Category Archives: Op-eds

Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 29th October 2023 - 11:38 am

Trump

Trump has been too tight-fisted for his own good. That is the judgement of number of those observing the trial of ex-president Donald Trump on racketeering charges related to his alleged efforts to subvert the Georgia electoral process.

So far, three lawyers and one bail-bondsman out of 19 of Trump’s co-defendants – have flipped, pleaded guilty and agreed to testify against the ex-president.

One of the main reasons for their change of heart is believed to be astronomical legal fees. America’s top legal eagles are expected to turn up in the Georgia courtroom for the Trump trial. Their fees can be as high as $5,000 per hour and each defendant is expected to have two or three attorneys each for the six-month trial.

The fees for just one lawyer could run to $3.6 million. The latest co-defendant to change sides is Jenna Ellis. Her crowdfunding page raised $216, 431 for legal fees – a drop in the proverbial ocean. This means that most of the co-defendants face the prospect of bankruptcy unless they turn against Trump.

The ex-president may have been able to retain their loyalty by paying their legal fees. He has refused to do so. All the money being raised by his crowdfunding efforts is going to his legal fees alone, except for what he can siphon off for his presidential campaign.

There are other reasons for bail bondsman Scott Hall, and lawyers Jenna Ellis, Sidney Powell and Kenneth Chesebro to switch sides. Agreeing to help the prosecution means that prison time has been more or less ruled out. And the lawyers are hoping that the most they will be found guilty of is a misdemeanour. If the jury opts for a felony charge then they will be disbarred and lose their legal license.

There are, however, risks in turning against Trump. He has repeatedly proven himself to be a vengeful man with thousands of followers prepared to harass those who turn up against him and even issue death threats. And death by shooting is a very real danger in America – as the people in Lewiston, Maine discovered this week.

Israel

Why are we waiting? Is the question being asked by thousands of Israeli soldiers camped on the Gaza border and in the street cafes of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised a ground invasion of Gaza to end the power of Hamas once and for all. But so far no Israeli boots have trod on Gaza ground.

There have been a lot of exploding artillery shells – an estimated 8,000 of them. And there has been a watertight blockade which has left 2.2 million Gazans without food, water, electricity and vital medicines. As a result an estimated 6,000 Gazans – many of them women and children – have died, and the world’s sympathy is shifting from Israel to Gaza.

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Caron Lindsay

Three ways the Lib Dems should use our distinctive voice at the next election

By Caron Lindsay | Sun 29th October 2023 - 9:55 am

Alex Davies was Vince Cable’s Chief of Staff when he was Lib Dem leader between 2017 and 2019, a time of tumultuous and febrile politics when our “Bollocks to Brexit” message gained us 16 MEPs at the same time as we won hundreds of new councillors. We used the unique opportunities offered to us in the European elections to the max.

He, like many of us in the party, including me, are concerned that the party’s messaging is too timid for the coming General Election and feel that we need to be offering a much more distinctive liberal voice. Having put virtually all our eggs in the Blue Wall, we think that our strategy needs to be refined to make sure that we make the gains we have worked so hard for over the past four years.

In an article for Comment Central, Alex sets out three ways in which he thinks we could say something different and popular. Essentially, he says not being the Tories is just not enough. Mid Bedfordshire gave us a clue on how the next election could play out if we don’t enhance our message.

On the airwaves – where most voters consume election campaigns – there is no ‘two horse race’ with the Conservatives. Rather Ed Davey has to be heard above both Sunak and Starmer.

He reminded us of what Paddy said just before the last time the British public dumped a failing Conservative Government for Labour:

“My fear is this,” he said, “that we shall see an election, and maybe a change of government – but we shall not see a change of direction. We shall still be starved of clear vision, a commitment to change, the courage to face up to what must be done. It is the first crucial role of this Party to see that that does not happen.”

He sets out three ways in which we could tweak our message to challenge Labour as well as oppose the Conservatives.

First of all, the single market. We need to talk about getting back in there:

The Lib Dems could argue that the British people cannot afford to pay for his political caution. Britain’s third party should be brave enough to say that only a ‘single market dividend’ will yield the billions needed to fund real change in the country.

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Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: MAGA wins

By Tom Arms | Sat 28th October 2023 - 9:48 am

MAGA has won the Speakership of America’s House of Representatives.

It is difficult to be more MAGA-like than Louisiana Congressman Mike Johnson.

He is opposed to Ukraine; supports Israel; maintains that Trump won the 2020 election; is a born again evangelical Christian who quotes the Bible whenever possible; voted against the Biden budget; is a member of the right-wing Freedom caucus;  is opposed to same-sex marriage; opposes abortion and has Trump’s endorsement.

Moderate Republicans – and just about everyone else – were terrified at the prospect of the election of right-wing “legislative terrorist” Jim Jordan. He seemed more intent on tearing down the political establishment then working with it. So they blocked him, again and again and again.

The moderates wanted Minnesota Congressman Tom Emmer wielding the Speaker’s gavel. They looked as if they might succeed. Then Donald Trump interceded – in a complete reversal of his previously stated neutrality, and in contravention of all political conventions – slammed Emmer for voting to certify Joe Biden’s election and endorsed Mike Johnson.

By this time the moderates had been worn to a frazzle by long nights, ruined weekends and endless rounds of votes. They risked being blamed for a government shutdown if a Speaker was not chosen soon as well as being accused of preventing vital aid reaching war-torn Israel and Ukraine. They voted for Johnson for an easy life.

They will most likely live to regret it. Moderate Republicans are telling themselves that the lesser of two evils has been elected. But the only real difference between Jim Jordan and Mike Johnson is the decibel levels at which they operate. Jordan’s reputation is as a loud-mouthed arch-conservative bully. Johnson is quieter. He has as worked more in the Capitol Hill shadows and he has not been in Washington as long as Jordan. But Johnson is every bit as uncompromisingly far-right as Jordan and just as ruthless in pursuit of his political agenda. The difference is style, not substance.

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Hina Bokhari

Calling it out

By Hina Bokhari | Fri 27th October 2023 - 4:07 pm

I’ve been called Paki, terrorist, told to “go home”, “go back to where you belong” and one person said he would “bomb me”. Not just online, but to my face.

The problem is that I’ve got so used to it that I don’t react. I don’t get angry anymore. I just accept I will always be attacked.

I’ve learnt a lot the last few days. I’ve cried too. The tensions in the Middle East have impacted me quite personally and I see the ripple effects it has in London acutely. Luckily, I am surrounded by caring friends and family who are compassionate and understand the complexity of what is happening in Israel and Gaza but online there is hatred that is sadly spilling on to our streets.

Last weekend, I was racially abused while I was at my street stall surgery. I decided to report the incident to the police. The only other time that I have reported Islamophobia and racism towards me was when I was candidate in the 2019 election. I had handwritten letters from a resident who attacked me for my religion and race and I had online abuse, so the campaign team dealt with this and I never had to do it personally or without support.

This time I had to do the recount on my own. I wrote to my local ward officer first saying I didn’t want to report it, saying there was no point, and then explained what happened.

I don’t want to explain here all the gruesome details, but the ward officer was immediate and clear in his response. “This is racism, report it. I will send an officer to you now so we can get this logged.” I was actually shocked. His reaction made me realise how complacent I’d been to what I had experienced.

What had I done? I was accepting racism.

His support allowed me to take the steps to make an official report. As I everything down, I realised just how serious it was.

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Robin Stafford

The Green Book returns – the podcast goes live

By Robin Stafford | Wed 25th October 2023 - 4:36 pm

As trailed here, the team who gave us the Green Book some 10 years ago is launching a new podcast series, starting with an episode on the economy.

This is hugely important as concerns about the economy, be they low paid jobs, insecurity or our apparent inability to fund decent public services and infrastructure, are at the top of most people’s concerns.

We’re all well aware of the lack of investment in this country, both public and private which has led to this situation. However, the standard answer from most of our politicians has been ‘but there is no money’ – the excuse for the austerity of the last 13 years – which has only made things worse.  Meanwhile our debts, both personal and public, have just got bigger.

What’s needed is a different approach and a new way of thinking about political economy. So in this episode of Green Book Pod, we look at what has been done differently elsewhere, in particular in the USA where Biden is turning the economic approach of the last 20-30 years upside down, and we ask where the money might come from.

Joining us are three great guests:

Vicky Pryce who is a very well-known economics commentator, regularly on TV, radio and in the media. She is the Chief Economic Adviser at the Centre for Economics and Business Research and was joint head of the Government’s Economic Service.

Max von Thun was economic advisor to the party when Vince Cable was leader and is now the European director for the US based Open Markets Institute.  He brings good insights into what is happening in the US with Bidenomics, which is a real challenge to the economic assumptions of the last 20-30 years.

Richard Murphy who was one of the creators of the original Green New Deal and also the tax justice movement. He is a very active blogger on political economy, and has thought long and hard about government funding and where the money could come from.

Chairing the session is me,  Robin Stafford.  I have been supporting the party on economic matters over the last 5-6 years.

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Matthias Yip

What I’ve learned from my first conference

By Matthias Yip | Mon 23rd October 2023 - 2:53 pm

The last day of our LibDem conference on Tuesday 26th September, at the beautiful coastal town of Bournemouth, also marked the 1000th day in prison of the Hong Kong industrialist-turned-fast fashion-entrepreneur-turned-media tycoon Jimmy Lai. I still recalled the disappointment that China-UK relations wasn’t selected as the emergency motion on that exact day as that would be the perfect timing to submit my very first speaker card.

Jimmy Lai was almost the only billionaire in Hong Kong who dared to support the pro-democratic protest openly in 2019, He was also the owner/founder of the most influential newspaper ‘Apple Daily’ with the biggest circulation in Hong Kong at the time, whose editorial stance is, of course, pro-democracy and such ‘original sin’ of his won’t be forgiven by CCP.

He was a genius entrepreneur with a string of successful businesses. For example, before the word ‘fast fashion’ was invented in the Western World, his fast fashion label ‘Giordano’ was established in the 80s. It was so successful that even the founder of Uniqlo, Tadashi Yanai, now the richest man in Japan and the same age as Jimmy, went to meet Jimmy in Hong Kong to get inspired about the tricks of operation and the supply chain. At the time Uniqlo was still an unknown small business founded in Hiroshima that was in a bottleneck to break through. Despite the fact that Jimmy is a British citizen, we hardly ever hear any Tory officials (e.g. Cleverly) or media talking about it.

During the conference, I was so moved by the story of Lynne Featherstone on same sex marriage and I had no idea she is the hero who started it. However, an analogy on this would be Paddy Ashdown – our legendary LibDem leader who was actually the person who initiated the settlement rights of British National (Overseas) residents in Hong Kong.  However, HK BNO immigrants have no idea about this and they are mostly Tories by default (i.e. I am an outcast), rather like Cuban Americans. After this conference I feel I’m more prepared to approach my communities with the right message, especially with these ‘unsung’ heroes & ‘unheard’ stories for the general public.

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Mark Valladares

Welcome to my day: 23 October – Focus, Focus, Focus?

By Mark Valladares | Mon 23rd October 2023 - 8:15 am

I’ve been a bit busy for the past few days, as you’ll see later, although I have noticed that the comments thread on my early Friday morning post of the results from Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth has been busy – and I only really wrote that because, with a two hour time difference in my favour, I could at least write it with the benefit of some sleep.

There is always a danger of over-reaction to what was a bit of a disappointment. After all, after recent successes, it was too easy to believe that we could fly. But, we have hopefully learned some valuable lessons which, if properly applied, will make our General Election campaign more focused and more effective. It may also act to remind some of us that, just because one of our opponents is in utter disarray, that doesn’t mean that all we need to do is merely turn up to knock off a Tory MP. And, if you haven’t done the work yet, you might struggle to persuade others that you’re worth investing precious resources in.

I am reminded of “Cleggmania” in 2010, when our targeting discipline weakened in the face of promising poll numbers, and I’d rather prefer our final result next year to be seen as a success rather than something of a letdown.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 22nd October 2023 - 9:51 am

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin must be delighted by the Gaza Crisis.

It ticks a number of Moscow’s foreign policy boxes. For a start, it distracts the world from his war crimes in Ukraine and allows him to point the blame finger at America’s absolute support for Israel.

Russia’s Middle East policy is complicated. It supports Bashar al-Assad in Syria, but Putin also has a close personal relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He has used that relationship to stop Israel from sending weapons to Ukraine.

Russia has also refused to go along with most of the rest of the world in branding …

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John Kelly

Two sides to the story in the Middle East

By John Kelly | Sat 21st October 2023 - 5:53 pm

There have been some very good articles on the tragic events in the Middle East published by the Lib Dem Voice over the last two weeks, especially those by Leon Duveen,  and Ruvi Ziegler, both Israeli/British citizens and very active members of our Party.  I want to approach this from a different angle coloured by my own experience.  I have worked and travelled in Palestine and other parts of the Middle East and have been Vice Chair and/or Secretary of the Lib Dem Friends of Palestine since 2013. I helped draft the 2021 motion on Palestine that was overwhelmingly passed by Conference.  I have friends with families affected in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel – some tragically.

Like everybody else, I was shocked and saddened by what happened on 7 October in southern Israel, and I was equally saddened by the disproportionate response of the Israeli Government, which has already led to many more Palestinian deaths than resulted from the Hamas attack, including at least 1,500 children.  70-80,000 buildings have been destroyed including dozens of healthcare facilities and schools.  Aid workers from MAP, UNWRA and other human rights agencies have been killed as well.

I have welcomed the solidarity shown to the Jewish community in this country and with Israelis more generally.  It would be nice to see some of the same empathy towards the smaller but still significant Palestinian community here, and also to the 4 million strong Muslim community amongst whom there has always been strong sympathy for the beleaguered Palestinians, who are mostly Muslim and whose holy places have been treated with contempt by Israeli officialdom.  

However, I was sickened to see the affection shown by Joe Biden and then Rishi Sunak towards Benjamin Netanyahu on their recent visits, and by Sunak’s assurance that “we hope you win”.  Biden at least reminded Netanyahu of the Geneva Conventions and other aspects of international law which successive Israeli governments have claimed don’t apply to them.  There is a very good case for arraigning Netanyahu before the International Criminal Court in the Hague – and, of course, the same goes for the leaders of Hamas.  Our leaders should keep him at arm’s length as much as they possibly can. The same applies to people like President Sisi of Egypt, Mohammed Bin Salman and of course Bashar al-Assad.

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Leon Duveen

Yet another war in Gaza. What to do?

By Leon Duveen | Fri 20th October 2023 - 11:55 am

This is a very difficult post to write.  Yet again Palestine & Israel are at war and thousands on both sides have already or possibly will die.

After the attack by Hamas on Simchat Torah (October 7th), understandably, Israel is hurting, grieving and many there are angrily demanding action against the murderous terrorists who kill so many, kidnapped nearly 200 and wounded thousands.

But as we all know, it is not always possible to make good decision when you are angry, hurting, grieving, a cooler head is needed.

Hamas is not Palestine. It has held Gaza in a destructive dictatorship for over 15 years, inviting retaliation from Israel time after time, to strengthen its grip & generate propaganda.

Israeli Governments over the last 15 years has been willing enough to play this game, to pretend that peace is impossible, to trigger another round of violence when they need to win elections, until on Simchat Torah, the monster they cultivated became too powerful and acted in a way the Israeli security apparatus failed to anticipate.

So where does the conflict go now?

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Caron Lindsay

Reflections on Mid Bedfordshire

By Caron Lindsay | Fri 20th October 2023 - 9:15 am

I’m not going to lie. I’m disappointed this morning. Like many of you reading this, I wanted to wake up to Emma Holland-Lindsay becoming our 16th MP.

As a party we’ve put a huge amount of effort in to Mid Bedfordshire and we didn’t do it to become third. It’s a decent, double-our-vote third, not a squeezed till our pips squeak third, but even so, we’re allowed to feel a bit gutted.

Part of the reason I am so sad is that Emma is a huge talent and has been a magnificent candidate. I’ve heard of so many doorstep encounters where people knew who she was and really liked her.

She has spent pretty much the last year campaigning at full pelt. First of all to pull of her audacious gain in her Council ward with colleagues Chris Leaman and Shaun Roberts, and, since June, as by-election candidate. She should never, ever have to buy herself a drink at any Lib Dem event for the rest of her life.

Everyone who’s met her should add helping her get elected to Parliament one day to their to-do lists.

Emma, thank you for being one of the best by-election candidates we have ever had.  We have been very lucky this Parliament to have found such wonderful people to represent us.

While I can see the sense in the party’s messaging, that our surge in the villages took votes off the Tories and helped Labour over the line, none of us were put on this earth to help Labour win, so the fact that it rankles a bit is to be expected.

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Mo Waqas

The scent of a fresh Nakba

By Mo Waqas | Tue 17th October 2023 - 11:38 am

The scent of a fresh Nakba lingers in the air. Just a week ago, like so many others, I was taken aback by the unfolding events in Israel. It was a moment I could hardly fathom. At the time, I was going about my work in the home care industry, preparing breakfast for one of our clients. The background hum of the BBC, murmuring about Palestine, filled the room. I initially dismissed it as yet another minor incident and continued making scrambled eggs. However, when I finally turned my attention to the news, the gravity of the situation hit me. Israel’s sovereignty had been breached and defiled by Hamas – they had infiltrated through sea, land, and air, catching the Jewish state completely off guard.

I realised they lacked the capability to fend off such an assault for days. It was clear that Hamas was aiming to inflict harm upon Israel, and they ran rampant, causing havoc and tragedy. They took both combatants and non-combatants hostage, mercilessly targeting innocent people and turning a music concert into a bloodbath. Various online videos touted Hamas and its supposed adherence to Islamic values, which were clearly propagandistic. But do they truly comprehend Islamic principles during times of conflict? This brings to mind the 10 rules laid down by Caliph Abu Bakar: ‘Neither kill a child, nor a woman, nor an aged man. Bring no harm to the trees, nor burn them with fire, especially those which are fruitful. Slay not any of the enemy’s flock, save for your food. You are likely to pass by people who have devoted their lives to monastic services; leave them alone.’ One might argue that living by these tenets can be challenging in a world rife with collateral damage and predator drones. From the perspective of Israel, this may well be their 9/11 moment, prompting many prominent far-right commentators and politicians to urge Benjamin Netanyahu to dismantle Hamas. However, there’s often a blurred line between Hamas and Palestine in the eyes of many.

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Mark Pack

Mark Pack’s October report – let’s make it 5 in a row

By Mark Pack | Tue 17th October 2023 - 9:30 am

You know what would be even better than four record book rewriting Parliamentary by-election wins in a row? Five.

That’s the opportunity we have with the Mid Bedfordshire by-election and our great candidate, Emma Holland-Lindsay. The issues that are big on the doorsteps are ones that will be familiar to us from campaigning all around the country – people feeling taken for granted by the Conservatives, worried about the cost of living and angry about the state of the NHS. And they think sewage should be sent to treatment plants rather than into our rivers and onto our beaches.

Polling day is 19 October and it’s absolutely one of those contests where people on the ground, talking to voters and visiting their letterboxes, will determine the outcome. It might have been a rock solid safe Conservative seat in the past, but no more!

What Have the Liberals Ever Done For Us?

That’s the title of an excellent new publication from the Liberal Democrat History Group. It comes with a preface by Ed Davey in which he says, “When you need to put your feet up after door-knocking, or to energise yourself for the next delivery round, read it to remember what we stand for and what we have done with the votes that people have lent us – and be inspired to campaign for even greater achievements in the future.”

More information about the new booklet is here and you can watch the launch event with Layla Moran, Sarah Olney, Wendy Chamberlain and Liz Barker here.

Bournemouth Conference

Many thanks to everyone who helped make such a success of our autumn conference, especially everyone who has contributed to our pre-manifesto, For A Fair Deal. That now gives us both a clear up-to-date prospectus of our overall policies and also (in the second chapter) sets our clearly our vision for the country.

If you missed out on our conference – or want to relive moments of it – you can (re)watch all the action on our website.

Conference kindly agreed the Board report, confirming the appointment of Tom Hood to the Federal Appeals Panel (FAP), and also passed our motion on the party’s finances for the next year. This froze our minimum membership subscriptions in recognition of the cost of living crisis and also included an agreed settlement with our three state parties on our mutual financial positions.

Answers to questions for the Board that were not taken in person at Bournemouth due to the time limits will appear on the party website as part of the conference reporting.

Our Party Awards winners

One of the best parts of the President’s role at our conferences is handing out our Party Awards to recognise the work of amazing colleagues around the country.

Our Bournemouth winners were:

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review – 15 October 2023

By Tom Arms | Sun 15th October 2023 - 10:40 am

Ukraine

Lest we forget in the turmoil of the Middle East, there is an important war being fought in Eastern Europe. Russia has launched what appears to be a counter to the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Bitter fighting has been reported around the town of Avdiika.  Volodomyr Zelensky has said his men are holding their own, but it should be acknowledged that the Ukrainians have suffered heavy losses in their summer counter-offensive.

One of Ukraine’s biggest concerns is keeping the lights on. The Russian-controlled nuclear power plant at Zaporizhia supplied 48 percent of Ukraine’s energy needs. A significant chunk of the remainder of Ukraine’s electricity network was knocked out last winter by Russian missile and drone attacks. Much of it has been patched up in a fashion that would do Heath Robinson proud. But Ukrainians fear that their patched up energy infrastructure will collapse under another attack this winter. President Zelensky visited NATO HQ again this week to appeal for more air defences and jet fighters. One positive factor on the energy front, is that Ukraine is now plugged into the wider European grid, but that still does not supply all of its needs.

Nuclear weapons

Meanwhile, general relations between the West and Russia are expected to take another knock next week when the Russian Duma votes on whether withdrawal from the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. The vote is widely expected to be a resounding yes. The Russians have already withdrawn from the INF Treaty, START and New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Talks) and the Comprehensive Weapons in Europe Treaty. The test ban treaty is the last agreement to be scuppered in the mosaic of Cold War and post-Cold War treaties.

While the Russian parliament is voting, NATO will be conducting its annual nuclear exercise codenamed “Steadfast Noon”. It involves fighter jets capable of delivering nuclear weapons, although no such nukes will be on the planes. The exercise will be conducted over Italy, Croatia and the Mediterranean. Russia has already objected.

Polish Elections

Poland is on the political knife-edge this week as it prepares to go to the polls on Sunday. The stakes could not be higher. Opinion surveys put the ruling right-wing PiS (or Law and Justice) Party ahead, but without enough votes to form a government. Nipping at its heels is Civic Coalition, led by liberal centrist Donald Tusk, a former Polish Prime Minister and president of the European Council.

If PiS wins an overall majority—or is able to form a coalition with even more right-wing parties—then it will be their third successive government. This means that many of the policies that they have enacted will be almost impossible to reverse. These include a virtual ban on abortion, politicisation of the judiciary, increasing control of the media and academia and a curb on LGBTQ rights. Most recently the PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski announced that Poland was stopping military aid to Ukraine because it needed to restock its own weapons store.

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Tom Arms

Observations of an ex pat: Worst and much, much worse

By Tom Arms | Sat 14th October 2023 - 11:55 am

Too often the choice facing international decision makers is not between good and bad but between bad and worst. In the Middle East, at the moment, it appears to be between worst and much, much worse.

The possible consequences of the likely Israeli reaction to the attack by Hamas are terrifying and potentially global in their impact.

Let’s start with Israel itself. The overwhelming majority of Israelis are calling for massive retribution for a terrorist assault which left 1,300 dead, 3,300 injured and 150 held hostage in underground Hamas dungeons. It would be difficult for any Israeli government to ignore the public demands. For arch-conservative Benjamin Netanyahu it is nigh impossible.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has formed an emergency government of national unity. He has also called up Israel’s 350,000 reservists who will be added to the 150,000 Israeli troops on active service. The bulk of this force are already massing on the Gaza border waiting for the whistle to launch a ground offensive.

There will also be major deployments on the borders with Lebanon and Syria to prevent Hezbollah from joining the fray. And in the West Bank to control Palestinians there.

Massive and painful retribution appears inevitable. But what detailed form will it take and how will the world react? Gaza has been subjected to Israeli ground offensives and occupations in the past. These have resulted in a temporary reprieve. But each has been costly in military lives and cash expended. Neither has solved the long-term problem. Successive Israeli governments have failed to grasp the fact that oppression is not a long-term security solution.

This Israeli offensive is likely to be different. Already they have imposed a total blockade of Gaza. No food, water, energy, medicine or any goods of any kind are allowed into one of the most densely populated and impoverished strips of land in the world. A million residents in the northern half have been warned to immediately move to the southern part of Gaza, and all Gazans have been advised to leave their homes.

But they have nowhere to go. Their only other land border is with Egypt which has refused them asylum and has worked with Israel to enforce a long-term blockade. The possibility of a heavy handed response is very real. How the world reacts could result in fearful consequences.

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Stephen Harte

Struggling with complexity – the continuing crisis in Israel and Palestine

By Stephen Harte | Sat 14th October 2023 - 10:07 am

“For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”

I often think of these wise words when reading “hot takes” on social media on whatever issues are on the front page at a given time. As a lawyer, I tell my junior colleagues that the correct initial answer to any legal issue is often “it depends” and to distrust attempts to oversimplify the complicated.

As we have all grappled with yet more tragic news from Israel and Palestine, we have seen commentators and politicians often explain their thoughts by saying that the issues are “complex”. This is undeniably true but at the same time, though complexity should caution us against glib, easy answers, it should never be an excuse for failing to engage with rights and wrongs.

In my professional life, I engage with complicated legal issues by trying to break it down into constituent parts as much as I can. Through this I can sometimes get a greater understanding of the whole and, at the very least, it allows some answers to be agreed along the way. So this week, I have tried to do the same in my personal engagement with the situation in Israel and Palestine.

In doing so, like readers of this short article, I have tried to read widely. I have benefited from communicating with an Israeli friend living in Jerusalem and from reading the wisdom of our own Layla Moran MP – with her writing from the perspective of being the only British MP of Palestinian heritage while embracing a deep commitment to peace and justice in the Middle East for Israelis and Palestinians alike. I also spent time talking with a colleague who is passionate about the plight of the Palestinian people.

I struggle to say what I think about the totality of it all, but I can identify building blocks along the way where my personal view is clearer. I am not seeking to offer answers to everyone but rather I’m sharing my process in case that is helpful to anyone.

So, what do I believe?

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Katharine Pindar

Our party has nothing to lose by being bold now

By Katharine Pindar | Fri 13th October 2023 - 12:49 pm

It has seemed as if our party leaders may have been hanging back from committing the party to radical policies which we hold, such as the pledge to build 380,000 new houses, reasserted at the Bournemouth Conference after a Young Liberal amendment, and the policy passed at the Spring York Conference to tackle poverty in general and end deep poverty within ten years through the establishment of Guaranteed Basic Income.

Lack of commitment by the leadership to promote these policies, together with the announcement of ending our policy to add 1p on income tax to pay for investment in the NHS and social care, seem to suggest a fear of putting forward radical policies which will cost large amounts of taxation to implement.

The Labour Party seems to be holding back similarly on costly proposals, but it is understandable that they would fear Tory equating of them with the expensive policies of the former leader Jeremy Corbyn if they promote them, while pointing out that British citizens are already highly taxed. We have no such need to be silent.

The electorate is unlikely to be making any such comparison with our policies, which have been found to be properly costed in our previous Manifestos. People may instead well be disappointed not to have, both a clearer idea of Liberal Democrat policies, and especially, knowledge of those which sound most relevant to them.

Where our policies may coincide with Labour’s, moreover, perhaps they are borrowing our ideas: Sir Keir Starmer is now announcing a policy to build several New Towns, while Liberal Democrats already have a policy to build ten!  There are areas in which our policies may sensibly dovetail with theirs – possibly in the areas of NHS funding and development, where new plans are so much needed.

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Stuart Bourne

We need to be talking about allotments more

By Stuart Bourne | Fri 13th October 2023 - 10:01 am

They may not be sexy or glamorous, and they may rarely come up on the doorstep when talking to residents. Yet since the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis, the demand of allotments has skyrocketed, and we as a party need to start talking about them more.

Allotments have the potential to do so much to help some of the important issues facing our country. Growing our own fresh food dramatically reduces food miles and the carbon footprint of supermarkets. Studies have indicated that allotment sites vastly increase biodiversity, showing that they can increase insect populations by 70%.

Also, with our nation facing a health and cost-of-living crisis, what better way is there to resolve this with more people exercising on their allotments growing cheap healthy food? Allotment sites are a great catalyst for bringing communities together. Whatever your ethnicity, country of birth or age, I’ve seen them talking and chatting together, side by side as they work their plots. It’s getting to the point where I have trouble finding an issue that can’t be helped by having more allotments.

I undertook some research and talked to allotment holders in my local town of Medway, to see what the current state of the application process was, and the results were not great. In just the last 4 years, the waiting list has tripled. From 695 applicants in 2018, it has grown to 2009 in 2022, tripling in four years. The average waiting time for a person is now 2.5 years, and one person has waited 5 years. Speaking to allotment wardens, they say even though they have sped up the process of identifying disused plots and getting them to new tenants, the demand just keeps growing.

In 1971 the government introduced a recommended number of plots per household and councils still use this as benchmark today. It recommends 15 full sized plots per 1000 households. In Medway we have just 9 plots per 1000 households, so clearly Medway needs more allotment sites.

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Mike Tuffrey

Green Book is back!

By Mike Tuffrey | Thu 12th October 2023 - 11:59 am

LDV readers with long memories will know that ten years ago a group of us published The Green Book – New Directions for Liberals in Government.  We were urging the LibDems to adopt an approach to social and economic policy that put centre stage the need to preserve the natural world on which society and economy depends for its health, wellbeing and prosperity.

We’re back – and this time with a podcast series where external experts and party insiders explore the major challenges now facing the UK.  Future sessions on Green Book Pod will tackle climate change and then Europe, with more hot topics next year. Our first, launching our series later this month, focuses on the economic challenge.

Here’s a short trailer about the series and announcing our guests for the economics podcast:

 

Of course, since we published the original book a decade ago, the political context has changed radically … Britain’s exit from the European Union, the rise of populist and polarising forces here and elsewhere, the accelerating climate crisis, growing inequality, and much else.

Our belief remains, however, that there is a massive opportunity for the Liberal Democrats to set out an agenda for making a real difference – but only by identifying innovative, radical and robust solutions with realistic strategies to deliver them.  Our hope is this podcast series will help inform the party’s manifesto process too.

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Lord William Wallace

William Wallace writes: Making the case for Constitutional Reform

By Lord William Wallace | Thu 12th October 2023 - 9:44 am

Rishi Sunak has told the Conservative Party conference that British politics are ‘broken.’  That will make it more difficult for his party to resist changes in the way we do politics – constitutional reform, as we nerds put it.

It was the Conservatives that broke British politics, of course – or rather, populists inside and outside the party, cheered on by right-wing media (and American and Russian encouragement and funding) that swept aside established conventions on political behaviour and governmental restraint.  A major new report on political reform, jointly published by the Institute for Government and the Bennett Institute for Public Policy in Cambridge, notes the breakdown of constraints on executive behaviour, attacks on judges and the rule of law, attempts to bypass parliamentary scrutiny and the steady erosion of local government that has characterised the past eight years.

Four prime ministers since 2015, seven chancellors of the exchequer, nine secretaries of state for education – constant ministerial churn, changes in policy announced without much preparation or consultation and then reversed by the minister’s successor.  This single-party government has given Britain an object lesson in incompetent government.

The Conservative conference demonstrated how ungovernable the Conservative Party has become.  Liz Truss peddled her free market nonsense to a packed fringe meeting.  Ministers attacked policies that no-one had yet put forward. Danny Kruger, representing the American-influenced evangelical right wing, channelled conspiracy theories about the threat that climate change efforts were intended to bring ‘world government’.   Nigel Farage swanned round the conference, wearing his GB News pass: not a delegate, but a highly visible presence, benefitting like other right-wing populists from generous GB News funding.

Keir Starmer in his Labour conference speech almost echoed the prime minister.  ‘Our politics feels broken’, he declared; ‘we must win the war against the hoarders in Westminster, give power back and put communities in control.’  But beyond a reference to strengthening local government, he has said nothing specific about political reform beyond making it clear that he is opposed to changing the voting system.  He gives every impression that he intends to govern within the same centralised, executive-dominated structure the Conservatives have used and abused, with only minor adjustments to improve relations with the UK’s three devolved governments.

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Phoebe Winch 1931-2023

By Nick Winch | Wed 11th October 2023 - 11:55 am

There may be some LDV readers with elephantine memories who can recall Phoebe Winch who died last week in Bristol aged 92. 

Described by Tony Greaves as “an outstanding community politician” she joined the Liberal Party in the early 1960s after attending a Jo Grimond meeting and served the inevitable apprenticeship as membership secretary in a (then) derelict Surrey seat. In 1966 she moved to Dorset and started campaigning on local issues – rural bus subsidies and the like – and then led a successful campaign to stop Sherborne being moved from Dorset into Somerset under the proposals for local government reform. This provided the platform for her election as the first Liberal ever to sit on Sherborne urban District Council in 1971. Two years later she was elected to the reformed Dorset Council County beating the sitting Tory by a majority of 2 to 1 in an election with an astonishing 69% turnout. This was the first time a Good Morning leaflet and a blue letter had been used in Dorset, and while now old hat, their impact was astonishing. 

On the renamed Sherborne Town Council, she ensured the introduction of a Public Question Time at Council meetings and stopped the extraordinary tradition of holding Planning Committee meetings in secret! She became Sherborne’s first female Mayor in 1976 – ending something like a billion years of male domination. The sky did not fall in. 

She lost her County seat in 1977 (partly the result of a poor national result but also because she supported comprehensive education in a grammar school-dominated town) and resigned her town Council seat two years later in protest at the decision of the Town Clerk not to accept Focus Grumble Sheets as expressions of public views. “I will not sit on a Council which only listens to the middle classes writing on Basildon Bond paper” she said as she left the Council Chamber.

In 1980 she moved to Bristol and was agent for Don Foster in his first successful council campaign but turned to being an “inky-fingered Liberal” printing, she estimated, about 4 million leaflets over a period of 20 years.

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Suzanne Fletcher

Destitution and homelessness to increase

By Suzanne Fletcher | Tue 10th October 2023 - 4:30 pm

Draconian new rules are affecting asylum seekers in Home Office accommodation, and those who have been given leave to remain.

If given leave to remain it is a time for rejoicing for an asylum seeker. They are safe, they won’t have to be returned to the country they have fled from, and can begin a new life. But later in the day that the letter with good news is received, a whole set of new problems begin.

Up till August 1st they had twenty-eight days to find somewhere to live, find a job, and probably claim benefits. Even with the help of good friends and organisations, and a helpful local council it takes longer than twenty-eight days. Can you imagine if YOU were suddenly, with no warning, were expected to find a home for yourself and any family, and a way of supporting yourself? YOU who have maybe lived here all your life and have a good circle of friends, family and contacts?

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Ruvi Ziegler

The attacks on Southern Israel – a personal perspective

By Ruvi Ziegler | Mon 9th October 2023 - 10:15 am

This time, it’s personal. My nephew’s fiancé‘s family was in hiding all day in a small room in Kibbutz Magen in Southern Israel that was attacked by Hamas. They survived after fierce fighting. Others were not so fortunate. Hundreds of civilians were murdered, many of whom teenagers and young adults who were at an overnight rave and were machine-gunned.

Other civilians were taken hostage. The clips of an elderly woman and a gun-shot naked young woman being paraded by Hamas and cheered in the streets of Gaza are sickening. There is a video circulating which shows toddlers harassing a 3 year-old Israeli boy who is held hostage. A woman was taken hostage with her two very young daughters. A teenage girl was shown bleeding, hands tied behind her back, dragged out of a vehicle. You cannot watch this and not be repulsed.

And, of course, there are ongoing rocket attacks, in their thousands, directed at major civilian populations – not inadvertently or recklessly but deliberately seeking to cause civilian casualties.

This concerted attack on civilians in their homes and cities is vile; the responsibility lies squarely not just with Hamas, a proscribed organisation for good reason, but with its regional supporters.

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Mark Valladares

Welcome to my day: 9 October 2023 – “the train now arriving on platform 2 is an aspiration…”

By Mark Valladares | Mon 9th October 2023 - 7:45 am

It’s one of the most obvious things about a Government attempting to be populist that the things it does should be vaguely popular. There’s also an implication that they should get their messaging right as well.

And yet, this Government doesn’t seem to be terribly good at even something so simple, as demonstrated by this week’s announcement that HS2 was to be abandoned beyond Birmingham and the £36 billion supposedly saved would be spent on other projects. In principle, given that HS2 has been easy to attack due to overspends and a false prospectus – speed was merely a benefit, the …

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 8th October 2023 - 10:46 am

United States

The ripple effects following the ejection of Kevin McCarthy from the Speaker’s chair in the US House of Representatives are severe and wide-reaching. The issues most affected are moderates in the Republican Party, Ukraine and the credibility of the United States.

The mainstream of the Republican Party – or at least the congressional caucus – is not as unreasonably far-right as it is portrayed. Out of the 221 Republican members of the lower house, only 40 are signed up members of the right-wing Freedom Caucus. And of those, only about 20 could be considered extreme right by American standards.

The problem is that the Freedom Caucus – especially the far-right 20 or so members – are really a separate political party using the broad coattails of the Republican establishment to pursue policies which are antithetical to their own party. They can succeed in their aims because the Republicans’ majority as a whole is so narrow that the Freedom Caucus holds the balance of power.

In practice this means that the next Speaker could easily be Congressman Jim Jordan, a rabid Trump supporter and founding member of the Freedom Caucus. He has already secured the ex-president’s endorsement.

It also means that Ukraine will find it difficult to secure the next tranche of US military aid it has been promised. For the Freedom Caucus and Donald Trump the issue of self-determination and respect for the rule of law comes after support for Vladimir Putin.

The ejection of McCarthy also makes a US government shutdown almost certain.  It was McCarthy’s successful 11th-hour deal to prevent a shutdown which provided the straw that broke the back of the caucus camel. Any future Speaker will be all too aware that he will suffer the same fate if he allows Biden’s budget through Congress.

All of the above bolsters the belief that political divisions are rendering the US ungovernable. This in turn undermines credibility at home and abroad. America is the recognised standard bearer of world democracy. Alternative systems—especially Russia, China and Iran—argue that if democracy can’t work in America… then it can’t work.

Ukraine

Support for Ukraine this week suffered a blow on the European side of the Atlantic as well as the American.

It came in the form of an election victory for the pro-Russian Slovakian politician Robert Fico and his Direction-Social Democracy (or SMER-SD) Party. Fico’s party failed to win an outright majority in parliament, but with 24 percent of the votes it is the largest single party and is currently in coalition talks with smaller pro-Russian parties.

They have until 16 October to form a government and in the interim period have announced an end to all aid to Ukraine; a block on Ukrainian membership of NATO and an end to Slovakian support for EU sanctions against Russia.

Unlike most of the current batch of European populist parties, SMER-SD is left as opposed to right-wing. This, however, has not prevented Hungary’s populist right-winger Viktor Orban from welcoming Fico’s victory. Clearly common ground on the populist positions on the EU, Russia, gay rights, woke culture, immigration, media restrictions, curbs on the judiciary, sanctions and the war in Ukraine trumps the political spectrum issue.

This is not Fico’s first run at Slovak prime minister. He was initially elected to the job in 2012 with a whopping 83-seat majority. He was forced into coalition after the 2016 election and shortly afterward ran unsuccessfully for the presidency. In 2018 he was forced to resign as prime minister after the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak. He had been investigating the Slovakian mafia and police later linked Maria Troskova, Fico’s assistant, to the gangs.

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Tom Arms

Observations of an Expat: Pivotal Turkey

By Tom Arms | Sat 7th October 2023 - 9:44 am

Turkey is emerging as a pivotal country in the Ukraine War. As the fighting on land grinds to a bloody stalemate, the importance of naval power has dramatically increased.

As far as Ukraine and Russia are concerned this means the Black Sea and the Bosphorus and Dardanelles that links the sea to the wider world.  Turkey has control over these straits through a series of conventions dating back to the early 19th century.

Unsurprisingly, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is using his position to extract every possible concession from the Russians, Ukrainians and NATO.

At the start of the war the naval balance weighed heavily in Russia’s favour. The Ukrainians had one warship stuck in the repair yard. Moscow, on the other had its Crimea-based Black Sea fleet of 40 surface ships and seven submarines.

Putin used his naval superiority to good advantage. A successful amphibious landing was staged at Mariupol and the Sea of Azov and Kerch Straits were closed to Ukrainian shipping. Odessa and other southern Ukrainian ports were effectively closed by a Russian blockade, bombardment and minefield.

Then the Ukrainians hit back with shore to ship missiles and drones. The first major victim was the fleet flagship, the cruiser Moskva. Then the bridge connecting Russia to Crimea was bombed and now Russian naval installations on Crimea are under bombardment.

Putin badly needs to reinforce his Black Sea naval forces with ships from the Pacific, Baltic and Mediterranean commands. But he can’t. And the reason for this takes us back to the 19th  and early 20th centuries and Moscow’s perennially unsuccessful efforts to gain control of the Dardanelles and Bosporus.

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Michael Berwick-Gooding

Ending deep poverty by April 2029

By Michael Berwick-Gooding | Fri 6th October 2023 - 12:34 pm

At our Spring Conference in York we passed a policy which stated, we would ‘end deep poverty within the decade’.

This commitment has made it into the pre-manifesto passed at Bournemouth along with establishing ‘an independent commission to recommend annual increases in Universal Credit to achieve it’.

Also at York we passed that we would fundamentally reform the welfare system ‘by introducing a Guaranteed Basic Income by increasing Universal Credit to the level required to end deep poverty within the decade and removing sanctions’.

Ending deep poverty in the UK means ensuring that no-one has an income below the deep poverty level. Every year the Joseph Rowntree Foundation publish a UK poverty report. And on page 115 of this year report they set out the deep poverty thresholds:

Household type Deep poverty threshold (50% of median) weekly
Adult, with no children

 

 £137
Lone parent with two children, one 14 or over and one under 14

 

 £283
Couple with no children

 

 £236
Couple with two children, one 14 or over and one under 14

 

 £382

The current levels of Universal Credit for people over 25 are:

  • £85.09 a week for a single person and £133.57 for a couple.
  • Child benefit is £24 a week for the first child and £15.90 for each child after that.
  • The child elements of Universal Credit are £72.69 a week for the first child if born before 6th April 2017 and £62.21 for the second child.

This means that a lone parent with two children as above receives £259.89, which is £23.11 below the deep poverty line, and a couple with two children receives £308.37, which is £73.63 below the deep poverty line.

Our policy is to increase Universal Credit and the legacy benefits by £20 a week as soon as we are in government. If we then increased the single person’s rate by the rate of inflation in April 2025 and by £7.98 a week plus the rate of inflation every April thereafter, by April 2029 they would receive £137.01 in real terms. The couple rate would need to be increased by £20.61 a week for the four years after 2025, plus the rate of inflation, taking their rate to £236.01 a week in real terms.

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Yue He Parkinson

Don’t take freedom for granted

By Yue He Parkinson | Fri 6th October 2023 - 10:03 am

I attended the fringe meeting titled “Is International Liberalism dying? Persuading the world that the future is liberal” in the Autumn conference. One panel member expressed a sentence like this: “The reason the Global South countries are not cooperative with the West is so-called Liberal Imperialism.”

Coming from one of Global South countries – China – 19 years ago, I knew different answers, which could be the more realistic ones, yet have rarely been noticed by the West. Thanks to Rachel Smith’s encouragement, I raised my hand up for the first time in this conference, and got the attention of host Christine Jardine MP, to ask: “I am a British Chinese. I took 18 years to learn what freedom is after I moved here in 2004. The West has taken freedom for granted, my question is – Do the South counties who don’t know much about freedom have rights to pursue global fairness? ”

There were a few of the audience who gave me applause, yet stopped immediately, because of no more echoes.  My question didn’t get well received from the panels, the one who answered my question said: “Your question is not what we are talking about.” Yet from what I have seen, her attitude was exactly the problem – Western have taken democracy and freedom for granted.

When I studied International Relations at the University of Bristol, there are two major theories – Realism and Liberalism. The latter is based on the principle of individual liberalism in our party,  and was the leading theory representing then global positive cooperation atmosphere, economic globalization. I didn’t know Lib Dems then and thought Brits were all liberals. I corrected myself this year as I finally realized Labour and Tory both borrowed the idea of liberalism from the Lib Dems. We are the true liberals.

I am a different liberal though. I remember the first year I was in the UK;  a few Brits asked me a question: ‘’Why doesn’t China have democracy?’’. The attitude was like ‘”how come you don’t have such a easy political system?”. I spent my first 30 years in China before I immigrated to the UK. I have always known how impossible it is to have freedom in China. Sometimes people asked: ‘’Why don’t your people fight?’’. I was speechless, at that time I was equipped with a 1.0 generation (1.0 G) of immigrants’ mindset (Mainland Chinese mindset, I set Brits’ mindset as 2.0 G), had never been educated about civil society, never known what human rights are truly about,  let alone known about campaign action, all of which took me about 20 years to learn, until today.

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Mary Reid

New qualification to replace A levels and T levels?

By Mary Reid | Thu 5th October 2023 - 1:21 pm

So Rishi Sunak wants to replace A and T levels with a new qualification at 18. My first reaction was one of cautious approval – I have long argued that the post 16 curriculum needs to be broadened for all students. I also welcome any move to integrate so-called “academic” and “vocational” studies. Having taught, and written text books for, a subject that crosses those boundaries (Computing) I know how artificial that binary approach is.

There has been some opposition – allegedly – to broader studies from the Universities, who, it is claimed, expect students to have already reached a certain level of proficiency in their chosen subject before starting on a degree course. They claim that they can offer shorter degrees than in other countries because schools will have already provided foundation degree teaching.

That argument rather falls down in many subjects when looked at in detail. For example, a student starting on a history degree will not be expected to have studied every period of British and world history at A level – they will have studied specific periods and themes in detail. Instead they should arrive with an understanding of historical research and perspectives.

Even in my own subject, Computing, there were quite wide variations between the syllabuses of the A Level Exam Boards, and in any case, students are not required to have studied it before embarking on a degree. In fact, many degrees have no specific requirements but are looking for generic competences such as problem solving, research skills and creativity, which are exactly what a broader curriculum should equip them with.

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Paul Reynolds

Rivers of Blood Mark II

By Paul Reynolds | Thu 5th October 2023 - 11:12 am

There has been a lot of publicity this week about Tory factionalising and Home Secretary Suella Braverman’s apparent positioning for the party leadership, after the Tories’ expected 2024 GE loss of power.

However, there has been a lot of muddle in the media about which faction proposes what and why. What is really going on ? Clearly if Braverman’s far right platform is to be opposed, what exactly are we opposing ?

The start point is to remember that the jostling of Tory MPs is missing the point. The competition is between different sets of interests, which MPs attach themselves to in order to advance politically. Each set of interests has their own narrative (sincere or not) as to why the UK is seemingly in steep decline and why the Tories are currently unpopular.

There is a group of interests that broadly revolve around international finance, the City and global investment groups. They support privileges for investment banks and are unfussed about monopolies, or high state debt. Sunak vaguely might be placed here.

There is a Thatcherite free market group supported by industry and commercial interests; many being victims of monopoly and fiscal problems. Folks might put Liz Truss in this group.

There is a small military-orientated group, and a small social libertarian group which are both rather limp politically.

Braverman is closer to the expanding Neo-Conservative group, supported by think tanks in Washington DC. They are unfussed about BOTH markets and monopoly finance, sanguine about fiscal risks, and are supported by groups linked to global wars of choice, and by US/UK armaments interests. It is funded via opaque donation intermediaries (although leaks have shed light on the actual international donors).

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