There are ways to achieve peace in the Middle East

Many Israelis think they face ‘annihilation’ by Iran and their proxies, and that this means their wars in Gaza and Lebanon fall outside the boundaries set by the international rules of war.  The fear of annihilation didn’t come out of nowhere, but although there has been some fiery rhetoric about Israel’s right to exist over the years, Iran doesn’t seriously believe it could destroy Israel, especially given that it’s backed by the US.  The ‘existential’ distress Israelis feel is more likely an expression of the deep insecurity affecting many Jews around the world, and it originates not from their treatment by Arabs or Iranians, but from centuries of racial abuse and persecution in Europe.  Understanding and accepting this as the underlying cause of the unrestrained assaults on Gaza and Lebanon ought to be fundamental to the peace process.

As things stand, Israel’s Prime Minister won’t listen to calls for restraint, even from the UN or international courts, not because he is mad, or is fighting to stave off corruption charges, or is bent on destroying hopes for a two-state solution, but because he knows that many Israelis think they are in fight for their survival, which on their view means all the normal rules go out of the window.

The fear of annihilation touches a deep place in the human psyche.  When psychoanalysts discuss the war in Gaza they speak of paranoia brought on by Israelis never being allowed to forget the Holocaust, and how that can make them seek refuge in feelings of omnipotence.  The feeling of omnipotence is a delusional state of mind, but it must have been a very seductive delusion to fall back on after the  horrific Hamas attack on October 7 last year.

Most outside observers judge the Israeli response to the threat from Hamas as having been wildly disproportionate, and think it has strayed far beyond its initial purpose – retaliation (or perhaps revenge) for the killing of so many Israeli civilians.  To most of us it’s clear that Netanyahu could end the war in Gaza and Lebanon and get the remaining hostages back simply by giving up on the idea of an enlarged ‘Greater Israel’ and conceding that the Palestinians have a right to their homeland in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza.  Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah have all said as much – that they would stop attacking Israel if it agreed to end the Occupation.  Jordan’s envoy to the UN has gone further and said the Arab states of the Middle East would guarantee Israel’s security if it ended the bombardment of Gaza and backed the two-state solution.

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WATCH: Ed Davey question Keir Starmer on Trump re-election

Today at PMQs, Ed used his questions to challenge Keir Starmer on the UK Government’s approach to the incoming Trump administration.

The text is below:

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Alex Cole-Hamilton on Trump victory

Two weeks ago,  Scottish Lib Dem Leader Alex Cole-Hamilton was in Scranton, Pennsylvania, using a week of holiday to knock up for Kamala Harris.

Today he spoke to BBC Scotland about his worries about a second Trump presidency.

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LibLink – Christine Jardine: How the UK should deal with four more years of Donald Trump

Christine Jardine has written for the Scotsman about how the UK should deal with the second Trump presidency.

Like most Lib Dems, she has focused on the need to strengthen our relationships with our European partners.

The news from the US dampened the mood at Westminster:

Wednesday morning too was cloaked in a cloud of gloom as MPs considered the prospect of an American president whose protectionist instincts and apparently dismissive attitude to Nato and European defence leaves us worried for the future. I do not want contemplate the dread that must have been felt in Ukraine about what it might mean for the support on which their war effort depends.

Then, of course, there are the implications for so many American women and their right to choose what is best for them and their bodies.

We need to work together, at home and with Europe:

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Defending Liberalism in a Trumpian world

World politics is going to be rough in the next few years – and British politics will be increasingly difficult, too.  Trump’s victory means that the USA’s role in global affairs will be highly unpredictable.  But we can predict that American influence will not be constructive on a range of global issues, from combatting climate change to managing the world economy and containing conflicts, and is unlikely to be affected by consideration for British or European concerns.  So how do we respond?

Ed Davey’s first response to Trump’s victory was spot on.  We need to defend and promote liberal values and prioritise rebuilding closer relations with our European neighbours.  Neither of those are easy.  Illiberal movements are gaining ground in many democratic countries, including within the EU.  Liberal democracy gains most support when economies are growing, societies are stable and international relations are peaceful.  Even without the added complications of an incoherent and unfriendly US Administration, the challenges of preventing catastrophic climate change, of coping with the mass movement of people that climate change and regional conflicts are already driving, of moving towards a sustainable global economy and resisting Chinese and Russian expansionism would be hard to manage – and harder to persuade the British electorate to share the cost.

There will no doubt be a flood of analyses of why a majority of American voters supported Trump.  But discontent at the economic and social disruption of their lives, and disillusion with the ‘elites’ who – as they see it – allowed disruptive change to sweep from outside through their communities, were major factors.  Those discontents are widespread in Britain as well.  The ‘left behind’ in northern and coastal towns feel similarly abandoned by educated elites and multinational corporations.  You Gov tracker polls show that the answer to the question ‘Are members of Parliament in touch with the public or not?’ has consistently shown around 70% answering ‘out of touch’ and 10-12% ‘in touch’ over the past five years.  Those in the Brexit Referendum who were saying ‘I want my country back’ were expressing a similar sense of loss to Trump supporters who want to ‘Make America Great Again.’

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Ed Davey calls Trump a “dangerous, destructive demagogue”

Ed Davey has called on the Government to fix our broken relationship with the EU in his first comments since Donald Trump won the US election. And he did not mince his words about the President-Elect, referring to him as a dangerous, destructive, demagogue.

He said:

This is a dark, dark day for people around the globe. The world’s largest economy and most powerful military will be led by a dangerous, destructive demagogue.

The next President of the United States is a man who actively undermines the rule of law, human rights, international trade, climate action and global security.

Millions of Americans – especially women and minorities – will be incredibly fearful about what comes next. We stand with them.

Families across the UK will also be worrying about the damage Trump will do to our economy and our national security, given his record of starting trade wars, undermining NATO and emboldening tyrants like Putin.

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The lamp beside the golden door has dimmed a little

After a surprisingly good sleep, I’ve woken up. I’ve done a quick review of the latest on CNN and the web.

Then I switched over to an excellent BBC documentary called “Scotland – The New Wild”. It is remarkable. It has some excellent footage of basking sharks.

In the past, I have looked to USA for vicarious inspiration. While UK domestic politics has been rather depressing, USA has provided a refreshing relief – some
inkling of a better approach for civic life.

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7:30 am update: Lib Dems react to US election outcome

It’s not officially over yet, but it looks very much as though Donald Trump has won the US Presidential election and that the Republicans have won the Senate. And with Supreme Court Justices likely to retire, Trump has the chance to reinforce the already iron grip of conservatives on the Supreme Court.

It’s a very bleak morning. This is the result I have feared for a long time but allowed myself to hope that Kamala Harris might just pull off a victory.

In the 3 months since she became the Republican nominee, she has barely put a foot wrong as a candidate. She’s run a positive, optimistic campaign. She did not repeat the mistakes of 2016 when the Democrats withdrew from the key battleground states because they thought they had won.

If there was anything she could have done better, it was land a hopeful economic message. She also didn’t land the blame on Trump and the Republicans for blocking measures which would have improved people’s economic situation like a child tax credit and paid family leave.

She had to contend also with the Middle East situation. That undoubtedly lost her some votes – and probably from both sides.

Anyway, senior Lib Dems have started to process the news. This is what they are saying on social media:

Layla Moran, until recently our foreign affairs spokesperson:

Votes not yet all in but looks like hate is winning. The implications for security across the globe cannot be underestimated. Ukraine. Middle East. China. The UK will need to reevaluate its geopolitical centre of gravity.

Tim Farron:

Oh well!! 🇺🇸 😱 First thoughts…. The UK now needs to do one thing the left/liberals won’t like (establish strong early relationships with the Trump administration) and one thing the right won’t like (scrap all barriers to trade with Europe/increase military co-operation).

Mike Martin:

The UK immediately needs to:

– Increase defence spending rapidly (rather than shrinking its army)
– Focus its military strategy on deterring Russian aggression in Europe (rather than confronting ‘global threats’)
– Work with European allies to defend Europe under a NATO that doesn’t have US support (rather than assuming that America guarantees European security).

Chris Coughlan:

With the geopolitical shock of a likely Trump win the UK needs to move immediately back closer to our European allies- including reopening the issue of the single market

Freddie Van Mierlo

As the results of the US Presidential election still come in, the U.K. must urgently consider its position in Europe and our security. Slava Ukraini

Vikki Slade

This is just devastating – the world is moving in a scary way & I fear for all those vulnerable groups in USA but across the world.
Why would a country fall for such a con?

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6am update: It really isn’t looking good

Since my last update at the back of 4, the outlook for Kamala Harris has become a lot bleaker. Trump is ahead in all of the battleground states and it looks like he is on course to win the popular vote.

It’s not over yet, but it’s not where anyone of a liberal disposition would want us to be at this stage of the count.

What’s worse is that it looks like the Republicans will have control of the Senate and the House is a bit of a toss up.

If you need reminding, Donald Trump is a convicted felon who refused to accept his defeat in 2021, leading to an insurrection which he encouraged. He tried to get his then Vice President to refuse to certify the results of the election.  He has been ordered to pay $83 million to E Jean Carroll after he called her a liar for accusing him of sexually assaulting her. He still has outstanding court cases relating to the 2020 election and the January 6 insurrection.

When he was last in office, he appointed 3 conservative Supreme Court Justices who overturned the historic Roe vs Wade ruling which guaranteed a federal right to abortion. This has led to abortion bans in many states which are so stringent that women who have miscarriages are being denied life-saving procedures.

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4 am update: Harris campaign “searching for bright spots”

I have just woken up and am catching up on how things are going.

And it’s not looking good, to be honest.

At this time in 2020, it didn’t look that good either and then it got better. However, CNN’s John King is now looking at Georgia and is saying that it looks more like 2016, when Trump won than 2020 when he eventually lost. He says it is possible that Harris can win the state, but “you would rather be Donald Trump in Georgia right now.” Harris is underperforming Biden’s 2020 result in 28 of the 159 counties.

The battleground is now very much in the 3 “rust belt” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. At this point, Trump is ahead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but there’s still a while to go.  The “blue wall” is going to be as crucial in the US election as it was in ours.

The Harris campaign does not expect the contest to be resolved tonight.

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Pennsylvania exit polls suggest a different climate than in the south

The CNN exit polls for Pennsylvania show higher responses for voters being concerned about reproductive rights and the state of democracy, compared to the numbers in Georgia and North Carolina.

Indications are that Philadelphia has seen higher than expected turnout, particularly in areas with high populations of those of Puerto Rican heritage.

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Nancy Pelosi predicts that the Democrats will win the House

Nancy Pelosi told CNN today:

“Hakeem Jeffries will be the speaker of the House. I don’t know what the margin will be, but I know that we have the votes to win the House.”

With the Republicans highly likely to take control of the US Senate, this suggests a split congress for whoever becomes the next President.

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First results not encouraging for Harris

I’m watching Election night on CNN, which provides a very pithy, statistical coverage of the results.

My first takeaways are not encouraging for Kamala Harris. Mind you we are very short of tea leaves to read so far.

A Florida county which Biden won by several points is showing Harris trailing Biden’s number.

In Georgia, it’s very early in the counting process. Independents, which make up 31% of the electorate, are going clearly for Trump, whereas Biden won the independents in 2020.

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Maiden speeches: Danny Chambers MP for Winchester

Danny Chambers made his maiden speech on Thursday 12th September in the Sir David Amess Adjournment Debate.

Here is the text of the speech in full:

Thank you Madam Deputy Speaker. That was an interesting maiden speech; it is clear how passionate you are—sorry, Madam Deputy Speaker, I will get this right. The hon. Member for Gillingham and Rainham (Naushabah Khan) spoke passionately about her constituency and how hard she will work for her constituents. It is an absolute honour to speak in this David Amess Adjournment debate. We heard moving tributes from people who knew him. We aspire to be MPs who are even half as good as he was for his constituency.

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Kemi Badenoch starts in denial about partygate

Embed from Getty Images

It is very encouraging to see a black woman leading a British political party for the first time. However, the Guardian reports on Kemi Badenoch’s initial interview as leader, on BBC One’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme:

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US election – be ready for a long wait

Liberal Democrat Voice will be covering the US election results tonight and during subsequent days, giving you the chance to add your comments as the results unfold.

Concerning the US presidential and congressional elections, there are two things I can be relatively sure of:

1. The initial vote counts (because unlike the UK, the USA vote counts are released on the web as they are counted and before a state result) are likely to show that Trump is winning. This is because the postal votes (or “absentee ballots”) are generally counted after election day ballots, and they tend to favour the Democrats. Conversely, electyion day ballots tend to favour the Republicans. So the election day ballots, which tend to be counted first, could show Trump ahead.

2. Donald Trump will come out very early, perhaps as early as an hour after polls close, and declare that he has won, and say that if the count shows that he has lost then there has been Democrat fiddling with the results. Worryingly, this sets the scene for potential street violence.

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Care Leaver Status as a Protected Characteristic

Following recommendations from the Independent Review of Children’s Social Care headed by Josh McCallister of the Local Government Association, our Corporate Parent Advisory Committee (CPAC) decided to raise the issue of care experience in Newcastle, and were grateful for the original lead by the Redcar and Cleveland Lib Dem Group, which we adopted to present as a Cross Party Motion to full Council on 2 October.

Making care experience a protected characteristic is a National Issue which broadens corporate parenting responsibilities across a wider set of public bodies and organisations. It could motivate employers, businesses, public services, and policy makers to develop policies and programmes promoting better outcomes for care experienced people. It would also make the UK the first country in the world to recognise care experienced people in this way.

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Janey Godley’s passing and lessons in political tribalism

As many readers will have seen in mainstream and social media, we lost the much loved Scottish comedian Janey Godley to cancer on Saturday (2 November 2024). Janey has been open on social media about her struggles with cancer and everyone knew that she was in her final days. Across public life in Scotland and the wider UK, figures from the world of entertainment and politics were quick to post glowing, and very fitting, tributes.

Many ordinary people posted tributes to social media too. I was one of them. In posting to Twitter (it will always be Twitter even after Musk finally forces me to give up using it), I noticed that I was quick to point out that that our “politics didn’t always coincide”. While true, I have been thinking since why I felt it necessary to use this form of words.

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5 million people unable to get through to their doctor as Lib Dems warn GPs must be exempt from Budget tax hike

  • One in four people who contacted their GP in the past month couldn’t get through on the day they called
  • Lib Dems warn that the government’s National Insurance hike is a “tax on community care” that will make crisis worse
  • Party calls for GPs to be exempt from the tax hike alongside other health and care provider

Over 5 million people tried to contact their GP in the past month but failed to get through on the day they called, House of Commons Library research commissioned by the Liberal Democrats has revealed.

The Liberal Democrats are calling for GPs to be exempt from the employers National Insurance rise, as well as social care providers, warning that it is a “tax on community care.”

The Library’s research, based on an ONS survey published on the 10th October, showed that 22.4 million people tried to contact their GP in the previous 28 days. Of these, 5.2 million were unable to get through to their GP on the day that they called, meaning nearly one in four people who wanted to get through to their GP could not.

According to the Library’s research, a further 1.2 million people were unsuccessful in contacting their GP at all that month.

It comes amid warnings the hike to the employers’ National Insurance (NI) rate from 13.8% to 15% in the budget will push up GP surgery staff costs.

The government has not set money aside to compensate surgeries for this increase and GP surgeries are not eligible for Employment Allowance that shields the smallest employers from the rise in NI.

For example an employee earning £30,000 a year will cost the practice an additional £866 and the average GP surgery will see their annual costs increase significantly.

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Welcome to my day: 4 November 2024 – “I’ve got a ticket to ride”

I found myself enjoying some free bus rides yesterday. And no, I don’t have a concessionary bus pass – I’m not that old… yet – but our local Transport Museum here in Ipswich was having a vintage running day, with a collection of vintage buses operating three routes around the town. It all seemed somehow appropriate given the controversy over bus fares this week.

In choosing to freeze fuel duty whilst partially removing the fare cap on bus journeys, Rachel Reeves made a curious choice. Whilst yes, it will be popular with motorists, cheaper bus fares have been a boon to those outside major cities where the fare cap had little or no impact – in London, for example, the flat fare is £1.75. And, by shifting the financial incentives further towards cars, it hardly sends out a message that the Government is taking Net Zero seriously.

But it’s just another clumsy move by a a government which seems capable of little else, at least as far as the media are concerned. Even setting aside the inherent bias of much of the mainstream media though, an administration which came into power offering competence and integrity has burnt through quite a lot of credibility remarkably early in the piece. And, whilst the levels of incompetence and “sleaze” are minor compared to the chaotic shambles that was the Conservative government post-2019, expectations were rather higher.

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2-3 November 2024 – the weekend’s press releases

  • Over 9000 farms in Labour constituencies could be hit by “tractor tax” as Lib Dems call on govt to scrap the hike
  • Partygate comments: Clear the Conservative party hasn’t learnt anything

Over 9000 farms in Labour constituencies could be hit by “tractor tax” as Lib Dems call on govt to scrap the hike

An estimated 9,079 farms in Labour constituencies could be hit by the “tractor tax” Liberal Democrat analysis has revealed. Liberal Democrats have called on the government to scrap the planned changes to inheritance tax relief for farms announced in this week’s Budget.

The worst affected Labour seats were Penrith and …

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A scary week ahead

American presidential elections in days of yore were pretty simple. We all went to bed at our usual time and then when we woke up in the morning, we knew who was going to be President.

And then Bush v Gore 2000 happened and it all took a bit longer as we learned about things like “Hanging Chads” and how they affected the vote counts in Florida. It took until 12 December until the Supreme Court stopped the recount and Gore conceded the next day.

In 2020, we spent four long nights and three and a half long days constantly refreshing CNN and agonising in WhatsApp chats before it was clear to everyone except Donald Trump and his followers that Joe Biden had won.

This year I’m not sure I have a big enough cushion to hide behind as the results come in. But before we get too absorbed in the details, take a minute to have a good laugh at Kamala’s appearance on last night’s Saturday Night Live. Pitch perfect:

We are probably not going to know for a while after the polls close whether the US will have a President who will respect women’s rights, put more money back in the hands of the poorest and grow the economy, or someone who will give to his billionaire mates, pursue policies that see more women die because they can’t get medical treatment if they have a miscarriage, and threaten US democracy itself.

The conventional wisdom amongst commentators at the moment is that Donald Trump will get his second term in the White House. Let’s hope they have it as wrong as they had it in 2016 when they all thought Hillary was going to win. We have to remember that part of the reason for the Democrats losing back then was because they were so convinced they were going to win that they stopped spending money in the swing states while Donald Trump spent a fortune on wall to wall advertising.

The Democrats are not making that mistake again. The Harris/Walz campaign has been concentrating on the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. The election will likely be decided on tens of thousands of votes in those places. It’s a bit like how our elections are decided in 100 or so marginal seats across the country except on a bigger scale.

She’s had some help in the past week from Scottish Lib Dem Leader who went out there with some friends (at their own expense) to knock on doors. It’s not the first time he has been out. He turned out to be a good luck charm for Obama in Virginia in 2008. He made some observations on Twitter this week about his trip an the prospects in the election:

The field campaign team there are exceptional but they are utterly exhausted and driving hard for the finish line, I’m proud to know them. They certainly put me to work in getting out the vote.

With over 1k doors knocked across 9 communities in Lackawanna county, PA, I got to see a lot of the Scranton area in stunning autumnal beauty. These are warm, resilient communities, but in many ways they have cause to feel left behind.

This is an exceptionally tight election, everyone knows that, but I’ve never seen tribalism run quite so deep before. Those houses without partisan lawn signs are in the minority and this election is dividing communities and even families, like never before.

A standout highlight for me was getting to meet Tim Walz in person, but above that I will never forget the warmth of the people I met on the doors of Pennsylvania.

My assessment? She can absolutely do it, but turnout is everything.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Georgia

If you have a fortune of $5 billion-plus in a country with a GDP of £$24.6 billion you will be a whale in a puddle. Such is the fate of Georgia Dream Party founder and chief backer Bidzina Ivanishvili.

And, if you are willing to part with some of your fortune, you can bend the political structure and electoral systems to your will. Ivanishvili is accused of doing just that in the recent Georgian parliamentary elections which the Dream Party won with 53 percent of the vote,

Bidshina Ivanishvili was born into humble beginnings in 1958 but when the Soviet Union collapsed he moved to Russia to grab what he could in the great Russian carve-up. He ended up with a multinational conglomerate encompassing banking, real estate and heavy industry. He returned to Georgia and in 2011 decided to try his hand at politics by forming the centrist, pro-EU Georgia Dream Party.

Backed with Ivanishvili’s fortune, the Georgia Dream Party won a landslide victory in 2012 elections and Ivanishvili became prime minister. He stepped down a year later saying that he had achieved all his goals and wanted to private life.

But Ivanishvili’s money insured that he remained the power behind the throne. And from that position he subtly tilted the Dream Party towards Russia. At the same time he sought membership with the EU. His behind the scenes influence led critics to brand Ivanishvili the “shadow leader.”

As the years passed it became increasingly difficult to walk the political tightrope between the goal of EU membership and the looming shadow of the bear. To keep Russia happy Georgia Dream introduced anti LGBTQ laws and a Foreign Agents Act. Both laws closely mirrored Russia’s laws on both issues. They also breached EU human rights provisions. As a result the EU broke off negotiations with Georgia.

Georgia Dream’s tilt to Russia was unpopular. Polls showed that 80 percent of Georgians wanted to move closer to the EU as protection from Moscow. All the indications. All the opinion polls, were that after three terms in office, Georgia Dream Party, would lose last week’s election, especially when they campaigned on a promise to ban opposition parties.

They won with 54 percent of the vote. The Opposition, EU election observers, President Biden, and even Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili, called foul. They claimed that Ivanishvili’s Dream Party was guilty of “bribery, intimidation and ballot-stuffing.”

The allegations were rejected by Ivanishvili and Dream Party Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze. They were welcomed by Hungary’s Vilktor Orban who hopes that eventually Georgia will become another “illiberal democratic” member of the EU. And the Russian bear? It stopped being silent and cheered.

Japan

Japan is a different democratic country. That is the reason for the lack of excitement in the wake of the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s failure to win a majority in the recent election.

The Japanese political system did not evolve over centuries like its Western counterparts. It was imposed on a socially conservative society with a strong respect for traditions, authority and seniority.

The result is a deeply Japanese political foundation with a democratic veneer, but a veneer which Japanese have come to treasure as much as their traditions.

The big word in Japanese politics is “wan” which is defined as being focused on consensus building and group harmony. It contrasts with the adversarial nature of Western politics

The electoral system reflects this consensus building nature. It is a mixed first past the post constituency-based system and proportional representation. The result is that quite often elections lead to a disparity between percentage of votes received and the percentage of seats in the Diet (the Japanese parliament).

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Ed Davey reacts to Kemi Badenoch becoming Conservative leader

Ed Davey has congratulated Kemi Badenoch on her election as leader of the Conservative Party and has pledged that the Liberal Democrats will be providing the strongest opposition to the Labour Government:

I’d like to congratulate Kemi Badenoch on being elected leader of the Conservative Party. The election of the first Black leader of a major UK political party is a historic moment for the country.

Voters across the country believe her party is too divided, out-of-touch and unable to accept Conservative failures over the past years.

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Observations of an Expat: Foreign Policy Impact of US elections

A Kamala Harris win this week is not good news for the UK and Europe. A Trump win is much, much worse.

Trump’s “America First” campaigns has fed a latent US isolationism which has forced the Democrats to adopt some of his policies, because, like it or not, America is a democracy and the president elected to represent all Americans.

According to one poll, only 22 percent of young Americans support involvement in the Middle East. Half of Republicans think that the US is supplying too much aid to Ukraine and only 44 percent of Republicans think that the US should play a leading role in the world. Democrats are more internationally minded with 65 percent in favour of an active foreign policy. The good news is that NATO has popular support with a bipartisan 70 percent approval rating. The fact is, however, that America is moving into its shell at one of the most dangerous periods for the world since the end of World War Two.

America’s diplomatic corps would be hard put to meet expectations even if there was a swell of opinion in favour of increased global involvement. It is still reeling from the Trump years when budgets were cut by 30 percent, ambassadorial posts were left empty and 60% of the diplomatic corps left either in protest or cutbacks. Biden has increased budgets but the damage done by Donald Trump will take years to repair.

Trump, of course, regularly threatens to withdraw from NATO. Biden and Kamala Harris have recommitted to the alliance but it was a Democratic president—Barack Obama—who first attacked NATO allies for failing to spend at least two percent of their GDP on defense. He also unveiled the “Asia Pivot” which shifts the military focus from Europe and the Middle East to East Asia. Trump, Biden and Harris have embraced the Asia Pivot.

Defense costs money and the policies of Trump, Biden and Harris are undermining the economies of UK and Europe. Trump, again is the worst. His tariffs on all imports—possibly as much as 20 percent on British and EU exports will hit exports. It will, of course, also lead to a tit for tat tariff war in which everybody loses—especially the consumer.

Kamala Harris will continue Biden’s $738 billion Inflation Reduction Act” which is peppered with isolationist policies. The IRA includes such things as a $7,500 handout for the purchase of US-made-only electric vehicles, and tax credits only for products made in America. The EU has protested and threatened to take America to the World Trade Organisation. But the WTO has been rendered useless by America’s 7-year refusal to agree to new judges for its appellate body.

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1 November 2024 – today’s press releases

  • GP and care home tax hike: Govt must not make same mistakes as Conservatives
  • Ed Davey warns inheritance tax change could create ‘lost generation’ of farmers
  • Conservative Leadership: contest has shown refusal to take responsibility for the damage they did
  • NICs hike: Govt must scrap “GP penalty” immediately
  • Cole-Hamilton responds to Edinburgh Halloween disorder
  • Cole-Hamilton: Next UK Conservative leader will not stand up for Scotland

GP and care home tax hike: Govt must not make same mistakes as Conservatives

Commenting on reports that GPs and care homes have voiced concerns about the rise in employer National Insurance Contributions announced in the budget, Liberal Democrat Health and Social Care Spokesperson Helen Morgan MP said:

After years of mismanagement by the former Conservative government, this budget was an opportunity to rescue GP surgeries from years of neglect.

We are urging the Chancellor to change course, and exempt GPs from a tax hike. This new government must not make the same mistakes as the Conservatives, fixing the GP crisis is crucial for saving the NHS.

If people can be checked quicker, fewer will end up in hospital for treatment. That’s better for patients, better for the NHS and better for taxpayers.

Ed Davey warns inheritance tax change could create ‘lost generation’ of farmers

  • Davey calls on the Chancellor to reverse changes made to farmers’ inheritance tax
  • The party has raised the alarm over concerns of a ‘lost generation’ of farmers
  • Around 70,000 farms will be impacted by the changes to the Agricultural Property Relief scheme
  • Lib Dem analysis of the Autumn Budget points to a £70m cut to DEFRA’s food and farming budget

Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey has raised concerns over the Autumn Budget creating a ‘lost generation’ of farmers with a double hammer blow to rural communities. It comes as he visits an agricultural college in Maidenhead today with Lib Dem MP Joshua Reynolds.

Analysis by the party raised fears of a £70 million cut to DEFRA’s food and farming budget hidden in the fine print of the Chancellor’s plans, meaning even less government support for farmers who are already struggling after years of chaos and uncertainty caused by the Conservative Party.

In the Budget, the Chancellor also announced sweeping changes to the Agricultural Property Relief scheme which will impact around 70,000 farms. The Liberal Democrats have raised serious concerns that the changes will force many to sell up small family-owned farms – with young people in rural communities across the country robbed of a future in farming as a result.

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ALDC By-Election Report, 31st October

It’s an England exclusive week for by-elections as 7 are held on Halloween, with the Conservatives being the biggest losers on the spooky day. The Lib Dems gained 2 seats and lost 1 from and to the Tories, a net double of seats. A variety of parties also gained or held their seats this week: both the Green Party, Labour, and independents held onto 1, while Reform gained a seat from Labour.

The headline win for the Lib Dems this week was once again in Westmorland & Furness Council. In the Kirkby & Tebay ward, Cllr Adrian Waite gained the seat from the Conservatives with over 82.7% of the votes, more than double what the Lib Dems had last time around. Well done and congrats to Adrian and the team for getting a second overwhelming win in the council in two weeks!

Westmorland & Furness Council, Krikby Stephen & Tebay
Liberal Democrat (Adrian Waite): 887 (82.7%, +48.7%)
Conservative: 186 (17.3%, -24.6%)

The other gain of the Lib Dems, also from the Conservatives, belongs to Hampshire CC, Bishops Waltham ward. Similarly, Cllr Jonathan Williams also more than doubled the Lib Dem vote share to 52.2%, while the Conservative vote collapsed from over 50% to under 35%. Congratulations to Jonathan and the local team for the work put into flipping this ward yellow.

Hampshire CC, Bishops Waltham
Liberal Democrat (Jonathan Williams): 2210 (52.2%, +28.6%)
Conservative: 1431 (33.8%, -23.1%)
Green Party: 477 (11.3% -2.0%)
Labour: 115 (2.7%, -2.6%)

The final battleground ward between the two parties this week sees a Tories gain from the Lib Dems, the only Conservative representation in Stockport MBC as of present. In the Bramhall South & Woodford ward, Sandeep Kashyap kept the Lib Dem vote steady, falling short of first place by less than 200 votes. Thank you and well done to Sandeep and the team for fighting the good fight, it won’t be long until we’re back.

Stockport MBC, Bramhall South & Woodford
Conservative: 1909 (47.9%, +4.6%)
Liberal Democrat (Sandeep Kashyap): 1733 (43.5%, -1.4%)
Reform: 133 (3.3%, new)
Labour: 115 (2.9%, -4.2%)
Green Party: 95 (2.4%, -2.4%)

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A fairer budget is needed to protect family farms and keep them out of the hands of corporations

I want to start on a positive. The new budget has some good stuff. The cut to draft duty on beers in pubs, the implication of 10-year financial forecasts to end short-termism, boast to defence spending and support for Ukraine against a fascist invasion, and more small businesses are now exempt from NI will help rejuvenate the economy. Likewise, many of the proposals in Rayner’s worker’s rights bill are positive.

However, I do have some concerns regarding the budget and its potential impact on farming communities.

I understand that large corporations and wealthy individuals purchase farmland to avoid taxes, which is an issue that needs addressing. However, Reeve’s comment about setting a £1 million limit to protect small farmers may be effective in areas with lower agricultural land prices. Unfortunately, farmland in Cornwall, especially in the Truro-Falmouth area, is very expensive. Implementing this price limit based on a “federal” standard will significantly harm rural communities where land prices are higher.

I believe a fairer solution would be to redefine what constitutes a “small farm.” Instead of basing this definition on land value, which is influenced by geography and external market forces beyond the control of individual agribusinesses, it should focus on the amount of money the farm/business makes. For example, a farm that earned an average of £1.5 million in profits (some of the larger corporate-owned ones do) over the previous 5 years could pay 20% above £1million. At least then you’ll be protecting genuine small businesses.

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Mark Pack’s October report: Putting our plans in place for this Parliament

The benefit of more MPs, part 1

Who gets to present a Private Members’ Bill in the House of Commons with enough debating time to have a decent chance of passing is all down to luck. There is a literal ballot of MPs to see who gets to go first, who second and so on… All luck – except each party makes its own luck, because the more MPs it has, the more of its MPs can enter the ballot and the better the chances of some of your team coming up high in the ballot.

So it was both luck and election winning leaflets festooned with bar charts that meant two Lib Dem MPs came out very high up in the ballot for Private Members’ Bills in the House of Commons.

We now know what they are going to use their slots for. Max Wilkinson, who came second, is going to promote solar power. Roz Savage, who came third, is also promoting an environmental measure by reviving the Climate and Nature Bill.

The two other Lib Dems in the top twenty are Danny Chambers, with an animal welfare bill, and Wendy Chamberlain, previously successful with her Carer’s Leave Act, with a bill to lift the limits on fundraising through charity lotteries.

Good luck to them all.

The benefit of more MPs, part 2

Whatever the timing, it would always have been welcome news that the government is commissioning an independent review into the scandal of draconian penalties imposed on carers for innocent errors in benefit claims.

But it is no coincidence that it came the day before the Liberal Democrat instigated debate on this very topic in Parliament.

How many such opportunities we get – whether it is opposition day debates, questions at Prime Minister’s Questions or similar – is very closely and formulaically linked to how many MPs we have.

More MPs, more opportunities.

Budget and strategy

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A Vision for Change: embracing the political middle ground

In today’s political landscape, many feel disillusioned. Labour seems unable to fulfill its promises, while the Conservative Party’s long tenure has left a bitter taste. This climate presents a unique opportunity for the Liberal Democrats to step forward and appeal to those who feel politically homeless.

Our approach must prioritize practical, common-sense policies that harness the power of logic over divisive rhetoric. We must address the pressing concerns facing the UK today—ones that impact the everyday lives of the working class. From the increasing cost of living to the scarcity of high-quality jobs, we need to offer solutions that resonate with those who feel left behind by the political establishment. It’s crucial that we don’t simply offer critiques of other parties but provide a grounded, realistic alternative that people can truly believe in.

Addressing the Rise of Far-Right Sentiment

Across Europe and the US, we’ve seen the dangers of far-right movements gaining traction by preying on people’s frustrations. Far-right ideologies often thrive in environments where individuals feel their voices aren’t heard, especially as they contend with economic hardship or lack of opportunities. In the UK, recent protests and social movements indicate a rising frustration and a void in representation for moderate and rational perspectives.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 20 Comments
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    I would opt for Christine Jardine. Sidelined by the party upper echelons. She is very likeable, speaks well and is witty. Someone people can relate to. I someti...
  • Jason Connor
    Very well said David. I couldn't agree more...
  • Jason Connor
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  • Peter Davies
    "And how do democratic institutions make decisions about technologies evolving faster than the policy frameworks designed to govern them?" That would be the nex...
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    Yeah right. Remember when we were all told to go paperless to save the planet? How's that working out!?!...