

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Davey: Recall parliament after PM & Chancellor fined for partygate

Boris Johnson was enjoying a boost among Conservatives this week, until today, after his snap visit to Ukraine. No matter that he looked out of place in a suit and tie alongside President Zelensky and the escort in fatigues. The Conservatives like a good war and a leader that shows resolve in a time of crisis. But Johnson looked like he was going to a party not walking in a war zone.

Rishi Sunak on the other hand, has had a lousy week. The row over his green card and his wife’s non dom tax status has failed to die down. As a tax hiking chancellor, he is getting the flack for a system that is to his advantage while he has given many low income families a choice between food, fuel and warmth. There are press briefings that he will step down and leave politics for California.

Partygate now seems a minor issue and that is the emerging defence by Conservatives this afternoon who are arguing the prime minister should not be deposed and must not resign because of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. Sir Roger Gale MP, a long time critic of Boris Johnson, told BBC R4 PM this evening now is the time.

That is not the view of opposition parties. Ed Davey has called for parliament to be recalled to discuss the crisis that is engulfing the a government that is already engulfed by its own sleaze and disregard for those having to choose between fuel and the food bank.

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Review: Revolution of our Times

Revolution of our Times is a truly powerful film screened in London in March 2022.

The film shows real footage of more than one million people on the streets of Hong Kong protesting the introduction of the Extradition Bill about to be enacted against Hong Kong citizens whose only act was to upset the Chinese Communist State.

The spontaneous protest demonstrated how unpopular the proposed extradition law to mainland China was.  Witnessed by the arbitrary arrest of three booksellers in Hong Kong who dared to sell banned publications.  The people now called for the repeal of the extradition law as a breach of the Sino British Joint Declaration which guaranteed Hongkongers their freedoms for another 50 years from the handover of HK to China in 1997.

The crowds consisted of men, women, students as well as ordinary workers.  There were peaceful ranks of protesters with banners and umbrellas just using their voice.  As the numbers of protesters swelled, the main downtown districts of HK were filled with their chants for their five key demands: to withdraw the extradition bill; to stop labelling protesters as “rioters”; to drop charges against protesters; to conduct an independent inquiry into police behaviour; to implement genuine universal suffrage for both the Legislative Council and the Chief Executive.

What started as peaceful protest soon became a standoff between the people and the police.  More and more strong armed tactics were being used including the use of teargas, rubber bullets, water canon and eventually live fire.  People were incensed and they went directly to the LegCo building where they broke into the main chamber causing damage to property.

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The LDV quick guide to non-domicile

So, Akshata Murty is non-domiciled for tax purposes. What does this mean, and how does it work? Luckily, the information is readily at hand…

Domicile is obtained in one of three ways;

  • origin – normally, your place of birth
  • dependence – where the law ascribes domicile to an individual because of that individual’s lack of legal capacity and legal dependence upon another person
  • choice – acquired by physical presence in another territory and the intention to remain in that territory permanently or indefinitely

So, in Akshata Murty’s case, her domicile of origin is India and, unless she indicates her wish to be domiciled in the United Kingdom, she can retain her status as being domiciled in India for the time being, subject to any finding that, by dint of the decisions she takes, she is deemed to have elected for a different domicile by choice.

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Tom Arms’ World Review: “Butchers of Bucha”

Here’s a good one: In the wake of the Bucha massacres, a Russia Today commentator opined this week that the dead Ukrainians littering the street were killed by British intelligence because Bucha sounds like butcher in English. This made it easier, he continued, for British newspapers to write headlines such as the “Butchers of Bucha.”

How SIS and/or British troops managed to sneak undetected into Bucha, blow up homes, tanks and roads and kill the inhabitants is left unexplained. But that is of no consequence.  The problem is that too many Russians believe him. In fact, what passes for a reasonably independent opinion poll in Russia this week showed that 80 percent of the population accept the Kremlin version of events. A big part of this support is because the Russian people are denied access to news reports produced from outside Russia.

But this is only part of the story. Putin knows that domestic support is essential for success in Ukraine and he has been laying down the foundational lies since 2007—perhaps even before. These included: Ukraine is governed by Nazis. NATO is threatening to overrun Russia. Russian culture is under threat from the West. Russia is being denied its rightful place as a great power. With this firm propaganda bedrock in place – and total state control of the media – it becomes easier for the Russian public to swallow the inevitable mountain of lies that follow.

It is unsurprising that Russian soldiers are being accused of violent war crimes. Violence begets violence and Russia, according to their own statistics, is a violent society. Russian police have reported that one in four Russian households have suffered domestic violence at some point. The figures are considered a major embarrassment, so much so that the Duma recently voted to massage the statistics by decriminalising several categories of domestic violence in an attempt to improve the national image.

The roots of the problem are directly linked to chronic national alcoholism.  Twenty-five percent of Russian men die before the age of 55 alcohol-related diseases. On average, each Russian downs 1,500 shots of vodka a year. Various governments over the years have tried to curb Russians’ love affair with the bottle. The latest attempt was in 2010 when President Dmitri Medvedev introduced a minimum charge of $3 a bottle of vodka and banned drinking and driving. The legislation, however, appears to have little effect on drinking habits and recently the Kremlin gave into public pressure and amended the drink driving law to allow “one for the road.”

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Observations of an expat: Amazing Ukraine

It is incredible what the Ukrainian army has achieved. If NATO answers the Ukrainian foreign minister’s call for “weapons, weapons and weapons” then Vladimir Putin is almost certain to suffer the most humiliating of humiliating defeats.

A few facts and figures: Ukraine’s defence budget is $5.4 billion. Russia’s is $61.7 billion. Russia has five times as many active military personnel as Ukraine; six times as many tanks and artillery, four times as many armoured vehicles; 13 times as many aircraft and more than ten times as many ships.

The line-up in Ukraine resembles the Biblical David and Goliath tale and with the same result.

The reason is that wars are not always decided on the simple issue of numbers and types of guns. There are any number of other unquantifiable factors that are thrown into the messy mix and can determine the outcome of battle.

For a start there is the undeniable question of justice. Right v. wrong. Good v. Evil. There is no doubt that in the opinion of the overwhelming proportion of the world’s population that Ukraine stands on right side of the equation and Russia on the wrong.

That has been underscored by this week’s vote in New York to remove Russia from the UN Human Rights Commission by a shattering majority of 93 votes to 24 with 58 abstentions. To remove a permanent member of the Security Council from an important UN body is a major international political statement which must reinforce the resolve of every Ukrainian fighter preparing to repel the anticipated Russian offensive in the East.

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From the Red Benches: Health and Social Care Bill

The Health and Care Bill, which is about to reach its end after the Easter break, has been a good example of a Bill which had not been thought through by the Government but massively improved in the Lords.

It is also a good example of what can be achieved by cross party working and a Minister who has been willing to listen, except when the Treasury has stuck its oar in and prevented compromise.

The Bill replaces the current Care Commissioning Groups in England with 42 Integrated Care Systems, each headed by an Integrated Care Board responsible for commissioning health and care services across its very large area. In principle the move towards integration of care is very welcome but the detail is crucial.

The ICS may include more than one Local Authority. The appropriate representation on these very powerful boards of Local Authorities and others with the right skills, knowledge and experience has been a big issue which we were determined to get right. I think we got a good result.

The Bill also introduces an advertising ban for foods high in sugar, salt and fat on TV before 9 pm and online. It also sets up a new system for investigating cases where things go wrong and where lessons can be learned by the whole service.

Crucially here we have been able to alter the Bill to ensure that people can give candid evidence in a ‘safe space’ without danger to their own future career. This is fundamental to the success of the system. Too often in the past, potential whistle-blowers have been deterred from saying what happened for fear of bullying and damage to their careers and potential learning has been lost.

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IPCC climate change report: what next?

This article aims to summarise the recent Climate Change report that was released by the UN’s IPCC, or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This will be done first by reference to the relevant global region, and near the end there is some further discussion on what comes next, and the role of this Government.

Europe

The report identified some key risks for the European region. First, there are likely to be heat-and-drought related risks to crop growing. While the rising temperatures may make agriculture more successful in Northern Europe, the higher heat and increased water scarcity will reduce output in Southern Europe, and the losses in the South are expected to be far greater than the gains in the North. If the global temperature rises by 2 degrees, water scarcity will likely impact a third of the population living in Southern Europe, or around 50,000,000 people, and if the temperature increases one degree further, more than 100,000,000 Europeans will experience water scarcity. At this temperature level – 3 degrees warmer – it is expected that coastal flood damage will increase ten-fold, and that the number of people impacted by flooding will double.

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We must protect Channel Four

On 2nd November 1982, at 4:40 pm, Scottish television presenter Paul Coia made an announcement that would change British television forever; “Good afternoon. It’s a pleasure to be able to say to you: Welcome to Channel Four”.

While the plans for a fourth independent television channel were originally devised in 1977, under the Callaghan Administration, it wouldn’t be until 1982 under Margaret Thatcher that these plans were put into motion, bringing us Channel Four and the Welsh equivalent, S4C (Sianel Pedwar Cymru/Channel Four Wales). Since its inception, we’ve seen channels branch off from Channel Four, including but not limited to 4Music, E4, More4, Film4, and a streaming platform in the form of All4. As of late, there’s been a lot of talk from the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport regarding selling Channel Four, justifying it with the claim that doing so would make it “more competitive”, in comparison to competitors such as Netflix and Amazon Prime. This is despite the fact that Channel Four is, first and foremost, a broadcaster and not a streaming platform.

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Resisting the UK’s slide into a ‘middleman’ economy

My sister-in-law is severely autistic, and as such is entitled to receive support in the form of a carer who takes her out for various activities. Over the years she has had a number of care visitors of highly variable quality, provided by a badly-managed agency under contract to the County Council. Fortunately her current care visitor is a dedicated and caring person who has improved her quality of life immeasurably. She is visibly happier, calmer and getting much more enjoyment from life, and of course want this to continue. The carer herself earns minimum wage but the Council pays the agency over twice this for her time. We are now looking at employing this carer directly, which involves her becoming self-employed and being paid directly by the Council. If we do this the Council will pay her £14 an hour, which looks like a pay rise until you remember that she will be self-employed and so will not have any of the benefits or security of full employment such as holiday pay.  In fact she will be little better off financially and the main benefit is to remove the bad agency from the arrangement and ensure continuity of care with this particular valued carer.

What strikes me about this situation is that the council is willing and able to pay more then £14 per hour for her time, but not to benefit the carer herself – only to benefit a company who will take a large slice of the funding. Why?

My niece is a very bright young woman who graduated a couple of years ago with a first-class degree. She currently works for HMRC. Except she doesn’t – she works for a company who take on graduates, provide training and then sell their time to others. In this case they sell my niece’s time to a major international consulting firm who in turn are contracted by HMRC.  I don’t have the numbers but I suspect HMRC (i.e. the taxpayer) are paying 3-4 times what my niece earns for her time. Why?

The UK’s energy regulator, OFGEM, has over 1000 permanent employees and an annual budget of over £100m. It spends nearly £20m a year with consultants, and recently paid £420k to an outside consultancy to advise on the price cap changes. Why does a well-resourced quasi-Government body need to spend such large amounts of money with consultants just to perform one of its core responsibilities? Incidently, the same consultants contracted by OFGEM also work for the Big 6 energy suppliers – couldn’t they at least find one with some independence?

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Triple lock restored but half a million miss out

Work and Pensions Secretary Therese Coffey has confirmed that the government will remain committed to the state pension triple lock for the rest of this parliament, following the temporary move to a ‘double lock’ in 2022 because of pandemic distortions. 

This means that in April 2023 British state pensioners will once again receive an uplift at the highest of the rise in earnings, price inflation or 2.5%. Due to the huge increase in the cost of living this year, and depending on what this amounts to by September, the increase in April 2023 could be 8% or higher.

It may appear generous but pensioners will still have to cope with inflationary pressures for a whole year while waiting for the increase to take effect. And let’s not forget that the increase they are receiving this year will be less than originally promised by the government in their election manifesto. 

Even with the Triple Lock, the fact is that the British state pension is one of the lowest relative to average earnings among the developed countries constituting the OECD.

There is another fallacy that is overlooked even by the unions. Namely the concept of cost of living increases calculated in terms of percentages. For a low earner or pensioner with an annual income of £10,000 an increase of 8% would amount to £800 whereas a person with an income of £100,000 would receive an increase of £8,000! The tax brackets may reduce the disparity a little but it should be obvious that the system simply results in an ever-widening gap in monetary terms between the rich and the poor.

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LGBT+ Allies need to step up

On March 31 2022, Boris Johnson announced he was U-turning on the government’s pledge to ban conversion “therapy”; a form of abuse that seeks to undermine someone’s gender and/or sexual identity, and gaslight them into believing how they view themselves is wrong and must be “corrected”.

Due to backlash from politicians across the House; including a number of Tory MPs, and LGBT+ pressure groups Johnson acquiesced – to a point. He has promised to uphold the ban on gay and bisexual conversion therapy but has failed to do the same regarding trans conversion therapy. What has been made very clear is that the LGBT+ community is viewed as nothing more than a vehicle to gain votes for Boris Johnson. The way he is willing to make such rash, disgusting decisions that compromise the rights and safety of individuals serve to highlight that now, more than ever, LGBT+ allies need to rally around the community and bolster our support.

We cannot expect trans people to shoulder the burden of standing against societal, and now state-sanctioned oppression alone. If we want to see real change, we must create platforms that amplify trans voices. We need to contact MPs, MSPs, MSs, MLAs, Councillors, Mayors, anyone and everyone that is integral to our political system and encourage them to speak up against such prejudice. We must listen, not to respond, but to understand and learn from trans people, the negative experiences they face and what we can do to mitigate them. It is our moral responsibility to defend and uphold the individual freedoms of all people – a responsibility that our government has abandoned.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

The jury is out on the value of French President Emmanuel Macron’s numerous and lengthy telephone/zoom/face to face talks Vladimir Putin.

Some diplomats claim that he is providing a valuable role in keeping open the lines of communication between NATO and the Kremlin. Others maintain that his talks have given Putin a totally undeserved credibility. Either way, the Vlad-Emmanuel chats do not appear to have had a great impact Macron’s re-election hopes as the French presidential campaign swings towards the final week before the first round on 10 April.

Macron has been the favourite for the past six months, but this week he dropped a percentage point from 28 to 27 percent of the expected first round vote and his chief rival Marine Le Pen climbed from 18 percent to 20. Pollsters, however, still give the incumbent the advantage in the 24 April second round, but it has narrowed to 52-53 percent of the vote.

Right-winger Ms Le Pen has clearly had some success in de-demonising her National Rally Party. She has been helped by the candidacy of the extreme right-winger Eric Zemmour who wants to deport 100,000 Muslims a year. Ms Le Pen has successfully shifted the focus of her campaign from the traditional issue of immigration to the cost of living crisis. This has put her in a position to pick up second round votes from the left of the French political spectrum with her economic policy and votes from the right with her slightly more acceptable anti-immigration policies.

However, Macron has also had some recent successes. In January, the French economy has its biggest every monthly jump as it bounced back from the pandemic and he has managed to reduce unemployment to 7.4 percent.

Reports emanating from Britain’s MI6 and GCHQ and America’s CIA and National Security Agency are in total agreement – Putin goofed. He completely miscalculated the resolve of the Ukrainian people and the Western Alliance and the ability of his own military forces. But according to the spy chiefs, it gets even worse. The Russian president has surrounded himself with advisers who are terrified of telling him the truth. The result is that his decision to invade was made on the basis of intelligence which fitted the prejudices and political beliefs of Putin rather than the facts.

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Hina Bokhari AM writes: Being a Muslim candidate during Ramadan

When I reminded my Lib Dem colleague, Richard Poole, that I was going to be fasting for the next four weeks of the elections, he asked immediately how they should support me and how to show respect to Muslim voters during the campaign. So I thought it would be useful if I shared some useful facts and insight into the month of Ramadan and how it may impact Muslim candidates like me and voters in the next phase of the election campaign.

Firstly, I want to thank Richard for showing an interest. When I was younger, few would ask about my faith. Now I have friends who want to join me in fasting and come over for Iftar, the meal at the end of the fast, at sunset. Lots has changed in people’s perception of Islam, sadly because of some very negative Muslim imagery in the media after the New York September 11th attacks. But from this difficult time also came positive curiosity, a genuine keenness to understand and to learn.

As a Muslim woman in politics, I am proud to talk about my faith and encourage people to learn and participate in our traditions and customs. I’m so proud that during the first lockdown we held the Lib Dem Iftar which included MPs, councillors and members fasting along with other Muslim Lib Dems. It was a great immersive learning experience which I would love to do again.

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Observations of an expat: more global moves

The Ukraine War continues to create tectonic shifts on the global diplomatic scene.  This week it has helped Beijing stake its claim to Afghanistan and Central Asia as a Chinese sphere of influence.

Also in Asia, New Delhi has become the centre of diplomatic ferment as East and West bid for support from the South Asian giant.

At the same time, the EU has ditched its “talk about trade only” policy with China to join the US in pressuring Xi Jinping to come out against the war.

In the meantime, Putin has turned the energy screws on Europe by demanding that they pay for his gas in roubles in order to support the sanctions-damaged currency.

The move has been welcomed by Beijing who think that the Western alliance will collapse in the face of the energy crisis. The EU and US however, remain united in demanding that China must not help Russia circumvent sanctions, climb off its rickety fence, act like a responsible global power with a stake in the world order, and pressure Putin to stop the killing in Ukraine.

But let’s start first in Afghanistan and central Asia where China has organised a multilateral initiative to stake its claim to replace the US as the major foreign power in Central Asia following the American retreat.

The diplomatic manoeuvrings started last week with a visit to Kabul by Chinese delegation led by Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The acting Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi described his guests as “the most important high-level delegation received by Afghanistan.”

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Meet the updated Lighthouse / Connect sync.

At long, long last, we have good news on the Lighthouse / Connect sync!

Our new synchronisation process is now up and running and you should see significant improvements in the accuracy of membership data in Connect.

We know that this not being fixed has been a long-running source of frustration for many people for a long time and this is hopefully an encouraging step towards improving our data and tools.

The synchronisation process ensures that for every member & registered supporter on Lighthouse (in Great Britain), a MyCampaign record should be created and then matched to MyVoters where possible.

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Ockenden Maternity Review: A view from the front line in Shropshire

The Ockenden Report, to be published this morning, was commissioned by Jeremy Hunt in 2017 after the parents of babies who died in the care of Shrewsbury and Telford NHS Hospital Trust (SATH) were distraught about the uncaring response of staff to their bereavement. Concerns were also raised about the numbers of preventable baby deaths.

The report of the Ockenden maternity review, which investigated 1,862 cases, will add to several recent reports detailing catastrophic failures within other NHS Trusts. This article sets out the wider context for the failures at SaTH and makes recommendations for improvements to the way that care and safeguarding is managed across the NHS.

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Targets aren’t policies – the flawed Liberal Democrat position on homes and planning

The “Building Communities” motion last autumn left us with a target of 380,000 new homes a year, despite opposition from ALDC and most of the Party hierarchy. The grassroots, especially the young, don’t trust their colleagues who have to work with government at all levels.

Targets like this are gestures that discredit our radical tradition. They are not policies and they are bound to fail unless a Party has policies that can deliver them. Noticeably none of the policies in the motion were opposed. Just the target.
The national housing target merely “feeds the beast” that is the cartel of national homebuilders and speculative landowners, in combination with lenders who between them kill our real economy. I began my working life 50 years ago as a chartered builder working for one of them. I wondered why housing site construction always made a loss until the regional manager took me aside at a training function and said: “Tony, we make all our money on land deals.” So began my inyerest in land economics.

“Investment” in a finite natural resource simply hands over wealth created by entrepreneurs and workers, to be locked up in bank balances as unearned gains. Legalised theft. It inflates the balance sheets of large companies that plunder and speculate at our expense. That wealth needs to be re-invested in things society needs, not in pandering to greed.

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Child Q’s ordeal – from the perspective on an educator

I am a secondary school teacher in an inner-London school. We have a student body that is overwhelming non-white British.

In the context of the horrifying treatment of Child Q, our students were understandably asking many questions about whether we as teachers, could be trusted by them.

The sheer number of questions necessitated a discussion of the case occurred within a staff briefing, but it also left me devastated that a number of teachers in a different borough had destroyed my relationship with the students.

At this briefing, we were given an update on the facts of the case and how the school will react to this case. The discussion was productive, particularly around suspected drug possession. We were additionally informed that unless it was a dealing level found, the police would not be contacted. A crucial and needed policy. Essentially adopting a decriminalisation policy.

The mere existence of these questions says a lot about the breakdown in relationship between the public services of education and the police. If the school can’t trust the police, then why should the children. If the children have been let down by the teachers and the police, then why should they trust either.

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Tom Arms’ World Review – 27 March 2022

Fifteen thousand US troops have been either sent from America or re-deployed to NATO’s Eastern blank in Poland, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria. The total number of American soldiers now based in Europe is 90,000. But before NATO supporters become too excited by this show of martial resolve, it should be noted that at the height of the Cold War in 1960, when the Berlin Wall was built, there were 400,000 American soldiers in Europe spread across 100 sites. One should also remember that NATO has a border with Russia in the Arctic region as well as in Eastern Europe. Until 1999, Norway was the only NATO ally with a land border with Russia. Military planners are working on this strategic fact next week with a military manoeuvre in Norway dubbed “Cold Response”. The military exercise involves 30,000 troops from 27 countries, including 3,000 US marines. These exercises are meant to be held every other year, but because of reluctance from the Trump Administration and Covid, they have not taken place since 2014. This is a pity, because Norway is one of the most strategically placed NATO countries. During World War Two, its long North Atlantic coastline dotted with sheltered fjords, provided Hitler’s navy with a forward base from which to terrorise Allied shipping in the North Atlantic.

In the meantime, Ukrainian Volodomyr Zelensky is pleading for more weapons. The Biden Administration has responded this week by despatching another 2,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles and 2,000 shoulder-launched Javelin launchers, Another 15,000 anti-tank and surface to air missiles are being provided by other European countries, mainly the UK and Sweden. The EU meanwhile has upped its spending on military equipment for Ukraine to $1 billion. Ukraine will need every penny of it. The British and American arms manufacturers are not giving away their equipment. They are selling it, and just one Javelin missile costs $175,000 whether it hits or misses its Russian target.

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Department for International Trade calls for consultation over a new trade deal with Israel

The UK is Israel’s third largest trading partner, but Israel is well down the list for the UK, at about sixtieth.  However, our current trade agreement with Israel is the old European Union one, amended by inserting UK instead of EU, and the Department for International Trade (DIT) wants to upgrade the deal to “something more ambitious.”

Liberal Democrats at last September’s Conference also called for better trade ties with Israel, but they did so with a very important caveat.  They wanted to have a better trading relationship with Israel and also to observe international law, by banning trade in any goods or services from the settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT).  The settlements are, of course, illegal under the Fourth Geneva Convention (4GC), and so is trading with them.

International Law has in recent times been more honoured in the breach than the observance, and the war in Ukraine has reminded us how necessary it is to get important fundamental principles agreed across the globe, and to make sure everyone abides by them.  Signatories to the Geneva Conventions are not abiding by international law if they trade with businesses operating illegally in the OPT.

The DIT is seeking views from interested parties about how the new deal should be shaped, via this link:.  It gives us all an opportunity to say we want to put international law back in its rightful place, at the front and centre of international relations.

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Observations of an expat: Bread

Worried about energy prices? Well, you should start worrying more about the empty bread bin.

Twenty-nine percent of the world’s grain comes from Ukraine and Russia.

Russia, Belarus and Ukraine have banned the export of all grains as a direct consequence of Putin’s War. And, because of our interconnected world, when there is a shortage of one type of grain it has a ripple effect on every other.

Commodity brokers are now predicting shortages and high prices not just for wheat but also for rice, millet, rye, maize, barley, oats and sorghum. This is on top of a 50 percent increase in prices in just six months caused by a 20 percent lower than usual harvest because of climate change issues.

Then there is the impact that less grain will have on livestock production as just about every farm animal needs commercially produced grain. Everything from chicken nuggets to fillet steak is going up.

Vegans and vegetarians will be no better off. Add to the above scenario that all grain and vegetable crops are likely to be hit by a lack of fertiliser as 18 percent of the world’s potash comes from Belarus. That means lower yields and higher prices for everything that grows in the ground.

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