So far:
An exit poll has predicted 10 seats for the Lib Dems
Paddy says he will publicly eat his hat if that is correct
Paddy’s hat is trending
er…that’s it
Our live blog is here
So far:
An exit poll has predicted 10 seats for the Lib Dems
Paddy says he will publicly eat his hat if that is correct
Paddy’s hat is trending
er…that’s it
Our live blog is here
We are going to be here all night
It’s ten o’clock and the polls have just closed all over the country. From St Agnes island hall in the south to North Unst Public Hall in the north, the presiding officers have just locked the doors and are preparing the ballot boxes for transportation to the local counting centre. I can now say what I like!
There has been much dangerous talk in the election campaign. David Cameron has implied that a government with the tacit support of Scottish MPs would somehow be illegitimate. He has accused Ed Miliband of preparing a “con trick” to enter Downing Street with the support of the SNP. Even Nick Clegg has joined in by referring to a “coalition of the losers” – being a possible bloc of MPs led by the leader of the second largest party.
All this sort of talk must now stop.
If the key Lib Dem aims of the last five years were first to prove that coalition government can work in our majoritarian, outdated democratic system and secondly that Liberal Democrats can be trusted to govern in the national interest and deliver liberal achievements, the election campaign has brought positive news on both fronts.
It is easy to forget how coalition was talked of before the 2010 election. It was the common view of most of the media and political establishment that coalition government, if even possible, would be weak and unambitious at best.
It is therefore a remarkable turnaround for it to be considered quite widely that a coalition this time round (and particularly one involving the Liberal Democrats) would provide the most stable, moderate government.
Bristol University’s student newspaper, epigram, has a piece from Sarah Redrup explaining why she is backing the Lib Dems’ Stephen Williams when she heads to the polling station in Bristol West today:
It may seem strange to some that a 2012-entry student from an under-achieving state school has chosen to support the Liberal Democrats. There are several reasons why I believe, despite the tuition fee debacle, that the Liberal Democrats are a party that represent my interests as a student.
The policies that attracted me the most to the Lib Dems were those addressing the specific barriers to accessing university that I felt whilst at school. One of these is the Liberal Democrats’ 2010 manifesto priority, Pupil Premium , which directed funding towards children and students on free school meals, helping secondary schools like mine address serious attainment gaps.
Throughout polling day, LDV will be running short pieces by readers giving their personal reasons for supporting the Liberal Democrats when they go to the polling station today.
This year, I had to think very hard about this. Despite being a member and campaigning to re-elect Ed Davey, I wasn’t convinced. In a safe seat and subsequently we hear little from any party – my decision therefore had to be made on national lines. None of the parties are trying that hard to bribe single, childless, Twentysomething women so there wasn’t much there to deliberate.
So posits Andrew Duff in his letter to the Guardian warning that ‘If we Lib Dems accept this referendum as part of a new coalition pact, we will bring ruination on ourselves’. Well that’s clear then, isn’t it?
There are two reasons of principle why we should not be seduced by this simple hypothesis, and a third to do with pragmatism.
First, there is the argument that complex issues cannot be dealt with through referendums, and the proposed in/out referendum is somehow alien to our own thinking or political philosophy. The Lib Dems have never subscribed to this Burkean view of the relationship between the electors and the elected. In this period of Government alone we have departed from it three times by holding a referendum on the Alternative Voting system, legislating in the European Union Act 2011 for a referendum should there be a fresh transfer of powers to the EU, and in granting a referendum for a yes/no vote in Scotland. Given that the last issue had the potential to breakup the Union and was the subject of much deliberation, an anti-referendum stance is not one of principle.
The Times’s David Aaronovitch has a piece in today’s newspaper that will put just a bit more wind in the sails of Liberal Democrats heading out for the all-important get out the vote operation.
First, he deals with his local situation in Hampstead and Kilburn in North London:
In other seats I think you should reward bravery and political honesty. We rejected voting reform in 2011 but that shouldn’t force us to cast our own clumsy ballots for candidates purely on the basis of which party they represent. If someone stands out, reward them, whichever party they belong to. Labour’s Stella Creasy in Walthamstow, Naz Shah, also Labour, in Bradford West and the Tories’ Anna Soubry in Broxtowe. I have a candidate in my own constituency of Hampstead and Kilburn, Maajid Nawaz of the Liberal Democrats, who has proved himself far-sighted and courageous. He gets my vote.
So, you have a row with someone on Twitter. Most of us would just shrug it off and get on with our lives. Not John Nicolson, the SNP candidate up against Jo Swinson.
After a Twitter exchange with Federal Policy Committee member Belinda Brooks-Gordon, he blocked her and then took the unusual step of writing to her employer.
The Daily Record has the story:
East Dunbartonshire hopeful John Nicolson sent a bizarre email to the master of Birbeck College in London after the fiery Twitter exchange with Dr Belinda Brooks-Gordon.
The lecturer in forensic psychology is standing for the Lib Dems in the Cities of London and Westminster seat and had voiced her support for Nicolson’s opponent Jo Swinson.
Brooks-Gordon had referred to former BBC journalist Nicolson’s property portfolio in London and suggested he could return to the city and questioned his credentials as a local candidate.
Nicolson joined the Twitter exchange to rubbish the claim.
But he did not let the matter rest there and decided to send off an email to Brooks-Gordon’s boss at the college, which is part of the University of London.
Belinda made a very good point, asking what he would do if a constituent disagreed with him or criticised him. Would he be complaining to their boss, too?
I kicked off the campaign with this post and I thought I’d re-run it the night before we head to the polls. I wrote a book chapter about the coalition in the shadow of a rollercoaster. That’s how the last five years have felt. There have been moments when I’ve winced and moments when I have been immensely proud of our ministers. All in all, though, Britain is in a much better place than it would have been without us. All that horrible stuff you see in the Tory manifesto about banning non-specified non violent extremism, all the stuff about taking all benefits from young people, all the illiberal, immigrant-bashing, poor-demonising, rich-enriching nonsense wouldn’t in their manifesto. They would already be law. I hope that the government elected tomorrow is a force for economic fairness and stability, transformational political change and has an open and internationalist approach. If there are Liberal Democrats in it, it will tick all of these boxes. Anyway, here are my thoughts from five weeks ago.
This post will be open to new and infrequent commenters.
I’m not going to lie, when we went into coalition with the Tories, I did not feel comfortable with it. Working with the party who had destroyed the country I grew up during the 80s in was never going to be easy. It’s not about comfort or ease, though. It’s about doing good and enacting liberal values. We’ve made mistakes – howlers, even. Who hasn’t? Can you say that you’ve got through the last five years error free? We have much to show for it. For every child who hasn’t had to spend months in Yarl’s Wood, for every disadvantaged child who has new opportunities at school, for those who benefit from reforms to mental health, for those who have workplace pensions, for pensioners benefitting from the triple lock, for those people across the world who benefit from our aid. for those who are now free to marry the people they love, it’s been worth it. Despite all the constraints on us having only 8% of the MPs and a fifth of the government, we have made a very strong, liberal mark.
Despite everything, this coalition has been the best UK government of my lifetime. That’s quite a long time, however much I like to pretend that I’m a young person. Certainly the likes of Blair, Thatcher and Callaghan didn’t set the bar very high, but we’ve achieved a lot. It’s been a roller coaster and I’m far from satisfied with everything it’s done, but I am incredibly proud of Lib Dem ministers, among them:
Here’s the party’s final party election broadcast, It’s decision time now for all the people we’ve met in the series. The film argues that Liberal Democrats have brought compassion and fairness, built on consensus and co-operation, to Britain.
Your vote will be the difference between a government of self-interest and grievance or a coalition of tolerance and decency.
Here’s the Scottish version and listen to who is voicing it. There’s more emphasis on what we stopped the Tories doing.
Look at this beautiful manatee! Isn’t he adorable?
Poor Newport East candidate Paul Halliday. Like many valiant activists before him, he found a dog on the other end of his finger when delivering leaflets and had to make an unscheduled dash to A & E.
The South Wales Argus has the story:
The Newport East candidate for Thursday’s General Election was making his way down Trostrey Street just off Caerleon Road near Maindee when he met with the hostile reception.
He tried to push some Lib Dem literature through a letterbox but said: “Unbeknown to me there was a dog on the other side which decided to chomp down.
“It was large and didn’t make a sound until it grabbed my finger and started to do a deep growl. I wasn’t sure I was going to get my hand out.”
Speaking to the Argus while waiting at the Royal Gwent Hospital, he said: “It’s quite painful. I’m hoping I won’t be here too long because I want to get back out delivering and campaigning.”
He was bravely back out at a hustings later:
Stephen Tall has been writing for the Times’ Red Box blog. He reckons that it’s been clear all along that the Tories have known perfectly well they won’t get a majority, for two reasons:
The first piece of evidence is the Conservative manifesto itself, an unfunded wish-list which vows to turn the budget deficit into a surplus, while simultaneously promising tax-cuts for everyone, more money for the NHS, freezing rail fares — all to be paid for by unspecified welfare cuts and, fingers crossed, economic growth. How else to explain this unsquareable circle other than as a bartering tactic for future coalition negotiations?
And the endorsement of the Tory press for us? It’s not a coincidence:
The second piece of evidence is the endorsement of the Lib Dems by usually Conservative-leaning newspapers in their traditional “If we had a vote” leader columns. Given the battering meted out to the party by the press these past five years, most of us had written off these write-ups. Instead, The Times, The Sunday Times, the FT, the Economist, and, yes, even The Sun, have all called on their readers to consider voting tactically for the Lib Dems where the party’s fighting Labour.
It’d be naïve to think they’ve been won over by our policy “red lines” or Clegg’s distinctly upbeat campaign – they’re making nice because they think it’s the most likely route to the continuation of some form of Conservative-led government.
Like so many past Liberal Democrat voters, I have found this election campaign frustrating and demoralising. At the last election our party managed to get into a seat of power but didn’t they just throw it all away when they broke their pledge on tuition fees? What is the point in voting if our wishes are cast aside at the first hurdle?
But the right to vote has been hard fought and is a fundamental responsibility for all citizens. I have been seriously contemplating writing ‘none of the above’ on my voting slip. But no, voting is such an important responsibility. A choice needs to be made.
Watching the televised broadcasts and following the campaign on the radio and television has not been helpful. Politics is so muddied with spin. I needed to cut the crap and ditch the spin. We all know how the Liberal Democrats have failed us but I decided to research the Liberal Democrat Manifesto from 2010 to see what they have actually succeeded in achieving…
Increase the income tax threshold to £10,000. This is huge! It is a much better way of boosting the economy and supporting lower income families than having a higher minimum wage or putting up benefits.
If the Liberal Democrats get about half UKIP’s votes (8% against 14%) but about 10 times as many MPs 20 – 30 against 2 – 3), will the Liberal Democrats stand by their principals and demand electoral reform? In particular, will they insist on the Single Transferable Vote (STV), which they have always recognized as the best voting system for voters?
The Liberal Democrats have had five years now to learn the hard way what some of us warned in 2010, based on our observations of continental Europe where coalitions are normal; the senior partner takes the credit for popular decisions and blames the junior partner for unpopular ones.
If the Liberal Democrats had got STV for this election as a condition of entering into coalition in 2010, they could now be looking at winning about 52 seats for about 8% of the vote. Admittedly, UKIP might be expecting about 91 seats but, if that is what voters want, so be it.
The real point of electoral reform is not to benefit this or that party but to benefit the nation and the voters.
With electoral reform for this election, the SNP could expect about half the Scottish seats (30) for about half the Scottish votes instead of all the seats (59) for half the votes and not be in pole position now to hold the UK to ransom. Please see David Green’s excellent exposition on for more on this.
Professor Colin Talbot of Manchester University has written an interesting blog which reinforces many of the points made here by Tony Greaves.
He mentions that much of the talk of “Confidence and supply” deals, Queens Speech votes and second 2015 elections ignores the reality of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011, which is kind to minority governments.
Good news for the Lib Dem’s Layla Moran in Oxford West and Abingdon. The Green candidate from 2010 has endorsed her. The Cherwell has the story.
Chris Goodall, who ran as the Green candidate for the area in the 2010 General Election, has written to residents urging them to vote for Layla Moran of the Liberal Democrats, rather than the Greens’ Larry Sanders.
In the letter, he explained, “If the UK had proportional representation, I’d have no hesitation giving Green candidate Larry Sanders my vote this time. But we don’t.”
He went on to call the seat “ultra-marginal”, saying that no one except that Conservatives and the Lib Dems “stands the remotest chance of winning”.
He continued, “Those of us who want to see a fairer, more tolerant and more equal society have to vote for Layla even if it is against our party loyalties.”
Despite the tactical nature of his endorsement, however, he also had high praise for Moran herself, calling her “a thoughtful and energetic individual”, and opining, “Parliament needs far more people like her with a background in science. And her experience of living in different countries would help reduce the extraordinary insularity we often see in the House of Commons.”
A decision on where Britain’s next runway should be built is expected this summer and, even after years of debate, Gatwick’s expansion plan remains the best and most deliverable solution to the need for extra capacity.
For the first time, Gatwick has been allowed to stake its claim for expansion. Heathrow’s plan would blight the lives of hundreds of thousands of people and reinforce a high-cost monopoly provider at the expense of passengers – but now, finally, there is an alternative.
I found out about this not because it came in in a Google alert but because a family member, who has nothing to do with politics, shared it on Facebook. That family member lives in a key Liberal Democrat seat so I hope he’s going to do the right thing and vote for Danny on Thursday. It’s the only thing to do in Inverness if you really don’t want an SNP MP as I know he doesn’t.
This family member is a really hardcore cyclist. Ten days ago he took part in the Mallorca 312. That’s where people cycle all the way round the island of Mallorca. The first thing they encounter is a flipping great mountain range that goes down almost the entire west coast. He did the whole thing in under 14 hors, too, which was incredible, especially when you think he’s even more middle aged (by 2 months and 13 days) than I am.
Anyway, suffice to say he was impressed with Nick’s plans as revealed in Cycling Weekly and praised by none other than Chris Boardman:
The network asked parties to allocate five per cent of Britain’s transport budget to cycling and set a target for cycling to account for 10 per cent of all trips.
The Liberal Democrats are the only party to nail their colours to the mast and pledge to implement everything the network is asking for,” said Boardman, British Cycling’s policy advisor after Clegg confirmed he is ‘very keen’ to implement the recommendations.
It’s encouraging to hear that Nick Clegg is passionate about Britain becoming a cycling nation to rival our European neighbours.
The difference is that he is actually bold enough to put some numbers and targets against this aim with measures that could have a colossal impact on how people get around.
If the Liberal Democrats form part of a new coalition we will certainly be pressing them to ensure that these ambitions form a central part of the government’s transport strategy.”
This is what popped into my inbox at 13:34 this afternoon:
72 hours? That’s Friday! A bit late for those few Labour voters who remain to get to the polls.
As activists all over the country pull up their hoods to protect them from the torrential rain, Paddy pops up to say thanks, to remind us to keep going till 1o pm on Thursday and reminds us why we are doing it – for stability, decency and unity in our country.
He also reminds us that the Tories know that we are winning where we need to be and points out that at this stage in the last election they said they only had to win 14 seats, this time they are saying it’s 23 but we know it’s more.
I knew there was something weird going on with my Facebook feed. There are plenty Liberal Democrat related items in it all the time, but I’ve noticed adverts for things I’ve been interested in. I’ve also noticed that the UK Liberal Democrat website now seems to tell me lots of things about the very excellent Mike Crockart. I suspected technical wizardry of some description and wondered what was coming next given the way that Austin Rathe and his colleagues seem to be able to get into my head.
The secret is out now. It’s called Operation Manatee. A manatee, as Wikipedia will tell you, is a quite peaceful looking sea cow type thing that, interestingly, has prehensile lips. The left and right sides of the upper lip can move independently of each other. This clearly is not any sort of parallel to the Liberal Democrats. Manatee is based on the Obama campaign’s similarly marine-named 2012 Project Narwhal. This enabled Obama’s campaign to send very specifically targeted emails on controversial subjects to those voters who would be sympathetic.
Manatee works in a similar way, using Facebook and YouTube. This video gives more details.
Over 2 million social media adverts to be placed in the final phase of the campaign, right up till close of poll on Thursday night.
The Tories don’t seem to have got the hang of excluding the opposition from their target mailings. This may be a good thing as we wouldn’t have had the joy of reading our Norman Baker’s fantastic and hilarious response to a missive he received from David Cameron, in whose government he served until last November.
Here’s the Prime Minister’s letter:
And here, in full, is Norman’s pithy response. Enjoy.
When I saw this yesterday, my blood was boiling for a bit. You have to stick with it, because it does actually get better.
There are a couple of things I’d have done differently. There was no need for body parts to come into the conversation at all. We need to think about all sorts of inclusion, here.
Secondly, I’d have liked a recognition that women face particular barriers and Liberal Democrats want to tackle those – but the way to do that is for us all to do that together. Gender discrimination is bad for everybody.
As the speculation continues on the make-up of the next government, I have been thinking a lot about the prospect of another Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition.
We went into coalition in 2010 for three main reasons 1) because the country needed a strong, stable government to sort out the economy which was in crisis 2) to stop the Tories from doing nasty, right-wing things, and 3) to get our own great policies, such as pupil premium implemented.
So where are we in 2015? We do not have the same level of economic difficulty as we did in 2010. The deficit is halved, our GDP growth is the highest amongst developed countries and we have record employment. Whilst it’s true that we cannot take the economic recovery for granted, we are not in crisis.
As to being able to stop the Tories’ right wing agenda in 2015, I doubt that we will be able to do that as effectively. It is likely that any Conservative/Lib Dem/DUP coalition will have the smallest of majorities. This will give those ‘swivel-eyed’ right wing conservatives a lot of power. In this parliament, the Coalition had a decent majority and the more extreme Tories could be safely ignored – that won’t be the case this time. And just to get a flavour of some of the policies on offer in the Tory 2015 manifesto – 500 more free schools, removing JSA for 18-21 year olds, requiring 40% turnout for strike action, ending any subsidy for onshore wind, lowering the benefit cap, capping skilled migration, scrapping the Human Rights Act and introducing the snoopers charter – nice!
The Liberal Democrats have produced a series of 20 videos giving snippets of our manifesto in BSL. We are the first major party to do so. The full list is here.
We’ll also put them up on here in batches over the next wee while. If you want to see all our posts, just click on the bsl tag at the bottom of this post.
In this post, you will find crime, freedom and equality and political reform.
Today’s leader article in the Independent praises Nick Clegg: