Category Archives: Op-eds

Mad about the menopause

I am far from the first to notice that menopause is having its moment.

The tragic death of Nicola Bulley recently brought out the cultural taboos in this area. Was it, for example, misogynistic or open and empathetic for the police to mention her struggle with the menopause?

The Labour Party launched a menopause action plan yesterday, particularly aimed at businesses with over 250 employees. The Local Government Association has an excellent menopause policy. Even the hapless Tory government had an HRT taskforce; though it disbanded it after a mere four months! Businesses are catching up with the menopausal pound: ranging from Boots selling natural alternatives to HRT and “menopause face creams” to, more comically, Primark selling a menopause (anti hot flush) nightdress.

We are told that 30% of women aged 50-64 are economically inactive and one in ten of women aged 45-55 leave a job because of menopausal symptoms. There is certainly a problem.

One very odd thing about mainstream media discussions on this subject is the level of squeamishness. Vague comments are made about women being a bit cross and a bit sweaty! I am going to be a little more frank.  Liberals are not known for their prudishness but please stop reading now gentle LDV reader if you are one of the exceptions with a nervous disposition.

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Has Sunak killed the United Kingdom?

On 27th February 2023 Rishi Sunak announced a decisive breakthrough in negotiations with the EU on trade with Northern Ireland, but is this a successful deal for NI, or does this deal signal the final knife through the heart of the United Kingdom?

Thanks to Sunak’s deal we now have a United Kingdom of two halves. In Great Britain our businesses continue to suffer the indignities of Brexit, with their access to the European markets at best restricted and at worse blocked, whilst in Northern Ireland businesses now have far fewer restrictions on their access to that market.

Sunak, in his own words, made clear that “If we get this right, if we get this framework implemented, if we get the executive back up and running here, Northern Ireland is in the unbelievably special position – unique position in the entire world, European continent – in having privileged access, not just to the UK home market, which is enormous, the fifth biggest in the world, but also the European Union single market. Nobody else has that. No one. Only you guys. Only here. And that is the prize.”

What Sunak has done is created a clear and irrevocable split between Great Britain and Northern Ireland which, whilst initially will be lauded, will rapidly turn to discontent in Great Britain, starting in Scotland and Wales, but in the longer term also in the Regions of England.

Sunak even acknowledged the divide when he stated that “I can tell you, when I go around the world and talk to businesses, they know. They’re like, ‘That’s interesting, if you guys get this sorted, then we want to invest in Northern Ireland.’”

“Because nowhere else does that exist. That’s like the world’s most exciting economic zone.”

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Dydd Gŵyl Dewi Hapus

Happy St David’s Day!

When I was in school in Cardiff we used to hold an eisteddfod on the morning of March 1st (if it fell during the week) which would involve a lot of singing. Then the Governors would graciously grant us an afternoon off.

St David was born and spent his whole life in Wales, unlike the non-native saints of England and Scotland. There is plenty of historical evidence for his existence and his service as archbishop in the sixth century. He appears to have been a modest man living an ascetic life, but a charismatic speaker. His symbol is a white dove and he is known for the advice “Do ye the little things in life”, a good motto for community politics.

The Welsh Liberal Democrats are calling for St David’s Day to be a public holiday in Wales. They have tabled a Bill to Parliament which would give the Senedd powers to designate a day as such. St Andrew’s Day and St Patrick’s Day are already public holidays in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Welsh Labour, the Welsh Conservatives and Plaid Cymru all support St David’s Day becoming a public holiday, but it has been continuously blocked by the Westminster Conservative Government.

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What support do Hong Kong people need in the UK?

A few weeks ago, there were some social media feeds celebrating the 2nd anniversary of the opening of the Hong Kong British Nationality Overseas (BN(O)) scheme on the Home Office’s Twitter, such as “the UK is proud to have welcomed 144,500 people from Hong Kong”, “many Hong Kongers have said living in Britain is like coming home”.

Unfortunately not every Hong Konger in the UK feels at home.

A recent tragic story, that has been discussed a lot amongst the Hong Kong community, was that of a 27 year-old Hong Kong migrant who took her life after seven months in the UK. This news even spread to mainland China, but unfortunately was even less known here in the UK, where this heartbreaking tragedy took place.

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Shocking crime news from Greater Manchester

To every Mancunian there is something special about this great city, this island of Greater Manchester.

Befittingly, Greater Manchester has a large Metropolitan Police Force GMP covering Manchester and its satellite cities of Salford, Wigan, Bolton, Bury, Rochdale, Oldham, Tameside, Stockport and Trafford, all under the vigilant eyes of Labour’s Andy Burnham as the elected GM Mayor in his crucial role as the Greater Manchester Police and Fire Commissioner.

As clockwork, GMP compiles detailed monthly crime records anonymised street-by-street into 14 ‘Categories’ in all >250 GM ‘Police Neighbourhoods’ and duly submitted them to the Home Office in London, the brain and nervous system of the police under the Conservative government. Likewise, the Home Office released the monthly crime records of each and every police force in England and Wales.

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Willie Rennie calls for action to end violence in schools

Willie Rennie has called on the Scottish Government and Scotland’s education leaders to do more to tackle the increasing problem of violence in schools.

He wrote in the Daily Record that images shown to him by a constituent of a young girl being kicked in the face by another will stay with him forever.

He said that there was a “conspiracy of silence” as those responsible didn’t admit to the extent of the problem, which led to staff at sone school taking industrial action because they didn’t feel their pleas for intervention were being heard.

He wants action to tackle a problem which has become much more severe since the pandemic closed schools for extended periods. Not only that, but there are fewer experienced staff around to help:

There has been a fall in specialist teachers, long waits for mental health treatment, a reduction in classroom assistants, insufficient educational psychologists and not enough staffed spaces to provide appropriate support to pupils. The list goes on. That needs to change.

But, he says, intervention has to be inclusive:

I am a liberal and I believe in tackling the root causes of behaviour rather than simply punishing the symptoms, so I support inclusion and the restorative approach adopted in Scottish education.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

China

China has marked the first anniversary of the Ukraine War with a pair of unsurprising foreign policy papers. The first one concentrates on the Ukraine War and proposes a well-trod and contradictory solution: Russia respects Ukrainian national sovereignty. Everyone respects Russia’s security aspirations and nobody imposes sanctions against anyone.

The second paper is more about calls for a new world order. Again, no real surprises. China is trying to re-write the international rule book by playing to the interests of the developing world in Africa, Asia and South America.

The second paper is important but China’s position on Ukraine is of more immediate interests and whether Beijing likes it or not, the two issues are clearly linked. The outcome of the Ukraine War will influence which way the global South jumps: If Ukraine wins then American influence grows. If Russia stomps Ukraine then it is a victory for Beijing as well as Moscow.

But back to China’s Ukraine paper which was preceded by foreign minister Wang Yi’s tour of Europe and participation in the Munich Security Conference. The goal of the trip was to drive a wedge between the US and its NATO allies. He failed.

Hanging over Wang’s trip was the claim by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg that China is on the cusp of supplying weaponry to Vladimir Putin. Wang Yi denied this to EU foreign affairs commissioner Josep Borrell. But at the same time, Chinese diplomats, are letting it be known that the option is on the table. And if the US pushes them too far they will use it.

START

START has stopped. To be more precise it has been suspended by Vladimir Putin. This means that the last of the US-Russian strategic arms agreements has crumbled. These treaties were key building blocks in the diplomatic structure that ended the Cold War and continues to govern East-West relations.

So what is START? Well, for a start, it is an acronym for Strategic Arms Reduction Talks. Its full name is actually New START and it replaces START One which expired in 2009 as well as START Two and three which never got off the ground and the Treaty of Moscow (aka SORT).

What does (or did) START do? It cut by 10 percent the number of strategic missile launchers of Russia and the US and set up a system of on-site inspections to verify that both sides were sticking to the agreement. The total number of launch platforms, which includes submarines, missile siloes and heavy bombers is limited to 1,550 each. It does not reduce the number of nuclear warheads they can hold, just the delivery systems. But then warheads are pretty useless if a country does not have the means to deliver them.

The START talks are the successor negotiations to the SALT (Strategic Arms Limitation) talks which started with the 1972 ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) Treaty and limited the increase in the size of the super powers’ nuclear arsenals. At the height of the Cold War the Soviet Union had an estimated 40,000 nuclear warheads and the US 30,000.

President George W. Bush started unravelling the strategic arms structure in 2001 when he withdrew from the ABM Treaty over Russian objections. START was a major foreign policy victory for the Obama Administration but in 2019 Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump withdrew from the INF Treaty which limited the deployment of Intermediate-range nuclear weapons in Europe.

New START was last treaty standing. It was due to expire in 2021, but was extended for another five years. However, the Russians have been in breach of the agreement since March 2020. That is the last time Americans were allowed to inspect Russian facilities. The initial excuse for refusing access was the pandemic. That was superseded by the Ukraine War, which, of course, is the reason for the current suspension and, as most diplomats know, there are few things more permanent than the temporary.

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Why it’s time for the Liberal Democrats to take back the mantle of freedom

The topic of freedom in politics is highly contested. For the Conservatives, in recent years,  this has centred around economic freedom. Is this still really relevant today?

Back in the 1980s, Margaret Thatcher’s programme of economic liberalisation saw an explosion in economic freedom – more people were able to purchase their own council houses and stock market novices became rich overnight following the countless moves to privatise various public utilities.

Despite regular musings by Conservative MPs that they remain the party of low taxes, personal freedom and individual responsibility,  the facts tell a different story. A recent poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies found that only 14% of voters believed the Tories had a reputation for lowering taxes.

Personal freedom has also become a significant grey area for the Tories. The majority of the parliamentary party backed vaccine passports in 2021 – something that the Liberal Democrats firmly opposed, with Ed Davey labelling the scheme at the time ‘a grotesque misuse of government diktat’.

While the Covid-19 pandemic undoubtedly  required great vigilance and government intervention, any party that holds a belief in liberal values and is a carrier of the torch of freedom should understand the importance of not enforcing schemes on the populace that could be a precursor for revolt. Whilst vaccine passports were introduced, they remained deeply unpopular for their time in existence.

Any discussion about personal freedom would not be complete without the attack on the Human Rights Act by the government. Prior to its introduction in 1998, if an individual wanted to challenge a government act as unlawful, they would be required to invoke our ‘common law’ tradition of the rule of law. Essential rights were established on a case-by-case basis, regardless of the right being discussed.

With the passing of the HRA, the UK constitutionalised the common law – and gave more power to the individual to secure protections guaranteed by the state. No longer were people subject to the whims of the particular case. Human rights were now universal and guaranteed legal certainty.

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Observations of an expat: Happy Birthday

Fans of our foreign editor, Tom Arms, will be delighted to hear that he has started a weekly podcast, Transatlantic Riff.

Happy Birthday Ukraine, the Russian people, Europe, America and all the rest of the world.

The Ukraine War is one year old. An estimated 300,000 lives have been lost so far – and that is only the soldiers.

More than 5.2 million refugees have fled the fighting, mainly women and children who have left fathers, sons and husbands behind. Those who remain in Ukraine live in daily fear of Russian missile attacks. Many are without water, electricity or heating.

The ripple effects of the Ukraine War have encompassed the world. A trillion dollars’ worth of damage has been inflicted on Ukraine and the war has so far cost Europe and America an estimated $215 billion and this is only the beginning.

The Ukraine War has closed key gas and oil pipelines from Russia to Europe and forced Europeans to seek alternative supplies from America and Middle East. This in turn has pushed energy prices to crisis levels.

Inflation has been fuelled by energy problems and food shortages as Ukraine, Russia and Belarus are major suppliers of grain, sunflower oil and fertilisers.

The war has also produced tectonic diplomatic shifts. It has united Ukrainians and provided them with a clear national identity reinforced by a charismatic leader. Yes, Putin is right when he says Ukraine’s history is closely linked with that of Russia. But its future is not.

The war has also re-united Europe and NATO. For years America has complained about low levels of European defense spending, especially in Germany. Donald Trump even threatened to withdraw from the alliance. That has ended. Europeans are spending more and sending aid to Ukraine. The EU financial aid is actually $5 billion more than America’s $45 billion. But America’s total commitment of humanitarian, financial and military -dwarves the contributions of all the other countries combined.

Putin claims that his invasion is a reaction to NATO enlargement. If so, the war has become a self-fulfilling prophecy as Sweden and Finland have reversed their long-standing commitments to neutrality to apply for NATO membership and Ukraine is now a de facto member of the Western Alliance, but still outside the ultimate protection of Article Five.

Vladimir Putin’s repeated threats – veiled and unveiled – to use nuclear weapons has also revived the fear of a nuclear war. As has his announcement this week that he is suspending Russia’s in arms reduction talk, formally ending inspections of nuclear weapons sites and increasing Moscow’s nuclear arsenal.

On the ground, both sides are literally dug in with trenches crisscrossing in a general north-south gash across the Eastern part of Ukraine. Russia is believed to be on the verge of throwing another 200,000 conscripts against the Ukrainian frontline. The Ukrainian, for their part are hoping that poorly-led Russian troops will exhaust themselves against their defensive wall and fall to a Ukrainian counter offensive in the spring.

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The defence of Ukraine: the fight for liberal values

On 24th February 2022 an old friend sent me a Facebook direct message.  He apologized to me if he had ever spoken the threat of President Vladimir Putin’s Russia down.  This was after years of debating and getting to know each other on the University Model United Nations (MUN) Conference circuit.  I had won awards for representing Russia on the MUN Security Council passionately and accurately.  The invasion of Ukraine hadn’t begun.  It had begun 8 years before.

What followed on 24th February 2022 was not necessarily inevitable, but our country and the West need to face up to the truth that our actions and inactions made it more likely.  Simply put, our inadequate responses to Putin’s escalating behaviour over the years led us to this point.  For years we postponed the question of standing up to Putin.  In return he smelled our fear.  The tragic irony is that if we acted then the potential costs would be minimal compared to now.  By acting late there are no guaranteed safe ways out of this situation.  Thus are the costs of appeasing bullying on an international scale.

Putin’s Russia is conducting a war against liberal values and any semblance of a liberal rules based international order.  The United Nations Charter enshrines the right of all countries to determine their own foreign policy.  It also recognizes the right of countries to resist invasion from another sovereign state and for allied nations to provide all necessary aid to maintain that resistance.

What should our stance be as a party?  In my opinion a Liberal Foreign Policy should not be a pacifist foreign policy when Europe’s liberty is under threat.  Our party should be urging our government to convene with Europe to help create a continent wide action plan for every willing European nation to do their best to match, and hopefully exceed Russia’s arms production.  Ways to finance such efforts will need to be found.  Significant windfall taxes on large and thriving energy companies could help in this.  Ukraine should certainly not be begging for anything from us at this stage.

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Spring Conference – Get your awkward questions in….

One of the important bits of our internal party democracy is that each of the Federal Committees needs to submit a report to Conference, which is subject to a vote. The chair of the Committee also takes questions at Conference.

These accountability sessions are often boring, but can, occasionally, make important changes.

Back in 2021, a member used the report session on the Federal Board to submit a request for a separate vote which ended the Steering Group project. This had been introduced as a way of streamlining the decision-making process which many people, myself included, saw as reducing accountability. I was very annoyed that my mandate as a directly elected Board member had been interfered with in this way.

The irony of this is that that vote would have passed if the “payroll” vote had been around. Although the Conference was online, our MPs and senior office bearers were actually in Canary Wharf, where Ed Davey was going to give his leader’s speech to an audience for the first time since the pandemic.

The opportunities for decent scrutiny in the party are diminishing rapidly, so the Conference session is an important opportunity for members to have their say.

The committee reports have now been published and there’s a lot to chew over.  New appointments to the Federal Appeals Panel, changes to the disciplinary process, new affiliated organisations to approve and work plans for all the committees are in there. I was drawn to something a bit spicy that departing Federal People Development Committee Chair Mary Regnier Wilson said in her report as it chimed with the article I wrote on Saturday about the need for us to develop a compelling pitch for people’s votes.

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Knowsley, immigration, Prevent and the return of the Far Right

Over the weekend, further anti-migrant protests continued in Rotherham and elsewhere following protests in Knowsley last week held outside a Hotel housing asylum seekers.  Roughly 300 people from the local area were involved initially, before around 150 far-right protesters joined later. Some threw fireworks and a group attacked a police van with hammers before setting it alight. One police officer and two members of the public suffered light injuries. Fifteen people were arrested on suspicion of violent disorder, mostly from the local area.

Far-right agitators had played a significant part in the protest from the start. A video purporting to show an encounter between a 15-year-old girl and a 25-year-old man asking for her phone number was shared heavily, initially in fascist circles, with the unfounded claim that the man was an asylum seeker. It quickly gained a wider audience.

Three days before, the far-right group Patriotic Alternative had turned up outside the Hotel with a banner reading, “Europe belongs to the European.” Members distributed several hundred leaflets with the slogan, “5-star hotels for migrants whilst Brits freeze.”

Two days prior to Knowsley, in the House of Commons, Home Secretary Suella Braverman welcomed the Shawcross review of Prevent, including its judgement that the programme had laid too much emphasis on the danger presented by extreme right ideology. “While obscuring the Islamist threat,” the home secretary told MPs, “Prevent has defined the extreme right-wing too broadly, encompassing the respectable right and centre-right.”

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Beyond potholes … addressing fly-tipping is an issue LibDems can campaign on in cities everywhere

Canvassing in the Hounslow by-election recently, I couldn’t help but notice old refrigerators, household waste, and builders’ rubble accumulated on the street corners and estates of Heston West. Residents were fed up and felt that they were being taken for granted. Statistically, Hounslow has the 2nd highest number of fly-tipping incidents in London. Even more depressing is that the Labour-run Council only bothered to issue 53 Fixed Penalty Notice fines for fly-tipping in 12 months. (Fly-tipping data for all UK Local Authorities is available here).

Fly-tipping is a real blight on the sense of pride everyone wants for the place they live. Council-run housing estates are especially popular locations for fly-tipping. Even worse, the daily exposure to stained mattresses, soiled nappies, and other waste constantly drags on the mental health and general well-being of the people living on them.

For Liberal Democrats getting serious about fixing urban fly-tipping is an opportunity to show city-dwellers what a community-minded approach can achieve. Our Heston West candidate has already adopted action on this blight as one of the major themes of his campaign. There is a lot Local Authorities can do about this problem, but only a few are doing enough. For challengers in Local Elections, this is an opportunity to demonstrate the difference a LibDem approach can make.

Two years ago in “leafy” Kingston there was a noticeable increase in fly-tipping during the pandemic. Statistically, Kingston is one of London’s least fly-tipped boroughs, but that is no consolation for people living with a problem in their area. Certain streets and locations of the borough received significant dumps of household waste/furniture and black bags. Housing estates and flats above shops especially had problems. Council Departments in Housing, Highways, and Parks were not working together, and issues were being handled poorly, frustrating residents and Councillors. And just Like Hounslow at that time very few Fixed Penalty Notices were being issued.

With the support of the LibDem Group, I initiated a fly-tipping task force. The task force brought together councillors, officers, and the vast amount of data gathered by the Council to identify ‘hot spots’. We then systematically set about fixing the worst areas through site visits and engaging with residents and local businesses. Each area had a slightly different problem and some issues were more difficult to resolve than others.

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Bishop of Oxford’s essay scores A+

“I’m a member of the Church of England” is not a phrase I often shout at the top of my voice in Liberal Democrat circles.

When my ecclesiastical membership becomes apparent, my normal “escape route” is to say that I am a “Tutu Anglican”. In all matters of the church, I find it sufficient to say “What Desmond said”. For example, the great Archbishop said:

I would not worship a God who is homophobic and that is how deeply I feel about this.

Bishop Steven Croft, who as the Bishop of Oxford is a member of the House of Lords, published a 52-page essay on November 4th 2022.

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Welcome to my day: 20 February 2023 – a transport of delight and a birthday greeting…

For those of you who don’t have the joy of living in the countryside, you will be aware of the existence of large boxes on wheels which pass up and down roads near you, stopping regularly to pick up and drop off complete strangers. Buses are relatively rare in my neck of the woods, however, so journeys need to be planned more thoroughly.

And that’s how I spent my Saturday, using the temporary £2 fare to travel from Bury St Edmunds to Lincoln, using five buses and travelling via Thetford, Kings Lynn, Spalding and Skegness. And yes, it took more than …

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Poll highlights need for Lib Dems to develop compelling narrative

A poll of “blue wall” seats this week should make senior Lib Dems charged with delivering our next election campaign pause for thought.

Field work carried out by Redfield and Wilton Strategies last weekend shows Labour 7 points ahead of the Tories in seats the Conservatives currently hold in the south of England, but the party of Government gaining 2% and us going down 2% since the last poll a couple of weeks before.

Of the 42 seats that Redfield and Wilton count as the Blue Wall, there are not that many that we are seriously targeting so our 17% polling figure should not alarm us too much. However, the Tories are fixing their attention and massive resources on defending those seats and will not miss the opportunity to persuade people that these seats are between them and Labour not them and us. We will obviously be countering that where we are strong with local messaging so that people are in no doubt that it’s a two horse race between us and the Conservatives. We’ve been building very strong foundations in those seats over the past few years. However, we don’t want even a few people in the likes of Winchester and Esher and Walton thinking that they should be voting Labour to get rid of the Tories. If they do, then we’ll have Tory MPs, and surely nobody wants the likes of Dominic Raab in Parliament for another five years.

As Lib Dems we know the importance of targeting our resources very carefully. This, however, shouldn’t come completely at the expense of our national poll rating. The national mood music is very important both in our target seats and beyond. We need to be thinking about the political landscape for the next election and the one after that. Only by getting ourselves into more second places can we hope to properly break through. There is no point in winning a handful of seats in 2024 and ending up with the north face of the electoral Eiger to climb everywhere else.

Our national poll rating remains stubbornly low. We haven’t recovered from our coalition lows, except for that brief period when we were actually saying things that excited people in the early part of 2019. Capturing the imagination with a strong message and giving people a reason to vote for us is a good thing and we shouldn’t shy away from it.

We seem to be so terrified of saying anything that might upset the voters in the blue wall that we end up not saying anything at all. And those progressive minded voters who we need to  back us need to hear us talk about the things that matter to them too. And in truth, the things that matter to them matter to us.

I sense a frustration amongst activists in Labour facing areas that the increasingly centralised national Lib Dem campaign machine is not bothered enough with them.

We need to recover our boldness, passion and sense of indignation at what the Tories have done to this country super quick. We need to start using the P word, the S word the B word and the C word to show how the country can be a much better and happier place to live. We need to talk about ending poverty. We need to sympathise with the aims of our public sector workers who are striking for a decent pay rise and less stressful working conditions. We need to be much more robust in talking about the failures of Brexit which are damaging virtually every aspect of our lives. And we need to win the culture wars, not stand cowed as people are marginalised and demonised by the right wing media.

As Liberal Democrats we care deeply and instinctively about inequality and tearing down the barriers that people face that suck opportunity from them. That everyone should have enough food, safe and warm shelter and the resources to participate in life to the full should not be as controversial as the right wing media makes out every day, yet we don’t challenge them enough. We should be riding a coach and horses through the  Conservative narrative which sets people against each other. We want people to have a decent share of the pie, not fight each other for an ever decreasing pile of stale crumbs. So we need to start talking about ending poverty and giving people a fair crack of the whip.

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Is Pakistan heading for a Sri Lankan-style meltdown

Pakistan, meaning the land of the spiritually pure and clean, is, alas effectively skint.

Ten thousand containers sit at ports unless payment is received, industry has no power for production, and an agricultural state is now importing food..if it can afford to.

A macroeconomic meltdown is underway with all the conventional smoke signals: a collapsing economy, rising inflation of 30%, a run on the currency (thus making imports more expensive for locals), depleting reserves (less than the cost of a decent Premier League side …ie shy of $3bn), fuel and now food shortages, with the staple chapati flour in short supply.

Wages arrears threaten food security, health outcomes have worsened with malaria on the rise, education attainment is appalling, and literacy rates are barely over 50%.

Successive failure of policy since independence in 1947 has led to this outcome – IMF bailouts, Arab largesse, US dollars to keep the Taliban at bay, Chinese mercantilism of late –  none of it has stalled the longer-term trend towards a failing state. The risks of a Sri Lankan-style total collapse are now real, even if there is a short-term sugar rush of IMF support and additional Gulf financing.

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Mark Pack: My monthly report to members

We have a chance this May to achieve something we’ve only ever managed twice before in our party’s entire history: make it five rounds of local election net gains in a row.

We should be excited about that possibility. Not only for reasons of psephology but also for reasons of power.

Every gain we make will mean more people benefiting from Liberal Democrats in office, and every gain we make will mean more opportunity to turn our policies into action.

Policies such as the great record in Eastleigh of building new houses – and keeping on winning elections.

To keep our run of local election gains going in May we need two things: candidates and teams to help them. The last time this round of seats were up for election, our calculations show that we missed out on several hundred (yes, hundred) further gains because we didn’t have enough candidates in winnable territory.

Centrally, the party is doing more to publicise the opportunities to be a candidate and to encourage more people to think about i., (The data from these surveys ends up in Lighthouse so it’s available to all local parties.)

But nothing quite beats the in person conversation, the chat over coffee, to help more people realise what a great candidate and councillor they would be. 

That’s particularly important for potential candidates for under-represented groups, who can need that extra encouragement that our party is a welcoming home for them.

Then we need to get our candidates elected, which is where help from people who don’t have local elections in their own area can be so important. Going to help in person or picking up the phone to make some calls makes the difference in close contests.

If you can help with either of these tasks, please do. There’s also a wide range of free training available to help you make the most of these opportunities.

Working together, we can get more Liberal Democrats elected and get more things done such as turning a disused rubbish tip bequeathed by a Conservative-run council into a successful solar farm, helping our planet and generating income to pay for high quality local services.

The paradox at the heart of British politics

Alongside that local picture, there’s a paradox in our national politics we also need to navigate our way through.

The public increasingly views Brexit negatively. The headline figures show a slow but sustained, long-term trend.

Some of this change comes from long-term demographic trends as those joining the adult population are overall much more pro-European than the average. Some of it too comes from people changing their minds – although much of that is a churn to/from don’t know.

In fact, when YouGov recently asked about how people would vote in a new referendum, there was only a net 1.5% of people switching direct all the way from Leave to Remain. Moreover, those increasing pro-European views are also often quite soft. Put simply, the more that the possible conditions of Britain rejoining the EU are mentioned, the further support drops.

Even so, the overall trends are clearly headed in the right direction given our pro-Europeanism. Yet there is a paradox here. Because while public opinion is increasingly negative about Brexit, public opinion is even more strongly of the view that the most important issues to people, their families and to the country are other topics.

Different pollsters ask these questions in different ways, but the pattern of answers is similar. That pattern matters because, as the last general election showed, however much we might wish the election to be about one issue, in a democracy the voters get to choose what an election is about – and they can choose to make it about something else.

Today the most important issues are the economy, cost of living and health services. These affect people directly, now, in very practical and obvious ways.

Many people face big waits for a GP appointment, can’t get on an NHS dentist waiting list, worry about ambulance times if things do go wrong, and millions are stuck on waiting lists.

Overwhelmingly, the public wants to hear those who seek to lead them concentrating on these issues. Talking about other issues instead can feel at best like missing the point and at worst disrespectful to the immediate pressures and worries they face.

The way to show these voters we understand their lives is to talk about the economy, the NHS, practical issues in their area affecting their lives, and the underlying sense of being taken for granted by the Conservatives.

Party Awards: get your nominations in

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Lib Dems react to Sturgeon resignation

I might disagree with Nicola Sturgeon on many things, but I have long liked her personally.  She is one of the best political communicators we have had, someone who is very good at empathy and emotional connection. Her resignation speech today was dignified, sincere and candid about the pressures she has faced after eight years in the role.

Sturgeon is standing down on her own terms at a time of her choosing. Her work ethic is pretty legendary and she feels that she doesn’t have within her the capacity to continue working at this pace after 8 years in the top job.

Her leadership during the pandemic, described today by Scottish Lib Dem Leader Alex Cole-Hamilton as “a hell of a shift,” was not perfect but had a clarity and compassion that others lacked. Alex said in a BBC interview that today was not a day for throwing political brick bats and paid tribute to the First Minister personally:

The leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats says Scotland faces “many challenges” and he calls on the SNP to “get stability restored” after the first minister steps down.

But today is “not a day for political attacks”, Alex Cole-Hamilton tells BBC News.

Despite having a “combative” relationship with the outgoing first minister, Cole-Hamilton recalls a warm moment between the two when the FM offered him “words of comfort” after his young daughter choked on a coin and had to be resuscitated around five years ago.

Watch here:

Later he added:

Nicola Sturgeon’s talent has undoubtedly shaped Scottish political life and she deserves to be thanked for her public service. Today is not a day for political attacks.  I wish her well for everything that comes next.

It is to Nicola Sturgeon’s credit that she has been open about the pressures and stresses that leadership has involved.  Everyone will recognise how hard it will have been particularly to steer the country during the pandemic and the weight of those decisions.

Scotland needs leadership that will focus on what really matters because every corner of our NHS is in crisis, the cost of living is punishing, islanders still need new ferries and education deserves to be a top priority.

Scottish Liberal Democrats will work hard to move the debate on from the divisions of the past because people can’t wait for years behind yet more arguments about independence. Scotland needs new hope, right now.

Alex is not the only person to have been impressed by her kindness. Back in 2011, she took time out of her day to send me, a random nobody activist in an opposition party, a lovely message of sympathy when our much loved campaigns director Andrew Reeves died.

It is also worth saying while she has recently been attacked on women’s rights, mainly by people who have never done anything for women in their lives, she is a committed feminist who has done a great deal to improve all diversity strands in her own party.  She also – eventually – delivered 30 hours of term-time childcare for 3 and 4 year olds and introduced the Scottish Child Payment which gives £25 per week to families on the lowest incomes.

Here’s what other Lib Dems have been saying about her resignation and we’ll update as more comments come in:

Christine later wrote a very generous column in the Express.

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Aylesbury – the estate that took the crown

The Netflix series “The Crown” Series 4 Episode 5. The camera pans across what appear to be desolate tower blocks and an inner-city, high-rise wasteland with little hope. It’s the home of Michael Fagan, the intruder who so famously gained entry to Buckingham Palace and sat on the Queen’s bed.

In the episode in question the Queen (Olivia Colman) gathers herself after the shock of the appearance of Fagan (Tom Brooke) in her bedroom. She rallies her famous small talk and asks: “and where do you live?” answer: “King’s Cross.” “Is it nice?” “Not really.”

But the setting is not King’s Cross. In fact, the glimpses we see of Fagan’s world are South of the river. It’s the Aylesbury estate in Walworth, Southwark. The Aylesbury, home to Wendover, the longest tower block in Europe and part of Faraday ward, at one time one of the most deprived wards in the UK.

I knew it well as one of the Lib Dem councillors for the estate in the nineties and noughties.

The Aylesbury is the edgy setting for many a TV show. The towers feature on a Madonna video and countless episodes of the Bill. As a young woman I experienced plenty of frightening times on the estate. Walking back from a meeting on Wendover late at night I was followed by two men in a car which sped off once the occupants had had the fun of seeing my terror close up.

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The alternative reality of the political right

Liberal Democrats operate in a world in which we assume that those we talk to and work with are reasonable, open-minded, fair and generous, and share broadly the same assumptions about society that we do. Except, of course, that those in power don’t. To an increasing degree, Conservatives who read the Telegraph, Mail and Spectator, watch Talk TV and GB News, follow research by right-wing think tanks and see US Republicans as their closest political soulmates live in an alternative reality.

Liz Truss is a classic example of this. After her rapid exit from the Prime Ministership, she travelled to Washington, to institutes already well-familiar from previous visits, to regain her intellectual self-confidence. The lengthy essay the Telegraph has since published for her was headlined ‘I was brought down by the Left-wing economic establishment’. That’s the Treasury, the Office for Budget Responsibility, the City of London, the solid ranks of economists in leading universities in the UK and other wealthy countries, even the business journalists of the Times. They’re all part of a left-wing consensus, against which right-wing free marketeers must valiantly struggle, with only the support of hedge-fund and property billionaires to finance their fight.

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“Why would you stand again?”

Bonkers? You have nothing better to do? What’s the point? Don’t you feel that your efforts are worthless? I often wonder whether standing again, literally after being elected 12 months ago, sounds “sane”. It feels like only yesterday I wrote to readers of the Liberal Democrat Voice to introduce myself as a candidate in the May 2022 Local Elections. I wanted to share my story, challenge some of the stereotypes and prove that only the sky’s the limit if we passionately believe in something. This is why I was delighted to get elected and overall, I am enjoying every minute of being able to serve you as your local councillor.

The national and international political landscape is not helping; the war in Ukraine, cost of living crisis, sky-rocketing inflation. Who would have thought that 12 months later, members of the Conservative Party would have selected their third Prime Minister? Has much changed? Not in my opinion. Is this why some many people are fed up with the Government, political status-quo and feel completely disengaged?

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Welcome to my day: 13 February 2023 – time to unfurl our internationalist colours

I’m a believer in an interconnected world, where the United Kingdom builds strong links with its neighbours and across the globe on the basis of mutual interest and cooperation. That means that I’m not a Conservative, as they evidently believe that such links should be purely transactional and, given their sense of entitlement, heavily weighted in our favour. Funnily enough, that doesn’t seem to be working out for them or, more importantly, for the rest of us.

There’s been a good deal of disappointment on this website about the fact that, whilst Liberal Democrats have been vocal about what is wrong with the Government’s approach in addressing the ills of Brexit, the seemingly obvious next step – talking about the advantages of rebuilding some, perhaps all, of the relationship has been very much soft-pedalled.

Does the Party’s private polling suggest that voters have given up on any hope of rejoining the European Union, or perhaps that it isn’t a priority for enough voters yet?

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Age does not give a blue political rinse

There is a long standing aphorism that people become more conservative with age. A well known example that comes to is Winston Churchill. However, the evidence for age giving a blue rinse to voter’s politics has been uneven. New surveys and analyses suggest that while many people may previously have swung to the right in later life, that is possibly no longer the case. People are remaining liberal thinking longer and later in life. This gives hope for progressive parties as the “Thatcher’s children” generation ages and a more liberal cohort advances in age and remains liberal thinking.

This has implications for all parties. The Conservatives have recently swung to the right, playing to the older generation. Leading Tory politicians seem to believe that voters are made in their own image. That folly means they are losing the younger voter.

There is now a challenge for progressive parties, which need to ensure that they retain liberal thinkers into old age. There are signs that is happening.

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War in Europe and the role of the UK

The Big Lie of the Russian position regarding the war in Ukraine is that they had no choice than to invade. They did have choices, and furthermore they should see the events of 2014 onwards in Ukraine as a Russian policy failure, rather pleading mere victimhood. The harsh reality is that all deaths in the war were and are avoidable.

This is Step One in the doctrine of ‘know your enemy’. But to go beyond Step One it is necessary to reject the Western Big Lie; that the war was unprovoked. The ‘retail’ position of the UK is that Russia invaded because Putin, and the Russian government, are irrational and mad. This is quite the opposite of ‘know your enemy’, and an attempt to mask the role of US neo-conservatives in Ukraine, especially since 2014. This is the same group of individuals behind the 2003 Iraq war, the extended war in Afghanistan, Western involvement in the Syria, Somalia and Libya conflicts, and other adventures. They all resulted in relatively negative net outcomes for the US, UK and Western Allies.

The UK position for the public domain is however understandable in times of war; to show resolve and maintain public support. The point made is that Russia must be removed from all de-jure Ukrainian territory, President Putin must step down, and all efforts covert and overt, kinetic and cyber must be made to bring this about. Weapon supplies must be stepped up to support the ‘regime change’ doctrine that Russia will eventually be comprehensively defeated. Few might fully realise that this is likely unachievable without nuclear war.

For UK parliamentarians and political parties, the future path of the war may require ‘heads above the parapet’, the absence of which resulted in the Afghan war dragging on for at least 15 years longer than necessary. At least the UK Liberal Democrats objected to the Iraq war project.

However, there are two reasons why the UK position on Ukraine is very difficult for UK parliamentarians.

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Another Daily Mail misogyny fail

I woke up around 6am this morning. After rearranging dogs so that I wasn’t clinging to the edge of the bed, I should have gone back to sleep. Instead I made that error of picking up my phone and looking at Twitter. Ok, so I might have wanted to see what people were saying about last night’s episode of Death in Paradise, but that’s not really an excuse.

What I saw enraged me. A Daily Mail headline asking “Did living in the shadow of his high achieving wife lead to unthinkable tragedy?” This referred to the murder of Epsom College head Emma Pattison and her 7 year old daughter by her husband.

That was bad enough, but then I discovered the previous day’s headline. Apparently the murderer was “desperate to do more with his days” after his business failed.

Suggesting that either of these things is remotely an excuse, particularly in a headline, perpetuates attitudes that have no place in a civilised society.

The media tries to construct a false narrative that women being murdered by their domestic partner  is “isolated” rather than two or three occurrences per week.

 

For as long as men have been abusing and murdering women, their excuses for doing so have carried much more weight in society than they deserve.

Women’s behaviour, clothes, sexual history, earnings, weight, or careers are just some of the things that have been blamed rather than the behaviour of the perpetrator themselves.

I am fed up of the media gaslighting women into believing that they are responsible for the behaviour of abusive men.

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Was an obscure set of elections in Mid Suffolk a pointer towards May?

Welcome to Mid Suffolk, a historically Conservative, rural District in the East of England. Liberal Democrats had led a coalition administration until 2003 but, since then, it has been Conservative-led. By the way, don’t take Wikipedia too seriously when it suggests that it was in no overall control between 2005 and 2007 – the Independents around here generally aren’t.

Labour have, over the years, faded into insignificance, having disappeared from the council chamber in 2007 (apart from a lone councillor in Stowmarket North from 2011-15) and only ran eight candidates across the District in 2015. The Greens won their first seat in Mendlesham in 2003 and had slowly built up their strength through classic LibDem-style campaigning to become the official opposition by 2015, albeit with only five of the forty councillors, whilst the Liberal Democrats had fallen away to a clutch of long held wards.

It would be fair to say that the prospects for change in 2019 were not promising, despite boundary changes and a resultant reduction of the number of councillors from forty to thirty-four. Indeed, the political editor of the East Anglian Daily Times, Suffolk’s main newspaper, glossed over Mid Suffolk as being relatively uninteresting.

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Sunak reshuffle road to oblivion?

It seems to be a sign of a prime minister’s prowess that new departments are created or existing departments are reshaped during their tenure. All politicians want to leave their mark but there is always a parallel agenda. Promoting loyal supporters and getting rid of those causing trouble, and of course, those who have found to have broken the rules.

The need to replace the ambitious Nadhim Zahawi came after he was sacked as Chair of the Conservative Party and Minister without Portfolio for breaching the ministerial code.  All that Rishi Sunak needed to do was to appoint a new Chair of the Conservative Party and give them a seat at the cabinet table.

But Sunak instead decided on a mini reshuffle.

The new department structure was heralded as delivering Rishi Sunak’s five promises: to halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce debt, cut waiting lists and stop the boats.

Grow the economy? Fair enough but not in the short term. Halve inflation? Only perhaps in the margins. Reduce debt? No way. Cut waiting lists? Irrelevant. Stop the boats? Of course not. The reorganisation of departments that might prove a lasting legacy for the UK but it will have no impact on the Tories electoral prospects.

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We must target the more diverse areas in London and win

“There are low hanging fruit in London for the taking”

What my good friend Cllr Kuldev Sehra means by this is that there are many areas that are looking for an alternative, when they think their vote is taken for granted. Kuldev is part of the team helping the Chiswick LibDems in a by-election in Hounslow. This has never been an area that the Lib Dems have targeted but from early conversations there is some interesting potential here. Cllr Sehra is our first turban wearing Sikh LibDem London councillor elected in Richmond, Whitton ward, last May, he is a great local …

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Conference highlights horrific impact of cost of living crisis on women

This week a Conference organised by the Women’s Budgeting Groups in all 4 nations of the UK looked at the specific and disproportionate impact of the cost of living crisis on women.

Women were described as the “shock absorbers of poverty” as evidence showed how they often went without essentials, including food, in order to lessen the impact of soaring prices on their families.

We heard some harrowing accounts of the toll this takes on women’s physical and mental health.

Steffan Evans,  from the Bevan Foundation in Wales, described the results of YouGov polling they had commissioned to try to understand the impact. The number of people cutting back on food had gone up from a bad enough 26% in July to 39% in January.

The impact was worse amongst households on benefits, renters, lone parents, households with children and disabled people.

He expressed concern about impact of withdrawal of Government support in April.

He also highlighted the impact on long term health  of living with no heating and condensation and mould.

He concluded that we need to fix the system, not ameliorate with short term cash payments

Next up was Dr Laura Robertson, from the Poverty Alliance who talked about the research carried out in Scotland by the Scottish Women’s Budgeting Group.

They interviewed 30 women from a range of backgrounds who were on low income and conducted a diary exercise with 8 women who submitted weekly diaries.

They found deepening experience of destitution and poverty, of people going hungry and cold

Rural households dependent on oil and households on prepayment meters were struggling most with energy costs

Mothers mentioned struggling to provide nappies, formula, clothes and  school uniform for their children and said that school holidays were really difficult.

There was a negative impact on physical and mental health, increased isolation as they couldn’t afford leisure activities, guilt, shame and stigma of not being able to afford basics.

Coping strategies shared by women to manage rising costs include extreme cuts to household expenditure – skipping meals, looking for discounted items in supermarkets, cutting back on energy use –  including heating and turning off fridge and freezer, stopping social activities.

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