Category Archives: Op-eds

Pay Attention Britain!

    It’s only been a little over a month since Donald Trump’s return to power and already the world feels a lot less safe; our future a lot less secure.

    His governing style is bluster, bullying, bribery and blackmail. Sidelining Congress in favour of executive fiat, dismantling the US federal structures that threatens the reversal of 80 years of US foreign policy and world order.

    Even our right-wing media are rattled.

    On Wednesday, the Telegraph editorial (while stating the bleeding obvious) read – Sir Keir Starmer will need to tread carefully today as he sets out to gain Washington’s support in several key policy areas. The Prime Minister cannot be seen to overly concede to Donald Trump, but he also cannot risk angering the leader of the world’s largest economy at a time when Britain is on the brink of recession.

    Yesterday, The Mail on Sunday’s headline proclaims (with uncustomary frankness) – Now Stop the State Visit for Bully Trump!

    Sadly, once again our government wrong-steps in its response to a crisis.

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Starmer is living in a dreamworld. Britain must choose between Europe and Trump’s America

What a difference a day makes. On Thursday, the Prime Minister Keir Starmer went to Washington DC to meet with President Donald Trump. There, in the White House, Starmer had a jovial and good-spirited meeting and press conference with the new US President. The press hailed the Prime Minister’s visit as a triumph referring to it as a “love-in” and a “bromance”. It appeared to vindicate Starmer’s strategy of walking a delicate diplomatic tightrope between Europe and the new American administration.

But then came Friday. President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s wartime leader, who is viewed by many to be a modern Churchill, sat in the same seat in the Oval Office as Starmer had done. However, Zelensky’s meeting with Trump could not have represented a greater contrast to that of Starmer’s a day earlier. There, Zelensky was subjected to berating and bullying from Trump and his Vice President JD Vance. Trump and Vance brought absolute shame on to the Office of the Presidency by goading and bullying Zelensky. All of which played into the hands of Vladimir Putin and his fascist attempt to conquer Ukraine.

Starmer’s dream day in the Oval Office has quickly turned into a living nightmare. Trump’s treatment of Zelensky reveals an uncomfortable truth. That in this increasingly divided and polarised world, Britain cannot continue to walk a diplomatic tightrope between Europe and Trump’s America. Britain will have to decide who it stands with. Do we stand with most other European democracies in defending what remains of the liberal rules-based order, or do we stand with Trump in forging a harsh world of realism, authoritarianism and post-truth politics?

In the EU, the likely next German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has called for greater European independence from America. There are even serious considerations about the creation of a common European army, especially as Trump’s America is no longer seen as a reliable NATO partner. Britain, along with the rest of Europe, must free itself from its dependency on America, especially on matters of defence. We Europeans must stand on our own two feet. We must embrace being the leaders of the free world, a position that Trump vacated on Friday when he sided with Putin against Zelensky. 

There are significant risks for Britain in choosing to side with Trump over Europe. A cutthroat trade deal with Trump’s America that forced us to reduce our trading standards and economic regulations would be bad for our economy. It would also kill any hopes of getting a stronger trading relationship with the EU. Britain should not allow Trump to bully us into accepting an unfavourable trade deal through the threat of increased tariffs. The Trump Administration has also taken aim at Britain’s attempts to combat hate speech and discrimination. To reduce such protections would only embolden the far-right even further. In short, if we side with Trump, then Britain risks being reduced to a vassal state of Trump’s America.

However, it is far from certain that Starmer will take Britain closer to Europe. Take for example, the Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper, rebutting the idea of a youth mobility scheme with the EU. Ed Davey has rightly called for Britain to join a customs union with the EU. Yet, even this proposal, one that would bring clear economic benefits, has not been supported by Labour. The fact that Labour cannot support even the most reasonable and modest proposals for strengthening our relationship with Europe is a cause for concern.

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Peace abroad, peace at home: Addressing the Liberal Democrats’ Achilles’ heels 

On Friday, the Starmer Government witnessed its first departure on principle as Anneliese Dodds, the Minister for International Development, resigned. With Keir Starmer having announced an increase in defence spending to 2.5% of Gross Domestic Product  by 2027, Dodds criticised the corresponding cut in international development from 0.5% of GDP to 0.3%, saying that it would ‘remove food and healthcare from desperate people – deeply harming the UK’s reputation’.

Starmer has said that there is ‘no driver of migration and poverty like conflict’ and Dodds gave him the benefit of the doubt by stating that he was not ‘ideologically opposed’ to international development. Nevertheless, Labour have broken a manifesto pledge. On page 125 of their 2024 manifesto Change, they pledged to increase the UK’s international development budget to 0.7% of GDP, reversing a cut made by the Conservatives. Reducing Britain’s soft power capacity will likely instigate rather than quell conflict.

As this episode coincides with Keir Starmer’s visit to Washington, it would not be beyond the realms of possibility that his new spending decisions are driven by pandering rather than prudence. Increasing national defence spending would be a sound means of endearing the UK to Donald Trump who has lambasted NATO allies for not spending enough in this regard, and a sound insurance policy considering his scepticism of the alliance and his wide-eyed admiration for strongman authoritarians such as Vladimir Putin.

However, the converse decrease in international development spending is a blatant attempt by Starmer to ingratiate himself with Trump by aping his administration’s actions. The Department of Government Efficiency and Elon Musk in their questionable quest to cut $2 trillion worth of federal spending – or 15% of the total US budget – have endeavoured to shut down the US Agency for International Development. Even the temporary funding freezes, overturned through court challenges, have disturbed vital support for programmes combatting diseases including tuberculosis and HIV.

Unfortunately, Labour is also likely playing to a domestic audience. Reform UK have topped several recent opinion polls albeit in the twenties alongside Labour and the Conservatives. By being generally ‘anti’ and actively playing up their position as an opposition party, Reform is drawing in aggrieved supporters  from both major parties. With the Damoclean threat of Reform winning an outright Commons majority in 2029 with even fewer votes than they did in 2024, Labour have decided that following their populist lead is the best course of action.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Germany

Europe’s largest economy and largest population has lurched to the right. Friedrich Merz is on the conservative wing of the right of centre Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The Social Democratic Party (SPD) has been relegated to the number three slot for the first in post-war German history. But, more importantly, the far-right Alternativ fur Deutschland (AFD) is now firmly entrenched in the number two position.

Electoral success such as that enjoyed by the AfD in last weekend’s federal elections would normally ensure a place in a coalition government. Not in Germany, the mainstream parties have agreed to a firewall between themselves and the AfD that prohibits political cooperation between themselves and the AfD.

It was this firewall that was recently attacked as “undemocratic” by US Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference.

But then America does not have the burden of a Nazi past which many Germans fear the AfD threatens to resurrect. It favours remigration which many interpret as a mass deportation of immigrants. It is Euro-sceptic; anti-LGBTQ; pro-Russian; opposes sending military aid to Ukraine and is ambivalent about Germany’s Nazi past. Germany’s Committee for the Protection of the Constitution has designated the AfD as an “extremist right-wing” organisation which means it is being closely monitored by the police and security services.

But the AfD garnered 20.8 percent of the vote—double what it won in the previous federal election. The party—or at least its policies—cannot be disregarded, especially its position on immigration.

The traditional German mainstream parties—CDU/CSU, FDP, SPD and Greens—have tended to deal with the immigration issue by ignoring it. In the case of the CDU, Angela Merkel went further and declared that Germany had a moral responsibility to help refugees and in 2015 admitted more than a million and laid the foundations of a backlash.

The new soon-to-be Chancellor Merz is determined to win back AfD supporters by stealing some of their clothes and introducing tough anti-immigrant legislation.

The difficulty is that the AfD has positioned itself as the only party willing to talk about immigration and propose radical action to tackle the perceived problem. If Merz and the CDU position themselves in this space, they risk being perceived as a less authentic version of the AfD. Voters are convinced that the AfD cares passionately about limiting immigration. They may be less convinced that it is a genuine priority of the CDU.

United Kingdom

The famed British Welfare State is threatened by the American withdrawal from Europe and the resultant increase in defense spending.

In fact, social spending belts across Europe will need to tighten as money is poured into missiles, drones, tanks and howitzer shells to protect Western Europe from the Russian bear.

This week, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, announced that he was cutting overseas aid from 0.5 percent to 0.3 percent to pay for an increase in defense spending from 2.3 to 2.5 percent by 2027 and three percent by the end of the decade.

The cuts in aid will put $15 billion in the British exchequer which is enough to fund the increased spending up to 2.5 percent but not enough to go all the way to three percent. And, the fact is, that three percent is unlikely to be enough. American officials are talking about five percent across Europe if they want to keep Donald Trump happy and in NATO. And if the US abandons Europe as feared than defense costs will be much, much higher.

Britain, devotes 25 percent of GDP on welfare spending and another 10 percent of GDP on the NHS. Other European countries spend between 25 percent and 30 percent on social welfare. Funding structures for health services varies.

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Observations of an Expat: A British Knight in King Donald’s Court

The British Foreign Office set a low bar for Sir Keir Starmer’s trip to America—Don’t fall out with King Donald. He succeeded.

That is not to say that substantive issues were not discussed. They were and included:

Tariffs – and the possibility, nay probability,  of reviving the Johnson era US-UK trade deal that could exempt Britain from the crippling tariffs that Trump has threatened to impose on the EU.

The Chagos Islands – Trump is inclined to go along with the British position.

And Ukraine – On this top of the agenda item Sir Keir failed. Trump was immovable – No backstop. No security guarantees and total confidence in the honesty of fellow dissembler Vladimir Putin.

The tete a tete started with a cringe-making pantomime when in front of the world’s media the prime minister reached into his suit pocket and drew out a letter from King Charles III.

It was the expected invitation to Trump to make an historic second state visit to Buckingham Palace.

Royal Family fan Donald evinced childlike surprise and delight at the expected letter and the friendly tone was set for the private talks in the Oval Office. The first box was ticked.

An Anglo-American trade deal has long been one of Trump’s priorities. Not because of any love for the royal family or the homeland of his mother. No, Donald Trump wants a trade deal with Britain because he hates the EU. It is a threat to American trade hegemony. Trump wants to encourage its break-up and insure that Britain does not return to the European fold by pulling it closer to America.

In any upcoming trade talks the British public will be focused on chlorine-washed chicken, hormone-fed beef and higher prices for NHS drugs. The attention of Trump’s negotiators will be on coordinating regulations across a wide-range of goods and services to make it more difficult for Britain to negotiate re-entry into the European single market and/or customs union.

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The End

February 28, 2025 may well go down in history as the day that the Western Alliance ended and the world was suddenly thrown into an unknown future by a White House bully and his initialled sidekick.

The undynamic duo’s treatment of the president of a country which has sacrificed thousands upon thousands of lives in the cause of the protection of the West shamed the United States and countries who have been in alliance with America.

“Say thank you. Say thank you,” shouted J.D. Vance when he should have been thanking Zelensky for the ultimate sacrifices his countrymen and women have made.

“You are not showing any respect,” said Donald Trump, sounding more like a mafia don then the leader of the Free World. It was draft dodger Trump who should have been respecting wartime leader Zelensky who has—against all odds—held out against the Russian war machine for three years.

Several times Zelensky tried to say thank you and explain his position, but each time he was shouted down by Vance and/or Trump.

At one point Trump pursed his lips shook his head back and forth and repeated in a childishly petulant mocking voice: “I don’t want a ceasefire. I don’t want a ceasefire.”

Again, Zelensky tried to explain that he wants an end to the war but that any ceasefire must come with security guarantees because Putin has broken every ceasefire, treaty and agreement that Ukraine has negotiated with the Russian dictator.

Zelensky flew to Washington to sign a deal which would hand over a major chunk of his country’s mineral rights. Trump said the rare earths that American companies would mine was compensation for the aid that America has given Ukraine. Zelensky agreed to that but also wanted assurances that included in the deal would be future security guarantees. A deal which gave away billions worth of mineral rights in perpetuity without protecting Ukrainian territorial integrity was worthless.

But Trump and Vance were determined to secure the rights and at the same time withdraw American support and bully Zelensky into effectively surrendering to Russia. And it was done before a television audience of billions in what appeared to be an attempt to humiliate the Ukrainian leader. The result was possibly the most disgraceful scene in diplomatic history.

European leaders, Democrats and officials from the first Trump administration seemed to regard it as just that.

John Bolton, Trump’s former National Security Adviser, said on X: “Trump and Vance have declared themselves to be on Russia’s side in the Russo-Ukraine war, This is a catastrophic mistake for America’s national security. And let’s be clear: Trump and Vance now personally own that policy. It is not the view of a majority of Americans of either or no political party.”

>H.R. McMaster another former national security advisor in the first Trump administration, said it is  “impossible to understand” why Trump and Vance “seem determined to put more pressure on President Zelensky while they seem to be coddling Putin—the person who inflicted this terrible war in Ukraine.”

Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, the ranking member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in a post on X said the “outrageous display” from Trump and Vance was “disgraceful” and “downright un-American.”

French president Emmanuel Macron said: “We should respect those who have been fighting since the beginning,”

“Ukraine, you’ll never walk alone,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said via X. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said, “Ukraine, Spain stands with you.” Friedrich Merz, the likely incoming German leader, also said he stands with Zelensky before adding that the “aggressor and victim in this terrible war” must never be confused. Top diplomats for the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, and Finland issued similar messages of support for Kyiv and the Ukrainian president.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen praised Zelensky for his “dignity” and said the bloc will continue working with him “for a just and lasting peace.”

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said: “Estonia’s support for Ukraine remains unwavering. It is time for Europe to step up. We do not need to wait for something else to happen; Europe has enough resources, including Russia’s frozen assets, to enable Ukraine to continue fighting,”

The diplomatic meltdown at the White House comes as European leaders—including Zelensky—are preparing to meet in London on Sunday to discuss their next moves in the Ukrainian imbroglio. Host Sir Keir Starmer sees Britain as bridge between Europe and America. The problem is that Trump and Vance appear to be intent on burning that bridge.

Here is the transcript of Trump, Zelensky, and Vance’s contentious exchange. It has been edited for length and clarity.

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Procurement: The beast in the room

I was very interested in the recent article on NHS procurement. As a small business owner I have had multiple dealing with state procurement systems in all their awful grandeur over the years. They may seem dull but in a wholesale reformation of them lies a method of unlocking a massively more efficient and productive state.

UK procurement rules were originally set up to align with EU Directives and with the laudable objective of providing a level platform for competitive tendering for major projects. However intention and execution rarely coincide with regard to British bureaucracy and, while European governments seem to be able to use procedures as they were designed, as they understand and work to the underlying principles, the UK and Scotland used the creation of an extra ‘process’ to:

  1. Set up a bureaucracy of procurement independent of any real control. Like most bureaucracies this validates itself by indefinite and uncontrolled expansion into areas where it is remarkably ill suited (in Scotland the main procurement body is technically under the control of all 32 Scottish local authorities which means it is de facto under no control at all)
  2. Validates its own success.
  3. Instead of simplifying process creates a giddying layer of documentation, gold plating and multiple entering. This of course requires an ever expanding bureaucracy to administer.
  4. Massively expands requirements on interested suppliers by requiring a morass of irrelevant certifications and documentation. This essentially excludes small and medium sized businesses and instead of expanding the potential number of suppliers slashes them.
  5. Since procurement process is deliberately disconnected from the purpose for which it is intended, every project is simply compressed into one ‘standard’ form without any regard for its suitability. Since those who construct the forms have minimal understanding of what they are trying to do they often enshrine economic lunacy in their construction. Since the process is all and its validation is by endless repetition then innovation is completely discouraged.
  6. The result of this is that those who do tender build in an ‘idiocy’ premium to cover themselves against the obvious incomprehension of the process. Both this and the relatively small number of suppliers who work their way through results not in price competitiveness but substantially enhanced pricing.

In an even more Kafkaesque development procurement bodies will often respond to such criticisms by inviting winners of tenders to help refine their procurement processes! Funnily enough those winner then tend to win repeat tenders!

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Ed Davey: Why I Care – and why care matters

Ed Davey has been writing a book entitled Why I Care: And Why Care Matters, which has been taken up by the publisher HarperCollins. Note that this is a holding cover …

The Bookseller has an article about it, although it is incorrect in stating that it is Ed’s debut – in 2001 he wrote Making MP’s Work for Our Money: Reforming Parliament’s Role in Budget Scrutiny, and he has contributed to several other volumes.

The Bookseller give us a quote from the Editorial director for HarperNorth Jonathan de Peyer:

Ed’s story, which he has so bravely made a key element of his party’s campaigning on the issue of social care, touched millions during the general election. But there’s so much of it we don’t know, and so much about Ed’s efforts to support and empower carers, and to reform the sector, that deserves wider attention. This book is a real passion project for all involved and will galvanise public debate about an issue that touches almost all of us.

The book will be published in May and you can pre-order it here.

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Don’t close public libraries

The closure threat to public libraries across Scotland has highlighted a major flaw in the funding of local authorities. Chronic underfunding over the last 14 years, has resulted in a year-on-year hunt around budget time to find services to cuts.

No where is this better illustrated than in the situation around public libraries, that have been seen as soft targets, and those servicing rural and coastal communities are seen as fair game for savings. In urban areas where there may be several library branches within a city or large town it is an issue, but in the rural and coastal towns the nearest library may be several miles away. In cities the nearest branch that may be a bus ride away, in the rural and coastal areas that bus ride may be hours and on limited timetables.

When a library is closed in a rural or coastal locations it is lost forever.

At a business debate on public libraries in Holyrood on the 5th of February, one contribution by an MSP who had been a local councillor stood out. He noted that when he became a councillor he was subjected to several presentations around funding and budgets.

To quote from the transcript of the meeting; ‘the first week we were there, the chief executive took us all to the side, all us councillors and we had presentation after presentation after presentation that told me they had no money I had to cut budgets there was nothing I could do, and it was all frontline services.

A shocking indictment on how local government operates, and how democratically elected councillors are being treated.

Libraries are the last free, safe civic spaces available to communities. They are havens for those who are seeking to learn and better themselves. Public libraries need to be protected.

Libraries should be seen as an asset to local authorities and not just a cost centre.

In the past, when economic pressures such as the depression of the 1930’s and post WWII period, governments invested in public libraries as a means of sparking regeneration.

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Government needs to fund plan for ME, CFS and Long Covid patients #fundtheplan

The government is about to release their new NHS plan ‘rethinking ME’ but absurdly it’s not actually coming with any funds attached to it, despite the fact there is now irrefutable evidence of its biological existence and the rapidly increasing number of patients, due to the number of Covid long sufferers who meet the diagnostic criteria. Many patients have been let down for decades over the lack of funding, not to mention being treated awfully over the years by the medical community.

The funding for ME/CFS/Long Covid patients is about £40 per patient per annum, one of the lowest of any disease despite the most severe patients having a very quality of life compared to patients with several other illnesses.

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What the Lib Dems can offer on rail

Ask any Brit about their last positive experience on a train – and chances are they will do one of two things: laugh in your face or wax lyrical about one of Spain, the Netherlands, France or Italy.

Despite Britain introducing rail to the world, 200 years ago to this year in fact, the system is creaking – and stories are becoming more horrifying. Overcrowded trains, jaw-dropping ticket prices and endless complaints about on-board wi-fi justifiably fill social media and newspaper articles. After decades of neglect and mismanagement, the UK’s railway network needs more than a fresh lick of paint – it needs a complete rethink. With the government on the cusp of launching their plans to the industry we have the perfect opportunity to propose some liberal ideas to fundamentally improve the offering for passengers.

The new government’s plans are bold and have more cross-party support than one might imagine. Plans to create ‘Great British Railways’ (a singular body to run both rail services and infrastructure) have near universal support. The government will, and perhaps at the time of reading, have already, put forward proposals to unite track and train into one body – citing fragmentation as the reason for the poorly run state of our railways. Broadly, they are spot on: too many chefs occupy the kitchen, leading to a poor quality broth.

Whilst the ‘broad principles,’ as one senior rail figure described to me, are agreed upon – the devil will truly be in the detail – our party needs to ensure good policy outweighs rigid ideology.

For the first time since the mid 1990s, all aspects of the railway – save the leasing of the trains, freight operations and a few other constituent parts – will hinge entirely on government money. In a tight fiscal environment, this should worry anyone who uses the train.

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Balancing compassion with care: Rethinking assisted dying, disability, and palliative services

I have long believed that every individual with a terminal illness should have the autonomy to choose a dignified end to their suffering. I have supported assisted dying, convinced that compassionate legislation can relieve unbearable pain. Recent debates have reignited a conversation that is both deeply personal and political.

My conviction comes from enduring ideals and painful personal experience. In the final week of my mother’s life, I witnessed the physical and emotional anguish of terminal illness. Although her suffering was brief, those days were marked by excruciating pain. Had she had the option of assisted dying, she might have chosen a more controlled, peaceful departure. I remain grateful her pain was short-lived, yet I cannot help but think of those who suffer for far longer.

However, I harbour serious reservations about the current legislative approach. While Kim Leadbeater’s bill recognises individual choice, it risks overshadowing the urgent need for improved palliative care within our NHS. I have been influenced by concerns raised by disability campaigners, including Mary Regnier-Wilson’s tweets. She argues that the bill erodes trust in our healthcare system by pressurising vulnerable individuals into seeing assisted dying as their only escape from a failing support structure.

This perspective underscores a broader fear: that legalising assisted dying without addressing systemic issues will normalise a shortcut in end-of-life care instead of prompting the necessary investment in comprehensive support. Our palliative services remain under-resourced, with funding and staffing shortages and outdated facilities leading to substandard care. The bill’s narrow focus risks diverting attention from these critical reforms.

Critics contend that legalising assisted dying may offer a temporary escape for those in unbearable pain, but it does little to tackle broader healthcare inequalities. In a society where many already suffer from inadequate care, introducing assisted dying without first strengthening essential services feels nonsensical. As one poignant question asks, “what’s the point of living well, if we are unable to help those people die well too?”

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3 New Lib Dem MPs to speak at the Social Liberal Forum pre-conference lunch in Harrogate

The Spring Lib Dem conference in Harrogate starts at 4.30pm on the Friday 21st March. Before that at midday we in the Social Liberal Forum (SLF) are organising a pre-conference lunch event at the Crowne Plaza hotel near the conference centre. 

Last year the spring conference was in York and we organised a similar lunch time event with 3 prospective Lib Dem MPs as speakers; Josh Babarinde, Victoria Collins and Bobby Dean, all of whom got elected last July. This year we invite back Bobby Dean with 2 more new MPs; local MP Tom Gordon and Pippa Heylings who is our spokesperson for energy security and net zero.

They will talk about their personal journey from deciding to join the party to becoming candidates and winning their seats. They will discuss the challenges ahead and how MPs representing the prosperous “Blue Wall” seats may be able to work to benefit people living in the deprived communities in the “Red Wall” seats. They will also share their vision of what it means to be a Lib Dem MP.

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Mark Pack’s February Report: Looking forward to Harrogate

Federal Conference is nearly here

It is fabulous we are not only returning to Harrogate for a Liberal Democrat conference, but that now it is also a venue with a Liberal Democrat MP, following Tom Gordon’s win last July.

The very first winning general election campaign I worked on was that for Phil Willis, also in Harrogate, back in 1997. Back then, we all thought the 1997 election result across the country was a cracking one for our party, winning 46 seats. But we far surpassed that in 2024. People will still smile while saying ‘72’ for a good while yet.

But elections keep on coming, and we have a great opportunity with the May local elections – or rather, the reduced number of them after Labour and the Conservatives decided that democracy is inconvenient when changes are coming to local government.

Even with the reduction in elections, they are still a great opportunity to strengthen our position in the constituencies we won last year, and a great opportunity to build up our strength more broadly too.

For all the damage done to local government by years of cuts and centralisation, billions of pounds in public services will be at stake in the May elections as local government is still at the heart of so many crucial services.

Which makes these elections important not only for our future growth as a party, but also for our immediate power to turn our policies into action to improve people’s lives.

Policies that we will be updating and refreshing at our Federal Conference for the new political landscape we are in. Alongside that we will have the opportunity to discuss lessons from the general election, along with excellent training, a variety of fringes and stalls and much catching up with colleagues from around the country.

Whether by coming in person, or joining online, I hope you join other members by taking part in our Harrogate Conference.

The Agenda and Directory are up on the party website, as is the Federal Board report to Conference, which is in the Reports to Conference booklet.

That Board report includes explanations of the two items of business the Board is proposing in addition to our report: updates to our election regulations, primarily in response to the recommendations of the review carried out by Nick Manners, and a very short constitutional amendment regarding Liberal Democrats Ltd.

Party strategy

Harrogate Conference will also include a consultation session as part of evolving our strategy for the new circumstances of this Westminster Parliamentary cycle. The Board has produced a short note to help give that session some context, which you can read via the party website. If you are not able to make the session, you can also send in comments via [email protected].

Harrogate will also see a presentation from the General Election Review, another important input into our plans for this cycle. The report is available to read here.

Measuring success

If there were media outlets as keen to talk up the Liberal Democrats as some are to talk up Reform, then we would be hearing a lot about how Lib Dem support has surged to increase by half. That is because so far in this Parliament, we are averaging 12% in the polls, compared with 8% for the same period in the last Parliament.

While the increase may cause us quiet satisfaction, and the absence of media coverage for it quiet frustration, the most important point about the increase is that it shows one of our key assumptions for the 2024 general election playing out. That is, that national vote share is – in the current set of circumstances – a consequence of success rather than a cause of success.

In other words, we managed a history-breaking seat haul alongside a small increase in our vote share because, under first past the post, national vote share is only very weakly correlated with success for a party like ours. Hence 2024 (72 seats) was a triumph while 1983 (23 seats) was not, even though the Alliance’s vote share in 1983 was just over double ours in 2024.

Remembering to focus on winning under the political system in front of us served us well in the last Westminster Parliamentary cycle, and it will do so again in this.

Internal election news

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Ed Davey: Britain must lead on defence AND aid

In an email to Party members, Ed Davey set out his support for the Prime Minister’s plans to raise defence spending – though he urged him to go faster and to get all-party talks going to work out how. However, he criticised the fact that it was being funded from the international aid budget.  The Liberal Democrats have long championed international aid and it was our Michael Moore who successfully enshrined the previous 0.7% target in law back in 2015.

Watch Ed’s reaction to the Prime Minister’s statement yesterday:

Ed said in his email:

Today, the Prime Minister did what we’ve been urging him to do for years: commit to increasing Britain’s defence spending to 2.5% of GDP.

That is essential. With Vladimir Putin waging war on our continent, and Donald Trump in the White House cosying up to him, this is the most perilous moment for Europe in my lifetime.

Trump is threatening not only to betray the brave Ukrainian people, who have heroically resisted Putin’s war machine for the past three years, but also to undermine peace and security across Europe – including here in the UK.

In the face of that threat, the UK must step up and lead in Europe – and that has to include a big boost to defence spending. Today I urged the Prime Minister to go even further and bring all parties together to get to 3% of GDP as soon as possible.

But while we agree with the Government on the urgent need to spend more on defence, we have a clear difference of opinion on how to fund it. We have set out a clear plan to raise that money by increasing the Digital Services Tax on the profits of social media firms and other tech giants.

But Labour – along with the Conservatives and Reform – say it should instead be paid for by cutting international development spending. That is a big mistake.

The Conservatives already cut back on international aid when they were in power, and that did enormous damage to the UK’s soft power around the world. Deeper cuts now – at the same time as Donald Trump and Elon Musk are gutting America’s aid programmes – will only leave a vacuum for Russia and China to fill, strengthening the hand of authoritarian regimes and further undermining our security.

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The NHS Procurement Maze: Why SMEs are being shut out of public sector contracts

I never thought I would end up writing an article about NHS procurement—which, on the face of it, sounds like a terribly dry subject. But having recently navigated the system on behalf of an SME, I have seen first hand how its failings contribute to waste, inefficiency, and the exclusion of innovative and agile suppliers.

Due to a conflict of interest and confidentiality concerns, I am posting this anonymously to avoid disadvantageing my client in an ongoing tender.

The SME I work with has decades of experience supplying medical equipment to international governments, NGOs, and global health organisations; in the past 12 months we’ve delivered over 150 tonnes of medical kit to various humanitarian organisations internationally. Yet despite successfully delivering to healthcare systems worldwide, they remain locked out of the UK market due to the NHS’s absurd, Kafkaesque procurement process. It is easier for UK companies to sell to the United Nations than the NHS.

Reforming NHS procurement won’t make for a catchy campaign leaflet. A Focus Leaflet titled “Better NHS Procurement” would likely be left unread by most voters, nor do I imagine the next Lib Dem Battle bus to be emblazoned with “Making NHS Procurement Fairer” (almost as bad as Stronger Economy, Fairer Society).

But if we are serious about NHS reform, we cannot afford to focus only on treatment and waiting times. Procurement is the foundation of how NHS services are resourced and delivered. If the system is flawed, patient care suffers.

The rationale for NHS Procurement’s complexity—and why it still fails SMEs

Some argue that NHS procurement’s complexity is necessary to ensure quality, compliance, and supply chain security. And after the PPE scandals of the Covid period, that is understandable. However, the system confuses necessary oversight with unnecessary red tape, creating a bureaucratic obstacle course that disproportionately disadvantages SMEs, and actually costs the NHS more. 

A bureaucratic obstacle course

SMEs entering the NHS procurement system face an administrative onslaught. Instead of a streamlined, user-friendly platform, they encounter excessive duplication of compliance paperwork—the same details must be submitted across multiple forms rather than being stored centrally for easy reference.

Ironically, the NHS has centralised its procurement but still requires suppliers to manually provide the same information in different places, often in slightly different formats. This isn’t just duplication—it’s decuplification (doing everything times 10).

Take, for example, Information Security. Despite not handling patient data, the SME had to justify compliance with 200+ security questions and create 20+ new policies to meet NHS data standards for patient data collection.

Even financial and insurance compliance becomes an exercise in bureaucracy. The same insurance documents had to be uploaded in four different places, simply because different sections of the tender required them separately. This highlights a fundamental flaw in NHS procurement: centralisation has not simplified the process—it has only increased the volume of paperwork.

NHS Supply Chain also mandates significant discounts from suppliers without providing any volume guarantees, meaning SMEs risk making a loss unless the NHS orders enough products to break even. Additionally, all delivery charges must be included in the quoted price—meaning that for low-cost items like a 50p scalpel handle, an SME must absorb shipping costs until orders reach a viable quantity.

SMEs are required to provide extensive documentation on social value contributions, despite having fewer resources than large corporations. The level of evidence required (impact assessments, reports, case studies) can be an additional bureaucratic burden, rather than a proportionate measure of social value.

While sustainability goals are important, SMEs are expected to provide carbon reduction plans at the same level as large multinational corporations, without proportional adjustments. 

The process forces SMEs to adhere to reporting standards that are disproportionately burdensome for smaller suppliers. While large corporations have entire sustainability teams dedicated to completing these reports, SMEs are expected to meet the same extensive standards, despite having significantly fewer resources.

The framework contract structure places heavy financial burdens on suppliers. SMEs must commit to pricing for extended periods, yet payment terms and ordering patterns remain uncertain. The NHS often takes months to pay invoices, creating cash flow problems for suppliers.

Despite the NHS’s stated commitment to SME participation, the tender process does not offer streamlined or proportional requirements tailored for smaller businesses. SMEs must navigate the same extensive documentation, cybersecurity, and compliance hurdles as multi-billion-pound corporations.

Suppliers must repeatedly submit the same financial and product data across different spreadsheets and compliance portals, with no guarantees of orders to justify long-term framework pricing.

This echoes Kafka’s The Trial, where the protagonist is forced to defend himself against an opaque legal system without clear justification for the charges against him—a perfect parallel to the NHS procurement process.

The hidden cost of excluding SMEs

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I’ve seen assisted dying first-hand – and it speaks to the heart of our shared Liberal Democrat values

My mother died last year. She was an amazing woman, as an academic, a mother, a mountaineer and much more. But her breast cancer had metastasised to her stomach and abdomen, killing her. But because she lived in New South Wales, Australia, she could choose Voluntary Assisted Dying, and was able to control how, when, and where she would die. That mattered immensely to her, empowering her to end her life with dignity, how she chose.

When I was an MP, I was keen to see the UK pass legislation to enable this in the UK – but the opportunity never arose. I’m delighted that Kim Leadbeater did propose an Assisted Dying Bill, and have been following it closely before and after the key second reading debate. Today’s MPs have this chance once again and I am meeting with Parliamentarians today to argue that they must deliver this long overdue reform.

Assisted dying is an issue of both principle and practice. As a Liberal Democrat, I have always shared commitments to liberty, equality, and human rights. These values are the foundation of my conviction on this issue. Allowing people to make their own decisions at the end of life is both the liberal and the Liberal thing to do. I was so pleased and proud to see that, in line with these values, the vast majority of Liberal Democrat MPs (85%) supported this Bill at Second Reading, especially given our manifesto commitment to making time for a full and fair debate. But as ever, it is the combination of the personal and the political that makes my support for law change so urgent.

My mother, Professor Felicia Huppert, was a pioneering psychologist with academic expertise and interest in well-being and peace of mind in healthcare settings and beyond. Her work covered everything from aging and dementia to positive psychology and wellbeing – one of her last articles was entitled, appropriately “Compassion at the heart of well-being”. She was also a liberal – a founder member of the SDP. Her books – especially on ‘Creating the world we want to live in’ and ‘The Science of Wellbeing’ could be essential reading for anyone – liberal or otherwise, who wants to think about how to empower people to make their lives better.

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Third Anniversary of the Invasion of Ukraine: There Are No Easy Options Left

Bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory.

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy

Three years ago the Russian invasion of Ukraine became too loud for Europe and the world to ignore. The truth that those same countries could not admit before then, is that the Russian invasion of Ukraine had actually started in 2014 with the invasion of Crimea and the start of the Donbass War. Far from fighting for their independence for three years, Ukrainians have actually been fighting for over 10 years.

What prevented Ukraine’s now allies, and the US, from recognising what …

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Gnus and Goats: The Liberal Democrats’ Approach to Coalition Building in 2029

Today, Germany faces a test at its 2025 federal election. Following the atrocities of the National Socialists, will enough Germans be willing to support far-right politics to the extent that the Eurosceptic, anti-immigration and Islamophobic Alternative für Deutschland could become a major player in German politics.

Based on current polling, the left-leaning traffic light coalition – comprising the Social Democrats, the Free Democrats and Alliance 90/The Greens – is likely to collapse and the conservative Union parties positioned to lead the next government. AfD is currently polling in a strong second place, potentially able to form a right-leaning midnight coalition with the Union parties. However, as it is subject to a cordon sanitaire, a Union-SPD grand coalition is the most likely – and most favoured – outcome of this election.

Under the rules of Germany’s mixed-member proportional system, our sister party the Free Democrats may be evicted from the Bundestag. Deputies are elected either through single-member constituencies under First Past the Post or through a national list, with parties needing to win five per cent of the national vote to be guaranteed representation via the latter. Sadly, the FDP is polling below this threshold. Based on current polling, other parties that could win Bundestag representation and thus serve as potential non-AfD coalition partners include the Greens, Die Linke, and Reason and Justice.

However, if AfD is left out of government, the formation of a grand coalition or equivalent (blackberry or Kenya) could see the party gain a beneficial position as the official opposition. If a Union-SPD-led coalition is unable to tackle many of the problems facing Germany, such as inflation or deindustrialisation, AfD will be able to criticise it and lay the groundwork for a victory at the next election.

Whatever the results of Germany’s federal election, they should serve as a salutary lesson to us Liberal Democrats going into the next general election. Like Germany, the UK has an unpopular left-leaning (Labour) government and an insurgent far-right populist party (Reform UK) with a groundswell of support. However, unlike Germany, our major social democratic party is governing alone, the UK uses FPTP for its national elections, and the right-wing populist party rather than the traditional conservative party has been leading in many polls. In fact, some projections suggest that Reform could form a government in its own right with only a quarter of the national vote.

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Young Liberals Conference Roundup

Last weekend, Young Liberals held our first Conference of 2025! 

Behind the scenes at LDHQ with Lucas and Ulysse

Unfortunately, due to issues with our venue, we had to cancel our plans to head to Cardiff for our first Welsh Conference in seven years, instead moving online. This was arranged very quickly, and I’m so grateful to the team of volunteers – including our Events Officer, Lucas and Policy Officer, Ulysse – who agreed to spend their weekend at LDHQ to help run the tech.

Policy

It wouldn’t be a Lib Dem Conference without policy and constitutional wonkery, and there was plenty of both this time. 

We called out Labour’s unfair bus tax, calling for fairer fares, and an integrated ticketing network for bus transport in England. YL also supported a motion looking at how to bring disused railway lines back into use to boost connectivity across the country and improve access to electric vehicles such as mopeds to bring down costs.

We also called for the UK Government to recognise Somaliland in light of the ongoing crises faced by civilians there, and their desire to adopt a new constitution and align with the Commonwealth.

You can check out all YL policies here.

Training

For the first time at a YL Conference, we ran a number of parallel fringe and training sessions across the weekend. This more than doubled the time available for membership development and training and meant we could run sessions on a variety of campaigning, diversity, and party issues.

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The price of peace: Budgeting for a secure future

History offers a sobering lesson. Winston Churchill warned of the perils of underinvestment in defence long before the threat of Nazi aggression materialized. His insistence on prioritising military strength, though initially disregarded, ultimately underscored a simple truth: a nation must be prepared to protect itself if it is to safeguard its values and its future. Today, we stand at a similar crossroads.

Recent polling from YouGov reveals something both encouraging and challenging for us as Liberal Democrats. Our supporters show a striking commitment to the cause: 42% strongly agree that we should continue providing military assistance to Ukraine—the highest among all political parties. Seventy percent back the idea of British peacemakers being deployed to Ukraine, and 57% believe that our defence spending should be nudged upward from 2.3% to 3%. These figures are a clear nod to our belief that supporting Ukraine is not just a moral duty but a strategic imperative. It is a vote of confidence in the values that have guided us through turbulent times.

Yet, even as these numbers celebrate our commitment to international security, a contradiction emerges. A significant 44% of respondents, the highest of any political party, insist that maintaining public services should take precedence—even if that means defence spending cannot be increased. This division is not just a statistic—it is a reminder that peace, however desirable, comes at a price.

This poll lays bare a tension that is as old as democracy itself: balancing the immediate needs of our citizens with the long-term necessities of national security. History teaches us that neglecting defence can leave a nation vulnerable. Churchill’s era was a stark lesson; ignoring the call for robust defence spending had dire consequences. Today, the price of peace must be weighed with the same seriousness. While we cherish our public services, we cannot ignore the imperative to safeguard our nation and its allies.

Some might argue that there’s no room for increased expenditure without impacting vital public services. Yet, the very strength of our public institutions depends on a secure and stable environment. Our current political debate—even within our own ranks—echoes a familiar refrain: the challenge of raising funds without stifling growth. Recent criticisms of the Labour government’s stance, which leaves little fiscal flexibility by refusing to adjust major taxes, further underscore this conundrum.

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How we’re using our alternative Council budget to take the fight to Labour

I cannot recall a government that has lost its sheen so quickly. Let down after let down, disappointment after disappointment. Winter Fuel Payments, keeping the two child benefit cap, kicking social care into the long grass, betraying WASPI women and enough freebies and scandals to match the Tories! Just seven months in and already the resentment towards this Labour government is palpable on the doorstep.

Here in Southwark, where we are now one of the top Liberal Democrat challengers to a held Labour seat in the country, we are used to being let down by Labour. For 15 years they have controlled the council, and they have been mired in housing scandals, delivered poor service for residents, and let crime and anti-social behaviour spiral out of control. Content with blaming us, the Tories, or frankly anyone who isn’t the Labour party, they have finally run out of excuses. 

We’re using our alternative budget to show that politics is about choices, and only Liberal Democrats are making the right calls for our communities. 

The cost of living remains high, and locally and nationally Labour are doing nowhere near enough to support those who are choosing between eating and heating. That’s why we are, once again, offering bespoke support for those who need it most, by effectively freezing council tax for the poorest, and putting more money into our local Cost of Living Fund. 

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Europe and United States

The European tag team of Starmer and Macron is off to Washington next week. The British Prime Minister and the French President will be trying to persuade Trump to save the Western Alliance by continuing to back Ukraine.

It will be a difficult if almost impossible task given the flood of anti-Zelensky, anti-European and pro-Russian rhetoric that has been pouring out of Washington. But they must but try.

Macron will be the first to arrive. He will sit down with President Trump on Monday.

The French president has taken the lead in trying to rally Europe-wide support for Ukraine with two Paris summits within a few days of each other. He has argued for years that the danger of American isolationism required Europe to increase its defences to fill the American vacuum.

At the summits he proposed that European countries despatch a peacekeeping force of up to 30,000 troops to guard key parts of Ukraine’s infrastructure. They would be supported by Western air and sea power.

Keir Starmer arrives at the White House on Thursday. The British took the lead in supporting Ukraine and continue to do so. The prime minister supports the idea of a peacekeeping force, but only as part of a ceasefire agreement and only with “an American backstop.”

Starmer has been vague about what the backstop would involve, but it is likely that he would want a guarantee of US air support.

However, the peacekeeping proposal could be dead in the water before it reaches the Oval Office. Germany is opposed to it. Chancellor Olof Scholz said such a proposal is premature and would be a serious escalation. Vladimir Putin has rejected any deal that involves European troops based in Ukraine.

Ukraine

What are the negotiating positions in Ukraine? There are four actors, only two of which have started talking: The US, Russia, Ukraine and Europe.

Donald Trump’s immediate objective is clear: Stop the fighting. And he appears ready to concede victory to Russia to achieve that aim. Longer-term, Trump clearly wants to withdraw American military support from Europe and move it into the Indo-Pacific region. The US president also appears to want rehabilitate Russia in order to gain access to that country’s natural resources.

Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine. In the short term he wants recognition for the Russian annexation of Crimea and the Donbas Region (including parts which it has not occupied). He also wants guarantees that Ukraine will be demilitarised; will not be allowed to join NATO and that no western (European or American) troops will be based in Ukraine. He also wants a pro-Russian government in Kyiv. Putin wants to win so that he can use victory in Ukraine as a springboard to exert Russian influence over Eastern Europe and beyond so that Russia is once again a Great Power.

Ukraine’s wants are simpler. It wants Russia out of its territory and guarantees that it will be protected in the future through membership of NATO. In the short-term Volodomyr Zelensky will agree to a ceasefire along the current front line if it is backed up by European/American peacekeepers.

Europe is riddled with differences. Despite what many Americans think, Europe is not one country. It is 27 members of the EU, Britain and a few small states. But with a few exceptions, Europe is united in wanting to contain a resurgent Russia and regards Ukraine as fighting a war on its behalf. Europeans regard NATO and American support as crucial in their aims. Europe—as a collection of countries—has given more aid to Ukraine than anyone else. After years of American pressure they are increasing defense spending and building up their militaries to replace American troops. But it takes time and they face an uphill task persuading Donald Trump to give them that time.

NATO

Here’s the good news: Donald Trump cannot unilaterally decide to withdraw from NATO. In December 2023 the NATO Enhancement Act was passed by Congress (co-sponsored by the current Secretary of State Marco Rubio). This bill required the president to seek a two-thirds majority of the Senate before withdrawing from the NATO Alliance.

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How do we deal with this epidemic of Nazi salutes?

Steve Bannon has become the latest high profile political figure to give a fascist salute, with this one coming during the increasingly extreme CPAC convention.

I suspect that if a decade ago, you told someone that we would be having a debate on whether or not this is acceptable, you would have been met with incredulity, yet here we are. Of course, it all originated from Elon Musk. And if this had been an isolated incident, followed by a swift apology, then I could probably accept it. Perhaps I am being generous, but I honestly don’t believe Musk deliberately gave that salute – I believe he is a physically awkward individual who got carried away and performed a gesture that is, unfortunately, pretty much an exact replica of a fascist salute. Any reasonable person, on having this pointed out to them, would apologise immediately and pledge to be more careful in future.

But Musk, who seems determined to build his entire public persona around trolling his political foes (and I use the word ‘trolling’ very deliberately – most of his views are derived from internet memes and viral content with scant regard for factual accuracy), is not a reasonable person. Instead, he gave the impression of finding the furore it caused rather funny. In a more sensible political age, his supporters would have been keen not to shine a light on this most injudicious of actions, but we are so politically polarised now that they felt they had to not just back him but copy him. It reminds me of one of the very few true statements to have been uttered by Donald Trump – that he could “stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and (he) wouldn’t lose any voters”. Although ostensibly joking, there was sadly more truth in this than perhaps even he realised. The same is now broadly true of Elon Musk.

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Observations of an Expat: Zelensky’s Options

Volodomyr Zelensky has had a tough job since February 2022. And since the election of Donald Trump it has become a whole lot tougher.

In just the past ten days the American president and his acolytes have gone over his head and behind his back to negotiate directly with Russia’s Vladimir Putin; accused Zelensky of being a dictator; demanded virtual total control of the Ukrainian economy; ruled out Ukrainian membership of NATO and the return of territory; accused Ukraine of starting the war and undermined negotiations by announcing that Russia “holds the cards.”

Trump has also damaged relations with NATO allies by cutting them out of any negotiations about Ukraine’s future, despite the fact that Ukraine is in Europe and the Europeans have contributed more to its defense then the US.

But hold on. Zelensky and his European allies have a few cards of their own.

The biggest ones involve cash. Russia is spending and leaking money and earning less and less while its bills pending pile grows bigger and bigger.

Let’s start with its Sovereign Wealth Fund (aka National Wealth Fund or NWF). This has been the main source of ready cash for Putin’s “special military operation.” In January 2022, the NWF coffers held $210 billion. At the start of this year, the fund had dwindled to $116 billion. But wait, it’s even worse than that. Almost all of the war spending comes from liquid reserves which have shrunk more than 75 percent from $130 billion to $40 billion.

At the current rate of spending, Putin will run out of liquid cash in less than a year. His borrowing options are limited. The IMF and World Bank are out of the question, as are western commercial banks. This leaves the Chinese who would doubtless drive a hard bargain.

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Ten years on – it’s time for change

Ten years ago I wrote in Lib Dem Voice about the need for a governance review of the English Party. I urged consideration of what functions of the State party could be better delivered at a Federal level, recognising money and time are always in short supply (not much changes there then!).

In that article I highlighted the Westminster candidate approval process as a function that should be coordinated Federally, with key State and Regional volunteers therefore benefiting from a more efficient, joined-up structure. More broadly I pointed out; “The current situation is a mess. Most members think they belong to the Federal Party (impossible in fact) and can vote for the committees which look after campaigning (but the Federal Party has no role over candidate approval).”

Roll forward a decade and last week I was struck by a strong sense of déjà vu.

I read this article from Julian Tandy (Welsh State Chair of Candidates) and Charles Dundas (Campaigns and Candidates Convener of the Scottish Lib Dems) and I see the challenge of doing Federalism properly continues still, and that decade old “mess” I referred to, remains.

I hope all of us who have been active in the English Party will pause and take with humility their unhappiness at feeling dictated to by the English Party. That may be uncomfortable to hear, but the best way to respect their complaint about not being listened to is to listen and act, not to dismiss them as wrong.

As a councillor some problems can be quick to fix, some take a little longer – but ten years? Even in local government terms that would be considered a long wait! But is a growing movement for change gathering steam? And, perhaps the bigger question to ask is: “Will the English Party finally get on board”?

Just like Charles and Julian, I will be backing Tim Farron’s motion (F10) at Harrogate conference which seeks to make our Westminster candidates system a Federal function.

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How do we defend liberalism from this attack?

Liberal democracy is not the default setting for forms of government.  Autocracy, or dictatorships, are.   Liberal democracies, and the open and liberal societies on which they rest, have to be constructed through political struggle and persuasion, and defended once established through similarly vigorous activity.

We can all now see how direct and determined current attacks on liberalism are: well-funded, by a cross-national coalition of hard-right parties actively supported by the Trump Administration in the USA.  This week they gathered in London for the second conference of the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship, jointly funded by Paul Marshall (majority owner of GB News, who has long since drifted away from his SDP candidacy and Liberal Democrat support to the dark side of right-wing politics) and Christopher Chandler, a multi-millionaire based in Dubai.  Kemi Badenoch gave a ‘keynote’ speech at the conference.  Nigel Farage was interviewed, embarrassed as a double divorcee at being asked about his support for family values.  Hungarian, Australian, Italian and other ‘alt-right’ figures thronged the conference, although the themes predominantly followed American culture wars and Christian nationalism.  What we have seen show how far the British right, including the Conservative Party as well as Reform, have been colonised by American right-wing think-tanks and foundations.  GB News is fully on board; the Mail and the Telegraph seem unsure of how far to support this Americanization of British politics.

What unites this diverse coalition is their shared hatred for liberalism and ‘the woke virus’.  For the most articulate, this extends to a rejection of the modern state and the principles of social democracy, reasserting male supremacy, traditional roles for women and repression of ‘deviations’ like homosexuality.  The ‘dark enlightenment’, a concept that Peter Thiel has espoused and whose most articulate proponent was a guest of honour at Trump’s second inauguration, holds that freedom is incompatible with democracy and that society should return to the pre-rational hierarchy of the 18th century.  Others believe that strong men shape history, society and economy– citing Nietsche, Ayn Rand and Thomas Carlyle.

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Devolution – whither localism? Part 2

The government’s White Paper on devolution within England proposes unitary local authorities with a minimum population of 500,000, as discussed in part one of this article. The other significant structural proposal is for Mayoral Strategic Authorities (or Combined Authorities) to be rolled out across all of England over time. The Paper suggests a minimum population of 1.5 million for MSAs where practicable.

This proposal is a dog’s dinner at many levels. Where to begin? Nationally, we will continue to see Greater London as a single authority of nearly 10 million people whilst most of non-metropolitan England will likely see a multitude of smaller MSAs, perpetuating the imbalance set about by the abandonment of regionalisation plans in 2004, a few years after the creation of the Greater London Authority.

Labour and Conservatives aren’t interested in decentralisation, only faux-devolution and obfuscation of accountability. Mayors will operate on tax precepts that are miniscule compared to their grants from Westminster. The White Paper is full of nonsense jargon such as “Integrated Settlements”, “local growth allocations” and “consolidated funding pots”. This is not a recipe for good democratic government.

Liberal Democrat policy, on the other hand, is empowering, rational, far-reaching and forward-looking. We call for powerful regions with parliamentary government: proper, pluralistic democracy with full accountability. Legislative decentralisation will be accompanied by fiscal decentralisation: taxation will move away from Westminster and directly to the regions. That is real devolution.

Our call for regionalisation of England is tied to our policy for a federal UK because the two issues are somewhat interdependent. Similarly, the structure of local government is tied somewhat to the nature of the regions or sub-regions that contain them. Both large-scale regional government and unitary local councils are good ideas in their own right, but only if done properly. Sadly, the current government are implementing neither well.

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We should be spending 4% of GDP on defence

As Liberal Democrats our first task is to keep our society as fair, free and open as we can.

This society is threatened by a more aggressive Russia and a less reliable USA. This threat has to be right at the top of our thinking. The external environment has changed a lot and will require us to spend more on defence.

Determining how much more should be based on what it will cost to meet the threats we face.  It shouldn’t be based on what Rachel Reeves thinks we can afford in order to balance the books, or on what we spend now plus a little bit, or on what Donald Trump tells us. We need to defend the country, rather than make a spreadsheet add up.

The currency for the debate has been defence spend as a % of GDP. This isn’t a good way of working out what we need, but is a helpful shorthand for the debate. In 2024 this was 2.3%, and our spring conference motion on The UK’s Response to Trump urges the government to set a timetable to get this to 2.5% – a task the government is already committed to. Kemi Badenoch said this week that she would love to be able to get to 3% but that the party couldn’t ‘make the numbers work’ – the spreadsheet again. Reform set a target of 3% within 6 years in their 2024 election manifesto.

None of this sounds enough. There is ample evidence that the current defence budget is not sufficient even to support yesterday’s needs. The threat has increased and the support from across the Atlantic is decreasing. When we last faced an aggressive Russia in the 70’s and 80’s, we were spending just over 4% of GDP on defence. And that was with a supportive USA.  It is hard to see why the requirement would be less than this now.

This is a substantial increase – around £45bn a year. But it is likely to be the price of freedom.  After allowing for inflation, GDP per head today is roughly twice what it was in 1980, and we were able to afford this level of spend then.  There is pressure on public finances but we cannot let this stop us having the right conversation and making the right choices.

Supply chain and other constraints stop an immediate increase to this level of spend. But lead times are long and we need to commit to a plan quickly (and pray for breathing space in the meantime).

Somebody needs to call this out. The government has hemmed itself in to a narrative that is all about balancing the books. The Tories aren’t stepping up to the plate; they are still a shower.  And Reform is in hock to Trump and inconsistent on Putin.

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A North Atlantic Union: A bold vision for the future

The need for a new alliance

As the world faces increasing geopolitical uncertainty, the nations of the North Atlantic find themselves at a crossroads. With Donald Trump’s isolationist rhetoric and ambitions to bring Canada and Greenland into the US sphere, and with post-Brexit Britain seeking new global partnerships, a strategic realignment is necessary.

A North Atlantic Union (NAU)—consisting of Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, and the UK (with Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland having their own independent voice within the union)—could offer an economic and security framework tailored to the unique needs of these nations. By pooling resources and influence, the NAU could become a major global power, securing economic prosperity, geopolitical stability, and sustainable resource management.

The economic and strategic power of the NAU

While individually, each country plays a significant role in global affairs, together they would form an economic and strategic powerhouse:

  • Combined GDP: The total GDP of the NAU would exceed $6 trillion, making it one of the top five economic blocs in the world—larger than India and rivaling Japan and Germany.
  • Population: With around 100 million people, the NAU would have a significant consumer base, labour force, and influence in international markets.
  • Natural Resources: The union would control one of the largest reserves of oil, gas, fish, and renewable energy sources (hydropower, geothermal, and offshore wind).
  • Strategic Location: The NAU would dominate the Arctic trade routes and play a key role in global maritime logistics.

This economic and demographic strength would give the NAU a powerful voice in global institutions like the UN, WTO, and G7, and a stronger negotiating position in trade agreements with the EU, US, and China.

Pros for each member country

United Kingdom (England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland)

  • Stronger Economic Ties – Brexit has left the UK seeking new economic partners. The NAU would create a common market, improving trade and investment.
  • Increased Global Influence – By leading the creation of a powerful bloc, the UK would regain diplomatic relevance after Brexit.
  • Better Security and Arctic Access – The UK has limited Arctic presence, but through the NAU, it would gain influence in the region’s energy and trade policies.
  • Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish Interests – Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland would benefit from a closer relationship with Norway and Canada, having their own independent voice at the NAU table, balancing their ties between the UK and the EU.

Canada

  • A Stronger Alternative to US Dependence – Canada’s economy is heavily tied to the US. The NAU would diversify trade, reducing dependence on America.
  • Resource and Energy Development – Joint infrastructure projects would open new markets for Canada’s oil, natural gas, and critical minerals.
  • Arctic Leadership – Canada, along with Norway and Greenland, would become a key player in Arctic governance.
  • Stronger Immigration Partnerships – Canada’s immigration-driven economy would benefit from skilled labour from the UK and Norway.

Norway

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