Tag Archives: china

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 24th May 2026 - 10:23 am

The Thucydides Trap

There has been much talk recently about the “Thucydides Trap”. China’s President Xi Jinping is reported to have warned Donald Trump during his recent trip to Beijing that China and America were heading straight for the “Thucydides Trap.”

So what is it? It is a term coined by the diplomatic historian Graham Alison in his book “Destined for War.” Allison uses Thucydides’ history of the disastrous Peloponnesian War between Sparta (the established power) and Athens (the rising power) to argue that when one power becomes to challenge the hegemony of an existing power then war is inevitable.

It is not quite. In the 1920s the American military was drawing up plans for a war against Britain. The plan was called War Red. The plan involved a major land invasion across the border into Canada and a naval attack on British colonies in the Caribbean.

Britain had a counter-attack plan, but its plan was not as comprehensive. Fairly early on it realised that its war-ravaged economy could not win a war against the rising American industrial giant. There were other important factors. These included the two countries’ shared experience of World War I. There was also the fact that a 300-year-old shared cultural experience and perspective outweighed the competitive aspects of the relationship. The British increasingly saw themselves as the Greeks to America’s Rome, as Harold Macmillan later put it.

“War Plan Red was one of the rare cases where strategic rivalry did not culminate in war. Alison gives 12 examples of how countries became victims of the Thucydides Trap. They include the Crusades, the Franco-Prussian War, World War One and World War Two. War Red is listed—along with three others—as the exceptions that prove the rule.

Cultural links ensured that War Red did not become a disastrous reality. But China and America lack the deep cultural, linguistic and historical ties that softened the transfer of power from Britain to the United States.

Ebola

Ebola is a terrible disease. It attacks your internal organs. You bleed from the inside out. Death is painful and quick.

In much of Africa it is customary to wash the bodies of corpses before burial. The practice can be fatal as the disease is spread through contact with infected bodily fluids. They remain contagious long after death.

In the last outbreak, 2014-2016, 11,300 people died. The epidemic was contained to West Africa because Britain and America flooded the region with health workers and soldiers. The UK committed more than $500 million to fight the epidemic. America sent 3,000 people to fight the disease.

It worked. The doctors and nurses won. Not only that but systems were put in place to effectively detect and fight any further outbreaks. Then came Trump in America and Boris Johnson in Britain. Aid budgets were slashed. Three thousand staff were cut from America’s Centre for Disease Control. The biggest axe fell on the departments involved in fighting overseas epidemics. The situation was almost as bad in Britain.

The epidemic fighting network that was established a decade ago was badly weakened. Especially hard hit were the surveillance systems which are designed to detect the first signs of the disease, contain it and treat it. Britain has so far committed only $30 million to fighting the latest outbreak. America has made promises but little has materialised. Oxfam says that coordination meetings now produce “blank stares” when money is requested.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged donald trump and ebola | 7 Comments

Observations of an expat: Dangerous diplomatic chess

By Tom Arms | Sat 23rd May 2026 - 10:15 am

In the wake of his Beijing sojourn, Donald Trump is embarking on a dangerous and complex game of diplomatic chess with Taiwan as the piece most likely to be sacrificed for the greater American good.

While in China, Trump became convinced what the rest of the world has known for some time. China cannot be bullied. Threats of escalating tariffs and civilisational extinction just roll off the Chinese political back. They have been around a long time and have seen it all.

Next, China is as much of a superpower as the United States. And, if he is going to avoid an Armageddon-like nuclear war, he has to learn to live on the same planet with Beijing instead of baiting and containing it.

Finally, the American president is almost certainly convinced that Xi Jinping is sincere when he says that China wants Taiwan and any American attempt to block a Chinese takeover could easily lead to a Sino-American “clashes and even conflict.”

The three-way dilemma of China-US-Taiwan dates back to before President Nixon’s historic visit to China. It has been resolved with the famous “strategic ambiguity” which was designed to deter war by making the Chinese uncertain about US intervention.

Trump doesn’t do ambiguity. He does transactions. The Taiwan issue presents him with an opportunity to use his much-hyped negotiating skills to pull off one of the great transactions of all time. A tempting prospect which ego would find difficult to resist.

But with whom and how?

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged donald trump | 2 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 19th April 2026 - 11:44 am

China

The invisible hand of Beijing has been busily pulling the backstage strings to try and organise Iran War peace talks.

Pakistan—which has been the lead country in mediation country—is a close ally of China and is clearly coordinating Its honest broker activities with Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi who prefers to remain in the shadows.

Economically China desperately needs an end to Trump’s War. Ninety percent of its oil comes from Iran and, as the world’s second largest economy, China needs global stability to maintain growth.

At the same time, Chinese President Xi Jinping must be smiling to himself as Donald Trump entangles himself in a needless Middle East war which distracts him away from the Chinese priorities of Taiwan, the Philippines and the South China Sea. It also enables him to project China as a nation of calm reasonableness compared to an America run by an erratic president committed to riding roughshod over international law and conventions.

But what China does not want to do is be seen to be actively involved in discussions about the Iran War. This week a host of visitors including the Spanish prime minister and the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi visited Beijing to try to persuade Xi Jinping to offer direct mediation.

Tehran, for its part, has called on China to guarantee its security. The Chinese have the facilities to do the job. They have a naval base around the corner in Djibouti on the Red Sea. Even closer is their port of Gwadar near in Pakistan near the Iranian border. It is currently used exclusively for commercial purposes, but it could be quickly adapted to military use.

But China’s rulers have looked at the sad experiences of the US and concluded that they have little desire to commit their military to the risk of being dragged into a costly war that will undermine their own strength and brand.

Behind the scenes, backstage, quiet diplomacy—yes. Anything more, No, for fear of being blamed for any failure. And where the Middle East is concerned, failure is the name of the game.

Hungary

It is now time for the big Hungarian clean-up. The new prime minister, Peter Magyar has promised just that, and he has a comfortable super majority to achieve it.

But it will not be easy, Orban has packed the media, industry and academia with his cronies. They have all said they would construct legal obstacles to dislodge them, and the courts have also been filled with Fidesz supporters.

From a foreign perspective Magyar’s biggest challenge will be clawing back funding for the Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC). The MCC poses as an educational institute but in reality, is the main financial vehicle for funding an international far-right network of institutions, political parties, pressure groups and think tanks.

The funds for MCC come from shares in Hungary’s massive state-owned energy company MOL. Orban organised a transfer of a large bloc of MOL shares to MCC. They in turn have sent funds to the Reform Party in UK, AfD in Germany, the National Rally in France and Vox in Spain. MCC also helps to finance the Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC)

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged donald trump, hungary, pope leo xiv and the vatican | 1 Comment

New Chinese spy case and our Defending Democracy policy draft

By Nicholas Chan | Thu 5th March 2026 - 1:38 pm

Wednesday’s disturbing news on UK democracy interference is the Met’s arrest and a new Chinese espionage case. Among the suspects is the spouse of an MP.

Nigel Farage — the leader of a party with a senior member convicted for aiding Russia — has rushed to attack Labour and Keir Starmer. To rebut this hypocrisy, we must press ahead with our efforts to get the Government to place China in the Enhanced Tier of the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme (‘FIRS’) in the planned Democracy Bill.

We must not only defend our democracy from foreign interference; we must also keep our community informed about the scale of Chinese interference activities in the UK. Reform seeks to undermine trust in our institutions through mocking statements. By contrast, our push for China’s placement on the Enhanced Tier under FIRS will strengthen democratic participation by improving safeguards and raising public awareness.

It should also require Ministers and relevant officials to brief elected representatives on the extent of China’s foreign interference in the UK. That could mean stronger scrutiny of the China Audit (see my previous article), or transparency about which overseas Chinese “community aid” groups are facilitated by the United Front Work Department.

Placing China in the Enhanced Tier of FIRS does not intrude on individual liberties. On the contrary, it protects civil liberties by increasing transparency around institutions, software, and social media platforms that serve the Chinese party-state. With an Enhanced Tier mechanism, we can better understand the breadth and depth of the Russia–China—and, to an extent, Iran—bloc that spreads disinformation, fuels populist far-right sentiment, and channels political donations.

We must also show that the Liberal Democrats are the true safeguard of Britain’s resilience—by building a stronger Europe—rather than Reform’s pandering to a unilateral Trump-style America.

Posted in Op-eds | Leave a comment

Observations of an Expat: Four-sided Asia Conflict

By Tom Arms | Sat 22nd November 2025 - 9:42 am

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has re-ignited the tense Sino-Japanese relations that underscore the region’s volatile politics.

The roots of these tensions go back centuries and will doubtless last for centuries more. At the moment the main players are China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan with America playing an important peripheral role.

Korea and Japan have a long history involving cultural links, wars and cruel colonisation. According to many historians, the Japanese imperial family originated in Korea. It is a fact that many prominent Japanese have Korean genetic roots.

Much of Chinese culture reached Japan through the Korean Peninsula. This included Buddhism, Chinese writing, laws, government models, horsemanship, metallurgy, iron-working, architecture, construction and agricultural techniques.

From the Japanese point of view, Korea offered an invasion route into China. In the 16th century the Japanese fought a four-year war against Korea and were only defeated when the Chinese joined the fight on the side of the Koreans.

Then, of course, there is the Japanese colonial period from 1910 to 1945 with the bitter Korean memories of slave labour and “comfort women.”

Korea also has its problems with China with whom it has had a long on-off relationship which for centuries involved tributes and recognition of Chinese suzerainty. A key element in Korean foreign policy (north and south) is summed up by the word “sadae” which is interpreted as “serving the great” which in turn means that Korea will always prioritise good relations with China to secure protection and legitimacy.

Taiwan is a relatively more recent issue for both China and Japan. Its indigenous inhabitants—Austronesians—are neither Japanese nor Chinese. They are genetically and linguistically related to the Filipinos and Indonesians. It wasn’t until the 16th century that the Chinese started to take a peripheral interest in the island. Then the Dutch arrived and called it Formosa. This spurred the Ming Dynasty to action. They booted out the Dutch and shortly afterwards formally annexed the island.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged japan, korea and taiwan | 3 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 16th November 2025 - 10:28 am

United States

The Epstein Files story is reaching a climax. Emails released by the estate of paedophile and convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein have mentioned Donald Trump’s name, but little more than that.

However, the pathway to the more extensive FBI files on Epstein is now clear. Congresswoman Adelita Grijalva was sworn in this week and immediately cast the deciding vote in favour of releasing the Epstein files. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson now has seven legislative days to “ripen” the issue. He then has an additional two days to schedule the vote.

The necessary legislation will have no problem passing the lower house. A simple majority is needed and it is reckoned that up to 100 Republican congressmen will vote in favour of release.

Many of them are facing constituents who voted for Trump in the belief that he would release the files as promised. They are angry that there appears to be a cover-up in the service of rich elites. Other representatives do not want to be seen as participating in a cover-up, especially with the threat of even more damaging information to come.

If it passes the House then it goes to the Senate. There may be a problem there as it needs 60 out of the 100 votes to pass. Senators are not as vulnerable to the whims of the electorate as they face re-election every six years whereas those in the House of Representatives go before the electorate every two.

The final hurdle is the president. He can veto the release of the files. But if he did it would be tantamount to an admission of guilt and would almost certainly be overturned by a two-thirds vote in Congress.

China

In the past six weeks Xi Jinping has purged China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of nine senior generals and admirals and several handfuls of lower officer ranks.

The stated reason is corruption. And there is no doubt that China has a problem with senior military figures on the take. It has had the problem for years with officers being purged after police raided their homes to discover refrigerators and microwaves stuffed with cash, jewels and valuable works of art.

But the quantity and quality of the latest purge victims indicates that at least in some cases the corruption charge could be a cover for political disloyalty.

General He Weidong, for instance, was not just a general. He was also vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission and a member of the ruling Politburo. The charges against him were corruption and “loss of chastity.”

The latter phrase has nothing to do with celibacy—or lack thereof—but political chastity or loyalty to the Party line.

In today’s China the interests of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are being increasingly conflated with the interests of Xi Jinping. Thus lack of loyalty to Xi is the same as disloyalty to the Party and disloyalty to the Party is disloyalty to the country.

The CCP has long operated on the principle that “the Party commands the gun”. Xi seems deeply concerned that the military remain absolutely loyal to him and the CCP, not just as an institution. Corruption purges within the PLA have been driven not just by efficiency concerns but by loyalty/political control.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged COP30, donald trump and united states | 9 Comments

Observations of an Expat: China’s Environmental Paradox

By Tom Arms | Sat 15th November 2025 - 9:25 am

China is both the world’s biggest environmental villain and – paradoxically– the greatest hero when it comes to the development and export of green renewable energy.

The Middle Kingdom is the world’s biggest emitter of CO2 gases—more than the US, India and EU combined. It burns more coal than the rest of the world combined and it continues to build coal-powered plants.

But at the same time it produces 80 percent of the world’s solar panels; 70 percent of lithium-ion batteries, 65 percent of the world’s wind turbines and the world’s most affordable electric vehicles.

China has vast resources of dirty coal and very little oil or gas. So when the Chinese Communist Party decided to go all out for industrial growth it made economic sense to exploit the energy on its doorstep. So it turned first to coal and then to imported oil and gas.

But by the early 2000s the Party leadership came to the realisation that the growing dependence on imported oil meant energy insecurity. Also the burning of coal and growing number of cars was creating dangerous pollution levels. Finally, they saw that the next big industrial revolution would be “Green.”

About the same time Europeans and large slice of Americans were also investing in renewable energy. Western governments were starting to provide tax breaks and other subsidies. China, however, has a command economy. So, it didn’t just subsidise green tech companies. The Chinese leadership made the decision to rebuild the country’s entire industrial base around renewable energy.

There were massive subsidies for solar, wind, electric vehicles, and batteries. Free or cheap land was provided for green industries. The state banks offered low-interest and local governments provided tax breaks and cash incentives.

Heavy emphasis was given to national dominance of the supply chain. So development went from mining of rare earths to development of batteries to production of electric cars. No country had ever industrialized a clean-energy sector at that speed.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged green energy | 3 Comments

16 October 2025 – today’s press releases

By Mark Valladares | Thu 16th October 2025 - 10:52 pm

Lib Dems say China witness statements raise “more questions” than they answer and call for statutory inquiry
Hospices: Govt must reverse NI hike to deliver real change
GDP growth: Govt must kickstart growth and “quit slowcoach approach”
Lib Dems: Summon US ambassador over secretive meetings with Farage on rolling back women’s rights in UK
If China is a “daily threat” then “insane” not to cancel super-embassy, say Lib Dems
Chinese embassy plan must be “put out of its misery”

Lib Dems say China witness statements raise “more questions” than they answer and call for statutory inquiry

Responding to the Government publishing evidence regarding the collapsed China spy case, Liberal Democrat Foreign Affairs Spokesperson, Calum Miller MP, said:

These witness statements are only part of the puzzle and raise yet more unanswered questions.

Did emphasising the government’s desire for a positive relationship with China effectively cause this trial to collapse? What evidence was the CPS requesting which the government failed to provide?

And who was aware of these statements and the evidence being asked for both among ministers and in Number 10?

We clearly need a statutory public inquiry to get to the bottom of this whole fiasco.

Hospices: Govt must reverse NI hike to deliver real change

Commenting on the Government’s announcement on hospice funding, Liberal Democrat Care and Carers spokesperson Alison Bennett MP said:

While this announcement goes some way to help children’s hospices, it entirely ignores the profound issues in funding adult hospices. The Government must go much further to deliver the real change hospices are crying out for.

For starters, to have any chance of tackling this ticking time bomb, the Government must reverse their cruel National Insurance hike that cost hospices £34 million last year, and make sure funding keeps pace with local need.

For too long, the vital role played by hospices in our health and care system has been overlooked. The Liberal Democrats are campaigning to save the nation’s hospices. Everybody should have access to the very best palliative care, and to dignity at the end of life. This will never happen while government ministers are burying their heads in the sand.

GDP growth: Govt must kickstart growth and “quit slowcoach approach”

Responding to the news that GDP only grew by 0.1% in August, Daisy Cooper, Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesperson, said:

Today’s figures show the economy climbing slower than a sloth under a government simply not doing enough to kickstart growth.

The Chancellor must quit her slowcoach approach to the economy and finally drop her damaging national insurance hike, which has stifled business and hit high streets up and down the country.

The Government must take today’s news as a wakeup call and put an ambitious growth plan front and centre of their Budget later this Autumn – starting with a bespoke new UK-EU customs union which would unleash the potential of British exporters to trade more easily with our European neighbours.

Lib Dems: Summon US ambassador over secretive meetings with Farage on rolling back women’s rights in UK

The Liberal Democrats have called on the Government to summon the US Ambassador to explain why the US embassy in London held secretive talks with Nigel Farage on rolling back women’s rights and online safety laws in the UK.

Posted in News and Press releases | Also tagged alison bennett, calum miller, daisy cooper, Embassy, gdp, hospice care, nigel farage, spying, trump administration and womens rights | 1 Comment

15 October 2025 – today’s press releases

By Mark Valladares | Wed 15th October 2025 - 10:45 pm

Budget rumours: Reeves must rule out “cloak and dagger” efforts to drag people into paying more tax
China case: Lib Dems call for release of all legal advice — including evidence needed for spy case to proceed
Angus MacDonald MP calls for common sense on rural helipads
Murray presses PM over small business national insurance in East Dunbartonshire

Budget rumours: Reeves must rule out “cloak and dagger” efforts to drag people into paying more tax

Responding to Rachel Reeves admitting there may be more tax rises in this autumn’s Budget, Daisy Cooper, Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesperson, said:

Millions of people up and down the country are worried they could face more damaging tax hikes, after the Conservative party saddled them with a stealth tax and this Government hit them with an unfair jobs tax.

Prolonging this uncertainty for weeks will leave people deeply worried about what this could mean for their payslips and bills.

Rachel Reeves must rule out a cloak-and-dagger effort to raise revenue by extending the Conservatives’ stealth tax and dragging even more working people into higher tax rates. What we need is a proper growth plan and for the big banks, social media giants and gambling companies to pay their fair share of tax.

China case: Lib Dems call for release of all legal advice — including evidence needed for spy case to proceed

Following the Prime Minister’s announcement of his plan to publish the witness statements by the deputy national security adviser on the China case, the Liberal Democrats are now calling on the Government to put the full legal advice they received on the public record.

The party is calling for the Government to publish advice including on what evidence would be needed for the spy case to proceed.

Daisy Cooper, Liberal Democrat Deputy Leader, said:

The public have had enough of the constant blame game between the Conservatives and Labour on the collapse of the China spy case.

The Government must bolster their publication of witness statements and put all the legal advice they’ve received on this case on the public record – including advice on what evidence would be needed for this trial to go ahead.

Number 10 must also urgently launch an independent inquiry so we can finally get to the bottom of what actually happened in this labyrinthine case.

Angus MacDonald MP calls for common sense on rural helipads

Angus MacDonald, MP for Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire, has called on the UK Government to cut through “bewildering” red tape that has stopped search and rescue helicopters from landing on community helipads in rural areas.

While leading a Westminster Hall debate on Access to Community Helipads in Rural Areas, Mr MacDonald raised the case of the Portree and Braes Community Trust helipad, which serves the north end of Skye, including the local hospital. Despite being purpose-built and refurbished to high safety standards, search and rescue helicopters operated by Bristow are not currently able to land there.

Posted in News, Press releases and Scotland | Also tagged Angus MacDonald, daisy cooper, national insurance contributions, rural healthcare, spying, stealth taxes and susan murray | Leave a comment

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 12th October 2025 - 8:30 am

To lose one prime minister is considered careless. To lose two is incompetence. Three is starting to look like a crisis of leadership. Five in two years is beyond comprehension.

Such is the sad tale of French president Emmanuel Macron as Sebastien Lecornu leaves the Hotel Matignon even before he has a chance to deliver his inaugural address to the National Assembly.

The root of Macron’s evils is, of course, money. But it is further complicated by the thirst for power by France’s far left and far right and the president’s inability to communicate the necessity of living within one’s means.

France desperately needs a budget which reduces its burgeoning debt burden. The country is Europe’s biggest spender relative to its economic output. Its debt burden is just behind the financial disasters that are Greece and Italy. The markets are so concerned about instability that they are increasing the interest which only pushes the debt burden higher.

Raising taxes to make ends meet appears to be out of the question as the tax burden at 45.6 percent of GDP is the highest in Europe.

A step towards balanced books was made in 2023 when Macron pushed through the National Assembly a gradual seven year rise in the pension age from 62 to 64. This, however, looks like it might have to be at least partially sacrificed in order to push through a total budget package by the end of the year deadline.

Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally and a coalition of left-wing parties are refusing to allow ANY budget to pass. They smell the opportunity of forcing a snap election which could result in their winning more seats and possibly forcing Macron out of the Elysee Palace before the next scheduled presidential elections in 2027.

Macron is equally determined to avoid an election. The result of the snap election he called in 2024 was a disaster for the president’s Renaissance Party. The result is that Macron has become toxic within his own party.

His approval ratings are a dismal 14 percent and two of his previous prime ministers—Edouard Phippe and Gabriel Attal—have distanced themselves from their supposed leader.

Germany’s far-right AfD party has a dilemma. It is pro-Russian. It is also anti-Ukraine and anti the war in Ukraine.

At the same time it is pro-jobs because the eastern third of the country (the former East Germany) is starved of industry. That is why it has become a political stronghold for the populist party. Desperate people turn to desperate politics.

The centre-right government of Friedrich Merz has an answer: base a large portion of the new defense industries needed to provision the Ukrainians in the AfD strongholds in the East.

One is already being established in the town of Gorlitz in Saxony on the German-Polish border. The former Alsom plan manufactured railway carriages for 178 years. But over the past ten years it has been sliding into bankruptcy and threatening to further inflate the town’s 9.8 percent unemployment level.

A major proportion of the workforce at the railway manufacturers was skilled welders. Welding is a well-paid trade and welders are needed to make tanks. The result is that the former railway carriages factory is being converted into a tank production centre and jobs are being saved.

Other defense plants are being considered elsewhere in the East in Grobenhain, Thuringia and Brandenburg.

AfD politicians are reluctantly supporting the job creations while at the same time deploring the end product of the jobs created. They must also be concerned that satisfied workers will be less inclined to support extremist political solutions.

China’s Xi Jinping is preparing for his meeting with Donald Trump later this month by tightening export controls on rare earth mineral exports.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged france, germany and horn of africa | 6 Comments

8 October 2025 – today’s Federal press releases

By Mark Valladares | Wed 8th October 2025 - 9:30 pm

Kemi Badenoch Speech: Lib Dems blast Tory economics as “laughable”
China spies case: Investigation needed on if Govt is doing enough to protect our democracy and national security
NHS/US Drug Price Increases: Ministers must come clean
Ed Davey urges One Nation Conservatives to join Lib Dems after Kemi Badenoch’s conference speech
Badenoch Speech: “Liz Truss on steroids”

Kemi Badenoch Speech: Lib Dems blast Tory economics as “laughable”

Responding to the Conservatives’ unveiling a new set of economic plans, announced by Party Leader Kemi Badenoch in her keynote speech today, a Liberal Democrat Spokesperson said:

The idea that the public would now trust the Conservative party with the economy is laughable. From almost crashing our economy to leaving public services on their knees, the Conservatives have shown their economics is almost as bad as their spelling.

Only the Liberal Democrats have a clear plan to make our economy thrive again, from halving energy bills to striking an ambitious trade deal with our European neighbours which would boost business and raise revenue.

China spies case: Investigation needed on if Govt is doing enough to protect our democracy and national security

Responding to reports that a case involving two men accused of spying for China collapsed because evidence could not be obtained from the Government referring to China as a national security threat, Liberal Democrat Foreign Affairs spokesperson Calum Miller said:

Posted in News and Press releases | Also tagged calum miller, conservative failure, daisy cooper, ed davey, helen morgan and nhs spending | 4 Comments

How the Labour Government’s “soft” approach to challenging regimes allowed transnational repression from the Chinese government

By Larry Ngan | Wed 10th September 2025 - 3:54 pm

How had the Rules-based International Order (‘RBIO’) influenced UK-China affairs on Hong Kong? A good example would The Handover. Britain transferred sovereignty to the People’s Republic of China (‘PRC’) under the Sino-British declaration 1984 which promised a high autonomy to Hong Kongers with ever progressive democracy in Hong Kong. The transfer of sovereignty occurred as promised regardless of the human rights turmoil between the signing of the treaty and the TianAnMen massacre.

Yet, do challenging regimes like China followed international treaties to the letter? No. First, China under the Chinese Communist Party (‘CCP’) imposed Chinese laws into Hong Kong and threw out the promise of high autonomy. Then, the CCP imposed its will through transnational repression in total contempt of UK law.

Even the Conservatives recognised China’s flagrant breach of the Joint Declaration and dusted out rescue plans for Hong Kongers – the BN(O) visa scheme. Yet, PM Starmer’s Government seems to be soft on the challenging regime in China. And in the case of the Chinese Embassy Complex development plan, they tried turning a blind eye. A firm China strategy is urgently needed if we are to halt China’s movement in destroying the RBIO.

Transnational repression of the Chinese Government

Chinese authorities are sending secret police to the UK carrying out acts of harassment and intimidation over pro-democracy campaigners. The 2023 Intelligence and Security Committee’s (‘ISC’) report on China highlighted that the remits of China’s Intelligence Services (‘ChiS’) are far larger in the UK. More worryingly, CHiS practices, including kidnappings, have far greater remits compared with the intelligence operations of many other countries. Moreover, the reports of China’s action against our parliamentary democracy and secret Chinese police operations are mentioned by the ISC investigation.

The role of the CHiS is our fundamental opposition to a new mega Chinese Embassy at the Old Royal Mint.

Former Minister of State for Security Tom Tugendhat once criticised the Chinese government on 6th June 2023 as follows:

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged hong kong | 2 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 7th September 2025 - 8:30 am

China

The received diplomatic thinking for some years was that the United States represented the secure and stable post-war order. China represented radical—bordering on revolutionary– change.

This is changing. Trump’s America First policy coupled with tariffs and an ill-defined isolationism, is projecting America as the chief agent of change.

Meanwhile, China’s growing dependence on international trade, is transforming it into an advocate of globalisation and the international institutions that protect it.

This was apparent at this past week’s meeting of the 20-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Tianjin. In his opening address, Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed that countries should “uphold justice, engage in multilateralism and advocate for inclusive economic globalisation and an equitable global governance system.”

He also called for support for the United Nations and the World Trade Organisation (The WTO has been effectively rendered powerless by America’s refusal to allow new judges to be appointed).

China has over the years set up a collection of overlapping regional organisations which it dominates. They include the SCO, The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, the China-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States and the China-Arab Forum.

Beijing uses each of these organisations that to push the claim that China—not America—is the world’s anchor of stability. And as the Trump Administration pursues a rolling campaign of economic warfare against its trading partner this story is gaining in credence

Diplomatic and trading opportunities are being handed to China on a plate by the policies of MAGA America. It is getting to the point where an increasing number of countries are actively interested in finding an alternative to the dollar as the world’s premier trading currency. Also, fewer countries appear to be willing to impose sanctions on America’s behalf.

A key country in the shift away from America is India. Historically, India has been at loggerheads with China and successive American administrations have made strenuous bipartisan efforts to secure Indian support to counterbalance growing Chinese power.

These efforts appeared to bear fruit in the first Trump Administration and during the Biden years. But they suffered a serious setback when Trump recently opposed a 50 percent tariff on India for buying Russian oil.

In Tianjin, Modi made a point of physically embracing both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. It was an embrace which sent worried shivers down the spines of American diplomats.

France

French President Emmanuel Macron looks set to lose another prime minister—his fifth since January 2024.

The current resident of the Hotel de Matignon—Francois Bayrou—has scheduled a vote of no confidence in his economic plans for next week. And it looks like it will fail. His deficit reduction proposals are hugely unpopular.

M. Bayrou is a centrist—he and Macron want to reduce France’s high level of public debt which is currently 114 percent of GDP. To do that, Bayrou proposes budget savings of $51 billion a year.

The problem is that Bayrou heads a minority government and budget cuts are opposed by both the right and left-wing blocs of the National Assembly. The National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen, most socialists and Jean-Luc Melenchon’s far-left supporters all oppose the cuts. They also see the debate as an opportunity to increase their parliamentary representation and have called on Macron to call fresh elections to the National Assembly.

The Socialist leader, Olivier Faure, has offered to stave off elections with a pledge to join the Bayrou’s government. But he demands a high price. He wants the cuts halved to $25.5 billion. Faure was rejected.

It is unlikely that Macron will accede to Melenchon and Le Pen’s election demands. The last time he did so, Macron ended up shrinking his minority government. Current polls indicate that if elections were held now, Macron’s supporters would end up with a paltry 15 percent of the vote. The RN is likely to win a third of the votes, the combined parties of the left 25 percent. The balance would be split between socialists and moderate conservatives.

If he does not call elections, Macron will have to choose another prime minister from what appears to be a dwindling list of suitable candidates and an increasingly unstable political environment.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump has taken to heart one of the most famous quotes from George Orwell’s iconic novel “1984”: “He who controls the past controls the future.”

Posted in News | Also tagged donald trump and france | 6 Comments

Vince at the Book Festival

By Caron Lindsay | Fri 22nd August 2025 - 7:07 pm

I may not always agree with Vince Cable, but I always want to know what he thinks about international economics because he always has relevant, interesting and well-researched observations. So when he came to the Edinburgh Book Festival on Wednesday, I really wanted to be there to see him talk about his new book “Eclipsing the West: China, India and the forging of a new world.”

The last time I’d seen him in Edinburgh was when he appeared on Iain Dale’s All Talk on a miserable lunchtime in front of a fairly small audience. So I was delighted to see that there was a massive queue for his show, though I was not so delighted to be at the end of it. It was interesting that I didn’t spot very many Lib Dems among them, though I found out later that they had occupied the front couple of rows.

The Book Festival used to be located in Edinburgh’s Charlotte Square, but has been in the new Edinburgh Futures Institute since last year. I loved the old venue and was sceptical about this one but the courtyard is lovely, the theatres much more comfortable and the toilets infinitely better than the old portable ones. It’s more challenging for me to get to but it is in the heart of the Festival. The Futures Institute is part of the University and is in the renovated old hospital building on Lauriston Place. I and my family have this location app and the first time I was at the Book Festival I got a message from my sister asking if I was ok as she thought I had been murdered and dumped in a storage container as the Google Earth images the app uses are a bit out of date and show when it was a building site.

Anyway, back to Vince. He was interviewed by the BBC’s Douglas Fraser, but there wasn’t really much for him to do. It was more like a lecture as Vince took us through slides charting how China and India’s economies were growing at a rate that would have them well ahead of anywhere else within the next 75 years. He looked at what this meant for the world order and predicted that we are in for a bit of a turbulent time. The world needs someone to lead it and as the US steps back, and nobody is ready to assume the responsibilities it carries out, who is going to be in charge of keeping key international institutions and work going – critical things like dealing with climate change and international trade.

He made the point that both India and China had told Trump to take a running jump with his tariffs. China had been able to get its tariffs reduced because it had the minerals the US needed. It is maybe a lesson, though, for people who think that sucking up to him is a good idea.

He contrasted key differences in the way China and India were run and looked at the challenges for both of them. He said that while the Chinese leadership still cracked down on dissent, they were allowing more debate about certain issues. He cited the recent controversy over a young woman being expelled from a Chinese university because of her relationship with a foreign man. There has been some outrage on social media in China about this.

Posted in News | Also tagged india, reviews and vince cable | 1 Comment

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 20th July 2025 - 8:30 am

Trump

Trump has either lied, is lying or is incompetent. That is the view of an increasing number of prominent MAGA supporters.

The reason? The Jeffrey Epstein files. The so far secret activities of the late convicted paedophile is one of the key conspiracy theories that put Trump in the White House.

One of Trump’s election promises was to publish the Epstein files and prove that key Democrats were implicated in Epstein’s under-age sexual orgies. Now he says there are no files, they are a Democrat fabrication and MAGA supporters should shut up about them.

To be precise he posted on Truth Social this week:

What’s going on with my ‘boys’ and, in some cases, ‘gals?’ They’re all going after Attorney General Pam Bondi, who is doing a FANTASTIC JOB! We’re on one Team, MAGA, and I don’t like what’s happening. We have a PERFECT Administration, THE TALK OF THE WORLD, and ‘selfish people’ are trying to hurt it, all over a guy who never dies, Jeffrey Epstein.

For years, it’s Epstein, over and over again. They wrote documents written by Obama, Crooked Hillary, Comey, Brennan, and the members of the Biden Administration—they created the Epstein Files and if there was something bad in them for MAGA, the Radical Left Lunatics would have already released it.

LET PAM BONDI DO HER JOB — SHE’S GREAT!

The 2020 Election was Rigged and Stolen, and they tried to do the same thing in 2024—That’s what she is looking into as AG, and much more. We are saving our Country and MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.

They problem is that the MAGA crowd has become fixated on conspiracy theories. They are the glue that holds them together. For Trump to simply dismiss one of the most prominent conspiracy theories that he propagated is raising serious questions about his credibility.

Mike Cernovich, a prominent Trump supporter, wrote on X: “No one is buying it. No one is dropping it.”

Natalie Winters, one of Steve Bannon’s protégés, wrote: “I just think it’s frankly very grifty to have spent your entire career promoting…the idea that there is this deep state, the idea that there’s this unelected class of. You know, bankers, corporations, countries, intel agencies, blah, blah, blah. And then finally, you have the power to expose it, and either you’re not, because there’s nothing there, in which case it makes you a liar—and I don’t believe that—or you’re ineffective, or you’re compromised.”

Trump responded to his latest critics with what must rank as one of the all-time great insults. He called them “weenies.”

Dalai Lama

The Dalai Lama turned 90 this month. The world loves this wise old Buddhist monk. Except the Chinese. They hate him.

To Beijing, the 90-yeard-old saffron-robed monk represents Tibetan independence. In fact, he is—for many Tibetans—the spirit of independence reincarnated.

Tibet has been in and out of the Chinese orbit for centuries. During the 19th and first half of the 20th century, Tibet was free of Chinese control. During that interregnum, two-year-old Tenzin Gyatso, was declared the reincarnation of the previous Dalai Lama and carted off to Lhasa to be taught how to be a theocratic ruler,

In 1950, Mao’s communist troops started to reassert control over Tibet and by 1959 the 24-year-old Dalai Lama’s position had become untenable and he fled to India where he established a government-in-exile.

In the intervening years, the Dalai Lama has travelled the world n his fight for Tibetan independence, and over the years, has tempered his positions. He no longer advocates full independence from Beijing. Instead, he proposes that Tibet become an autonomous region within China.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged dalai lama, donald trump, iceland and tibet | Leave a comment

1 July 2025 – today’s press releases

By Mark Valladares | Tue 1st July 2025 - 10:30 pm

FIRS scheme has a “China-shaped hole”, say Lib Dems
Welfare concessions: Govt should “put this bill out of its misery”
Davey: Welfare Bill “no way to run a country”
Carmichael challenges EDF on imposed inferior tariffs for RTS customers
Cole-Hamilton: Delayed discharges another SNP broken promise
Operations activity stagnating below pre-pandemic levels

FIRS scheme has a “China-shaped hole”, say Lib Dems

Responding to the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme (FIRS)’s publication today, Calum Miller MP, Liberal Democrat Foreign Affairs Spokesperson, said:

It’s clear that there’s a China-shaped hole in today’s FIRS announcement. Labour’s failure to include China on the enhanced tier sends a terrible signal to pro-democracy Hong Kongers and Chinese activists living in the UK, and undermines our security.

The government has offered no reasons why China – which poses similar threats to our interests and ideals – is excluded when Iran and Russia are rightly on the enhanced tier.

As we mark the anniversary of the Hong Kong handover today, it’s astonishing the Government has chosen now to broadcast its lax approach to Chinese interference here at home.

With reports also that the Chinese ‘mega-embassy’ is about to be greenlit, the Government needs to get serious about the threat posed by China – or risk mirroring the Conservatives’ utterly incoherent response to Beijing while in power.

Welfare concessions: Govt should “put this bill out of its misery”

Responding to reports that the Government is offering further concessions on the welfare bill to the Labour rebels, Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Daisy Cooper MP said:

The Government should stop tying themselves in endless knots and put this bill out of its misery.

This has been a mess from start to finish and it’s clear that this legislation is not fit for purpose. Ministers are asking MPs to vote on a bill on which the ink hasn’t dried before it is blotted out once again.

The Government needs to go back to the drawing board and pull this bill. The Liberal Democrats are clear we cannot support this legislation that puts up more barriers to work and strips away vital support from disabled people and those who care for them.

Davey: Welfare Bill “no way to run a country”

Following the news that the Government’s Welfare Reform Bill has passed, Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey said:

This is no way to run a country.

The Government should scrap this failed bill altogether and work cross-party to actually bring down the welfare bill by getting people into work.

Posted in News, Press releases and Scotland | Also tagged Alex Cole-Hamilton, Alistair Carmichael, calum miller, daisy cooper, discharge delays, ed davey, nhs operations, radio teleswitch service and welfare reform bill | 2 Comments

Wera Hobhouse refused entry to Hong Kong to see new grandson

By Caron Lindsay | Sat 12th April 2025 - 8:18 pm

I remember the anticipation of going to meet my first niece when she was born during Lib Dem conference at Harrogate. At least I only had a 4 hour train ride in the same country to take to meet this beautiful new person. And nobody to stand in the way of me meeting her.

I can only imagine how our Wera Hobhouse must be feeling. She and her husband William went to Hong Kong on Thursday to meet their baby grandson for the first time and the Chinese authorities simply would not let her in. Even more cruelly they decided that they would admit William. However, they both flew back and have been talking to the Times (£) about their ordeal, which included several hours of interrogation by immigration officials.

Hobhouse has never visited Hong Kong and had been excited about spending time with her son’s family, having seen them only a handful of times in recent years. “My son was waiting at the other end at arrivals,” she said. “I couldn’t even see him and give him a hug and I hadn’t seen him in a year. When I was given the decision my voice was shaking and I was just saying: ‘Why, please explain to me?’ They never gave me an explanation. That was so cruel.

“I just said: ‘I want to see my grandson, I want to cuddle him. He was born three months ago, what is the problem?’ I am obviously devastated. I was obviously looking forward to holding and cuddling him and … establishing a relationship. They are obviously quite a long way away, so each month you lose is a bit of a loss for the relationship I will have with my grandson. Having to fly back, it was so hard. I didn’t cry but I was very close to tears.”

Ed Davey has written to David Lammy to ask him to complain about Wera’s treatment:

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged christine jardine, ed davey, layla moran, vikki slade and wera hobhouse | 2 Comments

Observations of an Expat: It’s War

By Tom Arms | Sat 12th April 2025 - 9:49 am

Trump has declared war on China. It’s a trade war, not a shooting war. But the fallout will still be devastating and it will reach every corner of the globe.

The markets rallied on the news that Trump had blinked. He had reduced everyone’s tariffs to a blanket 10 percent—plus 25 percent for cars, aluminium and steel—except China.

Then tariffs on Chinese goods went up. China retaliated. They went up again. As of this writing tariffs on China stand at 145 percent. And Chinese tariffs on US goods are at 84 percent.

That effectively means that the world’s two biggest economies, who between them control 49 percent of global trade, have locked themselves out of each other’s markets. American farmers who rely on China for their sales will be left with crops rotting in the fields. And American shops that sell everything from t-shirts to I-phones will be left with the choice of either empty shelves or more than doubling their prices.

Trump promised to bring inflation down. It will go up. So will interest rates as the Federal Reserve Bank tries to control spiralling prices. Which means that mortgages and business loans will rise. As business costs rise so will unemployment.

These problems will extend far beyond American shores. There is more than a grain of truth in the saying “when American sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold.”

But there is more. If America can’t sell to China and China can’t sell to America then where will all the soybeans, wheat, steel, cars, computers… go. The answer is Europe, the UK, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and India. This means that those countries goods will have to compete against Chinese and American businesses forced to dump their surplus output on third country markets. And, of course, all those countries will have to pay tariffs to export to America.

And there is more. Trump claims that the tariffs will increase foreign investment in America. Companies, he says, will build factories in the US in order to avoid US tariffs and sell to Americans. But will they? Most major businesses these days think in global not national terms. America is sealing its market off from the rest of the world and, anyway, it is quite likely to be in recession. Finally, foreign businesses crave economic stability. Trump’s up, down, in, out, unhinged shoot-from-the-hip economic policies are creating chaos rather than stability.

Perhaps most worrying of all, is the bond market. Bonds are effectively loans. US Treasury bonds are loans made to the US government to finance America’s trade deficit. At the beginning of the month America’s foreign debt stood at $7.9 trillion. Half of the debt is held by governments. Japan, China and Britain being the top three.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged trade wars and United states of America | 15 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 6th April 2025 - 10:03 am

France

France’s Marine Le Pen has been hoisted upon her own petard. At the National Rally’s annual convention in 2015 she stood at the podium and declared that any politician found guilty of a crime should be barred from office.

Of course, she wasn’t talking about herself. She was referring to the long parade of French political leaders who had fallen foul of the law and been convicted of everything from incitement to hate crimes to pimping to old-fashioned corruption. They included her own father (Jean-Marie Le Pen) and two French presidents (Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy).

Most of them got off fairly lightly, heavy fines and mostly suspended sentences. Only one senior French politician in recent memory has been barred from office—former prime minister Alain Juppe who in 2004 was found guilty of an almost identical crime as the one committed by Ms Le Pen: misusing public funds for political purposes.

In the case of Ms Le Pen and her 24 co-defendants in the National Rally, they were found guilty of taking $4,412,000 earmarked for European Parliamentary business and using the money to pay people working for National Rally. Ms Le Pen was responsible for $520,000 of the money.

The parallels with the legal travails of Donald Trump are obvious. But the American courts took the position that they should go easy on him because he was on the cusp of becoming president. Ms Le Pen is also leading the polls. But the French judges have argued the opposite to their American counterparts.

They judged that because Ms Le Pen was a leading candidate for the presidency of France she should receive a harsher sentence. To do otherwise, argued the court, “would cause a major disruption to democratic public order.”

Ms Le Pen and Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Vladimir Putin, Giorgia Meloni, Viktor Orban and just under half of French voters think that the sentence is unacceptable interference by the courts in the political process. Everyone else thinks that it is important that the law be upheld—a law which Ms Le Pen herself supported.

Canada

It’s called the “Trump Factor” in Canada and it is defined as the out-sized impact that the American president is having on the Canadian elections scheduled for 28 April.

The focus of Canadians is not surprising as Trump has taken it upon himself to threaten Canadian sovereignty by calling for it to become the 51st state and is about to slap tariffs on Canada which will destroy the country’s economy and tens of thousands of jobs.

Which brings us to Canada’s conservative leader Pierre Polievre who has been referred to as “Trump light.” He favours private enterprise; wants some immigration controls; is an anti-vaxxer; is so-so on the issue of climate change; has promised the biggest crackdown on crime in Canadian history; and is seriously anti-woke.

Back in January—before Trump launched his anti-Canadian crusade—Polievre’s policies were enough to put him an apparent shoe-in for the premiership as his party polled 25 points ahead of the governing Liberals.

As of this week, the Liberals are 25 points ahead of Polievre’s conservatives.

The complete reversal is partly down to the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. After nine years in office, the pretty boy of Canadian politics, had run out of steam and was deeply unpopular.

He was replaced by technocrat Mark Carney whose impressive cv includes stints as the governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. Carney then played the card that was the second, bigger reason for the reversal in political fortunes—the Canadian public’s growing hatred of Donald Trump.

Carney has broken with diplomatic convention and refused make his first visit to Washington. Instead he flew to London and Paris. He has been adamant that Canada will never be part of the United States. He will retaliate against any Trumpian tariffs and work to reorganise Canada’s trading patterns away from America. “Our relationship with America will never be the same,” Carney declared.

He doesn’t need any policies other than being firmly anti-Trump.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged australia, canada, france, marine le pen, mark carney, peter dutton and united states | 18 Comments

Liberals are leading in calling out Beijing’s distortions in UN Resolution 2758

By Larry Ngan | Tue 18th March 2025 - 5:30 pm

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has sidelined Taiwan from participating in the United Nations and the related NGOs since UN resolution 2758 was adopted in 1971. China claims the legitimacy of its actions based on the resolution and its distortion of the actual meaning of the UN resolution. In recent years, parliaments in the free world took a tougher stance in calling out Beijing’s distortions in the Resolution’s actual wording. This included The Canadian House of Commons, where the Liberals hold a majority, passing a motion on November 2024 stating that UN Resolution 2758 does not establish the People’s Republic China’s (PRC) sovereignty over Taiwan and that UN2758 has not determined Taiwan’s future participation in the UN or other international organisations.

In my opinion, it is beyond doubt that the PRC mischaracterised the meaning of UN resolution 2758. Through these distortions, Beijing holds the view to legitimise its expansionism into Taiwan.

The resolution reads as:

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged taiwan | 4 Comments

A longer read: Green policies under fire

By Vince Cable | Thu 5th December 2024 - 11:19 am

The politics of climate change has got a whole lot uglier. ‘Saving the planet’ may make for good speeches to the party faithful but the political costs are now becoming more apparent.

The planned job losses in the car industry, including the closure of the Vauxhall (Stellantis) plant at Luton, have made the vision of ‘green jobs’ more difficult to sell. The industrial strategy I oversaw in the Coalition involved expansion of the car industry and a highlight was going to the USA to head off closures of Vauxhall’s plants and get a commitment to UK expansion. Now the industry has concluded that the mandatory target for sales of EVs (22% this year rising to 100% by 2030) is just too difficult. My successor as Business Secretary is having to revisit the policy.

Public warnings by experts of a short-term increase energy prices as we transition to renewable power has also sent nervous tremors through government ministers. Reform UK has smelt blood and sees political prey in the form of ‘net zero’. The Tories are keeping step with their rivals on the populist right. Long gone are the days when Margaret Thatcher led international opinion on the need to tackle climate change and her successors (up to and including Boris Johnson) could be relied upon to support a political consensus including mandating ‘net zero’ targets by legislation. Opposition politicians have sensed that the British public enthusiastically supports the fight against climate change but only if it doesn’t have to pay.

The budget was another warning sign of political nervousness. An obvious revenue raiser, and ‘green’ policy, was to raise petrol and diesel duties which have been frozen for over a decade by governments reluctant to upset motorists and lorry drivers. Nothing happened. With bus subsidies cut, and rail fares set to rise, there is yet another incentive to resist environmentally friendly change in transport.

A much bigger and more painful decision looms. Britain has an opportunity to make EV motoring much more accessible by importing large numbers of low-cost Chinese cars. China has, quite suddenly, become the world’s leading nation for car production and is poised to flood world markets with relatively cheap but high quality EVs. The EU has panicked over the threat to European producers and has thrown up tariff barriers. The USA already blocks Chinese imports. But Britain has an open market. Car industry jobs versus the greening of transport is precisely the kind of dilemma that politicians hate but will soon face.

In practice, the trade-offs can be made less painful by persuading the Chinese car companies like BYD to set up shop in the UK and produce locally. This was the strategy employed four decades ago with the Japanese companies which were then coming to dominate the industry: hence Nissan in Sunderland.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged climate change and india | 30 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 1st December 2024 - 9:21 am

Israel

Israel has won the war with Hezbollah. That is if the ceasefire recently announced takes effect as planned.

If Hezbollah has lost then so have backers Iran and the Palestinians in Gaza and on the West Bank. Hezbollah was the keystone in Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” It effectively turned Lebanon into a buffer state between Israel and Iran.

As for the Palestinians, the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah ordered the rocket attacks on northern Israel with the promise that they would continue until there was a ceasefire in Gaza.

The ceasefire agreement makes no mention of Gaza. Israeli forces continue to fight there. Benjamin Netanyahu has severed the link between Hezbollah and Gaza and between Iran and Gaza. This has in turn given him a free hand in dealing with the Palestinians both in Gaza and the West Bank.

He is further aided by the re-election of Donald Trump. The president-elect has been vague about his Middle East policy. He is known for his unpredictability. But the appointment of Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel provides some hints. Huckabee is opposed to the two-state solution and has hinted that he supports Israeli annexation of the West Bank and northern Gaza.

Surprisingly, opinion polls indicate that only about half of the Israeli population support the ceasefire agreement. Why is unclear.

The agreement says that Israeli and Hezbollah forces must withdraw from territory between the Israeli-Lebanese border and the Litani River which is roughly 30 miles north of Israel. Hezbollah would completely disarm. The buffer zone would be occupied by 10,000 UN troops and 10,000 troops from the official Lebanese army with financial backing from the US and France.

Israel cannot launch offensive operations against Lebanon, but it has the full backing of the US to launch “defensive” operations. “If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself,” said Netanyahu, “we will attack. If it tries to rebuild the terrorist infrastructure near the border we will attack. If it tries to launch a rocket. If it digs a tunnel. If it brings in a truck carrying a rocket, we will attack.”

Israel has clearly abandoned the search for a political resolution and put all of its hopes and dreams into the military option.

United States

The threatened 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada will hit them hard. Eighty percent of Canada’s exports are to the US. The same figure applies to Mexico.

But they will also damage the American economy. America needs Mexico’s $19 billion of machinery, electrical equipment and fruit and vegetables. About half of US fruit imports come from Mexico. And if you fancy avocados, 90 percent of America’s avocados are grown in Mexico.

Transferring that production to the U.S. would be difficult, especially since about half of the 2 million agricultural workers in the U.S. are undocumented Mexicans. At the moment they are protected by a visa system that gives legal status to agricultural workers. But Trump has vowed to end that which would seriously impact the $1.5 trillion American fruit and vegetable industry.

Undocumented workers also make up 60 percent of the work force of the construction companies in the southwest. One construction official complained that deporting them “would devastate our industry, we wouldn’t finish our highways, we wouldn’t finish our schools. New housing would simply disappear.”

Canada exports a wide range of products to the U.S., including up to 30 percent of the oil consumed by America. Refineries in the mid-west and Pacific Northwest are especially reliant on oil pipelines from Canada. GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, reckons that a 25% tax on Canadian crude oil would increase gas prices in the Midwest and the Rockies by 25 cents to 75 cents a gallon,

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged israel and united states | 11 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 27th October 2024 - 9:23 am

North Korea at al

China is unhappy. So is Belarus. Both countries are worried about North Korea sending troops to Russia in the middle of the Ukraine war.

President Xi Jinping is worried that the move will de-stabilise the Korean Peninsula, escalate and complicate the Ukraine War, increase Russian influence in the Far East and potentially drag China into a head-on conflict with NATO.

Alexander Lukashenko is concerned that the appearance of non-Russian troops in Ukraine will increase pressure on him to send Belarussian soldiers in support of the Kremlin.

Xi hates uncertainty. He likes his foreign policy to run along diplomatic railway lines painted bright red so that others know not to cross them. If there are going to be any spanners to be thrown, he wants to toss them and control their flight and consequences.

He does not like North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. He is uneasy about the hereditary communist dictator’s nuclear arsenal. He supplies the regime with just enough aid and trade to keep them going, but not enough to threaten the status quo. This is because for the past 74 years one of the chief aims of China is to keep Korea divided and to maintain North Korea as a buffer state between the Chinese border and 25,000 American soldiers in South Korea. Anything which threatens to disrupt that policy is bad news in Beijing.

The bromance between Vladimir Putin and Kim threatens to upset this delicately balanced apple cart. Kim will want something in return for his troops. It will almost certainly include Russian military help which will embolden the mercurial North Korean leader and increase the threat to South Korea and Japan.

Belarus is on the frontline in the Ukraine War. The initial attack in 2022 was launched from its territory. Lukashenko is closely allied with Russia and continues to provide bases and logistical support. But Lukashenko knows he is unpopular. He clings to power with the help of the Belarussian KGB (yes, they retained the name of the old Soviet organisation). Committing his small military force of 50,000 to the Ukraine War would be unpopular and threaten his rule.

By the way, just everyone else is also unhappy about North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine. It adds a new and dangerous dimension by internationalising the conflict.

Russia

Russia is unhappy too. The recent referendum in Moldova on closer ties with the European Union did not go the way the Kremlin wanted. It was extremely close: 50.46 percent in favour of closer ties and 49.54 percent against.

The Russians did everything they could to push the vote the other way. They played fast and loose with bribery, intimidation and misinformation. A BBC reporter was filmed being approached by a voter asking for the payment she had been promised.

The misinformation focused on an expensive advertising campaign which claimed the EU planned to brainwash Moldovan children to turn gay or transgender. The gay community is generally unpopular throughout Eastern Europe.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged georgia, moldova, north korea, russia and ukraine | 5 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 6th October 2024 - 10:25 am

China

The Chinese leadership is worried. Their country’s long history is peppered with instances of the “Mandate of Heaven” falling from the rulers’ shoulders because of economic problems.

On top of that there is the obvious fact that autocracies run the risk of violent dissent because the non-violent avenues of protest are banned.

Paramount Leader Xi Jinping has warned of “potential dangers” and added that the Chinese Communist Party must be “well-prepared” to “overcome grave challenges.” In Xi-speak this means a crackdown on dissent accompanied with measures to help the middle classes and criticism of wealthy people who flaunt their riches.

In this week alone. The party has authorised cash hand-outs, tried to shake up the ailing property market and held a surprise meeting to kick start the economy. But three years of economic slowdown and Covid lockdown have taken a toll and economists believe that it is unlikely that China will hit the relatively modest (for China) target of 5 percent growth in the economy.

The Chinese young people have been particularly hard hit. Unemployment among the 16 to 24 year olds hit 21.3 percent in 2023. In January this year the government stopped issuing figures which implies that the youth jobless statistics have soared even higher. Also impacted has been the promotion prospects for those fortunate enough to be in employment.

For decades the Chinese have been admired – and feared—for their extraordinary work ethic. The changes in the economy, however, have created a shift in attitudes towards work. According to a recent survey by American online pollsters, in 2013, 63 percent of recent graduates said hard work paid. Ten years later the figure had dropped to 28.3 percent.

The survey by N. Aliskey, S, Rozelle and M. Whyte also revealed a fear for the future. In 2014, 76.5 percent of those polled were optimistic about the future and said that the economy and their lives had improved over the past five years. In 2023 the figure was 38.8 percent.

According to the think tank Freedom House, in the second quarter of 2024 there has been an 18 percent rise in protests and three-quarters of these were based on economic grievances. From June 2022, Freedom House has logged 6,400 incidents of dissent, and their research does not include Xinjiang or Tibet where dissent is the strongest.

United States

J.D Vance won the vice-presidential debate. That was the general consensus. That consensus is not good news for J.D. Vance. Donald Trump does not like the spotlight being shifted away from him.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged austria and United states of America | Leave a comment

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 25th August 2024 - 10:51 am

United States

The Kamala Harris bandwagon continues to gather momentum. Going into this week’s Democratic National Convention “The Economist” poll tracker put her three points ahead nationally. The convention dividend should add another two to three points easily.

Kamala’s rapid rise, however, has less to do with her policies and more to do with vibes. Her main attributes are that she is younger than Joe Biden, pro-abortion and anti-Trump, which, for the Democrats, is more than enough.

In her 40-minute conference speech a few foreign policy hints slipped out. On the Middle East she supports Israel while sympathising and empathising with the Palestinians. On NATO she is pro-Alliance. As for Ukraine, she is anti-Putin and on China Kamala Harris remains a bit of a mystery.

Ms Harris’s recent speech in Philadelphia on Kamalanomics failed to impress the professionals. Her plans to end price gouging with federal regulations; raise child tax credits by $4,000 and hand-out $25,000 to first time home buyers, was derided by most economists as inflationary left-of-centre crowd-pleasing populism. It was not, however, as Trump claimed, communism.

Former prosecutor Kamala Harris is, however, proving adept at deflecting criticism; coming up with resonating slogans and landing punches. Two placards keep popping up at her rallies: “Freedom” and “We Will Not Go Back.”

The first encompasses a broad swathe of issues to include reproductive rights, racism, misogyny, health care, for the elderly, the electoral process, the rule of law, the constitution and democracy itself. All of which either have been, or are perceived to be, threatened by Donald Trump and his Republican acolytes.

“We Will Not Go Back” refers to the belief that Republicans want to turn the social clock back to the 1950s – perhaps even further – when Jim Crow ruled in the South and a woman’s place was in the home.

Trump is the master of the personal insult. Vice President Harris has fostered a unique method for countering them. She ignores them. Then she turns the debate on her opponent’s weaknesses. Project 2025, for instance, is a major embarrassment for the ex-president. He has repeatedly disavowed it. But Kamala Harris refuses to let it go.

Finally, there is the fact that Kamala Harris ticks almost every diversity box there is. She is a female, part-Asian, part-African all-American. Yet she rarely mentions her gender or mixed-race background. Perhaps it is time for Martin Luther King Jr’s dream. The dream that the day will come when a person will be judged not by the colour of their skin, but by the content of their character.

China and the United States

China appreciates Donald Trump. It is too much they say they like him. His threatened tariffs and bellicose rhetoric would undoubtedly put a strain on Sino-American relations.

But at the same time, the ex-president has shown little inclination to defend Taiwan and Trump’s transactional diplomacy could simplify relations. Most of all, Donald J. Trump is a known quantity.

Kamala Harris, on the other hand, is an unwelcome mystery.

For a start, Beijing is unhappy with the end of the battle of the geriatrics that a Trump-Biden race represented. The Chinese have their own problems with a perceived gerontocracy and Kamala Harris presents an unflattering contrast with 71-year-old Xi Jinping. Since Ms Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee, all hints of a Biden-Xi comparison have been erased from the Chinese internet.

Then there is the problem of racism and misogyny. At least America’s problem as portrayed by the Chinese Communist Party. In May Beijing published a report on human rights in America which said racism is getting worse and gender discrimination is “rampant”. Kamala Harris – in case you missed it – is female and of mixed Asian-African heritage.

It is expected that Kamala Harris’s China policy will largely be a re-run of Joe Biden’s. She will likely leave in place the tariffs imposed by her mentor and continue the commitment to defend Taiwan and attack China’s human rights record.

The choice of Tim Walz as Harris’s running-mate adds an interesting wrinkle to Sino-American relations in a possible Harris administration. He taught in China and has visited the country dozens of times. In contrast, Ms Harris has made only the rare visit to Asia.

This indicates that Walz may break with vice-presidential tradition and have a role to play as the administration’s point man on China. Republicans are ready for it. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives have already launched an investigation into Walz’s “longstanding and cosy relationship with China”. Unfortunately for the conservatives they are unlikely to find skeleton’s in Walz’s Chinese wardrobe. His time in and out of Congress has been marked by repeated attack on Beijing’s human rights record, a fact that has not gone unnoticed by China’s state-controlled media.

Trump, on the other hand, is more concerned with trading rights than human rights. So, all things considered, Xi Jinping is likely to prefer Trump over Harris.

India

Last month Moscow. This week Kyiv. What is Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi up to?

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged donald trump, india, kamala harris, Narendra Modi and United states of America | 1 Comment

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 28th July 2024 - 10:30 am

Gaza

The world was presented with two alternative approaches to the Gaza War this week. The first was brokered by China. The second was outlined by Benjamin Netanyahu in an address to a Joint Session of the US Congress.

The first was supported by the feuding leaders of Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, 12 other Palestinian factions and a big chunk of the Global South. The second was received with a standing ovation by America’s Republican lawmakers but boycotted by dozens of Democrat Congressmen.

The Chinese-brokered deal is aimed at ending the schism between Fatah which rules the West Bank as the Palestinian Authority and Hamas which has governed Gaza since ejecting Fatah in 2007. The bitter split between the two has been one of the chief obstacles to implementing the much sought after two-state solution.

On Tuesday the Palestinian factions agreed to form an interim reconciliation government. They also agreed to jointly demand a ceasefire; a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the West Bank; elections and they established the bones of a reconstruction programme for Gaza.

On Thursday, Netanyahu denied that Israel was blocking aid to Gaza; claimed that only a few civilians had died; called for the total destruction of Hamas; made no reference to the two-state solution and insisted that a post-war Gaza should be a “demilitarised and de-radicalised” enclave under Israeli military control.

Among those boycotting Netanyahu’s address was former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. She described his speech as “by far the worst presentation of any foreign dignitary invited and honoured with the privilege of addressing the Congress of the United States.”

Ukraine

Another visitor to Beijing this week was Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba. It was the first visit to China by a Ukrainian official since the Russian invasion, and indicates a Ukrainian shift in emphasis from the military to the diplomatic.

The Ukrainians see the Chinese as the only third party power with any leverage over Vladimir Putin. Kuleba told his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi that Ukraine was ready to negotiate in good faith, but he added: “No such readiness is currently observed on the Russian side.” Wang agreed that that the “conditions and timing are not yet ripe.”

Vladimir Putin, for his part, is sticking to his demands that Ukraine handover the four regions his troops have occupied in eastern Ukraine; promise not to join NATO and agree to demilitarisation.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged benjamin netanyahu, gaza, ukraine and vladimir putin | 15 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 19th May 2024 - 10:09 am

Russia and China

It took Vladimir Putin just nine days for Putin to go from his inauguration in the Kremlin to Zhongnanhai – the seat of China’s political power and the home of President Xi Jinping.

At the end of the two-day visit the “partnership without limits” had been elevated to one in which there are now “no forbidden areas of cooperation.”

The two countries – and the two leaders – are united in their common goal of dismantling the liberal Western political order that has dominated the world since 1945. Democracy, they are convinced, has had its day. It is time now for Sino-Russian orchestrated autocracy.

The current pivot of the Beijing-Moscow axis is the Ukraine War. This war presents both problems and opportunities for China. On the one hand, Russian failure would be regarded as a disaster. On the other, Xi Jinping is conscious of the need to prevent Sino-American relations from deteriorating too quickly. China is not ready to step into American shoes.

So, Xi Jinping exploits Russia to poke, needle and goad Washington. He talks of “no forbidden areas of cooperation” but then urges Putin to row back on the nuclear rhetoric. China has yet to recognise the Russian annexation of Luhansk and Donetsk and – so far—has refused to supply Russia with obvious weaponry. It buys more oil from Russia but is playing hardball on the Russian request for a gas pipeline that would replace revenues that Gazprom has lost in Europe.

China, has however, ignored Western sanctions against Russia. In 2022 Russian imports of Chinese machine tools grew by 120 percent and in 2023 they rose another 170 percent.

Machine tools are just one industrial category which Secretary of State Antony Blinken has complained loudly about as helping the Russian war effort. This equipment either has a hidden defense element or it is categorised as dual-use, which means it can be used for civilian or military purposes.

Other similar categories of Chinese exports have grown exponentially since Russian tanks rolled across the Ukrainian border. Semi-conductor exports rose from $230 million in 2021 to £407 million in 2023. The machinery for making computer chips grew from $3.5 million to $180 million over the same period. Computer chips are essential for the conduct of high-tech 21^st century warfare.

Russian oil

Russian oil and gas are financing Putin’s Ukraine War. So, this week, the Russian president had good news and bad news about his war coffers.

Oil revenues are up. Gas revenues are down.

Gazprom – the state gas monopoly – lost $6.9 billion in 2023. Its first annual loss since the bad old days of Russian financial chaos 20 years ago. The reason for the drop is Western sanctions and the closure of the gas pipelines Nordstream 1 and 2. Russian gas sales to Europe were down 55.6 percent. They will be even lower next year.

The picture provided by Rosneft – the Russian oil equivalent – is much rosier. Its profits were up a record 13 percent to $14.07 billion. The reason for its financial success were India, Putin’s friends in OPEC and the end of the pandemic.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has completely ignored Western sanctions and exploited Putin’s difficulties by buying huge quantities of oil at discounted prices, India then reaps a nice profit by selling the processed oil to third countries via the world market.

The OPEC countries meanwhile, have obliged President Putin by keeping oil production down and prices up. At the same time demand for energy has grown as the world economy recovers from the Covid pandemic.

But what about the coming year. Gazprom’s revenues are unlikely to rise. It takes time to build alternative destination pipelines and storage facilities. As for oil prices, demand is starting to fall. India has reached the limits of how much oil it can process and world economic growth is expected to drop to 2.7 percent in 2024 compared to 5.5 percent in 2022.

So, what Putin needs is a first class money manager to ensure that the maximum efficiency is squeezed out of every rouble. That is why he has appointed economist Andre Belousov as his new Minister for Defense.

Putin is his own commander-in-chief. He already has a Chief of Staff in the form of General Valery Gerasimov. What he needs is someone who can organise a defense budget that is now 6.7 percent of the country’s GDP before oil prices start to go the way of gas prices.

United States

In 1923, the US Secretary of the Interior, Albert Fall, was hauled before the courts for accepting a $350,000 bribe that allowed an oil company to drill in protected reserves at Teapot Dome, Wyoming.

This is the crux of the Teapot Dome Scandal which was recognised as America’s biggest political scandal until Watergate and the resignation of Richard Nixon.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged russia, ukraine and United states of America | 8 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 12th May 2024 - 9:26 am

Russia

It was a week of military parades, trumpets, nuclear sabre-rattling and an inauguration in Russia this week.

It started with another threat from President Vladimir Putin when he announced on Monday the start of military exercises involving non-strategic nuclear weapons. This was in response to America releasing its $61 billion aid package to Ukraine, and the repetition of French President Emmanuel Macron’s threat to consider sending French troops to Ukraine.

Then there was Putin’s inauguration as he started his fifth term in office with a long walk past applauding crowds lining the red-carpeted corridors of the Kremlin. Putin’s first inauguration in 2000 was hailed as Russia’s transition to democracy. This one followed an election in which he “won” 87.5 percent of the vote while all his political opponents were either dead, in exile or in prison.

On Thursday it was the Victory Day Parade to mark the end of what the Russians call “The Great Patriotic War.” May Day was the big parade in Soviet days. May 9, was important, but it was not even a public holiday until 1965. Putin, has revived the celebration and elevated it to a collective remembrance resembling a religion.

One of the highlights of the parade is the march of the “Immortal Regiment” in which relatives troop past the reviewing stand holding aloft pictures of family members who died in the war. The scene is reminiscent of icons being carried in Russian Orthodox Church services. The 60^th and 70^th anniversaries of the war’s end (in 2005 and 2015) were the biggest public holidays in Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the inauguration and Victory Day were marked by increased Russian bombardments and missile attacks as Russian troops tried to gain the military upper hand before the latest batch of Western military aid arrived.

Palestine

The two main Palestinian factions – Hamas and Fatah – hate each other almost as much as they do the Netanyahu government.

They have barely spoken since 2007 when Hamas won elections in Gaza and booted Fatah and the Palestinian Authority out of the seaside strip.

That is why it is significant that representatives from the two factions met recently in Moscow and Beijing. The Chinese meeting was especially interesting because Beijing is keen to project itself as Middle East peace broker as opposed to its characterization of the US as Middle East war monger.

The Chinese have already successfully brokered the re-establishment of diplomatic relations between regional rivalries Iran and Saudi Arabia. Shortly after that success, foreign minister Wang Yi wrote to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offering to mediate in the decades-old Arab-Israel conflict. Netanyahu politely refused.

Brokering a rapprochement between Fatah and Hamas could be a diplomatic back door for Beijing to constructively inject itself into the Middle East conflict. It is generally agreed that the two-state solution is the logical solution to the conflict.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged donald trump, israel, palestine, russia and United states of America | 3 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 10th March 2024 - 10:50 am

Keep your eye on Israeli politician Benny Gantz. He is currently the bookies’ favourite to be Israel’s next Prime Minister.

More importantly, he has hinted at a willingness to discuss the two-state solution.

This has put him in direct conflict with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the far-right coalition members of his government. They are totally opposed to the two-state solution which is being pushed by the US, Europe, the Arab world and virtually everyone except Netanyahu and Co.

Gantz’s political flexibility earned him an invitation to visit Washington where this week he met with Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

The visit was not cleared with Netanyahu who ordered Michael Herzog, Israel’s ambassador in Washington, to do everything possible to sabotage the Gantz visit.

And when the minister-without-portfolio returned he was told by Netanyahu that “Israel has only one prime minister.” That prime minister, it must be said, has yet to receive an invitation to visit the Biden White House.

Gantz is leader of the National Unity Party. Like so many Israeli politicians he came through the ranks of the military, eventually becoming army chief of staff in 2012. Then in 2018 he decided to turn his hand to politics and very quickly emerged as the main opposition figure to Netanyahu.

After the October 7 attack by Hamas, Netanyahu invited Gantz to join a national unity war cabinet, along with three other members of his party

Gantz accepted and is in full agreement with Netanyahu on the need for total victory over Hamas. But the two men part company over what happens next.

Netanyahu is adamant in his refusal to discuss a two-state solution or anything even remotely resembling a two=state solution.

But in 2020, Gantz told the Munich Security Conference: “Eventually we will find ourselves a two-entity solution in which we respect Palestinian sovereignty and governance but we will be respected for our security needs.”

Despite repeated questioning by journalists and others, Gantz refused to define “entity.” But position was clear enough to prompt far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to describe Benny Gantz as the “weak link” in Israel’s war cabinet. This week Smotrich stood up in the Knesset and demanded that Gantz declare his opposition to the two-state solution. Gantz’s reply was a deafening silence.

Meanwhile the minister-without-portfolio continues to rise in the opinion polls and Netanyahu continues to fall. According to a poll this week by Israel’s Channel 10, voters believe that Netanyahu is prolonging the war for his own political ends. According to the poll, voters think that the prime minister knows that when the war ends he will unceremoniously be voted out of office and – without immunity from prosecution–face a series of long-standing corruption charges.

The Sudanese Civil War is a forgotten war. It shouldn’t be.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged israel, phillipines and tom arms world review | 9 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 7th January 2024 - 8:32 am

Israel

“The Day After Gaza” – as the discussion about what to do after the fighting is called in Israel, is the number one topic in the Israeli cabinet.

Not surprisingly, the coalition government is hopelessly divided.

On the far-right side are the representatives of the Ultra-Orthodox parties led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. They want to “encourage” the Palestinians to leave the Gaza and replace them with Jewish settlers.

A shade more reasonable is Defense Minister Yoav Gallant who wants Israel to retain overall security control while working with a multi-national force in Gaza. Palestinians would be free to manage day-to-day affairs as long as they did not “commit any hostile actions against Israel.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has yet to officially unveil his ideas in cabinet, but he has written an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. In it he said he had three goals – destroy Hamas everywhere; demilitarise the Gaza Strip and “deradicalise” Palestinians.

The first goal, presumably involves assassinating Hamas leaders in foreign countries. This has the potential of being construed by the host country as an act of war. It certainly would not help Israel’s image.

As for demilitarisation, Gaza is already officially demilitarised. Everyone can see how well that has worked.

The third is new and startling Netanyahu claims that at the root of current problems is a Hamas-controlled education system which has radicalised the Palestinians against Israel. He wants to re-educate or “de-radicalise” Palestinians through a revised educational system. This smacks of the re-education camps of China, the Soviet Union, Vietnam, Cambodia….

Taiwan and China

2024 will be a big election year. Four billion people in more than 70 countries will be trooping to the polls.

Some of the elections will be a sham. Russia is a prime example. I can predict now that Vladimir Putin will win.

Others are real and important. They include the US, UK, EU, India, South Korea and Mexico. One of the most important and potentially consequential elections occurs next Saturday in Taiwan. The result will determine if the 24million Taiwanese move away from or towards Mainland China.

The voters’ decision will have a major impact on the actions of Xi Jinping’s China, and this turn has the potential of dramatic consequences for the rest of the world.

The Taiwanese elections are both presidential and legislative. At the moment both the legislature and the presidency are controlled by the Democratic People’s Party (DPP). The President, Tsai Ing-wen has served two terms and is barred from standing for a third.

Posted in Op-eds | Also tagged donald trump, gaza, israel, taiwan and United states of America | 6 Comments

Op-eds

We need a tax rise to fund additional defence spending (Simon McGrath)
Putting Liberal values into practice in the heart of London (Victor Chamberlain)
Sanctions against Israeli settlers welcome – but inadequate (Jonathan Brown)
Protecting children shouldn’t mean abolishing their right to privacy (Tara Foster)
AI and Liberal Democracy (Robin Ashby)

Advert

Josh Babarinde writes…The Lib Dem Summer of Strategy

Alison Suttie writes: Thank you to our volunteers

What’s going on with party strategy?

A strange but welcome feeling

Tag Archives: china

The Thucydides Trap

Ebola

China

Hungary

United States

China

Transnational repression of the Chinese Government

China

France

Donald Trump

Trump

Dalai Lama

France

Canada

Israel

United States

North Korea at al

Russia

China

United States

United States

China and the United States

India

Gaza

Ukraine

Russia and China

Russian oil

United States

Russia

Palestine

Israel

Taiwan and China

Subscribe

Most Read

Search

Op-eds

Recent Comments