Ten predictions for the general election televised party leader debates

1. Military language will be the order of the day for debate pundits. Fighting to the finish, knock out blows and accounts of who is ahead on points: deploy your military phraseology at dawn.

2. 99% of pundits who have previously expressed support for a party will declare that party’s leader the real winner from each debate – even if the party and leader did not appear in the debate.

3. Each party participating in the debate will say beforehand that its leader is not going to easily best the other leaders – and will say afterwards that its leader did easily …

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged and | 15 Comments
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The 12 Op-Eds of Christmas (Day 12)

Throughout the festive season, LDV has been offering our readers a load of repeats another chance to read the 12 most popular opinion articles which have appeared on the blog since 1st January, 2009. The most-read article on LDV of 2009 was by LDV co-editor, Stephen Tall, and appeared on 11th April …

Join the campaign to Shred John Prescott’s £1.5m Pension

Today the Government, in the person of Harriet Harman, announced it would legislate retrospectively to terminate Sir Fred Goodwin’s £650,000 a year pension, five months after Labour business minister Lord Myners agreed to the deal. I don’t always agree with the Telegraph’s Jeff Randall, but I think he’s bang-on-the-money with this judgement, written even before Ms Harman’s latest desperate attempts to extricate Labour from the hole into which they’ve dug themselves:

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Council admits ‘mistake’ over gritting deputy leader’s private road

Whilst many of us have been cursing the failure of council gritters across the country, Cheshire West and Chester council appeared to have plenty of spare capacity. As several inches of snow fell, causing chaos on the county’s roads, the council’s Deputy Leader, Conservative Councillor Les Ford had the private road to his home heavily salted by a gritter lorry.

According to the Chester Chronicle, concerned resident Tom Farrall, 78, confronted the driver after seeing the gritting lorry ignoring local through roads for the second time. He said: “The council gritted his road but they didn’t grit any of the other roads. …

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LibLink … Nick Clegg: The Liberal Democrats are not for sale

Over at The Times, Nick Clegg has penned an article setting out, perhaps in the clearest detail yet, exactly how the Lib Dems will respond in the event of a ‘hung Parliament’. He begins by noting the heat-without-light debate that the new year has brought:

Much of what we have heard so far is unsurprising: absurd pledges on spending, vitriolic attacks on cuts. But one development is new: both the old parties now claim to be almost identical to the Liberal Democrats. David Cameron and Gordon Brown are ostentatiously flirting with Liberal Democrat voters, clumsily trying to woo them —

…

Posted in LibLink | Tagged , and | 7 Comments

Belated LDV statporn for 2009. And my answer to the question, does it matter?

Call it laziness, call it New Year ennui, but I’d half a mind not to re-commence my monthly LDV statporn posts. I realise they can be a little bit self-congratulatory and/or self-obsessed. But I’ve finally got round to doing it. And here’s why.

First, because I think it’s only fair to LDV’s readers and, more importantly, our contributors (both those who write for us, and those who comment on what’s written here) to know how many people read this site. It is not my blog, or that of any of the small, volunteer team who runs LDV: it is …

Posted in Op-eds and Site news | Tagged and | 2 Comments
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Dizzy Thinks for me

I was going to do a post about the inconsistencies in the Conservative Party’s health manifesto (it’s got something for everyone: more targets, fewer targets; more political control, less political control) but Dizzy Thinks has pretty much written it for me already. So to find out why I’m not  impressed with the Tory plans go and read a Tory blogger.

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Ming Campbell answers questions from readers in The Independent

Ming Campbell has been answering a wide range of questions:

What is Cleggism as a political philosophy?

Did the dream of proportional representation die with Roy Jenkins?

How can Liberal Democrats withstand the onslaught of Ashcroft money in marginals in the South-west?

Cameron is right about the genuine symmetry between Tories and Lib Dems. So why won’t you admit you’ll prop him up in a hung parliament?

and more.

Read the full set of questions and answers here.

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Cameron’s confusion over Tory marriage tax plans

It can be hard pre-launching an election campaign, can’t it? Here’s the PoliticsHome rolling news front page from today:

At 3.04 pm, the site reported:

David Cameron said he could not guarantee a Conservative government would be able to offer a tax break to married couples, despite having personally supported such a move. “It’s something within a parliament I would definitely hope to do,” he said, but insisted the state of the public finances prevented him from offering any guarantee. “We’re not able to give people absolute certainty

…

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Vince: Tory sums do not stack up

Lib Dem Shadow Chancellor Vince Cable has wasted no time in pointing out the huge gaps in the arithmetic of the Conservatives’ draft election manifesto. Earlier today, at the launch of the manifesto, David Cameron stated that his proposed inheritance tax cut would be paid for by taxing non-doms, saying:

“Every other spending pledge we have made, every tax pledge we have made, is fully costed and fully set out. If you take for example the pledge on inheritance tax, which we’ve said is not for a first budget but is a pledge for a parliament, that is to be paid for by taxing the non-doms, the people who live here but do not pay full tax here.”

However Vince was critical of both the principle of the inheritance tax cut and the Tories’ sums. He pointed out that the annual gap between the revenue from non-doms and the lost inheritance tax will grow from £350 million in the first year of the next parliament to almost £1.5 billion by 2015, a total of almost £6 billion. He said:

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Gibberish, duplication and stating the obvious – but which party?

Some Christmas Quiz questions for you. Who said:

1.‘Around a quarter of public spending is controlled at local level; the rest is directed from the centre’

2.‘There are 102 different local authority spending streams, including 49 in education and children’s services, 11 in adult social care and six in policing’

3.‘We will also cut consultancy spend by 50% and marketing and communications spend by 25%’.

Is it a first glimpse at the Liberal Democrat manifesto?

Or (dare I say it) the Tory manifesto?

I will give a clue. The same document also includes the following pledge:

We will introduce best practice tariffs in the NHS by

…

Posted in Op-eds | 1 Comment

The 12 Op-Eds of Christmas (Day 11)

Throughout the festive season, LDV is offering our readers a load of repeats another chance to read the 12 most popular opinion articles which have appeared on the blog since 1st January, 2009. The penultimate article, the second most-read LDV op-ed of 2009, was by Lib Dem MP Jo Swinson, and originally appeared on 26th April …

Jo Swinson writes… Experiences of a Female MP: Overcoming the Ultimate Old Boys Club

On 8th April, 2009, Jo Swinson MP delievered the Elizabeth Wallace Memorial Lecture at Glasgow University, hosted by the Glasgow Association of University Women. It was entitled ‘Experiences of a Female MP: Overcoming the Ultimate Old Boys Club’, and Jo has kindly agreed for it to be published on Liberal Democrat Voice.

Let me take you on a tour of Parliament

A couple of months after I was elected, I went on the official tour of the Houses of Parliament, as I figured I really ought to know a bit more about the institution I had been elected to serve in. Being shown around the building by an expert tour guide with a vast knowledge of Parliament’s history and heritage was absolutely fascinating; in fact I would recommend the tour to anyone (and it can be booked for free through your local MP).

Wonderful as it was to see the finery of the House of Lords, the grandeur of the chilly and cavernous Westminster Hall, and the macabre interest of looking at the death warrant of Charles I, none of these were my favourite part of the tour.

The best bit, in my opinion, is hearing the tale of one fairly unremarkable marble statue in St Stephen’s Hall, that of the second Viscount Falkland. The tour guide draws attention to a hairline fracture in the sword that Falkland is plunging into the marble plinth at his feet.

This is where on 27th April 1909 one brave suffragette, Miss Margery Humes, chained herself to the statue to protest to MPs about votes for women. In order to remove her, the sword had to be broken, and the repair is still visible today. It took another decade for women to win the right to vote, and it wasn’t until twenty years later, in 1929, that women could vote on the same terms as men.

Since then we’ve had twenty General Elections, and women now make up `20% of our MPs. In some ways, I think this is fantastic progress. When my 95-year old grandmother was born, women could not vote. Within her lifetime she has seen women win the vote, win elections, and hold key offices of state including Prime Minister.

At the same time, the pace of change can feel frustratingly slow. Parliament often seems stuck in a time warp – in more ways than one – and especially when you look at the gender representation. It affects the culture and the atmosphere: aggressive, confrontational, petty point-scoring. I’m not saying that no women MPs engage in this kind of behaviour in the House of Commons, but the puerile nature of some debates and question sessions is worryingly reminiscent of unruly boys in a boarding school. The etymology is revealing: puer is the Latin word for boy.

A wonderfully rewarding job

That said, the job of an MP is a fabulous one. Being able to devote your life to the causes you feel passionately about, and stand up for people in the area you live is a great motivation for getting out of bed in the morning!

Contrary to popular belief, being an MP is not all about making speeches. There’s an element of public speaking, but mostly to small groups in the constituency, and it gets much easier (and less stressful!) with practice. Most of my time is actually spent listening to the views of local people and trying to work out solutions to problems in the constituency, and then taking up those issues in Parliament.

Even Parliament is much more consensual and constructive than is portayed by the media. Sitting on a Select Committee means working across party lines, hearing evidence from experts and making recommendations to Government. PMQs aside, many sessions in the House of Commons chamber allow genuine, interesting debate instead of political theatre.

The skills of negotiating, empathising with people, and bringing people together are ones that come naturally to many women. While the timings of key events like votes or Committee debates are determined by others, as an MP you are essentially your own boss, which means much of your diary can be organised around your life and commitments. You can plan your Parliamentary and constituency appointments such that you guarantee time for the non-work stuff, whether it’s visiting your 95-year old grandmother or attending your child’s school parents’ evening.

Those involved in politics need to do better at “selling” the job of an MP, if we are to attract under-represented groups who currently think it isn’t for them. I very much hope that one of the outcomes of the Speaker’s Conference will be for Parliament to undertake specific outreach work to encourage people to consider standing for election.

Most women MPs I speak to would not have stood were it not for someone else suggesting the idea.

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Daily View 2×2: 4 January 2010

Morning all, and welcome to LDV’s ‘Back-to-Work’* edition of the Daily View, on the day in 1642 King Charles I sent soldiers to arrest members of Parliament, and Rose Heilbron became the first female judge to sit at the Old Bailey in London, in 1972. And a very happy birthday to Sir Isaac Newton, born 367 years ago today, and chef Rick Stein, 62 today.

* For those of us with cushy office-based jobs.

2 Must-Read Blog Posts

What are other Liberal Democrat bloggers saying? Here are two posts that caught my eye from the Liberal Democrat Blogs aggregator:

…

Posted in Daily View | Tagged , and | 1 Comment

Top of the Blogs: The Golden Dozen #150

Yay, we’ve reached a ton-and-a-half 🙂 … Welcome to the 150th of our weekly round-ups from the Lib Dem blogosphere – the first of this decade – featuring the seven most popular stories according to click-throughs from the Aggregator (27th December 2009 – 2nd January 2010), together with a hand-picked quintet, usually courtesy of LibDig, you might otherwise have missed.

Don’t forget, by the way, you can now sign up to receive the Golden Dozen direct to your email inbox – just click here – ensuring you never miss out on the best of Lib Dem blogging.

As ever, let’s start with the most popular post, and work our way down:

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High on drugs, yet soft on drivers?

Just before Christmas, the Government published two media releases on the subject of crime and sentencing. The first concerned making several ‘legal highs’ illegal; the second announced a review of the maximum sentences for dangerous driving.

What grabbed my attention was the current similarity of sentences for very different crimes. Currently the maximum sentence for dangerous driving is just two years – the same as for possession of amphetamines and less than half the maximum sentence for possession of cannabis or the previously legal high known as ‘spice’. So in the government’s mind, having a small spliff in your pocket is more than twice as bad as putting a child in a wheelchair by knowingly driving a car with defective brakes or by driving on the wrong side of the road at speed.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , and | 4 Comments

20,000 road signs in kilometers – an evil EU plot?

This is the first Christmas that anyone travelling on our motorways really couldn’t avoid signs measuring distance in – whisper it – kilometers.
trunk road marker

Every 500 meters or so along just about every motorway – and some trunk roads – in Britain, one of these blue signs helpfully tells the the stranded, mobile-phone wielding, motorist not only which road and carriageway she’s on but how many kilometers she is along it. Not miles. Not even good old British furlongs or barleycorns (which is a shame). But evil revolutionary French kilometers.

Some EU plot force …

Posted in Europe / International | 67 Comments

General election prediction: new figures out

With new polling figures in, the general election prediction model we covered in November has churned out a new prediction for the next general election:

New prediction: Conservative lead of 9% with 315 seats (11 short of an overall majority)
Previous prediction: Conservative lead of 10% with 322 seats (4 short of an overall majority)

Background to prediction

In November Lib Dem Voice published an exclusive general election prediction, based on the work of a group of academics who have analysed polling data (not just party support levels) in the run up to previous British elections:

Their predictive model works on a three-month lagged structure;

…

Posted in General Election and News | 11 Comments

The 12 Op-Eds of Christmas (Day 10)

Throughout the festive season, LDV is offering our readers a load of repeats another chance to read the 12 most popular opinion articles which have appeared on the blog since 1st January, 2009. The third most-read LDV op-ed of 2009 was by LDV co-editor Mark Pack, and originally appeared on 23rd March …

Eating a vegetarian meal = suspicious terrorist activity

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Daily View 2×2: 3 January 2010

It’s Sunday. It’s 7am. It’s time to learn how to dig a hole, but first the news.

2 Must-Read Blog Posts

What are other Liberal Democrat bloggers saying? Here’s are two posts that have caught the eye from the Liberal Democrat Blogs aggregator:

Spotted any other great posts in the last day from blogs that aren’t on the aggregator? Do post up a comment sharing them with us all.

2 Big Stories

Islamic march plan sparks row in military town

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Parties on a war footing – but what are they fighting for?

New Year, old sabre-rattling. Gordon Brown and David Cameron are parading their leadership credentials, with a view to capturing an entire nation – the UK, that is.

David Cameron made a speech (transcript here) in Oxfordshire today saying that the country needs a change of direction and a new leadership:

“We can’t go on in these difficult times with a weak prime minister and a divided government.”

You can almost hear the Tory munitions factory roar as they forge this, strengthen that and defeat the other.

And here’s Gordon Brown on New Year’s Eve:

“The Detroit plot thankfully failed. But it has been a wake-up call for the ongoing battles we must wage not just for security against terror but for the hearts and minds of a generation.”

It’s a common political (and journalistic, and marketing) technique to play to people’s fears, but what next in the Prime Ministerial arms race – Brown and Cameron appearing on the decks of rival aircraft carriers, squeezed into military uniform à la George Bush?

Neither leader, for all their fighting talk, seems to have heard of liberty.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , , , , , and | 1 Comment

Fall-out over Tory selection meeting in Oldham

From the Oldham Evening Chronicle:

A selection meeting sparked a huge fall-out amid allegations of threats and candidate rigging.

Oldham East and Saddleworth Conservatives chairman Barbara Jackson will stand down in protest, while former Councillor Chris Shyne called it a farce after only five candidates stood for five seats.

Posted in News | Tagged and | 8 Comments

How you can help Liberal Democrat Voice

The Voice is only a success because of the interest and support from our readers. For many people just lurking and reading the site is all they want to do – and that’s fine, we’re grateful for people taking the time to read the site.

You can though help us continue to produce interesting content for a growing audience. Here are three simple ways:

1. Let us have your tips for stories. Perhaps there’s something outrageous going on in your local council? Or you’re an expert in a particular area and have spotted a story other people have missed? Or you’ve seen …

Posted in Site news | 2 Comments

The 12 Op-Eds of Christmas (Day 9)

Throughout the festive season, LDV is offering our readers a load of repeats another chance to read the 12 most popular opinion articles which have appeared on the blog since 1st January, 2009. The fourth most-read LDV op-ed of 2009 was by former LDV contributing editor Alix Mortimer, and originally appeared on 24th February …

In defence of Chris Grayling

No, not his views on policing. His expenses. Obviously, I’m far from Grayling’s biggest fan, but it’s the tabloids’ insistent foaming that gives one pause for thought. “If you thought Jacqui Smith was bad,” they have screamed for the last few mornings, “Look at THIS! With EXTRA ADDED OUTRAGE!” The latest “expose” from the Mirror is hopefully titled:

Fury as three more MPs rake in cash for second homes – Exclusive

The “exclusive” element appears to be the work experience kid looking up the addresses of various Tory and Labour MPs and measuring their distance from Westminster on Google Maps, then pinging off a couple of emails to the Land Registry. All the President’s Men this is not.

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Radical and different: our proposition to voters

As a party, we get increasingly defined as one of the ‘3 main parties’, and accordingly lumped together with Labour and Tories as being the same. This view is encouraged by Cameron’s foolish “we’re all the same really” message (as that’s really what the voters want to hear Dave. Let’s not even bother debating policy anymore, eh?).

It’s a consequence of our increased success, but as a result we need to remind voters that we are the radical alternative to the Lab/Con status quo, and that we are most definitely not offering more of the same. If I was designing our manifesto …

Posted in Op-eds | 14 Comments

What the papers say…

Ministers are trying to get their hands on hospital charity-cash … Labour kick up over calls for an immediate by-election … a quarter of all MPs now  plan to quit … and there are 20,0000 council officers with the powers to search your home.

Tories trying to buy power, says Straw – The Independent, 30.12.09

David Cameron is today accused by a senior Cabinet minister of attempting to “buy” victory at the general election with a US-style campaign dominated by advertising. Jack Straw, the Justice Secretary, predicts the Tory campaign will the most lavish in political history and …

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Daily View 2×2: 1 January 2010

Happy New (General Election) Year!

On this day in 1973, the UK joined the European Community, along with Denmark and the Republic of Ireland. On January 1, 2002, Euro coins and banknotes became legal tender in twelve of the European Union’s member states.

It’s a quarter of a century since Britain’s first mobile phone call was made. In a seemingly random intersection of the Fates, comedian Ernie Wise was calling from St Katherine’s Dock to a room above a Newbury curry house – the then office of a little company called Vodafone.

2 Interesting Stories

Is a Labour-Tory coalition unthinkable? Only until you think about it
Martin Kettle muses in the Guardian on a hung Parliament:

It seems innocent to assume that either Labour or the Tories would automatically turn first to the Liberal Democrats in those circumstances – or that the Lib Dems would necessarily deliver. The big parties could calculate that they would be better off in a marriage of convenience with a historic enemy they respected, from which they could withdraw with dignity when the moment was right, rather than to embark on a more permanent entanglement with a Lib Dem party which at bottom they each despise.

The more one looks at the evolutionary dynamics of British politics, the more serious the grand coalition option may one day become. Is a Labour-Conservative deal really unthinkable? Only until you start thinking about it.

At least the next government won’t be decided on the toss of a coin… or will it?

Coin tossing through the ages

The Telegraph has an interesting history, including this:

Posted in Daily View and Europe / International | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , and | 5 Comments

Resolve to communicate better with your members

One of the many interesting and challenging jobs I am tasked with as a member of the exec of Nottingham Lib Dems is to produce a members newsletter five times a year. We have a big events programme built up of lots of easy-to-organise events, and so much of the content is taken up with the details and information about those.

But a recent training event with staff from Members Services at Lib Dem HQ set me thinking about what better could be in our members newsletter. Thinking back to how and why I joined the Lib Dems it …

Posted in News | 5 Comments

The 12 Op-Eds of Christmas (Day 8)

Throughout the festive season, LDV is offering our readers a load of repeats another chance to read the 12 most popular opinion articles which have appeared on the blog since 1st January, 2009. The fifth most-read LDV op-ed of 2009 was by LDV co-editor Mark Pack, and originally appeared on 8th September …

29% of seats have not changed hands since 1945

Cross-posted from The Wardman Wire:

A major part of the point of a democratic electoral system is that those elected to public office can be held to account by the public for their actions. The anger we often see over …

Posted in Op-eds | 4 Comments

Forthcoming candidate selections

Courtesy of the LibDems4Parliament website, here is the list of candidate selections closing this month:

  • Montgomeryshire – Prospective Welsh Assembly Candidate (02 Jan 2010)
  • High Peak – PPC (08 Jan 2010)
  • Battersea – PPC (18 Jan 2010)
  • Tooting – PPC (18 Jan 2010)
  • Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire – Prospective Scottish Parliamentary Candidate (22 Jan 2010)

For further details on how you could become the Liberal Democrat prospective candidate in any of these constituencies see http://libdems4parliament.org.uk/events. The site also have further information and contact details if you’re interested in finding out more about how to become a candidate more generally.

Posted in Selection news | 3 Comments

Five tech tips for the new year: learn how to promote a site through leaflets

Each day this week I’m giving a tip related to computers and campaigning. The exact details of how you follow each tip will vary depending on your own situation, so if you’re not quite sure what to do by all means pop up a question in the comments.

Today’s tip: stop thinking that just sticking a web address on a leaflet is a good way to promote the local Liberal Democratwebsite.

Yup, you read that right. Certainly, leafleting can be a crucial tool for generating more traffic to Liberal Democrat websites. But simply sticking a web address somewhere in the masthead is …

Posted in Online politics | Tagged | 1 Comment

Happy new year!

Happy new year and best wishes to everyone fighting elections this year. Well, the Lib Dems amongst you at least 🙂

Spare a thought though for another group of people facing an election in 2010. Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe (Zanu-PF) is talking of calling an election during the year. At the last election up to 200 opposition MDC supporters were murdered by Zanu-PF supporters.  The bravery of those in the MDC who are willing to contest another election is an example to us all.

Posted in News | Tagged and | 1 Comment
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