Yesterday Jim Coupland offered us his election predictions. Here is his follow-up.

Well, it’s done. We’ve seen the overall results of the local elections and what a brilliant result for us Liberal Democrats! Congratulations to all the fantastic Liberal candidates and members for their hard work and success on the campaign. As I said in my prior prediction, Reform made massive gains, and we made considerable gains too. Conservatives are the biggest losers and the public’s current view of the Labour government has been delivered… and they’re not happy.

Of course, these are only the local elections and the big one (the general election) is a few years away. However, these are important elections for three reasons:

1. People mainly vote on national issues

Did Reform make all these gains because they had detailed policy on bins, parks and potholes? Of course not. The public, unfortunately, feel that Reform has the right answers to the national issues and are dissatisfied with the status quo. People, whether you define their votes as a protest vote or not, want change.

2. Local issues

At the same time, local issues matter. These elections are a form of direct democracy that affect our lives. We Liberal Democrats are rightly impassioned by local politics. We wear Kemi Badenoch’s church roof insult as a badge of pride, the more Liberal councillors the better.

3. Two party politics is over

The calls for proportional representation in Westminster should and will be bigger. People are fed up with Labour and the Tories, they want something different.

Going Forward

So, going forward, what do all these results mean? Where should we go as a party from this? Yes, we had a successful campaign, and we made net gains but where do we want to be after the next general election? We know that with first past the post, we can’t win the general election. That is a fantastical thought. I feel that in the long run, what we should aim for is another coalition. That would mean we, at least, have roughly the same number of MPs in the commons and rely on Labour making enough losses where they would need us to stay in Downing Street.

I’m challenging myself with a prediction of how the local elections will pan out. Admittedly, I don’t quite have the time or energy to go through each ward of each council up for election in England and estimate who I think will win. However, what I will predict is the general overview of each party and how they will fair nationally. Do they make net gains or losses? What will be the spin on their reflections of their results? Will it have a big impact in British politics over the coming year? For clarity, to make a good prediction, I will have to take my Liberal hat off and look at everything objectively.

Gains and Losses

Overall, the party I believe will have the most gains are… Reform UK. Why? Unfortunately, there are two reasons. Firstly, the national polls. Reform UK have been polling at virtual tiebreak with Labour, with the latest MRP poll showing that Reform would be the largest party in Westminster if a general election were to be held today. It is quite unusual to see a party (other than Labour or the Conservatives) be near the lead in the polls. Also, with the huge membership drive in their ranks, they have an impassioned base with many candidates and members on their campaign trail. 

Of course, there is the debate over whether national polls matter in local elections. Don’t voters vote on local issues? I’m sure there are and I’m sure that it will have some effect in certain areas. When the Tories held onto Uxbridge and South Ruislip in the by-election a couple of years ago, it did buck the national trend in the polls. However, in my opinion, the majority will vote on national issues. When they see the party logos on the ballot paper, they don’t think about potholes or bins (unless you’re in Birmingham), but they think of what they see of the parties today. They see what the government are doing, and the people are not happy.

Secondly, Reform UK in numbers, have nothing to lose. The seats are from the 2021 cycle, which the Conservatives overwhelmingly won. They are taking the right-wing vote, and they will make many gains in these circumstances.

Moving onto the Liberal Democrats, I think we will make some modest net gains. Aiming to be the party of ‘Middle England’ is a smart strategy where we can gain some further ground from the Tories. So far, a smooth campaign from Sir Ed Davey and avoiding any major blunders, I think it will be a successful campaign… fingers crossed!

Labour will make losses. Unlike 2021, incumbent governments have struggled in local elections and Labour has certainly lost support since the election win last year. There is plenty of fertile ground for Reform UK to make gains from Labour too, especially areas like Runcorn and Helsby where a by-election is taking place.

The Conservatives best brace for themselves. I am sure Kemi Badenoch is having nightmares right now, picturing the scenes of despair. Crestfallen colleagues in parliament, Tory councillors losing their jobs and the headlines. Oh, the headlines… I bet Robert Jenrick and James Cleverly are rubbing their hands in glee. With the Tories currently losing to Reform UK in the polls, hardly being mentioned in the news (for now) shows that the country do see Reform being the ‘real’ opposition to Labour and voters have not yet forgiven the Tories on their record in government and there are plenty of seats to lose. This election could not have come at a worse time for her.