Category Archives: Op-eds

Is the Criminal Justice system broken?

Concerns about knife crime amongst young people, unacceptable delays in the court system, prisons bursting at the seams and yet most reported crime goes unresolved.

The UK has areas of deprivation the likes of which have not been seen since the second world war. There are children and young people with little to do and very little hope or aspiration. How can we punish children for behaviour which is a direct result of the society into which they have been born?

There are now 3.9 million children being brought up in poverty – 2/3rds of whom have a parent in work. Children brought up in poverty are less likely to do well at school, more likely to have health problems, making a demand upon the NHS, and have a shorter life expectancy.

Many children who offend, commit their first offence whilst truanting from school. The educational system has failed them. Children should want to go to school and not have to be made to do so. Schools should encourage children to get involved in organised out of school activity.

Community Policing should be exactly that by re-instating neighbourhood police officers who can be around so that the children know him/her and (s)he knows most of the children by sight.

Many children go on offending sprees between apprehension for an offence and disposal through the courts which is why this period needs to be kept as short as possible and to a matter of days.

Group residential intervention, be it Young Offender Institutions or residential care (secure or otherwise) for young people has been shown to reinforce offending and establish a pattern of offending for life. “Creating Criminals”.

During my social work training my residential placement was in a Remand Home. When boys arrived the others would ask what they had done. Which would usually be greeted by “Oh, is that all”. The story would get progressively serious with each telling and most conversation be about crime. Even if children were rehabilitated the local community would expect them to behave as before and they would soon revert to past behaviour.

Stigma and labelling is responsible for a great deal of anti-social behaviour.

Policies of diversion and alternatives to custody need to be adequately resourced because of the risks involved and capable of fully occupying the child who has offended throughout their waking hours on activities which interest and motivate him/her, so (s)he grows out of his/her offending.

Community-based activities are very visible and, as such, can lead to criticism of rewarding bad behaviour. Society is quite happy to spend £130,000 per child per year on Young Offenders Institutions which is seen as punishment even though it does not work than a fraction of that cost on constructive intervention.

This is why it is important that some of the activity should involve face to face contact with people in need (such as the CSV Children in Care Programme of the 70s and 80s) to change the perception from delinquent to helper in both the young person’s own eyes and in those around them.

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Tactical voting works both ways

I want to thank all those Labour supporters who voted Lib Dem to ensure that a Conservative was not elected in their constituency.

I also want to thank all those Lib Dem supporters who voted Labour for the same reason.

The first time I ever voted it was for Labour. I had been a Liberal supporter from my teens, but my preferred candidate had no chance in my area in South West London. Labour selected a doctor who was black as their candidate, and he came in for all sorts of nasty racist dog-whistle and overt attacks during the election campaign. He seemed a decent man to me so I voted for him. Sadly he did not win, although I was pleased to see him take his seat in the Lords some time later.

The next time I voted I was living in Kingston where I have never had a reason to vote tactically.

Voters have become increasingly sophisticated in their understanding of First Past the Post and tactical voting. We have to thank all the vote switchers for holding their noses, in some cases, and backing the person most likely to defeat the Tory candidate. It worked.

So I was rather taken aback to see comments on social media from some party members moaning about the low Lib Dem figures in some non-target constituencies and complaining that the candidates didn’t do enough campaigning. They assume that the single figure percentages reflect our true base vote. This, of course, flies in the face of our clearly enunciated election strategy, and also the underlying assumption that Lib Dem voters should vote Labour where it would have the desired effect.

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Max Atkinson

Some of you may remember a World in Action TV programme back in 1984 called ‘Claptrap’ in which a first time speaker at the SDP Conference, Ann Brennan, was given an amazing standing ovation. Her success was the result of a social experiment, and the programme tracked the coaching she received from Max Atkinson.

Max was an academic who had studied political speechmaking.  Earlier that year he had published a book titled Our Masters’ Voices: The Language and Body Language of Politics in which he described various public speaking techniques that are almost guaranteed to get applause (ie claptraps). He worked with Ann, who had never given a political speech before, and taught her all the tricks he had observed.  The resulting speech that Ann gave to conference was highly praised at the time and enjoyed more than its 15 minutes of fame.

A few years ago Mark Pack uploaded a very fuzzy copy of the programme to YouTube, so you can watch it here. (If anyone can find a clearer version do let me know).

When he became Leader, Paddy Ashdown took Max Atkinson on as his speechwriter and adviser and they worked as a team for a dozen years.

Max Atkinson and Paddy Ashdown

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Our elections are broken. Let’s fix them!

I’ve always detested First Past the Post. As a child getting into politics, one of the first things I did was learn about all the voting systems out there, and each one I learnt about seemed better than FPTP. 

This election has brought home to me just how flawed this system is, and how rigged it is in favour of the political establishment. I’ve spent much of the last couple of the days reminding people that Labour got just 34% of the votes in this election. Just over a third of voters endorsed Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour, but he’ll spend much of the next five years behaving as if he has the full confidence of the entirety of the British public, and an unlimited mandate to behave as he wishes. We must remember that he simply doesn’t have the confidence of the majority of the British people, and to hold Labour to account as such. 

The biggest losers to our electoral system this time around were Reform UK and the Greens. Both those parties’ seat counts don’t accurately reflect their national support in the slightest. Our system is deliberately exclusive, shutting out parties who aren’t able to geographically concentrate their support, and keeping the two main parties in power. In my opinion, it’s fundamentally undemocratic. 

While FPTP suited us excellently this time around, we need to ensure this doesn’t make us forget our core beliefs. Constitutional Reform has long been at the centre of the Liberal Democrat agenda, and it needs to continue to be. We’re a large block in parliament now, and that gives us a platform. We need to work with whoever might be willing, to ensure our elections are truly representative. 

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The dangers of country before party

It’s just as well that Labour reduced the election slogans on the placards to one word. I hope that Keir Starmer’s verbal repetition of the “country before party” slogan is quickly forgotten. It comes with its own dangers. Patriotism is fine, provided you and your hearers understand what you mean by that word. Unfortunately it is easily confused with nationalism.

The sleaze, cronyism and breaking of rules by government ministers and MPs over the past decade were offences committed by people, elected as Conservatives who put themselves before the country and indeed before their party. If only these miscreants could have been reprimanded in the style of an old-style school head by someone saying “You have let Parliament down, you have let your constituents down, you have let your country down and you have let yourself down.”

We should add “You have let politics down.” Sometimes as political activists we are tempted to despair when we hear a growing number of residents in some areas proclaiming that they are not going to vote because “they are all the same”. Some of those who tarred everyone else with the same Tory brush voted for Farage and his nativist/populists, which is one reason why Starmer’s vacuous slogan should trigger flashing warning lights. Vote switching Conservatives worked wonders for the Lib Dems but I have a certain grudging respect for those lifelong Tories who really did despair, understood that they had no party to vote for and therefore stayed at home.

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2024 Parliament: Lib Dem MPs get to work

This is what the last four years’ hard work has all been about.

Today, 72 Lib Dem MPs and Jennie, the gorgeous guide dog of Torbay MP Steve Darling posed for the 2024 team photo.

How many can you name? If you are not sure, have a look at our posts on our new MPs

Earlier, our MPs had filled up row upon row in the House of Commons, with Ed taking up the place traditionally occupied by the leader of the third party, last occupied by Nick Clegg up until the 2010 election.

Our Parliament really has some incredible pomp and ritual that some might argue reinforces its remoteness from the people. Black Rod is despatched from the Lords to summon senior MPs to read a proclamation from the King that is written in centuries old English.

Back in the Commons, they elect a Speaker who is dragged to the chair as a throwback to the days when being the Speaker was a dangerous occupation so the unfortunate victor was never enthusiastic about taking on the job.

With Lindsay Hoyle duly re-elected unoposed, each party leader was given a chance to say a few words of congratulation and intent:

Here’s Ed:

The text is below:

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A triumph on tenuous ground

The Liberal Democrats pulled off a historic feat in the 2024 general election, clinching a record number of seats and catapulting themselves back into the limelight. Becoming the third party once more and achieving the highest liberal seat tally in a century is nothing to be scoffed at.

Yet, beneath the surface of this triumph lies an uncomfortable truth: the newly minted caucus is both artificially bloated and alarmingly fragile. Whilst the party will no doubt aim to make hay while the sun shines, the shimmering successes of last week could quickly turn sour if the party misreads what’s to come.

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The Liberal Democrats are now Britain’s progressive opposition

Seventy-two seats! Seventy-two! I doubt even in Ed Davey’s wildest dreams, he envisioned us winning so many seats. The “Blue Wall” lies in rubble. The Liberal Democrats now have more seats than at any time in over a century. Not since 1923, when Herbert Asquith was the party leader, have Liberals held so many seats in the House of Commons. We now represent dozens of seats across the South of England. But that’s not all, we also made gains in the North of England, the Midlands, Scotland and Wales. There is something poetic about our 72nd seat (and the final seat to be declared in this election) being that of our late great former leader Charles Kennedy.

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Blair-era veterans given ministerial roles – Starmer does what we should have done in coalition

Embed from Getty Images

Keir Starmer is bringing a few Blair era veterans back into government:

-Jacqui Smith as Higher Education Minister, first elected 27 years ago
-Douglas Alexander as Business Minister, also first elected 27 years ago and now re-elected at the recent election
-Pat McFadden as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, first elected 19 years ago
-Alan Milburn assisting the new Health Secretary, first elected 32 years ago

Between them, those four individuals have a total of 105 years experience in the British parliament/government/public life between them.

Compare that with our first batch of coalition cabinet members (figures as of 2010 when the coalition government was set up):

-Nick Clegg, first elected to the British parliament 5 years previously
-Danny Alexander, first elected to the British parliament 5 years previously
-David Laws, first elected for Yeovil 9 years previously
-Andrew Stunell (OK, I’ll give you that Andrew was a “grey haired” veteran at the time), first elected to the British parliament 13 years previously
-Chris Huhne, first elected to the British parliament 5 years previously.

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New effective healthcare policies on the breadline?

During these marvelous times for the Liberal Democrats we must capitalize on our success! Having always been the party with creative and effective ideas we must push the new government for the following:

Question: Reforming the NHS with no extra cash?

Answer: Reduce the need for preventable and expensive care in the first place by
making people healthier.

How: Introduce a supermarket-like loyalty card with healthy food discounts.

Cloud Cuckoo Land?

No – effecting change using the stick rarely works, but nudging or incentivizing does. Supermarkets get us to remain with them instead of switching, by offering discounts on their products using loyalty cards. Could the Government take a leaf out of their book, make the population healthier and consequently save money on health care?

How would the scheme work?

Obesity followed by diabetes occurs widely in society at the moment and costs the NHS billions. The poorest in society are particularly susceptible because they either can’t afford healthy food or don’t have the time or incentive to cook healthily. If this group could be targeted with a government loyalty card scheme which offered sufficient discounts on healthy foods to make them affordable, this would kill two birds with one stone: help to alleviate food poverty in low income families and at the same time nudge people towards more healthy eating.

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Stopping the boats but what about the people?

We are, of course, delighted to have a Home Secretary that has humanity and is a decent human being, unlike her predecessors who “shall not be named”.

We are, of course, delighted that the wicked Rwanda Bill is going to be scrapped, and the remaining detainees threatened with being sent to Rwanda released and on bail for now.
However it is all very well to concentrate on Stop the Boats, but what about those who then are stuck in Northern France?

“New border security command” sounds good, securing our borders. But exactly who from?

There are thousands of people (yes people, not statistics or …

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How did the Lib Dems do for gender balance this election?

For the first time, the number of women elected to Parliament has topped 40%. As Lyanne Nicholl, the Chief of 50:50 Parliament wrote on the Huffington Post,

This truly is a historic day – a 50:50 Parliament is now no longer a dot on the horizon, it is beaming into view and – with a fair wind – we can even dare to hope to reach equal representation in the next election.

We are not there yet, 40% is not 50%, but to potentially have a government with more women MPs than ever before and the potential of a gender balanced cabinet; that is exciting and cause for celebration. This is a great day for women’s representation.

Gender balance has not always been a positive story for the Liberal Democrats. It’s only in the last Parliament that we have ever had a majority of women MPs. At the start of the Parliament, we had 4 men and 7 women. By the end, this had risen to 5 men and 10 women. How are we doing now that we have an extra 57 people in our Parliamentary party? After all, the last time we had 57 MPs, our number of women was in single figures.

The answer is not too bad. We have 32 women in the 2024 Parliament, which makes up 44% of the total. This is not too far off Labour, who have 46% women and it’s great Keir Starmer has appointed a record number of women to his Cabinet. I have to admit a small tear in my eye as Angela Rayner walked up Downing Street. Whatever political differences I have with her, I am so happy to see someone with experience of social housing and of being a care worker in charge of housing and employment rights.

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Lib Dem fightback completed! But what next….?

Ten years ago, in 2014, I joined the Liberal Democrats. Shortly after, I witnessed the political collapse of the party. It was a sobering time, and I recall a few weeks later when Tim Farron took over and revitalized the party with the message of a Liberal Democrat fightback. The directive was clear: our party must survive, and we must fight to become a competent force once again. Thus, the Liberal Democrat fightback began.

Unfortunately, these were dark years. Despite our best efforts, we lost several key battles, including Brexit, and suffered significant setbacks in 2017 and 2019. By 2019, I even began to doubt whether our party would ever return to prominence or remain on the fringes forever. However, after ten years of relentless struggle from the sidelines, we are back. Under Ed Davey’s leadership and the hard work of our party members, we have not only secured a record number of seats but also rebuilt our liberal movement. The Liberal Democrat fightback is complete. But what now?

Now is the time to celebrate, to enjoy the moment of this election, and to recognize the success of our party’s machinery, the individuals, the volunteers, the workers, and everyone who is part of the party. However, with success also comes the responsibility to identify areas for improvement. While this victory, marked by our impressive seat numbers, demonstrates that target seating works, it also reveals a concerning issue that must be addressed in the next five years.

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Welcome to my day: 8 July 2024 – have you not been entertained?

Good heavens, wasn’t Thursday night fun? It’s been nearly twenty years since I enjoyed an election night that much, given that even 2010 was bittersweet as a series of seats slipped out of our grasp just when we thought that a massive surge was on.

Watching Conservative MP after Conservative MP lose their seats was reassurance that the British public can’t be fooled all of the time, taking the opportunity to find imaginative ways to defeat a discredited and disgraced administration. And to see so many new faces, many of whom will be new even to our own membership, can only inspire a new generation of activists to push on in next year’s local elections, both to shore up our support in the gained seats, but to create a new set of potential targets for 2029.

Because times are about to get interesting. Labour are going to have to do something similar in those seats that they gained on 4 July, especially those in rural areas such as Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket or Suffolk Coastal in my neighbourhood, where they won despite the almost total absence of a local government base. We know that their activist base is predominantly urban, but does success breed a new activist base for them beyond the old heartlands?

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Simon Foster’s campaign photos

The ever energetic and creative Simon Foster has been putting up amazing displays of stakeboards across the South Central region. He has sent us six of his best. Enjoy:

Local residents give their thanks in Winchester


Newly elected Cllr Richard Murphy (left) who won a district council election with a majority of over 1,000 on the night
with Danny Chambers MP (right)

A shrine to Liberalism which appeared in Eve of poll next to the strongest green display, right in the heart of Winchester.

The Shield Wall at an Eastleigh committee room. The people of Wessex were “invited to rise up in revolt at their evil Tory overlords. It worked!

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Pink News highlights trans and non binary candidates – and makes some notable omissions

While it was great to see Pink News highlight the trans and non binary candidates across various parties who stood on Thursday, it was disappointing that they left some high profile trans and non binary candidates out.

Our Chris Northwood is a councillor in Manchester. She stood in Manchester Central. She has written several articles for us, on issues like the importance of storytelling, the Cass Review and how we could fund a Universal Basic Income. She is also a member of the Party’s Federal Council.

From the Manchester Lib Dems website:

Chris is standing in Manchester Central. Working in Manchester’s tech sector for over a decade, Chris was elected to Manchester City Council as the city’s first openly trans councillor in May 2023, and is the deputy leader of the Manchester Liberal Democrats.

In addition to her council role and local campaigning activity, she also works for a national charity as a software engineer, building websites that provide support to those in need.

Fellow candidate Amanda Clark commended Chris’s help and support on Twitter:

Absolutely and an excellent ALDC mentor…learnt loads from her and was very proud to stand up for trans rights at all my hustings.

The article also missed out prominent non binary Lib Dem candidate Adrian Hyyryylainen Trett. They stood in Old Bexley and Sidcup and are a former Chair of LGBT+ Lib Dems, an international campaigner for LGBT+ rights.

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How I spent Polling Day

During a very long and miserable campaign by both Labour and the Tories, we Liberal Democrats had to resort to some pretty inventive campaign stunts to grab national attention. These efforts  aimed to inject some much-needed positivity into the campaign.

Finally, Election Day arrived, A momentous occasion where the collective voices of millions shape our nation’s future. Where employees (the politicians) meet their managers for their performance review and interviews (the voters). This is my election diary.

Morning:

I was jolted awake by my dad’s cat, whom I am currently looking after.  Begrudgingly, I got out of bed and fed her her second meal of the morning. To unwind, I turned on the news, played some music, and tidied up my dad’s house. The day felt sluggish, and the anticipation of the election results only made time crawl slower. I couldn’t wait for the government to change.

Afternoon:

Feeling restless, I ventured out for a long walk to my local polling station. On my way back, I chatted with various people.  I noticed a concerning trend: many in Stoke-on-Trent Central were planning to vote for Reform UK. Discussions often centred on Farage’s rhetoric about the NHS, immigration, and “woke culture.”

Stoke has a troubling history with far-right politics, having seen the BNP hold council seats and UKIP’s Paul Nuttall come second in the 2016 by-election. Despite its low immigrant population, people feel threatened by immigration.  Stoke’s managed decline since the 1980s of poverty, drug addiction, inadequate housing, and council mismanagement is evident. Unlike Liverpool or Manchester, it hasn’t seen significant regeneration. I remember a local headline from my teenage years promising EU-funded regeneration that never materialised. It worries me that Reform UK’s divisive politics are gaining traction here.

Back home, I recorded a few videos and decided what to wear for the count.

Evening: Voting

I arrived at the polling station, where a clerk reminded me to have my ID ready. I confidently reached into my pocket, only to realise I’d left it at home. Embarrassed, I raced back to fetch it.

10 pm: Exit Poll

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Tom Arms’ World Review

United States

It’s official: The United States judicial system is no longer independent.

And by destroying its independence the Supreme Court has knocked away one of the main pillars of American democracy and left the constitution’s carefully structured and revered system of checks and balances heavily politicised and largely controlled by the executive.

Of course, the US judicial system was already heavily politicised. But the Supreme Court took its role as the top court seriously enough to avoid political judgements. No longer.

America’s legal system is based on English Common Law. Many of the structures were determined by the great 18th-century British jurist William …

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We need to move from the shires and suburbs into the deprived areas of the UK

No matter how successful we have been in the many General Elections that I have been involved in since my first in 1970 there has always been someone who, after the elections, says, ….”but!” So, it might as well be me! In fact, let me correct my own first sentence. For the first time since 1970 I have not been involved in the General Election at all. Convention in Liverpool is that for the year that you are in office the Lord Mayor plays no part in politics so that they can act as the only member of the council able to speak in Purdah periods but also, as with the Speaker, can be neutral throughout the year.

For most of my political life I have been involved in the school of hard politics, which is Liverpool, but it could be any other rough, tough, urban core city or borough. Although I represent a reasonably affluent area now, the fabulous Penny Lane Ward, for much of my time on the council I represented difficult inner-city areas. My lament through the whole of this period has been that the Liberals and then Liberal Democrats have been a party of the suburbs and shires. A quick look at the map of where Lib Dems took seats on Thursday will see that this has not changed at all.

I do understand the need for targeting and believe that this policy was absolutely necessary to ensure that we came back from the political wilderness to enable the Party as a whole to be relevant to the law-making processes of the nation as a whole. But we have now achieved that and my plea to Ed Davey and our other leaders is that now is the time to be bold and push for real representation in our major cities.

Now I know that we are not entirely unrepresented in urban areas at local level. We control Hull and have significant and growing numbers of councillors in places like Sheffield, Newcastle and a growing re-energised presence in my own city of Liverpool. But over the whole of my 50 years in Liverpool we have had to do everything ourselves and fight a poorly funded urban guerilla warfare against Labour’s well-funded mighty machines.

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Didn’t we have a good national campaign!

Few of us dreamed that we could come out of this election campaign with over 70 seats.  The willingness of Liberal Democrats across the country to travel to target seats, the high quality of the local campaign organisation when we got there, determined efforts to raise more money than most local campaigns have ever thought of before, all helped to maximise our gains.  But we must also give full credit to the high quality and sustained consistency of the national campaign.

I expect that many Liberal Democrats – naturally argumentative, with strong opinions of our own – have had their doubts about aspects of our national strategy over the past year or more: a focus on sewage and water pollution rather than Europe or Liberal values, a ruthless approach to target seat selection and to the demands placed upon them, stunts and photo-opportunities that attracted attention but didn’t seem sufficiently serious. 

Well, the results have justified the hard discipline our central organisation imposed.  Concentrated campaigning harvested tactical votes and used our limited funds effectively.  Ed Davey’s standing in the polls rose as Sunak’s fell; he was seen to be the most human and approachable of the three main party leaders.  And as to sewage: the issue of water pollution ‘cut through’, as the phrase goes, to a point where much of the Thames Valley has turned orange.

Liberal Democrats outside London may grasp only with difficulty how much smaller our professional staff is than those who have thronged Conservative and Labour headquarters in their hundreds: extensive media and digital teams, multiple fundraisers, ranks of policy advisers, organisers for national and local campaigns.  Our headquarters has unavoidably remained small, within our limited budget – with its staff probably paid a good deal less than elsewhere, and helped by volunteers.  I think I have had half our media team in my Lords office once or twice – and it’s not a large office!  

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That went pretty well

Anticappointment is a concept coined by Toby Hadoke, a prominent Doctor Who commentator, to describe how Doctor Who fans approach a new series. They worry that they are not going to like it, even though they probably will. As a Liberal Democrat it fits well with how we approach elections.

Over forty years of disappointing election results has made me very cautious about predicting how many MPs we will end up with. I eventually decided to predict 32 MPs, pretty much our main target list. By the time polling day arrived, I knew that even though I was trying to limit my expectations, I’d be devastated if that was all we won.

But it wasn’t. We have 71 MPs. 71. SEVENTY ONE.  By the time I’ve finished writing this, it could be 72. Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire, in essence much of Charles Kennedy’s old seat, is recounting and I hear our folks our chipper.

Here’s Ed Davey exuberantly dad dancing and loads of Lib Dems singing Sweet Caroline. I always loved that song, but this has written it on my heart forever.

It’s a brilliant night for us. The best we have known in the history of our party by some margin.

Since Mary’s last update, we have added Chesham and Amersham to our list of technical gains. Sarah Green won it in a by-election in 2021, and few expected her to hang on to it. But she did. With a majority of around 5,500.  We also held on to our other three by-election gains. Helen Morgan’s vote in North Shropshire practically had to be weighed as she romped to a 15,300 majority. Incredible to think that in 2019 and forever before this was a rock solid Tory seat.  The one people were really worried about was Honiton and Sidmouth, the re-boundaried half of Tiverton and Honiton, won by Richard Foord in June 2o22. But Richard smashed it, beating Tory Simon Jupp by around 7000 votes. As an added bonus, the Tiverton part of the by-election seat was won by our Rachel Gilmour.  Sarah Dyke also held onto Glastonbury and Somerton by 6,500 votes. The icing on that cake was Anna Sabine winning the other half of that by-election seat for us.

We also held on to all the MPs we won in 2017.

There’s always one result that breaks your heart, though. Poor Paul Follows had been widely anticipated to beat Chancellor Jeremy Hunt in Godalming and Ash. He just fell short by 800 votes.

I am thrilled beyond measure to see Vikki Slade finally elected in Mid Dorset and North Poole. After four attempts to win the seat, she made it, with a majority of just under 1400.

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Spare a thought for William Hague…

From the University of Bath website:

On the coalition negotiations in May 2010, William Hague is reported to have told his wife, Ffion: ‘I think I’ve just killed the Liberal Democrats.’

Well, William, it seems we have come back to life.

Some personal reflections on the campaign, if I may:

Firstly, I never thought we’d win Newbury outside of a by-election again after dear David Rendel was our MP from 1993 to 2005. During the campaign it became clear that the Tories had, more or less, given up. Two Tory stakeboards were spotted. They didn’t have a stakeboard campaign – this from the party who used to put up hundreds of posters in fields full of sheep throughout the constituency. The Tory GOTV effort on polling day was virtually non-existent. But well done to Lee Dillon and the whole Newbury Lib Dem team for years and years of hard work to get Lee into the House of Commons! It gives me goose-bumps just to say that.

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And finally .. or maybe not

A roundup of results and those we are waiting for.

North East Fife – Wendy Chamberlain returns to Parliament, with a 13k majority.

Witney – Charlie Maynard is our winner here.

Esher & Walton – Monica Harding takes over from Dominic Raab, and with a 12k majority

Frome & East Somerset – Anna Sabine is our champion here over the Tories

South Devon – (was overlooked earlier, apologies) Caroline Voaden was our hero here.

Mid Dunbartonshire – This was a rare gain from the SNP, and with a 10k majority, thanks to Susan Murray.

Guildford – another previous Lib Dem constituency returning home. This time with Zoe Franklin and her team.

Woking – the blue wall is shattered again, to the tune of an 11k majority, putting Will Forster in the Commons.

Newbury – again one from earlier, and so good to see it back in contention. Lee Dillon is our guy here.

South Cotswolds – well done to Roz Savage.

Surrey Heath – Michael Gove’s old seat, although sadly he didn’t give us the opportunity to defeat him directly.  Al Pinkerton made a decent gain here.

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Thoughts from the ground in Newbury

I’ve been involved in general election campaigns in Newbury since 1987.

I haven’t dared make a forecast about whether we might win the seat this time.

But on the ground, something extraordinary happened. The Tories gave up. They didn’t put any posters up (there were just a couple isolated Tory posters where individuals put up old posters on their property). And on polling day, there was only a very thin Tory knocking up operation in evidence.

Fingers crossed for Lee and team. The Newbury result is due at around 7am.

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We’ve won Wokingham with a majority of over 8k

The outstanding LibDem results are coming so thick and fast it is difficult to keep up. I’m just going “Blimey – we’ve won XXX with a majority of YYY thousands” all the time.

But just hold on, for a moment, to the Wokingham result. We won with a majority of over 8k!!! Well done Clive Jones and team! This is the result of huge effort over many years!

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We appear to have gone to sleep and woken up in Lib Dem heaven

I’ve woken up after a four hour sleep.

The size of our majorities (eg Cheadle – well done Tom and team!) is just extraordinary. And we are appearing to win seats where I didn’t know we had targets.

Chichester for example. We won it with a majority of over 12k. Looking at my target seats list, we overturned a Tory majority of over 19k and only 4 out of the 13 pre-election MRP surveys said we would win it. So it was very low down on our list of expectations.

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Tales from the campaign

Yet more waiting until the key results, from our perspective, start to come in.

So let’s fill in the time with reflections on the campaign. Thanks to Andy Boddington for this photo of farmer and Shropshire Councillor Richard Huffer who finds a different way to draw attention to the campaign for Matthew Green, PPC for South Shropshire.

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Scottish exit poll comes with a large pinch of salt

The Scottish constituency breakdown of the exit poll should be taken with a fairly large pinch of salt. In 2019, it predicted we would lose all of our seats north of the border and we won 4. The MRP models don’t generally do Scotland that well.

This time, it predicts that we are on 5 our current 4 plus Mid Dumbartonshire. That would coincide with our own hopes and, I think, backs up what we have picked up on the ground during the campaign. So, fingers crossed  that is accurate.

Labour are predicted to gain 29 seats, bringing them to 30, and the Tories are supposed to double their seats from 6 to 12. The SNP are predicted to do worse than even the most pessimistic predictions, with just 10 seats, down from 48.

However, it seems unlikely that the Tories will double their seats, least of all themselves who are doing a bit of expectation management on this. Nobody really believes that their current Westminster leader Stephen Flynn will lose his Aberdeen South seat to them, a key target for Labour. Pete Wishart would also lose his Perth seat to the Conservatives.  However, there may be a return for Stephen Gethins, beaten by Wendy Chamberlain in North East Fife in 2019 and now standing in Arbroath.

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Ed Davey: Lib Dems on course for best results in a century

Ed Davey made these comments after the polls closed:

The Liberal Democrats are on course for our best results in a century, thanks to our positive campaign with health and care at its heart.

I am humbled by the millions of people who backed the Liberal Democrats to both kick the Conservatives out of power and deliver the change our country needs.

Every Liberal Democrat MP will be a strong local champion for their community standing up for the NHS and care. Whether you voted for us or not, we will work day in and day out and we will not let you down.

He also pointed out that if the Liberal Democrat make 29 gains, bringing them to 37 seats, this would be the highest number of seats gained by the party at a General Election since 1923.

If the exit poll is accurate then we could smash that.

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It’s almost all over

So how has polling day been for you? I am sure I am not the only person who got sunburnt while telling at a polling station.

Talking of which, did anyone mention dogs at polling stations? I had a conversation with this beautiful Pyrenean Mountain Dog while taking numbers.

We now wait for the exit polls, which have been pretty accurate in previous elections. To keep you entertained I thought I might remind you of what happened to a previous editor of Lib Dem Voice, Stephen Tall, back in 2015.

You may have noticed that the members of the Lib Dem Voice team have been reticent to make predictions about how many seats we will win. That’s because we don’t want to follow in Stephen’s footsteps – quite literally.

He pledged to run naked down Whitehall if the party gained fewer than 20 seats in the General Election in 2015.  Here is a reminder of what happened next…

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