Tag Archives: donald trump

Mathew on Monday: How do we respond to the Polanski Green surge?

Folks, before I get into the thrust of my main item this week, a few readers got very hot under the collar in the comments section beneath last week’s column. So, if you’ll allow me, a few points.

Firstly, I now gather that the Lib Dem reshuffle was not triggered by Josh Babarinde stepping back from the front bench and had, in fact, been planned for a while. Happy to correct that.

Secondly, when I said I’d prefer just thirty Lib Dem MPs who were unashamedly liberal than scores more who sometimes appear very tentative, I was making a rhetorical point, of …

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Observations of an ex pat: Nobel Peace Prize

MAGA is not happy. Their leader. Their idol. Donald J.Trump is not this year’s recipient of what the Oxford Dictionary of Contemporary History calls “the most prestigious prize in the world”—the Nobel Peace Prize.

Of course, he never was going to be the name on the lips of announcing committee chairperson Jorgen Frydnes. At least not this week. Nominations for this year’s prize closed in January even before Trump was inaugurated.

But a little thing like a 124 year-old procedural rule was unlikely to stop a man who is running roughshod over a tried and tested 242-year-old constitution.

There is, of course, always next year. The president has, after all, negotiated six (or is it ten or 11) peace deals. And, even his harshest critics are saying that he deserves the $1.15 million prize money and gold medallion if the Gaza concord holds.

But reading between the lines of this year’s award the five-person Nobel Committee thinks otherwise.

They have given the prize to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado for standing up for democratic values which are being trampled by dictator Nicolas Maduro.

“Democracy,” said chairperson Frydnes, “is a pre-condition for lasting peace. However, we live in a world where democracy is in retreat. More and more authoritarian regimes are challenging the norms and turning to violence.

“Rule of law is abused by those in power. Free media is silenced. Critics are imprisoned and societies are pushed towards authoritarian rule and militarisation.”

He went on to say that Ms Machado represents “precisely what lies at the heart of democracy: our shared willingness to defend the principles of popular rule, even though we disagree. At a time when democracy is under threat, it is more important than ever to defend this common ground.”

The chairperson did not mention Trump by name. He didn’t have to. In fact, the overt criticism was directed at Maduro, but the slightly veiled reproach was clearly intended for the American president.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Trump and Russia

OMG! Trump has done another U-turn on Ukraine. This week he said that Ukraine should regain all the lands occupied by Russia and that any Russian plane encroaching on NATO airspace should be shot down.

He also referred to Russia as a “paper tiger.”

You would have thought that such talks would have infuriated.

No, they took it quite calmly on the chin. Russia is a bear, not a tiger, said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, “and there is no such thing as a paper bear.”

He added: “Russia, in general, and President Putin in particular value highly President Trump’s political will to continue working towards a peace settlement.”

The fact, is that the Kremlin believe in the TACO theory when dealing with the American president (Trump Always Chickens Out). They just have to tough it out; keep putting their case and keep fighting.

The Russians will also have noted that Trump’s “Paper Tiger” comments were not followed by talks about increased sanctions or any ultimate on ceasefire deadlines.

They were also heartened by Trump’s answer to a reporter’s question about whether he still trusted Vladimir Putin. He replied: “I’ll let you know in about a month from now.” A month is a long time international diplomacy.

Brazil

Ex-Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is out of office, convicted and under house arrest awaiting transfer to prison to serve his 27-year sentence.

He is still, however, a force in Brazilian politics and is busy planning his release.

It won’t be easy, Brazil’s Federal Supreme Court (the STF) is determined that Bolsonaro stays behind bars and its members have said that any pardon or general amnesty would be unconstitutional.

But that is not the end of the story. Whomever succeeds current president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, will probably be able to appoint three new members to the Supreme Court. If they are Bolsonaro supporters than the ex-president could be sprung.

It is a long shot, but already ambitious Brazilian politicians believe that pandering to Bolsonaro could win them the presidency. Chief among them is Tarcisio de Freitas, current governor of Sao Paulo. De Freitas has already said that he would pardon Bolsonaro in the first hour of assuming office.

De Freitas and others are pursuing the Bolsonaro blessing because the ex-president still has a large base of supporters. They are mainly evangelical Christians which comprise about 30 percent of the Brazilian population.

Bolsonaro has won their unwavering support with his stands against wokeness, abortion, gender roles and LGBTQ+ rights. On top of that, Bolsonaro is a strict Catholic, he also advocates strong traditional families which aligns with evangelical values.

France

Another ex-president facing gaol time is France’s Nikolas Sarkozy.

On Thursday he was convicted of a criminal conspiracy involving millions of Euros supplied by Libyan dictator Muammar Gadaffi for Sarkozy’s 2007 election campaign. The money was meant to pay for Sarkozy’s influence to end Gadaffi’s long-term estrangement from western countries.

Convicted alongside the ex-president were two of his former interior ministers. Claude Geant was found guilty of corruption and Bruce Hortefeur of criminal conspiracy. Sarkozy’s wife, singer and former top model Carla Bruni-Sarkozy, also faces charges related to the Gadaffi case.

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Observations of an Expat: The UN

Donald Trump doesn’t much like the United Nations. That was obvious from his General Assembly speech this week.

He is not alone. Most diplomats who have worked with the UN have found it overly political, bureaucratic and inefficient.

But at the same time they acknowledge that dissolution of the United Nations would be a catastrophe.

American withdrawal would be the same because Washington supplies 22 percent of the UN budget as well as its New York home. The latter, at the moment appears possible. Or, if not withdrawal, rendering the UN irrelevant and ineffectual by not paying its dues and pulling out of its agencies which do not align with Trumpian policy.

Trump’s budgetary request for 2026 “pauses” almost all payments to the UN. So far, the US is $3.72 billion in arrears due to the general fund and another $1.3 billion behind in its contribution to the 110,000-strong peacekeeping force. On top of that, half of America’s international aid was distributed through UN agencies.

The Secretariat is facing a serious liquidity crisis and is forced to deal with it with hiring freezes and staff cuts. UN agencies’ budgets have shrunk by about a third. Food, medicines and assistance for hundreds of millions is being eliminated.

Ironically, the Trump Administration’s attitude to the UN is out of step with the American public. A 2025 Pew Research Survey showed that 57 percent of Americans had a favourable view of the UN. 41 percent had an unfavourable view. More importantly, 69 percent support American paying its dues to the international body in full and time.

Meanwhile, Trump continues to wage war. He has pulled out of the UN-sponsored Paris Climate Change Agreement, the World Health Organisation, UNESCO, the Human Rights Council and the UNRWA which supplies aid to Palestinians.

If Trump continues to “pause” contributions then relations between Washington and the UN will likely come to a head in 2027 when the US will be more than two years in arrears with its dues. If that, happens then the US—under UN rules—will lose its vote in the General Assembly which could prompt US withdrawal in a fit of Trumpian pique.

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Observations of an Expat: Kirk Consequences

MAGA and President Trump promised revenge for the assassination of Charlie Kirk and it has already started.

Late night comedian Jimmy Kimmel has followed Stephen Colbert into the laughter wilderness after being “suspended indefinitely” by ABC hours following a comment from  Brendan Carr, chairman of the broadcasting regulator agency the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) that the commission would take action against the network for Kimmel’s comments.

Kimmel made the mistake of criticising MAGA and the president for blaming left-wing radicals for the assassination of Kirk when, said Kimmel, it was more likely to have been a right-wing terrorist.

ABC refused to say that the “indefinite suspension” was related to Kimmel’s comments, but the juxtaposition of events is undeniable.

After the sacking, Carr said that Mr. Kimmel’s remarks were part of a “concerted effort to lie to the American people, “and that the FCC was “going to have remedies that we can look at.”

“Frankly, when you see stuff like this — I mean, we can do this the easy way or the hard way,” He added: “These companies can find ways to change conduct and take action, frankly…or there’s going to be additional work for the F.C.C. ahead.”

Trump simply said of Kimmel’s departure: “Great News for America” and called for the dismissal of two more late show comics—Jimmy Fallon and Set Myers. The Democrats have condemned the sacking as an “attack on freedom of speech and democracy.”

Money talks in America and Kimmel’s departure is almost certainly linked to a planned multi-billion dollar involving the distributing channels. The controversial merger would have created a monopoly which needed the approval of Brendan Carr and the FCC.

Jimmy Kimmel’s is not a lone target. President Trump is suing the New York Times for $15 billion and Trump-supporting tech tycoon Larry Ellison is bidding for CNN. Carr has made it clear that any liberal-leaning broadcaster—radio or television—is in his sights. Every eight years broadcasters have to renew their license. Usually this is a pro forma exercise but the FCC can deny a license if it “fails to serve the public interest”. Carr maintains that he determines what the “public interest” is. So far, however, he has not revoked a broadcasting license.

There was no suggestion by Carr or anyone in the Trump Administration about the suitability of Fox News’s license when Fox host Brian Kilmeade said that mentally ill homeless people should be given lethal injections. “Just kill them,” he added.

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Trump in the UK: On the importance of respecting the office, if not the man

I don’t expect to find many fans of Donald J. Trump on Lib Dem Voice. Maybe from the old days when he was the gold-lined host of the US version of The Apprentice who delivered every iconic catchphrase with the un-self-conscious bravado and camp cattiness of a drag queen, but certainly not now. 

He is not our kind of chap. 

The Donald offends mainstream British liberalism. He is brash, it is considered. He is ostentatious, it is reserved. He talks about how great he is and the amazing things he has done. British liberalism would rather die. 

His affront to the quiet civility of our brand of liberalism is so potent that it has altered perspectives in Britain of what America is. Trump is such an all-encompassing, room-dominating character that is difficult to separate him from anything around him. This power has led to London Mayor Sadiq Khan criticising Trump as he touched down for his second state visit to the UK, it also led to Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey declining an invite to a state banquet. 

The pre-emptive hangover from Brand Trump is so strong that it has led many of us down a dangerous path. His once-in-a-generation ability to generate headlines has meant that many have forgotten that there is a difference between the Presidency and the President. 

Donald John Trump is the President of the United States of America; he is not the Presidency.

He occupies the Oval Office now, not for all time. 

In just a few years, the people of America will pick another person for the job and Trump will be barred from holding it again. Such is the nature of their Constitution. Trump is temporary, the Presidency, and what it represents to the American people, is forever. 

Perhaps British people, including liberals, struggle with this because we have a permanent, non-political institution, embodied in one person, who fulfils our head of state requirements. 

For us, the duties of representing the country, its people, and its way of doing things are forever barred from the political arena so it’s hard for us to imagine its politicisation. God Save The King indeed!

But, thanks to a little family squabble beginning in the mid-1770s, our American cousins do have a political appointee as their head of state and he is, at time of writing in our country. We should, as much as many of us find the man himself lacking in decorum, afford the customary and due respect and welcome to the office. Keep calm and, with gritted teeth, if necessary, carry on!

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Tom Arms’ World Review

United States

A prerequisite of a successful foreign policy is a stable domestic base.

And in today’s interconnected world, a successful foreign policy has a positive impact on home affairs.

At the moment Donald Trump is in big trouble on the home front. This in turn is having an impact on America’s ability to influence world affairs.

To start with there is the Epstein Files—the paedophile sex scandal which refuses to go away.

But even more troubling is this week’s economic news. The Bureau of Labour Statistics reported that new job creations were a mere 22,000 in August—a third less than anticipated. On top of that, …

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Vince Cable writes: Boycotting Trump

Whoever advises Ed Davey gets full marks for suggesting the boycott of next week’s  Trump banquet at the Palace. And congratulations to Ed for taking up the right issue in the right way at the right time. 

A boycott  signals clearly that Lib Dems reject the Labour government’s obsequious, subservient cultivation of Trump. And to focus on Trump’s active complicity in the horrors of Gaza touches the moral core of British public opinion. 

I set something of a precedent by boycotting the state dinner for the King of Saudi Arabia when I was Acting Leader. There was some tut-tutting from party grandees as well as the anti-Lib Dem press (ie. most of it). I was accused of disrespecting the Royal Family. 

But we should argue that the use of royalty to massage the vanity of appalling guests – from Mobutu and Ceausescu to Trump – is, itself, disrespectful to the head of state. I never experienced any subsequent rebuke from the Palace for my boycott and I very much doubt if Ed’s dealings with the King will be affected.

The focus on Gaza is timely and correct. But there is a wider issue: the way in which the government has turned the UK into a supplicant, vassal state of Trump’s America. The implications go beyond the indignity of bowing and scraping to Trump. Of course, the USA has been our close ally since wartime and is the centrepiece of NATO. Continued US support is currently needed to help support Ukraine in its existential struggle. But clinging to hope and sentiment isn’t a strategy.

 The Trump presidency should surely be wake-up call to Britain and other European countries. If the ‘Special Relationship’ amounts to no more than the American President’s susceptibility to flattery, a love of royal photo-opportunities and a liking for Scottish links golf courses, it is worthless. It could evaporate as quickly as Peter Mandelson’s role as Trump ‘whisperer’ and courtier-in-chief. Any defence guarantee to Ukraine or the rest of Europe is unreliable and is discounted in the Kremlin accordingly. Trade agreements are even more precarious.

The choice facing the UK and other Western allies is stark. One is to ‘hang in there’ in the hope that Trump will continue to smile in our direction, will mellow and be succeeded by someone less capricious, avaricious and opportunist. That appears to be UK government policy. Sadly, there is little sign of mellowing or of a more tractable successor. The recent humiliation meted out to the Japanese in their negotiation over trade is a warning that even the most craven of supplicants will be trodden underfoot if it suits Trump’s mood.

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Observations of an Expat: Charlie Kirk

The murder of Charlie Kirk is a tragedy. The reaction is a frightening potential disaster.

On a personal level, the violent death of a 31-year-old father of two is heart breaking.

On the political plane it is a calamity. As of this writing we do not know the motive for the shooting. It is, however, most likely that Charlie Kirk was murdered for his far-right political views.

The right of free and open debate is a fundamental principle of democracy. It is one of the key reasons that democracies have prospered and totalitarian states have failed.

That is why most of America’s political figures have been loud in their condemnation of Charlie Kirk’s death, including President Donald Trump who started off on the right note in attacking the murder and the rhetoric which led to that murder.

But Trump being Trump, he couldn’t help himself from sliding into the self-same finger-pointing accusations of the type that he himself said led to Kirk’s death.

After praising Charlie as a “great American” who “loved his country” Trump went on to say: “All Americans, and the media, must confront the fact that violence and murder are the tragic consequence of demonising those with whom you disagree day after day, year after year, in the most despicable way possible.

“For years, those on the radical left have compared wonderful Americans like Charlie to Nazis and the world’s mass murderers and criminals. This kind of rhetoric is directly responsible for the terrorism that we are seeing in our country today.”

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Tom Arms’ World Review

China

The received diplomatic thinking for some years was that the United States represented the secure and stable post-war order. China represented radical—bordering on revolutionary– change.

This is changing. Trump’s America First policy coupled with tariffs and an ill-defined isolationism, is projecting America as the chief agent of change.

Meanwhile, China’s growing dependence on international trade, is transforming it into an advocate of globalisation and the international institutions that protect it.

This was apparent at this past week’s meeting of the 20-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Tianjin. In his opening address, Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed that countries should “uphold justice, engage in multilateralism and advocate for inclusive economic globalisation and an equitable global governance system.”

He also called for support for the United Nations and the World Trade Organisation (The WTO has been effectively rendered powerless by America’s refusal to allow new judges to be appointed).

China has over the years set up a collection of overlapping regional organisations which it dominates. They include the SCO,  The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, the China-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States and the China-Arab Forum.

Beijing uses each of these organisations that to push the claim that China—not America—is the world’s anchor of stability. And as the Trump Administration pursues a rolling campaign of economic warfare against its trading partner this story is gaining in credence

Diplomatic and trading opportunities are being handed to China on a plate by the policies of MAGA America. It is getting to the point where an increasing number of countries are actively interested in finding an alternative to the dollar as the world’s premier trading currency. Also, fewer countries appear to be willing to impose sanctions on America’s behalf.

A key country in the shift away from America is India. Historically, India has been at loggerheads with China and successive American administrations have made strenuous bipartisan efforts to secure Indian support to counterbalance growing Chinese power.

These efforts appeared to bear fruit in the first Trump Administration and during the Biden years. But they suffered a serious setback when Trump recently opposed a 50 percent tariff on India for buying Russian oil.

In Tianjin, Modi made a point of physically embracing both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. It was an embrace which sent worried shivers down the spines of American diplomats.

France

French President Emmanuel Macron looks set to lose another prime minister—his fifth since January 2024.

The current resident of the Hotel de Matignon—Francois Bayrou—has scheduled a vote of no confidence in his economic plans for next week. And it looks like it will fail. His deficit reduction proposals are hugely unpopular.

M. Bayrou is a centrist—he and Macron want to reduce France’s high level of public debt which is currently 114 percent of GDP. To do that, Bayrou proposes budget savings of $51 billion a year.

The problem is that Bayrou heads a minority government and budget cuts are opposed by both the right and left-wing blocs of the National Assembly. The National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen, most socialists and Jean-Luc Melenchon’s far-left supporters all oppose the cuts. They also see the debate as an opportunity to increase their parliamentary representation and have called on Macron to call fresh elections to the National Assembly.

The Socialist leader, Olivier Faure, has offered to stave off elections with a pledge to join the Bayrou’s government. But he demands a high price. He wants the cuts halved to $25.5 billion. Faure was rejected.

It is unlikely that Macron will accede to Melenchon and Le Pen’s election demands. The last time he did so, Macron ended up shrinking his minority government. Current polls indicate that if elections were held now, Macron’s supporters would end up with a paltry 15 percent of the vote. The RN is likely to win a third of the votes, the combined parties of the left 25 percent. The balance would be split between socialists and moderate conservatives.

If he does not call elections, Macron will have to choose another prime minister from what appears to be a dwindling list of suitable candidates and an increasingly unstable political environment.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump has taken to heart one of the most famous quotes from George Orwell’s iconic novel “1984”: “He who controls the past controls the future.”

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Observations of an Expat: End of Tariffs?

Trump is right. Ending tariffs would be an economic disaster, at least for him. Any damage to America would be his own fault.

It would not, as Trump claims, turn America into a third world country. That is a typical Trumpian hyperbole.

But the sudden and dramatic end of tariffs would definitely damage Trump’s vision of the future American economy. And that in turn will hurt Trump politically. Whether it would also be bad for the rest of the world… well, we’ll have to wait and see.

The prospect of the sudden end of tariffs was raised by the decision of the Appellate Court last Friday to support a lower court’s judgement that the tariffs were unconstitutional.

The Appellate Court, however, has given Trump a possible out—The Supreme Court. The Administration has until October 18 to appeal to the ultimate judicial authority and, of course, the court is packed with conservatives,

But that may not be enough. Trump imposed the tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The IEEPA gives the president sweeping powers to declare an emergency and to use economic actions to deal with it.

These include such measures as sanctions and freezing assets. However, nowhere in the Act does – ruled the Appellate Court by 7 to 4—is the president given the power to impose tariffs. That is “a core Congressional power.” This means, according to two levels of the judiciary, that the tariffs are unconstitutional and should be reversed.

So far Trump’s tariffs have raised more than $210 billion dollars. By time the Supreme Court rules on their legality the figure will be around $300 billion.

If the tariffs are illegal than those who paid them can sue the government—plus interest and possible damage to business—for the money that they lost.

But that is not all. Tariffs are at the heart of Trump’s long-term economic policy and linked to his Big Beautiful Bill (BBB). According to some estimates, the sweeping tax cuts in the BBB could increase the federal deficit by $5.2 trillion over the next ten years. Tariff revenues are meant to more than offset those losses.

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Ed Davey to boycott Trump State visit banquet over Gaza

Ed Davey has announced that he will boycott the State Banquet to be held during Donald Trump’s State Visit because of Trump’s complicity in the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. He explains why in this video:

He said:

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26 August 2025 – today’s Federal press releases

  • Reform press conference: Farage wants to follow Putin and tear up our hard-won rights
  • Dash Questionnaire “doesn’t work”: Urgent review into approach to domestic abuse needed
  • Starmer must rule out conceding to Trump on digital services tax
  • Government’s latest announcement on EU deal shows it “moving at a speed sloths would laugh at”
  • Liberal Democrats warn of Reform ‘Taliban Tax’ as regime says it is willing to work with Farage

Reform press conference: Farage wants to follow Putin and tear up our hard-won rights

Responding to Reform’s press conference this morning, Liberal Democrat Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper said:

Farage’s plan crumbles under the most basic scrutiny. The idea that Reform UK is going to magic up some new places to detain people and deport them to, but don’t have a clue where those places would be, is taking the public for fools.

Of course Nigel Farage wants to follow his idol Vladimir Putin in ripping up the human rights convention. Winston Churchill would be turning in his grave. Doing so would only make it harder for each of us as individuals to hold the government to account and stop it trampling on our freedoms.

On Zia Yusuf’s comments regarding paying the Taliban to take back Afghan migrants, Daisy Cooper added:

Reform’s Taliban tribute plan would send British taxpayers’ cash to fund their oppressive regime, fuelling the persecution of Afghan women and children and betraying our brave Armed Forces who sacrificed so much fighting the Taliban. Clearly British values mean nothing to Farage and his band of plastic patriots.

Dash Questionnaire “doesn’t work”: Urgent review into approach to domestic abuse needed

Responding to the news that Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips has admitted the main screening tool used to decide which domestic abuse victims get urgent support “doesn’t work”, Liberal Democrat Justice Spokesperson Josh Babarinde MP said:

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A blip in Trump and Putin’s relationship

For decades Trump has been singing Putin’s praises, calling the 2014 annexation of Crimea “so smart” and his 2022 full scale invasion of Ukraine “genius”. Since the beginning of his second term in office, he has been very friendly towards Putin. However, the last few days have seen Trump be less accommodating to the Kremlin. Trump reduced Putin’s ceasefire deadline, threatened sanctions, and positioned US nuclear submarines closer to Russia. Trump is clearly growing impatient with Putin’s unwillingness to end the war. Do Trump’s recent actions signal a meaningful change in the dynamic between Trump and Putin or are Trump’s threats empty and unlikely to have an impact on his cosy relationship with Putin?

Looking to the start of Trump’s second presidency, we have seen him, time and time again make concession after concession to Russia whilst rolling back US support for Ukraine. Trump refused to reproach Putin for invading Ukraine, voted alongside Russia, Belarus and North Korea against a UN resolution condemning the Russian invasion, and his administration has held ‘peace’ talks with Putin without Zelenskyy. He has further acted in the Kremlin’s interests by stepping back from NATO, and undermining western consensus on the war.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Gaza

“There is no starvation in Gaza. There is no policy of starvation in Gaza,” so spake Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Well, just about everyone disagrees with him, including his good buddy Donald Trump.

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO) in July alone 63 Gazans died of malnutrition. Obviously many more are suffering from it and still clinging to life. Of those who died 24 were children and 38 adults. The adults were mainly parents who gave what little food they had to their children.

Death from malnutrition is one of the worst possible ways to die. It takes months and is extremely painful.

It usually starts with fatigue. Then the body—in its search for the energy it needs to stay alive—starts to break down muscle tissue from the organs, including the heart and lungs. The skin becomes dry and develops sores. Hair falls out. The victim suffers severe stomach cramps and joint and muscle pain. The victims become highly susceptible to other disease. In the final stages a malnourished person becomes apathetic, confused and then dies.

The worst affected, are children under three. They are more likely to become malnourished simply because they are at an age when their fast-growing bodies need more energy/fuel. They also have limited reserves of fat so they become malnourished more quickly.

Survivors can suffer long-term problems, dependent on how soon they can be treated high calorie foods such as “plumpy nut.” But they have to be treated in special centres over a period of many months or their bodies can suffer other problems.

If their state of starvation is too far advanced, then the children especially will suffer complications for the rest of their lives.

They will almost certainly be below height and weight and the onset of puberty will be delayed. The children will be more susceptible to diarrhoea, pneumonia, malaria, measles and chronic diseases. They will also have a lower IQ and have difficulty concentrating.  According to the WHO, children who survive severe malnutrition are 12 times more likely to die from a childhood disease.

If they survive to adulthood, they will suffer from depression and anxiety and find it difficult to forge relationships.

One of the main reasons for long-lasting damage is the permanent harm that malnutrition does to the synaptic connections. These are the tiny electrical connections between the body’s cells. Synaptic connections are most commonly referred to when talking about brain functions, but they are also vital in the nervous system and keeping the heart pumping.

Brazil and Canada

Trump’s tariffs are now a political weapon. Actually, they have always been in his political arsenal. He is just being a bit more open about using excise duties for political ends.

The two main targets this week are Canada and Brazil.

The latter involves Trump’s Brazilian friend Jair Bolsonaro. The former Brazilian president was known as the “Latin Trump” and the two men had a lot in common. Not only did their policies overlap, so did the way in which they left office.

Both men claimed that their second runs for the presidency of their respective countries were “stolen” by a “deep state” liberal establishment. Both men also allegedly organised coups to reverse the results of those elections and encouraged their supporters to storm federal buildings to keep them in power.

Trump got away with it. His 2024 election victory brought an abrupt halt to attempts to bring him to trial. Bolsonaro was not so lucky. First he was banned from running for office again until 2030 and then, in February of this year, he was told by Brazil’s Supreme Court that he must stand trial.

Trump’s says the charges against Bolsonaro are “a political witch hunt” and he has slapped a 50 percent tariff on Brazil. He also sanctioned the judge—Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes—leading the investigation of Bolsonaro with sanctions and blocked the justice’s access to US investments.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) has responded by telling Trump that if January 6 had occurred in Brazil, he would be in prison.

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Observations of an Expat: Epstein – The History

Theories, threats, counter-threats and conspiracies are flying thick and thin around the name of convicted paedophile and sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein and the nature of his relationship with Donald Trump.

Were the two men friends? If so, how friendly? Did Trump know that Epstein was a paedophile before his conviction? If so, how much did he know? Did he, himself have sexual relations with under-age girls? Is Donald Trump part of the deep state cabal of paedophiles who have been running the country according to QAnon and others?

All questions now being hourly discussed within and without the MAGA world and Donald Trump’s political future may hang on the answers.

It is therefore worth reviewing the known historical facts.

Jeffrey Epstein was born in Brooklyn in 1953 to working class parents. He was extremely clever and graduated high school two years early and went on to study physics and mathematics at New York University. However, for some reason, which remains unclear, he dropped out after two years.

Despite not having a degree, Epstein landed a teaching job at the posh Dalton School on New York’s Upper East Side. Former pupils there said that he was known for his “inappropriate behaviour” towards under-age female students and that this may have been the reason for his being fired in 1976. The official reason was “poor performance.”

While at Dalton, Epstein became friendly with one of the parents; Alan Greenberg, CEO of Bear Stearns. He quickly hired Epstein as a junior assistant and within four years the former teacher was a limited partner. The following year he set up his own finance house and was soon attracting billionaire clients such as Adnan Khashoggi and Victoria’s Secret CEO Leslie Wexner. He used his connections with Wexner to recruit models for Victoria’s Secret, many of them underage girls.

Epstein’s mathematical genius earned him a reputation as a Wall Street wizard and millions upon millions of dollars. His wealth went on a 78-acre private island in the Caribbean, a New York mansion, a West Palm Beach mansion and wild parties for the rich and famous and – under-age girls.

Exactly how many under-age girls were recruited for his parties is unclear. The Florida indictment named 26. The Miami Herald interviewed 60. One Department of Justice document said the figure could have been as high as a thousand.

The rich and famous included Prince Andrew, Bill Clinton and Donald Trump. He introduced Trump to Melania and attended their wedding. In a 2002 profile of Epstein in New York Magazine, Trump was quoted as saying: “I’ve known Jeffrey for 15 years. He is a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them on the younger side.”

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Trump

Trump has either lied, is lying or is incompetent. That is the view of an increasing number of prominent MAGA supporters.

The reason? The Jeffrey Epstein files. The so far secret activities of the late convicted paedophile is one of the key conspiracy theories that put Trump in the White House.

One of Trump’s election promises was to publish the Epstein files and prove that key Democrats were implicated in Epstein’s under-age sexual orgies. Now he says there are no files, they are a Democrat fabrication and MAGA supporters should shut up about them.

To be precise he posted on Truth Social this week:

What’s going on with my ‘boys’ and, in some cases, ‘gals?’ They’re all going after Attorney General Pam Bondi, who is doing a FANTASTIC JOB! We’re on one Team, MAGA, and I don’t like what’s happening. We have a PERFECT Administration, THE TALK OF THE WORLD, and ‘selfish people’ are trying to hurt it, all over a guy who never dies, Jeffrey Epstein.

For years, it’s Epstein, over and over again. They wrote documents written by Obama, Crooked Hillary, Comey, Brennan, and the members of the Biden Administration—they created the Epstein Files and if there was something bad in them for MAGA, the Radical Left Lunatics would have already released it.

LET PAM BONDI DO HER JOB — SHE’S GREAT!

The 2020 Election was Rigged and Stolen, and they tried to do the same thing in 2024—That’s what she is looking into as AG, and much more. We are saving our Country and MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.

They problem is that the MAGA crowd has become fixated on conspiracy theories. They are the glue that holds them together. For Trump to simply dismiss one of the most prominent conspiracy theories that he propagated is raising serious questions about his credibility.

Mike Cernovich, a prominent Trump supporter, wrote on X: “No one is buying it. No one is dropping it.”

Natalie Winters, one of Steve Bannon’s protégés, wrote: “I just think it’s frankly very grifty to have spent your entire career promoting…the idea that there is this deep state, the idea that there’s this unelected class of. You know, bankers, corporations, countries, intel agencies, blah, blah, blah. And then finally, you have the power to expose it, and either you’re not, because there’s nothing there, in which case it makes you a liar—and I don’t believe that—or you’re ineffective, or you’re compromised.”

Trump responded to his latest critics with what must rank as one of the all-time great insults. He called them “weenies.”

Dalai Lama

The Dalai Lama turned 90 this month. The world loves this wise old Buddhist monk. Except the Chinese. They hate him.

To Beijing, the 90-yeard-old saffron-robed monk represents Tibetan independence. In fact, he is—for many Tibetans—the spirit of independence reincarnated.

Tibet has been in and out of the Chinese orbit for centuries. During the 19th and first half of the 20th century, Tibet was free of Chinese control. During that interregnum, two-year-old Tenzin Gyatso, was declared the reincarnation of the previous Dalai Lama and carted off to Lhasa to be taught how to be a theocratic ruler,

In 1950, Mao’s communist troops started to reassert control over Tibet and by 1959 the 24-year-old Dalai Lama’s position had become untenable and he fled to India where he established a government-in-exile.

In the intervening years, the Dalai Lama has travelled the world n his fight for Tibetan independence, and over the years, has tempered his positions. He no longer advocates full independence from Beijing. Instead, he proposes that Tibet become an autonomous region within China.

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18 July 2025 – yesteday’s press releases

  • Lib Dems: water regulation in our country is broken
  • Ofwat: Finally Government listened to Lib Dems
  • Scot Lib Dems comment on confirmation of Trump visit dates
  • Cole-Hamilton: SNP want to focus on independence, I want to focus on NHS
  • Cole-Hamilton: SNP want to focus on independence, I want to focus on NHS

Lib Dems: water regulation in our country is broken

Responding to the news that the number of the most serious water pollution incidents went up by 60% last year, Liberal Democrat Spokesperson for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Tim Farron said:

This record of failure shows water regulation in our country is broken.

Water companies are getting away with polluting our rivers on an industrial scale and face little more than a slap on the wrist.

The government must bring forward a proper overhaul of our water sector starting by scrapping the failed watchdog Ofwat.

People are fed up with empty promises from ministers while Britain’s waterways continue to be ruined by sewage.

Ofwat: Finally Government listened to Lib Dems

Responding to reports that the Government will scrap Ofwat, Liberal Democrat environment spokesperson Tim Farron MP said:

At last, the Government has listened to the Liberal Democrats. Since November 2022, Liberal Democrats have been calling for Ofwat to be scrapped- and if the Government do not commit to this, it would be a dereliction of their duty and a betrayal of millions of customers across the country.

But the Government must not stop here, and we will continue to hold them accountable. Britain now needs a new, effective regulator, to stop the sewage scandal once and for all.

Today we see again that there has been a dramatic increase in sewage spills. Liberal Democrats will continue to fight for customers, citizens and for cleaner water.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Donald Trump

It has been a great week for Donald Trump. Perhaps his best ever. His “Big Beautiful Bill” has passed Congress. There is nil blowback from Trump’s decision to bomb Iran and the US Supreme Court has handed him another useful decision.

But within his success could be the seeds of failure. Starting with the “Big Beautiful Bill” which, among others, cuts MedicAid to an estimated 10-15 million Americans. These are the least financially advantaged (aka poor) members of society who cannot private health insurance. Many of them voted for Trump.

These voters will not be entirely cut off from hospitals. All hospitals are required to treat emergency cases such as a broken arm. But if you have cancer or a chronic condition which requires regular hospital attention and you don’t have private health insurance, then you will be in trouble without MedicAid.

But the MedicAid cuts will affect not only America’s indigent. Someone will have to cover the increased use of accident and emergency clinics. This will have to come out of either local taxes or increased health insurance premiums for the middle classes. So everyone loses and it won’t take long for them to figure out who is responsible.

As for Iran, there has been virtually nil reaction from Tehran. They bombed a US base in Qatar but warned the Americans of the incoming missiles. Then they accepted a ceasefire. There were no more attacks on Israel. No terrorist attacks on Europe or the US. No closure of the Straits of Hormuz.

Trump’s strategy of attack hard and fast, exit quickly and propose a ceasefire appears to have worked—for now. It is still early days. We don’t know how much enriched uranium the Iranians rescued, or what they will do with it and they are certainly aren’t about to tell anyone. So Iran could still blow up into a “forever war” of the type that Trump has pledged to end.

Finally, there is the Supreme Court which ruled that the lower American courts cannot block Trump’s executive orders as they have been doing. On the surface, this is a major triumph for the president. But one needs to read the written opinion of Trump-appointed Justice Amy Comey Barrett to realise otherwise.

Justice Barrett supported the majority which ruled against the lower courts. Then she laid out a blueprint of how Trump’s opponents could block him without using the courts. Furthermore, the Supreme Court made a deal with the White House than it would accept without question any future rulings of the court.

Ukraine

Good news and bad news for Ukraine. First the bad news. The US is cutting back its supply of weaponry. The reason? Because America has supplied so many howitzer shells and patriot missiles that its own arsenal is dangerously low. It is true. The US does need to replenish stocks.

The Europeans will be able to pick up some of the slack, especially Germany. But not all.

Now the good news. The Russian summer offensive appears to be faltering. Not only that, but 50,000 Russian troops are trapped in Sumy Oblast by Ukrainian forces.

The Russian summer offensive started at the beginning of May and concentrated on north and northeast regions. It was initially successful, capturing some 173 square miles of Ukrainian territory.

But then the Ukrainian counter offensive came. The country’s top general reported this week: “Based on the results of May June, we can say that this year’s wave of the enemy’s summer offensive has failed.” He added that the Ukrainian forces had not only stopped the Russians but were now attacking and had isolated an estimated 50,000 Russian troops.

In other Ukrainian news, Russian and Ukrainian diplomats meeting in Istanbul negotiated another POW swap which took place this week.  Most of the Ukrainians that were released had been in Russian captivity since 2022. All of them were severely wounded or seriously ill.

Finally, according to the South Koreans, the North Koreans will be sending another tranche of troops to help the Russians.

Israel

It is clear that Israeli Prime Benjamin Netanyahu is hoping for an Iran bounce. After all, he has been calling for an attack on Tehran’s nuclear facilities since 1993 and the American attack is clearly popular with Israeli voters.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

 

Trump

MAGA is divided. Its strength in the past that it has been united behind one man—Donald Trump.

Whatever he said was taken as gospel. Whatever he did was heroic.

But now there is a possibility that he may decide to join forces with Israel and drop a bunker-busting bomb on Iran’s underground nuclear enrichment facilities. As a result some of the shine is coming off MAGA’s great leader.

“This has not been thought through,” said Trump’s former campaign manager Steve Bannon. He added: “Stopping forever wars is one of the three planks of the MAGA Movement.”

Tucker Carlsson is known as Trump’s lead trumpeter. “I am afraid this (the US bombing of Iran) will see the end of the American Empire,” he said.

And then there is loony MAGA to the core Marjorie Taylor Greene: “Forever wars, intervention, regime change, put America last, kill innocent people, are making us broke and will ultimately lead to our destruction.”

Then on the other side are figures such as senators Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell. They have both called on the president to support Israel and strike Iran while it is at its weakest. But then they are Old Guard rather than MAGA.

Iran

Iran desperately needs friends. Unfortunately for Tehran they appear to be backward in coming forward.

The two most likely candidates for a supporting role are China and Russia. The Russians have been the grateful recipients of Iranian-made drones which are making an impact in the Ukraine War.

Moscow was quick to condemn the Israeli attack which it said was unprovoked and in breach of the UN Charter. The Russians also accused Moscow of undermining diplomatic efforts to persuade Iran to peacefully abandon any nuclear ambitions.

That all sounds very warlike, and in January of this year Tehran and Moscow signed a 20-year “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” which covered a wide range of interests including, defense, intelligence sharing, nuclear technology and energy. The agreement, however, does not commit Russia to come to Iran’s defense if the latter is attacked.

On Thursday Moscow closed all of its diplomatic offices in Iran and withdrew its entire diplomatic staff. They were needed if Putin was going to provide substantive aid.

China—in total disregard of sanctions—gets 20 percent of its oil from Iran. In 2021 Tehran agreed to become a key link in China’s Belt/Road Initiative. In 2023 China brokered a diplomatic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

China wants to increase its influence in the Middle East and its sees Iran as its Trojan horse in achieving that goal. Unfortunately it took four days for President Xi Jinping to get around to even making a statement on Israel’s attack. And then it was to offer China’s good offices as a peace broker rather than as no-holds barred Iranian supporter.

The fact is, Tehran is a rogue state. It exports terrorism and destabilises the world order. Few people outside of Iran would grieve its demise and many inside would also be glad to see the fall of the theocracy. But that could only make the mullahs more dangerous as they are backed into a corner with no option but to lash out in return for a guaranteed ticket to an Islamic paradise.

Gaza

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Please sir, may I have no war?

The presidency of Donald Trump has, thus far, been defined by his failure to fulfil his election promise to de-escalate global conflicts.

Most recently, Trump has flirted with the idea of the US entering into the Israel-Iran conflict, commenting, “I may do it, I may not do it” when questioned. To put it simply, this is not the language of de-escalation.

But the next logical question after “Will the US get involved?” can only be “Will it call on the UK to join?”. This decision will come down to Keir Starmer, who will either have the choice of authorising the UK’s involvement or putting the decision to a parliamentary vote, the latter being the route taken by former Prime Minister Tony Blair regarding the Iraq War.

There is, however, a third option: the Wilson approach.

Former Prime Minister Harold Wilson decided to withhold the UK military’s involvement in the Vietnam War, a decision echoed by his successor, Edward Heath. While both provided support through materials and rhetorical encouragement, neither leader engaged directly.

Keir Starmer will likely face this choice in the coming weeks and months. Either he will have the UK join Trump in engaging in war, or he will withhold British military support. It is his moment to show whether Wilson or Blair inspires his leadership.

I hope that he chooses the former, for all our sakes.

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Observations of an Expat: South African farmers

South Africa’s White farmers—and, face it, most of South Africa’s farmers are White Afrikaners—are facing difficulties.

Are they being subjected to a government-orchestrated genocide? No, that is a Trumpist calumny of the first order.

Are they being buried in their thousands along the road as show in one of the videos that Trump showed in the Oval Office? No, that was a five year-old video showing a temporary memorial to two Boer farmers.

What about all the newspaper cuttings that Trump produced in his ambush of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa? Those were all about fighting in the war-torn Democratic Republic of the Congo.

How about Julius Malema singing “Kill the Boers.” He is leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters which won 9.5 percent of the vote in the last election. Describing him—as Trump did—as representative of South African politics is akin to saying that Nigel Farage and the Reform Party determine British government policy.

In short, Trump’s attempted trap was riddled with obvious lies. Except one, President Ramaphosa in February signed a bill allowing for the confiscation of farmland.

Mind you, it is more nuanced than that. The bill allows for expropriation in “circumstances where it is just and equitable and in the public interest to do so.” And defines the just and equitable circumstances as when the land is not being used and stipulates that there should be no intention to either develop the land, resell it at profit or to use it such a way to pose a risk to other people.

This may sound fair, but it is also vague enough to worry the banks who are expressing concern about loans to South African farmers. And Boer farmers, like farmers everywhere, live from bank loan to harvest to bank loan.

Actual implementation of the new law is being held up by a legal challenge from the Democratic Alliance Party which is actually a member of the ruling coalition. The DA claim that the law breaches the constitutional provision protecting private property and is preparing its case for South Africa’s Supreme Court.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

The Vatican

What’s in a name? If you’re the Pope, quite a lot.

With 2,000-years of history, the incoming Bishop of Rome is able to choose a name from among his 266 predecessors whose career best reflects his values.

American-born Robert Prevost has chosen to be known as Pope Leo XIV. This is an important nod to Pope Leo XIII, who led the church from 1878 to 1903 and is generally regarded as the father of modern Catholic social teaching. He called for the church to address social and economic issues, and emphasized the dignity of individuals, the common good, community, and taking care of marginalized individuals.

In the midst of the Gilded Age, Leo XIII defended the rights of workers and said that the church had not just the duty to speak about justice and fairness, but also the responsibility to make sure that such equities were accomplished.

Prevost’s choice of the name Leo invokes the principles of both Leo XIII and his immediate predecessor, Pope Francis. In his own lifetime he has aligned himself with many of Francis’s social reforms, and his election appears to be a rejection of hard-line right-wing Catholics in the U.S. and elsewhere who have used their religion to support far-right politics.

Leading the American pack as a self-appointed moral arbiter of the Catholic community is Vice-President JD Vance. Shortly after taking office in January, Vance began to talk of the concept of ordo amoris, or “order of love.” He claimed it justified the MAGA emphasis on family and tribalism and the mass expulsion of migrants.

Vance told Sean Hannity of the Fox News Channel, “You love your family, and then you love your neighbour, and then you love your community, and then you love your fellow citizens in your own country, and then, after all that, you can focus and prioritize the rest of the world. A lot of the far left has completely inverted that.”

The Pope’s job is to be a moral arbiter and interpreter of Christian doctrine. Much more so than that of any politician, all of whose morals are generally regarded as suspect. On February 10, Pope Francis responded to Vance in a letter to American bishops. He said the vice president was wrong.  “Christians,” wrote the Pope, “know very well that it is only by affirming the infinite dignity of all that our own identity as persons and as communities reaches its maturity,” he wrote. “Christian love is not a concentric expansion of interests that little by little extend to other persons and groups…. The true ordo amoris that must be promoted is that which we discover by…meditating on the love that builds a fraternity open to all, without exception.”

“Worrying about personal, community or national identity, apart from these considerations, easily introduces an ideological criterion that distorts social life and imposes the will of the strongest as the criterion of truth,” Pope Francis wrote.

He acknowledged “the right of a nation to defend itself and keep communities safe from those who have committed violent or serious crimes while in the country or prior to arrival,” but he defended the fundamental dignity of every human being and the fundamental rights of migrants, noting that the “rightly formed conscience” would disagree with any program that “identifies the illegal status of some migrants with criminality.” He continued: “I exhort all the faithful of the Catholic Church, and all men and women of good will, not to give in to narratives that discriminate against and cause unnecessary suffering to our migrant and refugee brothers and sisters.”

The next day, Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, who described himself as “a lifelong Catholic,” told reporters at the White House, “I’ve got harsh words for the Pope…. He ought to fix the Catholic Church, concentrate on his work and leave border enforcement to us.”

As an American-born pope in the model of Pope Francis, Pope Leo XIV has the power to present himself as a moral alternative to MAGA in the same way as Polish-born Pope John Paul II countered the Soviet empire. He has already re-tweeted Pope Francis’s criticisms of Vance. This would explain the furious response to the new pope by the MAGA crowd. Laura Loomer, the far-right influencer close to the ear of Donald Trump, Pope Leo, wrote “another Marxist puppet in the Vatican.” Influencer Charlie Kirk suggested he was an “open borders globalist installed to counter Trump.” Kirk is probably right. Is that such a bad thing?

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Kashmir

Donald Trump says that the Kashmir problem goes back thousands of years and is very complicated, which is his way of saying that he doesn’t want to be involved.

To be honest we can talk about the roots of Hinduism, the invasion of the Mughals, the British Empire, and etcetera. But in reality the Kashmir problem dates back to the 1947 partition of the Indian subcontinent.

At that time the semi-autonomous kingdom of Jammu and Kashmir was given the option to join India or Pakistan. But there was a snag. The monarch—Maharaja Hari Singh was a Hindu while the majority of the population was Muslim.

Initially, the Maharaja tried to solve the problem by opting for independence. However, in October 1947, tribal militias from Pakistan invaded Kashmir. This prompted the Maharaja to seek military assistance from India. In return, he signed the Instrument of Accession, formally agreeing to join India. The result was the First Indo-Pakistani War (1947–1948).

The conflict ended with a United Nations-brokered ceasefire in 1949, which established a Line of Control (LoC) dividing Kashmir between Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistani-administered Azad Kashmir. The UN also called for a plebiscite to allow the people of Kashmir to choose between India and Pakistan. This never happened.

Kashmir has remained a flashpoint ever since. India and Pakistan have fought additional wars over the region—in 1965 and 1999—and tensions persist with frequent military skirmishes along the LoC.

In addition to the international dimension, Kashmir also faces internal unrest. From 1989 onward, a violent separatist insurgency emerged in Indian-administered Kashmir, fuelled by dissatisfaction with Indian rule, human rights abuses, and support for militants from across the border. This insurgency has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and widespread suffering among civilians.

Then in August 2019, Narendra Modi’s Indian government, revoked Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, which had granted Jammu and Kashmir a special autonomous status. This was followed by a heavy military crackdown, internet shutdowns, and the detention of local leaders.

Just to make things more complicated, China also holds a portion of the region (Aksai Chin) and has its own disputes with India and tends to side with Pakistan.

This is all very troubling, but what makes it more so is the nuclear dimension. In 1998 both countries started building nuclear arsenals and they both have about 170 nuclear warheads each. India has a No First Use policy. Pakistan does not. This presumably means that if Pakistan is faced what it regarded as an existential threat then it would feel justified in the nuclear option.

Following the recent murder of 26 Indian tourists in Kashmir, India has threatened to scupper the 1960 Indus Water Treaty and cut Pakistan off from water which it needs to survive. This has been interpreted as an existential threat.

To complicate matters further, Israel—with its estimated 160 nuclear warheads—is paranoid about the “Islamic bomb” represented by Pakistan. The government of Benjamin Netanyahu also has close relations with India’s Narendra Modi.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump is not known for ethnical behaviour. In fact, he may be one of the most corrupt presidents in American history. And American politics have been known for their corruption throughout the country’s nearly 250-year history.

In his first term, President Trump was attacked for promoting his newly-acquired International Hotel in Washington DC as THE Washington hostelry. His message was clear to foreign and domestic visitors: stay at my hotel and I will looking kindly on you. Guess where visitors stayed?

Whenever Trump upped sticks and moved to the Florida White House at Mar-a-Lago (which was quite often) he took with him a large retinue of Secret Service agents and White House staff. He charged the government for the privilege. This earned him an estimated $2 million net in his first four years. The practice continued when he was out of office and in his second term.

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Observations of an Expat:100 Days

The first 100 days of the Trump Administration has been among the most consequential in American history. Consequential does not necessarily mean good. In this case, it means very, very bad.

Let’s start with the elusive issue of reputation. In the eyes of the rest of the world, America’s reputation is probably the worst it has ever been.

It took years of painstaking work to establish the trust and relationships that made America the leader of the Free World. It has had its problems, but generally speaking, post-war America is the closest the world has ever had to a “shining city on the hill.” Poof! Gone in 100 days or less.

Make America Great Again has become America first then we win, you lose zero-sum international politics.

The United States has gone from supporting democracies around the world to cosying up to dictatorships. It has threatened to withdraw support from its allies and threatened them with annexation.

The United States was the chief architect of the post-war rules-based international order which has resulted in one of the most sustained periods of world peace and economic growth in human history. Trump has turned his back on the rule of law in favour of might is right at both the international and domestic level.

He appears willing to turn away from Ukraine and towards rule-breaking Russia because—as he told Volodomyr Zelensky—the Ukrainian president doesn’t “have the cards.”

Domestically, he is bypassing Congress to rule by decree with a flurry of Executive Orders. These EOs have thrown tens of thousands of federal workers out of work. They have led to major cutbacks at the National Institute of Health, university research programmes and the Centre for Disease Control which will cost umpteen lives in America and the world.

His row with the universities has damaged academic freedom and the well-deserved reputation for excellence in America’s higher education.

He has called into question America’s much-admired system of checks and balances not only by bypassing Congress but by also ignoring the courts who have criticised him for arresting and deporting people without due process of law. Freedom of association, the press and speech (all of which are enshrined in the First Amendment) mean nothing to Trump.

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Observations of an Expat: Boycott!

It’s time to boycott American goods and services. Buy British. Buy European. Buy Chinese. Buy anything except American.

Non-Americans hit by Trumpian tariffs cannot influence American politics through the ballot box. But they can vote with their pocket books. And a point-blank refusal to buy American products would have more of an impact than retaliatory tariffs that make those products more expensive.

Individuals are already turning their backs on American merchandise.  Last month Europeans registered their displeasure with Donald Trump and his billionaire backer Elon Musk by cutting Tesla sales by 50 percent. Others have shown their disapproval by refusing to buy Coca-Cola or taking their coffee breaks at Café Nero instead of Starbucks.

But these are haphazard kneejerk boycotts which may give the individual a momentary self-righteous glow. They will have little if any effect on the Washington policymakers. What is needed is a coordinated effort that organises pickets, produces literature and stuffs it through letter products. A well-oiled machine with foot soldiers, a PR team and a website that identifies products and services to boycott and names non-American alternatives and goes on to monitor success.

A boycott would also help the re-ordering of trade patterns away from the United States. If people are not buying American goods than they are buying goods from other countries. The businesses in those countries will quickly realise the opportunity and divert their supply lines accordingly

The government can’t do the job of organising a boycott. Not because it is incapable of the task but because it would be politically irresponsible. A successful government-organised boycott would almost certainly result in retribution from the ever-mercurial Trump. It would be in character for Trump to retaliate with restrictions in vital areas such as intelligence gathering or weapons procurement.

No, what is needed is an existing political machine that has significant representation in parliament but is separate from the government. There is no time to re-invent the wheel.   The public requires an existing political party whose leader has already firmly staked out a firm anti-Trumpian position and called for a coordinated response to tariffs and other unacceptable behaviour by the current tenant of the White House.

What is needed is for Britain’s Liberal Democrats—led by Sir Ed Davey—to organise a proper boycott of American products. The government can’t do it. The Tories won’t do it. That leaves the Liberal Democrats – with a leader committed to doing something—with the opportunity and the responsibility.

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Trump has set out his tariffs – the UK should respond robustly

So Donald Trump did exactly what he said he was going to do, and put tariffs on imports from all of America’s biggest trading partners. At time of writing, Keir Starmer has acknowledged there will be an impact on the UK economy, but has yet to say how he intends to respond beyond promising to “keep a cool head”. On top of the 25% tariffs on British steel and cars, there is now an additional 10% ‘everything else’ tariff, which interestingly is less than the 20% applied to EU exporters. While this may reflect the lower trade imbalance that the UK enjoys with the US compared to the EU, it is just as likely to be intended as some performative favouritism designed to drive a wedge between the UK and EU.

So how should the UK respond? It’s true that ultimately nobody wins a trade war, and mutual economic damage is always inflicted until a truce is negotiated.  Does this mean that maybe we should just suck it up, avoid any retaliation, and hope that we can dodge the worst of the harm until a new US administration arrives? Or should we respond robustly and hit back with significant tariffs of our own on the US, and risk provoking “retaliatory-retaliation”? Despite the inherent risks I suggest the latter, for three reasons.

Firstly, we know Trump doesn’t respect weakness, and a failure to respond will be seen as weakness by his administration. If you hand over your lunch money to the school bully with no resistance, what’s to stop him coming for your pocket money too?

Secondly, Trump is a very transactional negotiator who seeks maximum advantage with zero interest in right and wrong. Subsequent negotiations will start from the ‘facts on the ground’ at that point in time. Without applying retaliatory tariffs of our own, the question then becomes what does the Government offer to give away in exchange for tariff relief?  Scrap the digital services tax? Allow imports of US chlorine-washed chicken and hormone fed beef? At least if we apply tariffs of our own, first thing on the table is mutual reductions in tariffs before we give anything else away.

Finally, if we apply retaliatory tariffs it will affect US companies that export to the UK. Some of those are large corporations with armies of lobbyists in Washington, and many are political donors. We need those lobbyists and donors pressuring the Trump administration to negotiate tariff reductions, as they have far more influence on a cash-hungry campaigner like Trump than we can hope for.

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Observations of an Expat: First Shots Fired

The first shots were fired this week in the war between the White House and the American judiciary.

As expected, the courts have moved to block Donald Trump’s disregard for the constitution and the rule of law and to nudge him toward legality.

Not so expected is the Republicans response: The threat of impeachment.

So far four judges have either been threatened with impeachment or have had articles of impeachment lodged against them in the House of Representatives. They are:

  • Judge Paul Engelmayer issued an order preventing DOGE from accessing the federal payments system.
  • Judge John Bates ruled that health agencies must restore data related to gender-affirming care,
  • Judge Amir Ali granted a temporary restraining order that halted Trump’s 90-day suspension of foreign aid.
  • Judge John McConell ordered the White House to lift a freeze on federal spending.

But the bulk of the White House’s venom has been saved for and directed against Judge James Boasberg. He had the temerity to challenge the administration’s use of the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to deport suspected Venezuelan gang members to an El Salvadorean prison.

The deportation was wrong on so many counts. For a start, the deportees were suspected criminals. They had not been convicted in a court of law. Furthermore, the Alien Enemies Act allows for the deportation of citizens of countries with which the US is at war. America is not at war with Venezuela. Finally, the administration ignored the judge’s ruling not to land the deportees in El Salvador and to return to the US.

Trump has chosen his fight well. Immigrants are unpopular. Immigrants who are suspected members of a violent Venezuelan gang even more so. So, MAGA—and the Republican Congress—is standing four-square behind Trump.

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Trump’s steal deal with Russia on Ukraine

This weekend, the party will be debating the F14 motion “The UK’s Response to Trump” at conference.

Recent statements by our party and the motion itself pretty much encapsulate the UK public’s feeling about the Trumpist revolution in the United States. The Lib Dems, as an opposition party, can more easily be the voice of reality, saying what the UK government dares not to say as it seeks in vain to seek some shred of common ground with Washington, especially over the future of Ukraine.

The reason for Trump’s partiality towards Putin is simply that the business opportunities are too tempting for making money for his family, associates and MAGA agenda.

Here Trump’s model is a reflection of Putin’s, with his entourage of compliant oligarchs. The US context however makes Trump’s oligarchs not quite as beholden to him, having mostly made their own money rather than looted it.

Trump’s long business relations with Russia are well-documented.  That they are alive and well was recently reinforced by the reported presence of long time Trump associate Russian oligarch Dmitry Rybolovlev acting as a go-between at the US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Ukraine

The Ukraine ball has bounced from Ukraine’s court to Russia’s court and now back into America’s court.

Donald Trump has always claimed a special relationship with Vladimir Putin– “He listens to me…the war would never have started if I had been in office…I can stop this war in 24 hours.”

Not if Vladimir can help it. As I write this Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff is flying back to Washington after exhausting talks in the Kremlin. He went asking Putin to agree to a 30-day ceasefire. Ukraine had already—under pressure from Trump—said yes.

Putin said…I’ll think about it. Actually he was a bit more diplomatic. He prefaced his hesitation with the normal flattery that must precede any exchange with the American president. He said that he is “aligned” with Trump and “expressed solidarity” with the man in the White House.

Then the Russian leader said: “I need more information,”which is another way of saying “I’ll think about it,”which is another way of stalling.

Putin is stalling because at the moment he is on the offensive. It looks as if he might soon push the Ukrainians out of their Kursk salient. He continues to inch forward in the Donbas and every captured inch improves his negotiating position.

That negotiating position has not changed for three years: Ukraine out of NATO and EU and demilitarised. International recognition for the annexation of the Donbas and Crimea. Sanctions lifted. Zelensky replaced by a Russian puppet.

Trump, however, is not focused on Putin’s long-term aims. He wants a ceasefire now. He has demanded it and has threatened renewed sanctions if his ultimatum is not met. It hasn’t been and Trump’s next move will reveal more about his role as honest broker.

Trump’s tariff rollercoaster

Tariffs up, down, off, on. Markets crave certainty. They fear uncertainty and they panic at chaos.

Trump’s muddled tariff policy is causing the stock market to dive. And according to Trump’s past statements, the stock market is the best judge of his economic policies.

He started off well. His election in November was followed by big rises. Nasdaq and the Dow Jones reached record highs in December. The S&P 500 two months later. American business was anticipating an economic boom fuelled by a bonfire of government regulations. It didn’t believe that Trump would actually follow through with threats of tariffs.

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