Cole-Hamilton: People need change, not endless independence navel gazing

On the weekend that various SNP leadership bids are launched, Scottish Lib Dem Leader Alex Cole-Hamilton set out this party’s priorities for Government.

Two things have cheered him this week. First a poll suggesting that we would double our Holyrood group to 8 if there were a Scottish election today.

The second was unexpectedly finding himself on a list of potential successors to Nicola Sturgeon:

Seriously, I think we are much more lead than the SNP at the moment. I doubt he’ll be thinking the grass is greener.

Anyway, Alex made his remarks about the priorities for the next First Minister at the start of an action day in the Corstorphine/Murrayfield by-election in the heart of his Edinburgh Western constituency. I’m more surprised, to be honest, that organiser Ed and campaign manager Kevin Lang allowed activists to stand still for long enough to listen to him on the weekend before postal votes land. This is what he said:

Nicola Sturgeon’s launched ferries with painted on windows and failed to close the attainment gap in our schools. Drug deaths many times worse than anywhere else in Europe and a stagnant economy are the consequence of years of ministerial disinterest. The delivery rarely lived up to the hype.

I’m challenging the leadership contenders to recognise where timeworn SNP policies have failed to deliver for the NHS, schools, the economy and the efforts to reduce Scotland’s emissions.

I’ve set out positive policies for the would-be candidates today because being open to ideas from the opposition benches is a sign of good government. With three years until the next scheduled Holyrood election, people have the right to see change, not more of the same.

We will work hard to move the debate on from the divisions of the past because people can’t wait for years behind yet more arguments and navel-gazing about independence. All of the good things we want to do can’t play second fiddle any longer. Scotland needs new hope, right now.

When it comes to breaking up the UK, no price is too high and no amount of disruption too painful for the nationalists. Scottish Liberal Democrats will stand up for communities around the country being totally taken for granted by this SNP Government.

He is asking the SNP leadership contenders to do five things:

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Poll highlights need for Lib Dems to develop compelling narrative

A poll of “blue wall” seats this week should make senior Lib Dems charged with delivering our next election campaign pause for thought.

Field work carried out by Redfield and Wilton Strategies last weekend shows Labour 7 points ahead of the Tories in seats the Conservatives currently hold in the south of England, but the party of Government gaining 2% and us going down 2% since the last poll a couple of weeks before.

Of the 42 seats that Redfield and Wilton count as the Blue Wall, there are not that many that we are seriously targeting so our 17% polling figure should not alarm us too much. However, the Tories are fixing their attention and massive resources on defending those seats and will not miss the opportunity to persuade people that these seats are between them and Labour not them and us. We will obviously be countering that where we are strong with local messaging so that people are in no doubt that it’s a two horse race between us and the Conservatives. We’ve been building very strong foundations in those seats over the past few years. However, we don’t want even a few people in the likes of Winchester and Esher and Walton thinking that they should be voting Labour to get rid of the Tories. If they do, then we’ll have Tory MPs, and surely nobody wants the likes of Dominic Raab in Parliament for another five years.

As Lib Dems we know the importance of targeting our resources very carefully. This, however, shouldn’t come completely at the expense of our national poll rating. The national mood music is very important both in our target seats and beyond. We need to be thinking about the political landscape for the next election and the one after that. Only by getting ourselves into more second places can we hope to properly break through. There is no point in winning a handful of seats in 2024 and ending up with the north face of the electoral Eiger to climb everywhere else.

Our national poll rating remains stubbornly low. We haven’t recovered from our coalition lows, except for that brief period when we were actually saying things that excited people in the early part of 2019. Capturing the imagination with a strong message and giving people a reason to vote for us is a good thing and we shouldn’t shy away from it.

We seem to be so terrified of saying anything that might upset the voters in the blue wall that we end up not saying anything at all. And those progressive minded voters who we need to  back us need to hear us talk about the things that matter to them too. And in truth, the things that matter to them matter to us.

I sense a frustration amongst activists in Labour facing areas that the increasingly centralised national Lib Dem campaign machine is not bothered enough with them.

We need to recover our boldness, passion and sense of indignation at what the Tories have done to this country super quick. We need to start using the P word, the S word the B word and the C word to show how the country can be a much better and happier place to live. We need to talk about ending poverty. We need to sympathise with the aims of our public sector workers who are striking for a decent pay rise and less stressful working conditions. We need to be much more robust in talking about the failures of Brexit which are damaging virtually every aspect of our lives. And we need to win the culture wars, not stand cowed as people are marginalised and demonised by the right wing media.

As Liberal Democrats we care deeply and instinctively about inequality and tearing down the barriers that people face that suck opportunity from them. That everyone should have enough food, safe and warm shelter and the resources to participate in life to the full should not be as controversial as the right wing media makes out every day, yet we don’t challenge them enough. We should be riding a coach and horses through the  Conservative narrative which sets people against each other. We want people to have a decent share of the pie, not fight each other for an ever decreasing pile of stale crumbs. So we need to start talking about ending poverty and giving people a fair crack of the whip.

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Is Pakistan heading for a Sri Lankan-style meltdown

Pakistan, meaning the land of the spiritually pure and clean, is, alas effectively skint.

Ten thousand containers sit at ports unless payment is received, industry has no power for production, and an agricultural state is now importing food..if it can afford to.

A macroeconomic meltdown is underway with all the conventional smoke signals: a collapsing economy, rising inflation of 30%, a run on the currency (thus making imports more expensive for locals), depleting reserves (less than the cost of a decent Premier League side …ie shy of $3bn), fuel and now food shortages, with the staple chapati flour in short supply.

Wages arrears threaten food security, health outcomes have worsened with malaria on the rise, education attainment is appalling, and literacy rates are barely over 50%.

Successive failure of policy since independence in 1947 has led to this outcome – IMF bailouts, Arab largesse, US dollars to keep the Taliban at bay, Chinese mercantilism of late –  none of it has stalled the longer-term trend towards a failing state. The risks of a Sri Lankan-style total collapse are now real, even if there is a short-term sugar rush of IMF support and additional Gulf financing.

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Mark Pack: My monthly report to members

We have a chance this May to achieve something we’ve only ever managed twice before in our party’s entire history: make it five rounds of local election net gains in a row.

We should be excited about that possibility. Not only for reasons of psephology but also for reasons of power.

Every gain we make will mean more people benefiting from Liberal Democrats in office, and every gain we make will mean more opportunity to turn our policies into action.

Policies such as the great record in Eastleigh of building new houses – and keeping on winning elections.

To keep our run of local election gains going in May we need two things: candidates and teams to help them. The last time this round of seats were up for election, our calculations show that we missed out on several hundred (yes, hundred) further gains because we didn’t have enough candidates in winnable territory.

Centrally, the party is doing more to publicise the opportunities to be a candidate and to encourage more people to think about i., (The data from these surveys ends up in Lighthouse so it’s available to all local parties.)

But nothing quite beats the in person conversation, the chat over coffee, to help more people realise what a great candidate and councillor they would be. 

That’s particularly important for potential candidates for under-represented groups, who can need that extra encouragement that our party is a welcoming home for them.

Then we need to get our candidates elected, which is where help from people who don’t have local elections in their own area can be so important. Going to help in person or picking up the phone to make some calls makes the difference in close contests.

If you can help with either of these tasks, please do. There’s also a wide range of free training available to help you make the most of these opportunities.

Working together, we can get more Liberal Democrats elected and get more things done such as turning a disused rubbish tip bequeathed by a Conservative-run council into a successful solar farm, helping our planet and generating income to pay for high quality local services.

The paradox at the heart of British politics

Alongside that local picture, there’s a paradox in our national politics we also need to navigate our way through.

The public increasingly views Brexit negatively. The headline figures show a slow but sustained, long-term trend.

Some of this change comes from long-term demographic trends as those joining the adult population are overall much more pro-European than the average. Some of it too comes from people changing their minds – although much of that is a churn to/from don’t know.

In fact, when YouGov recently asked about how people would vote in a new referendum, there was only a net 1.5% of people switching direct all the way from Leave to Remain. Moreover, those increasing pro-European views are also often quite soft. Put simply, the more that the possible conditions of Britain rejoining the EU are mentioned, the further support drops.

Even so, the overall trends are clearly headed in the right direction given our pro-Europeanism. Yet there is a paradox here. Because while public opinion is increasingly negative about Brexit, public opinion is even more strongly of the view that the most important issues to people, their families and to the country are other topics.

Different pollsters ask these questions in different ways, but the pattern of answers is similar. That pattern matters because, as the last general election showed, however much we might wish the election to be about one issue, in a democracy the voters get to choose what an election is about – and they can choose to make it about something else.

Today the most important issues are the economy, cost of living and health services. These affect people directly, now, in very practical and obvious ways.

Many people face big waits for a GP appointment, can’t get on an NHS dentist waiting list, worry about ambulance times if things do go wrong, and millions are stuck on waiting lists.

Overwhelmingly, the public wants to hear those who seek to lead them concentrating on these issues. Talking about other issues instead can feel at best like missing the point and at worst disrespectful to the immediate pressures and worries they face.

The way to show these voters we understand their lives is to talk about the economy, the NHS, practical issues in their area affecting their lives, and the underlying sense of being taken for granted by the Conservatives.

Party Awards: get your nominations in

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Two Lib Dem by-election GAINS

I’m sure we’ll have more details in ALDC’s by-election report later, but the news of two more by-election gains overnight is lovely to wake up to.

First, in Cornwall, we took a seat from the Tories which is always a pleasure.

And then, in St Neots in Cambridgeshire, we took a seat from the St Neots Independents.

Thanks to all the Liberal Democrat candidates who stood yesterday and their teams for all the hard work they have put in and for keeping the Lib Dem flag flying. It is so important that people have the chance to vote for us in every election.

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Plan ahead – rail strikes planned for Spring Conference weekend

The railway workers’ union the RMT has announced a series of strikes planned for March and April.

The dates of the strikes are the 16th, 18th and 30th of March, and the 1st of April.

The first two dates are the Thursday right before conference, and the Saturday of Conference, both of which dates might impact those travelling to conference.

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15-16 February 2023 – two day’s worth of press releases

  • Welsh Lib Dems Respond to Welsh Dental Report
  • Inflation Stats: Hard-working people are paying the price for Conservative incompetence
  • British Gas profits: A betrayal for customers across the country

Welsh Lib Dems Respond to Welsh Dental Report

Responding to the publication of the Health and Social Care Committee report on dentistry in Wales, Welsh Liberal Democrat Leader Jane Dodds MS said:

I welcome the publication of this report and its recommendations. Since being elected I have made securing access to NHS dentistry one of my top priorities and the issue regularly fills my inbox.

NHS dental provision in Wales is not good enough, and this report raises really important questions about the reasons why Labour has allowed a two-tier dental system in Wales to develop, where the rich can go private and everyone else is left languishing on waiting lists.

I am also disappointed to hear that relations between Welsh Government and the dental profession are at a low point when, to deal with both the effects of the pandemic and the longer-term structural problems in NHS dentistry, we need Government and dentists to work together.

Ultimately we need to ensure the resources are in place to fix this problem, including raising spend on dentistry per head to similar levels as Scotland or Northern Ireland as I argued for in the most recent Welsh Government budget debate. By failing to address this issue now Labour is potentially creating a longer-term problem.

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Out now – Spring Conference Agenda and Directory

The agenda and directory for Spring Conference has been published today. The first in-person federal conference since September 2019 takes place from 17-19 March.

You can read all the details of the motions up for debate, fringe meetings, exhibitors and training here.

If you read any of the motions and think, you know what, they’ve missed out this, or we should do this instead, you can submit an amendment with the support of 10 members, or an affiliated organisation like the Young LIberals by 1pm on 6th March.

You can ask the Federal Conference Committee to advise you on how to draft your suggestion by 1pm on 20th February.  That is next Monday. You don’t have to get drafting advice, though, n order to submit an amendment.

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Lee Anderson rejects 48,000 leaflets delivered by Lib Dems

Be careful what you wish for. The controversial deputy chairman of the Tory Party, former Labour MP Lee Anderson took umbrage at a Lib Dem leaflet highlighting his view on the death penalty, food banks, nuisance tenants and the death penalty joked on Twitter that if 48,000 leaflets were dropped off, he would deliver them himself in his constituency. He is trying to lose weight and delivering 48,000 leaflets would certainly help.

In a cunning move, Liberal Democrat peer and councillor for Cleckheaton ward on Kirklees Council Baroness Kath Pinnock duly dropped off 48,000 leaflets at Anderson’s constituency office.

They were rejected by Anderson’s staff who said that political leaflets could not be stored in a constituency office. When asked where the constituency office was, the office staff refused to divulge the information.

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Lib Dems react to Sturgeon resignation

I might disagree with Nicola Sturgeon on many things, but I have long liked her personally.  She is one of the best political communicators we have had, someone who is very good at empathy and emotional connection. Her resignation speech today was dignified, sincere and candid about the pressures she has faced after eight years in the role.

Sturgeon is standing down on her own terms at a time of her choosing. Her work ethic is pretty legendary and she feels that she doesn’t have within her the capacity to continue working at this pace after 8 years in the top job.

Her leadership during the pandemic, described today by Scottish Lib Dem Leader Alex Cole-Hamilton as “a hell of a shift,” was not perfect but had a clarity and compassion that others lacked. Alex said in a BBC interview that today was not a day for throwing political brick bats and paid tribute to the First Minister personally:

The leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats says Scotland faces “many challenges” and he calls on the SNP to “get stability restored” after the first minister steps down.

But today is “not a day for political attacks”, Alex Cole-Hamilton tells BBC News.

Despite having a “combative” relationship with the outgoing first minister, Cole-Hamilton recalls a warm moment between the two when the FM offered him “words of comfort” after his young daughter choked on a coin and had to be resuscitated around five years ago.

Watch here:

Later he added:

Nicola Sturgeon’s talent has undoubtedly shaped Scottish political life and she deserves to be thanked for her public service. Today is not a day for political attacks.  I wish her well for everything that comes next.

It is to Nicola Sturgeon’s credit that she has been open about the pressures and stresses that leadership has involved.  Everyone will recognise how hard it will have been particularly to steer the country during the pandemic and the weight of those decisions.

Scotland needs leadership that will focus on what really matters because every corner of our NHS is in crisis, the cost of living is punishing, islanders still need new ferries and education deserves to be a top priority.

Scottish Liberal Democrats will work hard to move the debate on from the divisions of the past because people can’t wait for years behind yet more arguments about independence. Scotland needs new hope, right now.

Alex is not the only person to have been impressed by her kindness. Back in 2011, she took time out of her day to send me, a random nobody activist in an opposition party, a lovely message of sympathy when our much loved campaigns director Andrew Reeves died.

It is also worth saying while she has recently been attacked on women’s rights, mainly by people who have never done anything for women in their lives, she is a committed feminist who has done a great deal to improve all diversity strands in her own party.  She also – eventually – delivered 30 hours of term-time childcare for 3 and 4 year olds and introduced the Scottish Child Payment which gives £25 per week to families on the lowest incomes.

Here’s what other Lib Dems have been saying about her resignation and we’ll update as more comments come in:

Christine later wrote a very generous column in the Express.

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Aylesbury – the estate that took the crown

The Netflix series “The Crown” Series 4 Episode 5. The camera pans across what appear to be desolate tower blocks and an inner-city, high-rise wasteland with little hope. It’s the home of Michael Fagan, the intruder who so famously gained entry to Buckingham Palace and sat on the Queen’s bed.

In the episode in question the Queen (Olivia Colman) gathers herself after the shock of the appearance of Fagan (Tom Brooke) in her bedroom. She rallies her famous small talk and asks: “and where do you live?” answer: “King’s Cross.” “Is it nice?” “Not really.”

But the setting is not King’s Cross. In fact, the glimpses we see of Fagan’s world are South of the river. It’s the Aylesbury estate in Walworth, Southwark. The Aylesbury, home to Wendover, the longest tower block in Europe and part of Faraday ward, at one time one of the most deprived wards in the UK.

I knew it well as one of the Lib Dem councillors for the estate in the nineties and noughties.

The Aylesbury is the edgy setting for many a TV show. The towers feature on a Madonna video and countless episodes of the Bill. As a young woman I experienced plenty of frightening times on the estate. Walking back from a meeting on Wendover late at night I was followed by two men in a car which sped off once the occupants had had the fun of seeing my terror close up.

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LibLink: Christine Jardine – Sturgeon’s dead cat distracts from multiple failures

In her Scotsman column this week, Christine Jardine highlights 3 major SNP Government failures and suggests Nicola Sturgeon’s publication of her tax returns is merely a dead cat to distract from them.

The first failing is the lack of dualling the main route to the north of Scotland, the A9. It was supposed to be one by 2025 but that is not going to happen and fatalities on this road are going up.

Failure to make the promised improvements will impact the economy as well as the health and well-being of isolated communities with poor access to vital services. But most of all it is a failure to make the main route north safe for all of us. Safety was a major factor in the decision to upgrade a road on which the number of deaths still managed to record a heart-breaking 20-year high in 2022.

Thirteen people lost their lives on the stretch from Inverness to Perth of which approximately 77 miles remain to be dualled and the tender for the latest stretch – Tomatin to Moy – was announced this week to have been delayed. Promised improvements now will have to wait while thousands continue to face the real fear of driving on a road which switches intermittently from dual to single carriage and on which you can meet a tractor or road works at any moment.

And then there is the unbelievable capacity to make a mess of a good idea that is the proposed Deposit Return Scheme. Anyone who wants to sell drinks in bottles, or cans, in Scotland after August is supposed to sign up for the new scheme by the end of this month, but businesses are saying they may not bother because of the additional costs they will incur. This weekend no Scottish Government Minister would appear on the main Sunday morning shows to defend the scheme which has even been criticised by SNP MPs.

On a practical level, retailers are unhappy that the vending machines will cost around £20,000 to install and take up valuable retail space. Producers are also beginning to ask questions, and then there are the problems of different pricing for different parts of the UK. Which raises another not insignificant problem: the Internal Markets Bill.

A leading lawyer this week claimed that Scotland’s Deposit Return Scheme could create an unlawful trade barrier with the rest of the UK where a similar scheme will be introduced in 2025.

Finally, the Government is yet again delaying the full implementation of welfare powers.

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14 February – today’s press releases

  • ONS figures: Families see pay squeezed by Conservative incompetence
  • Two-week cancer diagnosis target missed by half of NHS trusts in every month last year
  • Welsh Lib Dems Comment on Welsh Government Road Review

ONS figures: Families see pay squeezed by Conservative incompetence

Responding to the latest ONS figures showing a 3.1% real-terms fall in pay in October to December 2022, Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesperson Sarah Olney MP said:

This Conservative government has hammered families with soaring mortgages, rising energy bills and huge unfair tax hikes.

Hard-working people are having their pay squeezed thanks to the incompetence of Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt.

A long list

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13 February 2023 – yesterday’s press releases

A technology glitch means that I’m a little further behind than expected. Normal service will resume shortly…

  • Revealed: 12-hour A&E waits quadrupled in most areas of England last year
  • Sewage: Lib Dems bid to block bill which removes clean water regulation
  • Revealed: GP postcode lottery as number of registered patients soars

Revealed: 12-hour A&E waits quadrupled in most areas of England last year

Four in five areas in England saw the number of 12-hour waits at A&E quadruple last year, shocking new analysis by the Liberal Democrats has revealed.

The figures reveal a devastating rise in long delays to be admitted to hospital from A&E right across the country.

In the worst-hit areas, almost one in four patients waited 12 hours or more to be admitted to hospital from A&E.

Previous research has highlighted how long waits to be admitted to hospital at A&E can have devastating consequences including the risks of a patient dying or becoming seriously unwell.

A shocking 91 of 113 NHS hospital trusts in England saw the number of patients waiting over 12 hours more than quadruple in 2022 compared to the previous year. Only four of the trusts saw the number of 12-hour waits fall. The figures are based on data on A&E waiting times from NHS England, which were compiled by the House of Commons Library.

Blackpool Teaching Hospitals Trust was the worst in the country with over 24% of patients waiting at least 12 hours at A&E to be admitted to hospital in 2022. This was followed by North Middlesex where 23% faced waits of 12 hours or more, up ninefold on the previous year. Other hospital trusts with the highest number of patients waiting 12 hours or more include Royal Cornwall (21%), East Cheshire (21%) and Croydon (21%).

Overall, 36 trusts saw at least 10% of patients waiting over 12 hours to be admitted to hospital from A&E in 2022. This compares to not a single trust seeing more than 10% of patients waiting that long the previous year.

The Lib Dems have slammed the government for allowing the “devastating delays”, and called for an urgent plan to tackle staff shortages. The party is calling for a ‘Carer’s Minimum Wage,’ £2 above the minimum wage, to tackle shortages in the social care sector that are contributing to overcrowded hospitals and record delays at A&E.

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11-12 February 2023 – the weekend’s press releases

  • Childcare: Conservatives have turned their backs on families
  • Sharpe report: Boris Johnson must now also face the music to answer questions

Childcare: Conservatives have turned their backs on families

Responding to reports that the Treasury is considering expanding its free childcare offer, Liberal Democrat Education Spokesperson Munira Wilson said:

Parents should never be forced out of work by a lack of affordable childcare. If the Treasury wants to help more parents back to work, it should simply implement the Liberal Democrat plan for childcare that is flexible, affordable and fair.

Crucially, that must include raising the rates paid to providers match the actual

…

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The alternative reality of the political right

Liberal Democrats operate in a world in which we assume that those we talk to and work with are reasonable, open-minded, fair and generous, and share broadly the same assumptions about society that we do. Except, of course, that those in power don’t. To an increasing degree, Conservatives who read the Telegraph, Mail and Spectator, watch Talk TV and GB News, follow research by right-wing think tanks and see US Republicans as their closest political soulmates live in an alternative reality.

Liz Truss is a classic example of this. After her rapid exit from the Prime Ministership, she travelled to Washington, to institutes already well-familiar from previous visits, to regain her intellectual self-confidence. The lengthy essay the Telegraph has since published for her was headlined ‘I was brought down by the Left-wing economic establishment’. That’s the Treasury, the Office for Budget Responsibility, the City of London, the solid ranks of economists in leading universities in the UK and other wealthy countries, even the business journalists of the Times. They’re all part of a left-wing consensus, against which right-wing free marketeers must valiantly struggle, with only the support of hedge-fund and property billionaires to finance their fight.

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“Why would you stand again?”

Bonkers? You have nothing better to do? What’s the point? Don’t you feel that your efforts are worthless? I often wonder whether standing again, literally after being elected 12 months ago, sounds “sane”. It feels like only yesterday I wrote to readers of the Liberal Democrat Voice to introduce myself as a candidate in the May 2022 Local Elections. I wanted to share my story, challenge some of the stereotypes and prove that only the sky’s the limit if we passionately believe in something. This is why I was delighted to get elected and overall, I am enjoying every minute of being able to serve you as your local councillor.

The national and international political landscape is not helping; the war in Ukraine, cost of living crisis, sky-rocketing inflation. Who would have thought that 12 months later, members of the Conservative Party would have selected their third Prime Minister? Has much changed? Not in my opinion. Is this why some many people are fed up with the Government, political status-quo and feel completely disengaged?

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Welcome to my day: 13 February 2023 – time to unfurl our internationalist colours

I’m a believer in an interconnected world, where the United Kingdom builds strong links with its neighbours and across the globe on the basis of mutual interest and cooperation. That means that I’m not a Conservative, as they evidently believe that such links should be purely transactional and, given their sense of entitlement, heavily weighted in our favour. Funnily enough, that doesn’t seem to be working out for them or, more importantly, for the rest of us.

There’s been a good deal of disappointment on this website about the fact that, whilst Liberal Democrats have been vocal about what is wrong with the Government’s approach in addressing the ills of Brexit, the seemingly obvious next step – talking about the advantages of rebuilding some, perhaps all, of the relationship has been very much soft-pedalled.

Does the Party’s private polling suggest that voters have given up on any hope of rejoining the European Union, or perhaps that it isn’t a priority for enough voters yet?

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Age does not give a blue political rinse

There is a long standing aphorism that people become more conservative with age. A well known example that comes to is Winston Churchill. However, the evidence for age giving a blue rinse to voter’s politics has been uneven. New surveys and analyses suggest that while many people may previously have swung to the right in later life, that is possibly no longer the case. People are remaining liberal thinking longer and later in life. This gives hope for progressive parties as the “Thatcher’s children” generation ages and a more liberal cohort advances in age and remains liberal thinking.

This has implications for all parties. The Conservatives have recently swung to the right, playing to the older generation. Leading Tory politicians seem to believe that voters are made in their own image. That folly means they are losing the younger voter.

There is now a challenge for progressive parties, which need to ensure that they retain liberal thinkers into old age. There are signs that is happening.

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Observations of an Expat – Quake Problems

The death toll of Turkey’s earthquake has passed the 20,000 mark. It will soar further as freezing weather and disease sweep through the refugee camps and devastated towns and villages to replace falling rubble as the primary cause of death.

But the earthquake has also created and exacerbated political problems and opportunities whose rippling aftershocks have the potential effect of toppling political as well as physical structures.

The first possible victim is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who is coming under attack for his failure to build sounder structures in the middle of the one of the world’s most dangerous earthquake zones. It should be noted that Erdogan rose to power on the back of Bulent Ecevit’s failures after a 1999 earthquake.

The destruction in southern Turkey came at both the best and worst of times for President Erdogan. His popularity is plummeting amidst economic problems and increasing dissatisfaction with his autocratic rule. There is a real possibility that he could lose the parliamentary and presidential ballot set for 14 May.

But at the same time, the natural disaster has created opportunities for Erdogan. He has declared a three-month state of emergency which will take him right up to Election Day. This will enable him to deploy troops and tighten his stranglehold on the media. Already social media users have been arrested for criticising the government’s earthquake policies.

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Liberator 416 is out

Liberator 416 can be downloaded here (click on the 416 icon). This is the free February-March online-only edition of Liberator and we hope you enjoy reading it.

You can sign up here to be emailed each time a new bi-monthly Liberator comes out. There’s also a free archive back to 2001.

What’s inside this issue?

Alongside Radical Bulletin, Commentary, Letters and Lord Bonkers’ Diary, Liberator 416 includes:

DEMOCRATIC CENTRALISTS

Liberalism used to be about enabling free thought and giving communities a voice. Has a series of centralising measures in the party stifled that creativity and innovation? Gareth Epps investigates

BUSY DOING NOTHING

The Liberal Democrats have ignored two sets of recommendations on race because other equalities issues are more ’popular’. They will therefore go on losing to Labour in urban areas, says Janice Turner

SEEING RED OVER LABOUR

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War in Europe and the role of the UK

The Big Lie of the Russian position regarding the war in Ukraine is that they had no choice than to invade. They did have choices, and furthermore they should see the events of 2014 onwards in Ukraine as a Russian policy failure, rather pleading mere victimhood. The harsh reality is that all deaths in the war were and are avoidable.

This is Step One in the doctrine of ‘know your enemy’. But to go beyond Step One it is necessary to reject the Western Big Lie; that the war was unprovoked. The ‘retail’ position of the UK is that Russia invaded because Putin, and the Russian government, are irrational and mad. This is quite the opposite of ‘know your enemy’, and an attempt to mask the role of US neo-conservatives in Ukraine, especially since 2014. This is the same group of individuals behind the 2003 Iraq war, the extended war in Afghanistan, Western involvement in the Syria, Somalia and Libya conflicts, and other adventures. They all resulted in relatively negative net outcomes for the US, UK and Western Allies.

The UK position for the public domain is however understandable in times of war; to show resolve and maintain public support. The point made is that Russia must be removed from all de-jure Ukrainian territory, President Putin must step down, and all efforts covert and overt, kinetic and cyber must be made to bring this about. Weapon supplies must be stepped up to support the ‘regime change’ doctrine that Russia will eventually be comprehensively defeated. Few might fully realise that this is likely unachievable without nuclear war.

For UK parliamentarians and political parties, the future path of the war may require ‘heads above the parapet’, the absence of which resulted in the Afghan war dragging on for at least 15 years longer than necessary. At least the UK Liberal Democrats objected to the Iraq war project.

However, there are two reasons why the UK position on Ukraine is very difficult for UK parliamentarians.

Posted in Europe / International and Op-eds | Tagged | 41 Comments

Another Daily Mail misogyny fail

I woke up around 6am this morning. After rearranging dogs so that I wasn’t clinging to the edge of the bed, I should have gone back to sleep. Instead I made that error of picking up my phone and looking at Twitter. Ok, so I might have wanted to see what people were saying about last night’s episode of Death in Paradise, but that’s not really an excuse.

What I saw enraged me. A Daily Mail headline asking “Did living in the shadow of his high achieving wife lead to unthinkable tragedy?” This referred to the murder of Epsom College head Emma Pattison and her 7 year old daughter by her husband.

That was bad enough, but then I discovered the previous day’s headline. Apparently the murderer was “desperate to do more with his days” after his business failed.

Suggesting that either of these things is remotely an excuse, particularly in a headline, perpetuates attitudes that have no place in a civilised society.

The media tries to construct a false narrative that women being murdered by their domestic partner  is “isolated” rather than two or three occurrences per week.

 

For as long as men have been abusing and murdering women, their excuses for doing so have carried much more weight in society than they deserve.

Women’s behaviour, clothes, sexual history, earnings, weight, or careers are just some of the things that have been blamed rather than the behaviour of the perpetrator themselves.

I am fed up of the media gaslighting women into believing that they are responsible for the behaviour of abusive men.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged , , , , and | 2 Comments

Tom Arms’ World Review

While a Chinese balloon floated through American skies President Joe Biden stepped up to the podium to deliver his annual State of the Union Address to a joint session of Congress.

The events were notable for two reasons: They exposed an irrational Yellow Peril fear that more than matches the Red Scare of Cold War years and pointed to a possible new era of American isolationism.

Conspicuous by its absence from Biden’s address to the Joint Session of Congress was any mention of foreign policy. With war raging in Ukraine, Turkey and Syria devastated by earthquakes, South America in political turmoil and China expanding, spying and rattling sabres over Taiwan. one would have thought Biden would have focused more on the world situation.

Instead he spoke about domestic concerns. Biden’s success in creating jobs; protecting American industry and controlling inflation. With at least one eye focused on next year’s elections, he is stealing Republican clothes by shifting to a more isolationist stand.

In this respect, the president appears to be following rather than leading US public opinion. The latest polls show a significant drop in American support for the war in Ukraine. China, however, is a different matter. The Chinese spy/weather balloon (probably a bit of both) did secure a passing reference in the president’s speech; probably because of the hysteria it generated among the American public. The fact is that countries spy on each other. The US spies on China. China spies on the US. Russia spies on….

Most of the spying is unseen. Intelligence operatives skulking in the corridors of power or satellites in space. The balloon, however, could be seen as it floated from Alaska, over missile silos in Montana and North Dakota and then finally to the Atlantic where it was shot down by US fighter planes.

The much discussed Asian Pivot was this week back in the news. For a start, American troops are returning in big numbers to the Philippines. The reason? The threat of China and the need to maintain international access to the South China Sea and protect Taiwan.

Posted in Europe / International | Tagged , , , , , and | 8 Comments

10 February 2023 – today’s press releases

  • Economic vandalism leaves Britain on the edge of recession
  • Lack of further energy bill support “heartless” – Davey
  • One in 20 waiting five minutes or more for 999 calls to be answered

Economic vandalism leaves Britain on the edge of recession

Responding to the latest ONS figures which see the UK economy narrowly avoiding recession, Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesperson Sarah Olney MP said:

Britain is dangling on over the edge of a recession after months of economic vandalism and chaos in Government. The blame for these gloomy figures lies squarely with the Government, who have botched budgets, failed to tackle inflation and have no plan for growth.

The Conservative party hasn’t a shred of economic competence left. This Government has hiked taxes to record levels and done nothing to stimulate economic growth. Businesses are now drowning in mountains of red-tape because of failed trade deals which has stifled all hope of an economic recovery after the pandemic. Gross incompetence and mismanagement of the country’s finances has led to this point.

Posted in News | Tagged , , , , and | 7 Comments

Was an obscure set of elections in Mid Suffolk a pointer towards May?

Welcome to Mid Suffolk, a historically Conservative, rural District in the East of England. Liberal Democrats had led a coalition administration until 2003 but, since then, it has been Conservative-led. By the way, don’t take Wikipedia too seriously when it suggests that it was in no overall control between 2005 and 2007 – the Independents around here generally aren’t.

Labour have, over the years, faded into insignificance, having disappeared from the council chamber in 2007 (apart from a lone councillor in Stowmarket North from 2011-15) and only ran eight candidates across the District in 2015. The Greens won their first seat in Mendlesham in 2003 and had slowly built up their strength through classic LibDem-style campaigning to become the official opposition by 2015, albeit with only five of the forty councillors, whilst the Liberal Democrats had fallen away to a clutch of long held wards.

It would be fair to say that the prospects for change in 2019 were not promising, despite boundary changes and a resultant reduction of the number of councillors from forty to thirty-four. Indeed, the political editor of the East Anglian Daily Times, Suffolk’s main newspaper, glossed over Mid Suffolk as being relatively uninteresting.

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Under new management – Federal International Relations Committee report

On Monday 6th of February, the Federal International Relations Committee (FIRC) met for its first formal session of the new year, and of the newly elected committee.

In a two hour meeting which was kept very nearly to time (an almost unheard of state of affairs in Liberal Democrat committees, in my experience), we dealt with a stack of both policy and procedural issues.

We formally approved the continuance of, and received reports from, our sub-committees on China and Ukraine; we also received reports from several other bodies where FIRC has either oversight or coordinating responsibilities, and from the Federal Party’s International …

Posted in Europe / International and Party policy and internal matters | Tagged | 1 Comment

Welcome to my day: 10 February 2023 – we didn’t win in West Lancashire…

I’m standing in for Caron today, so today will be slightly different to a usual Friday…

So, we had the overnight result in the West Lancashire Parliamentary by-election and it wasn’t exactly one of the great Liberal Democrat by-election triumphs…

  • Ashley Dalton (Labour) – 14,068 votes (62.3%, +10.2%)
  • Mike Prendergast (Conservatives) – 5,742 votes (25.4%, -10.9%)
  • Jonathan Kay (Reform UK) – 994 votes (4.4%, +0.1%)
  • Jo Barton (Liberal Democrats) – 918 votes (4.1%, -0.8%)
  • Peter Cranie (Green) – 646 votes (2.9%, +0.5%)
  • Howling Laud Hope (Monster Raving Loony) – 210 votes (0.9%, new)

Firstly, thanks to Jo for flying the flag in a constituency where we are unrepresented …

Posted in News and Parliamentary by-elections | Tagged | 34 Comments

Kira Rudik: The fuel we are living on is hope

Editor’s Note: Updated with video on 12 February. 

Last night the Lib Dem European Group hosted an event with the leader of Ukraine’s Holos Party, Kira Rudik. Holos is one of five parties now in ALDE and was the first liberal party to gain seats in the Ukrainian Parliament.

LDEG have now put the video on their You Tube channel.

If you haven’t got time to watch it now, here are some of the highlights of Kira’s conversation with former Lib Dem President and vice President of ALDE, Sal Brinton. But do go back and watch it when you can.

Kira first appeared at Lib Dem Spring Conference last year, just 18 days after the invasion. She talked then about how she would never have expected to be learning how to fire a rifle and described her 2 hour daily Kalashnikov training as “a hell of a workout.” At that point she was wanting the international community to give Ukraine a chance against the Russian invaders.

Almost a year later, she talked about what life was like in Ukraine. Certainly they had held off the Russians and had even taken ground back off them, but they had lost 50 % of their energy infrastructure.

They can produce enough energy but can’t distribute it. They make sure that critical infrastructure like hospitals have what they need – the rest, she says, they figure it out as the go along. They  have electricity outages which have impact on water supplies and heating. In Ukraine’s freezing Winter, the  priority is heating, then running water then electricity. She said that when you wake up, you check if your phone is charged, if you have heat, it’s 50/50 if you have running water. You need water stored everywhere at home as you may not have it for 2-3 days at a time.

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9 February 2023 – today’s press releases

Unusually, there don’t appear to have been any yesterday, but the Liberal Democrat press team were back in action today. And so, without further ado…

  • Home repossessions rise after Liz Truss budget
  • A&E Stats: Patients are paying the price for Conservative mismanagement
  • Rishi Sunak playing ‘a reckless game’ with CO2 emissions as two more private flights confirmed

Home repossessions rise after Liz Truss budget

  • Mortgage repossessions by court bailiffs double as more people lose their homes in the cost of living crisis
  • Liberal Democrats call for Spring Budget to include help for families at risk of losing their homes

New figures out this morning from the Ministry of Justice show that mortgage claims, orders, warrants and repossessions have all increased in the three months to December 2022, following the Liz Truss mini-budget

Compared to the same quarter in 2021, mortgage possession claims are up 23%. Mortgage orders for possession are up 50%, warrants up 88% and repossessions by county court bailiffs have doubled, up 134%.

Today’s figures are the first since the disastrous Liz Truss mini-budget, which sent interest rates to their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis.

The Liberal Democrats are calling on the Government to include a fund in the Spring Budget to ensure homeowners do not lose their homes as a result of rising mortgage bills.

Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Sarah Olney said:

The consequences of the mortgage ticking bomb set-off by Liz Truss are being felt hard by homeowners. It is shocking that Liz Truss has still refused to apologise for her economic vandalism which has crippled people with mortgage misery

People’s homes are on the line and still the Government refuses to act. Botched budgets and a complete failure to control inflation has led to this point.

Ministers must act now before any more families face the heartbreak of losing their homes.

The capital and South East have been hit hardest by the mortgage timebomb with bills rising by hundreds of pounds a month, yet still the Government refuses to act. Rishi Sunak is nowhere to be found on this. It is time he stepped in and introduced an emergency mortgage protection fund to stop people losing their homes.

Posted in News and Press releases | Tagged , , , , , and | 12 Comments
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