Category Archives: Op-eds

Tom Arms’ World Review

UK

British Home Secretary Suella Braverman’s “Stop the Boats” policy is in danger of being torpedoed by the European Convention on Human Rights. But then Ms Braverman may have an answer to that problem: Withdraw from the convention and the jurisdiction of the administering European Court of Human Rights.

The Illegal Migration Bill – as it is officially called – is aimed at stopping the estimated 50,000-plus people who are expected to cross the English Channel in small boats this year. It is one of the five cornerstone goals of Rishi Sunak’s premiership.

A key element of the policy is that any small boat refugee crossing the channel to seek asylum in Britain will be detained for 28 days without access to the law. At the end of that period, if they are not granted asylum, they will be flown to Rwanda or transported back to their home country. There will be no right of appeal and anyone deported will be banned from future asylum applications.

Most legal eagles agree that the proposed law is a breach of the International Convention on Refugees and the European Convention on Human Rights which binds the British government to protect people (including refugees) from being killed or subject to inhumane and degrading treatment. It also exposes the Home Secretary to the charge of unlawful imprisonment and the denial of basic legal rights.

In anticipation of these obstacles, Ms Braverman has said that the European Court of Human Rights is “at odds with British values” and the “will of the British people,” thus raising the spectre of British withdrawal. It was British lawyers in the early post-war years who were largely responsible for drafting the European Convention of Human Rights and establishing the court. For their template they used Magna Carta and the 1689 English Bill of Rights with the French Declaration of the Rights of Man, the US Bill of Rights and the UN Declaration of Human Rights thrown in for good measure. Ms Braverman would appear to be “at odds” with legal history.

Ukraine

Russian missile attacks on Ukraine reached new levels this week and raised the danger levels at Europe’s largest nuclear reactor at Zaporizhzhia.  The missiles temporarily knocked out the outside power source which was needed to cool the reactors.

Power was restored on Thursday, but this was the sixth time that outside power has been cut off and workers have been forced to switch to emergency diesel generators to protect the reactors. Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN’s International Atomic Entergy Agency, said: “Each time this happens we are rolling the dice. One day our luck will run out.”

He accused the international community of complacency over the fate of the Zaporizhzhia power plant and urged the Russians, Ukrainians and all other interested parties to “commit to protect the supply and safety of the plant.”

Not all, nuclear experts agree with Senor Grossi’s dire warning. Some say that the reactors have been shut down to such an extent that they require little or no power to stay safe. They all agree that the ones in greatest danger are the Russian soldiers guarding the site and the Ukrainians working there.

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Has the BBC been impartial over Lineker?

There was a moment last night when I wondered if we were going to see tonight’s Match of the Day presented by Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries after pundits and commenters alike responded to Gary Lineker’s suspension with solidarity.

Gary Lineker is a national treasure and sports presenter. While he is on telly, he talks about football. If he talked about politics, I doubt he’d have the following among football fans that he has. I never watch him because I am not a football fan. However, I have a very positive opinion of him from Twitter, where he has, for years, been chatting away about all sorts of stuff. He wasn’t a fan of Brexit, you know.

Lineker is far from the first BBC star to have political views. One of the first I remember was Kenny Everett, with his Let’s Bomb Russia comments and cruel jibes about Michael Foot back in 1983 at a Conservative Party election event.

And what about Ian Hislop and Paul Merton? They have rarely been complimentary about any Governemnt? Are they next in line for the chop?

When Rishi Sunak tweeted on Tuesday with some pride that he was removing modern slavery protections from people who arrive in this country illegally,  anyone with a commitment to human rights was rightly concerned:

Here was our Prime Minister basically giving a free pass to slavers who could then tell their victims, correctly, that there was no recourse to help. It’s hardly surprising people were angry.

Lineker’s response was strong but justifiably so. He called the Bill:

An immeasurably cruel policy directed at the most vulnerable people in language that is not dissimilar to that used by Germany in the 30s

The way in which the Tories have been othering vulnerable members of society, from immigrants to people who need social security to survive to trans people to fat people to those suffering from addictions, disabilities and mental ill health has been of concern for some years. Remember when David Cameron described migrants crossing the Channel as a “swarm?” It’s dehumanising and creates a culture where vulnerable people are seen as a threat and not as fellow human beings just like us. It’s done to set people against each other to distract from a failing government.

Our Tim Farron is both a mad football fan and passionately pro supporting refugees. He tweeted:

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Are we ready to fight the Culture War?

Two op-eds in the Sunday Telegraph in recent weeks have hailed Ron de Santis, Governor of Florida and strongest alternative Republican candidate for the US Presidency in 2024 to Donald Trump, as showing the way forward for British Conservatives: to fight the culture war as vigorously as possible. It looks as if the Conservatives are already doing so.

The whole point of culture wars is to distract the attention of voters from economic difficulties and concerns about inequality by attacking ‘the liberal establishment’ which – it is claimed – is betraying the instincts and traditions of ordinary people. Migration, friendliness with foreigners, intellectual sophistication (instead of ‘common sense’ and ‘what you know in your gut’), concerns about diversity, gender, rewriting history and what used to be called political correctness and is now called ‘woke’ make up the mix.

De Santis is a graduate from Yale University, where he now claims that he was ‘taught that communism was superior’, and Harvard Law School, who is now attacking the autonomy of Floridan universities. He’s tightened state laws on abortion, thrown doubt on climate change, resisted the Covid lockdown and removed tax privileges for the ‘woke’ Disney Corporation. That’s the example that many Tory strategists want to follow.

Over the past week we have seen the political technologists of Tory political strategy take over from the reasonable face Rishi Sunak has been presenting. ‘Stop the boats’ is a three-word slogan borrowed from Australia rather than the Trump phrasebook. A ‘new’ deal has been launched which is much the same as last year’s anti-migrant initiative, with no clearer indication of how its targets can be reached or those who manage to reach the UK removed. At Prime Ministers’ Questions on March 8th a ‘red-wall’ Tory MP raised the threat of ‘graphic lessons on oral sex, how to choke your partner and 72 genders’ to children in English schools, and the Prime Minister promised an ‘urgent review’ into sex education. And the following day Conservative HQ circulated a digital message in Suella Braverman’s name blaming “an activist blob of leftwing lawyers, civil servants and the Labour party” for blocking her attempts to stop the flow of undocumented migrants across the Channel.

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Observations of an expat: Adjusting the thermostat

European thermometers dropped this week. But generally speaking it has been a relatively mild winter and temperatures are starting to rise. This is good news for Ukraine. Good news for Europe. Bad news for Russia and great news for America.

Twelve months ago the Western Alliance was seriously worried that Europe’s reliance on Russian gas and oil would render it powerless to stand up to Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.

The outlook is now considerably brighter. Cash-strapped consumers turned down thermostats. Russian gas supplies have been cut by two-thirds. Nordstream pipelines have shut down (thank you saboteurs whomever you  may be). New storage facilities have been built for liquefied natural gas (LNG). The US has increased its shipments of LNG and Europe is moving faster towards renewable energy sources.

Glitches remain. Landlocked countries such as Austria, Hungary and Slovakia remain heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas and some 20 billion cubic metres (BCM) of Russian gas is still being pumped by pipeline into the EU. Ironically, the pipeline runs through Ukraine. Also, Europeans have increased purchases of Russian LNG, but moves are afoot to reverse that.

The bulk of Europe’s gas is now coming from America. Exports from the US are up 137 percent from a year ago. Companies such as Chevron and Exxon have stepped up fracking operations in Texas, Appalachia, New Mexico and Louisiana. They freeze the gas in terminals and then ship it to Europe. There it is transferred to either newly built storage facilities or specially adapted ships where it is returned to its gaseous state and piped to homes, power stations and factories.

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Nepotism

I can’t remember an actual case of nepotism – strictly offering a leg-up to one’s nephew – but the spirit of nepotism lives on. The word was coined to refer to the practice of mediaeval popes when they appointed family members, usually nephews, as cardinals.  It is used more broadly today to include family members and friends, although cronyism is a variant that specifically refers to friends and associates.

Donald Trump famously practiced the art and gave White House and advisory posts to members of his own wider family (although he actually denied his nephew essential medical care).

Is there a word for favouring one’s father? Not paternalism, which refers to a benign form of dictatorship. Can we invent one, as it seems to be a thing? Maybe paterism?

Anyone in public office who offers jobs or awards to people close to them can expect to be ridiculed and criticised. This is true even where the recipient genuinely deserves the honour – those decisions should be left to others.

As a councillor I was well versed in the need to declare an interest when a proposal was being discussed.  That would certainly have included instances when members of my family or close friends would have been affected, for better or worse, by the outcome. If in doubt we were encouraged to take advice, if necessary from the Council’s Monitoring Officer (usually the Head of Legal Services). If the interest was substantial or pecuniary then I would remove myself from the debate and not vote. This is standard practice in local government.

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My highlights of International Women’s Day

The internet always goes wild for International Women’s Day. If we thought more of improving women’s lives for the rest of the year, the world would be a much better place for half its citizens. For example, how can you have decent economic growth if women are being forced out of work because of the cost of childcare.

From the Guardian:

Data for 2021 showed the gender pay gap widening four times faster in the UK than the average for the OECD, primarily due to the financial penalty from motherhood.

Larice Stielow, a senior economist at PwC, said: “An 18-year-old woman entering the workforce today will not see pay equality in her working lifetime. At the rate the gender pay gap is closing, it will take more than 50 years to reach gender pay parity.

“The motherhood penalty is now the most significant driver of the gender pay gap and, in the UK, women are being hit even harder by the rising cost of living and increasing cost of childcare.

“With this and the gap in free childcare provision between ages one and three, more women are being priced out of work. For many it is more affordable to leave work than remain in employment and pay for childcare, especially for families at lower income levels.”

That said, here are some of my highlights of yesterday:

Wera calls for misogyny to be made a hate crime.

Predictably the replies are an absolute bin fire.

Later she talked about the importance of understanding the impact of sexual assault on victims:

Gender pay bot

Social media is awash with platitudes from every organisation in the country, trying to show that they are there with the women.  Gender Pay Bot’s Twitter account calls them to account by highlighting their gender pay gap.

Of course all of this is possible because Jo Swinson introduced the legislation requiring companies with more than 250 employees to report on their gender pay gap.

It’s worrying that so many of them are NHS related;

The Daily Express had a gap of 15.7%, although this is down 6.8% in the last year.

Sotheby’s is doing terribly.

Emma Ritch Law Clinic

Some of you may remember Emma Ritch, (pictured here back right) who spoke at our 2018 fringe meeting at Brighton Conference on how Scotland’s feminist and LGBT organisations worked together to help achieve better rights and status for all. She talked about the concept of “radical kindness” which underpinned relations between these organisations – something that we could do with in these awful times.

Sadly, Emma died suddenly in July 2021. She was an outstanding feminist, with the sharpest and wisest of minds, the best sense of humour and a flair for snazzy pencil cases. Scotland misses her a lot. Yesterday, Glasgow University announced that a law clinic, specialising in rape and sexual violence, opening this September would be named for her.

From Glasgow University’s announcement:

As well as offering legal advice, through a specially constituted legal practice unit, the Emma Ritch Law Clinic will offer innovative teaching to students, enabling the next generation of Scottish lawyers to gain critical legal and ethical skills. It will also produce valuable research, providing an insight into the difference that specialist legal advice and representation can make to complainers’ experiences of prosecution, and gather data to better understand why cases might fail to reach, or progress, through the criminal justice system.

The Clinic will also instil awareness of trauma-informed lawyering, and the practice of criminal law, an area with longstanding issues in terms of recruitment and retention.

Engender’s Making work visible

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Shirley Williams: Liberal Lion and Trailblazer

When Shirley Williams died in April 2021, Sir Ed Davey paid tribute to a “a Liberal lion” and remembered her as a “trailblazer” and an “inspiration to millions”. 

There were many other affectionate tributes. Unusually for a politician, Shirley was widely loved during her lifetime. David Steel once described her as “a national treasure, rather like the late Queen Mum”. As a Liberal Democrat icon, she stood alongside Paddy Ashdown and Charles Kennedy.

Shirley Williams was, after all, the most popular of the “Gang of Four” who broke away from Labour in 1981 and formed the Social Democratic Party (SDP). Roy Jenkins and David Owen provided the political weight and gravitas, but Shirley provided the personal warmth and empathy. With her stunning victory at the Crosby by-election in November 1981, she was the first candidate to be elected as an MP under the new party’s banner. “Shirl the Pearl”, as she was known, later became the first president of the SDP. 

Even so, her broad and enduring popularity was, in some ways, remarkable. Shirley last held government office in 1979 –as education secretary in Jim Callaghan’s ill-fated Labour government, from when she was best remembered for expanding the comprehensive school system. She passed up the chance to contest the SDP’s first leadership election in 1982 and lost Crosby the following year, a victim of adverse boundary changes, and never returned to the Commons. 

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Democracy in Israel and Palestine

If you have been following to news from Palestine & Israel in recent weeks, you will have seen the appalling rise in violence which has left many dead and even more severely injured on both sides.  The violence reached a peak last week with what can only be described as a pogrom carried out by Israeli Settlers on the Palestinian village of Harawa after two young Israelis had been killed by a Palestinian gunman.

This rise in violence is worrying and is no doubt connected with the threats to democracy by the new Israeli Government under Binyamin Netanyahu which includes, for the first time in Israeli history, two far right extremist Parties, the Religious Zionists led by Bezalel Smotrich, and Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) led by Itamar Ben Gvir and also by total lack of democracy in the Occupied Palestinian Territories where elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council & President haven’t been held since 2006.

In Israel, as part of the Coalition agreement for the new Israeli Government, Netanyahu is introducing what he calls “Judicial Reforms” that will have the effect of:

  1. severely curtailing Judicial Independence in Israel,
  2. limiting the Israeli Supreme Court’s ability to overturn laws passed by the Knesset that that violate fundamental rights protected by Israel’s “Basic Laws”,
  3. dilute the role of the Attorney General in giving legal advice and
  4. give Ministers more powers to act without fear of Judicial Review.

This means that the Israel Judiciary will no longer have a role in containing the excesses of the Government, a Government that seems hell bent on creating an apartheid regime in Occupied Palestine and silencing its critics in Israel.

For the last two months, since the Judicial Reform legislation was published, every Saturday night ten of thousands of Israelis have been taking to the streets in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Haifa and many other towns across Israel to protest against these proposals.  Even President Herzog has called for the Government to pause the legislation and reach a compromise with its opponents.  Even here in the UK, Israelis living here have protested outside the Israeli Embassy.  This week, reservist pilots in the Israeli Air Force have refused to attend training days in protest against these “Reforms” and other reservists (and most adults under 45 in Israel are in the reserves) are also refusing to show up for duty.  Many are realising that the Occupation of Palestine is what is destroying democracy in their country.

In Palestine, the lack of any democratic outlet for change is driving many, especially younger Palestinians to support new armed militant groups such as Lion’s Den.  The old guard around Mahmoud Abbas is clinging to power but there is a vacuum behind them. This has allowed the militants groups like Hamas, Islamic Jihad and now Lion’s Den to try to fill the gap because they see no other obvious possibility for achieving self-determination and statehood.  The Israeli Government hasn’t helped, with its very heavy-handed raids on these militant groups’ safe houses in the Occupied Territories, killing not only members of these groups but also civilians.

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We can’t ignore AI – we should teach it politics


Embed from Getty Images

On Monday evening, BBC Radio 4 presented a documentary on ChatGPT, the artificial intelligence star of the moment. The programme was partly written by ChatGPT.

I am a fan of AI. It has the potential to transform our access to information, our understanding, our health services and much more. If it would only get it right.

Whether you like the current generation of AI (services like ChatGPT) or not is like Marmite. More on Marmite below.

ChatGPT is good at national party and international politics. But it can be rubbish at a constituency level. Some answers are like a teenager grabbing random books in the library. Some old. Some newer. Some right. Some wrong. Superficially believable results may be completely wrong because I can’t check the “facts” it gives us.

ChatGPT can make serious errors about recent political events, including by-elections. We need to teach AI to get it right to ensure misinformation does spread.

We can’t walk away from AI. The reality is that it is here to stay. You can no more resist it than some early authors resisted word processors and some ledger clerks resisted computers. But we can make it better.

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Welcome to my day: 6 March 2023 – it’s beginning to feel a lot like Conference…

It’s been a long time since I attended a Federal Conference, or even a Regional one, in person, and the world feels like a somewhat different place post-COVID. But I don’t have a role or function, and it’ll be nice to simply try to take the pulse of the Party less than two years before a General Election.

I suppose that my key question will be, “does the Party offer a sense that it has a destination in mind?”, and it isn’t clear to me yet that there is one, other than give an impression that we’re better than the Conservatives. That’s a pretty low bar, if we’re being honest.

And yes, I support the Party’s line on the issues it has chosen to feature – river pollution, carers and competence in government are all worthy causes. But are we talking about the issues that engage the wider public? We’re cautious (at best) on Europe, even though it’s now widely acknowledged that the trade barriers between the United Kingdom and its nearby markets are the cause of slower economic growth and thus less resources to share around. We’re keen to offer financial support to those struggling with higher mortgages, heating and food bills. But that’s reactive rather than strategic.

We’ll be talking about a fairer society too, which vaguely troubles me, as fairness is a deeply subjective term, very much an “eye of the beholder” concept. But the motion to be debated on Saturday week does offer some meaningful choices, as long as we campaign on them after they’re adopted. Perhaps I shouldn’t mention Europe at this point…

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Wera Hobhouse calls for action to tackle eating disorders

Anyone who has supported a loved one with an eating disorder will appreciate Wera Hobhouse’s tireless efforts to get better support and services for those living with these terrible and distressing conditions.

I know first hand how horrendous it is to watch someone suffering in this way. The agony that my loved one went through will stay with me forever, as will all the related anxiety. And I really appreciated that Wera drew attention to eating disorders in men for that reason.

What made things much worse is that there was so little in the way of practical support available. It is great to know that we have a champion in Parliament who gets this and who is fighting for more.

This Eating Disorders Awareness Week, Wera held a Westminster Hall Debate. She called for action to tackle an epidemic of eating disorders. She asked for a targeted strategy for eating disorders to tackle the waiting times for treatment for children and adults, provide training for health and education staff to recognise the signs that an eating disorder might be developing, earlier intervention and evidence based treatments.

The full text of her speech is below:

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Northern Ireland

It may be that the British lion may be learning how to wag its Irish tail instead of the reverse. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has negotiated a settlement of the Northern Ireland Protocol which has bedevilled UK-EU and UK-US relations and Britain’s standing in the world since the 2016 Brexit Referendum.

The chief stumbling block has been Northern Ireland’s ultra-nationalist, ultra-conservative, ultra-protestant Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). For them Brexit was an opportunity to reverse the 1998 Good Friday Agreement which they never liked even though it ended the Troubles in Northern Ireland.

The DUP’s hopes were seemingly dashed by Boris Johnson’s “Get Brexit it Done” settlement which moved the UK-EU border to the Irish Sea and left Northern Ireland in Europe’s Single Market and Customs Union. Then faith was restored by Johnson’s threat to withdraw from the agreement he made, damaging relations with the EU; undermining belief in British adherence to international law and, because the US is a guarantor of the Good Friday Agreement, making an eagerly-sought US-UK trade deal a distant prospect.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has replaced ideologically-driven threats with pragmatic compromise and negotiations and come up with what is called the “Windsor Framework.” It is not perfect. It leaves the EU with a great deal of say in Northern Irish affairs, but is possibly the best deal that could be secured with a weak British hand.

For a start, the Windsor Framework establishes “red and green lanes” for goods entering Northern Ireland from mainland Britain. The green lanes are for goods staying in the province and are customs free. The red lanes for goods transiting on to Eire and are subject to EU tariffs.

Of perhaps greater importance is the sovereignty issue. Disputes will now be discussed by a joint EU-UK consultative body with final arbitration by an independent arbitrator working within the framework of international law. The Stormont Assembly will have a say through a mechanism called “The Stormont Brake”, but this cannot be used for “trivial reasons” and Westminster can veto Stormont.

The “Stormont Brake” can be used if the Assembly is in session. At the moment it is not because the DUP refuses to attend as a protest against the Northern Ireland Protocol.

The DUP has neither accepted nor rejected the “Windsor Framework.” It has said it wants time – lots of it – to consider its options. Sunak has said fair enough. Take all the time you want. But the framework will be approved with or without your support. This is no empty threat. The prime minister has support from the Opposition Labour Party and Liberal Democrats and can easily outvote the DUP and any rebel right-wing Tories.

Covid-19

Donald Trump’s number one conspiracy theory may be right. That is according to FBI Director Christopher Wray.  Covid-19 may have originated in a Wuhan laboratory specialising in coronavirus research. America’s Department of Energy agrees with Christopher Wray and even the World Health Organisation is making noises about reversing its previous position and saying that the claims are worth a fresh investigation.

However, the CIA and other US intelligence agencies continue to report that the most likely scenario is that the virus jumped from animals to humans via the Wuhan food market. The vast majority of the world’s scientists agree with the spooks at Langley, Virginia and the White House says there is no firm proof either way.

Unsurprisingly, the Chinese steadfastly maintain that the virus started in animals, not their lab. In fact, some officials have come up with a counter conspiracy claim that the virus was manufactured in a US research facility in Ft. Derick, Maryland and released in Wuhan by American agents.

Beijing is determined to avoid any blame. Not only does it undermine their claims to scientific competency, it also lays them open to lawsuits. Notoriously litiginous Trump has demanded that the Chinese pay $10 trillion and thousands of Floridians have signed up for a class action suit with Miami-based law firm the Bernard Law Group. Of course, the chances of collecting any money is nil.

Whether the virus started in a lab or a bat is important to know. The knowledge will help public health officials to prevent future pandemics. For that reason alone the lack of Chinese transparency is disturbing.

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Observations of an expat: A Chinese peace

The Chinese Ukrainian peace kite is unlikely to remain aloft for long for several reasons:

  • Neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians are prepared – yet – to throw in the towel.
  • Vladimir Putin cannot afford failure.
  • Neither Ukraine nor its NATO backers can afford failure.
  • A Chinese brokered peace is unacceptable to the US because it increases Beijing’s position in the world at Washington’s expense.

However, both Volodomyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin will meet President Xiping, foreign minister Wang Yi and any other Chinese emissaries. Zelensky needs to be seen to be willing to talk to keep Beijing from supplying Putin with weapons and Putin must do the same to secure the weapons.

In one sense, the Chinese are the ideal peace brokers. Putin is the aggressor. He is the one who must be persuaded to stand down. The Chinese are the only ones with sufficient leverage over the Russian leader. The Turks have tried and failed. So have the Israelis. The US and its allies have ruled themselves out by supplying weapons to Ukraine.

In the best diplomatic traditions, Beijing’s 12-point proposal manages to annoy both sides in the conflict while at the same time projecting lofty aspirations with the minimum of detail.

The proposal calls for respecting sovereignty. Russia has clearly breached Ukraine’s sovereignty. Abandon the Cold War mentality. This is a state of mind for which both Russia and NATO could be blamed. Protect civilians and POWs. Great, and remember Bucha, Kharkhiv, Mariupol and Kherson. Resolve the humanitarian crisis, which has created 6.8 million Ukrainian refugees. Promote post-war reconstruction which so far is estimated to cost Ukraine $1 trillion. Stop threatening to use nuclear weapons; a threat which only Putin has used. And end unilateral sanctions which means sanctions not approved by the UN and would undermine Western sanctions against China.

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Irredentism: the greatest geopolitical threat of our time

Today, many countries around the world are nation-states: sovereign political entities in which one “nation” (a particular ethnic, cultural, or linguistic group) comprises a large majority of a country’s population. In a way, it does make sense; after all, it is easier to communicate with people who speak the same language as you. But some issues do arise: what about people groups who fall outside of the “nation”? What if members of your “nation” live outside of your country’s borders? Despots of all creeds have answered these questions with the same response: genocide and irredentism.

Irredentism is defined in the Free Dictionary as “a national policy advocating the acquisition of some region in another country because of common linguistic, cultural, historical, ethnic, or racial ties.”  This is a fair description of Russia’s and China’s “national policy” towards Ukraine (especially Crimea and the other Russian-majority areas of the country) and Taiwan, respectively. Putin has been loudly proclaiming the Russian people’s historical rights and interests in that country whilst denying that the Ukrainians even exist as a distinct people. Meanwhile, the People’s Republic of China is building up its military to potentially invade the island of Taiwan, which the Beijing government regards as a breakaway province.

Both geopolitical crises have the potential to spiral into a new global conflict, and this threat has historical precedence. Irredentism is the intersection between ethnonationalism and war, as irredentist movements can spiral from a “political talking point” to an invasion.

National unification appeals to people who oppose an irredentist regime, hence irredentism’s political usefulness to dictators. In Russia, for example, Putin’s popularity increased following the annexation of Crimea. Irredentist regimes thrive in an environment of perceived persecution, whether the Germans in the Sudetenland or Russians in the eastern and southern Ukraine, so the irredentist can claim that the invasion of a neighbouring country can be justified as “helping your own”.

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Securing a liberal Britain in hard times

Getting elected locally, becoming a citizen and living in freedom or security should be tackled in the right order. I just did the opposite. Arriving from Australia as an immigrant in 2016 (pre Brexit), getting elected a Councillor last May and becoming an UK citizen last month was a journey that made me think: how do I as a LibDem contribute to the safety, security and sustainability of our country? There are no easy answers but some clear pointers to what we might need: progressive, practical and patriotic steps to make Britain its liberal best.

I wrote back in March 2022 on LibDem Voice (Defence and Security: at the heart of liberal societies) about a growing think tank based at the National Liberal Club that reaches hundreds across the UK and the world by hybrid talks and expert discussions. I am also an Armed Forces Champion of my Council (shared with a colleague) with responsibility to the whole community. Veterans, serving members, cadets and their families expect all local governments to keep the covenant between community and those who serve.

But that is the smaller arena and the local or narrow pathway.

We as LibDems are at the heart of many national debates on matters of significance: the war in Ukraine, the risk of further Russian aggression, the role of China as a strategic competitor to our internationalist and liberal values for starters. Times have never been harder since the 1980s.

We also remain the voice of many who are deeply disgusted by this shabby Conservative government and are unconvinced by the rising Labour Opposition. Data and polling may suggest that our voters and supporters are well informed, educated and engaged on the big issues – the environment, education, cost of living crisis economics and social justice. But we are also the proud custodians of traditions of liberalism, social democracy and dissenting progressive values that reflect on the defence of the realm, the international order and our broader obligations to allies, partners and neighbours.

The emergence of an associated organisation “LibDem Friends of the Armed Forces” is no surprise. The upcoming debate at York Conference in less than three weeks on an enhanced/evolved defence policy fit for purpose and electorally sound for the times we face is another natural step.

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World Book Day – What are your favourite books?

Today is World Book Day, a chance to celebrate our favourite books and authors and talk about what we love to read.  So, please use the comments to talk about your favourite political books and those you read for pleasure.

One of the things which upsets me most about Long Covid is that I have been able to read so little for pleasure. Normally I’d read one book a week. Last year,  in total, I read one whole book and two half books.  However, in January alone, I’d already surpassed that. February has not been so good as I’ve been slowly increasing my hours at work which has used up pretty much all my energy.

It’s always good on World Book Day to scroll through social media and see all the children heading off to school dressed up as their favourite character. It’s a testament to the creativity and ingenuity of their parents. All too often they find out at 8pm the night before that such an event is happening and have to magic an outfit out of nowhere.  And as we come up to International Women’s Day next week, it’s worth mentioning that it is likely to be the unseen and under-appreciated work of women that  makes these things happen.

My favourite political book of all time has got to be the memoir of the 1992 US presidential campaign written by James Carville and Mary Matalin. He was Clinton’s campaign director, she was a senior member of the Bush campaign. They fell in love just before the campaign kicked off.  All’s Fair – Love, war and running for President was their hilarious account of that campaign, which shows their eccentricities off at beautifully and is a superb piece of history.

Purple Homicide, by John Sweeney, is a brilliant reminder of one fo the 1997 election’s non Lib Dem highlights. Former BBC journalist  Martin Bell took on Conservative MP Neil Hamilton in an anti-sleaze campaign after Hamilton was implicated in the Cash for Questions affair.  Again, this account is hilarious, getting its title from the “homicidal purple” trousers worn by Christine Hamilton to a dramatic encounter on Knutsford Heath.

Shirley Williams’ autobiography Climbing the Bookshelves is another special book for me. Shirley is one of my political heroes and when I read it I hear the words as she would speak them. From her evacuation across the Atlantic as a child during the war to her election as an MP, to her career as a Labour minister and then with the SDP and Liberal Democrats.

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Let’s take a look at the Lib Dems

This post was originally published in Italian on 17th February in the daily La Ragione (page 6). We offer you a translation.

The formation of the UK Lib Dems is very interesting. The party is actually very young. It was formed in 1988 from the merger of the traditional Liberal Party with the Social Democrats, a group born in the early 1980s from the split between the reformist and moderate wings of Labour. Thus, from this union that took place during the Thatcher period, a completely new political entity arose in the cultural setting, but also in the political structure.

Agile, mobile, attentive to the movements and moods of every segment of society which in those years was undergoing a great transformation, the new party established itself as a new presence, above all for its roots in the regions. The Liberal Democrats immediately assumed the vocation of embracing the demands that are not limited only to the City. The big idea is not to focus on Westminster, and not restrict itself to established boundaries, geographically and socially.

As a third force in the country, the new party speaks a new language, and makes communication a strong point. It is a place of continuous comparisons, of calling into question certainties, of overcoming ancient belongings and of the ability to bring the kaleidoscopic world of liberal culture to life in a single but multi-facetted entity.

Inform, inform, inform! This is the motto. But also inform itself and citizens every day about what is happening throughout the territory. From Scotland to Wales, but also and above all in every single municipality, every district, town council,  etc. The imperative is to be present everywhere, as much in a community of five hundred inhabitants as in hundreds of thousands.

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Marriage age raised to 18

I must admit that I hadn’t been following the process of raising the age of marriage or civil partnership to 18 in England and Wales, so it rather took me by surprise when it was announced that the Marriage and Civil Partnership (Minimum Age) Act 2022 was being implemented on 27th February.  It was introduced as a Private Members Bill by a Conservative MP, supported by the Girls Not Brides Coalition, but quickly gained cross-party support.

We may wonder why such an Act was necessary. After all very few people marry these days in their teens, let alone at 16 or 17.

When I was a teenager I attended a friend’s wedding, when she was just 16. She wasn’t pregnant or forced into the marriage. She later moved away and I lost touch so I have no idea whether the marriage survived. The social and moral context was very different back then – unmarried couples simply did not live together, effective contraception and legal abortion were not available, single pregnant girls were expected to marry or give up their babies for adoption, and sex before marriage, let alone outside it, was socially frowned upon.  In fact, marriage was for many the only way they could enjoy a sex life. It seems like another world!

At that time, the age of majority was 21, so anyone marrying below that age in England or Wales had to have permission from their parents. The rules were different in Scotland so young couples would elope to Gretna Green, just over the border, to get married.

The main intention of the Act is to protect young people from being forced into marriage. There is a wide spectrum of cultural practice, across the world and reflected in the UK, ranging from arranged marriage to forced marriage, sometimes at a very young age.  I can understand why parents might explore their networks, and maybe using a matchmaker, to find a suitable partner for their son or daughter. This may be seen as sensible in a culture where young people have limited opportunities to meet socially, and indeed is not so very different from using a dating app. But most of us would want that to be the potential starting point for a relationship, which either partner could drop out of at any time.

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Mad about the menopause

I am far from the first to notice that menopause is having its moment.

The tragic death of Nicola Bulley recently brought out the cultural taboos in this area. Was it, for example, misogynistic or open and empathetic for the police to mention her struggle with the menopause?

The Labour Party launched a menopause action plan yesterday, particularly aimed at businesses with over 250 employees. The Local Government Association has an excellent menopause policy. Even the hapless Tory government had an HRT taskforce; though it disbanded it after a mere four months! Businesses are catching up with the menopausal pound: ranging from Boots selling natural alternatives to HRT and “menopause face creams” to, more comically, Primark selling a menopause (anti hot flush) nightdress.

We are told that 30% of women aged 50-64 are economically inactive and one in ten of women aged 45-55 leave a job because of menopausal symptoms. There is certainly a problem.

One very odd thing about mainstream media discussions on this subject is the level of squeamishness. Vague comments are made about women being a bit cross and a bit sweaty! I am going to be a little more frank.  Liberals are not known for their prudishness but please stop reading now gentle LDV reader if you are one of the exceptions with a nervous disposition.

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Has Sunak killed the United Kingdom?

On 27th February 2023 Rishi Sunak announced a decisive breakthrough in negotiations with the EU on trade with Northern Ireland, but is this a successful deal for NI, or does this deal signal the final knife through the heart of the United Kingdom?

Thanks to Sunak’s deal we now have a United Kingdom of two halves. In Great Britain our businesses continue to suffer the indignities of Brexit, with their access to the European markets at best restricted and at worse blocked, whilst in Northern Ireland businesses now have far fewer restrictions on their access to that market.

Sunak, in his own words, made clear that “If we get this right, if we get this framework implemented, if we get the executive back up and running here, Northern Ireland is in the unbelievably special position – unique position in the entire world, European continent – in having privileged access, not just to the UK home market, which is enormous, the fifth biggest in the world, but also the European Union single market. Nobody else has that. No one. Only you guys. Only here. And that is the prize.”

What Sunak has done is created a clear and irrevocable split between Great Britain and Northern Ireland which, whilst initially will be lauded, will rapidly turn to discontent in Great Britain, starting in Scotland and Wales, but in the longer term also in the Regions of England.

Sunak even acknowledged the divide when he stated that “I can tell you, when I go around the world and talk to businesses, they know. They’re like, ‘That’s interesting, if you guys get this sorted, then we want to invest in Northern Ireland.’”

“Because nowhere else does that exist. That’s like the world’s most exciting economic zone.”

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Dydd Gŵyl Dewi Hapus

Happy St David’s Day!

When I was in school in Cardiff we used to hold an eisteddfod on the morning of March 1st (if it fell during the week) which would involve a lot of singing. Then the Governors would graciously grant us an afternoon off.

St David was born and spent his whole life in Wales, unlike the non-native saints of England and Scotland. There is plenty of historical evidence for his existence and his service as archbishop in the sixth century. He appears to have been a modest man living an ascetic life, but a charismatic speaker. His symbol is a white dove and he is known for the advice “Do ye the little things in life”, a good motto for community politics.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats are calling for St David’s Day to be a public holiday in Wales. They have tabled a Bill to Parliament which would give the Senedd powers to designate a day as such. St Andrew’s Day and St Patrick’s Day are already public holidays in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Welsh Labour, the Welsh Conservatives and Plaid Cymru all support St David’s Day becoming a public holiday, but it has been continuously blocked by the Westminster Conservative Government.

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What support do Hong Kong people need in the UK?

A few weeks ago, there were some social media feeds celebrating the 2nd anniversary of the opening of the Hong Kong British Nationality Overseas (BN(O)) scheme on the Home Office’s Twitter, such as “the UK is proud to have welcomed 144,500 people from Hong Kong”, “many Hong Kongers have said living in Britain is like coming home”.

Unfortunately not every Hong Konger in the UK feels at home.

A recent tragic story, that has been discussed a lot amongst the Hong Kong community, was that of a 27 year-old Hong Kong migrant who took her life after seven months in the UK. This news even spread to mainland China, but unfortunately was even less known here in the UK, where this heartbreaking tragedy took place.

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Shocking crime news from Greater Manchester

To every Mancunian there is something special about this great city, this island of Greater Manchester.

Befittingly, Greater Manchester has a large Metropolitan Police Force GMP covering Manchester and its satellite cities of Salford, Wigan, Bolton, Bury, Rochdale, Oldham, Tameside, Stockport and Trafford, all under the vigilant eyes of Labour’s Andy Burnham as the elected GM Mayor in his crucial role as the Greater Manchester Police and Fire Commissioner.

As clockwork, GMP compiles detailed monthly crime records anonymised street-by-street into 14 ‘Categories’ in all >250 GM ‘Police Neighbourhoods’ and duly submitted them to the Home Office in London, the brain and nervous system of the police under the Conservative government. Likewise, the Home Office released the monthly crime records of each and every police force in England and Wales.

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Willie Rennie calls for action to end violence in schools

Willie Rennie has called on the Scottish Government and Scotland’s education leaders to do more to tackle the increasing problem of violence in schools.

He wrote in the Daily Record that images shown to him by a constituent of a young girl being kicked in the face by another will stay with him forever.

He said that there was a “conspiracy of silence” as those responsible didn’t admit to the extent of the problem, which led to staff at sone school taking industrial action because they didn’t feel their pleas for intervention were being heard.

He wants action to tackle a problem which has become much more severe since the pandemic closed schools for extended periods. Not only that, but there are fewer experienced staff around to help:

There has been a fall in specialist teachers, long waits for mental health treatment, a reduction in classroom assistants, insufficient educational psychologists and not enough staffed spaces to provide appropriate support to pupils. The list goes on. That needs to change.

But, he says, intervention has to be inclusive:

I am a liberal and I believe in tackling the root causes of behaviour rather than simply punishing the symptoms, so I support inclusion and the restorative approach adopted in Scottish education.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

China

China has marked the first anniversary of the Ukraine War with a pair of unsurprising foreign policy papers. The first one concentrates on the Ukraine War and proposes a well-trod and contradictory solution: Russia respects Ukrainian national sovereignty. Everyone respects Russia’s security aspirations and nobody imposes sanctions against anyone.

The second paper is more about calls for a new world order. Again, no real surprises. China is trying to re-write the international rule book by playing to the interests of the developing world in Africa, Asia and South America.

The second paper is important but China’s position on Ukraine is of more immediate interests and whether Beijing likes it or not, the two issues are clearly linked. The outcome of the Ukraine War will influence which way the global South jumps: If Ukraine wins then American influence grows. If Russia stomps Ukraine then it is a victory for Beijing as well as Moscow.

But back to China’s Ukraine paper which was preceded by foreign minister Wang Yi’s tour of Europe and participation in the Munich Security Conference. The goal of the trip was to drive a wedge between the US and its NATO allies. He failed.

Hanging over Wang’s trip was the claim by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg that China is on the cusp of supplying weaponry to Vladimir Putin. Wang Yi denied this to EU foreign affairs commissioner Josep Borrell. But at the same time, Chinese diplomats, are letting it be known that the option is on the table. And if the US pushes them too far they will use it.

START

START has stopped. To be more precise it has been suspended by Vladimir Putin. This means that the last of the US-Russian strategic arms agreements has crumbled. These treaties were key building blocks in the diplomatic structure that ended the Cold War and continues to govern East-West relations.

So what is START? Well, for a start, it is an acronym for Strategic Arms Reduction Talks. Its full name is actually New START and it replaces START One which expired in 2009 as well as START Two and three which never got off the ground and the Treaty of Moscow (aka SORT).

What does (or did) START do? It cut by 10 percent the number of strategic missile launchers of Russia and the US and set up a system of on-site inspections to verify that both sides were sticking to the agreement. The total number of launch platforms, which includes submarines, missile siloes and heavy bombers is limited to 1,550 each. It does not reduce the number of nuclear warheads they can hold, just the delivery systems. But then warheads are pretty useless if a country does not have the means to deliver them.

The START talks are the successor negotiations to the SALT (Strategic Arms Limitation) talks which started with the 1972 ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) Treaty and limited the increase in the size of the super powers’ nuclear arsenals. At the height of the Cold War the Soviet Union had an estimated 40,000 nuclear warheads and the US 30,000.

President George W. Bush started unravelling the strategic arms structure in 2001 when he withdrew from the ABM Treaty over Russian objections. START was a major foreign policy victory for the Obama Administration but in 2019 Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump withdrew from the INF Treaty which limited the deployment of Intermediate-range nuclear weapons in Europe.

New START was last treaty standing. It was due to expire in 2021, but was extended for another five years. However, the Russians have been in breach of the agreement since March 2020. That is the last time Americans were allowed to inspect Russian facilities. The initial excuse for refusing access was the pandemic. That was superseded by the Ukraine War, which, of course, is the reason for the current suspension and, as most diplomats know, there are few things more permanent than the temporary.

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Why it’s time for the Liberal Democrats to take back the mantle of freedom

The topic of freedom in politics is highly contested. For the Conservatives, in recent years,  this has centred around economic freedom. Is this still really relevant today?

Back in the 1980s, Margaret Thatcher’s programme of economic liberalisation saw an explosion in economic freedom – more people were able to purchase their own council houses and stock market novices became rich overnight following the countless moves to privatise various public utilities.

Despite regular musings by Conservative MPs that they remain the party of low taxes, personal freedom and individual responsibility,  the facts tell a different story. A recent poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies found that only 14% of voters believed the Tories had a reputation for lowering taxes.

Personal freedom has also become a significant grey area for the Tories. The majority of the parliamentary party backed vaccine passports in 2021 – something that the Liberal Democrats firmly opposed, with Ed Davey labelling the scheme at the time ‘a grotesque misuse of government diktat’.

While the Covid-19 pandemic undoubtedly  required great vigilance and government intervention, any party that holds a belief in liberal values and is a carrier of the torch of freedom should understand the importance of not enforcing schemes on the populace that could be a precursor for revolt. Whilst vaccine passports were introduced, they remained deeply unpopular for their time in existence.

Any discussion about personal freedom would not be complete without the attack on the Human Rights Act by the government. Prior to its introduction in 1998, if an individual wanted to challenge a government act as unlawful, they would be required to invoke our ‘common law’ tradition of the rule of law. Essential rights were established on a case-by-case basis, regardless of the right being discussed.

With the passing of the HRA, the UK constitutionalised the common law – and gave more power to the individual to secure protections guaranteed by the state. No longer were people subject to the whims of the particular case. Human rights were now universal and guaranteed legal certainty.

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Observations of an expat: Happy Birthday

Fans of our foreign editor, Tom Arms, will be delighted to hear that he has started a weekly podcast, Transatlantic Riff.

Happy Birthday Ukraine, the Russian people, Europe, America and all the rest of the world.

The Ukraine War is one year old. An estimated 300,000 lives have been lost so far – and that is only the soldiers.

More than 5.2 million refugees have fled the fighting, mainly women and children who have left fathers, sons and husbands behind. Those who remain in Ukraine live in daily fear of Russian missile attacks. Many are without water, electricity or heating.

The ripple effects of the Ukraine War have encompassed the world. A trillion dollars’ worth of damage has been inflicted on Ukraine and the war has so far cost Europe and America an estimated $215 billion and this is only the beginning.

The Ukraine War has closed key gas and oil pipelines from Russia to Europe and forced Europeans to seek alternative supplies from America and Middle East. This in turn has pushed energy prices to crisis levels.

Inflation has been fuelled by energy problems and food shortages as Ukraine, Russia and Belarus are major suppliers of grain, sunflower oil and fertilisers.

The war has also produced tectonic diplomatic shifts. It has united Ukrainians and provided them with a clear national identity reinforced by a charismatic leader. Yes, Putin is right when he says Ukraine’s history is closely linked with that of Russia. But its future is not.

The war has also re-united Europe and NATO. For years America has complained about low levels of European defense spending, especially in Germany. Donald Trump even threatened to withdraw from the alliance. That has ended. Europeans are spending more and sending aid to Ukraine. The EU financial aid is actually $5 billion more than America’s $45 billion. But America’s total commitment of humanitarian, financial and military -dwarves the contributions of all the other countries combined.

Putin claims that his invasion is a reaction to NATO enlargement. If so, the war has become a self-fulfilling prophecy as Sweden and Finland have reversed their long-standing commitments to neutrality to apply for NATO membership and Ukraine is now a de facto member of the Western Alliance, but still outside the ultimate protection of Article Five.

Vladimir Putin’s repeated threats – veiled and unveiled – to use nuclear weapons has also revived the fear of a nuclear war. As has his announcement this week that he is suspending Russia’s in arms reduction talk, formally ending inspections of nuclear weapons sites and increasing Moscow’s nuclear arsenal.

On the ground, both sides are literally dug in with trenches crisscrossing in a general north-south gash across the Eastern part of Ukraine. Russia is believed to be on the verge of throwing another 200,000 conscripts against the Ukrainian frontline. The Ukrainian, for their part are hoping that poorly-led Russian troops will exhaust themselves against their defensive wall and fall to a Ukrainian counter offensive in the spring.

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The defence of Ukraine: the fight for liberal values

On 24th February 2022 an old friend sent me a Facebook direct message.  He apologized to me if he had ever spoken the threat of President Vladimir Putin’s Russia down.  This was after years of debating and getting to know each other on the University Model United Nations (MUN) Conference circuit.  I had won awards for representing Russia on the MUN Security Council passionately and accurately.  The invasion of Ukraine hadn’t begun.  It had begun 8 years before.

What followed on 24th February 2022 was not necessarily inevitable, but our country and the West need to face up to the truth that our actions and inactions made it more likely.  Simply put, our inadequate responses to Putin’s escalating behaviour over the years led us to this point.  For years we postponed the question of standing up to Putin.  In return he smelled our fear.  The tragic irony is that if we acted then the potential costs would be minimal compared to now.  By acting late there are no guaranteed safe ways out of this situation.  Thus are the costs of appeasing bullying on an international scale.

Putin’s Russia is conducting a war against liberal values and any semblance of a liberal rules based international order.  The United Nations Charter enshrines the right of all countries to determine their own foreign policy.  It also recognizes the right of countries to resist invasion from another sovereign state and for allied nations to provide all necessary aid to maintain that resistance.

What should our stance be as a party?  In my opinion a Liberal Foreign Policy should not be a pacifist foreign policy when Europe’s liberty is under threat.  Our party should be urging our government to convene with Europe to help create a continent wide action plan for every willing European nation to do their best to match, and hopefully exceed Russia’s arms production.  Ways to finance such efforts will need to be found.  Significant windfall taxes on large and thriving energy companies could help in this.  Ukraine should certainly not be begging for anything from us at this stage.

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Spring Conference – Get your awkward questions in….

One of the important bits of our internal party democracy is that each of the Federal Committees needs to submit a report to Conference, which is subject to a vote. The chair of the Committee also takes questions at Conference.

These accountability sessions are often boring, but can, occasionally, make important changes.

Back in 2021, a member used the report session on the Federal Board to submit a request for a separate vote which ended the Steering Group project. This had been introduced as a way of streamlining the decision-making process which many people, myself included, saw as reducing accountability. I was very annoyed that my mandate as a directly elected Board member had been interfered with in this way.

The irony of this is that that vote would have passed if the “payroll” vote had been around. Although the Conference was online, our MPs and senior office bearers were actually in Canary Wharf, where Ed Davey was going to give his leader’s speech to an audience for the first time since the pandemic.

The opportunities for decent scrutiny in the party are diminishing rapidly, so the Conference session is an important opportunity for members to have their say.

The committee reports have now been published and there’s a lot to chew over.  New appointments to the Federal Appeals Panel, changes to the disciplinary process, new affiliated organisations to approve and work plans for all the committees are in there. I was drawn to something a bit spicy that departing Federal People Development Committee Chair Mary Regnier Wilson said in her report as it chimed with the article I wrote on Saturday about the need for us to develop a compelling pitch for people’s votes.

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Knowsley, immigration, Prevent and the return of the Far Right

Over the weekend, further anti-migrant protests continued in Rotherham and elsewhere following protests in Knowsley last week held outside a Hotel housing asylum seekers.  Roughly 300 people from the local area were involved initially, before around 150 far-right protesters joined later. Some threw fireworks and a group attacked a police van with hammers before setting it alight. One police officer and two members of the public suffered light injuries. Fifteen people were arrested on suspicion of violent disorder, mostly from the local area.

Far-right agitators had played a significant part in the protest from the start. A video purporting to show an encounter between a 15-year-old girl and a 25-year-old man asking for her phone number was shared heavily, initially in fascist circles, with the unfounded claim that the man was an asylum seeker. It quickly gained a wider audience.

Three days before, the far-right group Patriotic Alternative had turned up outside the Hotel with a banner reading, “Europe belongs to the European.” Members distributed several hundred leaflets with the slogan, “5-star hotels for migrants whilst Brits freeze.”

Two days prior to Knowsley, in the House of Commons, Home Secretary Suella Braverman welcomed the Shawcross review of Prevent, including its judgement that the programme had laid too much emphasis on the danger presented by extreme right ideology. “While obscuring the Islamist threat,” the home secretary told MPs, “Prevent has defined the extreme right-wing too broadly, encompassing the respectable right and centre-right.”

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