Category Archives: News

What can we take from the MRP seat projections?

13 seats.

That’s what the  You Gov MRP seat projection says we’re going to get.

Not what we wanted to hear.  YouGov only spoke to a small number of people in each seat. Our campaign teams on the ground will have spoken to thousands more people over the last few weeks. They are likely to have a much more accurate idea of what is going on and I think that they will find these projections surprising.

But note the caveat from YouGov

The idea behind MRP is that we use the poll data from the preceding seven days to estimate a model that relates interview date, constituency, voter demographics, past voting behaviour, and other respondent profile variables to their current voting intentions. This model is then used to estimate the probability that a voter with specified characteristics will vote Conservative, Labour, or some other party.

This is a Brexit election though. Brexit is an issue which has split the country into Leave and Remain voters. Traditional patterns of voting for each party may well not apply.

I’m grateful to Morgan Griffith-David for doing this work for me so I don’t have to, but the poll only gives us 13 seats, it puts us in touching distance in another 23. This should concentrate the minds of pro-Remain voters. For example, Brecon and Radnorshire is projected as Conservative 49%, Lib Dem 35%, Labour 14%. It doesn’t take a genius to work out what Labour voters need to do to stop the Tories, whose vote is not split by the Brexit party this time.

These, and others, are the seats where Remainers really need to get behind the Lib Dems to stop Boris Johnson getting a majority which will enable him to inflict Brexit hell on the country.

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27 November 2019 – today’s press releases

  • Lib Dem poster attacks Johnson for lying to Queen, Parliament and people
  • Lib Dems: Trump to profit from Brexit Britain
  • Lib Dems – Immigration detention must be absolute last resort
  • Welsh Lib Dems welcome votes at 16
  • Leaked documents show US offered PR advice to UK over chlorinated chicken

Lib Dem poster attacks Johnson for lying to Queen, Parliament and people

The Liberal Democrats will today unveil a poster attacking Boris Johnson for lying to the Queen, Parliament and the people.

Another poster will show Boris Johnson flanked by Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, stating: “Brexit is good for …

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Lib Dems announce war on plastics

Yesterday, the Liberal Democrats will set out a raft of policies as part of a radical plan to end the UK’s addiction to plastic.

These policies include:

  • Requiring all retailers to reduce the amount of plastics and non-recyclable packaging they use
  • Implementing a deposit return scheme
  • Ending plastic exports abroad by 2030

Following this announcement, Liberal Democrat Spokesperson for Energy and Climate Change, Wera Hobhouse said:

The UK produces 2.26 million tonnes of plastic packaging every year, but less than half of this is being recycled. The Conservatives have claimed they will cut plastic pollution but all they have done in reality is attempt to get

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27 November 2019 – the overnight press release

Lib Dems to give gig workers 20% increase to minimum wage and greater protections

A Liberal Democrats Government would increase the minimum wage by 20 per cent for zero-hour contract employees and introduce a raft of policies to create a working environment that protects employees.

The new, higher minimum wage for those on zero-hours contracts will seek to compensate workers for the uncertainty of fluctuating incomes.

As part of their plan for the future of work, the Liberal Democrats will also promise to establish a new ‘dependent contractor’ employment status for workers tied to one employer, which enshrines rights such as minimum …

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26 November 2019 – (most of) today’s press releases

  • Lib Dem policies would mean 600,000 fewer children in poverty
  • Lib Dems: Barnier comments show Johnson is lying to the country
  • Johnson’s Brexit Plans Disastrous for Welsh Farmers

Lib Dem policies would mean 600,000 fewer children in poverty

A report by the Resolution Foundation has found the Liberal Democrats’ policies would mean 600,000 fewer children in poverty by 2023-24, making it the most progressive of the three main parties.

The report also found child poverty risks reaching a record high under Conservative plans.

Liberal Democrat Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Tim Farron commented:

This report is a damning indictment of the Tories’ heartless welfare policy, which is

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Why we must stop Brexit: 1 “Let’s get it done”

After carefully considering the case made by the Leave campaigners ahead of the Referendum, examining the likely consequences of leaving, trying to evaluate the leavers’ motives and the benefits they predicted from leaving, and weighing these against possible disbenefits, I came to the firm conclusion that leaving the EU would be a disaster for the UK.  Despite a number of deficiencies in the European bureaucracy and the federalist tendencies of a few of the European leaders, that conclusion has been reinforced by subsequent events.

 In this first of a series of pieces that will review that evidence and reconsider the disadvantages, as well as the overwhelming benefits for Britain, of Remaining a member of the European community, I examine the superficially appealing Tory slogan, “Let’s get it done.” 

Of course, we all want to get quickly past the hugely damaging ‘Brexit process’, as does the whole of Europe. But Brexit does not ‘get it done’! Brexit would extend the agony for a year or more of trade negotiations with the EU, and that only if the Boris withdrawal agreement is approved by Parliament, an approval that was withheld three times from the rather less terrible May deal.   

The only quick and inexpensive way to ‘get it done’ is not to Brexit at all, an outcome quickly achievable by revoking Article 50.

But how legitimate would it be for Parliament thus ‘to ignore the will of the people’ and vote to Remain? The answer is clear: entirely legitimate. Referenda do not make the laws. Parliament does that; and Parliament always minutely scrutinises proposals for legislation (parliamentary motions, green papers, bills – and referenda!). It is this agonisingly protracted, but vital, Parliamentary scrutiny that has given spurious appeal to the ‘Let’s get it done’ slogan.  

Like everyone else, I’d like a decision as soon as possible, so long as it’s the right decision, which means a decision taken after the most careful scrutiny of an issue whose outcome will affect Britain economically, socially and psychologically for generations to come. Arguably it is the ‘democrats’, claiming that “the people have decided”, who have held up a decision that commanded a Remain majority among their elected representatives. I’m not arguing that the referendum result should be ignored, only that ‘Let’s get it done’ is no good reason on its own for rapidly terminating the scrutiny process in favour of either outcome. It is vital that on this crucial issue we get the right decision, as with any parliamentary bill, but bear in mind that the referendum vote was narrowly decided without access to the voluminous, relevant information that has emerged since it took place.   

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Umunna: Defence budget would be £1bn higher under Lib Dems than Tories

  • If the UK leaves the EU under Johnson’s leadership we will become more reliant on Trump, and risk becoming a vassal state of the United States.
  • Johnson is part of a network of populist, right-wing, authoritarian nationalists
  • In order to stop Boris Johnson getting a majority, seats need to be taken from the Tories which the Lib Dems are best placed to do
  • Ahead of the NATO Summit the Liberal Democrats are committing to spend extra money on defence and aid.

Yesterday, Liberal Democrat Foreign Secretary Chuka Umunna delivered a speech in Watford ahead of the NATO leaders conference.

The Liberal Democrats’ Shadow Foreign …

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26 November 2019 – the overnight press release

Lib Dems respond to Shelter report on private renters spending £11bn more than they can afford

Responding to a Shelter report that found England’s private renters are paying out £11 billion more a year on rent than they can afford, Liberal Democrat Housing Spokesperson Tim Farron said:

These shocking figures expose the Tories’ failure to tackle the housing crisis, leaving people across the country struggling with soaring rents and insecure tenancies.

The Liberal Democrats will fix the broken housing market and build a brighter future, by building at least 100,000 social homes a year.

We will limit rent hikes, strengthen protections against rogue

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Greg Dyke: Why I’m backing the Lib Dems

Greg Dyke, the broadcaster and former Director-General of the BBC is endorsing the Liberal Democrats in the General Election:

This is the most important general election in living memory. As a staunch remainer I’ll be supporting the Liberal Democrats partly because they are the leading anti-Brexit party but also because they have a progressive, centre-left, business friendly agenda. There is no way in a million years I could bring myself to support a party led by Boris Johnson, a man no-one should trust, or a party led by Jeremy Corbyn, a lifelong anti-European pretending he’s not. This is our last chance to stay in the EU.

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25 November 2019 – the day’s press releases

  • Lib Dems: Tory childcare provision just £1 per child
  • Lib Dems: We can stop Johnson ramming through a Queen’s Speech and destructive Brexit
  • Lib Dems: Home office to profit £4 million from nurse tax
  • Lib Dems: Ivan Rogers exposes Johnson’s Brexit plan as a sham

Lib Dems: Tory childcare provision just £1 per child

The Conservative Party have set out in their manifesto that if elected, they would spend £250 million a year on expanding childcare provision for primary school children after school and in the school holidays.

However, the latest Government estimate is that there are 4,727,090 pupils in state-funded primary school meaning that …

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Michael Heseltine: Reject Boris Johnson and vote Lib Dem

It’s been a weekend of high profile endorsements of the Lib Dems.

First, Alastair Campbell went canvassing with our Luciana Berger in Finchley and Golders Green:

Then Dominic Raab’s predecessor as Conservative MP for Esher and Walton backed Lib Dem Monica Harding.

From the Surrey Comet:

In a dramatic twist in the race for his old seat, Mr Taylor urged residents not to vote Conservative and said the Lib Dem’s candidate Monica Harding was “worthy of support” instead.

Monica welcomed Ian Taylor’s endorsement:

And last night, Michael Heseltine, always on the left of the Tory Party until he was ejected from it for saying he was voting for us during the Euros, announced he was doing the same again. 

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Catch-up: 24 November 2019 – the day’s press releases (part 2)

  • Lib Dems: Dishonest to promise more nurses under Boris Johnson
  • Human Rights Act on the line in this election
  • Farage takes credit for the terrible Tory manifesto

Lib Dems: Dishonest to promise more nurses under Boris Johnson

Responding to the Conservative Party manifesto commitment to 50,000 more nurses, Liberal Democrat Shadow Secretary for Health, Wellbeing and Social Care Luciana Berger said:

It is dishonest to promise there will be more nurses under Boris Johnson’s Conservatives. Our NHS has been consistently hit by the Conservatives’ NHS and social care cuts, putting the lives of loved ones right across the country at risk.

It is insulting to the

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Catch-up: 24 November 2019 – the day’s press releases (part 1)

Gotten myself into a bit of a backlog position, I’m afraid – the price you pay for going to St Albans, it seems…

  • Lib Dems to invest 7 billion to save our schools
  • Lib Dems: McDonnell refuses to come clean on Brexit
  • EU staff at Johnson’s local NHS trust feel “anxiety” over Brexit
  • Lib Dems: Tory manifesto is built on a lie

Lib Dems to invest 7 billion to save our schools

The Liberal Democrats have today announced an extra £7 billion over five years from the Party’s infrastructure budget for new school buildings and repairs to keep up with rising pupil numbers.

The funding will …

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LISTEN: to Sarah Wollaston on Any Questions

Sarah Wollaston has been another wonderful addition to the Liberal Democrats. A former GP, whose passion for the NHS is matched by her knowledge and authority on it, she’s fighting to retain her Totnes seat as a Liberal Democrat.

She was on Any Questions? on Friday night.

Listen here. 

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23 November 2019 – the overnight press release

Lib Dems: Creative subjects are at the heart of plans to build a brighter future

Liberal Democrats will put creative subjects back at the heart of the school curriculum as part of their plans to build a brighter future.

Under the Conservatives, a combination of school funding cuts, high-stakes testing and targets have squeezed creative subjects out of the classroom. Around 3,500 fewer secondary school teachers are employed in art, music, drama and design & technology compared to 2015. The number of hours spent teaching D&T in secondary schools has fallen by almost a quarter over the same period.

Liberal Democrats will …

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22 November 2019 – today’s press releases

  • Jane Dodds is the first candidate in Wales to sign the Rural Powerhouse Pledge
  • Lib Dems condemn Farage refugee comment
  • Jo Swinson stands out as strongest voice of Remain

Jane Dodds is the first candidate in Wales to sign the Rural Powerhouse Pledge

Jane Dodds has become the first Parliamentary candidate in Wales to sign the Country Land and Business Association’s new Rural Powerhouse Pledge.

The CLA’s new campaign will see it write to every Parliamentary candidate in every constituency in England and Wales asking them to pledge support for the Rural Powerhouse.

The Rural Powerhouse pledge consists of five key themes: a fully connected countryside, …

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WATCH: Alliance Party Party Election Broadcast – Demand Better

Our sister party in Northern Ireland has produced a heavily pro EU election broadcast.

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Council by-elections – 21 November

Three results in so far from last night’s by-elections.

It was disappointing to lose a seat in Chichester. It was a seat that we had held only briefly in a new ward, when we won narrowly in May. Our councillor promptly left us, joined the Greens and resigned from the Council, so the chances are that we were being punished.

Our candidate Alexander Jeffrey and his team had an almost impossible task.

In Aberdeen, the Labour vote dropped like a stone while we advanced slightly and the SNP held on to their seat.

And another rise in vote share in Cardiff.

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21 November 2019 – today’s press releases

  • Davey: Labour maths do not add up
  • Labour’s police pledge an “empty promise” without extra funding
  • Lib Dems: Widdecombe fuels election pact scandal

Davey: Labour maths do not add up

Responding to the Labour Party Manifesto launched today, Liberal Democrat Shadow Chancellor Ed Davey said:

As long as Jeremy Corbyn continues pursuing his Brexit policy, the maths in his manifesto simply do not add up.

The Liberal Democrats will stop Brexit and use the £50 billion Remain Bonus to invest in public services and build a brighter future. We’ll prioritise tackling the climate emergency and investing in housing, education and welfare, while Corbyn would embark on

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Chuka on Question Time – open thread

Chuka Umunna is about to be on Question Time.

I should be going to bed, but I can’t resist staying up and watching.

Who’s with me?

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WATCH: Liberal Democrats Party Election Broadcast – She’s running again

Here is the Lib Dem election broadcast for the General Election.

I will admit to a wee tear at the start where Jo is talking about her Dad, who died last year. He would have been so proud to see her leading an election campaign as leader of the biggest and strongest Remain party.

It’s personal, hopeful, bright and clear about our aims about stopping Brexit and transforming the economy to make it work for people and planet.

And we have added Chuka Umunna, Sarah Wollaston and Siobhan Benita, too.

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Broadcaster John Tusa backs the Lib Dems

The broadcaster and former Newsnight presenter John Tusa has declared his support for the Lib Dems…

I am British by citizenship, Czech by birth, European by culture, history and identity. The Lib Dems are the only party to believe in our continuing membership of the European Union. They are the only party not taken over by the extreme factions in national politics. They are the only non-sectarian party. They are the only party that puts the sovereignty of parliament at the heart of our representative democracy.

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21 November 2019 – the overnight press release

Lib Dems: Labour can’t keep their housing promises without EU workers

Responding to Labour’s council and social housing programme, Liberal Democrat Shadow Secretary for Housing, Communities and Local Government Tim Farron said:

It won’t be councils denying planning permission for new council homes under Labour, it will be Labour denying entry to the EU workers travelling here to build them.

10% of our construction industry workforce is made up of EU citizens, but – just like the Tories – Corbyn’s Labour has failed to back free movement from the EU. Under Labour, the workforce we rely on will no longer be available

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Liberal Democrats join in Transgender Day of Remembrance

One of the saddest days of he year for me is today, the annual Transgender Day of Remembrance, when we remember those transgender people who have lost their lives over the past year just for being who they are, who died as a result of anti-transgender violence.

You can read all their names, and the mostly brutal circumstances of their passing here. 

Jo Swinson marked the day by writing an article on the Lib Dem website:

Trans people can’t wait until it’s politically convenient for them to exist.

We need to sort this

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20 November 2019 – today’s other press release

Today’s big story has been, of course, the manifesto. But there was another story today…

Lib Dems will freeze rail fares and fix broken ticketing system

The Liberal Democrats have announced bold plans to freeze rail fares for commuters and season ticket holders for the next five years, while fixing the broken fares and ticketing system.

A Liberal Democrat government would cancel the 2.8% rail fare increase planned for December 2018 and freeze commuter fares and season tickets for the entirety of the next five years.

These proposals would save season ticket holders across the UK thousands of pounds. Projected savings for …

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WATCH: Jo Swinson launching the manifesto

Jo Swinson launched the Lib Dem manifesto today.

Here’s her speech:

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£10 billion for schools and 20,000 more teachers is an investment in our children’s future

Today, the Liberal Democrats will announce plans to spend £10 billion more a year on schools and hire 20,000 more teachers by the end of the next Parliament. This comes ahead of the Liberal Democrat manifesto launch later today.

A Liberal Democrat government will reverse frontline school cuts since 2015 with an emergency cash injection of £4.6 billion next year.

By 2024/25, the party will spend £10.6 billion more on schools than in 2019/20. This is more than the Conservatives have offered in every year of the Parliament.

Liberal Democrats will use this money to boost teaching numbers by 20,000 …

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19 November 2019 – today’s press releases

  • Johnson offers failed knife crime policies
  • Lib Dems respond to Farage comments on local Tory and Brexit Party deals
  • Swinson: ITV debate proves people at home deserve so much better
  • CCHQ’s Twitter factchecking ploy is straight of Putin’s playbook

Johnson offers failed knife crime policies

Responding to Boris Johnson’s announcement on knife crime, Liberal Democrat Shadow Chancellor Ed Davey said:

The UK is in the grip of an epidemic of serious violence, and we urgently need real solutions. Instead, all the Tories can offer are the same old failed policies.

These Conservative policies are all about seeming tough on crime, but they won’t actually do anything

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Lib Dems will invest £35 billion and stop Brexit to protect NHS

The Liberal Democrats have today set out their plans to protect the NHS, by stopping Brexit and investing an extra £35 billion in the health service and social care over the next five years.

The Liberal Democrats would raise £7 billion a year in additional revenue, ring-fenced for the NHS and social care services, by adding a penny on income tax. On top of this, the party has announced a £10 billion capital fund to upgrade equipment, ambulances, hospitals and other NHS buildings to bring them into the 21st Century.

The Liberal Democrats have also set out plans to tackle the severe …

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18 November 2019 – today’s press releases

  • Arcuri interview suggests Johnson abused his position as Mayor
  • Umunna: Repressive scenes in Hong Kong are ‘totally unacceptable’
  • Lib Dems: Leadsom shows Tories have no answers to key questions facing businesses
  • Swinson: Liberal Democrats will scrap business rates

Arcuri interview suggests Johnson abused his position as Mayor

Responding to Jennifer Arcuri’s interview on ITV last night, Liberal Democrat Shadow Culture Secretary Layla Moran said:

The evidence is mounting that the Prime Minister, the then mayor of London at the time, absolutely abused his position to forward the business interests of his friend Jennifer Arcuri. This flouts the very rules he was meant to uphold and is

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