Category Archives: Op-eds

Daniel Stylianou

The continuing threat to democracies

By Daniel Stylianou | Sun 14th May 2023 - 12:00 pm

I wrote an article earlier this week about the hope for renewed democracy in Turkey should the opposition leader – Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu – be successful in the upcoming Presidential elections. But democracy continues to come under threat across the globe, as more countries seem to be sliding down the steep path to dictatorship and the abolition of civil liberties and human rights.

Human Rights Watch has today published an article focusing on the state of affairs in Tunisia. The authorities have placed a further 17 current or former members of Ennahda, the largest opposition party in the country, in prison. That means that, as of today, over 30 political figures who are critical of President Kais Saied are behind bars accused of “conspiring against state security”. According to Human Rights Watch, the detainees include former ministers, the party President, two vice presidents and the former Speaker of Parliament. The Tunisian authorities have simultaneously shut Ennahda’s offices across the country.

In Myanmar, the military has used a “thermobaric” munition – designed to cause the maximum amount of casualties – on the village of Pa Zi Gyi in response to an opposition-controlled administrative office being opened. The blast was followed by helicopter assaults using cannons, grenades and rockets as innocent civilians tried to flee. A resident confirmed that the anti-junta People’s Defence Forces was present at the opening, but that the office was for tax filing, town meetings and judicial events, not for military purposes.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 14th May 2023 - 8:55 am

Pakistan

Pakistan is a nuclear power with an estimated 165 nuclear warheads and bombers and missiles to deliver them. This is important to remember as the country slides into political, economic and social chaos. Also remember that Pashtos are the second largest ethnic group in Pakistan (18 percent) and the largest (42 percent) in neighbouring Islamic fundamentalist Afghanistan.

Mustn’t forget either that Pakistan’s Pashto community are supporters of the Taliban and that Al Qaeeda and ISIS are re-establishing bases in that benighted and dangerously unstable Afghanistan. Then there is also the fact there have been 434 terrorist attacks in Pakistan this year, the majority by Islamic fundamentalists with links to groups based in on the western side of the Hindu Kush.

Another concern is that China holds 30 percent of Pakistan’s $100 billion debt. The country’s foreign reserves have virtually disappeared to pay for oil imports. General inflation is running at 34 percent and food prices are soaring at an estimated 50 percent.

Finally, Pakistan’s army and intelligence community pull the country’s political strings. Politicians cannot stay in office without their support. Which is big part of Imran Khan’s problems.

He had the military’s support when he became prime minister in 2018 at the head of a coalition. But the former international cricket star was the wrong person to head a coalition. Khan is used to giving orders rather than compromising, and was soon publicly attacking his coalition partners. But the final straw came when he began toying with the idea of curbing the power of the military.

Last April, Khan lost a parliamentary vote of no confidence. He rejected it and has refused to resign. In response the succeeding government has charged him with more than 100 offenses ranging from fraud to blasphemy. It should be said that this is standard political practice in Pakistan. The successor prime minister to Khan – Shehbaz Shaif – was released on bail for corruption charges to enable him to lead the government.

The 232 million Pakistanis have meanwhile split between pro and anti-Imran Khan Factions with the military leading the anti-faction. Riots and demonstrations have become a daily feature of life in Pakistan.

Ukraine

The much anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive remains much anticipated. The promised 230 Western tanks have arrived as well as 1,500 armoured vehicles. An estimated 60,000 Ukrainian troops appear to be ready to attack. The assault could literally be launched any day.

The most likely battle site is in the south around Kherson. A strike there could sever the land bridge between the Russian forces in Crimea and the Donbas Region.  The problem with that plan is that the Russians have constructed one of the most elaborate defensive systems ever seen. The Ukrainians could end up hurling themselves against a 160 mile long Russian brick wall off trenches, mines, anti-tank traps and razor wire.

They could suffer the same fate that has befallen the Russian Wagner Group in their months’ long attempt to capture Bakhmut. Russians casualties in Bakhmut are estimated by Western intelligence to be as high 60,000 with 20,000 of them being fatal. The town has been reduced to an unrecognisable pile of rubble.

Wagner head Yevgeny Prigorzhin blames the failure of his prison-recruited force on the official military’s refusal to provide his convicts with enough ammunition. He has even released an expletive-laden diatribe attacking Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the head of the armed forces, Valery Gerasimov.

Prigorzhin is probably right. The Russians are reported to be low on ammunition and the official military establishment wants to husband its resources for the coming Ukrainian counter offensive. But the row between the Wagner Group exposes a deep division and absence of a clear command structure within the Russian military establishment. This can only benefit the Ukrainians when they finally launch their much anticipated assault.

Northern Ireland

There was really nothing new in the substance of Biden’s remarks this week about Northern Ireland. What was new and unfortunate was the language he used.

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Caron Lindsay

Want to know who Ed Davey would snog, marry and avoid?

By Caron Lindsay | Sat 13th May 2023 - 11:55 am

Ed Davey is heading to Edinburgh on Saturday 12th August to take part in the For the Many Podcast with Iain Dale and former Labour Home Secretary Jacqui Smith. Tickets, which cost £17, are selling fast, so don’t miss your chance by snapping them up here.

I hope he knows what he is letting himself in for as these shows can be quite the wild ride with a generous helping of smut and comedy alongside the politics. There’s usually a bit of snog, marry, avoid and in the most recent live show, outgoing Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price was asked which politicians he would like to see on Naked Attraction. There are some questions to which “none” is the only acceptable answer. To be fair, the live shows are usually less lurid than the weekly episodes, the audience providing a reminder that someone else is actually listening.

I reckon our Ed will handle himself pretty well as long as he realises that there are few boundaries. He is, I think, much better at these sorts of informal events than at the big set piece speeches.

For the Many has been going since 2017 and, if my calculations are correct, will hit its 400th episode during its Edinburgh run. I started listening to it by accident just before Christmas last year and was surprised at how much I enjoyed it.

Since, I’ve gone back to listen to some of the episodes covering Brexit, Covid and the ongoing Tory psychodrama. As you would expect, Lib Dems don’t usually get the credit we deserve in their analysis so I generally fall asleep during the serious bits and wake up in fits of rib-breaking laughter at some of the outrageous filth they come out with.

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Caron Lindsay

Lib Dems challenge coronation arrests

By Caron Lindsay | Sat 13th May 2023 - 10:25 am

Back in the 1930s, there was a deep suspicion amongst courtiers of broadcasting royal events on the radio. They worried that the events would be demeaned by men listening to them in public houses with their hats on. Ninety years on, these courtiers would have been utterly disgusted at the prospect of women watching last Saturday’s coronation (as I did) on their phones on sunbeds in Spain, one pina colada to the good.

I hadn’t intended to watch any of it while I was away on my first ever girls’ holiday. Truth be told, I’d had trouble even mustering up indifference. However, one of our party had a friend participating and she wanted to see if she could spot him.

So I managed to marvel at some of the proceedings, including Penny Mordaunt’s impressive sword-holding while dressed as every Tory Boy’s Thatcherite fantasy.

However much I like the spectacle, I am far from convinced that a hereditary monarchy, even one with few powers, is the best way for our country to be governed. I am not too exercised by the question, though, as there are many more pressing things – including giving people the Parliament they ask for – that need to be done.

I totally get why protesters from the organisation Republic might want to make their point by protesting in the run up to the coronation. They have every right to do so in a democratic society. Yet heavy handed action by the Police saw protesters, and in one case a royal fan who was there to enjoy the day, arrested and deprived of their liberty for hours.  A retrospective expression of regret by the Police is just not good enough.

The events showed the flaws in the recently passed Public Order Act, exactly as our people in Parliament had warned as it was debated.

As you would expect, Lib Dems have been highly critical of the arrests. Alistair Carmichael, our Home Affairs spokesperson, said on Twitter:

Tim Farron said that tolerating protest would be the “most utterly British thing imaginable:

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Tom Arms

Observations of an expat: Trump

By Tom Arms | Sat 13th May 2023 - 8:58 am

Americans are divided as to whether this has been a good, bad or pretty much the same as always week for Donald Trump.

The ex-president is now legally stigmatised as a sex abuser. Journalist E. Jean Carroll also managed to legally out him as a serial liar. Of course, most people have for years regarded Trump as a lying sex pest, but it is another matter having it unanimously confirmed by a courtroom jury of your peers.

The Trump sex abuse trial was quickly followed by a CNN-organised town hall meeting in New Hampshire where the former president continued to defame Ms Carroll (which may end up costing him even more money). He also refused to back Ukraine and said he would end the war in 24 hours; plunge the world into economic chaos rather than raise the US debt ceiling; would pardon most of the January 6 Capitol Hill rioters and, of course, claimed that he won the 2020 presidential election race.

Anyone who disagrees with him continues to be a nasty, lying peddler of fake news.

So what impact will all the above have on Trump’s bid for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination and a possible Trump-Biden re-run in 2024. I put that and several other questions to my podcast co-host Lockwood Phillips. You can listen to his replies on TransAtlantic Riff at Spotify.com.

Lockwood, I should add is a Trump-supporting conservative Republican. He reckoned that this week’s events will have no impact on Trump’s election chances. His base and position within the Republican Party is secure and Biden’s unpopularity will sweep the ex-president back into the White House.

Lockwood is representative of a Trump supp0rter. But not all conservative Americans. Others whom I canvassed were adamant that they voted for him in the past but would never cast their ballot for him again.

One senior Trump-appointed official told me: “Trump will be toast by the time the primaries actually take place… still more legal shoes will drop…. He is a dead man walking.”

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Mark Pack

Mark Pack’s May report – Another great success

By Mark Pack | Thu 11th May 2023 - 9:59 am

It’s vital to learn from failures. But it’s much more fun to learn from successes. So there is a lot of fun to be had in learning the lessons for the Liberal Democrats from the latest local elections.

Let’s summarise those successes with three numbers:

  • +407 seats – the party’s second biggest gain in raw seats since the mid-1990s.
  • +12 councils – taking the number of Lib Dem majority councils to its highest for at least 18 years.
  • 20% equivalent national share – the highest on this BBC measure since going into coalition in 2010. (The alternative NEV measure was the joint best since 2010.)

However, it’s important to remember that not everyone who hoped to win did so. For colleagues who were seeking election but didn’t make it, it can be even tougher when all around people are celebrating. If you, or someone close to you, is in that position, my commiserations and thanks for all you’ve done.

Five in a row

Perhaps the most important element of the local election results is one that has been mostly overlooked. It’s that the Lib Dems have now made it five rounds of local elections in a row at which we’ve made net gains. You have to go back to 2002-6 for the last time we did that.

Another way of looking at our progress is the cumulative gains and losses so far in May elections during this Parliament:

  • Lib Dems +637
  • Greens +416
  • Labour +318
  • Conservatives -1,309

That’s the sort of sustained progress which has been an important part of the party’s strategy in this Parliament: investing in our grassroots campaigning support, for both stronger and weaker areas, concentrating on target seats at election time but expanding our areas of strength as we do. Sustained grassroots growth is what will make us a successful national party.

The most dramatic progress was against the Conservatives, and as in 2019 once again our vote share did best the more an area had voted Remain. In areas that voted Remain in 2016, our vote share was up nearly 1.5 points on average, though in areas that voted 60% or more Leave in 2016, our vote share was down just under a point.

But in addition, many groups primarily up against Labour managed to grow, including us becoming the official opposition on Sunderland Council.

Overall, in the places with zero or one Lib Dem council seat up for election this time, we made a net 21 gains, going from 32 councillors in these councils to 53. Four times as many of these smaller places went forward as went back and we went up in every region.

Map of Lib Dem seat gains in May 2023 local elections

 

Regional breakdown of seat changes in May 2023 local elections

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Daniel Stylianou

The fight for Turkey’s soul

By Daniel Stylianou | Wed 10th May 2023 - 1:19 pm

He hasn’t been successful throughout his career. A former civil servant and ex-accountant, his political party has lost every general election since he became their leader in 2010. And yet, despite this, millions of Turks now look to him to save their country from their autocratic President and fulfil his promise to restore democracy to their country.

He is, of course, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the Republican People’s Party and head of the National Alliance. Comprised of six opposition parties, many hope the National Alliance will finally unseat incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, ending his grip on power.

In four days Turks will go to the polls in the 2023 Presidential Elections. It is estimated over 60 million Turks will cast their vote and elect a President for a new five year term. The opposition leader has been cast in the role of Turkey’s saviour; his signature hand gesture is to hold them in the shape of a heart, and he professes to live as ordinary Turks do (he has claimed he will eschew living in the presidential palace if elected).

Having lost every general election since elected as leader of the CHP, it is perhaps surprising that Kılıçdaroğlu has become the frontrunner to defeat Erdoğan. But actions speak loudly, and Kılıçdaroğlu has campaigned tirelessly to restore democracy to a country on the steep, dangerous slope towards complete autocracy. In 2017, a CHP politician and member of the Turkish parliament was sentenced to 25 years in prison, accused of leaking state secrets. Kılıçdaroğlu organised a 28-mile walk from Ankara to Istanbul in response – the “Justice March” – which, despite being attacked with stones and manure, carried their peaceful mark over 25 days to end with a rally in Maltepe.

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Bernard Aris

Two royal festive outings, the right to protest and activist minorities

By Bernard Aris | Tue 9th May 2023 - 6:00 pm

First of all: it was a coincidence, but it must have been galling to Putin that both the Queens burial and the crowning of Charles III were two occasions that the British, geopolitical competitors of Russia since the era of the Eurasian “Great Game” around China, Afghanistan and Persia, presented the world with two brilliant military displays of discipline, high-end marching ability, historical uniforms, and with a plethora of Commonwealth troops joining in.

By contrast, the May 9th military parades for Russia’s VE Day over the “Nazis”, since 1945 one of the main manifestations of Soviet/Russian military might, have been toned down because after the fake “two slow drones attacking the Kremlin”-charade, Russia pretends that NATO infiltrators are attacking the Kremlin, citadel of Moscow, and screams that “they” want to kill Putin (who in reality seldom visits the Kremlin itself anyway; see: Russian defector sheds light on Putin paranoia and his secret train network | Vladimir Putin | The Guardian ).

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Samuel Jackson

Perfect balance: The Liberal Democrats’ ideal outcome at the next General Election

By Samuel Jackson | Tue 9th May 2023 - 8:36 am

The 2023 local elections have finally passed. Many of us put a great deal of time and effort into leafleting and canvassing around our communities to get out the vote and even to sway some voters. At these elections, we won a net gain of over 400 councillors and control of the councils in:

  • Chichester
  • Horsham
  • Stratford-upon-Avon
  • Dacorum
  • West Berkshire
  • South Oxfordshire
  • Guildford
  • Surrey Heath
  • Windsor and Maidenhead
  • Mid Devon
  • South Hams
  • Teignbridge
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Daniel Stylianou

Voting Liberal Democrat for the first time

By Daniel Stylianou | Sun 7th May 2023 - 8:30 pm

Since I was eligible to vote, I have voted for the Conservative Party. Local elections, by-elections, General Elections; I’ve always “voted blue, no matter who”. Part of the reason, I’m sure, is the influence of my grandparents who have always voted Conservative. The other reason is easier to identify; as someone always interested – and now working in – law, the fact that the Conservative Party has always been identified as the “party of law and order” naturally drew me to them.

I won’t lie. I have never delved too deeply into the individual policies of the party. I started voting Conservative and didn’t stop. I followed Conservative MPs on Twitter and Facebook, I read “right leaning” newspapers and, for a period of time, I joined the local party association and gave my support as a local activist. I was even asked, where I used to live, to consider standing for the council (albeit as a paper candidate).

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 7th May 2023 - 10:25 am

UK

The advisers to King Charles III have scored an own goal on the eve of his coronation.

The crowning of a new monarch is the obvious opportunity for the British public – and the Commonwealth – to re-examine their monarchical v republican sympathies. And the resultant opinion polls make grim reading for King Charles III and his “heirs and successors.”

A YouGov poll for the BBC this week showed that a majority of the British public – 58 percent – supported the monarchy. However, among 18-24 year olds the figure was only 32 percent.

King Charles is also head of the Commonwealth and head of state in 15 Commonwealth countries. A straw poll of the 15 indicates that almost all of them are likely to become republics during the coming reign. As for the head of the Commonwealth, that is an elected position and Charles had to campaign hard to succeed his mother in the role.

In the midst of this monarchical uncertainty, Buckingham Palace (or possibly the Archbishop of Canterbury) has dramatically changed a key part of the coronation ceremony and in doing so alienated millions. The king’s subjects watching the ceremony on television are being asked to stand and swear “that I will pay true allegiance to Your Majesty and to your heirs and successors, according to law, so help me God.”

I have no problem with this because I separate the person from the institution. To my mind the monarch is the physical repository of British history, tradition, culture and law. Swearing allegiance to him (or her) is a bit like Americans swearing allegiance to the Star Spangled Banner.

But most people fail to see this distinction, and the wording of the oath does not help.  They don’t go beyond the person, whose faults include committing adultery against the glamorous and much loved Diana. They may support the monarchy but not necessarily the monarch and resent being asked to do so.

France

France appears to have a self-image problem. It also has a problem with economic realities, political crises and their relationship with their president.

This week the annual May Day parade descended into riots which in turn led to accusations of heavy-handed police tactics. Another general strike (which probably means more riots) has been scheduled for 6 June.

The immediate cause of the general discontent is President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to a decree that raised the pension age from 62 to 64. The rise made was backed by sound economic reasoning and undermined by poor political logic and tactics.

The row over the pension age was the straw that broke the back of the French body politic. Voters have been disturbed for some time by Macron’s tendency to do what he thinks best with scant regard for the views of his fellow Frenchmen.

This week the French president has been on a countrywide tour to try to explain his pension policies. It is too little too late. Almost everywhere he has gone his speeches have been drowned out by the angry banging of pots and pans.

On top of that, a recent survey exposed an underlying French discontent with their lot in life.  The poll revealed that 67 percent believe that France ranks with the United States in social and economic inequality. The United States is 71st out of 169 countries with 169 being the least equal. France is 6th, just below the Scandinavians.

Discontent has political consequences. It feeds populist politicians who promise simple solutions to complex problems.  A poll last month by the Elabe Group for BFM TV revealed that if a presidential election was held then it would be won by Marine Le Pen, leader of the Far Right National Rally. She would, according to the survey, garner 55 percent of the vote compared to 45 percent for Macron.

Marine Le Pen has already announced that she will stand again for the presidency in 2027. Macron is constitutionally barred from standing for a third term. His greatest fear is that he will be known as the president who paved the way for Marine Le Pen entering the Elysee Palace.

Russia

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Tom Arms

Observations of an expat: Turkish Elections

By Tom Arms | Sat 6th May 2023 - 10:19 am

Turkey is the ultimate political straddler. It straddles the Dardanelles – Eastern Europe’s gateway from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. It also straddles the continents of Europe and Asia and has historically bridged the cultures of East and West.

For all those reasons and more any Turkish election would be important. But the vote next weekend (14 May) is crucial for Turkey, Europe, the Middle East, NATO, and the Ukraine War and beyond. For the first time, Turkish voters have a clear choice between a populist Islamist autocrat and a politician who promises to return the country to the secular democratic roots that Kemal Ataturk introduced exactly 100 years ago.  Opinion polls indicate that the result could go either way.

The most likely scenario for this weekend is that none of the four candidates will win an outright majority this weekend. In that case, there will be a second round on 28 May which will almost certainly be between incumbent Recep Tayip Erdogan, populist leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Kemal Kilidaroglu, leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and representing a six-party anti-Erdogan coalition.

For most Turkish voters the key issues are the economy and the recent earthquake that killed more than 50,000 and displaced an estimated 6 million. On the first, Erdogan suffers. In the past two years, the Turkish lira has lost 60 percent of its value against the dollar. Runaway inflation at a peak of 86 percent through millions into poverty. It is currently 50 percent. Unemployment is running at 9.7 percent. Erdogan is universally blamed for mismanaging the economy.

The earthquake is another matter. The president was quick to visit the disaster-struck zones, organise relief operations and allocate money for rebuilding. But the quake was in Erdogan’s political heartland which means up to a million displaced people will be unable to vote for him.

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Mary Reid

Voter ID – did it prevent electoral fraud or did it interfere with voters’ rights?

By Mary Reid | Fri 5th May 2023 - 4:22 pm

Various reports have been coming in about the impact of Voter ID on the polls.

The first thing to say is that almost all voters got the message and turned up with correct ID. But some didn’t, and that is worrying. Worse still we don’t actually know how many people were turned away in some council areas.

I was telling yesterday in Elmbridge and the council had employed one extra polling clerk at each polling station this time. Their job was to greet voters outside as they arrived, check they had suitable ID and then point them in the right direction. That may sound a sensible idea until you realise one thing. If a voter went inside the polling station without ID then this was recorded by the polling staff; if they then returned with the correct ID and voted then that was, of course, recorded too. So it should be possible to find out how many people were turned away for lack of ID and how many of those returned later to vote.  But where a greeter was employed there was no record of how many were turned away since they didn’t actually enter the polling station.

So I am bound to ask, why did the Council employ this tactic and who paid for the extra staff ? Were they just being kind hearted, unaware of the way it would supress data on those who were turned away? Or were Heads of Democratic Services advised to do this by a higher power?

The BBC has this: Voters express anger at ID rule changes. It includes a case where an immuno-supressed woman was unable to vote because she was not prepared to remove her mask for identification purposes.

Tom Brake, the former Lib Dem MP, is now the director of the Unlock Democracy, which has been campaigning against Voter ID. He is referred to in the BBC post:

(Tom Brake) said his organisation had been tracking social media throughout the day, and that it was clear that a “significant number of people didn’t know about the need for voter ID”.

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Michael Taylor

The case for state ownership or control of water and electricity

By Michael Taylor | Thu 4th May 2023 - 10:35 am

As many friends know, I now live in a seaside town in Greece.

I have been reflecting on the cost of living here and, in particular, the cost of water and electricity, compared to the UK.

I have just paid my first water bill. For six months I have paid 37€. It’s not that I don’t use water, I do. I have a washing machine and a dishwasher, I clean the car, I water the garden and of course I shower and shave daily. Compare that with the £25 a month I was paying in Mytholmroyd, which I left just over a year ago. I suspect it’s gone up now.

My most recent electricity bill was 134€ for a month and the Greek government subsidies me by 159€ a month. My house is all electric with AC units which double up as heaters in the winter and there are pumps on both the cold-water supply and the solar water heating panel. My cooker is electric. I believe that were I still in the UK I would be paying around £450 a month for my previous flat. This means that electricity in 74% more expensive in the UK even if I had no subsidy in Greece. With the subsidy my electricity bill is 280% less than in the UK.

Now, Greece is not a particularly wealthy country. It recently went through a major financial crisis and much that the state had done before has been lost. Water, however, is run by local councils. In the UK water is owned by private companies and the costs are exorbitant and the directors grossly overpaid.

My electricity company in Greece DEH is the former state-owned electricity company. Yet, it is not charging grossly inflated prices and people are being helped with their electricity bills. Sure, it’s slow to act and there are power cuts sometimes (mainly due to weather like thunderstorms), but it is providing a service at affordable prices. It is clearly regulated and behaves reasonably.

The conclusion I draw from this is twofold.

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Charley Hasted

Liberal Democrat Councillor speaks out about stalking experience

By Charley Hasted | Mon 1st May 2023 - 12:30 pm

Brent Councillor Anton Georgiou spoke to the Kilburn Times and the Local Democracy Reporting Service recently about his experience of being stalked and called for better support for victims of stalking and especially those in public life.

Councillor Georgiou spoke candidly about his experiences – from receiving threatening messages and constant phone calls to his stalker sending him feces, emails containing pictures of himself covered in ejaculate and death threats. He talked candidly about the impact the messages and calls had on him personally and professionally as well as on his family and how this only increased when his stalker told him he’d moved to London from Ireland and how Anton could “run into him at any time.” leaving him afraid to leave the house.

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Caron Lindsay

Stella Creasy is right – trolls who make malicious complaints should face consequences

By Caron Lindsay | Sat 29th April 2023 - 4:24 pm

Being a woman on the internet in possession of an opinion has long been a wild ride. For most women in public life, abuse is so much worse than a man would get. And I think most of us are so used to it that we barely flinch unless the abuse directly threatens us or the people we love.

The misogynistic trolls who spend so much of their time trying to make life miserable for women they don’t agree with rarely face consequences. Now one of them has found a new way to persecute a high profile feminist and has got away with it.

Labour MP Stella Creasy has described in today’s Times (£) how a misogynistic troll went as far as reporting her to social services, saying that her views on violence against women and girls put them at risk. How on earth wanting to make misogyny a hate crime puts anyone at risk is beyond me.

Thankfully her local social services didn’t take long to realise that it was actually Stella who was at risk. But when the MP complained to the Police, she was shocked at the outcome:

The police accept that his behaviour is harassing but aren’t treating this as a crime because “as you had kids he was worried that your views would affect their upbringing, this belief was genuine and not by any sort of hate”.

At no point have they expressed any concern about the impact of this incident on my children, instead claiming that, as I am an elected representative, I should “expect” to be challenged in this way.

As Stella says, this is just another example of the institutionalised misogyny of the Police laid bare in the Casey Report.

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Tom Arms

Observations of an ex pat: Educate

By Tom Arms | Sat 29th April 2023 - 12:15 pm

When I was a young foreign affairs writer I foolishly suggested to my editor that the newspaper should print more foreign news. It was important, I argued, to educate our readers about the wider world.

His eyes literally bulged from his head as he slowly rose from behind his desk, to bellow: “Educate!? Educate!? Your job is to write stories that sell newspapers, thus making money for our owner. Now get out and do just that.”

He was right. A free and informative press is a cornerstone of our democracy. But to be free and provide accurate information it must be financially viable. To be financially viable it must produce stories that its readers/viewers/listeners want.

Today’s editors and publishers face major problems. As do the burgeoning army of podcasters, bloggers, vloggers and social influencers. The world of the internet and global communications has lowered the cost of entry into the publishing/broadcasting world while the size of the advertising pie which finances the media world has remained static.

Local newspapers have been particularly hard hit. Since 2005, Britain has lost about 300 titles. But this is nothing compared to the US where a staggering 2.514 local newspapers have either merged or disappeared over the same period. Those that survive cling to life with frustrated and underpaid skeleton newsrooms unable to adequately serve their communities.

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George Cunningham

British citizen evacuation from Sudan – Call for Official Enquiry

By George Cunningham | Sat 29th April 2023 - 10:03 am

An estimated four thousand British citizens have needed evacuation from Sudan. The UK government commenced its evacuation effort on Tuesday, 25th April, after it had reportedly evacuated its diplomats.

By contrast, one day earlier, on Monday 24th April, EU High Representative Josep Borrell announced that 31 flights would have evacuated an estimated 1,200 EU citizens by the end of the day, with a remaining 400 EU citizens left to be evacuated. “There has been an incredible mobilisation of the Member States” said Mr Borrell, “that have air facilities and air capabilities to move planes, to move soldiers and to move military protection, and taking everybody that they could”.

The UK has denied that its efforts to evacuate embassy staff from Sudan last weekend interfered with Germany’s plans to get its citizens out. It is said that the Sudanese army initially closed access to the key airport after being infuriated by the unauthorised presence of British armed forces on the site.

The delay in British evacuation was one of the reasons why the British Ambassador had to negotiate an extension of the 72-hour ceasefire between the warring factions to allow for more time. The FCDO said eight flights had airlifted 897 people to Cyprus as of Thursday, 27th April. Hopefully the UK has asked EU Member States – alongside the United States – to lend a helping hand to get everyone evacuated, as used to be the case automatically when the UK was a EU Member State. Australia has just thanked France for assisting in the evacuation of its citizens.

The difficulty of non-British nationals with UK residency permits – such as the well-publicised case of Sudanese-born Dr Abdulrahman Babiker and 23 other NHS doctors – to board UK rescue flights has also been heavily criticised by Layla Moran amongst others. If there are any spare seats on a flight, they must certainly be allocated to them.

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What Xi Jinping is planning on Taiwan

By Christopher | Fri 28th April 2023 - 5:50 pm

The former Moscow correspondent for NBC Ian Williams wrote an article in The Spectator dated 22nd March, describing what happened when Xi Jinping said goodbye to Vladimir Putin when their summit ended in the Kremlin last month. Xi suddenly turned to Putin and said, which seemed unscripted, “Change is coming that hasn’t happened in 100 years, and we are driving this change together”. Then “The two men clasped hands, smiling. ‘I agree,’ Putin said, briefly bringing up his free hand to hold Xi’s arm. The Chinese leader then added, ‘Please take care, dear friend'”.

What is the “change” that Xi was speaking about? In the last decade, the state media of China has presented the idea of “the East rises, the West declines” to the people, saying that China will become the greatest global power in the foreseeable future. Then the rules of the world will be changed – It was the West who set the rules in the last century, but eventually, the East will become the one to decide. Therefore, Xi was telling Putin: we will overturn those rules together.

That’s why I disagree with US State Secretary Antony Blinken when he said China and Russia are in “a marriage of convenience”, I believe Xi and Putin are soulmates who share the same ideology. The new evidence is the words from the Chinese Ambassador to France Lu Shaye in LCI interview. He reveals Xi’s true thoughts: if the previous Soviet states have no effective status in international law, Putin is righteous to reclaim all those countries. Xi will fully support Putin in doing so; in return, Putin must back Xi to achieve his historical mission, the “reunification” with Taiwan.

US President Biden told the media that he believes there is no imminent threat of a Taiwan invasion after he met with Xi Jinping last November. Reports said Xi promised Biden that China would not take any military action during Biden’s first presidency. Can Xi be trusted? Well, technically, yes, Xi needs time to prepare to strike. We need to know that the failure of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine does not make Xi hesitate but to refine his war plan on Taiwan to justify himself to become the Fuhrer of China.

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Jack Clark

The SNP will survive their crisis, and so they should

By Jack Clark | Fri 28th April 2023 - 3:19 pm

This week’s (26th April) BBC Debate Night (Scotland’s version of Question Time) discussed the question “Will the SNP survive the crisis they are in at the moment?”. With the panel made up of Labour, SNP, and Conservative MSPs, SNP supporter Aamer Anwar, and former Labour Special Adviser, Ayesha Hazarika, it lacked a liberal position on the issue. A position I hope I can articulate here.

So in my opinion, will they survive? Yes.

As a follow up question, should they survive? Yes.

This is a crisis for the SNP, undoubtedly, but it risks becoming a crisis for Scottish democracy in the medium-long term. The SNP have made a name for themselves in claiming to stand up for democracy, and for change in Scotland. A party which can take the moral high-ground over the Westminster establishment.

What happens now that they have been subject to two high profile arrests, infighting over party finances, a fridge-freezer, and a motorhome?

Polls so far have shown that SNP support is declining, but support for Labour, Greens, and Lib Dems has not risen enough to compensate. Furthermore, the latest YouGov poll, 16% of 2019 SNP voters said they don’t know who they would vote for in the next UK election. For Panelbase and Redfield & Wilton the figure was 10%, Survation 9%, and Savanta 7%.

This is especially significant when you consider that support for independence has remained stable in the aftermath of the resignation and leadership election. While the number of undecideds has also gone up, but this has always been volatile on the Indyref question.

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Unwarranted Conservative complacency at PMQs

By Michael Berwick-Gooding and Katharine Pindar | Fri 28th April 2023 - 12:36 pm

It was astonishing to hear the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, announcing with pride during his set-to with Labour Leader Keir Starmer at Wednesday’s Prime Minister Questions that “Two million more people have risen from poverty in the years of the Conservative governments.”

Poverty is normally measured relative to near contemporary median income. This is the most commonly used measure. For example the latest figures are for 2020/21 and 13.4 million are in relative poverty, after housing costs (as reported by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation), where relative poverty is 60% of median income. Rishi Sunak is using absolute low income which is based on 60% of the median income back in 2010/11, uprated by inflation. This is not a good way to measure poverty as the base year seems arbitrary. In 2010/11 there were 13.1 million people living in poverty using both measurements.

There was a decline in the number living in relative poverty in 2020/21 because of Covid.  Down from 14.5 million and 22% in 2019/20. This was because median income fell due to the work furlough scheme, where the Government paid 80% of the salary of those on furlough because of Covid, and those on Universal Credit and Working Tax Credit received an extra £20 a week.

Poverty in Britain has in fact remained stubbornly high at around 20% of the population during the past decade. When housing costs are taken into account, the estimated number of people in relatively low income households dropped from 13.5 million (22%) to 13.4 million (20%) between 2009/10 and 2020/21.

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Mary Reid

14,000 hours of sewage dumped last year in chalk streams

By Mary Reid | Thu 27th April 2023 - 12:01 pm

I have an interest in chalk streams, or one in particular, the Hogsmill, which lies less than a mile from my home; its tributary, the Bonesgate, runs through my ward.

The Hogsmill rises in Ewell and flows for 6 miles to the Thames at Kingston, having passed by the Coronation Stone where seven Saxon kings were crowned and gone under the 12th century Clattern Bridge. Its name derives from the water mills that lay along its length, and specifically one belonging to someone called Hogg. The mills were used for several purposes, from grinding flour to providing gunpowder for the American Civil War.

Millais worked on his famous painting of Ophelia along one pretty stretch of the river (see photo). He did not ask his model to actually float in the river, but painted the lush background there and more prosaically got her to pose in a bath in his studio.

Another pre-Raphaelite, Holman Hunt, knew the area well. In The Light of the World, which hangs in St Paul’s Cathedral, he depicts Jesus carrying a lamp in a dark wood and knocking on a door that is overgrown with creepers. That door was based on one of the disused mills that he found along the Hogsmill.

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Mark Pack

Mark Pack: My monthly report to members

By Mark Pack | Thu 27th April 2023 - 9:29 am

A great result on candidate numbers

There’s been a big increase in the number of Liberal Democrat candidates for this May’s local elections. We’ve got up to 60% of seats having a Lib Dem candidate (up seven points on last time around). It’s our best showing for this part of the local elections cycle compared with Labour since 2011 and compared with the Conservatives since 2007.

That’s important for our credibility with voters. It means so many more people will see the Liberal Democrat name and logo on their ballot papers. It also matters for our credibility with the media, as the positive coverage in The Guardian demonstrates.

We still have some way to go to match Labour’s 77% or the Conservatives 93%. But it’s a big step forward and follows up progress earlier this Parliament. As well as being important progress in its own right, it’s just the sort of sustained, coordinated push that we need to build us up for a sustained, long-term challenge to the big parties.

Many thanks to everyone who helped achieve this progress – and very best of luck to everyone who is standing in a seat they hope to win this May.

For a fair deal

You may well have noticed how much more the party is talking about campaigning for a fair deal – such as on the backdrop at our York conference or in the March party political broadcast on TV in England.

It’s the positive part of our message that complements our call to ‘send them a message’, highlighting the failures of the Conservatives in Westminster and Labour in so many other elected bodies – not to mention the spectacularly imploding SNP in Scotland.

That fairness theme goes to the heart of what makes us Liberal Democrats. It’s no coincidence either that it’s worked so well for us previously, such as with Charles Kennedy.

There will be more on what the Liberal Democrat version of fairness means in the ‘pre-manifesto’ policy document coming out over the summer for our autumn conference.

When will the general election be?

All of which prompts the question – when will the next Westminster general election come? The short answer is no-one knows, not even the Prime Minister.

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Victor Chamberlain

Liberal Democrats and Labour want the Tories out, but we must resist the descent into cheap culture-war politics

By Victor Chamberlain | Wed 26th April 2023 - 7:55 am

Liberal Democrats and Labour both want the Tories out, but we must resist the descent into cheap culture-war politics

 My job as the Liberal Democrat Leader of the Opposition in Southwark is to hold Southwark’s Labour Council to account. There’s much we don’t agree on: the lack of affordable homes for local people, rising crime, the state of our estates, poor customer service from the council, Labour feathering their own nests and marking their own homework, the lack of urgency on the climate emergency… to name but a few!

 However, Liberal Democrats and Labour are both progressive parties and have more in common than divides us. We share a goal that becomes more desperately important every day – getting the Tories out of government.

 The last decade of Conservative government has been a financial, social and environmental disaster for the UK. Public services are crippled by strikes, people are feeling the pinch and the economy is set to shrink, Brexit has been a disaster and any kind of meaningful response to the climate emergency is entirely absent.

 The only response the Conservatives have to their endless failures is to drag political discourse down to cheap, culture war battles. They attack the vulnerable and heighten divisions to distract from the downward spiral they have left the UK in.

 It is vitally important that the opposition parties resist this degradation of our political landscape. Unfortunately, Labour seems unable to resist the temptation. We all want rid of this terrible Tory Government. As Ed Davey said at Spring Conference “ only goal seems to be: “Not as bad as the Conservatives”. Talk about a low bar!” We all deserve so much better.

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Stewart Tolley

The Liberal Democrats should oppose the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership

By Stewart Tolley | Tue 25th April 2023 - 2:00 pm

Embed from Getty Images

Adam Smith in his seminal work The Wealth of Nations made the clear observation that trade ‘carried on with a neighbouring country is…more advantageous’ than that ‘with a distant country’ and he was even clearer that the most beneficial situation would come from ‘greater trade with continental Europe’ (Smith, 537).

Smith’s words are as true now as they were then but unfortunately the Conservative party (the supposed party of the economy who idealise Smith) have decided to ignore this. Ever since 2016 the determination to pursue hard Brexit has trumped all forms of economic credibility and common sense.

As with the imperialists of centuries ago who wanted to maximise trade with the Empire over our nearest neighbours the current crop of Tories have decided to pursue far flung trade deals to try and compensate for the barriers they have erected against the EU.

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Nicholas Chan

Social Justice, from Hong Kong to Rainham

By Nicholas Chan | Tue 25th April 2023 - 10:08 am

I appreciate having the opportunity to come live in the UK from Hong Kong. It is a humbling privilege to play a part in the Liberal Democrats, as local champions in the Local Elections 2023. I am standing as the candidate for Rainham North with Stuart Bourne and Alan Collins, honestly advocating for social justice.

The campaign in Medway is determined and real. Canvassing and Focus delivery were steam-rolling a year ahead. I was a late-comer, busy moving from Gravesend and changing my profession into law. So, it was a pleasant surprise when the local party called me while I was on holiday and encouraged me to stand in a promising three-member ward. I grew fond of road works and potholes.

Truthfully, I do see my local campaigns as an extension of my pro-bono legal work in social justice. The power of persuasion, pressing public bodies and utility companies to act in resolving street works, is no less than advocating for my clients who are unfairly punished by Community Protection Notices or fighting for Child Arrangement Orders even as they are estranged by domestic violence.

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Lord William Wallace

Political chaos and political reform

By Lord William Wallace | Mon 24th April 2023 - 12:15 pm

If you haven’t read the extracts from Anthony Seldon’s forthcoming book on Boris Johnson’s mismanagement of government, being serialised in the Times and Sunday Times since Saturday, you’re missing something that you can usefully quote next time you come up against a Tory candidate. Seldon is not a commentator who can be dismissed by the Right as a ‘leftie’ intellectual. Biographer of Margaret Thatcher, former vice-chancellor of the University of Buckingham, son of one of the founders of the Institute of Economic Affairs, he is a pillar of the conservative establishment. (Full disclosure: his mother canvassed for the Liberals in the Orpington by-election, and Michael Steed and I stayed there for a week.) The extracts quote from insiders who knew what was going on.

And it’s devastating. Chaotic, with an incompetent prime minister dependent on an adviser (Dominic Cummings) who despised him almost as much as he despised Parliament and the conventional rules of constitutional government, and with a new partner/wife with her own political views and expertise. It portrays inability to take clear decisions at the centre or to implement them through Departments, with an inbuilt tendency to bypass ministers and civil servants whenever possible and to prioritise presentation over substance. This was politics as a permanent campaign, rather than a recognition that government is complicated and unavoidably slow-moving.

The Conservatives campaigned in 2017 and 2019 on a platform of strong and stable single-party government, against what they portrayed as the chaos of coalition – by which they meant a Labour government dependent on the SNP. What they’ve inflicted on the UK is the chaos of single-party factionalism, compounded by dreadful leadership choices in both Johnson and Truss. Opinions on May and Sunak are a little less negative, but both have been hamstrung by internal conflicts within the parliamentary party between a dwindling bunch of pragmatists, a group of ambitious cynics and an ideological right. The defenestration of Raab suggests that the chaos will roll on to the 2024 election, likely to be postponed to the latest possible date by continuing squabbles between ‘realos’ and ‘fundamentalists’.

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Mark Valladares

Welcome to my day: 24 April 2023 – anyone would think that governance matters…

By Mark Valladares | Mon 24th April 2023 - 7:30 am

Look, I told you. Governance matters…

I freely admit that I do “bang on” about governance quite a lot in these (mostly) weekly pieces. And that might well be because I’m a bureaucrat and the sort of person that reads constitutions so that I know what my remit is and what the rules are. But I also know that mutual respect, even when you disagree, and a mind open to enough honest doubt to accept that you might not always be right, tends to produce better outcomes.

But it tells you a lot that the Conservative response to the Raab fiasco is …

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Callum Robertson

Do not walk away from accountability, reform OFSTED, do not abolish it.

By Callum Robertson | Sun 23rd April 2023 - 3:30 pm

OFSTED, the schools inspectorate has received flack for its inspection methods in the aftermath of the tragic death of Ruth Perry earlier this year. Following a period of silence, OFSTED Chief Inspector Amanda Spielman appeared on BBC Laura Kuenssberg this morning to face questions over the OFSTED’s approach to inspections.

The Liberal Democrat policy on OFSTED is to abolish it and replace it with a new body for school accountability. This is flawed for a number of reasons, not least because the hiatus period between abolition and refounding could lead to serious failures in uncovering failing establishments, hurting the life chances of the thousands of pupils in the communities that those schools serve. However, reform is a more appropriate method to secure the faith of the profession in their regulator.

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Caron Lindsay

The Tolley Report is worse than you might think from the media reporting

By Caron Lindsay | Sun 23rd April 2023 - 2:03 pm

I have spent this morning reading Adam Tolley KC’s report into the complaints about Dominic Raab’s behaviour. Of its 48 pages, the first half is devoted to the process and dealing with multiple criticisms of his methods from Dominic Raab. It’s always interesting that those accused of bullying behaviours often spend a lot of time picking holes in the investigations against them that could arguably have been spent reflecting on their own behaviour and its impact on others.

Tolley’s conclusions are being spun as though Raab has not been found to have done much wrong and that he had to deal with these civil servants who were not up for doing his bidding.  Raab makes much of the conclusion that he didn’t swear at people or throw anything at them as though overt aggression is the only way to intimidate people.

In addition to the two findings of fact that led to Raab’s resignation, Tolley criticises his Raab’s “black and white” approach:

The DPM tends to take a clear view of an issue, whatever it may comprise. This applies across the range of matters with which he deals, from policy decisions to the presentational format of papers. In the context of the investigation, this approach manifested itself in what I considered to be a somewhat absolutist approach in his response to certain points, such as whether a particular conversation had occurred, either at all or in a certain way. His responses were frequently put in ‘black or white’ terms, with no room for nuance even where nuance might reasonably be expected. I did not find this approach persuasive.

Tolley also makes the very valid point that even though Raab does not appear to have held grudges against individuals, it was understandable that they didn’t see it quite that way:

The DPM tends to ‘wipe the slate clean’ from one occasion to the next; he will neither expect to offer criticism nor necessarily offer it. What is, however, also apparent is that some officials, not used to the DPM’s approach, may reasonably anticipate that one occasion of criticism from the DPM will necessarily lead to another. The anticipation of criticism may well be
inhibiting to good performance.

The report paints a picture of someone with insufficient emotional intelligence or self awareness to be trusted with leading a department and enacting any transformational change.

Tolley goes out of his way to commend the civil servants’ sincerity and hard work.

I find that the complainants were in every case acting in good faith in raising concerns which they genuinely held. In some cases, their experience involved a significant adverse impact on their health. While I have not been able to reach any findings on whether such effects were in fact caused by the DPM’s conduct, I recognise and accept that the impacts communicated to me had genuinely been experienced.

And far from being the “snowflakes” that some would suggest, they are well aware of the high pressure environment and high quality of work expected.

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