The challenge for liberals everywhere – what if Trump’s policies actually work?

A provocative title? Of course there is much to offend us in President Trump’s pronouncements, along with the character and antics of his various nominations to Government posts. But if we previously assumed that much of what he said was bluster, we now have to face the reality that he means what he says, and consider what the outcomes might be. In particular, what if he succeeds?

This is not a simple question. To start with – what does “success” look like? We often condense that into simple numbers – GDP growth, inflation, stock market indices and unemployment figures. It is certainly possible that by these simplistic measures, and in the short term, Trump might succeed and grow the US economy without runaway inflation. With the world’s reserve currency and largest economy under his control, he has options not available to the UK and most other countries, and if he can bully OPEC into increasing oil & gas production alongside increases in US domestic production, falling energy costs might offset the inflationary effects of import tariffs, along with his programme of deregulation and gutting of Government Agencies tasked with policing and enforcing what regulations remain.

I know what you’re thinking (because you’re reading LDV) – what about the cost? What about climate change and damage to the environment? What about all the lives destroyed when settled yet illegal migrants get rounded up and deported? What about inequality and minorities? What about healthcare and reproductive rights?

And you are absolutely correct, but what will the headlines be? Particularly when the full impact of some of his policies may not be felt until after he leaves office.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

United States

A stroke of the pen is not enough to end America’s birth right citizenship laws. Donald Trump has so many more political and legal mountains to climb before his presidential decree can take effect.

First there is the law. Already 24 Democratic states have launched lawsuits opposing Trump’s sudden end to birth right citizenship.

They are on firm ground. The Fourteenth Amendment of the US constitution says: “All persons born…in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.”

Trump claims that birth right citizenship has never challenged in the courts. That is wrong. In the …

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Observations of an Expat: And So It Begins

At the end of the first week of Trump 2.0 the world is left shell-shocked trying to find a way through an artillery barrage of presidential decrees.

He promised the decrees. He promised action. He didn’t lie. Not enough people believed him.

In less than a week Trump has—among other things—announced that he is going to end the right of citizenship for those born in the United States; closed America’s southern border and dispatched the army to help  guard it.

Because Trump clashed with Anthony Fauci—the man who coordinated America’s response to covid—he has ordered that the websites for the National Institute for Health, Centre for Disease Control and Federal Drug Administration to stop issuing health advisories.

Department of Justice lawyers who worked on his prosecution plus the DoJ’s International Division and Criminal Division, are to be sacked and replaced with MAGA loyalists

Federal employees have been told that they will suffer “adverse consequences” if they refuse to turn in colleagues who “defy orders to purge” their departments of diversity, equity and inclusion measures and personnel.

The Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act were signature achievements of the Biden Administration and universally welcomed by the American business community. But they were Biden’s. Trump has scrapped them at the cost of tens of billions of dollars.

Tariffs have yet to be imposed. They are slated to be slapped on Canada and Mexico—at the 25 percent level—from 1 February. On Thursday Trump told the Davos Economic Forum that unless foreign companies moved their businesses to America they would suffer “trillions of dollars in tariffs.”

But perhaps the most disturbing of Trump’s decrees was the 1,500 pardons for the January 6 Capitol Hill riots. Not even his own vice president—JD Vance—thought he would go that far.

The Fraternal Order of Police—America’s largest police union, asked: “What happened to Republican Law and Order? This completely undermines the rule of law and is a stain on Trump’s legacy.”

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24 January 2025 – today’s press releases

  • US trade tariffs: Trump doesn’t listen to “please”
  • A&E deaths: “Sickening” new analysis reveals deadly consequences of broken NHS as Lib Dems call for inquiry
  • Wendy Chamberlain MP’s Bill bids to remove charity lottery fundraising cap

US trade tariffs: Trump doesn’t listen to “please”

Responding to the the Business Secretary’s comments about Trump trade tariffs this morning, Daisy Cooper MP, Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesperson, said:

Government ministers going cap in hand to Trump, pleading with him not to tax our goods, simply won’t work.

Trump doesn’t listen to “please”. He’s an unpredictable trading partner who’s shown he’ll slap massive tariffs on the UK at the drop of a hat.

Instead, we’ve got to negotiate with him from a position of strength – from within a new and bespoke customs partnership with the EU, that will unleash the potential of many British businesses to drive up trade with our biggest and closest trading partner.

A&E deaths: “Sickening” new analysis reveals deadly consequences of broken NHS as Lib Dems call for inquiry

Responding to new analysis of ONS data which suggests that more than 50,000 people died last year after long A&E waits, Liberal Democrat Health and Social Care spokesperson Helen Morgan MP said:

This new analysis is sickening. It lays bare the deadly consequences of a health service that has been run into the ground with patients and their loved ones often paying the ultimate price.

The Conservative Party should never be forgiven for what it did to our NHS and the tragedy their neglect has left it in its wake, but it is simply not good enough for this new government to sit on its hands any longer.

We need to see immediate action to get to the bottom of these deadly delays.

The government must urgently launch a CQC inquiry into the chaos in our A&Es and ensure patients never have to suffer through something like this ever again.

Wendy Chamberlain MP’s Bill bids to remove charity lottery fundraising cap

Wendy Chamberlain, MP for North East Fife, will have the second reading of her Bill to remove the outdated caps on charity lottery fundraising on Friday .

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ALDC By-Election Report, 23rd January

This week saw five principal council by-elections for six seats across the UK. Labour and Lib Dems loss a net of one seat this week, with the former gaining one but losing two to SNP and an independent, and the latter placing a close third in the only double vacancy of the week. SNP also lost their only defence in the same ward but gained a seat from Labour in other parts of Scotland.

For the good news, the Lib Dems defended the seat in Liverpool City Council handsomely over the second place Labour candidate. In the Much Woolton & Hunts Cross ward, Cllr Josie Mullen the team worked hard to maintain over half of the vote share in the area, thank you to Josie and team for running a great campaign and holding the seat!

Liverpool City Council, Much Woolton & Hunts Cross
Liberal Democrat (Josie Mullen): 1011 (51.1%, -2.4%)
Labour: 537 (27.1%, -4.2%)
Reform: 218 (11.0%, new)
Green Party: 170 (8.6%, -2.0%)
Conservative: 42 (2.1%, -2.3%)

Featuring a list of 13 candidates, the other Lib Dem defence this week is also a SNP defence in Edinburgh Council, following unfortunate circumstances leading to our by-election winner stepping down. In the Conlinton/Fairmilehead ward, the Tories came in first while the Lib Dems and Labour battled it out until stage 12. Well done and thank you to Peter Nicholson and the team for putting in the effort for a well-fought campaign, this was certainly an uphill battle if there ever was one.

Edinburgh Council, Colinton/Fairmilehead (based on first preference votes, Conservative elected at stage 8, Labour elected at stage 13)
Conservative: 2027 (32.6%, +12.9%)
Labour: 1146 (18.4%, -1.1%)
Liberal Democrat (Peter Nicholson): 1009 (16.2%, -20.0%)
SNP: 840 (13.5%, +2.7%)
Green Party: 426 (6.8%, +1.5%)
Reform: 345 (5.5%, +1.9%)
Independent: 256 (4.1%, +1.8%)
Scottish Family Party: 65 (1.0%, +0.4%)
Independent: 38 (0.6%, -0.2%)
Independent: 30 (0.5%, +0.2%)
Independent: 23 (0.4%, -0.3%)
Independent: 12 (0.2%, new)
Independent: 5 (0.1%, new)

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Take care!

Wishing all our contributors and readers a safe day, especially those in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Storm Éowyn will undoubtedly leave a mess to be cleared up by local Councils. If you can, do tell us how your Council is coping.

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23 January 2025 – today’s press releases

  • Government ruling out customs scheme with EU is an “act of economic negligence”
  • NHS stats: government must convene COBRA amid surge in norovirus cases
  • Lib Dems reveal private company overseeing hundreds of sewage dumps
  • Scot Lib Dems push for prison suicide and fatal accident inquiry reform
  • Cole-Hamilton comments on scrapping of doomed social care centralisation

Government ruling out customs scheme with EU is an “act of economic negligence”

Responding to the Government appearing to rule out the EU’s proposal of the UK joining a European customs area this morning, Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey said:

It is alarming that the Government is happy to negotiate with China but won’t even look at a better trading arrangement with our closest neighbours in Europe. This is an act of economic negligence.

If the Government thinks it will get growth back in the economy by borrowing Boris Johnson’s playbook on European negotiations it is going to end up being sorely disappointed.

It is time for a proper UK-EU customs arrangement so we can strengthen our negotiations with Donald Trump, cut the red tape on our businesses and grow the economy.

NHS stats: government must convene COBRA amid surge in norovirus cases

Responding to the latest NHS stats showing norovirus levels in hospitals to be 80% higher than last year with bed occupancy standing at 96%, well above the 85% that is considered safe, Liberal Democrat Health and Social Care spokesperson Helen Morgan MP said:

The situation for patients and our NHS could not be more stark. People are dying on trolleys in corridors and staff are at breaking point. It cannot be overstated just how grim things are in A&Es across the country.

This is one of the most brutal winters on record following years of shameful Conservative neglect and the current government is now at risk of losing control of this crisis. Any more delay in action has the potential to be deadly for patients.

COBRA must be convened immediately with an emergency plan brought forward to protect patients from this ongoing disaster.

It is time for the government to step up and grip this crisis in a way that they have so far failed to do.

Lib Dems reveal private company overseeing hundreds of sewage dumps

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton has today revealed that more than 500 sewage overspills took place at sites managed by private firms in just twelve months, including more than 100 at the Edinburgh Waste Water treatment work at Seafield, run by Veolia.

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LibLink: Ed Davey on Elon Musk and his malign powers

Ed Davey has written an article for The Guardian under the headline “Elon Musk has shown his hand. If politicians like me won’t curb his malign powers, who will?

He writes:

Much of the coverage of Musk centres on his bizarre actions and declarations, and the controversies that have followed. It’s easy to tune it all out as the dronings of a bore. But he’s so much worse than that. He’s already one of the most powerful people on the planet. He’s the world’s wealthiest man, with a fortune of more than $400bn. And despite turning millions of people away from Twitter with his damaging changes to the platform (not least trying to rebrand it as X), he still controls what hundreds of millions of people around the globe see on their feeds.

As a liberal, I am instinctively deeply alarmed by the concentration of so much power in the hands of one individual. Even if I liked Musk, I’d say it was dangerous. I see it as the fundamental purpose of liberals – whether capital L members of the Liberal Democrats, or like-minded people beyond our party and around the world – to hold the powerful to account and put real power in the hands of ordinary people.

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How do we defend free speech from absolutists and others?

Elon Musk has declared himself an absolutist on free speech.  It’s a declaration which defines the enemy as ‘the woke virus’, which is condemned as shutting off criticism of minority opinions and groups and shouting down those who express views outside their permitted consensus.  It’s also a demonstration of how far the concept of ‘free speech’ has been weaponised by the right and twisted in in its meaning.   If we want to defend free speech from those who twist the principle to fit their prejudices, we need to be clear about it meaning and its limits.

Liz Truss has just told the Voice of America that ‘The left-wing media of Britain including the BBC, including organizations like the Times and the Guardian and the Financial Times, do not like free speech, free market policies, and they don’t like the status quo in this country being challenged and I will take them on.’  Mark Zuckerberg has declared that his fact-checking teams were ‘politically biassed’, and moved a reduced team from California to Texas, to encourage them to check ‘facts’ in a more Trump-friendly way. Free speech is being redefined as part of the ‘anti-woke’ culture war – to insist on the right to express uncomfortably reactionary opinions, and to bend facts to suit different types of right-wing narratives.

Free speech is central to democracy and to liberal values.  But the right to free speech is not the right to say anything to anyone, regardless of evidence, context or consequences.   Laws against libel and slander protect reputations – though often misused to protect the rich and powerful against criticism. SLAPPS (strategic litigation against public participation) have allowed media magnates and offshore oligarchs to stifle hostile comments.  Misinformation, or worse deliberate disinformation, is on the line between legal but antisocial and illegal because of its harmful consequences in promoting disorder.  Holocaust denial is banned in some countries; medical disinformation can be prosecuted in others. Language that stirs up disorder or promotes criminal or terrorist acts is, rightly, prosecuted.

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Pension Funds and Economic Growth

Rachel Reeves’ proposed merger of Local Government Pension Schemes and consolidation with defined contribution pension schemes to create a mega-fund to unlock investment and boost growth is high risk and needs safeguards and guarantees. This is not Government or taxpayers’ money but belongs to the members of each particular pension scheme and is in effect their retirement savings. When Gordon Brown altered the tax position of pension funds he sent many into deficit which brought about the demise of defined benefit final salary schemes – with even the Local Government Schemes moving from “final salary” to “average salary”. The index linking used to be to earnings, then RPI and more recently changed to CPI – even for pensions in payment.

These changes are not being made by the Chancellor to improve pensions but to use pension funds to boost investment in search of growth. Economic growth is the Government’s priority. But what are the risks and knock on effect of this proposal for pensioners? One cannot fix whole systems problems with component level solutions.

There is a wealth of empirical evidence into the social determinates of health which has demonstrated the correlation between income and demand upon the NHS. 3/5ths of the expenditure of the NHS is on older people. Therefore, to constantly reduce or risk the income of older people, who got no benefit from the two  pre-election reductions in National Insurance but do pay more income tax due to the freezing of the tax free personal allowance, recently lost their free TV licence and now their winter fuel allowance will increase the pressures on the NHS at the very time Government is committed to reducing waiting times.

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22 January 2025 – today’s press releases

  • Borrowing figures: Another sign the Chancellor’s Budget has not worked
  • OBR Report: Farm tax will penalise farmers for practically no benefit
  • Cole-Hamilton: SNP must scrap social care power grab now
  • OBR Report: Farm tax will penalise Welsh farmers for practically no benefit
  • OBR Report: Farm tax will penalise farmers and crofters for little benefit to Exchequer
  • Cross-border healthcare difficulties letting patients down

Borrowing figures: Another sign the Chancellor’s Budget has not worked

Responding to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showing UK borrowing has hit its highest December level for four years, Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesperson, Daisy Cooper MP said:

This is yet another sign that the Chancellor’s Budget has not worked. It’s now putting people’s mortgages at risk and will make it even harder for the Chancellor to meet her borrowing rules.

The answer to this is to turbo-charge growth by scrapping the jobs tax, and raising the necessary revenue for our NHS from the big banks and tech companies instead.

After the Conservative Party’s disastrous legacy of economic vandalism, the Chancellor needs to go for growth through fairer tax measures that can unleash growth through small businesses, not undermine it.

OBR Report: Farm tax will penalise farmers for practically no benefit

Commenting on the latest OBR report on the impact of agricultural and business property relief, Liberal Democrat Environment and Rural Affairs spokesperson Tim Farron MP said:

This report confirms that the Government’s misguided family farm tax is mired in problems and will penalise British farmers for practically no benefit.

It is deeply concerning that older farmers will be hit hardest from this tax, with the rug pulled from under them before they can change their plans. And with tax revenue expected to be highly uncertain and unstable for two decades, the Chancellor’s excuses simply don’t stack up.

Farmers are absolutely vital for Britain, putting food on our tables and protecting the British countryside. And they are already battling botched trade deals, declining incomes and high energy prices. The Government must do the right thing and scrap the family farm tax before it’s too late.

Cole-Hamilton: SNP must scrap social care power grab now

Speaking ahead of the ministerial statement on the future of the National Care Service, proposals which would centralise social care services and wrench away control from local communities, Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton MSP said:

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21 January 2025 – yesterday’s press releases

  • Unemployment: Reeves must scrap jobs tax
  • Southport Inquiry: Must get us answers to avoid future failures
  • WASPI: More than 300,000 women in Scotland “betrayed” by Labour decision
  • Welsh unemployment rise: Labour must scrap their Jobs Tax
  • Cole-Hamilton: SNP have left A&E in state of perma-crisis
  • McArthur: Community orders should be credible solutions to prison overcrowding

Unemployment: Reeves must scrap jobs tax

Responding to the latest figures showing unemployment at 4.4%, Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Daisy Cooper MP said:

These latest figures are concerning. The government’s misguided jobs tax is already scaring off small businesses from hiring new people and being able to better serve our communities.

The Chancellor talks about growth but her Budget measures are acting as an anchor against just that.

After years of the Conservative Party’s economic vandalism we cannot see this new government repeat their mistakes. That is why Rachel Reeves needs to scrap her jobs tax to get our economy growing again.

Southport Inquiry: Must get us answers to avoid future failures

Commenting after Starmer’s press conference following the government’s announcement of an inquiry into the Southport murders, Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey said:

The Liberal Democrats welcome this inquiry, which must not shy away from asking tough questions about what went wrong.

This was an utterly horrific tragedy. My thoughts go out to the bereaved families, who lost three young daughters to such brutal violence. We need to ensure that such a senseless attack cannot happen again.

We must learn from these events, and the inquiry must urgently get us the answers we need to avoid future failures.

WASPI: More than 300,000 women in Scotland “betrayed” by Labour decision

Speaking ahead of a Scottish Parliament debate on compensation for WASPI women, Beatrice Wishart MSP has said her party will “fight for WASPI women” as data from the House of Commons library estimated that an estimated 331,780 women in Scotland could be affected.

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Five Lib Dems quiz Starmer on social care, Trump, defence, eating disorders and colleges

Social care, trade deals with Trump’s America, St Helier Hospital, the Strategic Defence Reivew, eating disorders and were the subjects brought to Keir Starmer by Lib Dems Ed Davey, Luke Taylor, Mike Martin, Wera Hobhouse and Alison Bennett at PMQs today.

Here’s Ed’s exchange with the Prime Minister:

The text is below:

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Mark Pack’s January report to members

Farage and Musk are the past, not the future

Seeing someone called a “snivelling cretin” may reinforce all your worst fears about social media. But when it was Elon Musk saying this of Ed Davey, it counts as a badge of honour.

It also illustrates a bigger, and more important, point than ‘look how thin skinned and short of things to say a billionaire is when anyone stands up to him’.

It is about how little to say about our future the likes of Nigel Farage and Elon Musk have beyond nostalgia for an imagined version of our past. For all Elon Musk’s facade as a visionary man of the future, much of his vision is a shrunken, twisted piece of fake nostalgia: a world where the super-rich get to run things, democracy is an optional extra, international borders are high and only his favoured few select demographic categories are worthy people.

Their joint desire to turn the clock backwards is in contrast to our positive liberal vision for a better future. Just because someone is not like me is not a reason to dislike them. Just because someone has different views of religion than me is not a reason to fear them. And just because someone lives in a different country from me is not a reason to treat them as an enemy.

The likes of Farage and Musk excel at grabbing the headlines, but the quiet reality of 2024 was a year in which in Britain us Liberal Democrats took more political power. We won more council seats than the Conservatives and Reform combined in May – and then we had our best general election result in a century, gaining far more seats than Reform, in July.

General Election Review

An important part of building on those successes is our General Election Review, which was headed up by Tim Farron.

Thank you to Tim and the whole team for turning around the review promptly, so that we can get stuck into implementing its lessons as soon as practical in this Parliamentary cycle.

As with the post-2019 review, this one has been shared with all party members because, even though this review is a happier one, it is important once again that members can hold to account those in power at all levels of the party on delivering the review’s recommendations. As Tim explained in the email to members, there are some further recommendations on membership to follow.

The review is asking Federal Conference Committee (FCC) for time to present their findings to our Federal Spring Conference in Harrogate. Alongside that, the Federal Board has agreed to draw up an implementation plan for the recommendations, and you will get more news on that through these monthly reports.

Party Awards

Our Spring Federal Conference in Harrogate is now coming up fast. Which also means it is time to nominate wonderful colleagues for our next round of Party Awards too.

You can read about which awards are up this time, and how to make nominations, here.

Registrations for conference, both in person and online, are also open. I hope to see many of you there.

Congratulations to…

North Devon Liberal Democrats were the top recruiting local party in England in December, topping the charts for the second month running. All but one of the new members were recruited locally by them – giving the party’s local bank balance a handy boost too as local parties receive larger membership payments for locally recruited (or renewed) members.

Congratulations too to the top local recruiters in Scotland – Dumfriesshire and Highlands local parties, tied with each other – and in Wales – Cardiff and the Vale of Glamorgan.

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Consign Trump’s “God” to the dustbin of nonsensical religiosity

In 1963 an Observer headline “Our image of God must go” rocked organised Christianity in these islands, primarily because the call came from John Robinson, the Anglican Bishop of Woolwich. He was addressing the problem of “anthropomorphism”, making God into a person, a quasi-human who sat above the clouds, waiting to catch us out like a grumpy and arbitrary tyrant. Many people spoke about God as a being who could simply turn on or off hurricanes, earthquakes or serious illnesses. Robinson’s take on God seemed eminently refreshing to many of us studying theology at the time. A couple of decades later, many liberal/radical Christian thinkers would come to see John Robinson as relatively conservative, particularly with regard to the authorship of books in the New Testament.
In the sixties, at the cutting edge of exploratory approaches to Christian faith was “Christian/Marxist dialogue”, which was the backdrop to my spending three weeks behind the Iron Curtain with a group of youngish people training for ministry in the churches. Fifty-five years later that all seems like a world away, not just because of the implosion of Soviet style Marxism, but also because we live in a time when engagement with secular issues going hand in hand with the development of interfaith relationships informs the agenda of the mainstream Christian denominations.
So what do we make of Donald Trump’s claim to have God on his side and that he was saved by the said God to make America great again? I am not going to say that Trump’s image of God must go. I’m not sure that he has any notion of image or religious symbolism. It is tempting to think of a traditional God being humbled in the presence of the Donald but let’s put that to one side!
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It’s time for the Liberal Democrats to embrace limitarianism

Ed Davey recently summed up the essence of liberalism: empowering those without power and holding the powerful to account. These words are not just a rallying cry—they are a blueprint for action. If the Liberal Democrats truly want to live up to this mission, we must embrace limitarianism as a core economic policy, and we must do it now.

Limitarianism is the idea that there should be an upper limit to personal wealth. Beyond a certain threshold, the accumulation of wealth ceases to serve individual well-being and begins to entrench inequality, distort democracy, and hoard resources that could benefit society as a whole. Elon Musk, the member of the US government who just performed a Nazi salute at the inauguration of the world’s most powerful politician, and incidentally, the richest man alive, earns the national median wage every single minute of every single day.

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Time to go low if we want democracy to survive

Embed from Getty Images

“When they go low, we go high” Michelle Obama told the 2016 Democratic National Convention. Well, a fat lot of good that did the Democrats back then and in 2024 as well. The problem that the responsible left is facing in nearly every country where a democratic system purports to exist is a failure to recognise unfortunately that it’s bread and butter issues that a lot of people, many with a short memory, care about more and are frankly satisfied with the modern equivalent of what Roman poet, Juvenal, cynically termed “bread and circuses”. The ‘Glory of Rome’ favoured just a chosen few; just as would the ‘Greatness’ of America.

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20 January 2025 – today’s press releases

  • 40 new hospitals: Shoddy attempt to bury bad news on day of Trump’s inauguration
  • Farm incomes in Wales fall by 34% – Liberal Democrats call for Government reset
  • Trump inauguration shows importance of close ties with Europe

40 new hospitals: Shoddy attempt to bury bad news on day of Trump’s inauguration

Responding to the Health Secretary’s announcement that there will be significant delays to the completion of the New Hospital Programme, Liberal Democrat Health and Social Care spokesperson Helen Morgan MP said:

This is a double betrayal. The Conservatives shamelessly made promises they never intended to keep to countless communities served by crumbling hospitals.

Now this government uses the day of Trump’s inauguration in a shoddy attempt to bury bad news, showing an outrageous disregard for patients.

Instead of ducking scrutiny, the Health Secretary needs to publish the full impact assessment of these delays.

Patients have a right to know just how at risk they are, and how many more delays they will have to suffer as a result of the government’s decision.

Farm incomes in Wales fall by 34% – Liberal Democrats call for Government reset

The Welsh Liberal Democrats have called on Labour to reset their relationship with farming and the countryside following the release of statistics showing farming incomes in Wales have fallen by 34% for the period April 2023 to March 2024.

David Chadwick MP, the Liberal Democrats Wales spokesperson in Westminster has said that recent policy failures by both the Welsh Labour Government in Cardiff Bay and the UK Government are damaging agriculture and the wider rural economy in Wales and risk making the situation even worse.

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The starting gun is fired in Runcorn & Helsby

News reaches us that Article 19.7 of the Federal Constitution has been triggered by the likelihood of a by-election in Runcorn & Helsby given that the sitting MP, Mike Amesbury is to be sentenced on 24 February having pleaded guilty to common assault on Thursday.

If you’re an approved Parliamentary candidate, and you’re interested, time is very short, as applications must be received by 6 p.m. tomorrow evening (21 January).

For more details, all relevant information can be found on the Cheshire West and Chester Local Party website.

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New issue of Liberator out

Liberator 427 is out and can be downloaded for free here:

In Liberator 427 we have Commentary, news in Radical Bulletin, Letters, Lord Bonkers’ Diary and:

NOW’S OUR CHANCE

The age of Trump and Starmer needs a radical liberal response based on defending the NHS, rejoining the single market and developing an appeal to working class voters. Paul Hindley explains how to do this

AFGHANISTAN : A COMPLICATED COUNTRY

Keith House and Tonia Craig travelled to one of the world’s least visited countries as tourists in December to see Taliban control in practice

UNSAFE AS HOUSES

Crises over homelessness and substandard housing will continue unless society stops viewing homes as investments, says Martin Wrigley MP

DYING FOR THE RIGHT LAW

Nick Winch’s mother wanted to die but could not legally hasten this. He says the Bill before Parliament may improve things but is full of problems

MAYORS’ NESTS

Labour’s devolution reforms pose a serious threat to the Liberal Democrat approach to local campaigning, says Chris White

FROM THE UKRAINE FRONTLINE

Kiron Reid found himself under fire in Ukraine and found that while more people feel a peace deal is needed, they will never trust Russia.

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TikTok: a Chinese farce in several parts

A popular app enjoyed by 170 million or more Americans went ‘dark’ on Sunday after the Chinese-owned TikTok was banned in the USA as a perceived threat to national security.

I am not a user. My interest is as a ‘China-watcher’ worried about the deteriorating relationship between the world’s two superpowers. I was however surprised to see that there was no outburst of rejoicing from the legion of China ‘hawks’ that this evil weapon of the genocidal Communists had been so effectively shot down (and shut down). Indeed, the originator of the ban (President-elect Trump) and its dutiful implementor (President Biden) seemed to be doing their best to save it. Very confusing.

The origin of the ban was in 2020 when President Trump was campaigning for re-election. One of his rallies was embarrassingly badly attended after college students operated a social media prank on TikTok persuading people not to go. Trump was furious and threatened to have TikTok banned. His political supporters scurried to help and quickly latched onto the fact that TikTok had a Chinese corporate owner (Bytedance), albeit headquartered in Singapore.

In the feverish, hostile bipartisanship which surrounds anything Chinese, it wasn’t difficult to mobilise Congressional support for a ban on national security grounds. Congressional hearings produced no evidence that TikTok’s Chinese owners had ever tried to share sensitive information with Chinese authorities, engage in espionage or do anything more than make a lot of money for shareholders by providing original but harmless entertainment. But they might, it was argued.

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20-23 January 2025 – this week in the Lords

Before I move onto this week’s report, I should take this opportunity to congratulate the new intake of Liberal Democrat peers, Shaffaq Mohammed and our former editorial team colleague here at Liberal Democrat Voice, Mark Pack. Mark will be introduced to the Lords on 13 February, although the Parliamentary calendar doesn’t indicate a date for Shaffaq yet. Oh, and, Mark, do you fancy taking on this column?

I should also say a few words about Jenny Randerson, who is sadly missed. I had the pleasure of working alongside her in the Party’s international work, and she was an astute observer of the politics of the ALDE Party but, most of all, such good company. In the Lords, her grasp of the transport brief, one of the less glamorous but busy frontbench responsibilities, was a firm one. I’ll personally miss her, and I know that I’m not alone in that regard.

And with that, on with the show.

There are two Government Bills this week to occupy Peers this week:

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Welcome to my day: 20 January 2025 – “ask not what your country can do for you”

The past week has seen a series of Liberal Democrat interventions, boldly calling for stronger links between the United Kingdom and Europe. Ed Davey reads every word I write, apparently…

But seriously, it’s nice to see our Party making the weather on Europe, and interesting to see the media response. And it’s not that there’s any sense of desperation – we are, after all, the largest third party in Parliament for a century or so – but the approach is consistent with our core beliefs over decades. In the absence of a credible centre-right political force in this country (and I’m really not suggesting that we fill that vacancy), offering positive reasons to support us has to be a good thing.

The suggestion that we need to rebuild our relationship with the European Union is obviously linked to the rather menacing threat of tariffs on imports from whatever countries offend Donald Trump on any given day, but I am surprised to hear British politicians who say that we should prioritise seeking a trade deal with the United States. And yes, a decent trade agreement with the world’s largest economy would undoubtedly be helpful but is any such deal viable with an “emotionally erratic billionaire with the temperament of one of those kids in Willy Wonka”?

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18-19 January 2025 – the weekend’s press releases

  • Patel on Trump: “naive and dangerous”, say Lib Dems
  • Davey: Trump presidency “deeply worrying for millions”
  • Pressure rises on Govt as two in three Labour voters back closer ties with Europe given Trump presidency
  • More than 11,000 malicious calls to ambulance service in past decade
  • 2024 the worst year on record at A&E

Patel on Trump: “naive and dangerous”, say Lib Dems

Responding to Priti Patel’s comments about the Trump presidency on Laura Kuenssberg’s programme this morning, Calum Miller MP, Liberal Democrat Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs, said:

Priti Patel’s comments on her ‘trust’ in Trump are naive and dangerous. The incoming US administration will be one to watch carefully, to deal with critically – not one in which we should put blind faith.

Her desire to rush into a free trade deal between the UK and US – one that could sell British farmers and food standards down the river – reminds us of where her and her party’s true alliances lie: with the Mar-a-Lago clan, not with constituents here in Britain.

The Conservatives are competing with Reform to be most submissive toward Trump, but we should be approaching the new President from a position of strength.

The Liberal Democrats will continue to push for a fair deal for British people – beginning with a new UK-EU customs union that boosts UK growth.

Davey: Trump presidency “deeply worrying for millions”

Commenting as Trump’s inauguration takes place today , Ed Davey, Leader of the Liberal Democrats, said:

Donald Trump returning to the White House will be deeply worrying for millions of people in the UK and around the world. With a President who promises trade wars, undermines NATO and praises Vladimir Putin, the threats to our national security and our economy are clear.

The UK must lead on the world stage again, standing up for our interests by working closely with other countries – above all our European neighbours.

While Nigel Farage toadies up to Donald Trump and Elon Musk in Washington, Liberal Democrats are working hard for our communities here in the UK. We will press the Government to be far more ambitious and positive in fixing our relationship with Europe, to strengthen Britain’s hand when it comes to dealing with Trump.

Pressure rises on Govt as two in three Labour voters back closer ties with Europe given Trump presidency

A two-thirds majority (64%) of 2024 Labour voters agree that the UK should build closer “economic and security ties with Europe” given Trump’s incoming presidency, polling commissioned by the Liberal Democrats has revealed – piling pressure on the Government to accelerate talks on UK-EU relations as the new presidency gets under way.

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Drugs – the risk of taking the wrong approach – Part 2

Continuing where we left off yesterday, let’s look at some of the other proposals in Policy Paper 47.

Those who work in the criminal justice system know that the ‘simple’ possession offence is the one that comes most often before the criminal courts, and Class B is frequently the most common because it covers cannabis, easily the most ‘popular’ of drugs. I can count on one hand (maybe slight hyperbole) the number of people who have said “yes, I had that drug for supply”. It is always for ‘personal use’ and if that’s the case, how do you prosecute those people if personal use is legal? People could legitimately stockpile large quantities for their own use, or cultivate it, and it would be extraordinarily difficult to prove supply without further intelligence gathering – the very expenditure that this policy paper suggests is inefficient.

The policy paper suggests that a policy of imposing imprisonment for simple possession should be avoided. The situation must have changed since 2001 because anyone – probably everyone – who works in the criminal justice system today will tell you that unless they are charged with dozens of offences, defendants do not receive imprisonment for simple possession. These offences are most usually dealt with by way of a fine and forfeiture and destruction of the drug. I can honestly say, in years of working in the field, I have never seen someone given imprisonment for a simple possession offence where that is the only offence before the court.

Conversely, the policy advocates a zero-tolerance policy on drug driving. That has been overtaken by changes in legislation, as there are now legal limits for drugs use when driving. However, it is hard to imagine reconciling a “use as you see fit” policy on drugs with an “absolutely not” policy on drug driving. People typically do not realise how long drugs stay in the system as they metabolise and I can easily foresee scenarios where people are charged with drug driving and plead not guilty, arguing the government has said they can use drugs, and they didn’t know it was still in their system. This will only pour fuel on the fire of the court backlog issue. This would perhaps be manageable only if, as the policy paper suggests, more was poured into drug awareness and education.

At one point the paper suggests imposing a public policy instruction that it isn’t in the public interest to prosecute certain drugs offences. The drafters of this policy clearly didn’t appreciate the role of the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS), and the role of the legislature. If you don’t want something to be prosecuted, you repeal the offence. You do not try and dictate what the CPS – an arms-length, independent prosecuting agency – does and does not prosecute. Down that road lies madness and a corruption of the role of both the government and the prosecuting agencies. 

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Tom Arms’ World Review

United States

Trump’s run of good luck continues. It seems likely that all but one of his cabinet nominations will be confirmed by the Senate. Congressman Matt Gaetz was the longest of long shots for Attorney General. The Ethics Committee investigation into his drug-fuelled sex antics ruled him out.

Fox News presenter Pete Hesgeth was also expected to fail in his bid to become America’s next Secretary of Defense. A seedy past and lack of experience worked against him. But Hesgeth put up a good show against tough questioning from the Democratic members of the Senate Armed Services Committee. There is nothing the Republican senators like more than a conservative who successfully fights his corner. He is expected to be confirmed on Tuesday.

The same with Pam Bondi who replaced Matt Gaetz as Trump’s choice for Attorney General. Ms Bondi sort of mollified senators when she denied that there was a “enemies list” compiled of people Trump wants prosecuted. But she then qualified this by refusing to rule out taking action against Jack Smith, the Special Prosecutor appointed to investigate the president-elect.

Smith, for his part, is clearly angry that he will not be able to drag Donald Trump into court. This week he released a partially redacted set of documents which clearly stated that if Trump had not been elected president he would be seeing his tailor for an orange onesie. The documents claimed that Trump was guilty of election interference, disrupting an official proceeding of Congress, stealing and hiding classified documents and, almost certainly, trying to overthrow the US government.

Jack Smith is, according to FBI nominee, Kash Patel, at the top of his “enemies list”. Patel has yet to be questioned by a Senate Committee, but he has publicly said that there is an enemy list. Patel, however, will be reporting to Pam Bondi.

Trump meanwhile has insisted that there is a “patriot’s list.” That is an unidentified number of people who were prosecuted for invading the Capitol Building on January 6, 2020. He has promised that he will pardon them. He does not need the assistance of Patel or Bondi to do so. He just needs a pen and paper.

Russia

They call it hybrid warfare. Russia is becoming a master practitioner across Europe and beyond. It involves, misinformation campaigns, cyberattacks espionage and sabotage of military facilities and critical infrastructure, damaging undersea pipelines and electricity cables and interfering in democratic elections.

This week Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that the Russians were even plotting to blow up airliners, “not just against Poland, but against airlines across the globe,” he insisted.

Meanwhile the German government this week ordered police and the air force to shoot down the growing number of drones flying over German and American military bases and critical infrastructure. The Interior Minister said they were suspected of sabotage and espionage.

But the most disturbing incidents have involved undersea cables and pipelines in the Baltic. They carry gas supplies, electricity, 95 percent of the internet traffic and $10 trillion worth of annual financial transactions.

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Drugs – the risk of taking the wrong approach – Part 1

As a solicitor working in the field of criminal law, I see people charged with offences involving controlled drugs every day.  There are many offences, but to name just some:

  • Possession with intent to supply
  • Being concerned in the supply
  • Cultivation
  • Driving under the influence of drugs
  • Fraudulent evasion of a prohibition on importing/exporting a controlled drug
  • Supply (and intent to supply) psychoactive substances

And of course, the one everyone is most familiar with, the offence of simply being in possession of a controlled drug.

The Law

The law on controlled drugs is quite simple and codified in the Misuse of Drugs Act 1971. I won’t go into it in much detail, but it might be an interesting read for those not already familiar. 

For those unfamiliar with the way courts in England & Wales sentence cases, the sentencing bench (whether that’s a bench of magistrates or a District Judge in the Magistrates’ Court, or a Circuit Judge in the Crown Court) are assisted by sentencing guidelines. Drugs offences come under various different headings, but the guidelines helpfully include a search function, and searching “drug” brings many of them up (hopefully this link will assist).

Liberal Democrat Policy

The 2024 manifesto has a section on Crime and Policing, but does not touch on the party’s policy regarding drugs. However, Policy Paper 47 is based entirely around the policy and offers some interesting perspectives and suggestions. Published in 2001, many of the suggestions have now been outstripped by advances in the law, but I believe – and may well be proven wrong – it remains the most complete policy proposal drafted. On speaking to Liberal Democrats over the years it seems to me that many would support the policies contained within.

I’ve included above a link to the policy paper. To name just a few of the suggestions, we have:

  • Implementing a policy of non-prosecution for possession, cultivation for own use, and social supply of cannabis. This would not involve repealing the offence but would involve a public policy declaration that it is not in the public interest to prosecute these types of offences.
  • Re-classifying cannabis as a Class C drug and permitting medicinal use of cannabis derivatives.
  • Ending imprisonment as a punishment for possession of a Class B or Class C drug, where it was for personal use.

All of these suggestions, and the rest, are said to come with many benefits, primarily:

  • Reducing the impact of drug-related crime on law-abiding citizens
  • Encouraging more “problem” drug users to come forward for treatment, without fear of being stigmatised
  • Increasing the resources available for, and the credibility of, drugs education.

My Response

In my view this policy paper, and subsequent suggestions that the Liberal Democrats should be the party of legalisation, is wrong. I do not doubt the motives or beliefs of those who support legislation, but in my view, legalisation takes us down the wrong path.

The statistics are obviously quite old now, but it was suggested in the late 1990s that the number of “hard” drug addicts (i.e., those using Class A drugs, like crack cocaine) had risen to 270,000, and the size of the drugs market in 1998 was estimated at £6.6 billion (then 0.66% of GDP). The suggestion in the paper is that the policy of criminalising drug use – especially for personal use – was disproportionate and when the figures were balanced (62% of spending then went on prosecutions, as opposed to only 25% of education) the policy clearly favoured criminalisation above everything else. This, the paper suggested, was forcing drug-users to hardened criminals for supply and away from possible education and support resources. All of this, in turn, would only drive drug use up.

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Observations of an Expat: Gaza Ceasefire

They were celebrating in Gaza City when the ceasefire was announced on Wednesday. Men, women and children ran into the streets to shout, cry and pray.

Then the Israeli bombs started to fall again. 110 more Palestinians died. Shortly afterwards it was announced that a last-minute hiccup had delayed Israeli cabinet approval. Will the ceasefire hold?

The deal is the result of constant 24/7 negotiations brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the US. The bones of the agreement were announced by Biden in May. Benjamin Netanyahu, however, rejected it at the time.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden can both take a share of the credit. Biden for negotiating the deal and winning UN backing. Trump for saying he would back what Biden parleyed. It was a rare moment of cross-party foreign policy-making and undercut Netanyahu’s hopes of a better agreement from Donald Trump.

The ceasefire itself is in three clear phases. Phase one is due to start on Sunday and last six weeks. It involves the partial withdrawal of Israeli forces; an increased flow of humanitarian aid and the release of some Palestinian prisoners.

Phase two—also six weeks long—calls for the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. The return of all remaining live hostages and the release of more Palestinian prisoners and “the return to a sustainable calm.”

Phase three is the start of the reconstruction of Gaza. The return of the bodies of an estimated 32 dead hostages and the release of more Palestinian prisoners. The US, Egypt and Qatar are all committed to ensuring that both sides comply and that the ceasefire goes well beyond the first few months and becomes the basis of further agreements.

But there are a host of hurdles at which ceasefire could fall. Possibly the biggest is opposition from the Religious Zionist Party led by Finance Minister Ben Smotrich. He has said he would vote against the ceasefire unless there is a clear commitment to resume fighting once all the hostages are released. He said: “Our continued presence in the government depends on the absolute certainty of resuming the war with full force.”

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17 January 2025 – today’s press releases

  • Triple lock: Lib Dems launching new attack ad following Badenoch’s plans to cut the state pension
  • Badenoch’s triple lock comments: Lib Dems launch new poster van attack ad outside CCHQ
  • ONS health data: “sickening” research damning for government’s lack of action
  • McArthur responds to Polmont FAI determination
  • Lib Dems call on new Welsh Conservative Leader to disown Badenoch’s plans to cut state pension

Triple lock: Lib Dems launching new attack ad following Badenoch’s plans to cut the state pension

The Liberal Democrats will be launching a new attack ad following Kemi Badenoch’s comments yesterday that she will consider means testing the triple lock.

The ad will highlight Kemi Badenoch’s three major announcements so far, cutting maternity pay which she described as ‘excessive’, slashing the state pension and putting UK interests at risk by sucking up to Elon Musk and Donald Trump.

A Liberal Democrat source said:

First Kemi Badenoch came for the mothers and now she has set her sights on the grandmothers.

Millions of pensioners felt betrayed by Labour’s cut to the Winter Fuel Payment, now it’s clear their pensions wouldn’t be safe with the Conservatives.

We will be reminding pensioners at every opportunity that Kemi Badenoch wants to take an axe to the triple lock.

Badenoch’s triple lock comments: Lib Dems launch new poster van attack ad outside CCHQ

The Liberal Democrats have today launched a new attack ad with a poster van outside CCHQ after Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch said that she would look at means testing the triple lock.

The Liberal Democrats have said Badenoch’s comments will “send a shiver down the spine of pensioners” and that the Conservatives “want to come after their state pension”.

The poster pictures Kemi Badenoch and an elderly woman with the warning: “don’t let the Conservatives wreck your pension”.

Liberal Democrat Care and Carers spokesperson Alison Bennett MP, who launched the poster van outside CCHQ today, said:

Kemi Badenoch’s comments will have sent a shiver down the spine of millions of pensioners across the country.

Older people have already seen Winter Fuel Payments ripped away by the Labour government and now the Conservatives want to come after their state pension.

The Liberal Democrats are proud we introduced the triple lock to protect people’s pensions. We will fight to protect pensioners from Conservative attempts to scrap it every step of the way.

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ALDC By-Election Report, 16th January

There were two principal council by-elections running this week, both Lib Dem defences in the Western Counties. We successfully defended one and just barely lost out on the other.

In Cotswold DC, Cllr Andrea Pellegram comfortably won the seat over second place Reform in the Chesterton ward. Congratulations to Andrea and the local team for getting almost half of the votes and holding the seat!

Cotswold DC, Chesterton
Liberal Democrat (Andrea Pellegram): 296 (48.1%, -15.8%)
Reform: 152 (24.7%, new)
Conservative: 106 (17.2%, -7.6%)
Labour: 61 (9.9%, new)

In the other election in the Western Counties, Hossein Pirooz placed a close second in the Saltford ward in Bath & North East Somerset Council, only 4 votes behind the independent who gained the seat from us. It was a close but unfortunate result, thank you to Hossein for standing and the local team for all the effort put in, you’ll get them next time.

Bath & North East Somerset Council, Saltford
Independent: 587 (29.8%, +5.4%)
Liberal Democrat (Hossein Pirooz): 583 (29.6%, -10.5%)
Conservative: 375 (19.0%, -1.7%)
Reform: 205 (10.4%, new)
Green Party: 159 (8.1%, +1.4%)
Labour: 60 (3.0%, -5.0%)

For a full summary of these results, and all other principal council by-elections, please refer to the ALDC by-elections page here.

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