Category Archives: Op-eds

Is now the time to really commit to the campaign to Rejoin?

I’ll freely admit that I’ve been a bit sceptical about the campaign to rejoin the European Union. Not because I don’t believe that we should be within the fold rather than outside it but rather, I felt that we needed to be clear as a nation about what we really wanted of the relationship. Also, having put our neighbours through the psychodrama that was Brexit, they needed to be confident that we really meant it before attempting to negotiate a return.

The Party itself has struggled with determining a campaigning stance. Those who joined the Party as a campaigning vehicle to overturn the 2016 referendum have mostly sought an avowedly pro-Rejoin stance, whilst others, more cautious about losing potential voters, have soft-pedalled such a stance whilst indicating their support for an eventual return. The fairly disastrous campaigns of 2017 and 2019 reinforced the sense of caution.

But the news that polling by the European Council for Foreign Relations suggests that British voters are now willing to accept free movement as part of the conditions for rejoining the Single Market, perhaps changes the game.

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Observations of an ex pat: Syrian Butterfly

The Syrian butterfly has flapped its wings and created a political storm throughout the region and well beyond.
Russia has lost a Middle East foothold and global credibility but gained troops for its war in Ukraine. Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” has been reduced to dust. Hezollah has been cut off from its supplier.
All the Arab states will be pleased that the Persians have been humbled but will be worried that they have been backed into the nuclear corner.
China may be casting a covetous eye over the the vacuum left by a weakened Russia in Central Asia, Middle East and the  south Caucasuses. Joe Biden sees an “historic opportunity.” Donald Trump sees an exit.
Israel sees an opportunity to expand its territory and influence, and a chance to remove both Iran and Syria as major foes.
Western intelligence chiefs have expressed concerns about an upsurge of Islamic violence in the West. Those fleeing Hayat Tahrir al- Sham (HTS) may increase the number of refugees heading West. But then the millions in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Europe may more than balance the books by starting a Great Return.
Turkey is  chuffed that the organisation which they sheltered, HTS, in northwest Syria may now rule the rest of the country. This could increase their foothold in 100 square kilometres of Syrian territory and their suppression of Kurdish rebels. The Kurds are worried about the Turks, as are their Israeli and American backers.
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Understanding the Syria conflicts 2

Although they cannot be condoned, public executions of former Syrian secret police in Damascus, Latakia and elsewhere in Syria, following the new HTS-led government, are not exactly unexpected.

When Hafez Assad came to power with the support of the Soviet Union in the 1960s, Moscow helped the new regime set up the brutal, hated Mukhabarat secret police. The Mukhabarat , led mostly by Alawites, were known not only for mass torture and ‘disappearances’ to keep Hafez Assad in power, they also had their tentacles all over the Syrian military and economy, deploying widespread ‘confiscations’. His son Bashar Assad, reportedly considered reigning in the Mukhabarat for economic reasons, but had little chance to succeed. He became dependent on the Mukhabarat to stay in power, who increased their murderous, torturing spree under his rule, and further alienated the population.

Saddam’s equally murderous and hated Mukhabarat in Iraq was also developed with Soviet assistance, as were the internal terror institutions of Algeria, set up under Chairman Boumédiène.

I am intimately acquainted with these three Soviet-initiated security institutions myself, having been arrested and imprisoned pending execution in the Algerian garrison town of Blida at the age of 19, having been dragged from my car and cuffed by the Syrian Mukhabarat on the Jordanian border for no apparent reason in the 1990s, and having shockingly located the hidden Iraqi Mukhabarat torture HQ in Basra, after giving chase with my Close Protection Team, in 2003.

Hatred of the Mukhabarat helped fuel the genuine ‘Arab Spring’ Syrian uprising from 2011, but as with the Tahir Square uprising in Egypt, and revolts in Tunisia and Libya, the young, sometimes EU-facing pro-democracy ‘moderns’ were soon swept away by the more grounded Islamists. In Egypt the Brotherhood were appreciated amongst the poor for their social support.

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Voting rights, residency, citizenship and reciprocity

On 7 June 2015, an EU member state held a referendum on a political change, one that its proponents said would send a message to the world about how enlightened the country was, but its opponents said would erode the country’s national identity. When the result was declared, it was an emphatic ‘no’, with just over 70 per cent voting the proposal down, in an 87 per cent turnout, with those who would have most benefited from the change feeling undervalued or rejected.

No, as you will have gathered, it wasn’t ‘that’ referendum held in June the following year, but the one held in Luxembourg on extending voting rights in national parliamentary elections to foreigners resident in the country. Despite only being intended for those who had a) been resident for at least ten years and b) previously voted in either European or local elections, this went too far for many in a country whose national motto translates as ‘We want to remain what we are’.

Granted it did not have the ramifications that ‘other’ referendum had, but it illustrates, even in the EU, how many still believe that voting rights in national elections should be restricted to citizens of the country concerned. In addition, in countries like Ireland, despite the role of those in the diaspora in supporting the economy through remittances over the decades, there remains opposition, sometimes vehement, to giving them the vote, even from some in the diaspora itself.

On the other hand, eligible Irish citizens registered to vote in constituencies in Northern Ireland can enrol as overseas electors, but not ones in Great Britain, and even then, they need to prove they have been born in Northern Ireland, not just anywhere on the island, and eligible for British citizenship, even if they have no intention of ever holding a British passport.

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In praise of U3A

I wouldn’t blame you if you haven’t heard of U3A, especially if you are under 50, even though it has 400,000 members across the UK. It is one of those organisations that is publicised through word of mouth, and in this case only to retired people. But it is a shining example of the type of community led collective activity that as Liberal Democrats we greatly cherish.

U3A stands for the University of the Third Age. I admit that “University” is stretching it a bit, as it doesn’t actually offer any degrees or other qualifications, which I imagine is why it tends to be known by the shortened form these days. What it does offer is learning opportunities, cultural activities and social events, all run by members with the relevant expertise.

The basic premise is that retired people have a wealth of knowledge and skills that they can share. Any member can set up a group, most of which meet in members’ homes.

My local U3A (which covers my London borough) offers an astonishing 71 different groups; study areas include art, cooking, bridge, wine tasting, history, languages, literature, music and many more. Some groups are structured around trips to concerts or theatre and others enjoy outings for cycling or walking. Monthly lectures on a variety of subjects are well attended. Two years ago I very tentatively turned up at an art group having abandoned art at the age of 14 – I was welcomed and encouraged by an experienced teacher and have really grown in confidence. I also enjoy meeting with a poetry reading group.

Members can also attend online regional and national talks, attend study days and visit other branches.

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Understanding the Syria conflicts

As in many parts of the world, history is very much a political weapon in the Eastern Mediterranean. It is difficult to assess conflicts in Syria (and the British/Western interest) for this reason, especially for politicians unversed in the labyrinthine machinations of post-Sykes-Picot Syria and the Levant. Every phrase uttered is ‘controversial’.

There is much to be understood about the ancient past of the area, especially in relation to territorial claims and counter-claims made by different ethnic and religious factions today (..of widely-varying historical or archaeological solidity). These claims fog up the search for ‘academic’ historical understanding. The Eastern Med is identity politics on steroids.

However, relevant modern Syrian history begins not so much with the much-touted 1916 Sykes Picot agreement per se,  but with a series of related international agreements established between 1915 and 1923, initiated primarily after the start of WW1 due to the anticipated fall of the Ottoman Empire. These involved the UK, France, Russia, Turkiye, Armenia … and Arab & Kurdish groups who had opposed the ruling Ottoman Empire.

Syria’s borders today do reflect these international negotiations. Local ethnically Arab, Kurd and other populations had limited influence. There was a reluctance in the major-power negotiations to establish  countries or administrative regions based on ethnicity or religion, and a key result of that was the absence of a ‘Kurdish’ state, and the consolidation of several Arab states of mixed ethnic make up, and of varying denominations of the mostly Abrahamic religions.

These divisions were utilised after WW2 by the Soviets, with their anti-colonial narratives in the Cold War period. Recognising the history, they sought a ‘strong leader’ (in the colonial tradition) to hold all the Syrian groups together, by force or otherwise, who was not a member of one of the major dominant groups. In the early 1960s they cultivated a notable Alawite family, conveniently based in a Northern coastal area. By 1963 the brutal Ba’athist Hafez al-Assad, the future president, was already the primary power behind the scenes. He had received pilot training in the Soviet Union in the 1950s.

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Beware asking ‘What next for Syria?’

Trigger warning – this post contains some distressing details about torture.

Wherever events in Syria are being discussed by western media and politicians, one question is asked over and over again: ‘What will happen next?’ A number of commenters on my previous article asked it, I’ve received it from friends and family and I see it all over social media.

But this isn’t a neutral question, whatever the intent of the person asking it. The inference is that ‘we’ve been here before, and look what happened’. Often it’s accompanied by the explicit ‘Syria might end up like Libya’…

I do understand why this sentiment is so common. The Arab Spring of 2011 raised hopes that were largely dashed. We’ve seen corrupt, brutal dictators replaced by elected leaders who then were replaced by new brutal dictators. The UK and our allies bear a heavy degree of responsibility for some disastrous interventions in the Middle East, not least the illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.

But please… Before asking this question, please stop and think. Imagine this was 1945. Imagine you are seeing the liberation of the Nazi concentration camps in central Europe. Imagine you are seeing for the first time the piles of corpses and the machinery of death and destruction. Imagine the tens of thousands of emaciated, brutalised survivors of those camps stumbling free.

Would you, even knowing what we know now about the brutality and corruption of Soviet rule, say to these people “ah, but what will come next?” Would it occur to you to say to the families of the survivors “what comes next may be worse?”

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Shadows over Damascus: The unravelling of a regime

Bashar al-Assad has fled, and HTS fighters, backed by Turkey, have taken control of Damascus. It immediately brought to mind the fall of Kabul to the Taliban only a few years ago—how quickly power shifted with little resistance. Afghanistan fell to the Taliban then, and now it seems Damascus may fall to HTS. Yet, this isn’t just a repeat of history; it’s a far more complex situation.

Let me be clear: Bashar al-Assad was no saint. He was a dreadful leader, willing to commit unspeakable atrocities to cling to power. Yet, I genuinely expected him to fight harder to retain his grip. It’s worth noting that Assad wasn’t originally meant to rule; that role was intended for his brother, who tragically died in a car crash. Bashar was thrust into power by circumstance, and his leadership style has always reflected that—a man eager to please but lacking the foresight for the long game.

The timing of this shift couldn’t be worse for Assad’s allies. Iran, preoccupied with Israel and Lebanon, and Russia, entrenched in Ukraine, are in no position to prop him up. In this vacuum, Turkey has made a bold move. I see this as Erdoğan’s masterstroke—a calculated “Ottoman slap,” so to speak. Make no mistake, this wasn’t an HTS-led victory in isolation. This was orchestrated in Ankara, backed by Istanbul, and serves as a clear message to the Middle East: there’s a new sheriff in town.

However, the fall of Assad comes with significant risks. History shows us what happens when iron-fisted regimes collapse without a clear successor. Iraq post-Saddam and Libya after Gaddafi offer grim lessons. Power vacuums invite chaos, and Syria could easily become a breeding ground for ISIS-like groups to reemerge. HTS doesn’t have the monopoly on violence needed to stabilize the region, leaving Syria vulnerable to prolonged instability. I wouldn’t be surprised if Turkey takes further action, possibly carving out a buffer zone to guard against Kurdish aspirations for autonomy.

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Syrians are free at last

Syria is free. Despite the odds, despite the indifference, despite the efforts of the ‘Global community’ to ‘freeze the conflict’ and bring ‘stability’ to a problem they wished would go away… Syrians have freed themselves. The Assad regime, rotten to the core, competent solely at oppressing Syrians, is finished. 

Across the country, Syrians from all religions, sects and ethnicities have been pulling down statues of their oppressor, but the images that probably matter most are those of people walking or being carried free from the regime’s prison network. Families being reunited with relatives they’d been told had died in captivity years ago. Children born to mothers in prison. An air force pilot imprisoned for refusing to carry out the order to bomb civilians in Hama – in 1982. Prisoners so abused that they cannot remember their own names.

Syrians are already beginning to return to their homes. From refugee camps within Syria and from surrounding countries. This is a time for optimism.

The revolution in Syria – and we can unambiguously call it that now, rather than a ‘conflict’ – has been poorly covered in the international media, with some honourable exceptions. In part I think this is down to how complex Syrian society is, in part due to how quickly and how often things changed in the country and in part because many in the media and politics fell (or worse, jumped knowingly) into the trap of seeing events in Syria as part of a ‘great game’, rather than seeing Syrians as a people with their own agency.

Over the years I’ve written a number of articles for Lib Dem Voice on Syria, in which I tried to do my part, to explain to party members what was happening, what our choices were as a country as to how we should respond. The Lib Dems for Free Syria organised briefings for parliamentarians and tried to feed into our party’s policy-making process. The most important thing we tried to do was to platform Syrians.

It’s with that in mind that I’m writing this today. Firstly, infinite congratulations to Syrians for overthrowing one of the worst monsters the world has seen. Secondly, to ask Liberal Democrats, whatever their concerns about what might come next for Syria, to please use this time to be happy for Syrians. The future is uncertain, but it is now for Syrians to determine.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

France and Germany

Europe is in political turmoil. The governments of the EU’s ideological and economic engines – France and Germany respectively – have collapsed.

Meanwhile Russia is advancing in the East and in the West Trump is retreating with a tariff-infested isolationist America First policy. To complicate matters further, Trump himself is unlikely to keep quiet when he visits France this weekend for the all-star reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.

At the heart of France’s problem is a three-way polarisation of French politics and a long-standing government tendency to pay more than it has. The centre-right guru of compromise, Michel Barnier was appointed Prime Minister, after parliamentary elections in the summer.

He failed to resolve either problem and a vote of no confidence brought about the collapse of his government on Wednesday. New parliamentary elections are the obvious answer. The problem is that under the constitution of the Fifth Republic there must be a gap of 12 months between National Assembly elections.

Which opens the question of whether President Emmanuel Macron himself should resign. So far, he has refused to consider it.

In the background is the fate of far-right National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen who is facing a five-year ban from politics for mis-use of EU funds. This would bar her from running for the presidency unless … Macron resigns. If he does presidential elections must be held within 30 days and Le Pen is rescued from the political wilderness.

Meanwhile, in Germany, Olof Scholz has failed to hold together his traffic-light coalition and called elections for February next year. The projected winners are this stage are the CDU/CSU coalition led by 69-year-old Friedrich Merz. Merz is pretty standard far-right. He is pro-EU, anti-Russian and pro-Ukraine.

The fly in the German electoral ointment is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) which is pro-Russian, anti-EU anti-Ukraine and vehemently anti-immigration. The AfD has been rising rapidly in the political stakes. It is based mainly in the former German Democratic Republic and is unlikely to win a majority, but it could end up the second biggest party in the Bundestag.

The problem is that the AfD is toxic. None of the established parties will form a coalition with it. Which means that the outcome is likely to be another shaky coalition just when Germany needs strong government. Not only is their threat of Russia, but the economy is in the doldrums as a result of its inability to compete with Chinese and American electric vehicles.

Its export problems are soon to be worsened by Trump’s tariffs. This in turn could drag East European economies from relative growth into recession. This in turn could increase its Euro-sceptic, pro-Russian leaders to turn away from the democratic institutions of the EU towards the more autocratic Russians and Chinese.

United States

It’s official – American’s legal system has been politicised and weaponised. Joe Biden’s decision to pardon his son Hunter was the final piece in this unfortunate jigsaw puzzle.

Some claim that America’s rule of law has already been hopelessly compromised. Either by years of corruption, questionable litiginous claims, a bloated legal profession, Donald Trump’s contempt for the law and Democrats’ use of the law to attack Trump.

It is true that New York’s conviction of Trump on business-related felony charges was questionable. Yes, he was guilty. But would he have been charged if he had not been Trump?

The Georgia state prosecution, and the two federal prosecutions – one of disappearing documents and the other for alleged insurrection – are of a much more serious nature. They involve nothing less than treason. With Trump’s election they will simply… disappear.

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A longer read: Lib Dem MPs are right about “Tractor Tax”

 Meet Llewellyn (not his real name). Llewellyn was a farmer I met in my old job and the National Farm Research Unit. The job I used to pay bills when I was representing Woodbridge as an (unpaid) town councillor. I called farmers with surveys and hoped that they would be nice to me (sometimes they were…).  

Llewellyn’s wife picked up. She, like him, was in her 80s, though she could barely speak a word of English. See the people in rural Gwynedd have performed the same job as their ancestors have in the same place since the late stone age. In fact, the farmers of Gwynedd are the people closest related to those that built stone henge – a fact proven by genetic analysis of skeletons. Not sharing my Anglo-Saxon heritage, Llewellyn’s wife was Welsh monolingual. 

Thankfully for my job, Llewellyn was not.  

He told me that he hadn’t been on a holiday for 25 years. The reason being was that Llewellyn annual income was £13,000 a year. Llewellyn’s land (the mountain the other side of Snowdon) was very expensive. Apparently, it could be sold for holiday homes for an enormous profit. The NFU has said that this makes 80-something Lewellyn fair game for Labour’s changes to inheritance tax.  The government disputes this suggestion. Insisting that their own research was in all ways superior to the professionals and peer-reviewed organisations that state the contrary.  

The situation is muddied by the Institute for Fiscal studies admitting two factors which spells potential doom for our agri-sector: 

  1. ‘Nevertheless, in some cases will simply yield too little income (and the inheritor will have too few other resources) to pay the tax. The owners might choose, or be forced, to sell part or all of the farm.’ 
  1. ‘The exact number that will be affected is uncertain but government figures imply it will be significantly less than 500 estates per year…’ 

Labour insists that marking their own homework is a worth-while enterprise. I (and most farmers) disagree.  

In a post-Brexit, post-truth world it is clear that facts and expert opinion no longer carry the weight in public discourse that they once did. In much the same way that the last government crusaded against doctors and health-care workers, this government has chosen farmers.

No less defensible (and arguably crueller) the “Bus Tax”  will remove mobility and agency for thousands of rural working people.  

It seems that many commenters on social media were to be believed believe that farming is enormously profitable. Most farmers hold a title, a castle and probably a butler. We’re all multi-millionaires, don’t you know? 

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Observations of an Expat: Middle East Whack-a-Mole

The Middle East is very much like the fairground game whack-a-mole. You think you have solved your problems by knocking a mole on the head and another one of the pesky beasts pops up on the other side of the board.

Just as Israel and Washington thought they had Hezbollah and Iran on the back foot, an Islamic fundamentalist group has popped up to threaten Syria’s Assad regime.  And, of course, the Gazan mole still has its head above the parapets – just.

The temptation is to raise a cheer for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Abu Muhammad Al-Jolani. They are, after all, now the main threat to the regime of Basahar-al Assad, one of the regime’s most brutal anti-Western dictators. They also pose the biggest danger to Russian and Iranian influence in the region.

But HTS are an internationally proscribed terrorist organisation with a reputation for brutal repression. They also want to create an Islamic state within Syria. The last thing the Middle East needs is another religiously-based government which derives its legitimacy from its relationship with an infallible Higher Being.

So, who is HTS and its leader? Why have they suddenly leapt into the world’s headlines? And, finally, what are their chances of toppling the Assad regime?

Al-Jolani himself is a shadowy figure. Even his birth date is unknown, although he is believed to be in his mid-forties and hails from Damascus where his parents still live. When the Syrian Civil War started with the 2011 Arab Spring, Al Jolani was associated with the Jihadist group Al Nusra which was the main Islamic opposition group opposing Assad in Aleppo and Syria’s northern Idlib region.

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Amnesty International’s report on Israel genocide

Amnesty International’s 293 page report, ‘You feel like you are subhuman’ (5 December) stands as the first devastating indictment of Israel’s genocide of the people of Gaza since last January, when the International Court of Justice deemed genocide ‘plausible’ and applied legally binding orders concerning Israel’s conduct (which were ignored). Page by agonising page, Amnesty chronicles the disproportionate actions and language of Israeli leaders, soldiers and others that, in its view, clearly demonstrate intent to destroy Gaza and its people.

Two years ago, Amnesty published its report, ‘Israel’s Apartheid Against Palestinians’, another forensically detailed analysis of Israel as occupying power. Between the two reports stand first, the ICJ’s preliminary hearing of South Africa’s charge of genocide against Israel (referred to above), and secondly, its Advisory Opinion on ‘The Legal Consequences arising from the Policies and Practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem’, of 19 July 2024.

It is in the light of Amnesty’s report that the words parroted by senior politicians of the three principal political parties that ‘Israel has a right to defend itself’ sound so hollow, particularly since it is difficult to think of a single occasion when any senior British politician (pace Corbyn) over the past 57 years of illegal and repressive occupation, has stated that the Palestinians have a right to defend themselves. We should admit our shame and that our conceit that ‘Brits love the underdog’ is a sham. For 57 years the UK (like almost everyone else) has ducked its legal obligation under Common Article 1 of the 1949 Geneva Conventions ‘to respect and ensure respect for the present Convention in all circumstances’, meaning when you see another Party to the Convention violating it, you have a clear obligation to do what you can to bring it back into compliance.

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Local Democracy, or Devolved Administration?

Within the next few weeks the Labour government will publish its promised white paper on Devolution.  Reports so far suggest it will extend combined authorities with directly-elected mayors across the rest of England, abolish the remaining district councils and move to unitary councils covering parts of combined authorities – in practice a new two-tier system in which the relationship between combined-authority mayors and unitary councils will remain to be settled.  There’s unlikely to be any significant change in financial control from the centre or tax reform.  A move towards three-year settlements for central funding of local and combined authorities is more likely.

I’m not an expert on local government; nor do I know whether our party yet has an agreed position on how to respond.  I accept that the mayoral model in London works well – with a London Assembly to hold the mayor to account, and London borough councils to provide local services and representation.   The mayoral model is suitable for conurbations – though it needs (as in London) to be balanced by a representative assembly, with multiple local councils constituting it.  But I’m doubtful whether a similar model suits the rest of England.

In Yorkshire the consensus among MPs and council leaders was strongly for a regional body and local councils, if necessary also with elected mayors for the conurbations of West and South Yorkshire.  Instead the last government imposed upon us combined authorities both in North and East Yorkshire, with only two elected councils in each.  The imposition of a unitary authority across North Yorkshire has replaced district councils that covered distinct communities – Harrogate, Craven, Scarborough and Whitby, Richmondshire, and Selby – with a geographically vast area with a much smaller number of councillors.  York, however, was left outside, so an elected mayor and combined authority has therefore been imposed on two very different local authorities.  The combined authority and mayor for East Yorkshire will similarly sit over only two existing local authorities.

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A longer read: Green policies under fire

The politics of climate change has got a whole lot uglier.  ‘Saving the planet’ may make for good speeches to the party faithful but the political costs are now becoming more apparent.

The planned job losses in the car industry, including the closure of the Vauxhall (Stellantis) plant at Luton, have made the vision of ‘green jobs’ more difficult to sell. The industrial strategy I oversaw in the Coalition involved expansion of the car industry and a highlight was going to the USA to head off closures of Vauxhall’s plants and get a commitment to UK expansion. Now the industry has concluded that the mandatory target for sales of EVs (22% this year rising to 100% by 2030) is just too difficult. My successor as Business Secretary is having to revisit the policy.

Public warnings by experts of a short-term increase energy prices as we transition to renewable power has also sent nervous tremors through government ministers. Reform UK has smelt blood and sees political prey in the form of ‘net zero’. The Tories are keeping step with their rivals on the populist right. Long gone are the days when Margaret Thatcher led international opinion on the need to tackle climate change and her successors (up to and including Boris Johnson) could be relied upon to support a political consensus including mandating ‘net zero’ targets by legislation. Opposition politicians have sensed that the British public enthusiastically supports the fight against climate change but only if it doesn’t have to pay.

The budget was another warning sign of political nervousness. An obvious revenue raiser, and ‘green’ policy, was to raise petrol and diesel duties which have been frozen for over a decade by governments reluctant to upset motorists and lorry drivers. Nothing happened. With bus subsidies cut, and rail fares set to rise, there is yet another incentive to resist environmentally friendly change in transport.

A much bigger and more painful decision looms. Britain has an opportunity to make EV motoring much more accessible by importing large numbers of low-cost Chinese cars. China has, quite suddenly, become the world’s leading nation for car production and is poised to flood world markets with relatively cheap but high quality EVs. The EU has panicked over the threat to European producers and has thrown up tariff barriers. The USA already blocks Chinese imports. But Britain has an open market. Car industry jobs versus the greening of transport is precisely the kind of dilemma that politicians hate but will soon face.

In practice, the trade-offs can be made less painful by persuading the Chinese car companies like BYD to set up shop in the UK and produce locally. This was the strategy employed four decades ago with the Japanese companies which were then coming to dominate the industry: hence Nissan in Sunderland.

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Pippa Heylings MP writes… We can, and we will, make Roz Savage’s Climate and Nature Bill a reality

Last month, I had the privilege of attending COP29 in Baku and COP16 in Cali, where I took part in global negotiations on climate and nature. It’s clear to see that the global response to climate change is, at best, underwhelming. Climate change is the greatest threat we face—not only to world economies—but also to nature, which is our greatest ally in limiting its impact. And yet, we are still not acting swiftly enough to reduce carbon emissions.

For many, especially younger people, the process of COPs and their lack of concrete action gives a sense of anxiety. As it’s their futures that face the greatest risk, it’s more than understandable. Yet, I am, and continue to be, filled with hope. 

When I look back to when the UK passed the monumental Climate Change Act in 2008, I feel proud of the example it set all around the world. A lot has changed since 2008, and the impacts of our changing climate are no longer a distant story that we see on the news. They’re at home, in the UK, and are already having devastating impacts on our livelihoods—from more frequent and intense heat waves, storms, floods, droughts, coastal erosion, food supply disruption and expensive energy bills.

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Remembering Robert Woodthorpe-Browne MBE – notes from Liberal International Congress

Anyone who has been active within the liberal family in the UK, Europe or internationally would know of and remember Robert Woodthorpe-Browne MBE

As I write this blog from the 64th Congress of Liberal International in Santiago, Chile, I cannot help but think of him.  Were he still with us today, he would most certainly be at Congress, networking in Spanish like a local (just as he was as fluent in French and German), knowledgeable, affable and quintessentially internationalist.

The theme of this Congress was the Future of Freedom, apposite for this time in history, as we encounter the rise of populism in Europe and America, and escalating conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.  Indeed, this theme was explored in a round table discussion expertly led by Lord John Alderdice, on the Future of Liberalism.  I would like to share a few nuggets that I took away from the discussions.

Informed by history and philosophical thinkers such as Isaiah Berlin, John called on Liberals to seek a more thoughtful way forward.  What do we mean by freedom and liberty, he asked?  It could be negatively defined as freedom from oppression, or positively, as the freedom of choice, the ability to do what one chooses without fear or retribution.

John mentioned 3 important points:
1. We may be individuals, but we also exist through relationships, and we must consider the individual’s place in their community.
2. We assume that people have rational cognitive faculties, but we are also emotional beings who more often think emotionally.
3. Science itself is developing, complex systems engage with each other, opening up new possibilities.

Following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, there was an initial euphoria that liberal democracy had prevailed.   We have however since realised that that was not to be.  Instead, we have found ourselves in a world that is far more complex.  There was a need to recognize “plurality of values” and liberalism has to be relevant to the lives of ordinary people. 

As liberals our responsibility is to stay true to our roots, whilst at the same time, to be open to new ideas and tolerant of those with views which are different from ours.  John made reference to Ed Shapiro’s book “Finding a Place to Stand” (2020), encouraging self-reflection and asking the question even of those whom we disagree with (e.g. Trump): “What are they right about?”

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Manuela Perteghella MP writes: Cody’s Law – protecting young lives

As I stood up in Parliament to ask my first-ever question at Prime Minister’s Questions, I couldn’t stop thinking about Cody Fisher and his family. Cody was just 23 years old when he was stabbed to death on the dance floor of The Crane nightclub in Birmingham on Boxing Day 2022. What should have been a fun night out with friends ended in tragedy because of failings that could—and should—have been avoided.

Cody’s death has left an unimaginable hole in the lives of those who loved him. A talented young footballer, he had his whole future ahead of him. But a deadly weapon—a zombie knife—was smuggled into the venue, bypassing what the court later described as “cursory” security checks, despite over 2,000 people being there that night. It’s hard to comprehend how such a basic safety measure was overlooked, and it’s even harder to accept that no action has yet been taken to prevent something like this from happening again.

Since Cody’s murder, his family, and in particular his mum, Tracey Fisher, has been incredibly brave in her fight to make sure no other family goes through what hers has endured. Tracey is calling for “Cody’s Law,” which would make it mandatory for nightclubs and similar venues to install metal detectors and have bleed kits on site. These are simple, common-sense measures that could save lives.

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Opportunism is addictive for political parties. Liberals must resist

Since our stunning victories back in July, something has been gnawing away at me: Who are we in the LibDems for? Talk to any LibDem activist and you will likely hear the following:  Liberalism is about the ordinary citizen against concentrations of power, stultifying social conformity and unjustified privilege. The same activists will often say that Liberalism champions equality of opportunity, human diversity, material justice and civil participation. But throughout 2024, the messaging around Liberal Democrat identity has been troublingly murky. Back in the summer, Ed Davey gave voice to a vision of centre-left liberalism in his New Statesman

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Welcome to my day: 2 December 2024 – is Elon Musk coming for us all?

If, like me, you’ve been an observer of American politics over the decades, one thing that is glaringly obvious is the amount of money that washes through the system, paying for advertising, cadres of professional staff and all of the paraphernalia that make electoral politics increasingly a game for the wealthy or those with access to the wealthy. One candidate in a Senate or Gubernatorial race can, if they’re unlucky, spend as much as the British political parties combined in a General Election campaign.

We already have cause for concern over the influence of a small number of multi-millionaires on our politics. The Conservative Party has become increasingly dependent on a small number of people to finance its campaigns, leading to suggestions of Russian influence and interference. And, of course, there have been plenty of accusations made regarding Nigel Farage’s links with senior Russian officials. But the cost of campaigns has increased, and with party memberships in historic decline, relying on membership fees is a one way journey to financial, and thus political, oblivion.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Israel

Israel has won the war with Hezbollah. That is if the ceasefire recently announced takes effect as planned.

If Hezbollah has lost then so have backers Iran and the Palestinians in Gaza and on the West Bank. Hezbollah was the keystone in Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” It effectively turned Lebanon into a buffer state between Israel and Iran.

As for the Palestinians, the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah ordered the rocket attacks on northern Israel with the promise that they would continue until there was a ceasefire in Gaza.

The ceasefire agreement makes no mention of Gaza. Israeli forces continue to fight there. Benjamin Netanyahu has severed the link between Hezbollah and Gaza and between Iran and Gaza. This has in turn given him a free hand in dealing with the Palestinians both in Gaza and the West Bank.

He is further aided by the re-election of Donald Trump. The president-elect has been vague about his Middle East policy. He is known for his unpredictability. But the appointment of Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel provides some hints. Huckabee is opposed to the two-state solution and has hinted that he supports Israeli annexation of the West Bank and northern Gaza.

Surprisingly, opinion polls indicate that only about half of the Israeli population support the ceasefire agreement. Why is unclear.

The agreement says that Israeli and Hezbollah forces must withdraw from territory between the Israeli-Lebanese border and the Litani River which is roughly 30 miles north of Israel. Hezbollah would completely disarm. The buffer zone would be occupied by 10,000 UN troops and 10,000 troops from the official Lebanese army with financial backing from the US and France.

Israel cannot launch offensive operations against Lebanon, but it has the full backing of the US to launch “defensive” operations. “If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself,” said Netanyahu, “we will attack. If it tries to rebuild the terrorist infrastructure near the border we will attack. If it tries to launch a rocket. If it digs a tunnel. If it brings in a truck carrying a rocket, we will attack.”

Israel has clearly abandoned the search for a political resolution and put all of its hopes and dreams into the military option.

United States

The threatened 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada will hit them hard. Eighty percent of Canada’s exports are to the US. The same figure applies to Mexico.

But they will also damage the American economy. America needs Mexico’s $19 billion of machinery, electrical equipment and fruit and vegetables. About half of US fruit imports come from Mexico. And if you fancy avocados, 90 percent of America’s avocados are grown in Mexico.

Transferring that production to the U.S. would be difficult, especially since about half of the 2 million agricultural workers in the U.S. are undocumented Mexicans. At the moment they are protected by a visa system that gives legal status to agricultural workers. But Trump has vowed to end that which would seriously impact the $1.5 trillion American fruit and vegetable industry.

Undocumented workers also make up 60 percent of the work force of the construction companies in the southwest. One construction official complained that deporting them “would devastate our industry, we wouldn’t finish our highways, we wouldn’t finish our schools. New housing would simply disappear.”

Canada exports a wide range of products to the U.S., including up to 30 percent of the oil consumed by America. Refineries in the mid-west and Pacific Northwest are especially reliant on oil pipelines from Canada. GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, reckons that a 25% tax on Canadian crude oil would increase gas prices in the Midwest and the Rockies by 25 cents to 75 cents a gallon,

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Observations of an Expat: Fentanyl

Fentanyl is a nasty synthetic opioid. It is 100 times more potent than heroin and 50 times more potent than morphine. It is, not surprisingly, also many times more addictive.

In 2023 an estimated 75,000 Americans died of fentanyl overdoses. As little as two milligrams of fentanyl—roughly equivalent to a few grains of salt—can kill you. A large number of the 2.5 million US opioid addicts are fentanyl users.

Because it is highly addictive, Fentanyl is replacing—some say has replaced—cocaine and heroin as the product of choice of the drug cartels. Heroin exports are also being laced with a grain or two of fentanyl to increase the user’s dependence on the drugs.

All of the above goes some of the way to explaining why President-elect Donald Trump has linked the totally separate issues of immigration and fentanyl exports and threatened to slap a 25 percent tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada and a 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports unless they close down the fentanyl-producing laboratories and the smuggling operations. Of course, life is never that simple.

Let’s start with Mexico. The Mexican drug cartels are the major culprits. In the first nine months of this year, US Customs seized 16,000 pounds of fentanyl at America’s southern border. That is 7.24 billion lethal doses.

The illicit trade is dominated by the Sinalo and Jalisco New Generation cartels. They have taken the billions they have earned from drugs to invest in mining, agriculture and, of course, political respectability. They have become an integral part of the Mexican business and political establishment with legal and illegal operations in 40 countries. They will be difficult to root out. To complicate matters they operate a franchise system so that each production and smuggling operation functions separately from the centre.

The Chinese were targeted by the Biden Administration, and since 2019 illegal exports of fentanyl to the US and to Mexico for transhipment to the US have dropped dramatically. But the chemical components that comprise the synthetic drug are still being shipped to Mexican Laboratories for assembly. As each of the components is completely legal it is difficult to prevent their production and export.

It is a bit of a mystery as to why Trump has included Canada on his list. In the first nine months of 2024 US Customs sized just 40 pounds of fentanyl heading south from America’s northern neighbour. It is also an enigma as to why Trump included Canada in his target list for illegal aliens. In 2023, US border control stopped 12,200 illegal aliens from crossing the US-Canada border. This compares to 2.48 million from Mexico. It is more likely that Trump is trying to undermine liberal icon Justin Trudeau before next year’s federal elections.

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ALDC’s by-election report – 28 November 2024

It was a long list of holds for this week’s by-elections as only 1 out of 10 seats switched hands, where Lib Dems snatched a seat out of Labour in Sheffield City Council. Labour defended their other 7 seats, albeit losing a hefty amount of votes in almost all seats; the Lib Dems also defended the 2 remaining seats.

For the only gain this week, the young Cllr Willis Marshall brought the Lib Dems from fourth place to first in the Woodhouse ward in Sheffield City Council. Coming from the single digits, Willis and the Sheffield team more than quadrupled the Lib Dem vote share to 33% this time around and won the seat! Congratulations to the Willis and the team for the hard work put in to achieve this momentous result.

Sheffield City Council, Woodhouse
Liberal Democrat (Willis Marshall): 1018 (33.0%, +26.8%)
Reform: 1008 (32.7%, new)
Labour: 650 (21.1%, -36.8%)
Conservative: 168 (5.0%, -9.5%)
Green Party: 153 (5.4%, -4.5%)
TUSC: 56 (1.8%, -1.0%)
The Social Democratic Party: 33 (1.1% , new)

In the nearby City of York Council, the Lib Dems comfortably defended its seat with 64% of the vote, towering the second place Conservatives. In the Haxby & Wigginton ward, Cllr Richard Watson and the team grew the vote from just over one-half to almost two thirds of the voting base. Congrats and thank you to Richard and the local team for the tremendous win!

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Lee Dillon MP’s explanation to constituents about the assisted dying vote

Newbury’s MP, Lee Dillon, has written constituents an open letter about his position on the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill, which receives its second reading vote in the House of Commons tomorrow (Friday).

The Bill, which proposes allowing terminally ill adults to choose to end their life under strict safeguards, has generated significant public debate. Lee Dillon has expressed his gratitude to the many constituents who have shared their views, noting the thoughtful and respectful nature of the discussions.

In his open letter, Mr Dillon explains his decision to vote in favour of the Bill’s second reading, highlighting both the importance of individual choice and the need for rigorous protections for vulnerable individuals. He also discusses the next stages of the Bill and the opportunities for further scrutiny and amendments.

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Assisted Dying is emotive – remember the key liberal principle of choice

Ultimately liberalism is about the individual and helping the individual empower themselves. To deny someone that empowerment strikes me as fundamentally wrong.

When it comes to formulating our own views on the thorny issue of assisted dying, all of us will have stories we can share of those who suffered, and each story will come with a distinct and unique perspective that the person writing or speaking about, knows on an all too personal level.

Equally, as human beings many of us will look at the same set of facts, apply our own moral codes and come to different conclusions. Assisted dying is an issue where your personal experiences will inform your view more than most issues and rightly, it is being treated as a free vote.

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Time to talk about social housing

There are around 3.8million homes available for social rent in  England – around 60% are owned by Housing Associations and the rest by Local Authorities.

There is plenty of talk among Lib Dems about the need for more social housing – access to safe, warm and affordable homes is a key part of happy and healthy lives but the reality for many social housing tenants is very far from those ideals. Damp, mould, huge bills to heat draughty homes and bodged repairs are frequent complaints.  Our Councillors and MPs often receive large numbers of complaints from social housing tenants and while it would be nice to think that local authorities gave a more responsive service than Housing Associations, that is very much not the case. The London Borough of Southwark, London’s largest social landlord, has an appalling record of leaving tenants in shocking conditions with the third highest number of Housing Ombudsman complaints in the UK.

Given how many people live in social housing, it is surprising how little attention is paid to them. It’s striking for example that in Parliament, despite MPs’ inboxes being full of emails about problems with social housing, there are All Party Parliamentary Groups (APPG)  for MPs and Peers interested in everything from AI to Autism and Fisheries to Fusion Energy but those dedicated to social housing appear defunct.

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16 days of activism against gender based violence begins

Today is the UN’s International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women and Girls which kicks of the annual 16 days of activism against gender based violence which goes through until International Human Rights Day on 10th December.

The theme this year is #noexcuse. Because there is no justification, ever.

One of the good things about this Labour Government is that Jess Phillips, who has been fighting against violence against women and girls for her entire life, is now a minister and there has been a definite positive change in the tone of communications from the government and its view of the importance of these issues than we have seen in the past five years. To give Theresa May her due, she was key to getting the Domestic Abuse Bill through when she was Prime Minister.

In the Commons today, two Liberal Democrat MPs questioned Jess Phillips. Monica Harding asked about coercive control:

The text is below:

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Thinking of Charles Kennedy on what would have been his 65th birthday

The last week in November is, for me at least, packed with signifiant anniversaries and birthdays. Doctor Who and occasional Lib Dem Voice contributor Stephen Harte (come to think of it has anyone actually seen them in the same room together?) on 23rd, Christine Jardine on 24th and, on 25th our much missed Charles Kennedy.

Today would have been Charles’ 65th birthday. So many of us will have memories of him that are special to us. He was someone who the people of this country respected and listened to. He was one of the few calming voices during the torrid Scottish Independence Referendum a decade ago and it’s so sad that he wasn’t around to influence the Brexit vote.

He had the political courage to stand firm against the Blair Government’s actions in Iraq.  And all the while he still remained firm friends with Blair’s right hand man Alastair Campbell.

A few weeks ago, I chanced upon his voice, sampled on Liberate, a Valtos and Project Smok production inspired by him. His words sum him up: “Ive always believed you have to put the people first”  “the independence of spirit which has to be highland tradition:”.

Valtos, a duo who fuse electronic and celtic music, come from Skye, which Charles represented for most of his years in Parliament, was formed in 2021. They released Liberate last year, as Radio Skye announced at the time:

Scottish electro duo Valtos, comprising Skye natives Martyn MacDonald and Daniel Docherty, have teamed up acclaimed neo-trad trio Project Smok for the new single ‘Liberate’ which will be released on Friday 3rd February.

The upbeat record celebrates the independent spirit of Highlanders, using vocal samples from the late Charles Kennedy to drive home the poignant message.

Mr Kennedy who died in June 2015, served as member for Ross, Skye, and Lochaber for 32 years and was much loved by his constituents.

In the single the Highlander can be heard passionately speaking about championing Scottish tradition and putting the people first.

This is fused with the unmistakably skilled and infectious whistle-playing of Project Smok’s Ali Levack and driving guitar rhythm and a banging electronic beat on the track, which brings a late-night club sound to music rooted in place and traditional.

I’ve had this on repeat a lot recently. It makes me smile. Enjoy.

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Should we be planning for a General Election this early?

On the UK Parliament e-petitions webpage, a petition has been created calling for an early general election to be called, with its creator stating that:

I believe the current Labour Government have gone back on the promises they laid out in the lead up to the last election.

At time of writing, it has garnered more than five times as many signatures than the 100,000 required for a parliamentary debate to be held on the subject, with the UK Government not yet issuing a response.

Following the repeal of the 2011 Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the prerogative power to call general elections was effectively restored to the Prime Minister. As Labour won a Commons supermajority in 2024, albeit due to the distortive effects of the First Past the Post system, Keir Starmer is more likely to push the next general election as far back as possible until (perhaps) his government’s actions are only memories.

However, if another general election were to happen about four years ahead of schedule, what would happen and how would our party respond?

The 2024 election ended nearly a decade of chaos under the Conservatives. Following austerity, a botched Brexit deal, the mismanaged COVID-19 response, corruption and sleaze, the mini-budget and the cost-of-living crisis, the British people voted to get them out of office, which by default got Labour into power. It also witnessed increased fortunes for third parties. Whilst we won 72 seats, near-proportionate to our total vote share, the three highest-polling third parties – the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK and the Green Party of England and Wales – won a combined vote share of one-third, comparable to Labour’s. The UK election was one of many in 2024 that followed a worldwide anti-incumbency trend, and the failed delivery of meaningful change has prompted this call for a new election.

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Young people need liberal listening, not authoritarian threats

Young people, so says the DWP Secretary, must ‘learn or earn’ or lose benefits. Be warned, dear reader, this is an angry post.

This announcement by Liz Kendall has put three things in my mind. Firstly, never underestimate the excessive power of rhyme in policy creation. Secondly, the authoritarian parties will never resist the temptation to hammer young people with a mixture of higher expectations and the threat of less money. Thirdly, it reminded me of one of the formative experiences for my liberalism.

I have worked with young people during a couple of periods in a varied career. The young people …

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