Category Archives: Op-eds

Tom Arms

World Review: Strange bedfellows in France, Ukraine, Roe v. Wade and Belarus

By Tom Arms | Sun 8th May 2022 - 8:07 am

French politics have been thrown into confusion with an unprecedented “Stop Macron” alliance of the left for next month’s parliamentary elections. The  concordat has been forged by France’s elder statesman of the Left, Jean-luc Melenchon who just missed being included in last month’s presidential run-offs. He has persuaded the Communists, Greens and Socialists to join his France Insoumise (LFI, France Unbowed), to stop Macron’s pro-business, pro-EU legislative agenda. But Melenchon’s pre-election coalition does not spell a foregone victorious conclusion for the French Left. The latest opinion polls show a three-way split between the left-wing alliance, Macron’s La Republique en Marche and the right of centre conservatives and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally.

The Socialists and Melenchon make strange bedfellows with opposing views on the EU and NATO membership. They do, however, agree on the bread and butter issues of lowering the retirement age, raising the minimum age and capping prices on essential products. On the other end of the political spectrum, it is uncertain whether the Republicans will support Macron or Le Pen in the new National Assembly. The political map is further complicated by France’s two-round electoral assembly which appears to give Macron’s party a slight advantage in the run-off vote on 19 June. The only thing that is clear at the moment is that the National Assembly elections are making life complicated for the newly re-elected President Emmanuel Macron and the results may make his second term very difficult.

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Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Biden Pivots Back

By Tom Arms | Sat 7th May 2022 - 8:04 am

President Joe Biden is attempting a pivot back to Asia. After months of being forced by Ukraine to re-focus on Europe, the American president is organising an Asian month and his first presidential trip to the region.

It starts next week with a US-hosted summit of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) leaders on 12-13 May and ends with visits to South Korea and Japan on 20-24 May and finally, a “Quad” summit in Tokyo on 24 May.

The trips to Seoul and Tokyo are an opportunity for President Biden to hold his first face-to-face meetings with Asia’s new diplomatic kids on the block—South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio.

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Lib Dems power ahead in Powys but not yet in control

By Andy Boddington | Fri 6th May 2022 - 5:51 pm

In 2017, the voters in Powys elected 30 independent councillors, though that was down on previous elections. The Conservatives had 19 seats and the Liberal Democrats 13.

Today us Lib Dems have 24 seats, not enough to control the council but negotiations on how the council will be run are getting underway.

This is a major advance for the Lib Dems in the Welsh Marches. We have 14 councillors elected as Lib Dems in Shropshire, including seven in the south west, which is next door to Powys.

 

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Wow what a night! (7.30am)

By Andy Boddington | Fri 6th May 2022 - 7:35 am

If you are just waking up, the news is the Conservatives are suffering losses, though they are not so far as great as some predicted. Labour is doing well in London having taken the former Tory strongholds of Wandsworth, Westminster and Barnet but not as well elsewhere.

The Lib Dems and Greens made gains at the expense of the bigger parties. And the Lib Dems have regained control of Hull! All the results so far are for councils in England. Scotland and Wales will begin counting shortly.

The leader of Hull’s Liberal Democrats Mike Ross told Radio 4 in the early hours: “It’s been a great night for the City of Hull.” It has been a great night for the Lib Dems too.

Just before 7.30am this morning, we had 257 seats, a gain of 57. In the New Statesman earlier in the week, Ben Walker predicted that Lib Dems would gain 41 seats in England at the best. We passed that benchmark before 5:00am.

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We’re off. It’s election day. Good luck!

By Andy Boddington | Thu 5th May 2022 - 7:00 am

The polling stations are open. The kettle is on in committee rooms. Good Morning and GoTVs are being delivered. The tellers are wrapped up well, collecting data on who’s voting, even how they are voting. Data officers are heads down. The Shuttleworths are being warmed up. The knocker uppers are getting ready to get the straggling voters out.

Votes will take place in all 32 councils in Scotland and all 22 councils in Wales. Elections are being held in 146 English councils, including all 32 boroughs in London. In Northern Ireland, voters will select 90 members of the Northern Ireland Assembly in Stormont.

Across all four nations, 21,352 candidates are standing, including 3,664 Lib Dems.

Counting begins in some English councils soon after the polls close at 10pm tonight and elsewhere tomorrow. Some counting may go into Saturday.

The team here at LDV will be juggling election duties with reporting the results. We wish all those standing and campaigning the best of luck.

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Toby Matthews

“There is a great deal of ruin in a nation” — But how much? And where is it?

By Toby Matthews | Wed 4th May 2022 - 1:14 pm

When the Chancellor raises National Insurance, are the effects the same everywhere? We don’t know.  But we ought to — regional inequality in the UK is so stark that comparisons to reunified Germany bear out. If fiscal policy plays a role in this, we need to know ‘how much’ and ‘where’.

There’s very good reason to ask for answers: long-established economic theory holds that governments will create poverty through taxation on economic activity:

All economic principles must be tried and proved at the margin. On marginal land there is no surplus above non-land costs, hence there is no taxable

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Mary Reid

Eve of Poll

By Mary Reid | Wed 4th May 2022 - 10:45 am

My colleague Mark Valladares regularly entertains us with his “Welcome to my day” posts. So today I want to share with you my Eve of Poll day.

I have been campaigning for the Lib Dems (and Liberals and SDP before that) since the mid 1970s. I was asked to stand as a paper candidate in 1978 in the ward where I lived. I declined but I doubt whether I would have made much difference to the 6% vote.  Only 8 years later we won the ward with 58% and after a further 8 years we reached an astonishing 76%. (I can claim no credit for that as I was then employed by the local authority and not able to stand.)

I like to tell that story because it says two things. First, politics is a long game, and in normal times we should aim for incremental gains rather than massive turnarounds. Second, the old strategy of “pick a ward and win it” does work – not always, but it’s worth a shot.

As a party we are brilliant at by-elections, both Parliamentary and local. So many of our members love joining in a campaign, and we make it fun. But by-elections can give a distorted impression of how we win seats in regular Council and Assembly elections. For the most part success follows years of campaigning – “Working for you all the year round, not just at election time”. True, we can sometimes benefit from the mood of the country, but we should always view that as a bonus.

So tomorrow I will be excited to see long-term efforts paying off across the country.  Good luck to all candidates and campaigners!

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The Voice

Ed Davey calls for Windfall Tax on energy companies to help people cope with rising prices

By The Voice | Tue 3rd May 2022 - 3:45 pm

Ed Davey went on BBC Breakfast this morning to call for a windfall tax on energy companies as BP announced soaring profits for the first three months on this year. Funds raised would be used to give people who are struggling with high bills “a really big tax cut.” Ed said that the Conservatives were totally out of touch with what was going on in the country.

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The Voice

Daisy Cooper highlights failure of Government to support 2 million pensioners

By The Voice | Tue 3rd May 2022 - 2:15 pm

As Boris Johnson showcases his lack of understanding about the problems vulnerable people are facing as energy and food costs soar, Lib Dem Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper has highlighted that 2 million pensioners will not qualify for the Government’s Council Tax rebate.

The Prime Minister’s interview on Good Morning Britain was a further embarrassment for the Government. Susanna Reid told him about Elsie, a 77 year old pensioner, who gets just the basic State Pension and whose energy bills have gone up from £17 per month to £85 per month. She doesn’t qualify for the Council Tax rebate. She is eating just one meal a day and is spending her days travelling on buses to keep warm. Johnson’s first reaction was to congratulate himself for introducing the bus pass that Elsie was using and he had nothing else to offer her to make life easier for her.

Daisy Cooper was quick to highlight that there are over 2 million pensioners who, like Elsie, won’t benefit from the Council Tax Rebate. It is worth reminding ourselves that this is just £150 which barely covers 2 months of Elsie’s fuel increase.

Daisy said:

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Caron Lindsay

The end of Roe vs Wade – why it matters

By Caron Lindsay | Tue 3rd May 2022 - 12:45 pm

Overnight, Politico published a draft of a US Supreme court decision which, if confirmed, will end the right of American women and pregnant people to access abortion. This has been an inevitable trajectory since Justice Anthony Kennedy announced his retirement from the Supreme Court in June 2018, giving Donald Trump the chance to ensure a conservative majority.  During his term, Trump appointed three conservative justices, a move destined to roll back not just abortion rights, but potentially the right to same sex marriage as well.

Ending the legal right to seek an abortion is a disaster for women. Before it was enacted, women in many states died when pregnancy threatened their lives because they could not get an abortion. This is a basic civil rights issue for women.

Not only that, but we have to remember that the US is a country without either universal health care or paid maternity leave. Crooked Media’s Hysteria podcast host Erin Ryan gave birth to her daughter Juniper last November and in this post highlights the thousands of dollars she had to pay out just to get through her pregnancy and birth and how she had to ask the specialist administering her epidural if he took her insurance:

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Suzanne Fletcher

Liberal Tradition in Honiton

By Suzanne Fletcher | Tue 3rd May 2022 - 11:10 am

Who says that Honiton does not have a Liberal tradition? Admittedly it is going back a bit to the 18th century but Honiton did have a radical and liberal leaning MP then, Stockton born Brass Crosby.

It was in the days of Rotten Boroughs, so you may say nothing to be proud of there, but that was the system that there was then, and to his credit, he was part of a group of leading City of London politicians that were calling for constitutional reform that included ending Rotten Boroughs. In 100 years’ time it could be said that politicians of today had no mandate from the people as they were elected under the undemocratic first past the post.

This is an extract from the book I wrote, “Bold as Brass?” helpfully published by Christine Headley after reading about him in an LDV post!

A number of radical Whig Aldermen who were passionate about preventing the erosion ofrights and liberties of citizens stood in parliamentary elections. These were times of “Rotten Boroughs” and in 1768 he became the MP for Honiton “a small town in Devon with a comparatively liberal franchise”,37 which he continued to represent until the dissolution in September 1774.38 After the founding of the Campaign for the Abolition of the Slave Trade in 1787, there were anti-slavery meetings and petitions in Exeter and many Devon towns including Honiton. Joseph Sturge, a successful businessman there founded the British and Foreign Anti Slavery Society in 1839, the forerunner of today’s Anti Slavery International (ASI) which recently campaigned successfully for the Modern Slavery Act.So it appears that over two centuries ago Honitonians not only campaigned against the British slave trade but were also involved in the campaign to end slavery throughout the world.39 There is no record of Brass Crosby ever actually visiting the town, as was common in the rotten boroughs of the day. A visit to local libraries and reference archives shows no
information of the happenings in Parliament other than regurgitating what the London press was saying about the events. The only other reference to Honiton and Parliament that has turned up is that the lace-making town sent a lace jabot to Bernard Weatherill when he was Speaker of the House of Commons.

37 Brown, Alba Theodore Grant, 1933. Half Lights on Chelsfield Court Lodge, Liverpool.
38 http://www.histparl.ac.uk/volume/1754-1790/constituencies/honiton
39 Midweek Herald, Honiton, 5 May 2017. Honiton history: What has the slave trade to do with us?

Brass Crosby’s actions are those that we Liberals should be proud of.

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Michal Siewniak

Faith and politics: “toxic mix” or a perfect combination?

By Michal Siewniak | Mon 2nd May 2022 - 12:57 pm

Dalai Lama once said: “If you talk, you are only repeating what you already know. But if you listen, you may learn something new”.

As a practising Christian, I was delighted (and a bit worried!) when I was invited by the Focolare community in London to give a talk on how faith relates to politics. A lot of people would say today: “I don’t do both”! However for some, both faith and politics go hand in hand. Our political choices are guided by our religion or faith affiliation. Our beliefs often become our moral compass, which “dictates” in many cases the way we vote, or decide who to support at the polling station. Having said that, there is a growing number of people who think that although faith and politics have arguably a lot in common, they are too “closely aligned”.

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Are farmers flocking to the Lib Dems?

By Andy Boddington | Sun 1st May 2022 - 3:23 pm

There is a stereotype around and about. That farmers vote Tory. Of course, many farmers vote Tory as do many non-farmers. But a growing number of farmers are supporting the Lib Dems. We saw this in North Shropshire where orange diamonds went up in fields across the constituency. This week, Stuart Roberts the outgoing deputy president of the National Farmers Union (NFU), previously a Conservative councillor, joined the Liberal Democrats.

There is a modal shift underway in rural areas. Areas and occupations previously seen as “true blue” are getting fed up with the way they have been ignored by the Conservative government. It is not just about farming. The lack of affordable housing, the growth of second homes and the paucity of public transport concern rural voters. As does the cost of fuel for vehicles and to heat homes. The Tories are ignoring these issues. They are ignoring the reality that many small farms are likely to go out of business as funding schemes change. Far from being protectors of the countryside as they have boasted in the past, the Conservatives are increasingly seen as its enemy.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 1st May 2022 - 10:20 am

Elon Musk is a brilliant entrepreneur and the world’s richest man. He also has a gargantuan ego, mercurial personality and thinks big. Tesla was developed to create a carbon-free planet. Space X is designed to give humanity a Martian bolthole in case we fail on Earth. His takeover of Twitter is, in his words, the result of a “strong intuitive sense that having a public platform that is maximally trusted and broadly inclusive is extremely important for the future of civilisation.”

Musk is a free speech absolutist. He is opposed to Twitter’s banning of Donald Trump but would be likely to countenance suspension. This brings the mercurial Musk into conflict with most of the EU governments, Britain and India. They have either introduced or are planning legislation to force social media to police their sites to prevent hate speech, conspiracy theories and outright lies such as Trump’s claim that he won the 2020 presidential election.  How this will resolve itself will be watched very carefully by all the other social media players because, based on past performance, Musk is not the sort of person to quietly accept government interference.

With the French presidential elections and the war of Ukraine grabbing the headlines you might have missed an important election result in the Balkan state of Slovenia. It was billed as a “referendum on democracy” and democracy won. On one side of the political ring was incumbent Prime Minister Janez Jansa. He is a Trump-loving ally of Hungary’s right-wing populist leader Viktor Orban. According to Freedom House his latest two-year tenure (he had been elected PM twice before), has been marked by Slovenia suffering the sharpest decline in Democratic institutions and values of any country in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Jansa repeatedly attacked the judiciary and the media whom he called “liars” and “presstitutes”.

Facing Jansa was 55-year-old former Fulbright scholar Robert Golob.  He is businessman who created the state-owned energy company GEN-1 and has limited political experience as a city councillor and former State Secretary at the Ministry of Economics. In January he created the Freedom Party to contest the April elections. The result was a resounding victory. The Freedom Party won 34.5 percent of the vote compared to 23.6 percent for Jansa’s Slovenian Democratic Party. The turnout was also encouraging. 71 percent of Slovenia’s 1.7m voters cast their ballots compared to 51 percent in elections two years ago. The increase in voter turnout has been attributed to Golob persuading young people to vote – a possible lesson for other politicians seeking to remove far right populists from elected office.

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Parish resigns decently over indecency in the Commons

By Andy Boddington | Sat 30th April 2022 - 6:37 pm

In what is possibility the most honest resignation in recent times, Neil Parish MP for Tiverton and Honiton has taken the Chiltern Hundreds.

In a government led by Boris Johnson, who has been widely accused of lying, his resignation has been honest and frank. Although Parish was initially was looking for tractors while on the Conservative benches, he found something that entertained him more. Then he went back again. He told the BBC:

“I did get into another website that had a very similar name and I watched it for a bit, which I shouldn’t have done.

“But my crime – biggest crime – is that on another occasion I went in a second time.”

He is victim of his own misfortune and he had to go voluntarily or be dismissed. He chose not to hang on. It is rare now for MPs to resign with decency, even if they are resigning for indecency.

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Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Crossing the Ukrainian Rubicon

By Tom Arms | Fri 29th April 2022 - 6:48 pm

America this week crossed its Ukrainian Rubicon.

It took a while. And with good reason. US foreign policy was badly burned by operations in Afghanistan and the Middle East. It could not afford another expensive failure.

That’s not to say that the Biden Administration failed to support Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invasion. It froze the oligarchs’ assets, imposed sanctions, dispatched 100,000 US troops to Europe and provided $14 billion in military and humanitarian aid.

But at the same time, President Biden, was ultra-careful not to prod the Russian bear into a World War Three. There were to be no NATO boots on Ukrainian soil and a close watch was kept on any weapons provided to the Ukrainian military.

NATO forces will still keep out of Ukraine, but the flow and type of weapons is being substantially upgraded. On Thursday the president announced that he wants Congressional approval for a further $33 billion for Ukraine. $20 billion in the form of military aid; $8.5 billion in economic aid and $3 billion in humanitarian aid. A pro-Ukraine Congress will almost certainly approve the package.

The president also wants to liquidate the $1 billion-plus in oligarchs’ frozen assets to help offset the cost of the Ukraine war. This may not be much in comparison to the global total, but if Europe follows suit they will add an estimated $30 billion to the pot.

Biden’s announcement followed a trip to Kyiv by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, which in turn was followed by a meeting at America’s Ramstein Air Base in Germany of more than 40 countries who pledged to support Ukraine. The usually soft-spoken low profile Lloyd Austin was loud in his condemnation of Vladimir Putin and his support for Volodomyr Zelensky.

“We will not allow Putin to win,” said Austin, and it was clear from his comments and those of Antony Blinken that in supporting Ukraine the US believed it was backing good against evil and was on the right side of history. “Russia,” said the American Defence Secretary, “is waging a war of choice to indulge the ambitions of one man. Ukraine is fighting a war of necessity to defend its democracy, its sovereignty and its citizens.”

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Sally Hamwee

The Nasty and Brutish Bill

By Sally Hamwee | Fri 29th April 2022 - 4:14 pm

Not its formal title of course (that’s Nationality and Borders), but it better describes the anti-asylum seekers, refugees and victims of modern slavery bill that was passed last night.

I wrote on Lib Dem Voice in January in what now seem relatively moderate terms criticising the Bill which has been opposed by, among others, the UNHCR.  I won’t write an essay now, but I want to say how grateful we are to colleagues in the party for all that so many do, working and volunteering in the sector – and to share some of what happened at the last stages of what earlier today became an Act of Parliament.

The last vote called would have made it quite clear that the Bill / Act complies with the Refugee Convention. The amendment, considered necessary by some of the most senior lawyers in the land (and by Lord (Ken) Clark, who understood the duties of a Lord Chancellor), was moved by Shami Chakrabarti who was splendid.  The Labour front bench took the view that we were at the end of the road on the Bill, and while they supported the principle were not prepared to vote to support one of their own. But she did call a vote – if she hadn’t, we were geared up to do so.  It was defeated 157 to 212.

The 157 included 35 Labour peers (their group is 167 – the others who were here abstained); and 72 Liberal Democrats (out of 83). You can work out how the percentages compare.

The previous day a vote was called by a Bishop (and they don’t do these things lightly) on offshoring / outsourcing. 221 opponents defeated the 216 of us who supported it and who included 73 Lib Dems and 102 Labour.

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Mary Reid

“Girls don’t like hard maths” according to Social Mobility Commissioner

By Mary Reid | Fri 29th April 2022 - 9:39 am

My ears pricked up when government’s Social Mobility Commissioner, Katharine Birbalsingh, was asked why so few girls take A level Physics. Her response was: “I just think they don’t like it. There’s a lot of hard maths in there that I think they would rather not do.”

You see, I took A Levels in Double Maths and Physics back in the 60s and then went on to take Maths as part of my degree. The majority of the students taking Maths in my year at University were women. So Katharine Birbalsingh’s comments seem, well, odd. She also added that she thought this was “natural”, and was not concerned that only 16% of the A Level Physics students in the school that she leads were girls, compared with the national average of 23%.

It is very difficult to know where to begin when someone in her position comes out with that kind of lazy and insulting generalisation. And indeed she is sternly taken to task by a number of academics and politicians. For example:

Dame Athene Donald, a professor of experimental physics and master of Churchill College, Cambridge, said the comments were “terrifying” and “quite damaging” and questioned to which research Birbalsingh was referring in suggesting that girls had an intrinsic lack of appetite for maths and physics.

And …

Dr Jess Wade, a physicist at Imperial College London who campaigns for equality in science, said: “I honestly can’t believe we’re still having this conversation. It’s patronising, it’s infuriating, and it’s closing doors to exciting careers in physics and engineering for generations of young women. Whilst girls and boys currently choose A-level subjects differently, there is absolutely no evidence to show intrinsic differences in their abilities or preference.”

Munira Wilson (who is our Education spokesperson) challenged Katharine Birbalsingh to apologise.

Wilson said ministers had “failed to challenge the culture of misogyny and unconscious biases in our education system for years”, and that every child should get the chance to “thrive and follow their passions during their time at school”. She added: “The government must finally step up to the plate and act. We need new measures to challenge these biases, backed up by legislation, and Katharine Birbalsingh should apologise for her remarks.”

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Chris Bowers

We must not be complicit in fighting local elections on national issues

By Chris Bowers | Wed 27th April 2022 - 7:03 pm

The old adage “Be careful what you wish for” could be reworded as “Be careful how what you wish for actually comes about.” No, it doesn’t flow easily off the tongue, I grant you, but we do need to be wary of willing the ends without paying some attention to the means.

As the 5 May local elections rapidly approach, the media is full of what a bad result for the Conservatives could mean for Boris Johnson’s future. Both media people and politicians are full of “Voters have a chance to make their feelings felt in the local elections” about Johnson’s fate, and other national issues. It makes my blood boil to hear such statements, even though I’m as keen as anyone to see the back of Johnson.

The reason is that I have seen countless top-quality councillors do a brilliant job for four, eight or more years but then get unceremoniously bundled out of office because their party is out of favour nationally. It’s heart-breaking and a real disincentive to stand in the first place. It happens because elections that should be about dustbins and council housing are made into faux referendums on the popularity of the party in power nationally.

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NewsHound

Vote for Gerry the Springer

By NewsHound | Tue 26th April 2022 - 12:22 pm

There are lots of elections going on at the moment, with Lib Dems across the country campaigning hard to hold and gain council seats.

There is another competition going on , however. Voting is open for Holyrood’s Dog of the Year. If you like dogs and want a wonderful way to take a break, spend some time reading about all the canine participants. We can guarantee you will fall in love with at least one of the contenders. They are all wonderful.

The sole Lib Dem entrant is Gerry, the cleverly named Springer Spaniel who owns Liam McArthur, our Orkney MSP.

Gerry is by far the most bonkers of any of the participants and delights readers of Liam’s social media.

His entry on the Dog of the Year site says:

What are your favourite characteristics of your dog?

Nose down, tail up, Gerry the Springer is never happier than when he’s on a scent. With ears that can pick up Sky TV and help him seemingly levitate, as well as his impersonation of a ‘busted sofa’ when asleep, Gerry has melted hearts across social media.

Gerry is an adored member of the McArthur family and much loved in the constituency office offering TheraPet sessions on Mondays and Fridays for staff and often constituents too.

How does your dog enhance your day to day life?

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Humphrey Hawksley

Lithuania takes Liberal lead against authoritarianism

By Humphrey Hawksley | Mon 25th April 2022 - 4:21 pm

The Baltic country of Lithuania, with a population of fewer than three million, has become a European lightning rod for liberal democratic values in the battle against authoritarianism.

Key Belarus and Russian opposition figures are in exile there. Democratic Taiwan has opened an office in Vilnius to push for a tougher stand against Chinese expansion. Here are a few lines from my recent conversations.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, wife of opposition figure Sergei Tikhanovsky, now jailed by the Belarus regime;

It’s very important to understand that people who have been living in dictatorship for 27 years, also have to study

…

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Jane Dodds

Basic Income – sign the pledge!

By Jane Dodds | Mon 25th April 2022 - 12:20 pm

I want to encourage all Liberal Democrat candidates in the local election to sign this pledge of support for trials of universal basic income (UBI). If you are a candidate in London you can sign a London-specific pledge.

This initiative is being promoted by the UBI Labs Network, one of the leading organisations campaigning for UBI in the UK.

The Liberal Democrats made UBI official party policy in 2020 and this is a great opportunity to show that party members up and down the country support UBI.

It may seem like a small thing to sign a pledge like this. After all, councils by themselves could not put such an initiative into action: they cannot raise the revenue to pay for it or change the tax code in ways that support it. So why bother?

And yet, and yet… every big journey begins with a single step.

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George Cunningham

Making Putin Pay

By George Cunningham | Sun 24th April 2022 - 11:55 am

This week, G7 finance ministers said that they – together with the international community – will be helping Ukraine to the tune of more than US$ 24 billion this year and beyond. And the door is open for more.

However, this is just a drop in the ocean of blood and destruction in Ukraine. Already three weeks into Russia’s invasion, President Zelenskyy had estimated that Ukraine had suffered half a trillion US dollars’ worth of damage to housing and infrastructure, let alone the ongoing cruel cost of human suffering and death.

Western countries are reported to have frozen at least half of the Russian Central Bank’s estimated US$ 600 billion of foreign currency reserves which are in their possession. Rather than help its own people have better lives, Russia is said to have been gradually putting aside such a colossal sum since Crimea’s 2014 annexation to have a handy “fortress Russia” war chest. They are now experiencing serious difficulties, as much of that prop is no longer available to them.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 24th April 2022 - 9:50 am

The Russians have changed generals as well as shifting the focus of their attack from the north to the east and south. The new man is Lt. General Alexander Dvornikov, aka “the butcher”, a title he earned for his merciless bombardments in the Second Chechen War and Syria. In the first he levelled Grozny and the second left Aleppo a smouldering ruin whose streets were littered with the bodies of civilians. General Dvornikov is wanted for alleged war crimes in Syria and has been blacklisted by the EU.  Vladimir Putin has awarded him with the Hero of Russia medal.

Dvornikov’s appointment also signals a change in strategy. Previously, daily operations were directed from military headquarters in Moscow. Dvornikov, who has been in Eastern Ukraine for the past two years, is expected to have much more control. His experience is with mechanised artillery units and the terrain of Eastern Ukraine is more suited to his tactics. The north and west of the country is heavily-forested. The south and east is the breadbasket of Europe with wide open plains resembling the American Midwest. His problem is that the Ukrainian military have prepared for his attack with trenches and anti-tank traps. He should also bear in mind that being a general in the Russian army is a dangerous job. The Ukrainians have killed eight so far.

Meanwhile, back on the home front, Vladimir Putin is resorting to the tactics of the man whom he has repeatedly said he admires – Joseph Stalin. The Soviet dictator used a combination of fear, the media, the police and repression to ensure adherence to his policies. Putin is doing the same. The enemy, according to Putin and Russian television, is no longer Neo-Nazis in Kyiv. It is the West “attempting to destroy Mother Russia.” Ukrainians are no longer fellow Slavs awaiting liberation, they are “traitors who deserve only to be ground into the dust.”

Also guilty of treason, is anyone who disseminates “fake news” about the “special military operation” in Ukraine (“fake news” is defined as anything other than news that originates in the Kremlin). So far 15,000 people have been arrested for refusing to toe the Putin line. They face up to 15 years in prison.  To further keep the lid on the dissidents, authorities are encouraging family, neighbours and friends to inform on each other – another Stalinist tactic.

For the moment the strategy is working. Vladimir Putin appears to have the overwhelming support of the Russian public. This may change with a worsening of the economic situation. When Western sanctions were initially imposed the rouble nose-dived and overnight the savings of millions of Russians were wiped out. Since then the central bank has intervened, buying roubles from its reserves. This has blunted the effect of the sanctions and stabilised the currency, but the head of the central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, has warned that this policy is unsustainable beyond the short term. But no matter, President Putin, has decided he wants a result by the 9th of May, the anniversary of the end of World War Two, which means that eastern Ukraine can expect a rough next few weeks.

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State of the Locals Survey 2022: opinions of councils and MPs

By Andy Boddington | Sat 23rd April 2022 - 5:35 pm

The Local Government Information Unit (LGIU) has released an Ipsos survey of 4,330 residents’ attitudes to councils and councillors, and their priorities. Earlier, Ipsos published part of the poll which also included people’s opinions of MPs and a regional breakdown of opinion. This survey gives a useful perspective for campaigners who are out drumming up support ahead of the 5 May elections, reinforcing and detailing what we know and what we are hearing on the doorsteps.

Respondents said local government councils and councillors had more impact on people’s daily lives and the quality of their neighbourhoods than the government. However, a majority of respondents lacked knowledge and awareness about how councils work and what councillors actually do. Half of people think MPs don’t tell the truth, while a third thought the same of councillors.

This survey can be read as disappointing. We would all like achieve more as councillors and people to have better knowledge of what we do. But on many matters, it is not as bad as I might have feared. And we know that Lib Dem councillors outclass most others in communicating, not just in the lead up to an election, but throughout their term in office.

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The Voice

Lib Dem MPs criticise Jacob Rees-Mogg for “get back to office” memo

By The Voice | Sat 23rd April 2022 - 11:16 am

This week Jacob Rees-Mogg left a very passive-aggressive note on a Whitehall noticeboard in an attempt to guilt-trip civil servants back to work. It is hardly surprising that a man who seems to be allergic to the 21st century can’t see the benefits in modern working practices which were very useful during the pandemic and helpful when infection rates are still so high.

Working from home is good for those with disabilities or caring responsibilities which make it more difficult for them to come into the office. A liberal approach would do all it could to ensure that everyone had the working model that suited them. For some, that will be coming in to the office at least some of the time because they feel better doing that. That liberal approach would also make sure that those who are working from home aren’t cut out of workplace power structures – those water cooler conversations, for example. That’s particularly important for those who changed jobs during the pandemic and are getting to know people in their new organisations.

Lib Dem MPs Jamie Stone and Helen Morgan took Rees-Mogg to task:

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Tom Arms

Observations of an expat: France – Nationalism v Supra-nationalism

By Tom Arms | Fri 22nd April 2022 - 4:29 pm

The French troop to the polls this Sunday to decide whether they want to turn the clock back to 19th century nationalism with a dash of racism, or opt for European supra-nationalism.

Of course, very few French voters see the choice in those terms. Like most everyone everywhere, they are less concerned with big picture politics and more concerned with their pocket books and the spectre of the unknown.

But like it or not, the outcome of the French elections will have a major impact on the big issues in France and – because of France’s international role – the rest of the world.

The choice is clear: a vote for Marine Le Pen is a vote for 19th century nationalism. Support for incumbent Emmanuel Macron is a vote for the continuing trend towards supra-nationalism and a united Europe.

Since the end of World War Two, the world has been moving towards regionalisation, globalism and free trade. The European Coal and Steel Community, followed by the Common Market, followed by the EU has been the world’s most successful political expression of that trend. The founders’ aims have been achieved: to bind together the political and economic structures of the European nations so that war becomes “unthinkable and materially impossible.”

The price of this peace and prosperity has been curbs on national sovereignty. A majority of the British people couldn’t stomach it. They also felt that their national identity was threatened. The result was Brexit. Marine Le Pen represents a slice of the French electorate who would favour a Frexit for the same reasons.

The leader of National Rally pushed for a British-style referendum in the 2017 presidential race. She lost that badly and so this time around she watered down her Euro-scepticism. Instead she has proposed everything short of Frexit – withdrawal from the Schengen Agreement, the primacy of French law over the EU, and French state subsidies in contravention of EU regulations. All of which would put France on an early collision course with Brussels and create the conditions for Frexit.

Marine le Pen also dislikes NATO which has been dubbed the most successful military alliance in history. She wants to pull her country out of the integrated military structure. France, she says, should “no longer be caught up in conflicts that are not ours.”

Which brings us to Ukraine, Russia and Ms Le Pen’s relations with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. In common with most far-right politicians, the leader of National Rally is an admirer of strong autocratic rulers and you don’t get much stronger or more autocratic than Putin. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, she has backed away from her support of the Russian leader, but other Western leaders are worried that she would be a weak link in a so far united front against Moscow.

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Suzanne Fletcher

Yes, there are alternatives

By Suzanne Fletcher | Fri 22nd April 2022 - 11:33 am

I doubt if there are any descriptions and expletives not used about the Rwanda offshore processing scheme. The scheme in which Priti Patel wants to pack off asylum seekers arriving here by unorthodox means.

You can see the Liberal Democrats for Seekers of Sanctuary response to the proposal here: OFF SHORING PROCESSING OF ASYLUM SEEKERS IN RWANDA – STATEMENT FROM LD4SoS.

She is demanding to know alternatives, and yes there are. They are firmly embedded in Lib Dem policy.

The obvious one, most talked about, is Safe Routes for Refugees.  This has been mooted by Lib Dems since we first made the policy in 2015, and is as true as well as needed even more than it was in September 2015.  It has been in every manifesto commitment since.

However, more than that is needed.  Lib Dems have another policy, DECISION MAKING ON ASYLUM APPLICATIONS (pdf), saying that:

Liberal Democrats will review and reform all aspects of current asylum rules and operations that offend basic measures of fairness and justice. In particular, we would seek to change the culture of disbelief that affects all people applying for asylum. The Home Office is not fit for purpose and needs radical reform. The political influence must be taken out of decision making.

This is a radical departure from the present system, having respect, dignity and fairness at its heart.

It will cost more at first, with better trained staff, but decisions would be fairer and quicker.  It will be more accurate for the first time, so not so many appeals needed.  Appeals are not only traumatic for those making them, but cost the Ministry of Justice money, and 40% of them are won.  How much better for all if they get the decision right first time!

It would also be a system that took into account the different situations such as family reunion, unaccompanied children, victims of torture and rape, mental and physical health, and LGBT people.

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Morgan letter to Blue Wall MPs on Partygate vote

By Andy Boddington | Thu 21st April 2022 - 10:19 am

Ahead of the vote today on whether to refer the Prime Minister for investigation by the Committee of Privileges following his repeated lies on Partygate, North Shropshire MP Helen Morgan has written to 50 Blue Wall Tory MPs. These MPs have slim majorities and are vulnerable to a public backlash over their support for Boris Johnson.

The vote this afternoon will be on a motion that refers Boris Johnson to the Committee of Privileges for misleading the house over partygate. The motion tabled by Labour is also signed by the leaders of the SNP, Plaid Cymru. Lib Dem, Green, Social Democratic and Labour parties, and the deputy leader of the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland. The motion says the committee “shall not begin substantive consideration of the matter until the inquiries currently being conducted by the Metropolitan Police have been concluded.” However, a Tory amendment tabled by Paymaster General Michael Ellis and Leader of the House Mark Spencer defers any decision on whether to refer Johnson to the Committee of Privileges until the police inquiry has concluded.

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Stephen Harte

Members and local coalitions 

By Stephen Harte | Wed 20th April 2022 - 5:37 pm

As we hurtle towards local elections on 5th May (in Scotland, something that only happens every five years), I’d like to pause for a moment and have a think about 6th May.

In many council areas across the country, we will elect Lib Dem councillors (Yay!) and in some of those areas the question will arise whether those councillors enter coalition to form an administration. In Scotland, thanks to the Lib Dem participation in early administrations in Holyrood, we vote by Single Transferable Vote in multi-member wards (again Yay!) and this means that single party administration in any council area will be unlikely.

In the run up to 5th May, members are the source of the “3 Ds” – deliveries, door-knocking and donations. Election time makes it very clear that we could not survive as a party without our membership base – although, I do recognise that it’s not just members who contribute to the 3 Ds.

Where do members stand on 6th May? When coalition decisions are taken, often it’s the Council Group that does this alone. Some may think that this is right and proper but surely we can do better than this? If members matter on 4th May, surely they matter on 6th May and beyond?

Involving members in the decision making is a key safety valve in our process. It ensures that we don’t become trapped within the dynamic of Town Hall politics – where often personalities and petty problems can have too big an impact. It also allows for the membership to buy into the decision. In Scotland, the SNP/Green government has already decided that the next five years are going to be tough for any Council as their main job will be to deliver Nicola’s savage cuts locally.  Any administration will have to deliver bad news. Keeping your members on board is essential to weather any storm.

There are different ways of involving members and I would resist suggesting a “one size fits all” model. However, if we liberals can’t come up with a way of ensuring grassroots involvement, what hope is there for local democracy?

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