Trump is bad news for NATO. 

He damaged it in his first term and again during his campaign when he repeatedly threatened to either withdraw from the alliance or refuse to defend members that failed to meet the target of defence spending of at least two percent of GDP.

“We have been treated badly,” he told a Wisconsin election rally in September, “so badly, mostly by our allies. Our allies treat us actually worse than our so-called enemies. In the military, we protect them, and then they screw us on trade. We’re not going to let it happen anymore.”

Trump has threatened tariffs of up to 20 percent on EU and British goods. The clear implication is that if they want those tariffs reduced or eliminated then Europe’s NATO members will have to accept to spend more on defence which will allow the US to reduce its commitment. It is called transactional diplomacy.

Of course, Trump’s policy does not take into account that by beggaring his allies he also reduces their ability to spend more on defence.

Trump’s policy towards NATO is unpopular with the wider American public. More than 70 percent say they are enthusiastic supporters of the Alliance. This position was mirrored in July 2023 when—in a rare moment bipartisanship—Congress passed legislation which required US withdrawal from NATO to be approved by a two-thirds majority of the Senate, or through legislation which gives Congress a bigger say in overseeing alliances. The legislation was co-sponsored by Marco Rubio who has been tipped for the job of Trump’s Secretary of State.

The legislation, however, does not prevent Trump from closing bases, withdrawing troops or stopping investment or expenditure. Under the constitution, the president has wide powers to make and break treaties and order troops to occupy or withdraw from every part of the world. Trump, if he wanted, could hollow-out America’s commitment to defend Europe and leave America a semi-detached member of the alliance.

So European members of NATO remain NATO. But they sit easy compared to Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky is terrified

The election of Donald Trump raises the real possibility that his country’s lifeline of American military aid will come to a shuddering halt and push Ukraine under the heel of the Russian boot.

Trump has repeatedly opposed the economic drain of aid to Ukraine. He has added that if elected he would end the Ukraine war “in a day.”

The president-elect refuses to go into specifics, but there was a possible hint in a paper written in May by two of Trump’s former security advisers, General Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz.

They suggested that a Trump administration could propose immediate peace talks and a ceasefire based on current military positions. Ukraine would maintain its claim to territories currently occupied by Russia, leaving open the possibility of reunification at a later date. NATO membership—and possibly EU membership as well—would be taken off the table and pushed into an unknown future.

If Ukraine refused the American proposal then the Trump Administration would decrease American military aid. If Russia refused then the US would increase military aid to Ukraine.

Trump’s election could not have come at a worse time for Zelensky. The German government of Olof Scholz is on the verge of collapse. Europeans cannot continue the necessary support on their own and everyone is worried about the new international dimension created by the insertion of 10,000 North Korean troops.

At the same time the war on the ground is not going well. The Russians advance slowly but surely. They recently took the mining town of Selydove.

President Zelensky has ordered the call-up of 160,000 young men over the next three months, which has sent thousands into hiding. Without American support, Ukraine cannot withstand the Russian military steamroller.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is cock-a-hoop