Elf Davey

Thanks to Mark Pack for this bit of Christmas silliness.

 

 

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English Devolution White Paper: a view from the hyper-local sector

Mark Hofman’s interesting critique of the recent English Devolution White Paper is, effectively, a plea to retain decision making closer to communities. And, of course, devolving powers to a body further removed from the people it serves is in danger of resembling an oxymoron – larger councils, covering relatively vast geographic areas, are less likely to understand the needs of less homogeneous, less visible communities.

From the perspective of a Parish Council Chair though, what is most depressing about the White Paper is the way in which it completely disregards an entire tier of local government, the Town and Parish Councils of England. 10,000 councils and parish meetings, 100,000 councillors, all dismissed as an apparent irrelevance. And yet, the Government were so close to getting it.

The White Paper states:

“For hyper-local issues, communities should be empowered to make change happen – such as taking over ownership of treasured community assets, and working with civic society organisations to drive community improvements”

but in communities across the country, Town and Parish Councils are already doing just that. And, as principal authorities grapple with financial crises, our tier is increasingly taking on those facets of local provision which enhance our communities. From youth services in Yate, to community festivals in Hereford, and parks and public toilets in Taunton, local councils are stepping in where the Counties, Unitaries and Districts can’t or won’t. Even a council as small as my village of Creeting St Peter provides essential street lighting and a Speed Indicator Device. We develop Neighbourhood Plans which help to drive house building in our communities, something that this Government is particularly keen on. Does Angela Rayner recognise that? Like heck she does.

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Mark Pack’s December report: Beating Labour and seeing off Reform in Sheffield

Happy Christmas and New Year

Once again, we end the year with more Liberal Democrat MPs, more Liberal Democrat council leaders and more Liberal Democrat councillors than we started the year. We also have in Ed Davey the main party leader who consistently comes out best in the polls.

You have already heard many statistics from myself and others about that progress, so this time I will simply share perhaps my favourite. There are now 25 Liberal Democrat MPs with a majority over 10,000… and just 5 (!) Conservatives.

That is a huge tribute to the personal vote built up by so many of our campaigners, supported by people’s kind collective efforts across the party … and a sign of just how much political trouble the Conservatives are still in. Trouble that Labour has been remarkably quick to run into too. It is impressive how many Liberal Democrat campaigners have been out in the cold and rain, winning council by-elections and building support with campaigns on topics such as the Winter Fuel Allowance.

Willis Marshall’s dramatic win for us in Sheffield recently captured much of the current state of our politics. A cracking Lib Dem campaign and candidate, scoring a 27% vote share increase to take a seat off the Labour Party in an area where we had not won before – and in the process, seeing off Reform – who surged up into second place – by just 10 votes, while the Conservative vote fell by three-quarters. In other words – our areas of success spreading, holding Labour to account and winning ourselves, rather than leaving the political space for the populists to fill.

Such successes are only possible thanks to the generous combined efforts of our members, staff, donors and volunteers. A deep thank you to everyone who has contributed to our successes this year, and the very best of luck for the challenges to come next year. But before that, I hope everyone gets a good break over Christmas and New Year.

Next steps in the party’s strategy

Work is starting on developing our new strategy for this Westminster Parliamentary cycle. How do we build on our success in electing 72 MPs this July and making gains in every round of local elections in the last Parliament? How do we spread our success more widely? And what do we need to change about how we operate to achieve that?

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Ed questions Starmer on young carers

Ed Davey used the final PMQs of the year to ask the Prime Minister for more support for young carers. Keir Starmer’s response combined warm words with no promises of action and a bit of gentle teasing about Ed’s Christmas single.

The text is below:

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For International Migrants’ Day

If I were to ask anyone how you would define yourself, I wonder what would be the answer. We all have layers of identity and it is almost impossible to “box” us in one category. I am Polish, European, and a believer. But I am also a volunteer, language enthusiast but more importantly father and a husband. We run businesses, save lives, we sing, we dance, we contribute in a number of ways, we work and pay taxes, we paint, we teach, we even write (!), we are your friends, partners, work colleagues and neighbours.

 I have always been proud to call myself a migrant. Yes, a word that polarised our political debates is strongly connected with my personal story. Today, we far too often divide people by simply describing their race or their ethnic background. 

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The English Devolution White Paper: Tearing the heart out of our local communities?

Over the past 48 hours, the government’s proposed plan for devolution has sparked significant concern. The experience in Watford and Hertfordshire serves as a warning for what could soon be faced by communities across the country. Splitting Hertfordshire into two blocks—east and west—and scrapping councils like Watford Borough Council (WBC) is not an isolated issue; it is emblematic of a broader strategy that risks undermining local democracy nationwide.

This plan is not just a restructuring of local governance; it’s a fundamental threat to the democratic principles we hold dear. Councils like WBC play a vital role in our communities. They offer essential face-to-face support at town halls and provide accessible forums for public participation in local decision-making, such as Development Management Committee (DMC) meetings, which are consistently well-attended by residents. Removing these structures will alienate the very people these institutions are meant to serve.

Moreover, councils like WBC play an important role in fostering a sense of belonging and civic pride. They organise cherished community events, including the annual fireworks display, Christmas decorations across the town, and free music and drama performances. During the pandemic, many councils were on the front line of distributing COVID-19 vaccines and raising funds for local charities. Their maintenance of parks and rollout of electric vehicle infrastructure not only add tangible value to residents’ lives but also contribute to raising property prices. These initiatives create vibrant, connected communities and demonstrate the essential role local councils play in improving quality of life.

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Labour’s WASPI betrayal – what are they thinking?

You know when politicians stand there with pledge boards and cosy up to campaigning organisations promising certain things if they should get into government?  And then don’t deliver on those promises? It doesn’t tend to end well. We in the Liberal Democrats know that more than most.

It took almost a decade of hard slog for us to recover from the damage to our reputation from the tuition fees debacle.  We learned that voters have long memories when they feel betrayed. You can’t do something bad in the first few months of an administration and get away with it.

Hot on the heels of taking away the Winter Fuel Payment from millions of pensioners on low incomes, Labour have betrayed the WASPI women they have been courting over the past decade. We’ve all seen the pictures of half the Cabinet beaming beside WASPI women. And yesterday DWP Secretary Liz Kendall said that Labour would not be paying them a penny in compensation.

This is a generation of women who started work before the Sex Discrimination Act of 1976. Many were forced to give up work – even in the Civil Service – when they got married. Others were sacked for getting pregnant. They have been at the sharp end of the Gender Pay Gap for their working lives. As well as bearing the brunt of caring responsibilities for the previous and next generations. That hasn’t changed that much in the past half century either.

And now you have the spectacle of a Government admitting that mistakes had been made and maladministration had happened but there was to be no redress.

When you think that Labour was responsible for a derisory 75p pension increase for pensioners the last time they were in power, you could be forgiven for thinking that they really were not that keen on older people.

I don’t think that that is the case for most Labour MPs and I suspect many of them will be feeling incredibly uncomfortable.

Lib Dem MPs have condemned the Government’s announcement. “A day of shame” our DWP spokesperson Steve Darling called it.

Today is a day of shame for the government.

The new government has turned its back on millions of pension-age women who were wronged through no fault of their own, ignoring the independent Ombudsman’s recommendations, and that is frankly disgraceful.

The Conservative party left our economy in a shambles, but asking wronged pensioners to pay the price of their mismanagement is simply wrong.

For years, Liberal Democrats have pushed the government to fairly compensate WASPI women in line with the Ombudsman’s recommendations. Today’s heartless decision cannot be allowed to stand and we will be pressing ministers to give those affected the fair treatment they deserve.

In his response to the Statement in the  Commons, Steve said:

First, and for the record, the Liberal Democrats played a significant part in government in introducing the triple lock for our pensioners—it is important that people acknowledge that.

The Government’s decision is nothing short of a betrayal of WASPI women. I know that, as in my constituency of Torbay, across the United Kingdom there will be millions of women who are shocked and horrified at that decision. That the Government have inherited an awful state for our economy is no excuse. That the women are being hit by the mistakes of the Tories and that the Labour Government are now using that as a shield is utterly wrong-headed. Will the Secretary of State reflect on the decision?

The matter went to the ombudsman for its considered review, and the Liberal Democrats have long supported the ombudsman’s findings. I am shocked that the Government are taking a pick-and-mix approach to those findings, and we therefore ask the Secretary of State to seriously reconsider the decision.

Twelve other Lib Dem MPs spoke in the session on the statement:

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Oh look, another leopard…

Last week, we brought you news of a consultation on the party’s internal election regulations which opened in mid December and closes on 3 January.

It’s clearly Consultation Season in the Party because members have had an email inviting them to contribute to the Federal Policy Committee’s Policy review by 6 January.

In the email, Ed Davey says:

In July, millions of people put their trust in the Liberal Democrats, many of them for the first time. They have handed us an exciting opportunity and a humbling responsibility.

So now we must continue to lead the way, with big, bold policies to tackle the challenges facing our country in the years ahead. Not just clearing up the enormous mess left by the Conservatives, but building the fair, free and open society we all believe in.

That’s why our Federal Policy Committee (FPC) has set up a new working group to develop a strategic programme for renewing our policy in the years ahead.

We want to hear from you, to help chart our course towards a policy platform that serves us well as we tackle the priorities of the British people; be a responsible opposition to the Government; finish the job against the Conservatives; and paint a clear vision of the more liberal Britain we want to build.

As a first step, we want to hear from you what are the most important areas for us to focus on, to help guide our work over the coming months.

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Harmony in politics

Wouldn’t it be wonderful if politicians from different parties sang, in harmony, from the same hymn sheet?  That may seem like a Christmas thought but a workday impossibility.

Well, some of the time some of us do.  20 years ago, a Labour peer who knew how many of us were singers but found that the parliamentary timetable prevented us from being in the same church or hall at the same rehearsal time each week suggested that we form a choir within the Parliament estate.  I was sceptical of the idea, but turned up in the crypt chapel just off Westminster Hall for the rehearsal, and have been singing with it ever since.

There are many good voices among the several thousand people working in and around Parliament.  After all, one of the basic skills shared by singers and politicians is the confidence to stand up before an audience and project your voice.  David Lammy, like me, was a boy chorister (he in Peterborough Cathedral, me at Westminster Abbey).  Bernard Jenkin almost became a professional singer; his sister did become a professional, and has been a soloist with Parliament Choir concerts.  Sarah Teather, who sang with the choir when a Liberal Democrat MP, was a wonderful soprano; she also sang solos for us.

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Labour’s devolution plans: centralisation in disguise

Labour’s new devolution plans promise to “transfer power out of Westminster,” but don’t be fooled – this isn’t about empowering communities. Instead of genuine decentralisation, Labour is un-devolving power, stripping it from local councils and concentrating it upwards into the hands of regional “super mayors.” Far from fixing local democracy, this plays into Labour’s increasingly authoritarian approach, where control is centralised under a single figure while local voices are sidelined.

The plans follow the government’s review into local government organisation and devolution, but they take entirely the wrong approach. Labour wants to abolish smaller district councils—the ones closest to residents, who understand local issues like planning, housing, and bin collections—and replace them with vast mega-authorities. Bigger doesn’t mean better. It means more bureaucracy, less accountability, and decisions made further away from the communities they affect.

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Is now the time to really commit to the campaign to Rejoin?

I’ll freely admit that I’ve been a bit sceptical about the campaign to rejoin the European Union. Not because I don’t believe that we should be within the fold rather than outside it but rather, I felt that we needed to be clear as a nation about what we really wanted of the relationship. Also, having put our neighbours through the psychodrama that was Brexit, they needed to be confident that we really meant it before attempting to negotiate a return.

The Party itself has struggled with determining a campaigning stance. Those who joined the Party as a campaigning vehicle to overturn the 2016 referendum have mostly sought an avowedly pro-Rejoin stance, whilst others, more cautious about losing potential voters, have soft-pedalled such a stance whilst indicating their support for an eventual return. The fairly disastrous campaigns of 2017 and 2019 reinforced the sense of caution.

But the news that polling by the European Council for Foreign Relations suggests that British voters are now willing to accept free movement as part of the conditions for rejoining the Single Market, perhaps changes the game.

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16 December 2024 – the overnight press releases

  • English Devolution plan: Deafening silence on social care
  • Revealed: 15 years of NHS ambulance time wasted already this winter – up from 10.5 years last year

English Devolution plan: Deafening silence on social care

Commenting ahead of government’s English Devolution plan, Liberal Democrat Local Government spokesperson Vikki Slade MP said:

The deafening silence from the government on the social care crisis is hugely concerning.

Council budgets are on the brink. The previous Conservative government pushed so many local authorities to the edge of bankruptcy.

Without properly investing in social care more of the vital services that councils provide will disappear to those who desperately need them.

Revealed:

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Trump vs FBI

Trump clashed with FBI director Christopher Wray from the start. So much so that he didn’t bother to turn up for his swearing-in ceremony in 2017.
Wray led the investigation into Russian collusion; refused to condemn his agents as products of the “deep state”; attacked the January 6 riots as “domestic terrorism” and started the probe into the Mar-a-lago documents case.
When Wray refused to do as ordered during the George Floyd riots, Trump tried to fire him. He was blocked by the Attorney General. “Over my dead body,” said Bill Barr.
This week Wray bowed to the inevitable and resigned three years before his term of office was due to expire. Trump and his MAGA-supporting Republican claimed that even though Trump appointed him, Wray was  weaponisng America’s federal law enforcement agency against thim.
Kash Patel—the man who Trump wants to replace Wray—has served notice that that he wants to weaponise the FBI in the service of President Trump.
Patel is the fiercest of fierce critics of the FBI and the Department of Justice. The title of his book about the bureau speaks volumes: “Government Gangsters.”
In it he calls for the “eradication of government the tyrant” within the FBI by firing the top ranks.” More recently he has said that he wants to sack all but 50 of the agents in the bureau’s Washington office, which employs the bulk of the FBI’s 37,000 employees.
Patel is known for his blind loyalty the president-elect in a variety of offices ranging from the Pentagon, to the Department of Justice, to the National Security Council and various campaign positions. He does, however, break with a long-standing tradition of never having served in a senior position in the FBI.
Patel has promised Trump’s opponents: “We’re coming after the people in the media and the courts and the civil service and congress who have lied to American citizens; who helped Joe Biden to rig presidential elections…. We’re going to come after you whether its criminally or civilly. We’ll figure that out. But, yeah, we’re putting you all on notice.”
Kash Patel still has to be confirmed by the Senate. That confirmation is not a foregone conclusion, but It is becoming increasingly difficult for The Republican majority to keep rejecting Trump’s nominees.

Trump vs Canada

The master of the insult—Donald J. Trump—has struck again. This time his target is Canada and all things Canadian.
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Observations of an ex pat: Syrian Butterfly

The Syrian butterfly has flapped its wings and created a political storm throughout the region and well beyond.
Russia has lost a Middle East foothold and global credibility but gained troops for its war in Ukraine. Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” has been reduced to dust. Hezollah has been cut off from its supplier.
All the Arab states will be pleased that the Persians have been humbled but will be worried that they have been backed into the nuclear corner.
China may be casting a covetous eye over the the vacuum left by a weakened Russia in Central Asia, Middle East and the  south Caucasuses. Joe Biden sees an “historic opportunity.” Donald Trump sees an exit.
Israel sees an opportunity to expand its territory and influence, and a chance to remove both Iran and Syria as major foes.
Western intelligence chiefs have expressed concerns about an upsurge of Islamic violence in the West. Those fleeing Hayat Tahrir al- Sham (HTS) may increase the number of refugees heading West. But then the millions in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Europe may more than balance the books by starting a Great Return.
Turkey is  chuffed that the organisation which they sheltered, HTS, in northwest Syria may now rule the rest of the country. This could increase their foothold in 100 square kilometres of Syrian territory and their suppression of Kurdish rebels. The Kurds are worried about the Turks, as are their Israeli and American backers.
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ALDC by-election report 12 December

Is it déjà vu? Or are there six principal council by-elections again? What’s different this week is a majority of seats sees holds in lieu of changing hands. The Tories defended their two seats, while the Lib Dems and the independents held on to their own. It was, unsurprisingly, another bad night for the governing party in Westminster, as Labour saw a collapse in vote share across the board, barely holding on to one seat and losing the other to Reform.

Starting with the good news, it was a run-away win for Cllr Andy Waters in the Dodworth ward in Barnsley MBC. The vote for the Lib Dems held steady as we secured close to half of the electorate. Here we see the Labour vote over halved, dropping them down to third overall. Congratulations to Andy and the team for all the work put into winning the seat!

Barnsley MBC, Dodworth
Liberal Democrat (Andy Waters): 1029 (49.7%, -1.7%)
Reform: 503 (24.3%, new)
Labour: 334 (16.1%, -18.5%)
Conservative: 147 (7.1%, -6.9%)
Green Party: 57 (2.8%, new)

Similarly, Labour’s vote also plummeted in Featherstone, Wakefield DC, but managed to defend their seat. Here, Christopher Howden established themselves as the definitive opposition, hopping into second place despite the lack of Lib Dem presence in the ward last time around. Thank you and well done to Christopher and the local team for the effort, this sets us up well to winning here next election!

Wakefield DC, Featherstone
Labour: 893 (42.1%, -30.7%)
Liberal Democrat (Christopher Howden): 548 (25.9%, new)
Reform: 463 (21.8, new)
Conservative: 141 (6.7%, -8.8%)
Green Party: 74 (3.5%, -8.3%)

The other amazing performance by the Lib Dems comes from Ronan McCaughey in the Ottershaw ward in Runnymede BC. The independents, who used to hold all three seats in the ward before this by-election, won with over 40% of the votes. Despite such a strong presence, however, the Lib Dem vote tripled. Thank you to Ronan and the team for the astounding result, you’ll get them next time.

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Watch: Christine Jardine on BBC Question Time yesterday

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Do you want to see Ed Davey do a sky dive?

He has rashly pledged that he will do a sky dive if his Christmas single with the Bath Philharmonia Young Carers’ Choir gets at least 10,000 downloads next week.

“Love is Enough” can be downloaded here. You all know what to do…

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Understanding the Syria conflicts 2

Although they cannot be condoned, public executions of former Syrian secret police in Damascus, Latakia and elsewhere in Syria, following the new HTS-led government, are not exactly unexpected.

When Hafez Assad came to power with the support of the Soviet Union in the 1960s, Moscow helped the new regime set up the brutal, hated Mukhabarat secret police. The Mukhabarat , led mostly by Alawites, were known not only for mass torture and ‘disappearances’ to keep Hafez Assad in power, they also had their tentacles all over the Syrian military and economy, deploying widespread ‘confiscations’. His son Bashar Assad, reportedly considered reigning in the Mukhabarat for economic reasons, but had little chance to succeed. He became dependent on the Mukhabarat to stay in power, who increased their murderous, torturing spree under his rule, and further alienated the population.

Saddam’s equally murderous and hated Mukhabarat in Iraq was also developed with Soviet assistance, as were the internal terror institutions of Algeria, set up under Chairman Boumédiène.

I am intimately acquainted with these three Soviet-initiated security institutions myself, having been arrested and imprisoned pending execution in the Algerian garrison town of Blida at the age of 19, having been dragged from my car and cuffed by the Syrian Mukhabarat on the Jordanian border for no apparent reason in the 1990s, and having shockingly located the hidden Iraqi Mukhabarat torture HQ in Basra, after giving chase with my Close Protection Team, in 2003.

Hatred of the Mukhabarat helped fuel the genuine ‘Arab Spring’ Syrian uprising from 2011, but as with the Tahir Square uprising in Egypt, and revolts in Tunisia and Libya, the young, sometimes EU-facing pro-democracy ‘moderns’ were soon swept away by the more grounded Islamists. In Egypt the Brotherhood were appreciated amongst the poor for their social support.

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Voting rights, residency, citizenship and reciprocity

On 7 June 2015, an EU member state held a referendum on a political change, one that its proponents said would send a message to the world about how enlightened the country was, but its opponents said would erode the country’s national identity. When the result was declared, it was an emphatic ‘no’, with just over 70 per cent voting the proposal down, in an 87 per cent turnout, with those who would have most benefited from the change feeling undervalued or rejected.

No, as you will have gathered, it wasn’t ‘that’ referendum held in June the following year, but the one held in Luxembourg on extending voting rights in national parliamentary elections to foreigners resident in the country. Despite only being intended for those who had a) been resident for at least ten years and b) previously voted in either European or local elections, this went too far for many in a country whose national motto translates as ‘We want to remain what we are’.

Granted it did not have the ramifications that ‘other’ referendum had, but it illustrates, even in the EU, how many still believe that voting rights in national elections should be restricted to citizens of the country concerned. In addition, in countries like Ireland, despite the role of those in the diaspora in supporting the economy through remittances over the decades, there remains opposition, sometimes vehement, to giving them the vote, even from some in the diaspora itself.

On the other hand, eligible Irish citizens registered to vote in constituencies in Northern Ireland can enrol as overseas electors, but not ones in Great Britain, and even then, they need to prove they have been born in Northern Ireland, not just anywhere on the island, and eligible for British citizenship, even if they have no intention of ever holding a British passport.

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In praise of U3A

I wouldn’t blame you if you haven’t heard of U3A, especially if you are under 50, even though it has 400,000 members across the UK. It is one of those organisations that is publicised through word of mouth, and in this case only to retired people. But it is a shining example of the type of community led collective activity that as Liberal Democrats we greatly cherish.

U3A stands for the University of the Third Age. I admit that “University” is stretching it a bit, as it doesn’t actually offer any degrees or other qualifications, which I imagine is why it tends to be known by the shortened form these days. What it does offer is learning opportunities, cultural activities and social events, all run by members with the relevant expertise.

The basic premise is that retired people have a wealth of knowledge and skills that they can share. Any member can set up a group, most of which meet in members’ homes.

My local U3A (which covers my London borough) offers an astonishing 71 different groups; study areas include art, cooking, bridge, wine tasting, history, languages, literature, music and many more. Some groups are structured around trips to concerts or theatre and others enjoy outings for cycling or walking. Monthly lectures on a variety of subjects are well attended. Two years ago I very tentatively turned up at an art group having abandoned art at the age of 14 – I was welcomed and encouraged by an experienced teacher and have really grown in confidence. I also enjoy meeting with a poetry reading group.

Members can also attend online regional and national talks, attend study days and visit other branches.

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Ed Davey on Have I Got News For You

If you follow Have I Got News For You then you will have noticed that jokes featuring Ed Davey have featured for several weeks now. So perhaps it is no surprise that he will be appearing as a guest panellist this week. Expect some gentle (and maybe robust) ribbing from the two regulars and Stephen Mangan who will be in the chair. You can watch the episode tomorrow at 9pm on BBC1 or on iPlayer.

And the panel for this evening’s edition of BBC Question Time will include Christine Jardine, bringing her usual common sense to the programme that can be so irritating. She shares the table with fellow MPs Wes Streeting and Tom Tugendhat, plus writer Emma Dabiri and Piers Morgan.

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Beware of the Leopard

There is a truth universally acknowledged that if you want to go through the motions of consulting people, but you don’t really want to encourage them to respond to you, you slip out a consultation, say, in the second week in December when nobody is really thinking about the issue in hand and close it on 3rd January.

I’m minded of the consultation process for the destruction of earth to make way for a hyperspace bypass as outlined by the brilliant Douglas Adams in “The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.”

But the plans were on display…”
“On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them.”
“That’s the display department.”
“With a flashlight.”
“Ah, well, the lights had probably gone.”
“So had the stairs.”
“But look, you found the notice, didn’t you?”
“Yes,” said Arthur, “yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard.”

So this is a roundabout way of saying that the Federal Board has slipped out a consultation on the party’s Internal Election Regulations in the second week of December that closes on 3rd January.

By doing so, they give off vibes that they are going through the motions of consultation. They want to know whether we think a larger threshold of nominations is needed. They haven’t set a figure, but will look at the result of the consultation and bring a proposal to Spring Conference. That would mean the changes would be in place for the next elections in Autumn next year.

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Understanding the Syria conflicts

As in many parts of the world, history is very much a political weapon in the Eastern Mediterranean. It is difficult to assess conflicts in Syria (and the British/Western interest) for this reason, especially for politicians unversed in the labyrinthine machinations of post-Sykes-Picot Syria and the Levant. Every phrase uttered is ‘controversial’.

There is much to be understood about the ancient past of the area, especially in relation to territorial claims and counter-claims made by different ethnic and religious factions today (..of widely-varying historical or archaeological solidity). These claims fog up the search for ‘academic’ historical understanding. The Eastern Med is identity politics on steroids.

However, relevant modern Syrian history begins not so much with the much-touted 1916 Sykes Picot agreement per se,  but with a series of related international agreements established between 1915 and 1923, initiated primarily after the start of WW1 due to the anticipated fall of the Ottoman Empire. These involved the UK, France, Russia, Turkiye, Armenia … and Arab & Kurdish groups who had opposed the ruling Ottoman Empire.

Syria’s borders today do reflect these international negotiations. Local ethnically Arab, Kurd and other populations had limited influence. There was a reluctance in the major-power negotiations to establish  countries or administrative regions based on ethnicity or religion, and a key result of that was the absence of a ‘Kurdish’ state, and the consolidation of several Arab states of mixed ethnic make up, and of varying denominations of the mostly Abrahamic religions.

These divisions were utilised after WW2 by the Soviets, with their anti-colonial narratives in the Cold War period. Recognising the history, they sought a ‘strong leader’ (in the colonial tradition) to hold all the Syrian groups together, by force or otherwise, who was not a member of one of the major dominant groups. In the early 1960s they cultivated a notable Alawite family, conveniently based in a Northern coastal area. By 1963 the brutal Ba’athist Hafez al-Assad, the future president, was already the primary power behind the scenes. He had received pilot training in the Soviet Union in the 1950s.

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Josh Babarinde introduces bill to create specific domestic abuse offences

Yesterday, Lib Dem justice spokesperson Josh Babarinde has introduced a new Bill which would create specific offences relating to domestic abuse. People convicted under these offences would not be eligible for early release schemes.

On the last day of the annual 10 days of activism to end violence against women and girls, Josh appeared on Good Morning Britain to say why this was important:

He said after he tabled the Bill, which has the backing of Women’s Aid:

Domestic abuse has a devastating impact on survivors, and the law is leaving too many of them without protection. It’s only right that all domestic abusers are convicted of precisely what they’ve done. My bill will mean abusers can no longer hide behind more general convictions they’ve relied on until now.

The loopholes in the Government’s SDS40 early release scheme have made clear that this change cannot wait any longer.

I hope the government will work with us – and with the survivors backing this bill – to finally create new domestic abuse aggravated offences and give victims and survivors the protection they deserve.

He questioned Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood. Here is their exchange in full:

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Beware asking ‘What next for Syria?’

Trigger warning – this post contains some distressing details about torture.

Wherever events in Syria are being discussed by western media and politicians, one question is asked over and over again: ‘What will happen next?’ A number of commenters on my previous article asked it, I’ve received it from friends and family and I see it all over social media.

But this isn’t a neutral question, whatever the intent of the person asking it. The inference is that ‘we’ve been here before, and look what happened’. Often it’s accompanied by the explicit ‘Syria might end up like Libya’…

I do understand why this sentiment is so common. The Arab Spring of 2011 raised hopes that were largely dashed. We’ve seen corrupt, brutal dictators replaced by elected leaders who then were replaced by new brutal dictators. The UK and our allies bear a heavy degree of responsibility for some disastrous interventions in the Middle East, not least the illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.

But please… Before asking this question, please stop and think. Imagine this was 1945. Imagine you are seeing the liberation of the Nazi concentration camps in central Europe. Imagine you are seeing for the first time the piles of corpses and the machinery of death and destruction. Imagine the tens of thousands of emaciated, brutalised survivors of those camps stumbling free.

Would you, even knowing what we know now about the brutality and corruption of Soviet rule, say to these people “ah, but what will come next?” Would it occur to you to say to the families of the survivors “what comes next may be worse?”

Posted in Op-eds | 4 Comments

Shadows over Damascus: The unravelling of a regime

Bashar al-Assad has fled, and HTS fighters, backed by Turkey, have taken control of Damascus. It immediately brought to mind the fall of Kabul to the Taliban only a few years ago—how quickly power shifted with little resistance. Afghanistan fell to the Taliban then, and now it seems Damascus may fall to HTS. Yet, this isn’t just a repeat of history; it’s a far more complex situation.

Let me be clear: Bashar al-Assad was no saint. He was a dreadful leader, willing to commit unspeakable atrocities to cling to power. Yet, I genuinely expected him to fight harder to retain his grip. It’s worth noting that Assad wasn’t originally meant to rule; that role was intended for his brother, who tragically died in a car crash. Bashar was thrust into power by circumstance, and his leadership style has always reflected that—a man eager to please but lacking the foresight for the long game.

The timing of this shift couldn’t be worse for Assad’s allies. Iran, preoccupied with Israel and Lebanon, and Russia, entrenched in Ukraine, are in no position to prop him up. In this vacuum, Turkey has made a bold move. I see this as Erdoğan’s masterstroke—a calculated “Ottoman slap,” so to speak. Make no mistake, this wasn’t an HTS-led victory in isolation. This was orchestrated in Ankara, backed by Istanbul, and serves as a clear message to the Middle East: there’s a new sheriff in town.

However, the fall of Assad comes with significant risks. History shows us what happens when iron-fisted regimes collapse without a clear successor. Iraq post-Saddam and Libya after Gaddafi offer grim lessons. Power vacuums invite chaos, and Syria could easily become a breeding ground for ISIS-like groups to reemerge. HTS doesn’t have the monopoly on violence needed to stabilize the region, leaving Syria vulnerable to prolonged instability. I wouldn’t be surprised if Turkey takes further action, possibly carving out a buffer zone to guard against Kurdish aspirations for autonomy.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 5 Comments

8 December 2024 – today’s press releases

  • Ambulance delays crisis: Streeting must make a statement to Parliament
  • Syria: Assad must now face justice for his crimes

Ambulance delays crisis: Streeting must make a statement to Parliament

Responding to reports that heart attack patients are being advised to make their own way to hospital while six of England’s ten ambulance trusts are at risk of service failure, Liberal Democrat Health and Social Care spokesperson Helen Morgan said:

The shocking reports on the state of ambulance services are extremely concerning, and show the dire situation in which the Conservative government has left so many of our vital NHS services.

Lack of services and wait

Posted in News and Press releases | Tagged , , and | 1 Comment

Syrians are free at last

Syria is free. Despite the odds, despite the indifference, despite the efforts of the ‘Global community’ to ‘freeze the conflict’ and bring ‘stability’ to a problem they wished would go away… Syrians have freed themselves. The Assad regime, rotten to the core, competent solely at oppressing Syrians, is finished. 

Across the country, Syrians from all religions, sects and ethnicities have been pulling down statues of their oppressor, but the images that probably matter most are those of people walking or being carried free from the regime’s prison network. Families being reunited with relatives they’d been told had died in captivity years ago. Children born to mothers in prison. An air force pilot imprisoned for refusing to carry out the order to bomb civilians in Hama – in 1982. Prisoners so abused that they cannot remember their own names.

Syrians are already beginning to return to their homes. From refugee camps within Syria and from surrounding countries. This is a time for optimism.

The revolution in Syria – and we can unambiguously call it that now, rather than a ‘conflict’ – has been poorly covered in the international media, with some honourable exceptions. In part I think this is down to how complex Syrian society is, in part due to how quickly and how often things changed in the country and in part because many in the media and politics fell (or worse, jumped knowingly) into the trap of seeing events in Syria as part of a ‘great game’, rather than seeing Syrians as a people with their own agency.

Over the years I’ve written a number of articles for Lib Dem Voice on Syria, in which I tried to do my part, to explain to party members what was happening, what our choices were as a country as to how we should respond. The Lib Dems for Free Syria organised briefings for parliamentarians and tried to feed into our party’s policy-making process. The most important thing we tried to do was to platform Syrians.

It’s with that in mind that I’m writing this today. Firstly, infinite congratulations to Syrians for overthrowing one of the worst monsters the world has seen. Secondly, to ask Liberal Democrats, whatever their concerns about what might come next for Syria, to please use this time to be happy for Syrians. The future is uncertain, but it is now for Syrians to determine.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged | 19 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

France and Germany

Europe is in political turmoil. The governments of the EU’s ideological and economic engines – France and Germany respectively – have collapsed.

Meanwhile Russia is advancing in the East and in the West Trump is retreating with a tariff-infested isolationist America First policy. To complicate matters further, Trump himself is unlikely to keep quiet when he visits France this weekend for the all-star reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.

At the heart of France’s problem is a three-way polarisation of French politics and a long-standing government tendency to pay more than it has. The centre-right guru of compromise, Michel Barnier was appointed Prime Minister, after parliamentary elections in the summer.

He failed to resolve either problem and a vote of no confidence brought about the collapse of his government on Wednesday. New parliamentary elections are the obvious answer. The problem is that under the constitution of the Fifth Republic there must be a gap of 12 months between National Assembly elections.

Which opens the question of whether President Emmanuel Macron himself should resign. So far, he has refused to consider it.

In the background is the fate of far-right National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen who is facing a five-year ban from politics for mis-use of EU funds. This would bar her from running for the presidency unless … Macron resigns. If he does presidential elections must be held within 30 days and Le Pen is rescued from the political wilderness.

Meanwhile, in Germany, Olof Scholz has failed to hold together his traffic-light coalition and called elections for February next year. The projected winners are this stage are the CDU/CSU coalition led by 69-year-old Friedrich Merz. Merz is pretty standard far-right. He is pro-EU, anti-Russian and pro-Ukraine.

The fly in the German electoral ointment is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) which is pro-Russian, anti-EU anti-Ukraine and vehemently anti-immigration. The AfD has been rising rapidly in the political stakes. It is based mainly in the former German Democratic Republic and is unlikely to win a majority, but it could end up the second biggest party in the Bundestag.

The problem is that the AfD is toxic. None of the established parties will form a coalition with it. Which means that the outcome is likely to be another shaky coalition just when Germany needs strong government. Not only is their threat of Russia, but the economy is in the doldrums as a result of its inability to compete with Chinese and American electric vehicles.

Its export problems are soon to be worsened by Trump’s tariffs. This in turn could drag East European economies from relative growth into recession. This in turn could increase its Euro-sceptic, pro-Russian leaders to turn away from the democratic institutions of the EU towards the more autocratic Russians and Chinese.

United States

It’s official – American’s legal system has been politicised and weaponised. Joe Biden’s decision to pardon his son Hunter was the final piece in this unfortunate jigsaw puzzle.

Some claim that America’s rule of law has already been hopelessly compromised. Either by years of corruption, questionable litiginous claims, a bloated legal profession, Donald Trump’s contempt for the law and Democrats’ use of the law to attack Trump.

It is true that New York’s conviction of Trump on business-related felony charges was questionable. Yes, he was guilty. But would he have been charged if he had not been Trump?

The Georgia state prosecution, and the two federal prosecutions – one of disappearing documents and the other for alleged insurrection – are of a much more serious nature. They involve nothing less than treason. With Trump’s election they will simply… disappear.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , , and | 8 Comments

Deep fried oreos and hummus – and MPs do karaoke

We have it on very good authority that there were some exceptionally sore heads in Lib Dem offices at Westminster and in constituency offices on Friday morning.

Thursday night saw the biggest Lib Dem staff Christmas party in a decade as Party HQ and staff from many of the 72 parliamentary offices gathered in a nightclub called “The Big Chill” in Kings Cross.

Politico has some more details:

Also spotted … eating humus and deep-fried Oreos at the Lib Dems’ Christmas party at Big Chill bar in Kings Cross: Equalities spokesperson Christine Jardine doing Cher’s “Believe” in the karaoke, and dueting on “Don’t You Want Me” with MP Munira Wilson … MPs Sarah Olney and Cameron Thomas doing triple karaoke with head policy adviser Will Cowie … party CEO Mike Dixon … campaigns director Dave McCobb, who was the architect of the Blue Wall wipeout … Chief Whip Wendy Chamberlain … frontbenchers Josh BabarindeAlison Bennett and Danny Chambers … MPs Calum MillerZoe FranklinPaul KohlerCameron Thomas, Anna Sabine and Olly Glover … Director of Communications Paul Haydon … Ed Davey’s press secretary Tim Wild … spinners Gareth LewisWill TerrasAmi WylieRob MacDonaldLily Carlse and Liv Ransome … and long-time former press chief and peer Olly Grender.

Hummus and deep fried oreos? We just hope not together. Our liberal tolerance stretches a long way but this is an odd combination.

Posted in News | Tagged and | 1 Comment
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