Category Archives: Op-eds

Drugs – the risk of taking the wrong approach – Part 2

Continuing where we left off yesterday, let’s look at some of the other proposals in Policy Paper 47.

Those who work in the criminal justice system know that the ‘simple’ possession offence is the one that comes most often before the criminal courts, and Class B is frequently the most common because it covers cannabis, easily the most ‘popular’ of drugs. I can count on one hand (maybe slight hyperbole) the number of people who have said “yes, I had that drug for supply”. It is always for ‘personal use’ and if that’s the case, how do you prosecute those people if personal use is legal? People could legitimately stockpile large quantities for their own use, or cultivate it, and it would be extraordinarily difficult to prove supply without further intelligence gathering – the very expenditure that this policy paper suggests is inefficient.

The policy paper suggests that a policy of imposing imprisonment for simple possession should be avoided. The situation must have changed since 2001 because anyone – probably everyone – who works in the criminal justice system today will tell you that unless they are charged with dozens of offences, defendants do not receive imprisonment for simple possession. These offences are most usually dealt with by way of a fine and forfeiture and destruction of the drug. I can honestly say, in years of working in the field, I have never seen someone given imprisonment for a simple possession offence where that is the only offence before the court.

Conversely, the policy advocates a zero-tolerance policy on drug driving. That has been overtaken by changes in legislation, as there are now legal limits for drugs use when driving. However, it is hard to imagine reconciling a “use as you see fit” policy on drugs with an “absolutely not” policy on drug driving. People typically do not realise how long drugs stay in the system as they metabolise and I can easily foresee scenarios where people are charged with drug driving and plead not guilty, arguing the government has said they can use drugs, and they didn’t know it was still in their system. This will only pour fuel on the fire of the court backlog issue. This would perhaps be manageable only if, as the policy paper suggests, more was poured into drug awareness and education.

At one point the paper suggests imposing a public policy instruction that it isn’t in the public interest to prosecute certain drugs offences. The drafters of this policy clearly didn’t appreciate the role of the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS), and the role of the legislature. If you don’t want something to be prosecuted, you repeal the offence. You do not try and dictate what the CPS – an arms-length, independent prosecuting agency – does and does not prosecute. Down that road lies madness and a corruption of the role of both the government and the prosecuting agencies. 

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Tom Arms’ World Review

United States

Trump’s run of good luck continues. It seems likely that all but one of his cabinet nominations will be confirmed by the Senate. Congressman Matt Gaetz was the longest of long shots for Attorney General. The Ethics Committee investigation into his drug-fuelled sex antics ruled him out.

Fox News presenter Pete Hesgeth was also expected to fail in his bid to become America’s next Secretary of Defense. A seedy past and lack of experience worked against him. But Hesgeth put up a good show against tough questioning from the Democratic members of the Senate Armed Services Committee. There is nothing the Republican senators like more than a conservative who successfully fights his corner. He is expected to be confirmed on Tuesday.

The same with Pam Bondi who replaced Matt Gaetz as Trump’s choice for Attorney General. Ms Bondi sort of mollified senators when she denied that there was a “enemies list” compiled of people Trump wants prosecuted. But she then qualified this by refusing to rule out taking action against Jack Smith, the Special Prosecutor appointed to investigate the president-elect.

Smith, for his part, is clearly angry that he will not be able to drag Donald Trump into court. This week he released a partially redacted set of documents which clearly stated that if Trump had not been elected president he would be seeing his tailor for an orange onesie. The documents claimed that Trump was guilty of election interference, disrupting an official proceeding of Congress, stealing and hiding classified documents and, almost certainly, trying to overthrow the US government.

Jack Smith is, according to FBI nominee, Kash Patel, at the top of his “enemies list”. Patel has yet to be questioned by a Senate Committee, but he has publicly said that there is an enemy list. Patel, however, will be reporting to Pam Bondi.

Trump meanwhile has insisted that there is a “patriot’s list.” That is an unidentified number of people who were prosecuted for invading the Capitol Building on January 6, 2020. He has promised that he will pardon them. He does not need the assistance of Patel or Bondi to do so. He just needs a pen and paper.

Russia

They call it hybrid warfare. Russia is becoming a master practitioner across Europe and beyond. It involves, misinformation campaigns, cyberattacks espionage and sabotage of military facilities and critical infrastructure, damaging undersea pipelines and electricity cables and interfering in democratic elections.

This week Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that the Russians were even plotting to blow up airliners, “not just against Poland, but against airlines across the globe,” he insisted.

Meanwhile the German government this week ordered police and the air force to shoot down the growing number of drones flying over German and American military bases and critical infrastructure. The Interior Minister said they were suspected of sabotage and espionage.

But the most disturbing incidents have involved undersea cables and pipelines in the Baltic. They carry gas supplies, electricity, 95 percent of the internet traffic and $10 trillion worth of annual financial transactions.

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Drugs – the risk of taking the wrong approach – Part 1

As a solicitor working in the field of criminal law, I see people charged with offences involving controlled drugs every day.  There are many offences, but to name just some:

  • Possession with intent to supply
  • Being concerned in the supply
  • Cultivation
  • Driving under the influence of drugs
  • Fraudulent evasion of a prohibition on importing/exporting a controlled drug
  • Supply (and intent to supply) psychoactive substances

And of course, the one everyone is most familiar with, the offence of simply being in possession of a controlled drug.

The Law

The law on controlled drugs is quite simple and codified in the Misuse of Drugs Act 1971. I won’t go into it in much detail, but it might be an interesting read for those not already familiar. 

For those unfamiliar with the way courts in England & Wales sentence cases, the sentencing bench (whether that’s a bench of magistrates or a District Judge in the Magistrates’ Court, or a Circuit Judge in the Crown Court) are assisted by sentencing guidelines. Drugs offences come under various different headings, but the guidelines helpfully include a search function, and searching “drug” brings many of them up (hopefully this link will assist).

Liberal Democrat Policy

The 2024 manifesto has a section on Crime and Policing, but does not touch on the party’s policy regarding drugs. However, Policy Paper 47 is based entirely around the policy and offers some interesting perspectives and suggestions. Published in 2001, many of the suggestions have now been outstripped by advances in the law, but I believe – and may well be proven wrong – it remains the most complete policy proposal drafted. On speaking to Liberal Democrats over the years it seems to me that many would support the policies contained within.

I’ve included above a link to the policy paper. To name just a few of the suggestions, we have:

  • Implementing a policy of non-prosecution for possession, cultivation for own use, and social supply of cannabis. This would not involve repealing the offence but would involve a public policy declaration that it is not in the public interest to prosecute these types of offences.
  • Re-classifying cannabis as a Class C drug and permitting medicinal use of cannabis derivatives.
  • Ending imprisonment as a punishment for possession of a Class B or Class C drug, where it was for personal use.

All of these suggestions, and the rest, are said to come with many benefits, primarily:

  • Reducing the impact of drug-related crime on law-abiding citizens
  • Encouraging more “problem” drug users to come forward for treatment, without fear of being stigmatised
  • Increasing the resources available for, and the credibility of, drugs education.

My Response

In my view this policy paper, and subsequent suggestions that the Liberal Democrats should be the party of legalisation, is wrong. I do not doubt the motives or beliefs of those who support legislation, but in my view, legalisation takes us down the wrong path.

The statistics are obviously quite old now, but it was suggested in the late 1990s that the number of “hard” drug addicts (i.e., those using Class A drugs, like crack cocaine) had risen to 270,000, and the size of the drugs market in 1998 was estimated at £6.6 billion (then 0.66% of GDP). The suggestion in the paper is that the policy of criminalising drug use – especially for personal use – was disproportionate and when the figures were balanced (62% of spending then went on prosecutions, as opposed to only 25% of education) the policy clearly favoured criminalisation above everything else. This, the paper suggested, was forcing drug-users to hardened criminals for supply and away from possible education and support resources. All of this, in turn, would only drive drug use up.

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Observations of an Expat: Gaza Ceasefire

They were celebrating in Gaza City when the ceasefire was announced on Wednesday. Men, women and children ran into the streets to shout, cry and pray.

Then the Israeli bombs started to fall again. 110 more Palestinians died. Shortly afterwards it was announced that a last-minute hiccup had delayed Israeli cabinet approval. Will the ceasefire hold?

The deal is the result of constant 24/7 negotiations brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the US. The bones of the agreement were announced by Biden in May. Benjamin Netanyahu, however, rejected it at the time.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden can both take a share of the credit. Biden for negotiating the deal and winning UN backing. Trump for saying he would back what Biden parleyed. It was a rare moment of cross-party foreign policy-making and undercut Netanyahu’s hopes of a better agreement from Donald Trump.

The ceasefire itself is in three clear phases. Phase one is due to start on Sunday and last six weeks. It involves the partial withdrawal of Israeli forces; an increased flow of humanitarian aid and the release of some Palestinian prisoners.

Phase two—also six weeks long—calls for the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. The return of all remaining live hostages and the release of more Palestinian prisoners and “the return to a sustainable calm.”

Phase three is the start of the reconstruction of Gaza. The return of the bodies of an estimated 32 dead hostages and the release of more Palestinian prisoners. The US, Egypt and Qatar are all committed to ensuring that both sides comply and that the ceasefire goes well beyond the first few months and becomes the basis of further agreements.

But there are a host of hurdles at which ceasefire could fall. Possibly the biggest is opposition from the Religious Zionist Party led by Finance Minister Ben Smotrich. He has said he would vote against the ceasefire unless there is a clear commitment to resume fighting once all the hostages are released. He said: “Our continued presence in the government depends on the absolute certainty of resuming the war with full force.”

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The Green Book podcast

For those who, like me, prefer to absorb information, arguments, proposals and inspiration from reading print rather than listening to podcasts I present below what I believe to be the key points from the Green Book podcast featured on LDV on  Wednesday 15th January, in which  Chris Bowers chairs contributions from Layla Moran, Lynne Featherstone and Timothy Garton Ash.

  1. An important feature of Liberalism is its (our?) capacity for self-criticism.
  2. Fundamental to Liberalism is to place limits on ALL forms of power.
  3. Over the centuries in the West Liberalism has had considerable success in placing limits on public power.
  4. However, especially in recent years, we’re failing to limit private power. (eg Musk and the tech companies, fossil-fuel lobbyists, newspaper owners, et al.)
  5. Aspects of both “neo” Liberalism and “woke” Liberalism have caused large sections of the electorates to stop listening to us.

“Neo” liberalism because the economic gains have gone largely to the “already haves” and not improved the lots of the “ordinary working family.”

“Woke ” liberalism, with its laudable concerns for the fair treatment and respect for the feelings of eg  people of colour, the disabled, gays, lesbians etc., tend to make the white working class, especially the men (defined vividly by American commentator  Tucker Carlsen “people  who can actually change a flat tyre”) feel that Liberals “are concerned about everyone but me.”

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Hope is not just desirable, it could be the key to defeating populism!

They say that to be a Liberal you have to be an incorrigible optimist. Yet, even with a record number of Lib Dem MPs, it’s hard to be optimistic in a global political environment witnessing the onward march of populism. 

But what if discovering a seam of hope and optimism and representing it in British politics was in fact the best way of countering the rise of populism? With a tired and irresponsible government making way after 14 years for a new administration with an awful inheritance that’s made some errors in its first few months, it’s difficult to see where any optimism is going to come from. Then again, if any is to emerge, it’s likely to be from that optimistic creed known as Liberalism.

That is the underlying premise behind the latest in the series of Green Book podcasts, which has seen discussions among leading liberal figures on a range of subjects. For the series’ first post-election podcast, the subject was the less easily defined issue of ‘hope and optimism’, and the discussion brought together the Lib Dem health select committee chair Layla Moran, the former minister Lynne Featherstone, and the professor of history and liberalism Timothy Garton Ash, with me as moderator.

Again hosted by LibDem Podcasts, listen in to their discussion on all the main platforms or watch here: 

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Elon Musk’s X ownership amplifies the far-right agenda in Britain and beyond

Embed from Getty Images

Since billionaire Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter, the platform has become a stage for amplifying far-right views, sparking widespread concern across the political landscape. Musk is far from a free-speech absolutist. He frequently bans accounts because they criticise him and praises authoritarian leaders. Musk’s interventions, both direct and through the accounts he boosts (and his alt-account he uses to praise himself), have elevated controversial far-right groups.

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Candidates – a route to fixing a recurring problem

The Farron Review is an excellent piece of work, the east option as a party would have been to paint a glowing image of success following our General Election. Yet the review does not shy away from asking some difficult questions of our structures and what we can improve going forward.

The main area singled out for criticism is our candidates process. At the moment, our candidates process is that people who wish to stand for any office above that of a local councillor, must attend and pass, an approval day (think grad scheme assessment day). Once they have done so they are on the list of approved candidates and can put their name forward for any seat that advertises.

In addition to this, if someone wishes to stand for a body such as the London Assembly, or as a Police and Crime Commissioner, they must first pass the Westminster approval day, then take a conversion test to become an approved candidate for that body.

In England, this entire process is run by the English Party, leading to an extraordinary concentration of power in the hands of very few people. In Scotland and Wales, the state parties have control over their selection processes particularly for Holyrood and Cardiff Bay.

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From Labour Council Chair to proud Lib Dem: How Labour forced me out

Three hours before the deadline for General Election nominations on June 7th, 2024, I resigned as a Labour councillor and as Chair of the Bromsgrove Labour Party. I stood as an independent parliamentary candidate, secured 1561 votes, while Labour lost by 3016 votes to the Conservatives. I have since joined the Lib Dems as I explain below, and we are now the main opposition on Bromsgrove District Council.

Why did I leave the Labour Party and stand against its official candidate?  I had poured my heart and soul into leading the Labour Party in Bromsgrove, transforming it from a gathering that struggled to reach quorum (with fewer than five attendees in 2021) to a team of eight dedicated councillors within three years. Throughout my tenure as a councillor, I earned the respect and trust of all political parties in Bromsgrove, culminating in a unanimous vote to chair the council for a second term in May 2024, just before the General Election was called.

The decision to resign from Labour weighed on me heavily, but the Party had behaved in a very undemocratic way, and after deep reflection, I knew I had to leave.  The local party had been trying to appoint me as its candidate for some time and had been pressing the National Executive Committee (NEC) for action. But on 24 May, it received an email from HQ announcing that Neena Gill, a former MEP, was to be the candidate. I received a phone call the following day from a member of the NEC from which I gathered that I had failed the “due diligence test”. When I pressed for the report, they told me it might be shared after the elections, but not before. I saw this as an affront to the democratic process that denied me the opportunity to understand the basis of their rejection. I submitted a data access request after the General Election, but I was not allowed to see it. 

During my time as a councillor, I had focussed very much on local issues but, following Israel’s war on Gaza, I started to post and write about Palestine, including the ICJ ruling, and my father’s harrowing story of ethnic cleansing in Jerusalem in the Nakba of 1948. It became clear to me in the days after the nomination fiasco that this is what had upset people in the higher echelons of Labour who are/were keen to suppress pro-Palestinian voices and who were probably uncomfortable to discover that my father was Palestinian. 

Initially, local councillors tried to persuade Gill to step aside and called on the Party to reconsider its decision.  But then, twenty-four hours before my resignation, all councillors but two were photographed championing the parachuted candidate.

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Public transport in the United Kingdom – why do we accept poor performance?

Reading Michal Siewniak’s interesting article on public transport provision, I stopped to think more generally about public transport in this great country of ours. Specifically, I thought about the rail network.

I use the train almost every weekday. As a resident in Greater Manchester who works in Cheshire – and doesn’t drive – I rely on the trains to get me to and from work. I’m up early in the morning, and my departure from work is usually timed around when the next available train should be.

I say should be, because we all know the situation as far as train provision in this country goes. An analysis of National Rail data in 2023 should that almost half of trains across Britain were at least one minute late. Between 1st January and 31st July 2023, 3% of trains were cancelled and only 56% of trains were on time. By 9th November 2024, the number of train delays and cancellations had continued to rise; 368,843 were cancelled on the day and a further 33,209 cancellations were classed as “pre-cancelled” i.e., cancelled by 10pm the previous evening.

I do sometimes just sit and wonder – how did we let it get this way? Whilst many of us have become regular users of the various delay repay schemes, why have we gotten to a position where that is the norm? if one were to travel to many European and Asian countries, the thought of public transport – and trains in particular – being regularly delayed or cancelled mortifies the operator. In the United Kingdom, however, we seem to have just come to accept the provision of an extremely poor and unreliable service as the norm.

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Welcome to my day: 13 January 2025 – doubt, faith, the Liberal Democrats and me

I took in a movie at the weekend and, somewhat unusually, I was given reason to ponder about my liberalism and what I do to aid its cause. “Conclave” is a film based on a fictional selection of a new Pope and, whilst not wanting to give anything away, from the perspective of a Catholic Liberal Democrat Returning Officer, I was reminded of many of the dilemmas that I face in that role and in my wider “liberal bureaucracy”.

I am by no means an active Catholic. I feel vaguely guilty about that, but not so guilty as to do anything about it, although I am usually moved to light a candle when visiting a Cathedral and thinking about my rather more devout grandmother. One of my qualms about the Catholic Church as an institution is its bureaucracy (ironic, really) and a sense that it has rather lost sight of its calling. But I acknowledge that it has a potentially significant role in the world and that its influence on how its followers are supposed to lead their lives cannot be easily disregarded.

And a papal conclave is, from the perspective of a seasoned Returning Officer like myself, utterly fascinating and in many ways little different from the election of a Party Leader, with conservatives against radicals, regional power blocs, all against a backdrop of external commentary and conjecture. Being in charge of the process can sometimes feel a bit lonely, especially in some of the more challenging selections. You may see behaviour that troubles you but, as an independent arbiter of the rules, what responsibility do you have for addressing that? Sometimes, candidates behave towards you, or their competitors, in ways that can be very testing. I have from time to time felt under great stress but, I think, it goes with the territory. With power comes responsibility, and if that doesn’t worry you, you’re almost certainly not a good person to be given either.

But for me, the concept of certainty was the aspect that challenges me most. I am, it must be admitted, not a “retail politician”, and find the idea of saying ” this is something, and if we do it, it will make your life better” slightly absurd. I trained, in part, as a statistician, and my day job requires me to make judgements based on what can often be limited data. There is often little certainty to be had there.

Modern politics leaves little room for the doubtful or unsure, with its increasing “fifteen second soundbite” mentality which encourages bold statements regardless of whether they’re actually based on anything credible. The idea that a politician might be interviewed and say “we think that this will work” rather than “this will make things better” is for the birds. And that leaves me as a slightly uncomfortable participant in the political process.

That’s why I’m a strong believer in the ‘political guardrails’ that have managed our politics for so long and campaigns to make them more robust, such as spending and donation limits, press freedom (and responsibility), independent regulators. Just as our rights protect us from the power of an overmighty state, rules that diffuse political power and prevent super-wealthy individuals from distorting our political debate are a critical part of a participatory, inclusive democracy. It’s also why my roles in the Party have traditionally been those that free up others to do the campaigning and policy stuff, because few people enter politics to manage the minutiae of organisational bureaucracy.

It is, indeed, one of the reasons why I continue as a member of the Liberal Democrat Voice editorial team, enabling the existence of a platform where Liberal Democrat members and supporters can discuss ideas and debate the issues of the day in a courteous and mutually respectful manner. Call me old-fashioned and or rather naïve, if you like.

So, today, we offer, apart from the usual coverage of press releases, pieces on transport policy and on joining the Liberal Democrats, and a response from a member of the party’s Federal Board to the General Election Review published yesterday. There may be other stuff too, but I’ll let that be a surprise.

And finally, it is apparently National Rubber Ducky Day and so, to mark that, here is Little Richard, singing his own tribute…

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General election review first thoughts

So the General Election review is out. See my earlier post for the basics and some thoughts on the rejection of the idea of a “progressive alliance.”

As promised here are my initial thoughts and I’d welcome yours in the comments.

This was much easier reading than previous reviews given that we had done well. So often, we’ve spent our General Elections waiting for something to go horribly wrong and for once, it didn’t.

I found some very sensible acknowledgements of the factors that worked and recommendations for the future. I loved the way that the recommendations were organised into Continue, Build and Address.

Tim Farron’s foreword was very clear about the current political environment and talked of our role as the antidote to populism in way that will resonate with many of us:

The antidote is to build deep relationships with our communities, to serve them at an immersive level, to ‘keep in touch and get things done’, to win trust and to continually earn it. There is no human silver bullet to deal with the evil that is seeping into western politics, but we Liberal Democrats have found the closest thing to it. If we are to defend our country against the rise in populism, we will do so by forensically loving and serving our neighbours so that they do not feel the need to reject ‘the system’ and opt for the extremists.

So,

The good

It was good to be reminded of the four years of foundation building we did to get the result we achieved, how everyone worked together across regions and states to build strong local campaigns and how they prepared the next generation of MPs.

Singled out for praise, deservedly, were Mike Dixon, CEO; Dave McCobb, Director of Field Campaigns; Rhiannon Leaman, Chief of Staff to the leader; and, Olly Grender, Director of Communications.

But why?

It is our observation that they did this by avoiding the usual pitfalls that
other small, senior teams have been criticised for in past reviews, e.g the ‘Wheelhouse’ executive in 2015 or the inner team in 2019; namely: group-think, a lack of accountability and transparency and failing to take others with them.

Instead, interviewees were unanimous and generous in their praise of this team for their openness to challenge, the forthright and regular internal communications with the various party structures and the membership more broadly and the way in which they secured and built a cohesive one=party approach from very early on.

Such a list is always going to be short. I know we will all have people we want to add in. From a Scottish perspective, our outgoing Chief Executive Rachel Palma Randle and our Chief of Staff James Parry were vital in getting Scotland and Scottish messaging right.

It was good to see the long explainer emails and internal communications recognised for promoting understanding of our actions.

The stunts came in for particular praise – 90% of those who responded were very positive about them.

It’s worth saying that a couple of weeks in to the campaign I had lunch with some loved ones who have nothing to do with politics whatever. They had no idea about Sunak getting wet, his tactless football comments in Wales, his visit to the Titanic Quarter, all the things that we political nerds were laughing at. They did know, however, that Ed Davey had gone down a water slide and he’d been talking aobut mental health when he did it. They had also noted Daisy’s brilliant and opportunistic photobombing of that Sunak event with her Lib Dem posters.

However, not all universal praise for this approach – mentioned need to get donors on board with the evidence that it works. That should be an easier sell for next time.

 

While perhaps obvious it is clear that preparing for this election early was key to success. This requires a shift in mindset and culture whereby campaigning is a constant and all elections – Welsh, Scottish, English Locals, Mayorals, etc. fit within a singular strategic framework with the baton being handed to a different lead and/or leader to deliver.

Candidate support in terms of policy was fantastic and it was good to see that recognised.

Candidate support too was cited as a real highlight by many the panel spoke to: standard letters, resources and having quick, practical help at hand in a timely manner won praise across the party with one election veteran describing it as the “best it has ever been”.

Now I definitely told them that in those exact words and I’m fairly certain I can’t have been alone in that. I’d just add in that the daily emails we got as candidates had all the information we needed to know and were written with an engaging style that made you want as well as need to need them. They were clearly put together by someone with a sense of humour too, which always helps.

They also identified problems with candidate selections

Would-be candidates are often left in the dark about when selections are taking place. This uncertainty means the party is undoubtedly missing out on talent. Evidence also suggests uncertainty can affect diversity – robbing would-be candidates of the time and space needed to give thought to what running for candidacy means. Local parties too have expressed frustration with the process, for example being caught between central functions encouraging them to start selections and then being told there is no Returning Officer to enable this to happen at the State/Region level.

The answer to this is:

building on the oversight role that theJoint Candidates Sub-Committee (JCSC) has by giving it the responsibility of setting and agreeing a single set of approval and selection processes for Westminster candidates and setting an overall selection timetable for all seats.

This is something that needs resourcing, though. And we urgently need to recruit and train more Returning Officers, candidate assessors, facilitators and staff to administer the above.

A word of praise for development seats:

Finally, as a party we must do more to recognise those in development seats who not only work outside of election year to develop their seats but then go on to give considerable time and energy (often at significant cost to them) to help others win. As a party we are very fortunate to have wonderful candidates stand as representatives on our behalf – we must ensure that they are all equally valued.

The panel will be making more detailed recommendations on this point specifically in a motion to party conference.

Part of that for me has to be making sure that the seats that receive help give it out too. Many of them do, supporting local elections and by-elections in other areas, but I think there should be a much stronger element of helping them properly develop, recruit members and really get more for the effort they put in.

I was pleased to see that the efforts of Lib Dems Abroad to engage with voters abroad did not go unnoticed – and there was a clear call for us to resolve the barriers to them doing more.

Where the review doesn’t go far enough

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Why is Trump after Greenland?

Trump has three reasons for wanting to acquire Greenland:

  1. The world’s largest island has substantial deposits of 43 out of 50 of the “rare earth” minerals.
  2. It guards the eastern approach to the melting Northwest Passage
  3. It straddles the route that Russian ballistic missiles would take in an attack on America’s East coast.

“Rare earth” minerals are essential to the building of batteries, computer chips and modern defense equipment. The country with the largest rare earth deposits is China. This makes Americans very nervous.

However, just because the minerals are there does not mean they can be easily extracted. Engineers have so far located 150 potential mining sites. But Arctic conditions, a labour shortage and the indigenous Innuits respect for their environment, means that after ten years, only one mine is operational.

In the early days of American exploration hundreds died searching for an ice-free passage through the Canadian Arctic linking Europe and Asia. Global warming means that within a few years ships will finally be breaking through the Northwest Passage. Greenland sits at the eastern end of what will become a major shipping lane.

It has long been recognised that the shortest route for Russian missiles attacking the US is over Greenland and Canada. That is why the US has established an early-warning system at Pituffik Space Base. Some 650 military personnel man radar systems and monitor space debris from their station 750 miles inside Greenland’s Arctic Circle.

But Trump does not need to own Greenland to place military bases there. The US has the right to build whatever military systems it requires under a 1951 treaty with the Danes, who are responsible for Greenland’s defence and foreign affairs. Trump can construct 50 more bases if he wants them.

However, it is also clear that ownership would give America greater control in other areas. It would, for instance, enable the US to introduce lax mining regulations in order to fully exploit the island’s untapped natural resources. This would, however, run counter to the daily lifestyle of the 57,000 Greenlanders who place a high premium on maintaining their unique – albeit cold – way of life.

Panama

American conservatives fought tooth and nail against relinquishing control of the Panama Canal. When the new revised treaty came before the Senate in 1977 it squeaked by with just one vote to spare.

It is not surprising therefore that ultra-conservative Donald Trump wants it back.

Unfortunately for the soon-to-be president, the reasons he has given for the re-acquisition range from outright lies to commercially dubious.

To start with, Trump says that the 50-miles of locks linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans is now occupied by Chinese troops. Thus America’s security is threatened. Next, is the claim that Panama is singling out American shipping and charging it unfair prices.

It is true that China has invested heavily in Panama since 2017 when the Panamanians switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to Mainland China.  The Chinese have built bridges, a railway line and a cruise ship terminal. The Hong Kong-based company Hutchison Port Holdings has also secured the contract to manage terminal facilities at both ends of the canal.

But there are no Chinese soldiers in Panama. That is a lie. If there were troops that would be a casus belli for US intervention. Under the terms of the existing US-Panama treaty, America retains the right to intervene if its security interests are threatened.

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Transport provision in the UK is in crisis

Tuesday morning. First day back for quite a few people, as a number of schools across Hertfordshire had an INSET day on Monday, 6th January. Our household was no different. Although I returned to work on Thursday, 2nd January, the rest of my family started their various work and school commitments the day after, on Tuesday, 7th January. 

We live in a beautiful Welwyn Garden City, however my daughter goes to a Catholic school in St Albans.  We have to pay for a private bus as the public bus provision is not always the best. We accept it; it was our choice to do it and therefore we need to “embrace” some of these financial challenges. However, I find it absolutely staggering how much you often have to pay for some of these services. Moreover, the first day in and the bus breaks down. It is often delayed. The cost of quarterly transport (6.4 miles each way) is £300 – £350 per term/ quarter. Too much? I think so. 

In my experience, in many countries across Europe, some of these costs, especially if they include children, are subsided. Furthermore, even adult transport are much cheaper. According to the European Ferry Travel, in Paris, A single fare price on the London Underground between zones 1-2 will cost me £3.20 at peak times, and £2.60 off-peak. Travelling around Paris is much cheaper; a single fare comes in a saving of £1.58.  Travelling around Madrid on a single fare in Zone A is almost half the price, and would save me £1.22. In order to use the metro services in Lisbon, you must purchase a prepaid card for the value of €0.50. A single ticket allows you to use the network for 60 minutes. These tickets can be used on the metro, trams, and buses. For a 24-hour ticket, costs start at €6.40; a saving of £2.25 compared to the London Underground.

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Defending British sovereignty: A response to far-right Influence

As someone from a British Pakistani background, it is deeply troubling to see how the far-right in this country, who once championed Brexit under the guise of sovereignty, now eagerly submit to the influence of figures like Elon Musk. When Musk undermines our Prime Minister and Parliament, he disregards the hard-won sovereignty that defines Britain. It is a stark reminder of how quickly some are willing to hand over our national integrity to those who have no stake in our history or values.

Musk’s support for figures like Tommy Robinson and Andrew Tate highlights the dangerous path the far-right is taking. Robinson, notorious for mortgage fraud and for jeopardising legal proceedings, represents a fringe that thrives on division and fear. Andrew Tate, who aspires to be Prime Minister but couldn’t spell it correctly, has a history of promoting controversial views and faces serious allegations of human trafficking and sexual assault.

The issue of grooming gangs is deeply personal and crucial. It’s important to remember that such heinous acts transcend race or religion and must be universally condemned. Statistics show that grooming and sexual exploitation are pervasive problems that cut across all communities. It is disheartening to see these crimes used as fodder for divisive rhetoric by those like Musk and his followers.

Meanwhile, Nigel Farage, once hailed as the “messiah” of the Reform Party, now seems more like a “naughty boy” from Monty Python. The confusion within the Reform Party only underscores their lack of coherence and vision. Farage’s fluctuating stance and the party’s failure to find consistent leadership only highlight their instability.

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Social Care: Fixing the future and owning the now

In December 2023, I was an intern at Prospect Magazine in Westminster as my first semester at Queen Mary University of London drew to a close. It was here that I first flipped through the magazine’s Minister for the Future report – produced with Nesta, a UK-based innovation agency focused on social good.

It got me thinking. There is a disturbing lack of long termism in government. Now this isn’t just solely down to election cycles, but, rather, to policymakers not looking at the bigger picture. Vision in the UK did get better last Friday, however, with Health Secretary Wes Streeting launching an independent commission into adult social care, alongside an £86m boost to the Disabled Facilities Grant (designed to help senior citizens make their homes more accessible and avoid hospital for longer periods of time).

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2025: The year Brexit needs to be tackled head-on by the Liberal Democrats

It is obvious that we, Liberal Democrats, are excellent local campaigners, as evidenced with us winning over 72 MPs in the recent 2024 General Election. However, there is one clear problem present with the strategy – we are too reliant on local champions, such people who are great for local constituencies, but often weak on a national level. We don’t always have campaigns that everyone across Great Britain resonates with. Despite having over fourteen times more MPs than Reform UK, our activists struggle for national media coverage. Meanwhile, figures like Mr Farage continue to dominate the media, securing endless airtime for their racist agenda.

Ed Davey and all party activists need to take on a national issue; to campaign and fight an issue that a majority of the public will be interested in, an issue which will help the us economically, which will act as a buffer zone to the chaos of a second Trump presidency, which will give the UK refuge the future economic uncertainty – The European Union.

In the 2019 general election campaign, it was our main focus to “cancel Brexit”, back then we didn’t have as much as a voice of change in parliament – with only 12 MPs not the massive 72 we now boast, but why did we stop?

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The Fall of the German Government: How the liberal FDP and the Debt Brake Shook the Country.

In late 2024, Germany’s political landscape was upended by the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s “traffic light coalition”, comprising the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the market-oriented Free Democratic Party (FDP), one of our sister parties in ALDE. This coalition, which once promised a progressive agenda, fractured under mounting economic pressures, the war in Ukraine, ideological differences, and a ruling by the Federal Constitutional Court. The FDP’s commitment to fiscal discipline was central to this political upheaval, particularly the controversial Schuldenbremse—Germany’s debt brake.

The crisis started in November 2023 when the Court ruled that the government’s allocation of €60 billion to the so-called “Climate and Transformation Fund” (KTF is the German acronym) was unconstitutional. The KTF was originally set out in the coalition agreement and was designed to finance Germany’s energy transition and decarbonisation efforts. It was seen as a vital part of the coalition’s strategy to address climate change and modernise the ailing German economy.

The Court determined that transferring unspent COVID-19 relief funds to the KTF violated the debt brake provision in Germany’s Basic Law (Grundgesetz). This decision essentially invalidated the fund and created a significant shortfall in the government’s budget for critical infrastructure, energy transition projects, and social programs. The ruling was a severe setback to the policy agendas of the Greens and the SPD. For the FDP, it was a validation of their fiscal stance. Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leader of the FDP, seized upon the court’s decision to affirm the party’s commitment to fiscal responsibility, as it prevents inflation and is also fairer for younger generations who would have to pay off the debt. Lindner argued that the ruling reinforced the FDP’s argument that circumventing the debt brake undermined constitutional governance. However, it also led to a stalemate in coalition negotiations. The SPD and Greens sought new funding mechanisms to replace the invalidated KTF, while the FDP remained steadfast.

The debt brake (Schuldenbremse), introduced into Germany’s Basic Law in 2009, was designed to ensure fiscal responsibility by limiting the accumulation of national and regional government debt. The rule restricts annual structural deficits to 0.35% of GDP, except during emergencies (such as the COVID-19 pandemic). The FDP views the debt brake as essential for economic stability, with memories of the interwar hyperinflation still being strong in the country. However, critics argue that the debt brake, as it is currently worded, has become a constraint, preventing necessary investments to address long-term challenges like climate change and economic competitiveness.

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Welcome to my day: 6 January 2025 – notes from the Democratic People’s Republic of Elon…

So, for this Day Editor at least, another year starts and, in my case, in a country ill at ease with itself, the United States. It’s an insular and curiously transactional politics here, where the impact of its leadership is seen mostly in terms of what America does to others rather than in terms of how it is perceived by allies and enemies alike. There is no room for doubt or uncertainty in the minds of the radicals soon to be running this country.

Which inevitably brings me to the recent antics of Elon Musk, whose astonishing firehose of untruths and bombast on X, aimed at the politicians he feels he has bought and paid for, and those in other countries by whom he feels threatened, have done so much to alienate his “customers” internationally. There is clearly something wrong with him, or perhaps there always was and we just hadn’t appreciated it. But his apparent desire to overturn democratically elected governments that displease him isn’t going to go away anytime soon.

Labour seem determined to humour him, which is evidently going to fail. When someone is as astonishingly wealthy as Musk is, and so unused to being refused, he has no need to play by any of the usual rules of debate. And with a media platform under his control which is increasingly a meeting place for some of the most unpleasant elements of our society, the risks that individuals or groups act to advance his beliefs and wishes are genuine. As he has seemingly become more and more radicalised, so has his ability to radicalise others.

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Jewish opinions on Palestine vary considerably – As the daughter of a holocaust survivor my own view explained

My mother was a secular Jewish refugee who fled Czechoslovakia in 1938. My grandfather, Ernst Sommer was on the Nazi death list and escaped separately. He wrote (in 1943) one of the earliest German-language novels on the Holocaust: ‘Revolt of the Saints: A tribute to the heroes of the Warsaw Ghetto.’ Published in Mexico City (1944) while in exile.

My mother was always very against what was being done to the Palestinians in her name as Jew. Because of this I became an active campaigner for Palestinian human rights and very concerned about the creeping rise of weaponised antisemitism. It is a threat to open dialogue and a tool to silence voices that speak out against injustice and persecution. This should be worrying for anyone who holds liberal democratic values. This trend has increased year on year, but it has reached truly unfathomable levels since Israel’s War on Gaza began.

I am a member of the Holocaust Survivors’ Descendants Network, and when I march in London, I often do so alongside them. There is a huge UK Jewish contingent on all the marches, reminding me of the strength of solidarity amongst so many in the Jewish community in this country.

Despite portrayal in mainstream media, it is not an inevitable consequence of Jewishness that you support Zionism or the actions of the Israeli government. Nor is it inevitable that all who consider themselves Zionists would support collective punishment, crimes against humanity and what Amnesty and others are convincingly describing as genocide committed by the Israeli state in Gaza as well as ethnic cleansing in the West Bank.  (David McDowall presented the Amnesty analysis demonstrating genocide in his article in Lib Dem Voice on 5 December 2024.)

There is a glaring irony that those who shout the loudest about conflating pro-Palestinian sentiment with antisemitism are those who are being the most antisemitic. They assume that Judaism is synonymous with Zionism or, as both Netanyahu and the Board of Deputies’ leadership in the UK like to infer, that being Jewish is synonymous with support for Israel regardless of its actions. That is a perversion of Judaism and encourages antisemitism.

As a daughter of a holocaust survivor, I grew up knowing the suffering and generational trauma that comes from genocide, but my mother always refused to be a victim. Why should an innocent population in Palestine be punished for the behaviour of Europeans? The convictions that came from such past trauma of ‘never again’ and the establishment of international law and justice seem to have been sidelined by a warped idea of superiority and entitlement and the idea that the rights of one population trump those of another.

So, like very many British Jews, I am not a pawn for pro-Israeli propaganda to use in their grotesque political game. There are plenty of Jewish voices in the UK that show the strength of pro-Palestinian Jewish sentiment including the Holocaust Survivor’s Descendants Network, Jews for Justice for Palestinians,  to which I belong, Yachad,  Na’amod,  and others. These include a range of Jewish voices, both religious and secular and all oppose the Israeli occupation and ethnic cleansing and advocate for the freedom of the Palestinian people.

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Possible devolution in Hertfordshire and across England

Like many of us, I did try to use the Christmas period to switch off and recharge my batteries. It wasn’t easy, as I liked working and being busy, however a little break was much needed after a very exciting and challenging year.

On the last day of the year, my phone rang. Someone, who I met a number of years ago, called to ask for a bit of advice. It was a longer conversation about the school admissions, additional support for a disabled child and a housing issue. Who is responsible for schooling? Whose responsibility is it to maintain our housing stock? What about roads or planning? What is the difference between the role of a Local or a County Councillor?

Although I find the subject truly fascinating, at times, it is not easy to explain the functions of the Local Government. This might be particularly tricky if you live in a two-tier Local Authorities structure like me in Welwyn Hatfield and Hertfordshire. During our campaigns or regular canvasing sessions, most residents don’t mind (or maybe they don’t care?) who delivers their services, as long as the provision to support our key priorities is efficient, good and the standard is high across all areas.

Most readers will be aware that the government has published, in the second half of December 2024, a white paper on possible reforms of Local Governments. Hertfordshire might be one of a few counties, which will have to transition from currently 10 Districts Council to one or two. There are a number of possible outcomes of the consultation, many more questions and a huge amount of uncertainty.

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Marginal cost pricing: Scamming Britain since 1989

The UK boasts the third highest electricity prices in the world, and we’re nowhere near the third highest incomes. Congrats, UK, we’ve won a gold medal in paying too much! Meanwhile, our friends in the United States are paying a third of what we do, even though we generate a good chunk of our power from cheaper renewables. The UK currently has the highest industrial energy prices in the IEA making our manufacturing goods more expensive which, when combined with trade restrictions due to Brexit, makes the UK less competitive. So, what’s the deal? Why is our electricity pricing system as twisted as a politician’s promise?

The root of this absurdity lies in marginal cost pricing. Most countries calculate electricity prices based on an average of all sources. But not us. No, the UK, in its infinite wisdom (thanks, Thatcher), calculates prices based on the most expensive energy source needed to meet demand. That’s like splitting a restaurant bill and insisting everyone pays for the one person who ordered the lobster and champagne. A posthumous hat tip to Margaret Thatcher, whose legacy of “working people last” is still alive and kicking.

Under this system, the wholesale price of electricity is set by the priciest source—typically natural gas. Never mind that renewables are cheaper to produce; their benefits are drowned out by gas prices that spike when demand is high. The current setup ensures we pay through the nose for our energy. Renewables are cheap and getting cheaper. Gas is expensive and getting pricier. Yet, UK electricity prices keep climbing like they’ve got Olympic ambitions. Who loses? Regular people like you and me. Who wins? Well, fossil fuel companies and their shareholders are doing just fine, thank you very much.

Right-wing grifters love to blame this on the green transition, spinning it as a reason to delay renewables and flirt with climate denialism.  Meanwhile, this pricing system doesn’t incentivize renewable adoption nearly as much as it could. It just gives natural gas companies a golden parachute every time the market sneezes.

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Labour’s potentially hazardous approach to Donald Trump

Come 20 January 2025, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the President of the United States, again. This is not an outcome that we Liberal Democrats desired, but it cannot go unrecognised, particularly as it was part of an anti-incumbency wave that characterised the ‘year of elections’. However, it does not mean that we should accept the actions of his incoming administration without question or complaint, especially those which have a direct impact upon the United Kingdom.

Several newspapers, principally of the right of the UK’s news landscape, have reported two prospects that would constitute likely hazards. The first is the spectre, as raised by Ambassador-designate Lord Peter Mandelson, of Nigel Farage being invited to serve as a bridgebuilder between Labour and Trump during talks for a UK-US trade deal. And the second is the possibility that Donald Trump will be offered an invitation to a state visit to the United Kingdom, including a royal reception.

While Farage’s potential role in trade talks has been dismissed by Downing Street insiders, Labour’s approach to engaging with Trump diplomatically may be too ingratiating or enabling. This may be best demonstrated when David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, walked back his comments that Trump was ‘no friend of Britain’, a ‘tyrant’, ‘a woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath’, and ‘deluded, dishonest, xenophobic, narcissistic’, seemingly having been swayed after one dinner with him.

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What could the long overdue reform of the House of Lords look like?

Overdue Reform of the House of Lords

Talk about reforming the House of Lords has been going on for many decades but in 2011 a cross-party draft bill proposed 300 members, 80% elected and 20% appointed. The bill was dropped in 2012, and there has been no political commitment to implement such a major change to its constitution since then. 

Currently, Keir Starmer is legislating to remove those left in 1999 when hereditary lords were removed, leaving 92 of them to remain “until further reform is proposed”. However, Starmer is claiming that future Lords reform will take place step by step, as yet undefined, so in theory the remaining lords should be safe until that further reform happens!

Most agree a change is needed, but to what? A Senate with Senators? An Upper House? If most of them are going to be elected, maybe members should be called Counsellors as they will be ‘advising’ (and voting) on the legislation going through Parliament, but certainly not Lords, as that harps back to the aristocracy. 

Nor would there be any more life peerages for the party hacks and cronies who pack the Lords currently. Elections and appointments would be for a term of 3 to 5 years, maybe not all taking place at the same time, to ensure a degree of continuity. Those who had genuine expertise could apply for any of the appointed positions, not judged politically by any of the parties, but independently. Or they could stand for election in whichever Region they had their principal residence, but not from other homes, work locations, or land ownership.

Recent talk has been suggesting a reduction to around half the present numbers, perhaps with a maximum of 400 to ensure sufficient to deal with the legislation coming through the Commons. 75% of these would be elected, the balance appointed. The elected Regional allocation would be based on the last EU distribution for UK MEPs, and adjusted by the current distribution determined by the 2023 Review of UK constituencies set out below:

 

Region          EU MEPs         2023 MPs         Allocation

E Midlands            5                       47                               21

Eastern                   7                        61                               28

London                   8                        75                                35

North East             3                        27                                13

North West           8                        73                                 34

South East          10                        91                                 43

South West          6                          58                                26

W Midlands         7                          57                                26

Yorkshire etc       6                          54                                25

Scotland              6                           57                                26

Wales                  4                            32                                15

N Ireland           3                             18                                 8

Total:             73                        650                         300

If the Lords Spiritual were also reduced from 26 to 12, representing not just the CofE but representatives of UK religions based on their proportionate affiliation, this would be fairer as part of the appointed 100. 94% of those responding to the 2021 Census contributed to that optional question, and Christian affiliation fell to 46%, the first time it was below 50%.

Assuming that representation would be agreed, a possible division of the 12 could be:

Catholics: 3; Church of England: 3; Islam: 2; Methodist, Baptist and URC: 1; 

Church of Scotland and other denominations: 1; Hindu, Sikh and Buddhist: 1;  

Jew, Humanist and other religions: 1.  

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Be like Jimmy

Yes, I know we’re supposed to be on a festive break, but there is no way I could let the passing of one of my political heroes go unremarked. Ed Davey was one of the first to pay tribute to former US President Jimmy Carter:

Jimmy Carter was an inspiration. He led a truly remarkable life dedicated to public service with a genuine care for people. My thoughts are with his family, friends and all those who loved him. He will be remembered for generations.

I was 9 years old when Jimmy Carter won the 1976 presidential election. I remember it for two things. First, his smile. So warm, so positive, so genuine. Second, his daughter Amy is just a few weeks younger than me and I was so excited that there was going to be a little girl in the White House.  I had no idea what a goldfish bowl nightmare it would be for any family to be under that kind of constant attention. I remember also being very proud of her when she was arrested as a student in the 80s at a protest against CIA recruitment drives, though she was later acquitted of the charges.

Watergate had been one of the very first news stories I had ever really been aware of.  It was such a big story that the news was on at breakfast time on the tv. This was long before the 24 hour news cycle was a thing. Carter seemed an antidote to all of that – he symbolised openness and honesty.

During his actual presidential term, he managed to achieve what had seemed to be impossible. Who would have thought that the leaders of Israel and Egypt would make peace at Camp David. Fifty years on, we can see how much there still has to be done in the Middle East, but this was huge at the time.

The economy was an absolute bin fire at that time with high inflation and unemployment though. Had that not been the case, he might have had a chance against super-communicator Ronald Reagan in 1980.  Had a rescue mission for US hostages held in the US Embassy in Tehran been successful, he would have been a hero. There was a particular cruelty to the Iranians waiting till the second he left office to release those hostages.

For Jimmy Carter and his wife Rosalynn, his presidency was only part of their public service. He could have gone back to his Georgia peanut farm in the huff in 1981, but he spent decades doing his best to improve human rights and gender equality across the world. I was always amazed how, well into their 90s, they spent a week a year helping build homes for those who needed them with Habitat for Humanity.

Since 1984, President and Mrs. Carter were champions and groundbreaking voices for affordable, decent housing for all, donating their time and leadership each year to build and improve homes through Habitat’s Carter Work Project.

Over the course of more than 35 years, they worked alongside nearly 104,000 volunteers in 14 countries to build, renovate and repair 4,390 homes.

They inspired millions across the globe with their dedication and rallied thousands of volunteers and celebrities to take part in our mission, helping Habitat for Humanity become internationally recognized for our work to build decent and affordable housing.

I mean, this wasn’t just going along and cutting a ribbon, shaking a few hands and moving on. This was actually getting their hands dirty, as Rosalynn described:

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Our responsibility – Reform can and must be defeated

While a cautious Labour government is worrying about former Labour voters who moved to Reform UK at the General Election and Conservatives are split between those who see the Faragists as friends and those who see them as enemies., Liberal Democrats have a clear moral  responsibility to fight them hard and defeat them.
Much has been written about the exploitation of grievances fuelling far right advances on both sides of the Atlantic and within the EU. While we have to take seriously the hurts many are experiencing and the sense of lostness in the face of collapsing public services which threatens civil society, we have to overcome the divisive hate-mongers. Labour say this is their mission but they have strange ways of showing it. So it’s up to us.
In the pre-Christmas weeks the Yorkshire and the Humber Region explicitly encouraged members and supporters to get stuck into a run of local by-elections saying “Reform is spreading divisive rhetoric and we’re working hard to offer a better vision for our communities”.
There was an interesting sequence of results.
  • On 28th November we had a shock gain in Woodhouse, Sheffield with a 10 vote margin over Reform and Labour pushed into third place.
  • Also on 28th a strong Lib Dem defence in York gave us three times the vote of the Tory in second place. Reform came third with Labour fourth.
  • On 12th December Reform took a seat from Labour in Merseyside (with no Lib Dem candidate). Meanwhile in West and South Yorkshire Reform failed to take seats in Featherstone, Wakefield and Dodworth, Barnsley. Labour held Featherstone but a large increase in the Lib Dem vote pushed Reform into third place. In Dodworth a strong Lib Dem hold secured twice as many votes as Reform with Labour in third place.
In some respects we have been here before. In 2006 the BNP came within a hundred votes of taking the Eccleshill, Bradford seat, which a few years later I was to represent on the City Council. We were determined to push them back. In 2007 it was not difficult to persuade voters that the Lib Dems were best placed to defeat the far right and we had a good track record to show that we could offer something much, much better. With people who usually voted for other parties coalescing around the Lib Dem candidate we had our biggest ever margin of victory. We secured nearly twice as many votes as the BNP in second place with Labour third.
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Why you should respond to the Future of Policy consultation

Members should have received an email last week regarding a new policy consultation which has just launched. All members should respond to it.

I joined the party in 2016 – the evening after Brexit, in fact. I was not alone. That summer saw the biggest increase in Lib Dem membership in the post-merger era.

Since that day, it has been a period of intense turmoil for UK society and politics. We have had six prime ministers, three general elections, a pandemic, and an ongoing cost of living crisis.

For much of that time, the Liberal Democrats have been, in terms of UK influence, a tiny third party. While I do not mean to ignore the achievements of the European Election in 2019, or our government in Wales, it has to be admitted that we have been, mainly, a party of protest.

The Liberal Democrats on the Rise

But this is changing. We now have a large number of MPs and face an increasingly unpopular government. We should expect the Liberal Democrats to continue to thrive and grow. It is not unreasonable to expect that, in five years or ten, we may find ourselves back in government.

This opportunity is not merely born from the fact that we got a lot of votes one day in July. It is also because we are a party of expertise, evidence, and accountability. While other parties are mired in scandal, chronically dysfunctional, or reliant on populist personalities, ours is not.

This is not a coincidence. It is because our party is led, not from the top, but by people like you. It is because our expertise, evidence, and accountability are democratic.

And our responsibility to make good on this opportunity, as ordinary members, comes now – not later, when elections are called, campaigns go into their highest gear, votes are counted, MPs are elected, and ministers are appointed. And that responsibility is not merely to serve as cheerleaders and staff for those of us who pursue higher office. It is also to vet them, instruct them, and hold them to account.

This cannot be done without robust, evidenced policy.

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Restoring the Oxford University Liberals

One evening during the Christmas holidays, after my first term as a student at Oxford, I rushed down the stairs with a brand new idea, eager to tell my parents. As someone with raging ADHD, this is not an unusual occurrence- but this idea was slightly different to all the others; I was suggesting that I resurrect a 100 year old institution that had unfortunately been defunct for over a year – the Oxford University Liberal Democrats. It was also unusual in the sense that I actually followed through on this idea, and I write this almost a year later, after the end of my Presidency. 

The Oxford University Liberal Club was first founded in 1913, as a successor to a couple of other clubs around at the time. Early on, it was more of a Private Member’s Club than a University Society, holding premises in the centre of Oxford. The society went through a number of names and forms throughout the years, before settling on the Oxford University Liberal Democrats in 1990. It has two former Prime Ministers to its name – one is Harold Wilson (Treasurer, Michaelmas 1935), and I regret to inform readers that the other is Liz Truss (President, Hilary 1995). 

I felt that Oxford was very much missing that Liberal presence when I first arrived. I was faced with the binary choice of the Conservative Association or the Labour Club, and I felt there was an obligation to ensure that there was a space for liberal voices, open discussion and free speech beyond those two clubs. 

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Has America lost Pakistan?

The relationship between the United States and Pakistan has undergone significant shifts over the decades, from being close allies during the Cold War to the current state of growing estrangement. The US’s recent sanctions on Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme highlight this growing divide. These sanctions reflect not only immediate concerns about nuclear proliferation but also broader challenges in the US-Pakistan relationship, shaped by history, strategic divergences, and emerging global alliances. Yet, losing Pakistan as an ally could have serious strategic implications, especially given the strength and professionalism of the Pakistan Army compared to other militaries in the Muslim world.

For much of the 20th century, Pakistan was a key ally of the United States. During the Cold War, Pakistan’s alignment with the US was solidified through its participation in SEATO and CENTO, military alliances aimed at containing Soviet influence in Asia and the Middle East. This relationship deepened during the Afghan-Soviet War in the 1980s when Pakistan, under General Zia-ul-Haq, became a frontline state in resisting Soviet expansionism. Billions of dollars in military and economic aid flowed from the US to Pakistan, funding Mujahideen fighters and solidifying Pakistan’s role as a critical partner. However, the fallout from this era, including the rise of radical militancy and instability, began to test the alliance.

The 1990s marked the first major divergence. Pakistan’s covert nuclear weapons programme, led by Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, became a source of contention. The US imposed sanctions under the Pressler Amendment, cutting off military and economic aid. While strategic priorities during the Afghan War had overshadowed concerns about Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions, the end of the Cold War left little reason for the US to overlook these issues. Pakistan’s nuclear tests in 1998 further isolated it, as the US strongly opposed proliferation in South Asia.

Post-9/11, the US-Pakistan partnership was revived temporarily. Pakistan became a crucial ally in the War on Terror, allowing US forces access to its airspace and providing intelligence to target Al-Qaeda and Taliban operatives. Yet, this renewed alliance was fraught with mistrust. The US accused Pakistan’s military and intelligence agency, the ISI, of maintaining ties with Taliban factions while publicly supporting the American-led war. Drone strikes in Pakistan’s tribal areas, though targeting militants, caused widespread civilian casualties and fuelled anti-American sentiment.

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Love is not enough

`Love is Enough’ is a wonderful song. Well done to Ed Davey and the Bath Philharmonia Young Carers Choir on having targeted the target Christmas  Number 1 spot. As a sentiment, though, it only reflects one side of the essential components that make us who we are as a political movement and segment of British society.  

At Party Conference in Bournemouth in 2023, I helped found a new Affiliated Organisation called Liberal Democrat Friends of Ukraine, focusing primarily on the bellicose military objective of helping Ukraine to defend itself against Putin’s aggression. Humanitarian support and reconstruction aid are our other priorities. It was the right thing to do – for Ukraine but also for Britain.

That Conference in September 2023 passed a belligerent motion urging the Government, `in defence of liberal values’, to:-

Do all it realistically can, in view of Putin’s brazen actions, to help arm Ukraine, including with longer-range precision weapons,…. to defeat Russia. Continue to strengthen the supply of British arms and ammunition to Ukraine… 

Fantastic. Lib Dem Friends of Uraine works closely with sister AOs like the Armed Forces and Hong Kong. We are about values. Membership of Lib Dem Friends of Ukraine alone has surged to about 350, much of it since Brighton 2024. So many Party members care about this.

Standing back from the `Peace Dividend’ mindset that has catastrophically got us, since 1989, to where, militarily, we are now, we can see how Utopian the daydream was.

Liberal, advanced democracies, including ours, have slid into a vicious circle of 1939 ostrich groupthink.

All parties seem to think that voters would question whoever was honest enough to spell out the substantially higher share of GDP that would be needed to re-arm, and adequately defend Ukraine and ourselves.

Responding to this, they collectively encouraged voters to believe that there was no danger – leaving the UK insufficiently capable, apart from our excellent at sea nuclear deterrent.

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