Author Archives: Stephen Tall

Stephen was Editor (and Co-Editor) of Liberal Democrat Voice from 2007 to 2015, and writes at The Collected Stephen Tall. He writes a fortnightly column for ConservativeHome and 'The Underdog' column for Total Politics magazine. He edited the 2013 publication, The Coalition and Beyond: Liberal Reforms for the Decade Ahead, and is a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum. He was awarded the inaugural Lib Dem ‘Blogger of the Year’ prize in 2006, was a councillor for eight years in Oxford, including a year as Deputy Lord Mayor, and appears frequently in the media in person, in print and online. Stephen combines his political interests with his professional life as Development Director for the Education Endowment Foundation, though writes here in a personal capacity.

Pollwatch Day 30 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 26-29%, neck-and-neck with Labour, in final polls (UPDATED)

Okay, well this is it – the final polls of the campaign are published tonight. Here’s what’s in so far:

    YouGov in The Sun … CON 35%(nc), LAB 28%(-2), LIB DEM 28%(+4)
    Opinium in the Express … CON 35%(+2), LAB 27%(-1), LIB DEM 26%(-1)
    TNS BMRB … CON 33%(-1), LAB 27%(nc), LIB DEM 29%(-1)
    Populus in The Times … CON 37%(+1), LAB 28%(+1), LIB DEM 27%(-1)
    Angus Reid for PoliticalBetting.com … CON 36%(+1), LAB 24%(+1), LIB DEM 29%(nc)
    Harris in the Daily Mail … CON 35%(-1), LAB 29%(+3), LIB DEM 27%(-1)
    ICM in the Guardian … CON 36%(+3), LAB 28%(nc), LIB DEM 26%(-2)
    ComRes for the Indy/ITV …

Posted in General Election and Polls | 15 Comments

In case you need an incentive to keep working til the last possible minute …

Feet tired, aching, sore from so much delivery? Canvassed so much you’ve forgotten the candidate’s name (and you are the candidate)? Your home a tip, full of surplus leaflets and un-done housework?

In case you needed any further reason for keeping going til you drop for just one more day, here’s a reminder from polling firm ComRes’s Andrew Hawkins:

… some 38% of adults say that they may well change their mind before tomorrow. The party whose supporters are most fickle are the Lib Dems, making their impact especially hard to call.

Also of interest in this final poll is the

Posted in General Election | 5 Comments

Ways to get in touch with Lib Dem Voice on polling day

Lib Dem Voice will be providing as comprehensive as possible a results service on the night of 6th May, right through into Friday.

We’ll bring you the latest news, tweets, photos, reaction etc as soon as we have it, and for as long as we’re awake. You can also follow us on Twitter or via Facebook.

Our best source of information about how the Lib Dems are faring up and down the country will be you, our readers. Please let us have your latest titbits and tips no matter where you are in the UK.

You can contact us in …

Posted in General Election | 1 Comment

Place your guesses now – the LDV General Election prediction competition

With just over 12 hours until polls open, it’s time to launch the LDV election prediction competition to our readers: enough of the speculating it’s time to pin your colours to the mast. What do you think will happen in the 2010 general election on 6th May?

All you have to do to be crowned LDV’s 2010 soothsayer is give your answers to the following four questions:

    1. What will be the shares of the popular UK vote recorded by the three main parties in the general election?

    2. How many Lib Dem MPs will be elected?

    3. Who will be Prime Minister at

Posted in General Election | 46 Comments

The 2010 Election: politicians and voters united in deferring the reality of savage cuts

Cross-posted from the International Business Times:

If I were one of the legions of undecided waverers up and down the country still making up my mind who to vote for I would feel just a little cheated by this election campaign.

For almost four weeks the politicians from all three major parties have argued and debated and discussed, but still none has answered the fundamental question: how is the UK going to cut the deficit over the course of the next parliament?

For sure, all have talked a good game. Lib Dems, Labour and Tories have all declared that their …

Posted in General Election and Op-eds | 4 Comments

Where’s the British Jon Stewart?

I don’t think even our most politically obsessed reader would be able to complain about the quantity of election coverage over the past month. Quality’s another issue, of course – and yes I am looking at you BBC1’s This Week, with your ridiculous Abbott and Portillo pantomime.

But there is one area where this election has found TV severely lacking: intelligent political comedy.

True, there’s Have I Got News For You, still (amazingly) fresh and funny after 21 years on screen. But such has been the pace of this election campaign, that its weekly appearances have nearly always been playing …

Posted in General Election and Op-eds | 17 Comments

Labour split on tactical voting advice to supporters

Labour embarked on an odd campaigning trick yesterday. Two of Labour’s most senior (and tribally partisan) figures – Ed Balls and Peter Hain – called publicly on Labour voters to lend their support to the Lib Dems in those seats where the choice is Lib Dem or Tory. It’s inconceible that Ed Balls in particular would do so without the explicit consent of Gordon Brown.

In public Gordon Brown makes the case for a “maximum Labour vote” – how could he do otherwise as party leader? Yet the mixed signals will have given their cue to many Labour …

Posted in General Election | Tagged , , , and | 4 Comments

Pollwatch Day 29 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 24-28% in today’s polls

Three polls published tonight:

    ComRes for Indy/ITV … CON 37%(nc), LAB 29%(nc), LIB DEM 26%(nc)
    YouGov in the Sun … CON 35%(nc), LAB 30%(+2), LIB DEM 24%(-4)
    Harris in Metro … CON 36%(+4), LAB 26%(+1), LIB DEM 28%(-2)

What to make of those? The YouGov poll is the least good news for the Lib Dems, showing a sharp 4% drop in support. It’s hard to see anything that’s happened in the last 24 hours triggering such a sudden dip, so this may turn out to be an outlier caused perhaps by the difficulties of polling over a bank holiday weekend. Of course, it may …

Posted in General Election and Polls | 22 Comments

Lib Dem donation figures in full (Q1, 2010). Make today the day you donate.

The Electoral Commission has today published the latest donation and borrowing figures for the political parties, showing that the Lib Dems raised just over £1.9 million in the first three months of this year. Below is the full breakdown of cash and non-cash donations received by quarter since 2005, and annually between 2001 and 2004.

By comparison, the party raised £3.7m in the first quarter of 2005 (leading up to that year’s general election) – but that did of course include that £2.4m donation from Michael Brown. If we exclude that one-off donation, which had to be spent immediately under the terms of the gift agreement, the Lib Dems have raised considerably more this time around.

Our figures are of course dwarfed by the Tories and Labour fundraising among their friends in big business and the trade unions. Labour has raised £3.6m during this election campaign alone, the Tories a further £4.43m. The Lib Dems: £200k. And yet our party is level-pegging with Labour in the polls, and just a notch or two behind the Tories. You want to know which party genuinely understands the concept of value-for-money? Go figure.

Posted in General Election and News | Tagged and | 1 Comment

Stephen Fry urges a vote for Lib Dem MP Evan Harris

Stephen Fry, once a staunch Labour supporter, has already dropped hints during this election campaign that he’s thinking of voting Lib Dem … After the rightwing press’s desperate smear tirade at the height of ‘Cleggmania’ he declared “Frankly I’m tempted to vote Lib Dem now. If we let the Telegraph and Mail win, well, freedom and Britain die.”

Well, Mr Fry didn’t quite make it onto the Lib Dems’ list of celebrity endorsements announced yesterday, but he has thrown his weight fully behind one Lib Dem, Oxford West and Abingdon’s Dr Evan Harris. Neil Fawcett’s Liberal Dose blog quotes …

Posted in General Election | Tagged , and | 4 Comments

Would Ed Balls vote for the Lib Dems’ Norman Lamb?

That seems to be the implication of Labour’s education secretary’s interview in the New Statesman, where he says:

For Balls, defeating the Tories is the top priority. Given this, what is his advice to Lib Dem supporters in the 100 or so Tory-Labour marginals? “I urge Lib Dem voters to bite their lip and back us.” But what about Labour supporters in Tory-Lib Dem marginals? “I always want the Labour candidate to win, but I recognise there’s an issue in places like North Norfolk, where my family live, where Norman Lamb is fighting the Tories, who are in second

Posted in General Election | Tagged and | 9 Comments

Pollwatch Day 28 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 26-28% in today’s polls

Thre polls published tonight:

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 35%(+1) LAB 28% (nc) LIB DEM 28% (-1)
    Opinium in the Express … CON 33%(-1), LAB 28%(+3), LIB DEM 27%(-1)
    ComRes for the Indy/ITV … CON 37%(-1), LAB 29%(+1), LIB DEM 26%(+1)

And one other poll by a non-BPC polling companies, with figures as follows:

    RNB Research … CON 37%, LAB 28%, LIB DEM 26%

Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ shows:

    CON 35%, LAB 27%, LIB DEM 28%

With the Tories just 7-8% ahead of the Lib Dems and Labour, David Cameron will be pinning his hopes on his party out-performing their rivals …

Posted in General Election and Polls | 24 Comments

The LDV Bank Holiday Monday caption competition – the “Nick Clegg meets Tardis” edition

There’s no prize at stake – just the opportunity to prove you’re wittier than any other LDV reader …


(Photo: Alex Folkes).

Here’s Nick Clegg campaigning with the Lib Dems’ Manchester Withington MP John Leech at a primary school – but what do you reckon Nick’s saying, or the kids (or John) are thinking?

The winner of our most recent caption competition, the “David Cameron sucks bitter lemon” edition – according to The Voice’s judging panel of one – was this one by Jen.

Posted in Caption Comp | Tagged and | 16 Comments

Today’s Lib Dem Flashmobs – a planned, spontaneous, orderly uprising. All very liberal.

LDV reported on Saturday that the independent Lib Dem Facebook fan group LibDem2010.com – now numbering well over 163,000 members – had hit upon the idea of organising ‘Flashmobs’ up and down the country to demonstrate the support for Nick Clegg’s party.

Well, here’s the result from Trafalgar Square, where scores of Cleggites actually followed through with the idea to spontaneously chant “I agree with Nick”.

LibDem2010.com’s creator Ben Stockman posted the following message of thanks to those supporters who made it happen:

Ben Stockman … personally thanks all of the people that rocked up to Trafalgar Square earlier to make our flashmob such a success, and an even bigger thanks to all those people who then went to various local constituencies to campaign on behalf of their local candidates. x

To get a flavour of what actually transpired in Trafalgar Square today, enjoy the following Flashmob video:

Posted in General Election | Tagged and | 7 Comments

LDVideo: Right Said Fred’s Lib Dem Party anthem 2010

All together now:

Give us a shot, cos we’re sick of this lot … Are you all tired of the norm? Well now is the time for reform … Cameron and Brown, well take a look at ’em now, We’re going to rock those cats out of town”

Posted in YouTube | 3 Comments

3 to see: Lib Dem #GE2010 campaign coverage (3/5/10)

Pushed for time, but want to keep up-to-date with how the campaign’s going? Here are today’s must-reads …

Clegg’s journey to the promised land (The Independent)
A profile of Nick Clegg’s campaign:

… when he arrives at Oxford Brookes University the hundreds of students packing the hall greet him, if not like a rock idol, with an excitement seldom, if ever, generated by a British politician in these times. The journalists squeezed into the front of the bus include two senior German correspondents urged by their offices to explain the Clegg phenomenon. … It is as if Clegg realises, at least subconsciously,

Posted in General Election | Leave a comment

Pollwatch Day 27 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 28/29% in today’s polls, as Tory support slips

Two polls published tonight:

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 34%(-1) LAB 28% (+1) LIB DEM 29% (+1)
    ICM in the Guardian … CON 33%(-3), LAB 28%(-1), LIB DEM 28%(+1)

So, after the excitement of today’s rightwing press salivating at the inevitable Tory election victory to come, we’re back to where we were at the end of last week … the Tories at c.33%, and Lib Dems and Labour tussling it out for second place on 28-29%, firmly back in hung parliament territory.

Of course, these results may be quirks, and none of us knows how far to trust polls published over the …

Posted in General Election and Polls | 8 Comments

Top of the Blogs: The Golden Dozen #167

Welcome to the Golden Dozen, and our 167th weekly round-up from the Lib Dem blogosphere … Featuring the seven most popular stories according to click-throughs from the Aggregator (25th April – 1st May, 2010), together with a hand-picked quintet, normally courtesy of LibDig, you might otherwise have missed.

Don’t forget: you can now sign up to receive the Golden Dozen direct to your email inbox – just click here – ensuring you never miss out on the best of Lib Dem blogging.

As ever, let’s start with the most popular post, and work our way down:

Posted in Best of the blogs | 1 Comment

The YouGov poll which shows Nick Clegg won the third TV debate

An interesting snippet from today’s Sunday Times reporting the latest YouGov tracker poll conducted on Friday and Saturday among nearly 1,500 voters showed that “Nick Clegg narrowly won the debate overall”.

You won’t find the figures in the paper’s report (and I can’t find them on the YouGov site) but the Times’s Samuel Coates reports that Clegg was judged to have most impressed by 35% of voters, compared with 32% for David Cameron.

Separately the paper also reports that Clegg continues to enjoy high personal popularity ratings:

A YouGov poll of nearly 1,500 people shows that the Liberal Democrat’s

Posted in Polls | Tagged , and | 11 Comments

Tory tax priorities: spend £6 billion on the wealthiest 0.8% in the UK

Small wonder that Tory leader David Cameron publicly rowed back on his inheritaance tax cut for millionaires in last week’s televised debate – Lib Dem research released today shows the Tories’ promise would:

  • cost £6bn over the course of the next Parliament;
  • is aimed at the wealthiest 0.8% of estates in the UK; and
  • would benefit 3,000 of the wealthiest estates in the country every year by almost £250,000

As Vince Cable points out:

At a time when the gap between the richest and poorest is so great, it beggars belief that David Cameron wants to give the

Posted in General Election | Tagged , , and | 5 Comments

Pollwatch Day 26 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 25-29% in today’s polls

Four polls published tonight:

    YouGov in the S.Times … CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-1), LIB DEM 28%(nc)
    ComRes/ for the S.Mirror/S.Independent … CON 38%(+2), LAB 28%(-1), LIB DEM 25%(-1)
    ICM in the S.Telegraph … CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(+1), LIB DEM 27%(-3)
    Angus Reid in the S.Express … CON 35%(+2), LAB 23%(nc), LIB DEM 29%(-1)

These are an improved set of polls for the Tories, all showing a slight boost, perhaps helped by the favourable media coverage of David Cameron in the final televised debate. The Lib Dems have dropped slightly in three polls, and seem consistently to be in the high 20%s, ahead of Labour …

Posted in Polls | 15 Comments

Clegg in the (Lib Dem-supporting) Guardian: “We have taken Labour’s place in UK politics”

Today’s Guardian carries an in-depth interview with Nick Clegg (it’s labelled ‘Exclusive’, which seems a rather optimistic boast during an election campaign when the Lib Dem leader gives interviews every day).

Much of what he says will be familiar to readers of his pamphlet, The Liberal Moment, in which Nick made clear that the Tories are our opponents, Labour our rivals. But it may come as a pleasurable surprise for those progressive voters still wavering between Labour and the Lib Dems.

Here are some of Clegg’s quotes:

On the Tories:

What is striking is despite all the blather from Cameron

Posted in General Election | Tagged | 10 Comments

LDV doesn’t do statporn, but if we did (April ‘10)

… We’d say a big thank you to the 114,614 ‘absolute unique visitors’* who read Liberal Democrat Voice in April.

That’s DOUBLE our March 2010 figure of c.57,000, and we are up some 270% on the equivalent figure for April ’09 … anyone would think there was an election on.

This brings our absolute unique visitor readership for the last year to date (1 May 2009 – 30 April 2010) to 421,146, over 67% higher than the equivalent figure for 2008-09 of 251,110.

The 5 top-read stories during the month were:

1. The flow diagram which shows you who

Posted in Site news | Tagged | Leave a comment

Just imagine if you’d got over one million new poster sites

So today the Guardian officially, and surprisingly, came out in support of the Lib Dems for the coming general election. Most of us who are resolved to ‘Keep Calm & Clegg On’ are happy to recognise that newspaper endorsements – certainly by left-of-centre newspapers – do not swing elections.

But, equally, it would be wrong to dismiss the Grauniad’s conversion to the Lib Dem cause as irrelevant. For a start, it is the first time since 1974 that the paper has unreservedly supported the party. That alone is a real fillip to activists.

It’s good for morale, therefore. But …

Posted in General Election and Op-eds | 8 Comments

Another endorsement for the Lib Dems – this time from Liberal Conspiracy

Sunny Hundal, founding editor of the most influential left-of-centre blog Liberal Conspiracy, has just blogged his endorsement of the Lib Dems for the coming election:

After last night’s debate one thing really struck me. We on the left and many Labourites who are also on the left, fight against discrimination and marginalised people. This is why we attack the Tories for their homophobia and their flashes of racism.

But the way that both Labour and the Tories (the latter expected anyway) not only dismissed the idea of an amnesty, but actually dog-whistled throughout about how the Libdem plan would wreak havoc

Posted in General Election | Tagged and | 16 Comments

Pollwatch Day 25 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 28/32% in today’s polls. And are we headed for 120 MPs?

Two polls published tonight:

    Harris in the Daily Mail … CON 33%(+1), LAB 24%(-1), LDEM 32%(+2)
    YouGov in the Sun … CON 34%(nc), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 28%(nc)

No significant changes there, all within the margin of error; though certainly encouraging to see the Lib Dems still polling at c.30% of the vote, at least level with Labour, and potentially even gaining support. Let’s see what the weekend polls, which will also include public reaction to the final debate, have in store.

Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ is resolutely stuck at Con 34%, Lib Dem 29%, Lab 27%. Just five days’ …

Posted in General Election and Polls | 5 Comments

Kudos to Clegg: the TV debates wash-up

Three programmes, four-and-a-half hours of debate, endless analysis – but one thing’s for sure: Nick Clegg is alone among the three leaders in being able to reflect on them with real pleasure.

David Cameron and the Tories are buoyed by his performance yesterday; understandably so, as most instant polls called it a ‘win’ for him. But three weeks ago the Tories were polling in the 36-39% range, with most pundits predicting a narrow-but-decisive Tory majority. Currently, just a few days before polling day, the Tories are stuck in the 33-36% range.

Perhaps more significant, though is the way Cameron has had to re-write his script during this campaign. Tory advisors hoped it would be enough for their leader to portray himself as the only alternative to Gordon Brown. But then along came ‘Cleggmania’ and suddenly Cameron looked old hat: the mantle of change was snatched away from him by a more dynamic rival. With ratings dipping, the Tories’ answer was familiar enough: turn to the right.

And that’s exactly what Cameron has done. In the third debate last night, he showed the authentic face of Toryism: anti-European, anti-immigrant, anti-welfare. No wonder he looked more comfortable, and no wonder the Tory tribe was smiling today. At long last, their leader had ditched any pretence of building a big-tent mainstream party, and was reverting to the party’s comfort zone, shoring up its core vote.

But of this I am certain: that right-wing c.2005 Michael Howard display from Cameron last night was absolutely not where he wanted to be at this stage of the campaign.

Posted in General Election and Op-eds | Tagged , and | 6 Comments

Final debate polls put Cameron ahead, but floating voters choose Clegg

All the post-debate polls are in, and four out of five are giving David Cameron a win, with Clegg tied in first place in one, and in second place in three. Brown is last in all but one:

    YouGov: Cameron 41%, Clegg 32%, Brown 25%.
    ComRes: Cameron 35%, Clegg 33%, Brown 26%.
    Populus: Cameron 38%, Clegg 38%, Brown 25%.
    ICM: Cameron 35%, Clegg 27%, Brown 29%.
    Angus Reid: Cameron 36%, Clegg 30%, Brown 23%.

Well, I guess seeing as Clegg was judged to have won the first two debates it was only fair that Cameron should have a consolation prize 🙂

For me, it was a score draw, and I do wonder how far the narrow win for Cameron in the post-debate polls reflects more settled party preferences. As Andrew Rawnsley tweeted:

Early post-debate polls (DC 1, NC 2, GB 3) reflecting party positions in national polls. Minds being made up?

It was certainly a better, more convincing performance from Cameron than in his first (disastrous) performance, or his second improved debate. Brown was less good tonight than in earlier debates – relatively speaking, I mean – less empathetic, more dogmatic, still just as tired.

Clegg was under attack far more than in the first debate, but withstood the pressure well; his continuing calls for parties to work together better resonates with the public far more than it does with cynical politicos and hacks.

Posted in General Election and Polls | Tagged | 46 Comments

Pollwatch Day 23 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 26-31% in today’s polls

Three national opinion polls published tonight:

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 34%(+1), LAB 27%(-2), LIB DEM 31%(+3)
    Harris in Metro … CON 32%(-2), LAB 25%(-1), LIB DEM 30%(+1)
    ComRes for ITV/ITN … CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 26%(-3)

The ComRes poll, though the last officially to be published, was the first I heard about (under embargo) – it’s fair to say, I had a slight sinking feeling in my stomach: was this the end of the Lib Dem surge? Well, it may be: but significantly two other polls show the party still at 30% or more. We should remember all the flucutations reported …

Posted in Polls | 19 Comments

Peter Tatchell: Greens should vote Lib Dem to unseat Labour and Tories

Pink News reports that LDV’s Liberal Voice of the Year Peter Tatchell has urged Green supporters to vote tactically for the Lib Dems where Nick Clegg’s party is best placed to unseat Labour or Tories:

Former Green Party candidate and gay rights activist Peter Tatchell has called for Green supporters to vote for the Liberal Democrats in certain seats. … He told PinkNews.co.uk today that he was not a Lib Dem supporter but the party promises to change the “corrupt” voting system.

Mr Tatchell, who emphasised he was speaking in a personal capacity, said: “On May 6th, Labour could come

Posted in General Election | Tagged , , and | 17 Comments
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