Category Archives: Op-eds

Review: Revolution of our Times

Revolution of our Times is a truly powerful film screened in London in March 2022.

The film shows real footage of more than one million people on the streets of Hong Kong protesting the introduction of the Extradition Bill about to be enacted against Hong Kong citizens whose only act was to upset the Chinese Communist State.

The spontaneous protest demonstrated how unpopular the proposed extradition law to mainland China was.  Witnessed by the arbitrary arrest of three booksellers in Hong Kong who dared to sell banned publications.  The people now called for the repeal of the extradition law as a breach of the Sino British Joint Declaration which guaranteed Hongkongers their freedoms for another 50 years from the handover of HK to China in 1997.

The crowds consisted of men, women, students as well as ordinary workers.  There were peaceful ranks of protesters with banners and umbrellas just using their voice.  As the numbers of protesters swelled, the main downtown districts of HK were filled with their chants for their five key demands: to withdraw the extradition bill; to stop labelling protesters as “rioters”; to drop charges against protesters; to conduct an independent inquiry into police behaviour; to implement genuine universal suffrage for both the Legislative Council and the Chief Executive.

What started as peaceful protest soon became a standoff between the people and the police.  More and more strong armed tactics were being used including the use of teargas, rubber bullets, water canon and eventually live fire.  People were incensed and they went directly to the LegCo building where they broke into the main chamber causing damage to property.

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The LDV quick guide to non-domicile

So, Akshata Murty is non-domiciled for tax purposes. What does this mean, and how does it work? Luckily, the information is readily at hand…

Domicile is obtained in one of three ways;

  • origin – normally, your place of birth
  • dependence – where the law ascribes domicile to an individual because of that individual’s lack of legal capacity and legal dependence upon another person
  • choice – acquired by physical presence in another territory and the intention to remain in that territory permanently or indefinitely

So, in Akshata Murty’s case, her domicile of origin is India and, unless she indicates her wish to be domiciled in the United Kingdom, she can retain her status as being domiciled in India for the time being, subject to any finding that, by dint of the decisions she takes, she is deemed to have elected for a different domicile by choice.

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Tom Arms’ World Review: “Butchers of Bucha”

Here’s a good one: In the wake of the Bucha massacres, a Russia Today commentator opined this week that the dead Ukrainians littering the street were killed by British intelligence because Bucha sounds like butcher in English. This made it easier, he continued, for British newspapers to write headlines such as the “Butchers of Bucha.”

How SIS and/or British troops managed to sneak undetected into Bucha, blow up homes, tanks and roads and kill the inhabitants is left unexplained. But that is of no consequence.  The problem is that too many Russians believe him. In fact, what passes for a reasonably independent opinion poll in Russia this week showed that 80 percent of the population accept the Kremlin version of events. A big part of this support is because the Russian people are denied access to news reports produced from outside Russia.

But this is only part of the story. Putin knows that domestic support is essential for success in Ukraine and he has been laying down the foundational lies since 2007—perhaps even before. These included: Ukraine is governed by Nazis. NATO is threatening to overrun Russia. Russian culture is under threat from the West. Russia is being denied its rightful place as a great power. With this firm propaganda bedrock in place – and total state control of the media – it becomes easier for the Russian public to swallow the inevitable mountain of lies that follow.

It is unsurprising that Russian soldiers are being accused of violent war crimes. Violence begets violence and Russia, according to their own statistics, is a violent society. Russian police have reported that one in four Russian households have suffered domestic violence at some point. The figures are considered a major embarrassment, so much so that the Duma recently voted to massage the statistics by decriminalising several categories of domestic violence in an attempt to improve the national image.

The roots of the problem are directly linked to chronic national alcoholism.  Twenty-five percent of Russian men die before the age of 55 alcohol-related diseases. On average, each Russian downs 1,500 shots of vodka a year. Various governments over the years have tried to curb Russians’ love affair with the bottle. The latest attempt was in 2010 when President Dmitri Medvedev introduced a minimum charge of $3 a bottle of vodka and banned drinking and driving. The legislation, however, appears to have little effect on drinking habits and recently the Kremlin gave into public pressure and amended the drink driving law to allow “one for the road.”

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Observations of an expat: Amazing Ukraine

It is incredible what the Ukrainian army has achieved. If NATO answers the Ukrainian foreign minister’s call for “weapons, weapons and weapons” then Vladimir Putin is almost certain to suffer the most humiliating of humiliating defeats.

A few facts and figures: Ukraine’s defence budget is $5.4 billion. Russia’s is $61.7 billion. Russia has five times as many active military personnel as Ukraine; six times as many tanks and artillery, four times as many armoured vehicles; 13 times as many aircraft and more than ten times as many ships.

The line-up in Ukraine resembles the Biblical David and Goliath tale and with the same result.

The reason is that wars are not always decided on the simple issue of numbers and types of guns. There are any number of other unquantifiable factors that are thrown into the messy mix and can determine the outcome of battle.

For a start there is the undeniable question of justice. Right v. wrong. Good v. Evil. There is no doubt that in the opinion of the overwhelming proportion of the world’s population that Ukraine stands on right side of the equation and Russia on the wrong.

That has been underscored by this week’s vote in New York to remove Russia from the UN Human Rights Commission by a shattering majority of 93 votes to 24 with 58 abstentions. To remove a permanent member of the Security Council from an important UN body is a major international political statement which must reinforce the resolve of every Ukrainian fighter preparing to repel the anticipated Russian offensive in the East.

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From the Red Benches: Health and Social Care Bill

The Health and Care Bill, which is about to reach its end after the Easter break, has been a good example of a Bill which had not been thought through by the Government but massively improved in the Lords.

It is also a good example of what can be achieved by cross party working and a Minister who has been willing to listen, except when the Treasury has stuck its oar in and prevented compromise.

The Bill replaces the current Care Commissioning Groups in England with 42 Integrated Care Systems, each headed by an Integrated Care Board responsible for commissioning health and care services across its very large area. In principle the move towards integration of care is very welcome but the detail is crucial.

The ICS may include more than one Local Authority. The appropriate representation on these very powerful boards of Local Authorities and others with the right skills, knowledge and experience has been a big issue which we were determined to get right. I think we got a good result.

The Bill also introduces an advertising ban for foods high in sugar, salt and fat on TV before 9 pm and online. It also sets up a new system for investigating cases where things go wrong and where lessons can be learned by the whole service.

Crucially here we have been able to alter the Bill to ensure that people can give candid evidence in a ‘safe space’ without danger to their own future career. This is fundamental to the success of the system. Too often in the past, potential whistle-blowers have been deterred from saying what happened for fear of bullying and damage to their careers and potential learning has been lost.

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IPCC climate change report: what next?

This article aims to summarise the recent Climate Change report that was released by the UN’s IPCC, or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This will be done first by reference to the relevant global region, and near the end there is some further discussion on what comes next, and the role of this Government.

Europe

The report identified some key risks for the European region. First, there are likely to be heat-and-drought related risks to crop growing. While the rising temperatures may make agriculture more successful in Northern Europe, the higher heat and increased water scarcity will reduce output in Southern Europe, and the losses in the South are expected to be far greater than the gains in the North. If the global temperature rises by 2 degrees, water scarcity will likely impact a third of the population living in Southern Europe, or around 50,000,000 people, and if the temperature increases one degree further, more than 100,000,000 Europeans will experience water scarcity. At this temperature level – 3 degrees warmer – it is expected that coastal flood damage will increase ten-fold, and that the number of people impacted by flooding will double.

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We must protect Channel Four

On 2nd November 1982, at 4:40 pm, Scottish television presenter Paul Coia made an announcement that would change British television forever; “Good afternoon. It’s a pleasure to be able to say to you: Welcome to Channel Four”.

While the plans for a fourth independent television channel were originally devised in 1977, under the Callaghan Administration, it wouldn’t be until 1982 under Margaret Thatcher that these plans were put into motion, bringing us Channel Four and the Welsh equivalent, S4C (Sianel Pedwar Cymru/Channel Four Wales). Since its inception, we’ve seen channels branch off from Channel Four, including but not limited to 4Music, E4, More4, Film4, and a streaming platform in the form of All4. As of late, there’s been a lot of talk from the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport regarding selling Channel Four, justifying it with the claim that doing so would make it “more competitive”, in comparison to competitors such as Netflix and Amazon Prime. This is despite the fact that Channel Four is, first and foremost, a broadcaster and not a streaming platform.

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Resisting the UK’s slide into a ‘middleman’ economy

My sister-in-law is severely autistic, and as such is entitled to receive support in the form of a carer who takes her out for various activities. Over the years she has had a number of care visitors of highly variable quality, provided by a badly-managed agency under contract to the County Council. Fortunately her current care visitor is a dedicated and caring person who has improved her quality of life immeasurably. She is visibly happier, calmer and getting much more enjoyment from life, and of course want this to continue. The carer herself earns minimum wage but the Council pays the agency over twice this for her time. We are now looking at employing this carer directly, which involves her becoming self-employed and being paid directly by the Council. If we do this the Council will pay her £14 an hour, which looks like a pay rise until you remember that she will be self-employed and so will not have any of the benefits or security of full employment such as holiday pay.  In fact she will be little better off financially and the main benefit is to remove the bad agency from the arrangement and ensure continuity of care with this particular valued carer.

What strikes me about this situation is that the council is willing and able to pay more then £14 per hour for her time, but not to benefit the carer herself – only to benefit a company who will take a large slice of the funding. Why?

My niece is a very bright young woman who graduated a couple of years ago with a first-class degree. She currently works for HMRC. Except she doesn’t – she works for a company who take on graduates, provide training and then sell their time to others. In this case they sell my niece’s time to a major international consulting firm who in turn are contracted by HMRC.  I don’t have the numbers but I suspect HMRC (i.e. the taxpayer) are paying 3-4 times what my niece earns for her time. Why?

The UK’s energy regulator, OFGEM, has over 1000 permanent employees and an annual budget of over £100m. It spends nearly £20m a year with consultants, and recently paid £420k to an outside consultancy to advise on the price cap changes. Why does a well-resourced quasi-Government body need to spend such large amounts of money with consultants just to perform one of its core responsibilities? Incidently, the same consultants contracted by OFGEM also work for the Big 6 energy suppliers – couldn’t they at least find one with some independence?

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Triple lock restored but half a million miss out

Work and Pensions Secretary Therese Coffey has confirmed that the government will remain committed to the state pension triple lock for the rest of this parliament, following the temporary move to a ‘double lock’ in 2022 because of pandemic distortions. 

This means that in April 2023 British state pensioners will once again receive an uplift at the highest of the rise in earnings, price inflation or 2.5%. Due to the huge increase in the cost of living this year, and depending on what this amounts to by September, the increase in April 2023 could be 8% or higher.

It may appear generous but pensioners will still have to cope with inflationary pressures for a whole year while waiting for the increase to take effect. And let’s not forget that the increase they are receiving this year will be less than originally promised by the government in their election manifesto. 

Even with the Triple Lock, the fact is that the British state pension is one of the lowest relative to average earnings among the developed countries constituting the OECD.

There is another fallacy that is overlooked even by the unions. Namely the concept of cost of living increases calculated in terms of percentages. For a low earner or pensioner with an annual income of £10,000 an increase of 8% would amount to £800 whereas a person with an income of £100,000 would receive an increase of £8,000! The tax brackets may reduce the disparity a little but it should be obvious that the system simply results in an ever-widening gap in monetary terms between the rich and the poor.

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LGBT+ Allies need to step up

On March 31 2022, Boris Johnson announced he was U-turning on the government’s pledge to ban conversion “therapy”; a form of abuse that seeks to undermine someone’s gender and/or sexual identity, and gaslight them into believing how they view themselves is wrong and must be “corrected”.

Due to backlash from politicians across the House; including a number of Tory MPs, and LGBT+ pressure groups Johnson acquiesced – to a point. He has promised to uphold the ban on gay and bisexual conversion therapy but has failed to do the same regarding trans conversion therapy. What has been made very clear is that the LGBT+ community is viewed as nothing more than a vehicle to gain votes for Boris Johnson. The way he is willing to make such rash, disgusting decisions that compromise the rights and safety of individuals serve to highlight that now, more than ever, LGBT+ allies need to rally around the community and bolster our support.

We cannot expect trans people to shoulder the burden of standing against societal, and now state-sanctioned oppression alone. If we want to see real change, we must create platforms that amplify trans voices. We need to contact MPs, MSPs, MSs, MLAs, Councillors, Mayors, anyone and everyone that is integral to our political system and encourage them to speak up against such prejudice. We must listen, not to respond, but to understand and learn from trans people, the negative experiences they face and what we can do to mitigate them. It is our moral responsibility to defend and uphold the individual freedoms of all people – a responsibility that our government has abandoned.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

The jury is out on the value of French President Emmanuel Macron’s numerous and lengthy telephone/zoom/face to face talks Vladimir Putin.

Some diplomats claim that he is providing a valuable role in keeping open the lines of communication between NATO and the Kremlin. Others maintain that his talks have given Putin a totally undeserved credibility. Either way, the Vlad-Emmanuel chats do not appear to have had a great impact Macron’s re-election hopes as the French presidential campaign swings towards the final week before the first round on 10 April.

Macron has been the favourite for the past six months, but this week he dropped a percentage point from 28 to 27 percent of the expected first round vote and his chief rival Marine Le Pen climbed from 18 percent to 20. Pollsters, however, still give the incumbent the advantage in the 24 April second round, but it has narrowed to 52-53 percent of the vote.

Right-winger Ms Le Pen has clearly had some success in de-demonising her National Rally Party. She has been helped by the candidacy of the extreme right-winger Eric Zemmour who wants to deport 100,000 Muslims a year. Ms Le Pen has successfully shifted the focus of her campaign from the traditional issue of immigration to the cost of living crisis. This has put her in a position to pick up second round votes from the left of the French political spectrum with her economic policy and votes from the right with her slightly more acceptable anti-immigration policies.

However, Macron has also had some recent successes. In January, the French economy has its biggest every monthly jump as it bounced back from the pandemic and he has managed to reduce unemployment to 7.4 percent.

Reports emanating from Britain’s MI6 and GCHQ and America’s CIA and National Security Agency are in total agreement – Putin goofed. He completely miscalculated the resolve of the Ukrainian people and the Western Alliance and the ability of his own military forces. But according to the spy chiefs, it gets even worse. The Russian president has surrounded himself with advisers who are terrified of telling him the truth. The result is that his decision to invade was made on the basis of intelligence which fitted the prejudices and political beliefs of Putin rather than the facts.

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Hina Bokhari AM writes: Being a Muslim candidate during Ramadan

When I reminded my Lib Dem colleague, Richard Poole, that I was going to be fasting for the next four weeks of the elections, he asked immediately how they should support me and how to show respect to Muslim voters during the campaign. So I thought it would be useful if I shared some useful facts and insight into the month of Ramadan and how it may impact Muslim candidates like me and voters in the next phase of the election campaign.

Firstly, I want to thank Richard for showing an interest. When I was younger, few would ask about my faith. Now I have friends who want to join me in fasting and come over for Iftar, the meal at the end of the fast, at sunset. Lots has changed in people’s perception of Islam, sadly because of some very negative Muslim imagery in the media after the New York September 11th attacks. But from this difficult time also came positive curiosity, a genuine keenness to understand and to learn.

As a Muslim woman in politics, I am proud to talk about my faith and encourage people to learn and participate in our traditions and customs. I’m so proud that during the first lockdown we held the Lib Dem Iftar which included MPs, councillors and members fasting along with other Muslim Lib Dems. It was a great immersive learning experience which I would love to do again.

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Observations of an expat: more global moves

The Ukraine War continues to create tectonic shifts on the global diplomatic scene.  This week it has helped Beijing stake its claim to Afghanistan and Central Asia as a Chinese sphere of influence.

Also in Asia, New Delhi has become the centre of diplomatic ferment as East and West bid for support from the South Asian giant.

At the same time, the EU has ditched its “talk about trade only” policy with China to join the US in pressuring Xi Jinping to come out against the war.

In the meantime, Putin has turned the energy screws on Europe by demanding that they pay for his gas in roubles in order to support the sanctions-damaged currency.

The move has been welcomed by Beijing who think that the Western alliance will collapse in the face of the energy crisis. The EU and US however, remain united in demanding that China must not help Russia circumvent sanctions, climb off its rickety fence, act like a responsible global power with a stake in the world order, and pressure Putin to stop the killing in Ukraine.

But let’s start first in Afghanistan and central Asia where China has organised a multilateral initiative to stake its claim to replace the US as the major foreign power in Central Asia following the American retreat.

The diplomatic manoeuvrings started last week with a visit to Kabul by Chinese delegation led by Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The acting Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi described his guests as “the most important high-level delegation received by Afghanistan.”

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Meet the updated Lighthouse / Connect sync.

At long, long last, we have good news on the Lighthouse / Connect sync!

Our new synchronisation process is now up and running and you should see significant improvements in the accuracy of membership data in Connect.

We know that this not being fixed has been a long-running source of frustration for many people for a long time and this is hopefully an encouraging step towards improving our data and tools.

The synchronisation process ensures that for every member & registered supporter on Lighthouse (in Great Britain), a MyCampaign record should be created and then matched to MyVoters where possible.

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Ockenden Maternity Review: A view from the front line in Shropshire

The Ockenden Report, to be published this morning, was commissioned by Jeremy Hunt in 2017 after the parents of babies who died in the care of Shrewsbury and Telford NHS Hospital Trust (SATH) were distraught about the uncaring response of staff to their bereavement. Concerns were also raised about the numbers of preventable baby deaths.

The report of the Ockenden maternity review, which investigated 1,862 cases, will add to several recent reports detailing catastrophic failures within other NHS Trusts. This article sets out the wider context for the failures at SaTH and makes recommendations for improvements to the way that care and safeguarding is managed across the NHS.

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Targets aren’t policies – the flawed Liberal Democrat position on homes and planning

The “Building Communities” motion last autumn left us with a target of 380,000 new homes a year, despite opposition from ALDC and most of the Party hierarchy. The grassroots, especially the young, don’t trust their colleagues who have to work with government at all levels.

Targets like this are gestures that discredit our radical tradition. They are not policies and they are bound to fail unless a Party has policies that can deliver them. Noticeably none of the policies in the motion were opposed. Just the target.
The national housing target merely “feeds the beast” that is the cartel of national homebuilders and speculative landowners, in combination with lenders who between them kill our real economy. I began my working life 50 years ago as a chartered builder working for one of them. I wondered why housing site construction always made a loss until the regional manager took me aside at a training function and said: “Tony, we make all our money on land deals.” So began my inyerest in land economics.

“Investment” in a finite natural resource simply hands over wealth created by entrepreneurs and workers, to be locked up in bank balances as unearned gains. Legalised theft. It inflates the balance sheets of large companies that plunder and speculate at our expense. That wealth needs to be re-invested in things society needs, not in pandering to greed.

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Child Q’s ordeal – from the perspective on an educator

I am a secondary school teacher in an inner-London school. We have a student body that is overwhelming non-white British.

In the context of the horrifying treatment of Child Q, our students were understandably asking many questions about whether we as teachers, could be trusted by them.

The sheer number of questions necessitated a discussion of the case occurred within a staff briefing, but it also left me devastated that a number of teachers in a different borough had destroyed my relationship with the students.

At this briefing, we were given an update on the facts of the case and how the school will react to this case. The discussion was productive, particularly around suspected drug possession. We were additionally informed that unless it was a dealing level found, the police would not be contacted. A crucial and needed policy. Essentially adopting a decriminalisation policy.

The mere existence of these questions says a lot about the breakdown in relationship between the public services of education and the police. If the school can’t trust the police, then why should the children. If the children have been let down by the teachers and the police, then why should they trust either.

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Tom Arms’ World Review – 27 March 2022

Fifteen thousand US troops have been either sent from America or re-deployed to NATO’s Eastern blank in Poland, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria. The total number of American soldiers now based in Europe is 90,000. But before NATO supporters become too excited by this show of martial resolve, it should be noted that at the height of the Cold War in 1960, when the Berlin Wall was built, there were 400,000 American soldiers in Europe spread across 100 sites. One should also remember that NATO has a border with Russia in the Arctic region as well as in Eastern Europe. Until 1999, Norway was the only NATO ally with a land border with Russia. Military planners are working on this strategic fact next week with a military manoeuvre in Norway dubbed “Cold Response”. The military exercise involves 30,000 troops from 27 countries, including 3,000 US marines. These exercises are meant to be held every other year, but because of reluctance from the Trump Administration and Covid, they have not taken place since 2014. This is a pity, because Norway is one of the most strategically placed NATO countries. During World War Two, its long North Atlantic coastline dotted with sheltered fjords, provided Hitler’s navy with a forward base from which to terrorise Allied shipping in the North Atlantic.

In the meantime, Ukrainian Volodomyr Zelensky is pleading for more weapons. The Biden Administration has responded this week by despatching another 2,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles and 2,000 shoulder-launched Javelin launchers, Another 15,000 anti-tank and surface to air missiles are being provided by other European countries, mainly the UK and Sweden. The EU meanwhile has upped its spending on military equipment for Ukraine to $1 billion. Ukraine will need every penny of it. The British and American arms manufacturers are not giving away their equipment. They are selling it, and just one Javelin missile costs $175,000 whether it hits or misses its Russian target.

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Department for International Trade calls for consultation over a new trade deal with Israel

The UK is Israel’s third largest trading partner, but Israel is well down the list for the UK, at about sixtieth.  However, our current trade agreement with Israel is the old European Union one, amended by inserting UK instead of EU, and the Department for International Trade (DIT) wants to upgrade the deal to “something more ambitious.”

Liberal Democrats at last September’s Conference also called for better trade ties with Israel, but they did so with a very important caveat.  They wanted to have a better trading relationship with Israel and also to observe international law, by banning trade in any goods or services from the settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT).  The settlements are, of course, illegal under the Fourth Geneva Convention (4GC), and so is trading with them.

International Law has in recent times been more honoured in the breach than the observance, and the war in Ukraine has reminded us how necessary it is to get important fundamental principles agreed across the globe, and to make sure everyone abides by them.  Signatories to the Geneva Conventions are not abiding by international law if they trade with businesses operating illegally in the OPT.

The DIT is seeking views from interested parties about how the new deal should be shaped, via this link:.  It gives us all an opportunity to say we want to put international law back in its rightful place, at the front and centre of international relations.

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Observations of an expat: Bread

Worried about energy prices? Well, you should start worrying more about the empty bread bin.

Twenty-nine percent of the world’s grain comes from Ukraine and Russia.

Russia, Belarus and Ukraine have banned the export of all grains as a direct consequence of Putin’s War. And, because of our interconnected world, when there is a shortage of one type of grain it has a ripple effect on every other.

Commodity brokers are now predicting shortages and high prices not just for wheat but also for rice, millet, rye, maize, barley, oats and sorghum. This is on top of a 50 percent increase in prices in just six months caused by a 20 percent lower than usual harvest because of climate change issues.

Then there is the impact that less grain will have on livestock production as just about every farm animal needs commercially produced grain. Everything from chicken nuggets to fillet steak is going up.

Vegans and vegetarians will be no better off. Add to the above scenario that all grain and vegetable crops are likely to be hit by a lack of fertiliser as 18 percent of the world’s potash comes from Belarus. That means lower yields and higher prices for everything that grows in the ground.

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Defence and Security: at the heart of liberal societies

In the midst of the pandemic, in summer 2020, the National Liberal Club (located just minutes from the Palace of Westminster) decided to support a group styled the Defence & Security Circle.

This initiative has seen the creation of a programme of regular 60 minute online talks, topical seminars and NATO funded outreach events that touch on some hard issues.

  • Having conversations about the national interest in the national interest.
  • Driven by contemporary issues such as facial recognition technology, cyber security, cultural change in the Armed Forces or “how spies think” the DSC has become a key location in London reaching local, national and international audiences.
  • Always free, often fearless and at times radical, we are proud of our liberal foundations.
  • Having a forum that allows liberal minded people to debate and consider key policy questions and strategic choices was important. Equally valued was a commitment to ensure that the voices promoted were inclusive: a majority of our speakers have been women and one in four contributors have been drawn from minority communities. Ideas matter.

The war in Ukraine reminds us all of the price to be paid when illiberal, toxic and undemocratic regimes feel emboldened to threaten or harm free societies. Peace, security and individual liberty are worthy values to protect and in need defend.

NATO trusted the DSC to run an innovative program to counter fake news and disinformation in December of last year. London, Edinburgh and Manchester – reaching 600 stakeholders.

As an “all party group” we value our origins in the broader liberal progressive tradition shared by so many in the LibDem family. Being non-partisan allows us to also have supporters and participants from across civil society – often those without the ability to be “political” due to their profession or areas of responsibility. It is a space for robust but respectful discourse.

Our next free talk (contact me via [email protected] for a seat) is Monday 4 April: Mark Galeotti (Russia expert, former FCO officer, author and commentator) on the “Weaponisation of Everything.”

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Covid: two years on the Government has abandoned any form of public health strategy

In March 2020, just before the first lockdown, I penned a piece for Lib Dem Voice on the Government being behind the curve in implementing Covid restrictions. Last year in March 2021, I wrote a follow-up article saying we weren’t out of the woods. Now another year on, where are we?

The Office for National Statistics estimated in the week ending 12 March that around 3.3 million people in the UK had COVID-19. Of course, sadly, this increase in cases is now leading to increased hospitalisations and deaths. According to official statistics, There were 13,844 people admitted to hospital with Covid in the week to 19 March and there were 877 deaths in the 7 days to 23 March (up 133 on the previous week).

The fact that Covid patients are now filling up more beds in hospital again means that non-urgent treatment and operations are more likely to be cancelled – compounded by the fact that NHS hospitals are facing critical under-staffing, both because of existing staff shortages and because more NHS staff are now themselves off sick with Covid.

Many health experts are deeply concerned about all this. Where is the plan? Almost all restrictions have now been lifted, certainly in England, and people can no longer protect themselves in public spaces such as on trains and in shops as mask wearing has fallen off sharply. For people who are clinically vulnerable – maybe because they have an immunological disorder or because they on medication that lowers their immunity – this is quite a frightening prospect. The fact that the Government is now introducing fourth Covid jabs for people aged over 75 or those who are clinically vulnerable is very welcome, but otherwise letting Covid rip through the population seems irresponsible, especially as there is evidence that more people are becoming reinfected with the newer Omicron variant. The herd immunity argument never worked.

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Spring Statement 2022: perspective of an unpaid carer

Yesterday, 23rd March 2022, Rishi Sunak delivered his Spring Statement 2022. It included a 5p cut in fuel duty and a rise in the National Insurance threshold by £3,000. But what caught my eye, on a personal note, was the lack of support for unpaid carers.

I have been looking after my grandfather now for nearly 2 years, in that time receiving £270 a month for my work. Now, I don’t begrudge looking after my grandfather as I want to keep him alive and well for as long as possible; my parents, grandparents and I have always lived in the same house together since I was born, so it’s always felt like having a second set of parents for me.

But something that I can’t ignore is the way this government has consistently ignored unpaid carers. Sunak has so far delivered 3 budgets as Chancellor, with no help or support given to us. The gap between the government’s perception of reality, and reality itself, is widening week-on-week. Amid a cost of living crisis, they think £270 a month is enough to cover rising bills – that’s let not forget, have increased due to their own lack of economic intervention – and then go as far as to expect us to be grateful?

Caring for my grandfather is a privilege, as I know I’m playing an important role in maintaining his health and well-being. But caring comes at a cost; adding to my already fragile mental health through 24/7 worrying, sacrificing 2 years of my life to pick up where this government has failed. And on that very point, this government assumes we only care for loved ones 5 hours a day, as we’re paid for 35 hours a week.

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Tony Greaves

It is a year today since Tony died.  I have been talking with other friends and his family about how best to remember him in a way which captures both the essence of the man and the extent of his contribution to Liberalism and his party over 60 years of activism.  I finish by asking how we to remember Tony and build on the massive legacy of his life in Liberalism.

Tony had the most secure moral compass for Liberalism of anyone I have known.  Time and again, his reaction to events demonstrated an instinctively Liberal mind.  He applied Liberalism as a profound value to challenges, believing that deep, Liberal values would offer the best solutions.  His immediate responses often offered a clear analysis and understanding which showed the natural direction for Liberal political action.  One reason why he was dismissive and angry at times at people with power in his Party and beyond was simply that they didn’t have that instinctive grasp of a Liberal response.  He could be difficult at times, but it would be worth thinking as well about how often he was actually right on the substance of matters.

Tony was the single most important contributor to the growth of the Liberal Party and the Liberal Democrats between 1970 and 1997.  By-election victories built on the ideas and campaigning methods of community politics as did the growth of local parties and council groups from wards to towns to counties to regions to success in Parliamentary elections.  The Association of Liberal Councillors led that work and Tony led the ALC during those formative years.  Those successes were based, more than on any other single element, on Tony’s painstaking, committed, patient work with activists, campaigners and Council Groups to help them, often one by one, to learn about campaigning and winning; always emphasising the need to find an activist’s personal voice that was securely founded in Liberal ideas, along with a commitment to making a Liberal difference in the life of a community or a person.

That’s why he found it difficult to understand those who see liberalism as being defined by a long process of producing disconnected policies.  For him, the policy was the Liberal value, applied to a circumstance.  He wanted those deep, Liberal values to drive every single response, from potholes through to global relations.  What unites us as Liberals is not loads of policies, it’s one approach to everything.

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An informal Lib-Lab pact makes sense – but is it a poison chalice for the Lib Dems?

On paper, an informal Lib-Lab pact at the next General Election makes sense. Whatever you want to call it – informal, non-aggressive, unofficial, secret – an agreement is reportedly in place, and it makes political sense.

It makes political sense as we are in a unique situation. The Lib Dems and Labour have not always been on friendly terms, particularly at the local level where campaigning styles often clash, and in some constituencies and Councils they never will be. Yet at the next General Election (if it takes place in 2024) the Conservatives will have been in power for 14 years, and for all their faults, have arguably played a good electoral strategy and outmanoeuvred Labour and the Lib Dems. If the Tories are to lose their majority, it will require a united front from the opposition to target the voters disillusioned by partygate, failing to see the benefits of Brexit and unlikely to benefit from levelling up.

Labour knows they can’t take on the Tories on their own. They are unlikely to regain seats in Scotland and will face an uphill struggle to win back ‘Red Wall’ seats in traditional Labour heartlands. The Party is also facing huge funding issues, with unions slashing donations, meaning resources are thin on the ground. The Lib Dems on the other hand know they can win traditional ‘Blue Wall’ seats, as demonstrated in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire, to take crucial seats away from the Conservatives. And the Conservatives are worried about the local electoral machine that the Lib Dems have deployed in these by-elections. Making a speech at Conservative Spring Conference last weekend, Party Chairman Oliver Dowden said the Tories are “going to have to fight this one seat by seat… doorstep by doorstep” and that it needs “to be reminding people that the best way to tackle the cost of living locally”.

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The Homes for Ukrainians Scheme does not meet the needs of refugees

Scenes of chaos, disinformation, unhelpfulness, layers of bureaucracy; these are some of my comments after seeing what some of the Ukrainian refuges had to go through while trying to make an appointment with the British Consulate in Warsaw. Some people, who fled the war, travelled in freezing conditions for days, had to make a 12 hour round trip to meet a Home Office official. Unacceptable? Most definitely.

I agree that Britain has a long standing tradition of welcoming refugees. However before we start congratulating the Home Office on their efforts to welcome our Ukrainian friends, it is worth remembering that Poland has already provided home and shelter for 1,916,000 refugees from Ukraine (figures from 17th March) whilst other neighbouring countries have taken 283,000 (Hungary), 229,000 (Slovakia), 491,000. Interestingly, Ireland has taken 6,600 whereas UK so far only 3,000, as of 14th March.

So what awaits Ukrainian refugees, who might want to move to a safe country or, to be more precise, are desperate to settle secure? On Monday, 14th March, the government launched the Home for Ukrainians Scheme. The scheme itself went live on Friday, 18th March.

The setup is quite “interesting”. Although around 44,000 have already signed up to the scheme, the government, in my view, made a wrong decision in terms of how the process works. Essentially, Ukrainian applicants must have named people in the UK willing to sponsor them. Only in the last few days, I had a number of phone calls from residents of Welwyn Garden City, who are really keen to support our Ukrainian friends, however without having any information about the country, culture or any connections with Ukraine, each individual will have to heavily rely on some of the Ukrainians already living in the UK. We are quite lucky in Welwyn Hatfield as we have worked a lot in recent weeks with members of the Ukrainian community, who might be able to “match” individuals in Ukraine, with people in the UK, who are happy to move to Britain.

I might be cynical, however the British government is urging the public to come forward to help as we are in the middle of a global humanitarian crisis. In my view, this clearly demonstrates that the government doesn’t want to provide the adequate infrastructure to support the scheme and it relies on the good will of British people. I wonder whether this is also because of Home Office recent stance and reputation on immigration. I’ve seen first-hand, in my day job, how hard it was for Afghan families to navigate the complexity of the Home Offices internal procedures. An inhumane and impossible task, to say the least.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

The world’s television cameras have shifted to the tragedy of Ukraine. But that does not mean that the problems elsewhere have disappeared. If anything they have worsened as the money and attention has shifted to the danger of a European, East-West war. There are now 89 million displaced people in the world. The greatest number ever in history. Here’s a very brief summary of some of the worst:

Syria celebrated (if that is the correct word) the 11th anniversary of the start of its civil war this week (15 March). It has, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, the dubious distinction of being the centre of the world’s largest displacement of people. The death toll is estimated at 500,000. Six million are internally displaced and five million have fled the country. The biggest number of refugees are in Turkey – 3.7 million. The UNHCR reports that it has only received seven percent of the $465 million it needs for 2022 to provide basic food and shelter. One of the hardest hit areas is Northern Syria where 1.5 million people are living in snow-covered tents spread over 1,489 separate camps. The problems are not confined to the areas where refugees have fled. In about 100 villages in the government-controlled Aleppo region the people are suffering from the absence of drinking water. Possibly the only good news in Syria is that some of Assad’s soldiers are being diverted to Ukraine to help the Russians and the Russians may be unable to provide the assistance to Assad that they have contributed to date.

The Ethiopian war between the government of Abiy Ahmed and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front continues to rage out of the spotlight. So far it is estimated that there are 1.7 million internally displaced people and 500,000 in refugee camps in Sudan. The war has also spread to the Amhar region as the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front attempted to march through that territory to attack Addis Ababa.  Because of a blockade by federal forces no food or medical aid has been delivered to Tigray Province since mid-December. Three-quarters of Tigray’s health facilities have been destroyed. Forget about covid jabs. Both sides are reported to be guilty of rape and murder and have been burning crops, slaughtering livestock and destroying grain stocks. The result is famine. The director-general of the World Health Organisation Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (himself an Ethiopian) has described the situation as “catastrophic.”

The BBC World Affairs Editor John Simpson has described the aftermath of the war in Afghanistan as the “destruction of a nation.” Before the Taliban victory 80 percent of the Afghanistan’s budget was derived from foreign aid – mainly from the US. But a humiliated and angry Washington has frozen $10 billion of Afghanistan’s foreign reserves, $7 billion of which is directly held in the Federal Reserve Bank. There is talk of half of it being released for humanitarian relief with the rest going to the victims of the 9/11 attack. The Afghan people certainly need the relief. Roughly 85 percent of a population of 38.4 million are facing starvation. Unemployment is up. Food Prices are up. The Afghan currency is plummeting. Because they are malnourished, there is a measles epidemic among the children. Covid is rampant. The UN has asked for $4.4 billion for basic foodstuffs. By the beginning of March $1.4 billion has been raised.

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Observations of an expat: crunch meeting

Next Thursday and probably Friday and possibly the weekend – will be one of the most important dates in world history. NATO and EU leaders meeting in Brussels will decide – or not to decide – what to do in Ukraine.

Ukraine will then decide whether to continue fighting and how. Ditto Vladimir Putin.

Australia, Japan and South Korea’s foreign and defence policies will be dramatically affected. China may come off its rickety fence. India and the OPEC countries will have to make big decisions under heavy pressure from both sides of the warring coin.

International markets – stock markets, commodity markets, oil and gas markets—will either plunge or soar at the news from Brussels.

The world will wait to hear whether we have moved a giant step closer to nuclear Armageddon or inched away from it.

The variations are endless and each has known and unknown consequences. With the threat of nuclear war hanging over every decision, the room for error is nil.

If Vladimir Putin did not possess the world’s largest nuclear arsenal then the answer would be relatively easy: Attack and drive the Russians out. But he does, and he has threatened to use them. The question then arises: Is Putin Bluffing?

More to the point, can the Western Alliance afford to risk the possibility that he is not bluffing?

If he is not bluffing then there is an accepted three-stage nuclear escalation with a pause after the first two to give either side an opportunity to back off: battlefield nuclear weapons which would probably be confined to Ukraine; Intermediate-range nuclear weapons which would be confined to European targets and, then of course, strategic systems which would involve hitting the US.

Putin, however, refuses to play by the rules. He may go straight for American targets, which is why Joe Biden will block anything that could lead to a nuclear exchange.

So the option of committing NATO troops to Ukraine is off the table because Putin has threatened to respond with the nuclear option. That is, it is off the table for now.

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Liberal Democrat Technology Project: Update

This is (hopefully) the first of many regular updates on the project. We’re aiming to update every two weeks.

We’ll also be posting more regular updates on our newly unveiled Technology Blog which is hugely exciting – because it’s been built on our brand new website platform, Fleet.

Fleet is intended to replace both Nationbuilder and Prater Raines FOCI for the party.

We’re building it in collaboration with the team at Prater Raines and it’s based on the open source Typo3 framework – which is widely used by organisations with a federated structure (like us!). We’ll also be heavily customising the default version of Typo3 to make it easier for Liberal Democrats to use.

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We must adopt a Jenkinsite approach to support trans people

Trans rights are human rights, trans men are men, trans women are women and nothing will ever change this.

It is becoming clear, however, that a minority of our citizens and even representatives in our parliament, Trans Exclusionary Radical Feminists – or “TERFs” – do not feel the same way, choosing to see trans people as threats, and choose to attack and undermine them simply for existing, which I cannot help but regard as foolish and wrong. Trans women are women and trans men are men; how can they be threats when all they’re doing is living their lives, no different from you and me?

TERFs refuse to acknowledge that trans people are who they say they are, and in doing so undermine the feminist movement – the cause they claim to defend – but in reality are adding to the oppression and discrimination faced under the patriarchy. It is a reminder of how far we’ve strayed from the “civilised society” – tolerance, openness, inclusivity, the strengthening of individual rights and the abolishment of illiberal laws that prohibit people from living their lives to the fullest extent – the idea that liberal icon Roy Jenkins championed as Home Secretary under then-Labour Party leader Harold Wilson. If it weren’t for him, Britain would not have decriminalised homosexuality, removed theatre censorship, legalised abortions, banned racial discrimination in work, to name but a few of Jenkins’ accomplishments.

But more importantly than what he achieved, is the ideology he brought to the role of Home Secretary: social libertarianism. While many will read that, and think of the likes of Friedrich Hayek, free markets were not the aim of Jenkins’ reforms. But instead, so long as a person brings no harm to themselves or others and follows the rule of law, then who are we to say their identity is invalid? TERFs disagree with this sentiment, actively limiting women’s rights and supporting the strengthening of the patriarchy through harsher policing and state intervention in the lives of individuals.

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