Category Archives: Op-eds

Tactical voting and the Brecon by-election

How did we win the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election? To state the obvious, people changed their vote between 2017 and 2019. Contrary to most of the comment in the press from both Tories and Liberal Democrats, the main reason we won was not because of a remain alliance. The numbers are very clear. We gained 14.3% of the vote between 2017 and 2019.

Where did those votes come from? They certainly didn’t come from the Conservatives. The vote for the ‘pro-Brexit’ parties (CON, BREX and UKIP) stayed remarkably stable: they took exactly 50% of the vote in 2017 and 50.3% …

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Ten freeports by Spring; Boris’s post-Brexit economic miracle

What should the Liberal Democrats do about Boris’s freeports idea? It is alleged that 85,000 jobs will be created.

What is a freeport?

It is a simple idea as old as customs duties themselves. Countries designate an area of land accessible in some way from outside their territory, as outwith their national boundaries for the purposes of customs, taxes and regulations. This means the freeport is a quasi-foreign territory free of all taxes and inspections, even though physically it is inside the host country.

The point is that goods or materials can come into the territory without paying any duties …

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Sugar Tax is nothing more than a money spinning effort

I’ve recently lost a substantial amount of weight. That’s not a humblebrag, it’s going to be relevant, I promise. It’s taken the best part of 20 years to find something that works for me, and I’ll come back to that later. How our society discusses diet and weight was mostly to blame for why it’s taken so long. When I was a teenager, I used to voraciously read women’s magazines while keeping out of the sun during the hottest hours of the day on holiday. Oh, the diet articles in some of those. It was awful. Everything was egg whites and Ryvita. Everything.

And then, imagine, you see something like those Cancer Research adverts. You’ve already seen in the media that a bland diet is something to aspire to, a good way to lose weight, and now you’re seeing that if you’re fat you’ll die. Can you blame a teenager for coming to the conclusion that living longer on miserable food isn’t actually that great a deal? Especially when cheese, chocolate, and chips exist. (Not together, although I did go there on a dare once.)

This is where the recent party proposals on food and drink taxation come in. So, imagine you’re a young adult now, and your understanding of diet is (still) that you can have nice food and be fat or have boring food and be thin. Is a tax going to change your mind about that? Or will you just spend more of your student bursary on that chocolate bar? It’s anecdotal, but that’s how people respond to ‘sin taxes’ more generally. Denmark had a fat tax, and gave up on a proposed sugar tax, because people literally preferred to go to shop in Germany than to pay it. Just process that, for a second: people actively chose to go and shop in a different currency to avoid the kind of tax our party is proposing a consultation on.

In reality, changing the way you eat can’t be done in the short term with nudge policies. Back to what worked for me. It was the concept behind the programme ‘Cook Yourself Thin’. You can eat whatever you like. You don’t have to cut out any food groups. You certainly don’t have own a cupboard full of Ryvita and live on steamed vegetables. What you can do is make lower-calorie substitutions for the things you love. The cookbook’s got a chocolate truffle recipe in it. It even recommends swapping a cookie for Jaffa cakes.

You have to do something which is sustainable for you. Otherwise you simply will not be able to keep it off. Most people put the weight they lose back on again. A sugar tax is nothing more than a money-spinning measure: if you have the spare cash, you’ll still buy it. It won’t make you successfully change the way you live. That’s far more personal and complex than most people like to think. 

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Six key areas for a partnership approach to politics

Since I last wrote about a partnership parliament’ we have won the Brecon by-election and a lot of the talk, quite rightly, has been about the ‘Remain Alliance’ which helped to deliver victory to Jane Dodds. What the by-election has absolutely demonstrated is that politics has become so factionalised that there will not be a Parliament in which one Party will have an absolute majority after the next General Election.

If we are to have a ‘Partnership Parliament’ then perhaps, we ought to consider a partnership approach to the elections which will precede it. In many ways the one is clearly the precursor to another. So, I set out what I think are the key themes on which we should negotiate pre and post-election.

Note that I said themes here. People rarely vote for or against specific policies. They vote for or against beliefs and themes which express themselves by way of high-level principles which they can relate. They then conclude on those themes that such a Party or such a person is the one that most resembles ‘my’ beliefs.

There are two items which are redlines which must be a pre-condition of the Lib Dems working with other Parties.

Firstly, we must revoke Article 50. This is a change from my previous position that we must aim for a referendum in which we would put the case for staying in the EU. Things have now gone too far.

Secondly, there must be an absolute commitment to electoral reform. The impasse in Parliament has largely happened because too many MPs are calculating their individual chances of survival in a haphazard ‘First Past the Post’ system which has failed to deliver a strong government. 

Both of these objectives can be delivered quickly in the kind of short-term Parliament which might exist after the next election. Then a General Election could be held in which the elections took place on the new STV system There are four areas where declarations of intent can be made now for wider discussions but where some things can be done very quickly.

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Why do right wing immigration reformists like Liberal Canada’s points system?

oris Johnson may have hoodwinked a number of European liberal activists by promising to instate a points-based, also known as “merit-based”, immigration system, something for which the Liberal Democrats advocated as recently as Brighton Conference last year.

In 2018, proponents of the immigration motion passed by Conference gave weight to their arguments by comparing the policy to Canada’s, a country generally seen as having a generous approach to migrants’ rights. This much is fair. But we should delve a bit deeper into that policy to understand why it’s suddenly popular with the anti-immigrant Conservative government.

Canada’s points system was established in 1967 by the Liberal government of Lester Pearson, an internationalist to his core. Canada’s previous system was based principally on a migrant’s country of origin and ties to Canada and the Commonwealth. At the time, immigration to Canada was 85% European, mostly from the UK and France. Canada was committed to opening its borders and its culture to place itself on the international stage.

But the nature of the Canadian economy restricted Canada’s otherwise bold immigration reform. Canada is, and was, an export economy, with much of the country’s GDP coming from its energy sector, and most of that coming from oil. With the massive consumer economy of the USA on its doorstep, retaining this status was and is crucial. 

So when I hear UK immigration pundits saying “be like Canada”, I often think of some weaselly post-EU theorists saying “be like Norway”. We’re not an export economy, and unless you’re a Brexiteer fantasist, it seems unlikely that we will be. The world doesn’t have an insatiable appetite for marmite, curiously shaped dogs, and novelty cheeses. Like it or not, we need low-skilled immigrants. We need relatively uneducated immigrants. Moreover, Canada did not (and does not) have a substantial demand for temporary workers. Britain, by contrast, needs large numbers of temporary workers to sustain its agricultural and construction sectors, among others.

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Sunny Uplands and Baloney Economics: whence the falling Pound?

The pound has hit a 2-year low and is the worst performing currency this year and there are still strong headwinds ahead for sterling, particularly if a No Deal Brexit ensues.

The circumstances facing the UK economy and the exchange rate remind me more about country risk scenarios that I faced for dodgy Emerging or Transition Economies, not a developed and mature economy such as the UK. 

All bar our more mature colleagues will have no memory of the dark days of the IMF led bailout of the UK in the 1960s. It’s worth therefore sketching out what the economic-cum-financial risks lie ahead if the “Sunny Uplands” scenario of Prime Minister Johnson starts to take shape, based on his statements and promises since his speech at the doors of 10 Downing Street.

The pound’s value in terms of other currencies is based several factors. Right now, the increasing risk of a “no deal” is scaring away demand for sterling and for sterling assets, thus pushing down the price or exchange rate in terms of other currencies – but the markets sense that there’ll still be a resolution or a further extension.

However, in the event of a “no deal” we will face a genuine currency crisis as investors pile out of sterling assets. These events tend to lead to an initial “overshooting” of the depreciation and we could easily see a further drop of 10, 15 or 20% – nobody really knows. With liberalised exchange rates there’s nothing to really hold back the initial loss of the pound’s value.

Ignoring the immediate hit for UK holiday makers facing a steep rise in the cost of holiday spending, what are the likely consequences for a no Deal as far as the pound is concerned?

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Learn to code: the Technological Revolution

Can I shock you? The North doesn’t end at Manchester and Leeds. For all the bluff and bluster of a ‘northern powerhouse’ we heard when the Tories at least pretended to care, the investment mainly fell around those two main cities. It is true, they are seeing growth, prosperity and attracting young professionals and graduates to the city as businesses prosper and companies choose to open up northern hubs. However, the more rural areas in the North West (particularly West Cumbria) and the North East are seeing their regions stagnate and more alarmingly an exodus of young people who see no future in the area.

According to a recent BBC News study it is estimated that the under 30s population of these regions will significantly reduce over the next 20 years. 3 of the top 5 likely to be worst affected are from West Cumbria, with Copeland anticipated to see a 14% reduction in people under the age of 30. The North East doesn’t fair much better with 4 of the top 10 also from that region, the main county of Northumberland is expected to see the biggest drop of 11%. 

When you look at the common factor in all these regions it is no surprise that former industrial heartlands such as Redcar, Hartlepool and Copeland/Allerdale have a higher rate of youth and adult unemployment resulting in many young people to move away for university and never return. What is most concerning about all this is that there is no real long-term strategy in place to tackle the impending youth deficit, at least not from the two main parties. A reduction in people of working age of this size would also have a significant impact on the local economies of these areas a whole.

As always, the Lib Dems do things differently, and do it better. So why stop now? I propose we look to focus on inspiring investment and increased training for the digital economy, not just by public spending investment but encouraging local and national businesses to increase the number of training schemes and digital apprenticeships in rural areas, particularly those with poorer transport links. If we follow the excellent example set by Recode UK, a free coding training scheme in Bolton which is a joint supported venture by the local JCP and Telecom UK. By championing the private and public sector to educate young people in the tools for the future economy in these regions and help increase social mobility the long term impact will see the wider economy and businesses prosper as well.

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What a brilliant time to be a Liberal Democrat!

So said a very smiley Jo Swinson as she gave an interview to Sky News this morning from the gorgeous town of Builth Wells. I had already decided to write a piece with that title this morning.

There are two things I will never get tired of seeing on news channel banners – Jo Swinson, Leader of the Liberal Democrats and Jane Dodds, MP for Brecon and Radnorshire.

Jane was also interviewed and she said she was going to hunt down Boris Johnson, wherever he may be hiding, and tell him that he has to take no deal off the table. She explained that the Lib Dems were a Remain party and we want to see a People’s Vote with the option to Remain.

I seem to have given myself an authentic by-election experience. I eventually got to bed at about 4:30 and woke up about 8:45 and decided that I wanted to get up to see the celebrations from Brecon. It had to be really early because Jo has to get from Brecon to be on stage with Iain Dale at the Fringe in Edinburgh at 6:00. I will be there too and I’m really looking forward to it. I may need a nap first, though.

Two days ago, it was 36 years since I joined the SDP on my 16th birthday. I can honestly say that the last few months have been amongst the best I’ve had in the party. We are in a place where the long held principles and values of the party are entirely in alignment with the national interest. Not only that, but we’re embracing it with a very clear message. Even John Curtice was saying positive things about us on BBC News, saying that nobody would have expected us to win Brecon and Radnorshire a few months ago.

We have three leaders across the country who are spirited, likeable and brilliant at delivering that message with confidence. Two are relatively new and all are now in Parliament. It’s been a real struggle for the Welsh Party to get the coverage while their leader didn’t hold elected office, but Jane is now in a much stronger position – and when she does get media, she’s really, really good at it.

Jo has only been UK leader for 11 days, but already she has been all over the media. And she showed her different style of leadership by getting out there and knocking up with Jane yesterday. Party leaders don’t often do that, but it’s very much her style to be in the thick of the action at these vital moments.

Willie Rennie has led us through some very dark times in Scotland. It’s largely down to the force of his personality, propensity for the most exuberant photo opps (as well as his affinity with farm animals) that we have managed to pull ourselves back up. We went into the 2016 election worried that we might end up with no MSPs at all and ended up winning constituency seats from the SNP.

This all compares very well to every other party. The Tories are a mess, although, like the Republicans with Trump, they seem to have been temporarily cowed by Boris. How long that truce will last as he drives the country to a no deal disaster is anybody’s guess. Not long would be my take. Whether Labour is capable of learning the very obvious lesson that its fence-sitting on Brexit is not doing it any good remains to be seen. But it’s not easy when you have a Brexiteer as leader of a party that wants to Remain.

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Good luck to Jane Dodds in Brecon and Radnorshire – and how YOU can help her win

As Paul and Kirsten have have already written, today voters in Brecon and Radnorshire choose a new MP.

https://twitter.com/DrKirstenJ/status/1156494919353163776?s=20

It would send a huge message to Boris Johnson that people don’t want his cavalier and irresponsible pursuit of the most disastrous option to his country if Jane Dodds were returned as MP.

And, more importantly, it would reduce his parliamentary majority to just one, reducing his scope for harm.

But it’s not just about that. Jane is brilliant. She’s wise and kind and is on a massive mission to fight for rural communities, to eradicate poverty and loneliness. If you need convincing, watch my chat with her here as we had a cup of tea in Llandrindod a couple of weeks ago.

Liberal Democrats from all over the country have been to this stunningly gorgeous part of the world to help Jane win over the past few weeks. The LDV team has notched up about 18 days between us.

Jane has made a final pitch for votes in Politics Home, saying that she would give the rural communities of the constituency their voice back.

Even the most basic of services – taken for granted in more urban areas – are more like luxuries here. Many villages are lucky if they’re served by a bus at all, let alone a service of any useful frequency. The words “fibre optic broadband” are a distant dream to the farming families who are lucky to get anything faster than dial-up. Patients’ hopes of timely medical treatment are dashed the moment the English hospital finds out they have a Welsh postcode.

The people of Brecon and Radnorshire deserve better than this. And as their next MP, I will demand better.

I was born and brought up in Wrexham in a Welsh speaking family. My mother instilled in me from a young age the importance of giving back to your community and making a positive difference to other people’s lives.

I graduated from Cardiff University and trained in social work, and 27 years later I’m still working as a child protection social worker, having worked with vulnerable children both at home and abroad. I hope I made a difference to the families I worked with. But what drove me into politics was realising that to achieve real social justice, you need to change the system.

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On editing Lib Dem Voice

I have enjoyed being back in the editor’s chair today. My role on LDV these days is to provide cover when members of the team are away, unwell, or, as today, busy fighting by-elections.

I have been dealing with around eight submissions, some of which were more fully formed than others. Plus a few of those bizarre emails offering us guest posts on subjects ranging from setting up powers of attorney to tyre maintenance for car fleets.

But one thing struck me quite forcibly: ignoring the SEO chancers – not one of those eight submissions was put forward by a woman. In fact, of the 20 posts published so far this week only three had female authors, and two of those were written by our editor in chief, Caron Lindsay. A similar pattern emerges for the whole of the last month – and I have rather lost the will to trawl back further in time.

So what is going on?

Of course, I can’t pretend that there ever was a golden age when half our posts were penned by women, but I can certainly remember a higher proportion than we have now.

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Push the Guardian!

The Guardian is much too partial to Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour party. It has no “known” regular Liberal contributor but it has completely partisan Labour columnists, such as Owen Jones and Polly Toynbee. I do what I can by way of letters but more of us need to put pressure on the paper.

Last week the paper carried a completely one-sided diatribe on the Liberal Democrat role in the 2010 Coalition government. I immediately sent a letter in reply. A number of letters were published, some vaguely supportive of Liberal Democrats but there was no full rebuttal.

Liberal Democrat Voice readers should see, and, I hope, feel able to use the material in my unpublished letter, herewith:

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Be careful what you wish for

Lib Dem Voice is currently full of excited speculation about the timing and possibilities of an election. It is worth standing back a little.

Who else really secretly wants an election? Certainly not Labour – it is difficult to think of an opposition in a less credible state. But Boris Johnson does. By tacking to the hard right he can destroy the Brexit party while the collapse of Labour means he has nothing to fear from that direction. His only care is a working parliamentary majority. He could not care less whether the Liberal Democrats get 50 seats or 150 provided …

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The road to redemption – a Lib Dem manifesto

With a new leader comes a new beginning.  Here are some thoughts.  Liberal Democrats need to make a more positive case for staying in the European Union and address the fears of those who backed Brexit.  We should argue for a real end to “austerity” which involves being honest about the government borrowing more and taxing more.  We need to make the polluters pay for the damage they are causing to the environment. And we should re-invigorate local government, and local services, by returning to a realistic level of council tax.

Yes, some of these suggestions will be unpopular but it is better to be unpopular and right than to be popular and wrong.  Let’s just be brave. We were brave over a second EU referendum and now it’s a widely held position and may even come to pass.

On Brexit, we should be trying to bring the country together again after the shambles of the last three years.  Immigration is clearly a worry for many English cities.  European regulation is resented by many businesses.  Some European court rulings are hard to take.  People fear a Federation of Europe dominated by a corrupt elite.  We need to address these concerns by saying: of course Europe is not perfect but we can reform it from within. There are other countries in Europe who feel the same way.

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Lord William Wallace writes….Money, money, money

Liberal Democrats achieve remarkable successes on the foundation of determined campaigning, enthusiasm, and passionate promotion of liberal values.  But money also matters.  And shortage of money, compared to Labour and (above all) the Conservatives, is one of the major obstacles to a political breakthrough.

Last year our federal party raised £6.2m, and spent £6.5m.  That meant some painful cuts in staffing, as well as missed opportunities in media projection, campaigning, and organisation.  Those who complain in commenting on Lib Dem Voice postings that our media team are failing to make the most of our rise in the polls do not know how small our media team is at present, and how wonderfully effective they are for their size.  We could do with a larger leader’s office, a larger policy development team, and a much larger team of regional and field organisers to help and support local activists in their campaigns.  But all that requires money.

Press reports on problems within the Labour Party’s headquarters have noted that Labour has over 400 HQ staff.  Lib Dems currently have 60, working flat out to support the party throughout the country, to service our members, and not least to make sure that we fulfil all our legal obligations as a regulated political organisation.  

Labour had significantly expanded its paid staff between 2016 and 2018, and also doubled the size of its leader’s office – partly on the back of the impressive surge in party membership, which (as reported to the Electoral Commission ) brought in £26m in fees in 2017.  This was still, however, less than a third of its total income.  Fundraising and donations, most importantly from trade unions, brought in £25m, public support for its role as a major opposition party (‘Short’ and ‘Cranborne’ money) brought in £8.5m, and conferences and other events contributed most of the rest.  The slump in Labour’s membership in 2018-19, together with a decline in donations, has now left the party with a widening gap between increased spending and declining income.

The Conservatives are more like a centralised campaigning organisation than a membership-based party.  They declared an income from membership subscriptions in 2017 of only £835,000: that’s a little more than £6 per member on their estimated membership.  They received more in legacies than that.  But the bulk of their income comes from major donors: a total of £30m in donations in 2017, much of it in five- or six-figure sums from a few hundred individuals.  J. C. Bamford, the excavator company chaired by Lord Bamford, is one of its largest donors, giving £1.5m in the three months before the 2017 election.  Labour analysis shows that a high proportion of major Conservative donors are hedge fund managers; others include wealthy Russians, and Middle Eastern millionaires, with homes in London.  EC figures show that the Conservatives received £7.5m between October and December 2018 from 230 donors: more than our entire income last year.

The Brexit Party is a limited company controlled by Nigel Farage.  It reports £2.75m in online donations (each below £500, thus not reportable to the EC) through PayPal in the first half of 2019, as well as several larger donations – including £200,000 from Jeremy Hosking, a City financier who finances a number of right-wing causes.  The Financial Times on July 26th reported that Farage  has just launched ‘World4Brexit’ at an event in New York, attended by leading figures on the hard right of US politics (Peter Thiel, the CEO of PayPal, is a supporter).  Farage is already attacking the Electoral Commission for querying his fund-raising methods, claiming ‘an Establishment stitch-up.’

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If we have a snap election, I have a couple of requests…

If we Fight a Snap Election, I have a Couple of Requests…

With the new Prime Minister having taken residence in No. 10, without the majority in Parliament to carry out his controversial Brexit policies, and possibly not even the majority to survive a confidence vote, there is an increasing chance of a General Election this Autumn.

Should this happen, I would like to request the following of our campaign:

  1. No “Vote for us to have another vote!!”
  2. “Stop Brexit” should only start a sentence, not end it.

No “Vote for us to have another vote!!”

Shortly after the 2016 referendum we adopted the policy to promote a referendum on the final Brexit deal. This was the perfect policy to have as a parliamentary opposition group but would it work as a GE policy?

What deal would we be having a vote on? Theresa May’s deal that has been so universally rejected that she stood down as PM? Would we negotiate a new deal with the EU just so we could ask the public to vote it down in a referendum?

Why have another vote at all? We’re a parliamentary democracy after all. If our MPs are elected on a promise to “Stop Brexit”, surely that gives us a mandate to revoke article 50, put an end to Brexit and move on to other pressing issues like health, education and the environment?

I’d like us to declare that Conservative attempts to deliver Brexit have failed. After three years of neglecting our Country and its problems, the deal they ultimately wrangled is so bad that they themselves rejected it. Time to Stop Brexit so we can get back to dealing with the issues that matter to people!

“Stop Brexit” should only start a sentence, not end it.

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Brecon diary – a gorgeous holiday with delivery thrown in

Talgarth, Powys – What’s not to like?

I arrived at Brecon this morning. After parking, I wondered round to find the Lib Dem HQ (the whereabouts of which I vaguely remembered from my visit back in June).

As I was walking down the street, I was aware of a hubbub. There was the sound of people talking and generally great activity coming out of one shop front.

Well blow me down! It was the Lib Dem office in full swing as volunteers arrived to be given their marching orders.

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Swinson Surge: Could Jo Swinson be our next Prime Minister?

The political news coverage over the last few weeks has been predominantly dominated by an utterly childish leadership contest in the Conservative Party, in which 0.138% of the population voted for this current sitting Prime Minister.

In this volatile political climate, and with thousands of people joining the Liberal Democrats in the last week, it has become clear that the country is crying out for a liberal alternative. We are at a crossroads in British politics where we are faced with the choice between a populist right led by the likes of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, and no credible …

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The shift to the extremes gives the Liberal Democrats a perfect chance

Anyone who spectated upon Boris Johnson’s Cabinet reshuffle last Wednesday would have got the message: Britain is on a fast track to the far-right. Priti Patel, who has previously backed the return of capital punishment, is now in charge of the Home Office, overseeing crime policy and immigration. Dominic Raab, who abandoned his responsibility as Brexit Secretary to pursue his own leadership ambitions, is the new Foreign Secretary, where his views of feminists as obnoxious bigots will be represented on the world stage. Whilst Theresa May attempted to bring her depleted party together in her Cabinet, Boris Johnson has wiped …

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Preparing for a Partnership Parliament

We now need to prepare for what is almost certain to be a Parliament with no one-Party majority, following a General Election in the next few months. In local government we have a lot of experience in dealing with this sort of situation.

Currently in England alone we are involved in Government in more than 70 Councils. In some we have overall control and at the other extreme in others we have passively let another Party take minority control on the basis of some assurances.
There seem, however, to be five things which make arrangements work:

1. A clear manifesto from the Lib …

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Finding my voice…

“Brexit is the will of the people. We need to get on with it”

Whoever “the people” were they certainly didn’t include me. Brexit wasn’t my will, I didn’t want to get on with it. There was nothing in “the will of the people” that acknowledged the people who voted remain: presumably we’d all mass-converted to the cause of Brexit.

Nevertheless I maintained my stance of Remain but was frustrated by the response:

“You’re anti-democratic”
“You lost. Accept it.”
“Remember it’s the will of the people”

I circled round and round the same arguments, finding few people who felt Brexit should be challenged. Seeing gulfs emerging …

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A playlist fit for a new leader

Those of us watching the announcement of our new leader last Monday were treated to an excellent playlist while we were waiting for the result to be declared.

Listen here and watch Jo’s fantastic acceptance speech.

The long delay, was, I understand, the wifi in the venue not being quite up to the job of giving us the result instantaneously at the touch of a button. But we got there in the end. And we got to listen to some really good tunes while we waited nervously.

At one point, my son actually came through and said “Why are YOU listening to such cool music?” To be fair, I don’t listen to music that often. I’m mostly into podcasts or Radio 4. However, when I do, my son has to endure my random collection of trash and musical theatre.

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Jo Swinson gives Jeremy Corbyn a lesson in opposing a terrible Government

Jo Swinson has had a very effective first six days as Lib Dem Leader. She’s been popping up all over the media and the fact that both Labour and SNP supporters alike have gone for her big time shows that they know she is a massive threat to them.

This morning, viewers of Sophy Ridge on Sunday will have seen Jeremy Corbyn offer his usual tired and hand-wringing approach to Brexit and his less than robust approach to anti-semitism in his party.

Immediately afterwards, they had Jo on. She was clear, engaging and she answered the questions put to her.

Here are some of the highlights:

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The Great Hack: What we should take away

If you have  a Netflix account it’s likely you’ve already seen The Great Hack.  This near two hour documentary  details the Cambridge Analytica scandal and examines the wider issue of our rights to our data. For many Liberal Democrat campaigners and Pro-EU activists who have kept up with this whole scandal, what the documentary revels is not new  but it leaves us with a cause that should be a natural rally for the Liberal Democrats.  It creates a foundation for meaningful policy regarding the giants of Silicon Valley and how our democracy and use of social media can work in harmony with each other. 

The Great Hack hints towards a potential path for the party which links our belief in economic liberalism and property rights along with our belief in privacy and personal freedom. Currently the data which we willingly leak onto social media is just skin deep for the user but behind the curtain this data is valuable information for advertisers and campaigners to ensure that the ‘right’ advertisement on visible on your Facebook or Twitter news feed. Globally this can range from the harmless like a good deal for a tent on Amazon to horrific and extreme cases where military personal in Myanmar manipulated users  using Facebook to facilitate genocide towards the Rohingya people.

Every day in the UK we see thousands  drawn into arguments online  and very little room is left for compromise or compassion. To paraphrase Carol Cadwalladr, in an effort to connect people, these social media moguls have instead facilitated on driving us apart. This has allowed for a sense of invincibility of consequence to our words and a thin layer of anonymity where we dehumanise to an extent those we disagree with and pander to those we do. It is vital that the Liberal Democrats start to lead the charge on how we should be thinking of social media differently as this is now here to stay and will be (already is in some cases) a central part of our lives.

 To start we need to explore the idea of breaking down Facebook’s monopoly of social media as Sir Vince Cable has mentioned in the past. Even though since the Cambridge Analytica scandal broke Facebook’s users took a very minor hit, those same users appeared to just simply switch to Instagram which is also owned by Facebook. Secondly we must be fighting now for a major review of our electoral law and its relation to social media especially after the Culture Committee expressed the current laws are not ‘fit for purpose’.

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Referendums: Getting it right next time

No one needs any help demonstrating the problems with the current ad–hoc manner in which the UK conducts referendums.

But while it might be tempting to argue that the best solution is simply to stop having them, there are problems with that approach. 

First, I’m not at all sure it is politically sensible, or intellectually honest, to say that since lies, fraud, and gross misconduct constituted the bulk of the Brexit campaign the solution is simply to have no more referendums. There have been lies, fraud, and misconduct in political campaigns since electoral politics began. The solution has always been to find better ways to conduct the campaigns, not to scrap the practice.

The Liberal Democrats are a party fundamentally committed to opening up political discourse, and to doing so responsibly. Referendums are fraught with peril and, ironically, run the risk of being distinctly undemocratic, but that does not mean there cannot be a role for them as part of a broader expansion of legitimate political expression.

And as recent votes in Ireland have shown, to take one example, referendums can play a crucial role in securing progressive social gains.

As another example, here in Massachusetts, where I now live, voters last November defeated by an overwhelming majority an attempt by fundamentalist Christian groups to repeal a law designed to protect transgender people by allowing them to use the restroom of their choice in any building open to the public.

By permitting the question and conducting the referendum, voters had the opportunity to affirm the actions of their legislature and governor and stop in its tracks the type of hate and fear that festers when it can pretend to a legitimacy it does not possess.

Wary of referendums as I am, I’m not proposing a radical overhaul of the UK political system to allow for the types of confirmatory votes we hold here in Massachusetts, where we can also vote by referendum to instruct the legislature to introduce legislation.

Massachusetts, incidentally, makes it much harder to initiate a referendum question than do many U.S. states and, in many cases, and wisely so as the government problems caused in referendum-happy states such as California help demonstrate.

Referendums shouldn’t happen often.

They should only happen with good reason.

But there are times when they might well be appropriate.

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We Lib Dems need to oppose austerity

The Liberal Democrats are the party of David Lloyd George, John Maynard Keynes and William Beveridge. We are the party that laid the foundations of the welfare state and pioneered support for Keynesian economics, which strived to create an economy of public investment in infrastructure, growth and full employment. Our party’s history is one which is staunchly against ‘slash and burn’ austerity.

Of course, during the Coalition Government, the party’s leadership supported the austerity programme of David Cameron and George Osborne. This continues to be used against us by supporters of other progressive parties, not least Labour, despite the fact that Labour also supported austerity. I hope no-one joined the Liberal Democrats to introduce the ‘bedroom tax’, support the benefits cap, cut legal aid, cut housing benefit to young people, introduce assessments for disability benefits or to support benefit sanctions. It is not a nice thought, but whether you think Coalition austerity was right or not, it has ruined people’s lives and led to thousands of preventable deaths.

Coalition austerity was not compatible with the liberalism of Lloyd George, Keynes or Beveridge and many Lib Dems opposed austerity during the Coalition Government. Since the Coalition, the party has clearly begun to move away from austerity. This began in 2015, when the Liberal Democrats opposed the Conservatives’ Welfare Bill, while Labour abstained. In the general election of 2017, our party was committed to reversing more welfare cuts than even Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party. 

At our Autumn Conference last year, the ‘Demand Better’ policy motion committed the party to ‘a better society, in which everyone is supported in times of need, with an end to austerity’. Those three words, ‘end to austerity’, are absolutely essential if we are to win over more Remain voters, most of which vote for progressive parties. They are as important as the other two words for which our party is known for, ‘Stop Brexit’. Indeed, austerity has helped to fuel the rise of Brexit populism and therefore if we want to stop Brexit, we must end austerity.

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“Is he all talk and no trousers?” Jo’s first question to PM Boris

Jo Swinson had her first chance to question Boris Johnson today, as he made his first statement as Prime Minister.

Here’s the full exchange from Hansard:

The 3 million EU citizens are our family, our friends, our neighbours, our carers, yet for three years they have been made to feel unwelcome in our country. They deserve better than warm words and more months of anxiety. They deserve certainty, now. The Prime Minister has made assurances, so will he back the Bill of my Lib Dem colleague Lord Oates, which would guarantee in law the rights of EU citizens? Or is he all talk and no trousers?

The answer pretty much confirmed that that was indeed the case.

The Prime Minister
I congratulate the hon. Lady on her own election and join her in insisting on the vital importance of guaranteeing the rights and protections of the 3.2 million who have lived and worked among us for so long. Of course, we are insisting that their rights are guaranteed in law. I am pleased to say that under our settlement scheme some 1 million have already signed up to enshrine their rights.

Jonny Oates explained earlier this month why his Bill was much better than settled status.

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A peek into Jane Dodds’ Llandrindod Wells office

This time last week, I was delivering leaflets in Llandrindod Wells. I would love to go back, but family circumstances make it impossible before the by-election next Thursday.

So, it would be really great if someone would go in my place. Or even if lots of people went in my place. They really need to talk to as many people as possible. The little conversations you have with people can answer their questions and move them from potentially not voting or voting for someone else, to voting for Jane. And Jane is definitely worth voting for.

I want to see someone with her wisdom and kindness on our benches. She is so committed to tackling poverty, inequality and loneliness – as well as getting better health and transport services and better connectivity in this huge and gorgeous rural constituency. Catch up with the chat I had with her here.

If you do head to Brecon you will meet some lovely people. Here is the team at work in the Llandrindod Wells office last Sunday..

Every time the shelves look like they are getting empty, they fill up again.

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Sal Brinton writes…Tell us who you think deserves Party Awards

Do you know someone special who deserves to be recognised by the party?

Yes, it’s party awards time!

Every year at Autumn Conference we hand out prestigious party awards to members who have done some of the most outstanding work in the party. Going above and beyond the call of duty time and time again.

But, as always, we need you to nominate the people that you think are blazing the way in the party.

The deadline for nominations has been extended to 31 July and the nomination form and submission details are on the party website 

There are four awards announced by me as President.

The President’s Award is open to any party member elected to public office and who has demonstrated excellence and commitment over the years.

The Harriet Smith Liberal Democrat Distinguished Service Award is open to any member never elected to public office who has demonstrated longstanding and outstanding service to the party.

For both these awards, the panel will be looking for outstanding commitment and service to the party. We are seeking people who deserve recognition for their hard work, long service & demonstrable dedication to the party at any level.

The Belinda Eyre-Brooks Award is given to recognise and celebrate the efforts of people who work for our elected representatives in their local areas – from local party employees, to political assistants to council groups, to people working in MPs’ constituency offices.

The Dadabhai Naoroji Award is presented to the local party that has done most to promote BAME participants to elected office as councillors, Assembly Members, MPs, MSPs or MEPs. Please note – this award is to a local party, not to an individual, so please think about those local parties that are making a great effort to involve different communities in their work. Regions and State Parties nominate local parties, so tell them about a local party that should be nominated.

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Coalition? Who cares?

coalSo the Lib Dem leader election is over and predictably Labour have gone full on coalition grievance mongering in response. They’d have done this whoever won, no doubt somewhere in Labour HQ there is an unused “This is what Ed doesn’t want you to know” video.

It seems to have fallen a bit flat, which is a good sign that people are reacting less viscerally but that doesn’t mean all is fine, it just means people are prepared to think about it.

People are listening to us again. 

The coalition and austerity will come up and we need to be able to address it. To be fair, we owe it to the public and ourselves to address it.

It’s unarguable that austerity happened whilst we were in coalition. Cuts were made and these cuts made people’s lives harder. It’s legitimate to care about that, irrespective of the reasons behind our decisions.

Every time I’ve heard Lib Dems address this I feel we still haven’t found a way of talking about it that recognises this legitimacy and can start rebuilding bridges.

When someone raises austerity we react as if they are asking us why we supported the policies of austerity. We talk about the economic climate, we talk about the lack of options, we talk about the fact we were in coalition and had to compromise, or maybe about how every party intended to make cuts.

Sometimes we make these points well, sometimes not so well but the real problem is we are addressing it from the wrong perspective. 

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No deal Brexit preparations: Dutch look closely but don’t see much (Part 1)

Whoever looks at British-Dutch relations, especially in trade and food (herring), you see a relationship dating back to the Roman Empire, with the Frisians (a tribe in the North of the present Netherlands) kicking off the chain of English/British-Dutch relationships. 

The modern relations can be traced back to the British-Dutch anti-Spanish alliance of queen Elizabeth I (sending over her confidant Leicester) in the Treaty of Nonsuch (1585; see Jonathan Israel’s book about the Dutch Republic; Clarendon/Oxford University Press; Oxford, 1995, p. 218-230). This treaty was implicit recognition of the Republic; and the shenanigans between Leicester and the Dutch stadholder and his minister Oldebarnevelt in 1585-87 gave definite form to the Republic, until then a confederation of rebel provinces. It ended up with Leicester returning home; but Nonsuch was reinforced and broadened in the 1598 Treaty of Westminster.

The Low Countries’ principalities trading with England (Flanders, Zeeland, Holland, Friesland) were all smaller than England, and this didn’t change with seven rebel provinces forming a republic; especially because shortly afterwards, under king James I, the union between England and Scotland started being formalized until the Acts of Union (1707). So the Dutch and Flemish peoples are used to look very closely what happens in their big neighbor  the UK, especially as it affects our (Dutch) trade relations (re-exporting a large part to the rest of the EU), and our and their national economy. The UK is around three to four times bigger than the Netherlands if you look at our populations and economies (GDP).

The hard Brexiteers around Boris Johnson are emphasising, now that a No Deal Brexit on their holy grail date of 31st  October seems ever more likely, that the British government is even better prepared than under the March Brexit deadline. 

We Dutch simply don’t believe them, because we see at best a piecemeal, halfhearted if not comically incompetent British preparation (hiring a shipping company without ships, aiming to disembark at a British port city that on BBC TV News does look more disheveled that well-prepared for intensive disembarkation operations).

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