Mo Waqas

Shadows over Damascus: The unravelling of a regime

By Mo Waqas | Tue 10th December 2024 - 1:26 pm

Bashar al-Assad has fled, and HTS fighters, backed by Turkey, have taken control of Damascus. It immediately brought to mind the fall of Kabul to the Taliban only a few years ago—how quickly power shifted with little resistance. Afghanistan fell to the Taliban then, and now it seems Damascus may fall to HTS. Yet, this isn’t just a repeat of history; it’s a far more complex situation.

Let me be clear: Bashar al-Assad was no saint. He was a dreadful leader, willing to commit unspeakable atrocities to cling to power. Yet, I genuinely expected him to fight harder to retain his grip. It’s worth noting that Assad wasn’t originally meant to rule; that role was intended for his brother, who tragically died in a car crash. Bashar was thrust into power by circumstance, and his leadership style has always reflected that—a man eager to please but lacking the foresight for the long game.

The timing of this shift couldn’t be worse for Assad’s allies. Iran, preoccupied with Israel and Lebanon, and Russia, entrenched in Ukraine, are in no position to prop him up. In this vacuum, Turkey has made a bold move. I see this as Erdoğan’s masterstroke—a calculated “Ottoman slap,” so to speak. Make no mistake, this wasn’t an HTS-led victory in isolation. This was orchestrated in Ankara, backed by Istanbul, and serves as a clear message to the Middle East: there’s a new sheriff in town.

However, the fall of Assad comes with significant risks. History shows us what happens when iron-fisted regimes collapse without a clear successor. Iraq post-Saddam and Libya after Gaddafi offer grim lessons. Power vacuums invite chaos, and Syria could easily become a breeding ground for ISIS-like groups to reemerge. HTS doesn’t have the monopoly on violence needed to stabilize the region, leaving Syria vulnerable to prolonged instability. I wouldn’t be surprised if Turkey takes further action, possibly carving out a buffer zone to guard against Kurdish aspirations for autonomy.

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Mark Valladares

8 December 2024 – today’s press releases

By Mark Valladares | Sun 8th December 2024 - 9:30 pm
  • Ambulance delays crisis: Streeting must make a statement to Parliament
  • Syria: Assad must now face justice for his crimes

Ambulance delays crisis: Streeting must make a statement to Parliament

Responding to reports that heart attack patients are being advised to make their own way to hospital while six of England’s ten ambulance trusts are at risk of service failure, Liberal Democrat Health and Social Care spokesperson Helen Morgan said:

The shocking reports on the state of ambulance services are extremely concerning, and show the dire situation in which the Conservative government has left so many of our vital NHS services.

Lack of services and wait

…

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Jonathan Brown

Syrians are free at last

By Jonathan Brown | Sun 8th December 2024 - 12:15 pm

Syria is free. Despite the odds, despite the indifference, despite the efforts of the ‘Global community’ to ‘freeze the conflict’ and bring ‘stability’ to a problem they wished would go away… Syrians have freed themselves. The Assad regime, rotten to the core, competent solely at oppressing Syrians, is finished. 

Across the country, Syrians from all religions, sects and ethnicities have been pulling down statues of their oppressor, but the images that probably matter most are those of people walking or being carried free from the regime’s prison network. Families being reunited with relatives they’d been told had died in captivity years ago. Children born to mothers in prison. An air force pilot imprisoned for refusing to carry out the order to bomb civilians in Hama – in 1982. Prisoners so abused that they cannot remember their own names.

Syrians are already beginning to return to their homes. From refugee camps within Syria and from surrounding countries. This is a time for optimism.

The revolution in Syria – and we can unambiguously call it that now, rather than a ‘conflict’ – has been poorly covered in the international media, with some honourable exceptions. In part I think this is down to how complex Syrian society is, in part due to how quickly and how often things changed in the country and in part because many in the media and politics fell (or worse, jumped knowingly) into the trap of seeing events in Syria as part of a ‘great game’, rather than seeing Syrians as a people with their own agency.

Over the years I’ve written a number of articles for Lib Dem Voice on Syria, in which I tried to do my part, to explain to party members what was happening, what our choices were as a country as to how we should respond. The Lib Dems for Free Syria organised briefings for parliamentarians and tried to feed into our party’s policy-making process. The most important thing we tried to do was to platform Syrians.

It’s with that in mind that I’m writing this today. Firstly, infinite congratulations to Syrians for overthrowing one of the worst monsters the world has seen. Secondly, to ask Liberal Democrats, whatever their concerns about what might come next for Syria, to please use this time to be happy for Syrians. The future is uncertain, but it is now for Syrians to determine.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 8th December 2024 - 10:10 am

France and Germany

Europe is in political turmoil. The governments of the EU’s ideological and economic engines – France and Germany respectively – have collapsed.

Meanwhile Russia is advancing in the East and in the West Trump is retreating with a tariff-infested isolationist America First policy. To complicate matters further, Trump himself is unlikely to keep quiet when he visits France this weekend for the all-star reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.

At the heart of France’s problem is a three-way polarisation of French politics and a long-standing government tendency to pay more than it has. The centre-right guru of compromise, Michel Barnier was appointed Prime Minister, after parliamentary elections in the summer.

He failed to resolve either problem and a vote of no confidence brought about the collapse of his government on Wednesday. New parliamentary elections are the obvious answer. The problem is that under the constitution of the Fifth Republic there must be a gap of 12 months between National Assembly elections.

Which opens the question of whether President Emmanuel Macron himself should resign. So far, he has refused to consider it.

In the background is the fate of far-right National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen who is facing a five-year ban from politics for mis-use of EU funds. This would bar her from running for the presidency unless … Macron resigns. If he does presidential elections must be held within 30 days and Le Pen is rescued from the political wilderness.

Meanwhile, in Germany, Olof Scholz has failed to hold together his traffic-light coalition and called elections for February next year. The projected winners are this stage are the CDU/CSU coalition led by 69-year-old Friedrich Merz. Merz is pretty standard far-right. He is pro-EU, anti-Russian and pro-Ukraine.

The fly in the German electoral ointment is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) which is pro-Russian, anti-EU anti-Ukraine and vehemently anti-immigration. The AfD has been rising rapidly in the political stakes. It is based mainly in the former German Democratic Republic and is unlikely to win a majority, but it could end up the second biggest party in the Bundestag.

The problem is that the AfD is toxic. None of the established parties will form a coalition with it. Which means that the outcome is likely to be another shaky coalition just when Germany needs strong government. Not only is their threat of Russia, but the economy is in the doldrums as a result of its inability to compete with Chinese and American electric vehicles.

Its export problems are soon to be worsened by Trump’s tariffs. This in turn could drag East European economies from relative growth into recession. This in turn could increase its Euro-sceptic, pro-Russian leaders to turn away from the democratic institutions of the EU towards the more autocratic Russians and Chinese.

United States

It’s official – American’s legal system has been politicised and weaponised. Joe Biden’s decision to pardon his son Hunter was the final piece in this unfortunate jigsaw puzzle.

Some claim that America’s rule of law has already been hopelessly compromised. Either by years of corruption, questionable litiginous claims, a bloated legal profession, Donald Trump’s contempt for the law and Democrats’ use of the law to attack Trump.

It is true that New York’s conviction of Trump on business-related felony charges was questionable. Yes, he was guilty. But would he have been charged if he had not been Trump?

The Georgia state prosecution, and the two federal prosecutions – one of disappearing documents and the other for alleged insurrection – are of a much more serious nature. They involve nothing less than treason. With Trump’s election they will simply… disappear.

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NewsHound

Deep fried oreos and hummus – and MPs do karaoke

By NewsHound | Sun 8th December 2024 - 8:28 am

We have it on very good authority that there were some exceptionally sore heads in Lib Dem offices at Westminster and in constituency offices on Friday morning.

Thursday night saw the biggest Lib Dem staff Christmas party in a decade as Party HQ and staff from many of the 72 parliamentary offices gathered in a nightclub called “The Big Chill” in Kings Cross.

Politico has some more details:

Also spotted … eating humus and deep-fried Oreos at the Lib Dems’ Christmas party at Big Chill bar in Kings Cross: Equalities spokesperson Christine Jardine doing Cher’s “Believe” in the karaoke, and dueting on “Don’t You Want Me” with MP Munira Wilson … MPs Sarah Olney and Cameron Thomas doing triple karaoke with head policy adviser Will Cowie … party CEO Mike Dixon … campaigns director Dave McCobb, who was the architect of the Blue Wall wipeout … Chief Whip Wendy Chamberlain … frontbenchers Josh Babarinde, Alison Bennett and Danny Chambers … MPs Calum Miller, Zoe Franklin, Paul Kohler, Cameron Thomas, Anna Sabine and Olly Glover … Director of Communications Paul Haydon … Ed Davey’s press secretary Tim Wild … spinners Gareth Lewis, Will Terras, Ami Wylie, Rob MacDonald, Lily Carlse and Liv Ransome … and long-time former press chief and peer Olly Grender.

Hummus and deep fried oreos? We just hope not together. Our liberal tolerance stretches a long way but this is an odd combination.

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John Jewers

A longer read: Lib Dem MPs are right about “Tractor Tax”

By John Jewers | Sat 7th December 2024 - 11:33 am

 Meet Llewellyn (not his real name). Llewellyn was a farmer I met in my old job and the National Farm Research Unit. The job I used to pay bills when I was representing Woodbridge as an (unpaid) town councillor. I called farmers with surveys and hoped that they would be nice to me (sometimes they were…).  

Llewellyn’s wife picked up. She, like him, was in her 80s, though she could barely speak a word of English. See the people in rural Gwynedd have performed the same job as their ancestors have in the same place since the late stone age. In fact, the farmers of Gwynedd are the people closest related to those that built stone henge – a fact proven by genetic analysis of skeletons. Not sharing my Anglo-Saxon heritage, Llewellyn’s wife was Welsh monolingual. 

Thankfully for my job, Llewellyn was not.  

He told me that he hadn’t been on a holiday for 25 years. The reason being was that Llewellyn annual income was £13,000 a year. Llewellyn’s land (the mountain the other side of Snowdon) was very expensive. Apparently, it could be sold for holiday homes for an enormous profit. The NFU has said that this makes 80-something Lewellyn fair game for Labour’s changes to inheritance tax.  The government disputes this suggestion. Insisting that their own research was in all ways superior to the professionals and peer-reviewed organisations that state the contrary.  

The situation is muddied by the Institute for Fiscal studies admitting two factors which spells potential doom for our agri-sector: 

  1. ‘Nevertheless, in some cases will simply yield too little income (and the inheritor will have too few other resources) to pay the tax. The owners might choose, or be forced, to sell part or all of the farm.’ 
  1. ‘The exact number that will be affected is uncertain but government figures imply it will be significantly less than 500 estates per year…’ 

Labour insists that marking their own homework is a worth-while enterprise. I (and most farmers) disagree.  

In a post-Brexit, post-truth world it is clear that facts and expert opinion no longer carry the weight in public discourse that they once did. In much the same way that the last government crusaded against doctors and health-care workers, this government has chosen farmers.

No less defensible (and arguably crueller) the “Bus Tax”  will remove mobility and agency for thousands of rural working people.  

It seems that many commenters on social media were to be believed believe that farming is enormously profitable. Most farmers hold a title, a castle and probably a butler. We’re all multi-millionaires, don’t you know? 

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Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Middle East Whack-a-Mole

By Tom Arms | Sat 7th December 2024 - 9:35 am

The Middle East is very much like the fairground game whack-a-mole. You think you have solved your problems by knocking a mole on the head and another one of the pesky beasts pops up on the other side of the board.

Just as Israel and Washington thought they had Hezbollah and Iran on the back foot, an Islamic fundamentalist group has popped up to threaten Syria’s Assad regime.  And, of course, the Gazan mole still has its head above the parapets – just.

The temptation is to raise a cheer for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Abu Muhammad Al-Jolani. They are, after all, now the main threat to the regime of Basahar-al Assad, one of the regime’s most brutal anti-Western dictators. They also pose the biggest danger to Russian and Iranian influence in the region.

But HTS are an internationally proscribed terrorist organisation with a reputation for brutal repression. They also want to create an Islamic state within Syria. The last thing the Middle East needs is another religiously-based government which derives its legitimacy from its relationship with an infallible Higher Being.

So, who is HTS and its leader? Why have they suddenly leapt into the world’s headlines? And, finally, what are their chances of toppling the Assad regime?

Al-Jolani himself is a shadowy figure. Even his birth date is unknown, although he is believed to be in his mid-forties and hails from Damascus where his parents still live. When the Syrian Civil War started with the 2011 Arab Spring, Al Jolani was associated with the Jihadist group Al Nusra which was the main Islamic opposition group opposing Assad in Aleppo and Syria’s northern Idlib region.

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Matthew Ma

ALDC By-Election Report, 5th December

By Matthew Ma | Fri 6th December 2024 - 6:25 pm

Six principal council by-elections were held across the UK this week with Labour losing two of their three seats, one to the SNP and one to the Conservative, successfully defending only one. The Tories additionally gained a seat from an independent, while the Liberal Democrats held comfortably held their seat.

In South Oxfordshire DC, Cllr Crispin Topping won the seat in the Cholsey ward, increasing the already impressive vote share further to 62.2% this time around! Congratulations to Crispin and the team in South Oxfordshire on the stellar win.

South Oxfordshire DC, Cholsey
Liberal Democrat (Crispin Topping): 949 (62.2%, +16.1%)
Conservative: 362 (23.7%, +0.9%)
Social Democratic Party: 116 (7.6%, +2.3%)
Labour: 71 (4.7%, new)
Independent: 28 (1.8%, new)

Staying in the South, Chris Johnson stood in the Shinfield ward in Wokingham BC, where the Labour vote plummeted, losing ground to all three parties and in turn handing the Conservatives a win. Thank you Chris and the team for growing our vote and nearly beating Labour to second in the ward.

Wokingham BC, Shinfield
Conservative: 765 (49.0%, +10.4%)
Labour: 387 (24.8%, -18.9%)
Liberal Democrat (Chris Johnson): 336 (21.5%, +3.8%)
Green Party: 73 (4.7%, new)

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Mary Reid

Spring Conference registration is now open

By Mary Reid | Fri 6th December 2024 - 3:54 pm

Federal Spring Conference will be held next year from 21st to 23rd March in beautiful Harrogate. and Early Bird registration is now open. The Conference Hotel will be the Crowne Plaza which is very close to the Harrogate Convention Centre where we will be meeting. Full information here.

You can see all the registration options here, but the key points are that the Early Bird registration rate is £85 now, rising to £125 on 10th January. Of course, there are concessions: full-time students and recipients of various benefits pay £15 rising to £30 on 10th January

In addition, first time attendees pay only £35, under 18s pay £5, and those who wish to participate (and vote) online pay £15.

Here are the deadlines for submitting motions and amendments:

  • Drafting advice: 1pm on 18th December 2024
  • Motions: 1pm on 15th January 2025
  • Amendments and Emergency motions drafting advice: 1pm on 24th February 2025
  • Amendments and Emergency motions: 1pm on 10th March 2025
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Michael Meadowcroft

Obituary: Barbara Lindsay

By Michael Meadowcroft | Fri 6th December 2024 - 1:46 pm

A longstanding and committed Liberal for sixty-five years, Barbara Lindsay died on 21 November aged 83. She was someone I greatly admired and whose company I enjoyed. Once she had decided intellectually and by personality at the age of 18 that she was a Liberal that was it for Barbara and she became a consistent campaigner and feminist activist. Life was not easy for Barbara and the cost of politics bore heavily on her, particularly when her car needed repairing – seemingly all too often!

She was also passionate to be a writer and regularly wrote articles and comments which she then struggled with great determination to sell to relevant journals – as is the case with all of us freelances! She also wrote many pieces for numerous Liberal publications.

Barbara moved from Chester to Cheadle in 1988 and became much involved with the Cheadle Liberal Democrats, particularly with the late Patsy Calton and the general election campaigns of 2001 and 2005. She was diagnosed with cancer in 2018 but carried working in local campaigns, later doing more clerical work.

Her funeral will be at the Cypress Chapel, Stockport Crematorium, on Friday, 13 December at 12.45pm. Barbara’s daughter, Antonia Swann, is happy to be contacted on 07906 157898 or via [email protected]

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David McDowall

Amnesty International’s report on Israel genocide

By David McDowall | Thu 5th December 2024 - 7:32 pm

Amnesty International’s 293 page report, ‘You feel like you are subhuman’ (5 December) stands as the first devastating indictment of Israel’s genocide of the people of Gaza since last January, when the International Court of Justice deemed genocide ‘plausible’ and applied legally binding orders concerning Israel’s conduct (which were ignored). Page by agonising page, Amnesty chronicles the disproportionate actions and language of Israeli leaders, soldiers and others that, in its view, clearly demonstrate intent to destroy Gaza and its people.

Two years ago, Amnesty published its report, ‘Israel’s Apartheid Against Palestinians’, another forensically detailed analysis of Israel as occupying power. Between the two reports stand first, the ICJ’s preliminary hearing of South Africa’s charge of genocide against Israel (referred to above), and secondly, its Advisory Opinion on ‘The Legal Consequences arising from the Policies and Practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem’, of 19 July 2024.

It is in the light of Amnesty’s report that the words parroted by senior politicians of the three principal political parties that ‘Israel has a right to defend itself’ sound so hollow, particularly since it is difficult to think of a single occasion when any senior British politician (pace Corbyn) over the past 57 years of illegal and repressive occupation, has stated that the Palestinians have a right to defend themselves. We should admit our shame and that our conceit that ‘Brits love the underdog’ is a sham. For 57 years the UK (like almost everyone else) has ducked its legal obligation under Common Article 1 of the 1949 Geneva Conventions ‘to respect and ensure respect for the present Convention in all circumstances’, meaning when you see another Party to the Convention violating it, you have a clear obligation to do what you can to bring it back into compliance.

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Lord William Wallace

Local Democracy, or Devolved Administration?

By Lord William Wallace | Thu 5th December 2024 - 4:50 pm

Within the next few weeks the Labour government will publish its promised white paper on Devolution.  Reports so far suggest it will extend combined authorities with directly-elected mayors across the rest of England, abolish the remaining district councils and move to unitary councils covering parts of combined authorities – in practice a new two-tier system in which the relationship between combined-authority mayors and unitary councils will remain to be settled.  There’s unlikely to be any significant change in financial control from the centre or tax reform.  A move towards three-year settlements for central funding of local and combined authorities is more likely.

I’m not an expert on local government; nor do I know whether our party yet has an agreed position on how to respond.  I accept that the mayoral model in London works well – with a London Assembly to hold the mayor to account, and London borough councils to provide local services and representation.   The mayoral model is suitable for conurbations – though it needs (as in London) to be balanced by a representative assembly, with multiple local councils constituting it.  But I’m doubtful whether a similar model suits the rest of England.

In Yorkshire the consensus among MPs and council leaders was strongly for a regional body and local councils, if necessary also with elected mayors for the conurbations of West and South Yorkshire.  Instead the last government imposed upon us combined authorities both in North and East Yorkshire, with only two elected councils in each.  The imposition of a unitary authority across North Yorkshire has replaced district councils that covered distinct communities – Harrogate, Craven, Scarborough and Whitby, Richmondshire, and Selby – with a geographically vast area with a much smaller number of councillors.  York, however, was left outside, so an elected mayor and combined authority has therefore been imposed on two very different local authorities.  The combined authority and mayor for East Yorkshire will similarly sit over only two existing local authorities.

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Vince Cable

A longer read: Green policies under fire

By Vince Cable | Thu 5th December 2024 - 11:19 am

The politics of climate change has got a whole lot uglier.  ‘Saving the planet’ may make for good speeches to the party faithful but the political costs are now becoming more apparent.

The planned job losses in the car industry, including the closure of the Vauxhall (Stellantis) plant at Luton, have made the vision of ‘green jobs’ more difficult to sell. The industrial strategy I oversaw in the Coalition involved expansion of the car industry and a highlight was going to the USA to head off closures of Vauxhall’s plants and get a commitment to UK expansion. Now the industry has concluded that the mandatory target for sales of EVs (22% this year rising to 100% by 2030) is just too difficult. My successor as Business Secretary is having to revisit the policy.

Public warnings by experts of a short-term increase energy prices as we transition to renewable power has also sent nervous tremors through government ministers. Reform UK has smelt blood and sees political prey in the form of ‘net zero’. The Tories are keeping step with their rivals on the populist right. Long gone are the days when Margaret Thatcher led international opinion on the need to tackle climate change and her successors (up to and including Boris Johnson) could be relied upon to support a political consensus including mandating ‘net zero’ targets by legislation. Opposition politicians have sensed that the British public enthusiastically supports the fight against climate change but only if it doesn’t have to pay.

The budget was another warning sign of political nervousness. An obvious revenue raiser, and ‘green’ policy, was to raise petrol and diesel duties which have been frozen for over a decade by governments reluctant to upset motorists and lorry drivers. Nothing happened. With bus subsidies cut, and rail fares set to rise, there is yet another incentive to resist environmentally friendly change in transport.

A much bigger and more painful decision looms. Britain has an opportunity to make EV motoring much more accessible by importing large numbers of low-cost Chinese cars. China has, quite suddenly, become the world’s leading nation for car production and is poised to flood world markets with relatively cheap but high quality EVs. The EU has panicked over the threat to European producers and has thrown up tariff barriers. The USA already blocks Chinese imports. But Britain has an open market. Car industry jobs versus the greening of transport is precisely the kind of dilemma that politicians hate but will soon face.

In practice, the trade-offs can be made less painful by persuading the Chinese car companies like BYD to set up shop in the UK and produce locally. This was the strategy employed four decades ago with the Japanese companies which were then coming to dominate the industry: hence Nissan in Sunderland.

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Pippa Heylings MP

Pippa Heylings MP writes… We can, and we will, make Roz Savage’s Climate and Nature Bill a reality

By Pippa Heylings MP | Wed 4th December 2024 - 4:55 pm

Last month, I had the privilege of attending COP29 in Baku and COP16 in Cali, where I took part in global negotiations on climate and nature. It’s clear to see that the global response to climate change is, at best, underwhelming. Climate change is the greatest threat we face—not only to world economies—but also to nature, which is our greatest ally in limiting its impact. And yet, we are still not acting swiftly enough to reduce carbon emissions.

For many, especially younger people, the process of COPs and their lack of concrete action gives a sense of anxiety. As it’s their futures that face the greatest risk, it’s more than understandable. Yet, I am, and continue to be, filled with hope. 

When I look back to when the UK passed the monumental Climate Change Act in 2008, I feel proud of the example it set all around the world. A lot has changed since 2008, and the impacts of our changing climate are no longer a distant story that we see on the news. They’re at home, in the UK, and are already having devastating impacts on our livelihoods—from more frequent and intense heat waves, storms, floods, droughts, coastal erosion, food supply disruption and expensive energy bills.

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Merlene Emerson

Remembering Robert Woodthorpe-Browne MBE – notes from Liberal International Congress

By Merlene Emerson | Wed 4th December 2024 - 3:00 pm

Anyone who has been active within the liberal family in the UK, Europe or internationally would know of and remember Robert Woodthorpe-Browne MBE

As I write this blog from the 64th Congress of Liberal International in Santiago, Chile, I cannot help but think of him.  Were he still with us today, he would most certainly be at Congress, networking in Spanish like a local (just as he was as fluent in French and German), knowledgeable, affable and quintessentially internationalist.

The theme of this Congress was the Future of Freedom, apposite for this time in history, as we encounter the rise of populism in Europe and America, and escalating conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.  Indeed, this theme was explored in a round table discussion expertly led by Lord John Alderdice, on the Future of Liberalism.  I would like to share a few nuggets that I took away from the discussions.

Informed by history and philosophical thinkers such as Isaiah Berlin, John called on Liberals to seek a more thoughtful way forward.  What do we mean by freedom and liberty, he asked?  It could be negatively defined as freedom from oppression, or positively, as the freedom of choice, the ability to do what one chooses without fear or retribution.

John mentioned 3 important points:
1. We may be individuals, but we also exist through relationships, and we must consider the individual’s place in their community.
2. We assume that people have rational cognitive faculties, but we are also emotional beings who more often think emotionally.
3. Science itself is developing, complex systems engage with each other, opening up new possibilities.

Following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, there was an initial euphoria that liberal democracy had prevailed.   We have however since realised that that was not to be.  Instead, we have found ourselves in a world that is far more complex.  There was a need to recognize “plurality of values” and liberalism has to be relevant to the lives of ordinary people. 

As liberals our responsibility is to stay true to our roots, whilst at the same time, to be open to new ideas and tolerant of those with views which are different from ours.  John made reference to Ed Shapiro’s book “Finding a Place to Stand” (2020), encouraging self-reflection and asking the question even of those whom we disagree with (e.g. Trump): “What are they right about?”

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Manuela Perteghella MP

Manuela Perteghella MP writes: Cody’s Law – protecting young lives

By Manuela Perteghella MP | Wed 4th December 2024 - 11:55 am

As I stood up in Parliament to ask my first-ever question at Prime Minister’s Questions, I couldn’t stop thinking about Cody Fisher and his family. Cody was just 23 years old when he was stabbed to death on the dance floor of The Crane nightclub in Birmingham on Boxing Day 2022. What should have been a fun night out with friends ended in tragedy because of failings that could—and should—have been avoided.

Cody’s death has left an unimaginable hole in the lives of those who loved him. A talented young footballer, he had his whole future ahead of him. But a deadly weapon—a zombie knife—was smuggled into the venue, bypassing what the court later described as “cursory” security checks, despite over 2,000 people being there that night. It’s hard to comprehend how such a basic safety measure was overlooked, and it’s even harder to accept that no action has yet been taken to prevent something like this from happening again.

Since Cody’s murder, his family, and in particular his mum, Tracey Fisher, has been incredibly brave in her fight to make sure no other family goes through what hers has endured. Tracey is calling for “Cody’s Law,” which would make it mandatory for nightclubs and similar venues to install metal detectors and have bleed kits on site. These are simple, common-sense measures that could save lives.

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Caron Lindsay

Lib Dem PR Bill wins surprise Commons vote

By Caron Lindsay | Wed 4th December 2024 - 9:01 am

The margin of two votes has been significant several times in Lib Dem history – winning Winchester in May 1997, heartbreakingly not taking back North East Fife by two votes in 2017. Yesterday, we won a surprise vote in Parliament on the first stage of a Ten Minute Rule Bill on changing the electoral system for Westminster and English local government elections to Proportional Representation which was introduced by our Sarah Olney. Normally what happens with these Bills is that MPs hear the speech. The MP proposing the measure then does a carefully choreographed approach to the Speaker and hands it over to be buried with loads of other Bills on some sitting Friday months in the future. But the Tories forced a vote to try to kill it without, it seems, doing their sums first.

Interestingly more Labour MPs voted for it than voted against.

This Bill doesn’t have a hope in hell of becoming law as Keir Starmer has said repeatedly that Labour opposes PR, despite the wishes of many of its members. However, between now and its second reading on 24th January, we can talk up the benefits of PR. For me, it’s about giving people the Parliament they ask for.

From the Guardian:

As well as 62 Lib Dem MPs, 59 Labour backbenchers voted for Tuesday’s bill, including a number of those first elected in 2024. Last month it emerged that dozens of Labour MPs from the 2024 intake had signed up to a parliamentary group calling for the UK to move to a PR system.

Labour’s 2022 annual conference voted overwhelmingly for the party to back a proportional system, after trade unions that had blocked previous motions swung behind the idea. However, while Keir Starmer has previously expressed at least some support for electoral reform, his leadership team has ruled out any immediate change, at least in the first term of a Labour government.

In Tuesday’s vote, 50 Labour MPs opposed the motion, indicating the continued lack of agreement on the issue. None of the government frontbench took part in the vote. All of the Conservatives who voted, 78 of them, opposed the idea, including some frontbenchers.

After the vote, Sarah Olney said:

This is a historic day in the fight for fairer votes and I am grateful to all the MPs who backed it.

Trust in our political system is broken following years of the Conservative Party riding roughshod over standards in public life.

Fixing our broken electoral system, introducing fair votes, and making sure everyones’ voice matters is the best way to rebuild this trust.

Today, as we have done for a century, Liberal Democrats are leading the fight for fair votes and making sure that no one can be ignored in our democracy.

The government must now listen to the will of the House, make time for the legislation and make fairer a votes a reality and we will be holding their feet to the fire to make this happen.

Her speech in favour of her bill is below:

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Ben Wood

Opportunism is addictive for political parties. Liberals must resist

By Ben Wood | Tue 3rd December 2024 - 3:07 pm

Since our stunning victories back in July, something has been gnawing away at me: Who are we in the LibDems for? Talk to any LibDem activist and you will likely hear the following:  Liberalism is about the ordinary citizen against concentrations of power, stultifying social conformity and unjustified privilege. The same activists will often say that Liberalism champions equality of opportunity, human diversity, material justice and civil participation. But throughout 2024, the messaging around Liberal Democrat identity has been troublingly murky. Back in the summer, Ed Davey gave voice to a vision of centre-left liberalism in his New Statesman …

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Mark Valladares

Welcome to my day: 2 December 2024 – is Elon Musk coming for us all?

By Mark Valladares | Mon 2nd December 2024 - 7:30 am

If, like me, you’ve been an observer of American politics over the decades, one thing that is glaringly obvious is the amount of money that washes through the system, paying for advertising, cadres of professional staff and all of the paraphernalia that make electoral politics increasingly a game for the wealthy or those with access to the wealthy. One candidate in a Senate or Gubernatorial race can, if they’re unlucky, spend as much as the British political parties combined in a General Election campaign.

We already have cause for concern over the influence of a small number of multi-millionaires on our politics. The Conservative Party has become increasingly dependent on a small number of people to finance its campaigns, leading to suggestions of Russian influence and interference. And, of course, there have been plenty of accusations made regarding Nigel Farage’s links with senior Russian officials. But the cost of campaigns has increased, and with party memberships in historic decline, relying on membership fees is a one way journey to financial, and thus political, oblivion.

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Mark Valladares

30 November – 1 December – the weekend’s press releases

By Mark Valladares | Sun 1st December 2024 - 10:30 pm
  • Pat McFadden: government’s targets will be meaningless unless they reverse disastrous mistakes
  • Scot Lib Dems reveal 27,954 empty homes across Scotland
  • Key mental health targets breached for 168,000 people

Pat McFadden: government’s targets will be meaningless unless they reverse disastrous mistakes

Responding to Pat McFadden on the Laura Kuenssberg show on the government’s plan for change, Liberal Democrat Cabinet Office spokesperson Sarah Olney MP said:

The government’s targets will be utterly meaningless unless they reverse the disastrous mistakes made so far.

Scrapping the Winter Fuel Payment will force vulnerable pensioners to choose between heating and eating and their family farm tax risks a lost generation of farmers.

Ministers must swallow their pride, recognise the damage that these proposals will do and scrap the family farm tax and reinstate Winter Fuel Payments.

Scot Lib Dems reveal 27,954 empty homes across Scotland

Scottish Liberal Democrat housing spokesperson Paul McGarry has today accused the SNP of a “massive failure” to tackle the housing crisis after new research by his party uncovered that almost 28,000 homes are lying empty across Scotland.

A freedom of information request submitted by Scottish Liberal Democrats asked all 32 of Scotland’s local councils how many homes were classed as long-term vacant, meaning they have been empty for longer than 6 months.

The request found that:

  • Across the 30 councils with data on how many homes are long-term vacant, there are 27,954 long-term vacant properties.
  • There are 3,093 long-term vacant homes in Edinburgh, 2,929 in Aberdeenshire, 2,801 in Glasgow and 2,584 in Argyll & Bute.
  • Of the councils with data for how long they had been vacant, 1,420 had been vacant for longer than a year, while 2,609 had been vacant for more than 5 years and 5,937 more than 10 years.
  • In 2023/24, only 579 properties were brought back into use in Glasgow- just 20% of the number of long-term vacant homes.
  • In 2023/24, just 71 properties were brought back into use in Dumfries & Galloway, despite the number of long-term vacant properties being 1,211.
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The Voice

Obituary for former Essex Lib Dem Councillor Derek Hardy

By The Voice | Sun 1st December 2024 - 6:53 pm

Former Essex Lib Dem Councillor Derek Hardy died earlier this year. His daughter Janet Hardy-Gould wrote an obituary for the Guardian which appeared online in October but has only recently been published in the paper itself.

Of his political work, Janet writes:

Having joined Ilford Young Liberals in 1945, Derek retained an interest in politics, and first stood for the London county council as a Liberal candidate in the early 1960s. Moving out of the capital in 1967 to Kelvedon Hatch, near Brentwood, Essex, he stood as a Liberal then a Liberal Democrat candidate in many local elections.

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The Voice

Lib Dems mark World AIDS Day

By The Voice | Sun 1st December 2024 - 3:47 pm

Today, 1st December, is World AIDS Day. Senior Liberal Democrats have been marking the occasion.

The party itself posted on social media:

Today we remember those who’ve lost their lives, and commit to ending deaths by AIDS.

We must:
☑️ Ensure everyone has access to HIV prevention and treatment.
☑️:End stigma and discrimination around HIV.
☑️:Make testing the norm.

Christine Jardine MP, our Women and Equalities Spokesperson said:

Today we remember everyone we have tragically lost to AIDS. For the UK to reach zero new HIV diagnoses by 2030, it is vital that we expand testing, provide compassionate support to those living with HIV/AIDS, and end the stigma surrounding the disease.

 

LGBT+ Lib Dems said:

World AIDS Day is a moment to remember those we’ve lost, stand in solidarity with everyone affected by HIV, and renew our commitment to ending AIDS-related deaths and eliminating HIV transmission by 2030.

The Lib Dems have consistently championed evidence-based solutions to tackle HIV, AIDS, and improve access to Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP). We continue to push for increased funding, free access to PrEP, and wider HIV testing, including opt-out testing in A&E settings.

We held the Conservative govt accountable for its failures in HIV policy, pushed for better investment in sexual health, and noted rising diagnoses among young people. We will continue to demand action and hold the new govt to account and work together to meet our shared goal.

We thank our vocal campaigners and champions like Baroness Liz Barker who plays a proactive role on the All Party Parliamentary Group for HIV and AIDS
and has long advocated and pushed for opt-out HIV testing in A&E settings, helping thousands know their status and receive advice and support.

On Wednesday last week, Helen Morgan represented the party in the House of Commons debate for World AIDS Day:

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 1st December 2024 - 9:21 am

Israel

Israel has won the war with Hezbollah. That is if the ceasefire recently announced takes effect as planned.

If Hezbollah has lost then so have backers Iran and the Palestinians in Gaza and on the West Bank. Hezbollah was the keystone in Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” It effectively turned Lebanon into a buffer state between Israel and Iran.

As for the Palestinians, the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah ordered the rocket attacks on northern Israel with the promise that they would continue until there was a ceasefire in Gaza.

The ceasefire agreement makes no mention of Gaza. Israeli forces continue to fight there. Benjamin Netanyahu has severed the link between Hezbollah and Gaza and between Iran and Gaza. This has in turn given him a free hand in dealing with the Palestinians both in Gaza and the West Bank.

He is further aided by the re-election of Donald Trump. The president-elect has been vague about his Middle East policy. He is known for his unpredictability. But the appointment of Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel provides some hints. Huckabee is opposed to the two-state solution and has hinted that he supports Israeli annexation of the West Bank and northern Gaza.

Surprisingly, opinion polls indicate that only about half of the Israeli population support the ceasefire agreement. Why is unclear.

The agreement says that Israeli and Hezbollah forces must withdraw from territory between the Israeli-Lebanese border and the Litani River which is roughly 30 miles north of Israel. Hezbollah would completely disarm. The buffer zone would be occupied by 10,000 UN troops and 10,000 troops from the official Lebanese army with financial backing from the US and France.

Israel cannot launch offensive operations against Lebanon, but it has the full backing of the US to launch “defensive” operations. “If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself,” said Netanyahu, “we will attack. If it tries to rebuild the terrorist infrastructure near the border we will attack. If it tries to launch a rocket. If it digs a tunnel. If it brings in a truck carrying a rocket, we will attack.”

Israel has clearly abandoned the search for a political resolution and put all of its hopes and dreams into the military option.

United States

The threatened 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada will hit them hard. Eighty percent of Canada’s exports are to the US. The same figure applies to Mexico.

But they will also damage the American economy. America needs Mexico’s $19 billion of machinery, electrical equipment and fruit and vegetables. About half of US fruit imports come from Mexico. And if you fancy avocados, 90 percent of America’s avocados are grown in Mexico.

Transferring that production to the U.S. would be difficult, especially since about half of the 2 million agricultural workers in the U.S. are undocumented Mexicans. At the moment they are protected by a visa system that gives legal status to agricultural workers. But Trump has vowed to end that which would seriously impact the $1.5 trillion American fruit and vegetable industry.

Undocumented workers also make up 60 percent of the work force of the construction companies in the southwest. One construction official complained that deporting them “would devastate our industry, we wouldn’t finish our highways, we wouldn’t finish our schools. New housing would simply disappear.”

Canada exports a wide range of products to the U.S., including up to 30 percent of the oil consumed by America. Refineries in the mid-west and Pacific Northwest are especially reliant on oil pipelines from Canada. GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, reckons that a 25% tax on Canadian crude oil would increase gas prices in the Midwest and the Rockies by 25 cents to 75 cents a gallon,

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Caron Lindsay

Love is Enough surges into iTunes top 10

By Caron Lindsay | Sat 30th November 2024 - 3:11 pm

So the first chart announcement since Love is Enough,  the song by young carers featuring Ed Davey was released is out.  It would melt even the most permafrosted heart.

And they’re at……

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Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Fentanyl

By Tom Arms | Sat 30th November 2024 - 10:08 am

Fentanyl is a nasty synthetic opioid. It is 100 times more potent than heroin and 50 times more potent than morphine. It is, not surprisingly, also many times more addictive.

In 2023 an estimated 75,000 Americans died of fentanyl overdoses. As little as two milligrams of fentanyl—roughly equivalent to a few grains of salt—can kill you. A large number of the 2.5 million US opioid addicts are fentanyl users.

Because it is highly addictive, Fentanyl is replacing—some say has replaced—cocaine and heroin as the product of choice of the drug cartels. Heroin exports are also being laced with a grain or two of fentanyl to increase the user’s dependence on the drugs.

All of the above goes some of the way to explaining why President-elect Donald Trump has linked the totally separate issues of immigration and fentanyl exports and threatened to slap a 25 percent tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada and a 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports unless they close down the fentanyl-producing laboratories and the smuggling operations. Of course, life is never that simple.

Let’s start with Mexico. The Mexican drug cartels are the major culprits. In the first nine months of this year, US Customs seized 16,000 pounds of fentanyl at America’s southern border. That is 7.24 billion lethal doses.

The illicit trade is dominated by the Sinalo and Jalisco New Generation cartels. They have taken the billions they have earned from drugs to invest in mining, agriculture and, of course, political respectability. They have become an integral part of the Mexican business and political establishment with legal and illegal operations in 40 countries. They will be difficult to root out. To complicate matters they operate a franchise system so that each production and smuggling operation functions separately from the centre.

The Chinese were targeted by the Biden Administration, and since 2019 illegal exports of fentanyl to the US and to Mexico for transhipment to the US have dropped dramatically. But the chemical components that comprise the synthetic drug are still being shipped to Mexican Laboratories for assembly. As each of the components is completely legal it is difficult to prevent their production and export.

It is a bit of a mystery as to why Trump has included Canada on his list. In the first nine months of 2024 US Customs sized just 40 pounds of fentanyl heading south from America’s northern neighbour. It is also an enigma as to why Trump included Canada in his target list for illegal aliens. In 2023, US border control stopped 12,200 illegal aliens from crossing the US-Canada border. This compares to 2.48 million from Mexico. It is more likely that Trump is trying to undermine liberal icon Justin Trudeau before next year’s federal elections.

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Mark Valladares

29 November 2024 – today’s press releases

By Mark Valladares | Fri 29th November 2024 - 10:30 pm
  • Bank of England: Ministers need to set out steps to Trump-proof economy
  • McArthur urges MPs to back assisted dying bill
  • McArthur expresses delight as UK Parliament backs Assisted Dying bill

Bank of England: Ministers need to set out steps to Trump-proof economy

Responding to the Bank of England’s fiscal stability report which warned of the potential impact of the impending Donald Trump Presidency on the economy, Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Daisy Cooper MP said:

After years of Conservative economic vandalism our economy has seen sluggish growth and people have been hammered by spiralling mortgage rates.

The incoming Trump administration could cause yet more damage and the new government needs to urgently act to prepare our economy to prevent this.

Ministers need to set out the steps they are taking to Trump-proof our economy and ensure that people will not be hit with another round of financial hardship.

McArthur urges MPs to back assisted dying bill

Speaking ahead of the debate and vote on Kim Leadbeater’s assisted dying bill in the UK Parliament, Scottish Liberal Democrat MSP Liam McArthur has urged MPs to back the bill in the first debate and vote on end-of-life choices in the UK Parliament since 2015.

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Matthew Ma

ALDC’s by-election report – 28 November 2024

By Matthew Ma | Fri 29th November 2024 - 7:51 pm

It was a long list of holds for this week’s by-elections as only 1 out of 10 seats switched hands, where Lib Dems snatched a seat out of Labour in Sheffield City Council. Labour defended their other 7 seats, albeit losing a hefty amount of votes in almost all seats; the Lib Dems also defended the 2 remaining seats.

For the only gain this week, the young Cllr Willis Marshall brought the Lib Dems from fourth place to first in the Woodhouse ward in Sheffield City Council. Coming from the single digits, Willis and the Sheffield team more than quadrupled the Lib Dem vote share to 33% this time around and won the seat! Congratulations to the Willis and the team for the hard work put in to achieve this momentous result.

Sheffield City Council, Woodhouse
Liberal Democrat (Willis Marshall): 1018 (33.0%, +26.8%)
Reform: 1008 (32.7%, new)
Labour: 650 (21.1%, -36.8%)
Conservative: 168 (5.0%, -9.5%)
Green Party: 153 (5.4%, -4.5%)
TUSC: 56 (1.8%, -1.0%)
The Social Democratic Party: 33 (1.1% , new)

In the nearby City of York Council, the Lib Dems comfortably defended its seat with 64% of the vote, towering the second place Conservatives. In the Haxby & Wigginton ward, Cllr Richard Watson and the team grew the vote from just over one-half to almost two thirds of the voting base. Congrats and thank you to Richard and the local team for the tremendous win!

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Mary Reid

Wendy Chamberlain wins an MP of the Year award

By Mary Reid | Fri 29th November 2024 - 4:25 pm

Congratulations to Wendy Chamberlain who has won one of the MP of the Year awards from the Patchwork Foundation.

The Patchwork Foundation describes itself thus:

We promote, encourage and support the active participation of young people from disadvantaged and minority communities in British democracy and civil society.

Here is a useful video from 2020 which explains what the awards are all about.

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Joe Otten

Stunning victory in Sheffield

By Joe Otten | Fri 29th November 2024 - 1:56 pm

Christmas came early for Sheffield Liberal Democrats yesterday with Willis Marshall’s win in Woodhouse – site of much of the battle of Orgreave – by 10 votes ahead of Reform, gaining the seat notionally from Labour.

The vacancy was brought about by the sad death of Councillor Paul Wood of Sheffield Community Councillors, the group that split from Labour after defying the whip on a vote on the local plan, but was largely made up of the previous Labour leadership, ousted by a Campaign Improvement Board against the wishes of local Labour members.

Willis and the team put in a tremendous campaign, backed by our position as the main alternative to Labour on Sheffield Council (27 seats to their 36, no Reform) but it is clear that Reform also had a compelling offer to the voters. My sense of the campaign is that there was a substantial ex Labour now anti Labour vote up for grabs. Our campaign on the winter fuel allowance was very popular. Woodhouse has sent a message to Keir Starmer. But clearly many voters felt a Reform vote was the way to send that message.

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Mary Reid

Is Love is Enough enough?

By Mary Reid | Fri 29th November 2024 - 9:32 am

As Caron reported on Wednesday, Ed Davey is performing on a Christmas single by Bath Philharmonia and its Young Carers’ Choir.

We can now reveal it in all its glory.

We held it back because downloads only count from today.

The BBC has some words to say about it:

As far as we can tell, Sir Ed is the first leader of a major political party to release a Christmas single (although in 2017 Lord Buckethead put out his festive song, A Bucketful of Happiness).

…

Those hoping to hear Sir Ed on lead vocals in the new single may be disappointed.

In Love is Enough, Sir Ed perhaps wisely leaves the bulk of the singing to the members of the Bath Philharmonia’s Young Carers’ Choir.

He joins in at the bridge around three quarters of the way through the song and during the chorus – but there is no big show-stopping solo.

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