Category Archives: Op-eds

Today marks the beginning of a new chapter for Wales

With the establishment of the Welsh Parliament, we are sending a clear message to people across our nation that our politics is changing. Now is the time for us to learn the lessons of the past and changing the way we do things.

For too long we failed to convey a clear message of what the purpose of the Assembly was and what it had the power to do. Instead, we let it be portrayed as ineffective, a barrier to change that was little more than a glorified talking shop.

We need to cut …

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Isolation diary: Drowning in plastic

Like many of you I had banned single use plastic from my kitchen.

The public campaign to reduce plastic shopping bags had been highly successful. We had all got into the habit of taking our own fabric, jute or reusable bags with us when we went shopping – although I tried not to acquire long life plastic bags, because they do fall apart eventually. But I wanted to take it further.

Clingfilm was the first to go. I tried bees wax wraps, which can be used to cover anything kept in the fridge in a bowl or cup. They are also a useful way of wrapping leftovers, although they do need to be lined with greaseproof paper.

I had gradually acquired a pile of stackable boxes in two sizes and I used those to store leftovers in the fridge. I often cook enough for 4 or 6 servings and freeze the remainder in two portion sizes in the boxes.

Next to go were the tear-off bags provided in the supermarket for loose fruit and vegetables.  Instead I sourced some washable drawstring mesh bags which I took with me when I went shopping.

I then turned my attention to packaging, which can be more of a challenge. Much of it ensures that food reaches the home in a healthy state, and these days a good proportion is recyclable. I do wash and save any plastic that can’t be put in the household recycling and store it. Some of the supermarkets encourage us to return anything like that, so I dutifully take it along with me, hoping that they have found some way of recycling it all. At the moment I am storing packaging in my spare room (along with the shredded paper and other items destined for the charity shop or tip when all this is over).

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Tackling the PPE problem

It became apparent very early in the COVID-19 pandemic that there was going to be a problem with the supply of PPE. All eyes at that point were understandably on the NHS and our hospitals in particular and available supplies of PPE were directed their way.

But, as City of York’s Executive Member for Health and Adult Social Care, I was very aware that there were other front line workers who also needed PPE, although of a different specification from that used in hospitals. Regular reports came to me about supplies in care homes and home care organisations and I knew …

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Sticking down the Overton window

Government and public opinion have for most of the last few decades described deep societal injustices as a matter of inevitability and described government action – or inaction – as the morally right thing for government do to.

We’ve been told, and most largely believed as a general public, that it’s inevitable that the economic cycle will see huge numbers of people out of work, huge numbers of people experiencing the worst forms of homelessness as inevitable, inevitable that some of the most deprived and marginalised will live with in poorer health, with less housing and income security and less opportunity.

We’ve …

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The journal of a new councillor (part 1)

Helen Burton was elected as a new councillor in Eastbourne last year. In this moni-series, she explains what led her to run in the first place…

I can’t believe it was a year ago I was elected as an Eastbourne Borough Councillor, the time has absolutely flown by. Who could have imagined a year ago that I would be writing this during lockdown in the middle of a pandemic, a crisis affecting local councils across the country?

My path to becoming a councillor in Eastbourne started with my volunteer role in the local community. I had already been a Parish councillor in …

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After the virus: an economic future for Wales

Our economy in Wales was already facing difficulties. The Welsh economy’s long-term problems are well-documented; low productivity, a long-term lack of investment, a declining working-age population, significant public health issues. Add to that the likely effects of Brexit – especially a no-deal Brexit, which, on the basis of the OBR’s own figures, would be likely to deliver a severe productivity shock to the UK economy – and the effects of February’s floods, and even before the effects of lockdown are considered, it is clear that Wales was facing serious economic challenges. A recent report by the Centre for Towns and …

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Isolation diary: Exiting lockdown?

The Government is exploring the options for easing lockdown and will be announcing their plans next Sunday. The lifting of some restrictions will no doubt be welcomed by most people and we can expect some slightly late, but exuberant,  VE Day celebrations.

However, no-one should forget that, whatever the new normal is, it will make no difference to a large number of people.

Everyone over the age of 70 was told to self-isolate for 12 weeks from 21st March, which takes us up to 13th June.

In addition 1.5 million people have been ask to take the more stringent shielding precautions for 12 weeks. The first wave of those letters were issued during the week when lock down began, and a second wave was sent out around 2 weeks later. So those people can expect to be shielded in self-isolation until the end of June, at the earliest.

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Stop the carbon offsetting Greenwash

The current virus has temporarily reduced carbon emissions, but climate change is still important.

Carbon offsetting is used to enable an organisation or person engaged in an activity that emits CO2 (or other Greenhouse Gas (GHG)), such as flying, to pay to support project(s) that reduce emissions so they can claim a neutral net effect on climate change. There is a wide range of such projects on offer commercially, an example being planting trees. The cost in £/ton of CO2 varies very widely, and the control and auditing of the validity of their claims is weak. Naturally, both organisations and …

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What’s happening in Israel and Palestine?

While international focus has been on Covid-19, one could be excused for thinking all was quiet in Israel and Palestine. Benny Gantz, who got one more seat for his coalition than Netanyahu in the January elections, tried to form a government initially which included Arab and Centre Left support. He failed, as did Netanyahu with the far right. The two of them have now agreed terms for a centre-right coalition, in which Netanyahu becomes PM for the first 18 months and then Gantz follows.
The Netanyahu/Gantz agreement specifies a timetable formally to annex East Jerusalem and the West …

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Ode to something less than Joy

There was a time, not so long ago, that any news interview conducted outside the Westminster Parliament would be punctuated by a loud and long cry, “Stoooopppp Breeeexiiiit”.

Brexit was not stopped. December 2019 saw a Tory government returned to power, transformed from a handcuffed minority to a stomping majority. The Liberal Democrats did not benefit in any huge way from the Stop Brexit stance, lost one seat overall, and a certain person did not stand before us as the next Prime Minister.

We could focus on a post-mortem – all the events that led to that outcome – refining …

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Over-centralisation and the response to Covid-19

England would have managed its response to the Covid-19 epidemic better if our local government had been stronger, and encouraged to play a larger role. Liberal Democrats should now be arguing, even more vigorously than usual, that over-centralization leads to failure on the ground.

The first wave of testing centres was outsourced by the government, through a non-competitive contracting process, to one of our largest consultancy firms. The consultants’ understanding of regional and local geography was evidently limited, and their assumption that all health workers would have their own cars and would be willing to drive long distances for several …

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Isolation diary: Redefining time

Before lockdown Stephen Fry gave some advice on managing anxiety during self-isolation.

Anxiety and stress are almost as virulent as this awful coronavirus.

Take a deep breath and allow time to take on a different dimension, taking more time to do everything.

He says that we would be wise to redefine our sense of time. To do that he suggests drawing up a timetable for each day and allow plenty of time for all the tasks.

We should also turn off notifications so we are no longer constantly being bombarded by headlines, and then decide on a time during the day when we will look in on the news. Some weeks ago a friend advised me not to watch any news reports in the evenings – and I have found that really has helped my sleep patterns.

To reduce anxiety Stephen Fry says that we need to cut out the noise. He makes one very salient point: the real experts, such as scientific advisors, tend to qualify their statements with phrases like “We think” or “It’s possible”. Anybody who claims to know what is going on, with great certainty, probably doesn’t, and we should blank them out.

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Liberal Democrats for the heart of England

Many of us living in the Midlands often feel we’re a part of the country forgotten by Government.

Liberal Democrats in the Midlands, having had some tough general election results, may sometimes feel we’re a forgotten part of the party.

To try and address these issues a group of Midlands Lib Dem activists have come together to found Liberal Democrats for the Heart of England. With twin aims of raising issues for the Midlands that need championing within the party and to get more Lib Dems elected at local and Parliamentary level to champion the Midlands’ cause.

As a Leicestershire County Councillor I see first hand how we’re often a part of Britain forgotten by the Tory Government. Despite having all Tory MPs, Leicestershire is about the worst funded county in Britain. Residents see Council Tax regularly soar but services, such as Sure Start Children’s Centres, support for rural bus services, cut right back. Similarly a number of other Counties across the Midlands are among the worst funded in Britain.

Leicestershire also has among the worst funded schools in Britain. This has an effect in limiting opportunities. With social mobility in places like my area of Hinckley and Bosworth being among the lowest in Britain. If a young person grows up here in poverty sadly they’re very likely to stay there. Championing fairly funded education services to give everyone a fair start in life is a key cause for the group.

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Isolation diary: Getting some exercise

I have mentioned before that I have been starting most mornings with Joe Wicks. Given my age and general state of fitness, I haven’t been following the daily PE with Joe sessions, although a million other people have.

Instead I have been following his videos for seniors. Each of the five different workouts takes you through a 10 minute set of exercises, which can be varied to suit your capabilities.

I bought a Fitbit a couple of years ago to encourage me to get out for a walk each day. My daily step rate was never very high, reaching 8k or more on a good day. I achieved my highest rate ever of 23k  when I took the grandsons to Disneyland Paris last year. I have been alarmed to see that whilst in self-isolation I have rarely got above 4k.

Apart from a dance class I once attended at a health centre (and a long since abandoned involvement in fencing when I was at University), I have never really taken to exercise or sport, so following fitness videos is new for me. In fact, I am very surprised to find I actually look forward to them each morning.

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A longer read for the weekend: The case for an extension to the Brexit transition period

It’s hard to believe that something which had dominated our lives for so long – Brexit – has almost completely fallen off the radar.

After the shock of the December General Election, and the brutality of losing our jobs and heading home from Brussels in January, we former MEPs were geared up for the long haul of holding the government to account as it ground its way through tortuous post Brexit trade negotiations with the EU.

And when Boris Johnson spoke of ‘healing the rift’ between leavers and remainers, it seemed an impossible idea. 

Little did any of us think a global pandemic would sweep across the globe and make those two words almost redundant within weeks. We are now a people divided between frontline workers and those who stay at home, the vulnerable and those less at risk, the sick and the well.

But while many people have far more urgent things to concentrate on, it is vital that some of us don’t take our eyes off what’s happening with Brexit. The transition clock is ticking loudly and it’s only a few weeks until the UK has to decide whether it will ask for an extension to the transition period that is due to end on December 31. 

Senior Europeans say that while the case for an extension is overwhelming, there is little appetite for it on the UK side. And while the Government might be tempted to use COVID-19 to camouflage the disaster of a crash out from the single market and customs union at the end of the year, the costs will be high – and less affordable than ever. 

This government, picked for its adherence to the Brexit mantra rather than its ability to steer us out of the COVID-19 crisis, still seems hell bent on crashing out, rather than looking at the changed landscape we now find ourselves in and accepting that not only we, but other governments too, have other things to think about.

We are so far away from reaching an agreement with the EU that it is fantasy to assume it is now possible. The timeline was extremely tight to begin with, but after talks stalled due to illness and isolation, the prospect of a deal has become even less likely.

And the UK’s refusal to make their negotiating mandate public is infuriating EU capitals. They don’t even know what the UK side is aiming for.

“The problems are immense: the British texts, which are not made public, don’t cover a number of key priorities. Nothing substantial on a level playing field, no text whatsoever on fisheries so far, no recognition of the role of ECJ or ECHR, no commitments regarding climate change, no certainty in the protection of data… The Political declaration is forgotten,” said one senior European who is well aware of what’s happening in the negotiations. 

The source said there was nothing concrete so far on how the UK sees its relationship with EU security or defence policies but by contrast they are making huge demands about access to European data, with no strings attached. 

“More generally, there is an aggressive tone which hurts and doesn’t help. There are many reasons why the talks are only talks, and not proper negotiations. The risk of a no deal is serious and obviously a scenario which has some traction in London.” 

During a remote meeting of the UK-EU Friendship Group set up by MEPs before the UK contingent headed home, Polish MEP Radek Sikorski (EPP) said: “We should all prepare ourselves for a super hard Brexit at the end of this year.”

And French MEP Nathalie Loiseau (Renew Europe), said: “The pace of negotiations is pretty slow. There’s very little progress. We ask for no posturing ideology, but for care for individuals and businesses who will be affected by this.”

The feeling in Brussels is that the UK still wants an agreement with all the benefits, but with minimal obligations. Their language is couched in ideology and hubris. Never mind the details of what being a ‘third country’ means in reality, fulfilling an election promise still seems far more important – regardless of the fact that whole world order has fundamentally changed. 

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Opposition councillors can achieve real change in our community

In Ealing I lead a small but proactive team of four Lib Dem councillors who provide real opposition to the Labour-run council.

In these times where we are all trying to deal with Coronavirus, there are many ways we can help the community by promoting advice to our constituents, holding virtual meetings in our wards to answers residents’ concerns and scrutinising what the Council can do differently or better to help residents and users of Council services.

By campaigning in an active and smart way consistently, you can be an effective opposition party by getting the Council to listen to you and to introduce policies that will help people in your local area. Some of these include:

  • Reversing changes to Council Tax Support scheme that were causing harm and greater levels of Now more vulnerable residents are exempt.
  • Leading the campaign to stop Charing Cross Hospital’s Accident & Emergency ward from closing.
  • Highlighting a £1.1 million IT blunder causing the telephone system to stop working for a week and then leading the charge to enable changes to stop this reoccurring.
  • Extending the use of powers of local Ward Forum meetings which have a budget to spend on local matters including play facilities for teenagers, care facilities for the elderly and providing cycle training.
  • The introduction of one of London’s first ward wide 20 mph zones and other road safety initiatives.
  • Persuading the Council to be opposed to an expansion of Heathrow airport.
  • Forcing the Council to introduce a large number of policies which will help reduce the negative impact on our environmental from the Council and its contractors.
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Isolation diary: Smelling the Roses

Last week I wished Shakespeare a Happy Birthday with a photo of the pop-up Shakespeare’s Rose theatre in York in 2018. Friends in Kingston will know the significance of that picture, and it is not simply because York is my favourite city in the UK (and I went to University there).

Soon after I was elected to Kingston Council in 1997 I was asked to represent the Council on Kingston Theatre Trust. Our chair was the broadcaster David Jacobs, who was the Representative Deputy Lieutenant for the Borough and who took a keen interest in the cultural life of the area.

Our mission was to build a theatre in Kingston, and at that stage we were planning a traditional proscenium stage with a fly tower. St George’s plc was being encouraged to bring new life to the river front by building luxury flats and improving the access. The Council owned some of the land in the development parcel, which became a useful bargaining ploy. As part of the planning agreement St George’s was to construct the shell of a theatre, and we eventually got outline planning permission for it.

The Theatre Trust had applied to the Arts Council for capital funding and it was a huge blow when the application was refused. At one stage it looked as though the project would have to be shelved, but, in 1997, with Lib Dems in control, Council decided to go ahead with a feasibility study. The challenge was to see whether we could create a low budget “warehouse-style” theatre.

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Pubs need support now and inclusion for their future

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Having relaunched a pub in Brighton during the election, watching it grow into a successful community pub then suddenly falling complete silent has been an absolute roller-coaster of emotions. Not seeing your regulars every day is a weird feeling and not knowing when those doors will open again leaves me anxious for the future of the industry.

I’m a lucky one though, my parent pub company have been incredibly supportive and with their help and the coronavirus retention scheme, I’ve been able to continue paying 100% of my staffs’ wages. But for lots of publicans this is not the case.

Some of the big Pub Co’s are still collecting extortionate rents from their tenants, even though there has been zero footfall through the doors. Pubs with higher rateable values are exempt from grants. Bank loans are little to none in the hospitality sector and seasonal staff will be significantly worse off with the summer season limited. All these issues need addressing urgently, if we want pubs to be there able and ready for when we can enjoy that much anticipated pint with our friends again.

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Covid-19 … The new Liberal reality

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While we may disagree on the timing of the UK government introducing the Covid-19 lockdown, I hope we can all agree that doing so was a necessary measure.

However, it’s a holding measure, not a solution in itself. It is becoming apparent that the scenario of staying in lockdown till Covid-19 is eradicated, or at least until it’s constrained in known isolated pockets in hospital ITUs, is highly unlikely. With no coordinated international response, even if we were to achieve this in the UK, there would be high probability of infection being reintroduced. If we have similar (or higher) infection rates than other countries, it’s even arguable whether closing the borders would make any significant difference to the situation in the UK.

The lockdown is a rather blunt tool. It’s a list of permissible activities – a straightforward public health message that can be quickly conveyed. It’s not perfect – jogging or cycling can still result in injury, placing additional pressure on A&E. Perspiring and breathing heavily in public parks bring their own risks of transmission. You can still go to the supermarket as often as you like, for as long as you like, wearing no protection, even if you’re in a vulnerable group. So let’s not kid ourselves that this lockdown is perfect. And while we’re at it, let’s not kid ourselves that this lockdown is sustainable indefinitely.

Ideally, all activity would be assessed for its statistical probability of virus transmission, and a highly refined lockdown could then be issued. Unfortunately, this would be an impossibly complex public health message to convey. So what’s the way out of this?

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Observations of an expat: Where is Kim? 

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Where is Kim Jong-un? Is he alive? Is he dead? Has the obese 36-year-old with a weird haircut had a stroke or heart attack? Has the coronavirus pandemic forced him into a secret lockdown? Does he have coronavirus? Has he been the victim of a palace coup?

The questions are being asked because the North Korean leader failed to make an appearance on 13 April at one of the most important annual celebrations in the country’s political calendar – the birthday anniversary celebrations for his grandfather, Kim il-Sung.

All the above questions are important. But even more important is who is likely to succeed him and what would a post-Kim world look like?

The current front-runner to succeed as leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is “Dear Leader’s” little sister, 32-year-old Kim Yo-jong.  The main reason is that the running of the highly secretive and oppressive communist regime is a family affair and the little sister is Km Jong-un’s closest family. However, there are some issues with the sibling. First of all, Kim Yo-jong, is a woman in a highly patriarchal society.

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Local leadership in Watford

When I was standing to be the Elected Mayor of Watford in 2018, Sir Vince Cable kindly came to help the campaign several times. When asked by local journalists why electing Lib Dems in local government mattered, his answer was always a straightforward one; because up and down the country we provide caring and competent local leadership. During the coronavirus pandemic I have seen Lib Dem-run councils doing just that.

As soon as the scale of this emergency became clear, Watford’s Liberal Democrat councillors and campaigners started to phone hundreds of older residents to ask them if they were alright and to find out what help they might need. This was extremely well received and meant that we were able to identify many people in particular need at a very early stage.

From the very outset it was clear that the whole way the council operated would have to change with many staff moved to new priority areas. Our approach has focused on making sure that our town is caring for all those in need, that key services are maintained, we engage with our residents and that Watford remains as connected and positive as possible.

Many people wanted to know what they could do to support those more vulnerable than themselves during the lockdown. To make sure that local volunteer effort was coordinated and effective we worked with local voluntary groups to set up ‘Watford Helps’. Over 1,000 people have signed up and are helping people to get the food and medicines that they need and making friendly phone calls to those who are lonely or isolated.

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Isolation diary: Correcting the headlines

“A third of Covid-19 hospital patients die“. That is the stark headline in the Guardian today, echoed in other media.

But shouldn’t it read “Two thirds of Covid-19 hospital patients survive”? We rightly applaud the NHS workers at every opportunity, and we do so because they are saving lives.

People are only being admitted to hospital with Covid-19 when their lives are at risk. This is a vicious new disease that no-one knew anything about just four months ago, and yet everyone in the NHS, from the whole range of health care professionals to administrators and ancillary workers, are together contributing to a remarkable success rate in treatment.

Coronavirus and its fallout totally dominate the news at the moment. But we desperately need some good news – what else could explain the phenomenon that is Capt Tom? (Happy Birthday!).

We all need to know that catching Covid-19 is not a death sentence for the vast majority of people. Even in the most serious cases, where intensive care interventions are needed, most people recover. So why are we not being told this directly?

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Things we hold dear

Like many the lockdown left me searching for things to do in this unique situation.

A search on the Film 4 website took me to the complete series of the hit US comedy Seinfeld so I decided to work my way through it knowing that it would make me laugh as it did 25 years ago. Throughout the series there are passing references to sport and politics which got me thinking about both in a somewhat unusual way.

Seinfeld is set in New York, a city that lost its iconic baseball team the Brooklyn Dodgers back in the late 1950s when the owner moved them to Los Angeles. Thousands had packed into the Dodgers stadium for decades but that didn’t save it from the wrecking ball.

Here in the UK too stadiums and teams have also been consigned to history. In my home town of Reading the football team I have supported since childhood moved grounds in 1998 and, although it was within the same borough, I always missed the old place where I stood on the terraces engrossed in the action. Worse still, the town’s speedway club Reading Racers, twice British champions, saw their stadium close in 2008 with promises from the local council to find a new one coming to nothing. Racers fans are still waiting. Now the economic crisis brought about by Coronavirus threatens the existence of many more sports clubs.

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Should we be taking population density into account when comparing countries on Covid-19?

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May I first offer my sincere sympathy to all those who have been directly affected by Covid-19 through their own illness or through loss or illness of loved ones. This is a truly terrible illness and my heart goes out to all those who have suffered, as well as the many NHS, care and key workers who have put their life on the line to help others.

One of the horrible sides of the pandemic is that it is often reduced to slides of statistics. When reducing thousands of individual tragedies of people’s lives cut cruelly short to graphs, it is terribly superficial. So I apologise for writing a post about the numbers. Behind every fatality there is the story of a beloved human being leaving behind grieving loved ones.

I suspect it will be many years before the full picture of this pandemic and our (human beings’) handling of it becomes clear.

When comparing countries, it seems now that poor old Belgium is top of the list of Covid-19 death rates. (Originally it was the USA, based on sheer absolute figures, which was a bit bonkers given the size of the country).

However, even though it is many moons ago, I remember the odd school geography lesson telling us that the Low Countries have a very high population density. So, surely the disease is bound to spread more quickly when the population is much closer to each other.

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Reforming capitalism: The need for popular ownership

In the wake of coronavirus, how should Liberal Democrats think about and approach capitalism?

For those on the left this pandemic is confirmation that capitalism has failed; without significant state assistance it lacks, we are told, the resilience to manage in times of crisis. As a result, socialists declare that the market must be restrained, tempered, and tamed. Crucially, however, it is the state which is to be charged with achieving this. We must, we are told, have more taxation and greater regulation as well as greater state spending.

In contrast, for those on the right this episode has confirmed that we need more, not less, of the Chicago school thinking that has dominated so much economic thought since the days of Thatcher and Reagan: we require, we are told, less taxation and fewer regulations.

Contrary to the above, Liberal Democrats should draw on our rich intellectual heritage and demand a new, reformed, and radical form of capitalism. The hallmark of such a vision should be one in which capital is much more widely owned than is currently the case and in which as many people as possible own capital.

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How the health crisis could help advance our society’s wellbeing

Everyone can recall the bitter divisions in our society last year. Families were split about Brexit; friends chose which friends to talk to, there was rage and blame ringing across the airwaves and on social media, while In the House of Commons, the MPs tried and tried again without success to reach agreement on whether, when or how to leave the EU.

But this spring the bitterness is gone. That isn’t because of general weary resignation that Brexit is settled. It’s because in facing the pandemic disease to which we are all susceptible millions of us are pulling together in facing up to it. We have surrendered civil liberties, altered our lifestyles, closed businesses, foregone sociable pleasures and knuckled down to hard work or to the new challenge of staying mostly at home. Nobody is pleased about it, but we are generally united in our feelings about its inevitability. Where will this newfound unity, which is so reminiscent of what we understand happened in the two World Wars, take us next?

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Isolation diary: Losing my marbles

The cupboards that I have been clearing out have been a rich source of memories. I found a large biscuit tin full of marbles.  Some of the contents go back to my childhood and my sons added to them when they were small.

Children don’t play with marbles these days. However, I don’t do “Things were better in my days”.

Things were different, but largely worse for children when I grew up. Children were abused, legally, by the very people who should have been protecting them.

School was horrible. From the age of six we sat all day at our desks in silence. The first school I attended was in a Victorian red brick building. I just remember the Infants section as dark. Outside was a tiny playground, which was an uneven stretch of tarmac devoid of any play apparatus. The toilets were across the yard, and we called one of the cubicles the ‘fever toilet’ because it was filthy with broken pipes.

The building was completely inadequate. One day we arrived at school to be told we were moving to a new Infants school. We walked in a crocodile to the new site. Unfortunately our parents (schools didn’t work with parents at all in those days) had not been informed so apparently turned up at the old school to pick us up at the end of the day.

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Forecasts for the end of the COVID-19 epidemics similar to Singapore lab’s

Between March 17th and 20th, using my former scientist’s PhD knowledge, I started making forecasts, with graphs, of when the COVID-19 would end for the main European countries and the UK. The shot was a long one, and the forecasts sent in a private email to colleagues. At the time the government announced a minimum ’12 weeks’ epidemic. Hence until at least June 17, with statements that it may last over six months to 2021.

With data consolidating from March 30, I took the risk to make my previsions public on LINKEDIN (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/update-previous-coronavirus-covid19-reports-analysis-de-vartavan/) forecasting the end of the UK epidemic between April 30 and May 6 +/-. In another April 21 report, I also calculated, among others, the end of the Italian epidemic around May 6 +/-.: (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/now-witnessing-end-coronavirus-epidemic-central-christian-de-vartavan/). The aim is to provide intelligence to UK companies of when to prepare to exit the costly lockdown and hence reduce at soon as possible its economic damages. I suggested May 1 to start preparing and still do. 

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New leader should be banging on Starmer’s door on day one

The election of Kier Starmer as leader of the Labour Party, and therefore the leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition, presents a challenge for us as Liberal Democrats. On the one hand, it’s good news for our democracy that there’s now a serious Leader of the opposition who will be asking probing questions of this terrible Conservative government.

On the other hand, it presents a threat to us. A Starmer-led Labour Party will be fishing in the same pond of voters that we hope to seek support from. Some who had fled Corbyn’s Labour may now return to them. Our chances of making inroads into Labour-held seats that voted Remain in 2016 will have significantly diminished.

We are probably never going to see an overall Labour majority in this country again. They’ve lost Scotland to the SNP, and the Tories have breached the so-called ‘red wall’ in the north of England. It seems unlikely that many of those seats are coming back to them any time soon.

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Are we being led by the science?

Well, that’s what we are told at the daily press conference, but is it true?

It’s becoming evident that the 2-metre social distancing rule is exceedingly problematic if it’s to be continued once businesses re-open, particularly for small cafes, restaurants and shops which are too small to implement it and will cease to be viable. So, the evidence to support it must be very strong, mustn’t it?

I have not been able to find that evidence anywhere, and significantly the WHO has settled on a much more pragmatic, achievable and sustainable one-metre distance. I made a few more discreet enquiries yesterday, and the answer came back that ‘there is no evidence’.

Does Chris Whitty, Patrick Vallance and SAGE know something we don’t?  – we certainly hope so, but if this secret society does not publish its membership and meeting minutes how can we trust the government to have taken their advice seriously, rather than manipulated it, particularly now we know who else attends these meetings.

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    Whatever the message, we need a leader who can clearly enunciate it, and not simply make party policy on the hoof. Ed Davey's intervention on the issue of local...
  • Peter Davies
    "Wanting to tear down historical statues , monuments , portraits, sanatise books etc ….It’s what the Taliban did in Afghanistan." It's also something Cromwe...
  • PM
    If Brexit is the cause of all our problems in the UK, what is the cause of the similar, or even worse, problems in France, Germany, Belgium, Italy etc? The ...