Category Archives: Op-eds

Tom Arms

Observations of an expat: AI and international politics

By Tom Arms | Sat 3rd June 2023 - 10:44 am

Dependent on whom you listen to, AI is either going to save or destroy humanity.

In common with most leaps in human knowledge, the reality lies somewhere in the middle. Winners and losers are guaranteed.

Technology will race blindly ahead with society attempting to play catch-up and unable to do so because of its inability to know the unknown.

The one known is that the AI genii is well and truly out of the bottle and won’t/can’t be stuffed back in. The trick therefore is how to regulate it in order to maximise the upside and minimise the downside.

One of the most pressing AI-related needs is for an agreed international framework. The technology has the potential to impact military capabilities to such a degree that it could dwarf the significance of nuclear weapons. A nationalist-driven AI-race is bad. Unfortunately it has already started.

Britain’s post-Brexit economy is declining and the government sees AI as an opportunity to harness the country’s small but effective high-tech industry to reverse the trend. It has issued a White Paper which emphasises a Wild West approach to Artificial Intelligence in a bid to become an AI super power. It will avoid “heavy-handed legislation which could stifle innovation” and “take an adaptable approach to regulating AI.”

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Samuel Jackson

Some thoughts on the Alliance for Radical Democratic Change

By Samuel Jackson | Fri 2nd June 2023 - 5:45 pm

In December of last year, former Prime Minister Gordon Brown published his report A New Britain. It endorsed constitutional changes including the replacement of the House of Lords with an elected senate and greater devolution for cities and regions across the UK, intended to resolve the ‘unreformed, over-centralised way of governing that leaves millions of people complaining they are neglected, ignored, and invisible’.

Last Thursday, he announced the launch of the Alliance for Radical Democratic Change, a campaign aiming for the adoption of A New Britain’s recommendations as policies in Labour next election manifesto and subsequent enactment by a future Labour government. Members of the ARDC include Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, with Scottish Labour leader Ansar Sarwar and West Yorkshire Mayor Tracy Brabin appearing as speakers at the group’s launch event.

Whilst there is significant overlap in the constitutional reforms supported by our party as policy and recommended by the ARDC, there is one area where the ARDC have come up short: electoral reform. Like Labour’s National Executive Committee, the ARDC seems apprehensive to support the replacement of Britain’s outdated First Past The Post voting system with one of proportional representation, despite such a move being favoured by a majority of Britons and an overwhelming majority of Labour members. As a matter of fact, by not supporting electoral reform, the ARDC will likely have hobbled its own agenda.

One of the key reasons why millions of people currently feel alienated from Westminster, and by extension Whitehall, is because of FPTP. It horribly distorts voters’ intentions at both the local and national levels. Members of Parliament can be elected despite being opposed by most of their constituents and may not feel any need to engage with them if they represent a safe seat. And solitary parties that can exercise total control in government with only a plurality of the national vote; although its advocates state that ‘strong, stable government’ is a benefit of FPTP, it does not guarantee it, as recent years have proved. If the ARDC were serious about

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Humaira Sanders

Britain’s involvement in the slave trade

By Humaira Sanders | Thu 1st June 2023 - 3:50 pm

On 18 January LDCRE (Liberal Democrat Campaign for Racial Equality) hosted a very interesting and informative discussion with Dr Philip Woods about Britain’s role in the slave trade, the institutions involved in it, and issues such as reparations, education and commemoration.  We had 47 people register for the talk.  We had extensive technical and advertising help from London Lib Dems, for which we are grateful.  We were delighted to see participants from a number of Lib Dem groups.

Here is a summary of some of the issues discussed, to inspire you to think about policy responses.

Titled “Britain’s Role in the Transatlantic Slave Trade and its Abolition: some current issues.  A Discussion with Dr Philip Woods.” we learnt about the shocking scale and brutality suffered by millions of African people.  Africa could have had double the population if it hadn’t been for slavery depopulating the continent, and this would have contributed to Africa’s economic growth.  It disrupted established kingdoms in Africa, led to warfare on the continent, and diverted economic activity away from domestic uses such as growing crops for domestic consumption to coastal activity instead.

Slavery became a key part of globalisation and contributed to economic growth in Britain and elsewhere.  The Royal African Company was a key vehicle for the slave trade in the 18th century and the Company became enormously wealthy as a result.

There has been involvement by all sections of the British establishment, including the monarchy, the government, the Church of England and the City of London.  Other key institutions who have benefited from the slave trade include universities and the heritage sector such as the National Trust.  It was a key part of the industrial revolution and a key part of the growth in investment within slave-trading countries.  To end slavery in this country, the government paid £20m to 40,000 slave owners: this was an enormous sum, constituting 40% of the annual budget.  The government borrowed in order to fund this compensation, and some of this was finally repaid in 2015.

There have long been calls for reparations to be paid and the Black Lives Matter movement has reignited this desire in society.  This has been a more active topic of discussion in the USA over a longer period of time compared to the UK.  It is a complex subject but some topics discussed included the role of affirmative action such as scholarships, and the removal of monuments and street names, as well as the need for reparations.

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Lord William Wallace

 Why Westminster desperately needs reform

By Lord William Wallace | Wed 31st May 2023 - 9:38 am

 Target seat parliamentary candidates don’t have much time to read books.  But they ought to find time at some point before the election to read How Westminster Works…and Why it Doesn’t, by Ian Dunt (Weidenfeld & Nicolson 2023), to warn them how dysfunctional they will find Britain’s Parliament and government have become,

Some Liberal Democrats will be familiar with Ian Dunt from his previous book, How to be a Liberal, which came out in 2020.  His analysis of Westminster, based on extensive research and interviews with current and former parliamentarians, staff, civil servants and outside observers, is devastating.  Parliamentary sovereignty, he argues, is a convenient myth that covers executive dominance – which has become more dominant in recent years, above all under Boris Johnson’s prime ministership.

Political reform is not an issue that excites most voters.  Dunt attempts to explain how repeated failures in policy outcomes are affected by the constant changes in ministerial posts, the weakness of parliamentary scrutiny, the adversarial culture of the Commons and the increasing control by central party machines of the recruitment of candidates who are assisted into safe seats.  He includes two case studies to illustrate how policy disasters emerge out of the concentration of power in too few, often poorly-qualified, hands: Chris Grayling’s privatisation of the probation service, pushed through against strong advice from experts, and the evacuation of British and local Afghan staff from Afghanistan, by a Foreign Office which had run down its relevant expertise and ministers who only paid intermittent attention to its urgency.

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Mark Valladares

Welcome to my day: 29 May 2023 – accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative, but you might have to mess with Mister Inbetween

By Mark Valladares | Mon 29th May 2023 - 12:43 pm

No sooner have I got back from the ALDE Party Congress in Stockholm than I’m off to the US for some grandparent time. There’s no doubt that the world is a smaller place than it was, but whilst politicians in other countries are at least attempting to deal with the big issues, inflation, climate change, our Government seems determined to cling to its culture war to distract from the fact that they have little idea what to do about things that matter to most of us.

Picking on the vulnerable is not governing, it’s bullying.

Mixing with liberal politicians from across Europe offers a reassurance that politics can be a way of improving things for the better through collaboration and cooperation. And yes, that does involve quite a lot of pragmatism but, if you want to bring people along with you, sometimes you can’t get everything you want. Some is better than none.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 28th May 2023 - 9:58 am

Ukraine

The ultimate Pyrrhic victory is the best way to describe the Russian capture of Bakhmut. The town has minimal strategic victory. It has cost 20,000-plus Russian lives and 50,000 casualties. Tens of thousands of artillery shells, missiles and drones have been expended. The siege has tied up Russian forces for months and left Putin’s army of a pile of rubble.

While the Russians have been throwing themselves against the Bakhmut brick wall, the Ukrainians have been taking delivery of hundreds of state-of-the-art tanks, training on F-16s, building up their drone arsenal and gathering forces for their counter offensive.

Exactly where that counter offensive will be aimed remains a top secret. A hint might be in this week’s cross-border raid on a military base in the Russian provide on Beogorod which is more or less right in the middle of Russian-Ukrainian border

The Ukrainians are not supposed to attack targets on Russian soil. This would seriously worry their Western backers who do not want to widen or escalate the conflict. So Volodomyr Zelensky’s government have denied any involvement in the attack.

In this denial they are helped by two Ukrainian paramilitary groups – Freedom of Russia and the Russian Volunteer Corps—who have both claimed credit for the operation. Both these groups say they have filled their ranks with Russians living in Eastern Ukraine and defectors from the Russian army. The declared aim of both is the overthrow of Vladimir Putin as well as an independent Ukraine.

In the shadowy world of paramilitaries it is difficult to separate fact from fiction, especially as both groups are based in the Russian-occupied Donbas Region. But Freedom of Russia is believed to be the largest of the two group with 1,000 armed men. They are also believed to surreptitiously receive training and weapons from the Ukrainian military, but operate independently.

The Russian Volunteer Corps has virtually no links with the government in Kyiv. This is because they and their leader Denis Nitikin are far-right White Supremacists who want to overthrow Zelensky as well as Putin because the Ukrainian leader is Jewish. They are Russian ultra-nationalists who want Moscow to concentrate on protecting ethnic Russians inside Russia’s existing borders.

Russia and China

The Sino-Soviet love fest continued this week with a meeting between the prime ministers of the two countries.

At the end of the two days of talks Moscow’s Mikhail Mishustin declared that due to “sensational pressure” from the West, Sino-Russian cooperation had reached an “unprecedented high.”

During his talks with Chinese counterpart Li Qiang, The Russian prime minister signed a series of agreements to bolster trade in services, agriculture and sporting links.  But conspicuous by its absence was a Chinese commitment to provide Russia with military support for its invasion of Ukraine.

Chinese President Xi Jinping believes that China is locked in an irreversible ideological battle with the West and that Russia is an essential partner if it has any chance of success. He and Vladimir Putin are as one as regards the strategic goal. But they differ on tactics.

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Mo Waqas

Pakistan a wicket away from Authoritarianism

By Mo Waqas | Sat 27th May 2023 - 2:34 pm

I want to dive into a topic that has been keeping me up at night: the current situation in Pakistan. Specifically, I’m deeply concerned about the suppression of journalistic freedoms and the erosion of democracy happening over there. It’s not just a distant issue either; as a British Pakistani, it hits close to home and raises serious worries about the safety of our loved ones.

Let’s start with the alarming case of journalist Imran Riaz Khan, who was detained without proper justification. It’s a blatant attack on free speech and a direct threat to transparency and accountability. When journalists can’t do their jobs without fear of retribution, it shakes the very foundations of democracy. We need to stand up and fight for their rights, not just for their sake, but for the sake of a free and open society.

One incident that shook me to the core was Imran Khan’s arrest, right from the premises of a court hearing. The aftermath of this arrest was devastating, with riots erupting and tragically leading to the loss of 50 innocent lives as security forces opened fire on protestors. It’s incredibly disheartening to see such violence and a blatant disregard for human life in the pursuit of political agendas.

But let’s not forget that the challenges faced by PTI politicians go beyond this shocking event. They are subjected to immense pressure and intimidation, forcing them to abandon their parties merely to secure bail. It’s truly unfathomable to think that elected officials, who should be representing the voices of the people, are being subjected to physical abuse and torture simply for standing up for their beliefs. It’s a stark reminder of authoritarian regimes, where political dissent is suppressed, and individual freedoms are trampled upon.

As members of the Liberal Democrats, we have a duty to protect democracy and uphold human rights. Our historical ties with Pakistan, combined with the significant British Pakistani community, give us a unique opportunity to make a difference. We need to be vocal advocates for press freedom and condemn any erosion of democratic values. By doing so, we can contribute to the well-being of British Pakistanis and support a stable Pakistan that embraces democratic principles.

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Rob Parsons

Embrace the Elephant

By Rob Parsons | Sat 27th May 2023 - 10:30 am

The elephant is of course that big, and growing, elephant in the corner of the sitting room: Brexit. Now that Project Fear has become Project Here, it is time for us in the Lib Dems to be much more open about our belief that Britain’s place lies back at the heart of Europe.

Ever since the Brexit vote I’ve been reasonably sure this time would come. Voting to leave was a mistake, and its costs would sooner or later become apparent. The ideological nature of the vote was such that many people would cling stubbornly to their belief that it was right – for some years, I thought. But once it began to crumble, it would crumble quickly. I was right about the trajectory, wrong about the timing. I thought it would be at least another couple of years. (I didn’t allow for the damage to be so deep, or the government to be so negligent.)

As long as the bulk of Brexit voters held to their beliefs, and, equally, as long as the bulk of the British population continued to be hoodwinked by the idea that to campaign for our beliefs was somehow undemocratic, we were probably right to soft pedal on it. I have thought for a long time that the backlash would outweigh the potential gains; but I believed we only needed to be patient.

Our policy has become clear with  “Rebuilding Trade and Cooperation with Europe”, though the mainstream media have been, as usual, exceedingly quiet about it. Our leadership on the whole has remained reticent, but now the time for reticence has passed. There was some indication of this at the spring conference – the European passages of Ed’s speech were highly optimistic and were loudly and enthusiastically applauded. (Not reported in the mainstream press of course – maybe Ed was counting on that.)

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Tom Arms

Observations of an expat: De Santis – Trump with Brains

By Tom Arms | Sat 27th May 2023 - 8:30 am

Governor Ron DeSantis is a clever version of Donald Jesus Trump. And because of that, he could be even more dangerous than the most dangerous person to ever occupy the White House.

Trump was fond of boasting that he was “the smartest US president ever.” Well, that was obviously another one of his lies, and there was a reason his academic records were kept under wrap.

DeSantis can legitimately lay claim to a well-stocked cranium. He graduated top of his class at Harvard and near the top at Yale Law School.

Trump spent the Vietnam War years doing his best to not acquire a venereal disease while sleeping with as many women as possible. “My own personal Vietnam,” he said.

DeSantis went almost straight from law school into the Navy’s Judge Advocate General’s office where he received a bronze star for his attachment to Navy SEAL teams in Iraq and Afghanistan. The only blot on an exemplary medal-strewn military career is a claim that he oversaw force-feeding at Guantanamo Bay.

DeSantis went straight from the navy into politics and in 2012 was elected to Congress where he became a founding member of the Freedom Caucus which can be described as the right-wing of the far right wing of the far right of the right wing of the Republican Party.

In 2016 Ron DeSantis was narrowly elected Governor of Florida and started putting his far-right views into practice. The teaching of critical race theory, gender identification and sexual orientation has been banned in state schools. Asylum seekers were flown to Martha’s Vineyard. Transgender girls were banned from competing in school sports. Corporation tax been lowered. Florida was one of the most open states during the pandemic. Abortions after six weeks were banned….

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Mark Platt

The Renters Reform Bill is a Lib Dem campaign opportunity

By Mark Platt | Tue 23rd May 2023 - 2:30 pm

2019 seems as very long time ago. That was when I last graced these pages, calling for our party to do more for renters, and specifically to push the then government to scrap Section 21 of the Housing Act, which enables tenants to be evicted without any reason.

Since then a lot of things have happened, globally, nationally, and in the party. Globally we have had Covid, an economic shock and a war in Europe. In the UK, as well as managing those, we had more changes of Tory leadership and front benchers than most homeowner’s house moves. In the …

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Tom Davies

Why we need to argue for constitutional reform

By Tom Davies | Tue 23rd May 2023 - 12:42 pm

The Liberal Democrats must advocate for the radical reform of the UK’s political system as a necessary condition for meeting the country’s diverse challenges.

Climate change, nuclear proliferation, inequality and decreasing living standards – the UK is awash with crises, threatening its place in the world and the welfare of people in our country and beyond.
Throughout our recent history, innovation has driven improvements in our lives. Individuals invented revolutionary technologies, while politicians championed visions to improve our overall welfare. Just as the UK’s rational and free society created the conditions for its industrial power, so did our world war leaders give us the post-war consensus, ensuring the security and freedom of millions.

So where’s the innovation now? Where are our visions?

The truth is that today’s challenges are far more complicated, interdependent, and costly. Tackling climate change requires a radical new approach to how we consider the natural world. Managing war and nuclear proliferation requires global cooperation. Inequality has many vectors and is deeply rooted among different groups and regions. Solving these problems requires more than innovation: they require political visions.

This is why it’s so tragic that our politicians lack substantial visions for our future.

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Simon Banks

The downside to a brilliant May 4th

By Simon Banks | Tue 23rd May 2023 - 8:52 am

The local elections produced brilliant results overall, considering we were defending seats won in a good year. But there is always a downside and we best progress when we consider the downside honestly and try to deal with it.

In five authorities – all in the North or North Midlands – we lost our sole or only two councillors: Bassetlaw, Bury, East Staffordshire, Sandwell (lost two) and Stockton on Tees. When one councillor is elected in such places, it’s usually a very hardworking community activist – though in one or two cases, the lone or two councillors may have been survivors of a once-sizeable group. We have broken through in Middlesbrough, but I couldn’t see any other cases where we went from none to one or more (though in Maldon, we’d gained our first in a by-election and then went up to five). So the outcome is: FEWER councils have Liberal Democrat councillors.

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Mark Valladares

Welcome to my day: 22 May 2023 – apologies for absence…

By Mark Valladares | Mon 22nd May 2023 - 7:22 am

I ought to start by apologising for the sense of editorial absence in recent weeks. In truth, I’ve struggled a bit for motivation but let’s see if we can get back on the horse and push on…

We won… and wasn’t it great?

So, the world of local government in England is a rather different place, as Liberal Democrat groups across the country have found themselves, expectedly or otherwise, in a position where they may, or may not, be part of administrations. Here in Suffolk, for example, the Conservatives lost control of Mid Suffolk, West Suffolk and East Suffolk, and Liberal Democrats are part of the mix in East Suffolk and Babergh. Here in Mid Suffolk, the Greens swept to power, taking twenty-four of the thirty-four seats to become the first majority Green administration in the Northern Hemisphere (and don’t we all know it?…).

And you might recognise the theory behind Green Party claims that the new Waveney Valley constituency is in play – after all, we tend to do the same thing after local government success. But, whilst we had an excellent set of results on 4 May, there are places where we are challenged by the Greens, and we need to give some thought to addressing where we’ve been pushed into third/fourth place by them.

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Caron Lindsay

Liberals must speak out against conservative attacks on divorce and same sex marriage

By Caron Lindsay | Sun 21st May 2023 - 6:30 pm

Last week, Conservative MP Danny Kruger made some controversial remarks about marriage at the awful National Conservative Conference in London. He said:

The second truth is that the normative family – held together by marriage, by mother and father sticking together for the sake of the children and the sake of their own parents and for the sake of themselves – this is the only possible basis for a safe and successful society.

“Marriage is not all about you. It’s not just a private arrangement. It’s a public act, by which you undertake to live for someone else, and for wider society; and wider society should recognise and reward this undertaking.

I guess it is good in a way that these comments are now considered controversial. It does show how far we have come in the past few decades. Christine Jardine, our equalities spokesperson said Mr Kruger’s comments

show just how utterly out of touch the Conservative Party is with modern day Britain.

Conservative MPs are happy to lecture families on how to live, while making life harder and harder for millions of families through the cost-of-living crisis and years of unfair tax rises.

East Midlands Lib Dem commentator Mathew Hulbert did a good interview on Peter Cardwell’s Talk TV programme:

Mathew said:

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Caron Lindsay

Memories of the 1983 General Election – Detention, a bonfire and the relief of victory

By Caron Lindsay | Sun 21st May 2023 - 4:30 pm

Like first love, your first General Election is a special and precious thing.

Mine was 1983 and this post is inspired by the earlier one about Simon Hughes’ 40th anniversary celebration.

It must be pretty much exactly 40 years since I first walked into Bob Maclennan’s campaign HQ in Wick to ask for a copy of the manifesto. It certainly was a Saturday afternoon about 3 weeks before the election. They didn’t have one, but it took them an impressively short time to persuade me to deliver leaflets for them.

But all didn’t go smoothly. There was a lady in her garden burning some rubbish. I put on my best and most charming smile, and handed the leaflet to her. She gave me an absolute death stare and tossed the leaflet on the burning pile. I later discovered that she was a leading light in the local Conservatives. I have to say, that if a young person from an opposition party handed me a leaflet, I’d be impressed that they were interested in politics and I’d be very nice to them.

Anyway, that didn’t put me off and I became an an enthusiastic part of the campaign team. At 15, I was obviously the youngest by a very long way. It was great to spend my first campaign in the company of Bob, his wife Helen, his agent Peter Kelly and Ken and Brenda Fraser who were my friend’s parents but became my friends. Bob’s staff Jeanne and Con were also up with him. They were an impressive bunch to learn from.

Campaigning was so different back in those days. We actually had to cut up the electoral register to make canvass cards.  I remember one soggy Friday when we all got on to this truck thing and drove around Wick, with posters and megaphones, generally annoying everyone.

For me, I had just finished my O Grade exams so didn’t have to be in school much during May unless I had an exam. However, about a week before the election on 9 June, I had permission to be out of school to compete in the Caithness Music Festival. My bit was finished earlier than I expected so Helen spirited me away to the other side of the county to go canvassing. Unfortunately, one of my teachers saw me get into her car, so I ended up with the only detention I ever had to do as a result. However, I had learned about how to canvass with warmth and the personal touch. If people weren’t in, Helen left them a personal note to come home to.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review – 21 May 2023

By Tom Arms | Sun 21st May 2023 - 11:30 am

Diamonds are sexy.

That is why they are at the top of the new list of sanctions against Russia. They also represent only $4 billion of Russia’s exports. This is a fraction of what Russia is earning in sales of oil, gas and weapons to countries thumbing their noses at Western sanctions.

That is why Japanese Premier Fumio Kishida has invited eight additional world leaders to the G7 Summit in Hiroshima this weekend. Gone are the days when the top seven industrialised countries could dictate terms to the rest of the world. If sanctions against Russia are going to work they have to be world sanctions, not just western sanctions.

The additional countries at the table this weekend are India, Brazil, Australia, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Comoros and Cook Islands. They have been invited either because they are major economies and political powers in their own right or represent a region of the world.

Most of them are sceptical about Western sanctions and some of them—such as India—are flagrantly flouting them and helping to fund the Russian war machine. India has also refused to condemn Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Vietnam has a long history of close relations with Moscow that go back to the French colonial wars and the Vietnam War. It still buys 60 percent of its weaponry from Russia. Indonesia is also a big buyer of Russian weaponry.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (aka Lula) projects himself as a friend to everyone. He has met with American, Russian and Chinese leaders; and wants to set up a “peace club” to resolve the Ukraine War.

China is also high on the G7 agenda, especially as regards the sabre rattling around Taiwan. Prime Minister Kishida wants the expanded G7 to make a clear statement in favour of Taiwan. This will be difficult given that almost all of the countries represented are heavily invested in the Chinese economy.

The world is so much more complicated than in 1975 when Giscard d’Estaing hosted the inaugural G7 summit at Rambouillet.

Syria has become a Narco state

And its new found position in the world is one of the reasons that President Bashar al-Assad is hugging Middle East leaders at the Arab League summit in Jeddah this weekend.

Syria and its leader were effectively expelled from the Arab League 12 years ago when Assad responded to the Arab Spring with bullets and chemical weapons. Since then 500,000 Syrians have died and 6 million have been displaced. Assad has managed to cling to power with the help of Iran and Russia.

But Assad needed money to pay for the weapons needed to fight his civil war. The factories and markets had been largely reduced to rubble. The farmers have fled their fields for refugee camps. So Assad turned to the manufacture of drugs.

More specifically, a synthetic amphetamine called captagon which is also known as fenethylline. The drug was first developed in the US in 1961 and given to soldiers in Vietnam to help their combat performance. But by the 1980s the dangerous side effects had become known and the amphetamine was banned.

The Syrian captagon is a super-charged version of the 1960s amphetamine. It is highly addictive and causes irreversible damage to the brain’s circuits that govern impulse control and judgement. It basically takes away the ability to reason or think rationally.

This was the perfect drug for ISIS who have bought in large quantities from Syrian dealers in order to turn their fighters into a cross between screaming banshees and mindless zombies.

In recent years the market in the drug has expanded from ISIS fighters to include upper the young social elite in Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Oman and Saudi Arabia. Recently a cache of 157 million tablets was found in shipment of flour bound for Saudi Arabia.

The Gulf States have been unable to stop their young people popping the Syrian-produced pills. So, they swallowed their pride and re-admitted Assad to the Arab fold in the hope that they can persuade him to shut down to the captagon labs.

Turkish elections

It looks bad for Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the second round of the Turkish elections on 28 May. Opinion polls predicted that he would top the three-man race last Sunday and possibly even win the 50 percent plus one vote needed to topple 20-year incumbent Tayyip Recep Erdogan in the first round.

The opinion polls were wrong. It was Erdogan who came out on top with 49.4 percent of the vote. Kilicdaroglu won 44.9 percent. Ultra nationalist Sinan Ogan secured five percent and his voters are more likely to back Erdogan than Kilicdaroglu in the second round.

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Tom Arms

Observations of an ex pat: US Debt crisis

By Tom Arms | Sat 20th May 2023 - 8:30 am

The US Congress and the Biden Administration are playing a dangerous game of chicken with the world economy.

Failure to raise the government’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling by early June would lead to a default on the US debt with car crash results for the US and world.

Respected economists Joseph Bruselas and Tuan Nguyen reckon that an “actual default” would lead to US unemployment soaring from 3.4 percent to 12 percent; inflation rising to over 10 percent and the American economy contracting by 11 percent.

Interest rates would rise affecting household and business borrowings. America’s credit rating would be downgraded which would hit the value of the dollar. And since 70 percent of the world’s trade is conducted in dollars, the cost of everything would increase everywhere.

The saying goes that when America sneezes the rest of the world catches cold. The US is the world’s biggest importer of foreign goods and many countries are heavily dependent on the US market for their economic survival.

America swallows 20.6 percent of British exports, 19.2 percent of the European Union; 18.2 percent of Japan’s; 17.9 percent of Indian exports and a whopping 73.25 percent of Canadian exported goods and services.

Any repercussions will almost also include less predictable political and security implications. Empty stomachs create political instability which in turn lead to simple solution promises from the far left or right. They also create openings for autocracies such as China, Russia and Iran.

On Wednesday Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy said there could be “an agreement in principle” by this weekend to raise the “or suspend” the debt ceiling. He added that this could clear the way for a vote in the House next week. President Biden meanwhile is cutting short an Asia-Pacific tour to return for more talks.

McCarthy’s assurances, however, are suspect because of his lack of control of far-right Republican congressmen. To start negotiations, McCarthy required a vote on a proposal that would raise the debt ceiling by $1.5 trillion contingent on federal government savings of $4.8 trillion. It passed by the narrowest of margins: 217 to 215 votes. Four Republican congressmen voted against and have made it clear that if McCarthy tries to force through anything which does not include big cuts in welfare spending then they will vote him out of the Speaker’s chair and force a default.

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Christine Jardine MP

Tell your MP why we need Equal Votes for Westminster

By Christine Jardine MP | Thu 18th May 2023 - 4:05 pm

In a democracy, we expect the government to represent the will of the people. We believe that every citizen has an equal right to participate in the democratic process, and that every vote should count equally. But the reality is that Westminster’s distortive electoral system means our democracy is failing to live up to these fundamental principles.

Save Wednesday 24 May as a key date in the march to achieving equal votes for UK General Elections. That’s when Sort The System – your chance to meet and tell your MP why they should back voting reform – is taking place.

Sort The System is a national action day put together by reform ally organisations, including Make Votes Matter, the Electoral Reform Society and Unlock Democracy. Liberal Democrats for Electoral Reform are backing it, as are pro-reform Labour groups and the Greens.

For us Liberal Democrats, it’s a huge opportunity – maybe our best before the next General Election – to put electoral reform firmly on the agenda.

A proportional system that empowers voters, delivers parliaments that are representative of the people, and keeps government in check is crucial to fixing our broken politics and underpins the positive change we need to see. As longstanding leaders in campaigning for electoral reform, PR must be part of our party’s overall promise to the British people. Part of what we stand for; what makes us different.

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Michal Siewniak

Discovering Belfast

By Michal Siewniak | Thu 18th May 2023 - 12:59 pm

There are sometimes moments in life, which are not easy to describe or define. Although some of these moments leave a permanent trace in our lives, it is hard to express our views, feelings and “internal transformation”. We might have read several books in relation to a particular topic, however seeing something in reality often changes our perspective or perceptions of places and/ or people.

I am convinced that visiting Belfast and Northern Ireland (13th – 14th May) will stay with me for many months. Belfast has a great vibe; good Universities, plenty of international students, many parks, a lovely city centre or incredibly powerful Crumlin Road Gaol Museum. The capital city of Northern Ireland is quite very special and unique.

I thought I “knew Belfast”. Reading a few books about the history of Northern Ireland was pretty informative, however driving through certain parts of Belfast was breath-taking. I felt stunned and speechless on quite a few occasions. On the way to Newcastle and County Down, I noticed small villages, literally next to each other, full of either British or Irish flags. “Political and historical separation” was strongly felt during our trip. In many ways, I was lucky as I was visiting Northern Ireland a week or so after the coronation of Charles III and ahead of the Local Elections.

Belfast itself was spectacular. Murals, paintings, Peace Wall, barracks are only a few examples of a “divided city”. Although there are clear signs of pain and suffering of this lovely place and its people, the extraordinary efforts to find a peaceful solution in most challenging circumstances are equally, if not more, powerful. Northern Ireland went through so much. The healing hasn’t ended but I hope that the process of reconciliation and growth will continue to positively impact many lives.

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Peter Wrigley

Be Prepared

By Peter Wrigley | Thu 18th May 2023 - 10:29 am

Liberal Democrats did well in the local elections and talk of our holding the balance in the next parliament is in the air.

In this article I don’t wish to argue for or against becoming a partner in the next government, or supporting it with confidence and supply, or commenting from the side-lines.  My purpose is to urge the party to prepare for the possibility and suggest some ground rules which might avoid the disappointments (to put it mildly) which followed from the 2010 arrangement.

They are:

  1. Whatever is offered, and by whom, we should make it clear that we will take

…

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Ruth Bright

What are the Police for?

By Ruth Bright | Wed 17th May 2023 - 11:55 am

Summer 1994

Camberwell. A small 20-something woman with long dark hair is ambling along a side street. Sixties’ tower blocks on one side; red brick low rise on the other.  She has a brown and black bag slung over her shoulder. She is enjoying a bag of jelly tots as she goes and is weighed down by a heavy white plastic bag containing her council paperwork.

A tall 30-something male with dark hair and translucent pale skin hovers nearby. Suddenly he picks up speed, runs at the woman, grabs the bag off her shoulder. She rather lamely shouts: “Oh no!” and he, not very originally, cries out: “Oh yes!” A grubby old russet Ford fiesta appears from nowhere, he jumps into it and driver and thief speed off into the South London sunshine.

Well of course gentle reader, the woman was me. And what happened next? The Met were absolutely brilliant. A local shopkeeper raised the alarm (as they say), the police took a statement.  I later identified the man at Brixton Police Station. He confessed to a series of muggings and got 7 years. It was an exemplary piece of policing, operating with lightning speed and with descriptions only. No CCTV. No witnesses. I bounced back very quickly. Partly I suppose because I was young; but mainly because the Police were so efficient. There was no pastoral care offered in those days. I wasn’t bothered, just relieved that the mugger would not do the same to anyone else for a while. What’s more. I felt safe.

You know what comes next don’t you?

Spring 2023

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National conservatism – the road to isolationism

By Jed Walker | Wed 17th May 2023 - 10:25 am

So the National Conservatism Conference 2023 has kicked off in London. For three days our capital will play host to a procession of right-wing, populist speakers ranging from government ministers to climate change deniers. 

Even before the event began, it was mired in controversy. Snippets of the speech to be given by the Home Secretary leaked, with suggestions she would suggest training our own fruit pickers would resolve some of Britain’s economic woes, and left-wing media organisations reported being barred from attending. OpenDemocracy reports that they, along with others, were denied passes to the conference due to space and availability, but claim there were empty seats at the conference today and that other less progressive media outlets were awarded passes after applying just days before the event.

But what a first day. We started with the chairman, Christopher DeMuth, telling the audience that he had been communing with the spirit of Margaret Thatcher who was, he was happy to report, “totally on board”. Perhaps that is a case of ‘enough said’.

It is hardly surprising to anyone, I would imagine, to hear Jacob Rees-Mogg align himself with the politics of isolation. He has defined national conservatism as “national political ideology by its nature in contradistinction to liberalism or socialism, which since their beginnings have had internationalist ambitions and have attempted to impose similar or identical structures on different nations”.

What was perhaps more surprising was his acknowledgment that the introduction of Voter ID rules was in fact a way for the Conservative Party to gain an electoral boost. “Parties that try and gerrymander end up finding their clever scheme comes back to bite them – as dare I say we found by insisting on voter ID for elections,” he said (albeit mis-using the term gerrymandering, which really relates to what Americans would call re-districting and we call boundary changes).

He went on to say: “We found the people who didn’t have ID were elderly and they by and large voted Conservative, so we made it hard for our own voters and we upset a system that worked perfectly well.” I have to disagree with the former minister here. There has been no conclusive examination of the data – most of which is still only slowly coming in – to suggest the majority of those who didn’t vote because of Voter ID issues were elderly. Rees-Mogg has also tried to say he was not massively in favour of the legislation, leading to a plethora of shared videos on social media showing him strongly arguing in support of the proposed changes on the floor of the House of Commons. 

Try as he might, to suggest the Tory losses in this months local elections were due to Voter ID issues is folly. The public turned out in droves to reject a continuation of Conservative ideology at local level; perhaps in protest at the national party, but they turned out all the same. The swing against the party was despite the new Voter ID legislation, not because of it. 

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Daniel Stylianou

The continuing threat to democracies

By Daniel Stylianou | Sun 14th May 2023 - 12:00 pm

I wrote an article earlier this week about the hope for renewed democracy in Turkey should the opposition leader – Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu – be successful in the upcoming Presidential elections. But democracy continues to come under threat across the globe, as more countries seem to be sliding down the steep path to dictatorship and the abolition of civil liberties and human rights.

Human Rights Watch has today published an article focusing on the state of affairs in Tunisia. The authorities have placed a further 17 current or former members of Ennahda, the largest opposition party in the country, in prison. That means that, as of today, over 30 political figures who are critical of President Kais Saied are behind bars accused of “conspiring against state security”. According to Human Rights Watch, the detainees include former ministers, the party President, two vice presidents and the former Speaker of Parliament. The Tunisian authorities have simultaneously shut Ennahda’s offices across the country.

In Myanmar, the military has used a “thermobaric” munition – designed to cause the maximum amount of casualties – on the village of Pa Zi Gyi in response to an opposition-controlled administrative office being opened. The blast was followed by helicopter assaults using cannons, grenades and rockets as innocent civilians tried to flee. A resident confirmed that the anti-junta People’s Defence Forces was present at the opening, but that the office was for tax filing, town meetings and judicial events, not for military purposes.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 14th May 2023 - 8:55 am

Pakistan

Pakistan is a nuclear power with an estimated 165 nuclear warheads and bombers and missiles to deliver them. This is important to remember as the country slides into political, economic and social chaos. Also remember that Pashtos are the second largest ethnic group in Pakistan (18 percent) and the largest (42 percent) in neighbouring Islamic fundamentalist Afghanistan.

Mustn’t forget either that Pakistan’s Pashto community are supporters of the Taliban and that Al Qaeeda and ISIS are re-establishing bases in that benighted and dangerously unstable Afghanistan. Then there is also the fact there have been 434 terrorist attacks in Pakistan this year, the majority by Islamic fundamentalists with links to groups based in on the western side of the Hindu Kush.

Another concern is that China holds 30 percent of Pakistan’s $100 billion debt. The country’s foreign reserves have virtually disappeared to pay for oil imports. General inflation is running at 34 percent and food prices are soaring at an estimated 50 percent.

Finally, Pakistan’s army and intelligence community pull the country’s political strings. Politicians cannot stay in office without their support. Which is big part of Imran Khan’s problems.

He had the military’s support when he became prime minister in 2018 at the head of a coalition. But the former international cricket star was the wrong person to head a coalition. Khan is used to giving orders rather than compromising, and was soon publicly attacking his coalition partners. But the final straw came when he began toying with the idea of curbing the power of the military.

Last April, Khan lost a parliamentary vote of no confidence. He rejected it and has refused to resign. In response the succeeding government has charged him with more than 100 offenses ranging from fraud to blasphemy. It should be said that this is standard political practice in Pakistan. The successor prime minister to Khan – Shehbaz Shaif – was released on bail for corruption charges to enable him to lead the government.

The 232 million Pakistanis have meanwhile split between pro and anti-Imran Khan Factions with the military leading the anti-faction. Riots and demonstrations have become a daily feature of life in Pakistan.

Ukraine

The much anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive remains much anticipated. The promised 230 Western tanks have arrived as well as 1,500 armoured vehicles. An estimated 60,000 Ukrainian troops appear to be ready to attack. The assault could literally be launched any day.

The most likely battle site is in the south around Kherson. A strike there could sever the land bridge between the Russian forces in Crimea and the Donbas Region.  The problem with that plan is that the Russians have constructed one of the most elaborate defensive systems ever seen. The Ukrainians could end up hurling themselves against a 160 mile long Russian brick wall off trenches, mines, anti-tank traps and razor wire.

They could suffer the same fate that has befallen the Russian Wagner Group in their months’ long attempt to capture Bakhmut. Russians casualties in Bakhmut are estimated by Western intelligence to be as high 60,000 with 20,000 of them being fatal. The town has been reduced to an unrecognisable pile of rubble.

Wagner head Yevgeny Prigorzhin blames the failure of his prison-recruited force on the official military’s refusal to provide his convicts with enough ammunition. He has even released an expletive-laden diatribe attacking Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the head of the armed forces, Valery Gerasimov.

Prigorzhin is probably right. The Russians are reported to be low on ammunition and the official military establishment wants to husband its resources for the coming Ukrainian counter offensive. But the row between the Wagner Group exposes a deep division and absence of a clear command structure within the Russian military establishment. This can only benefit the Ukrainians when they finally launch their much anticipated assault.

Northern Ireland

There was really nothing new in the substance of Biden’s remarks this week about Northern Ireland. What was new and unfortunate was the language he used.

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Caron Lindsay

Want to know who Ed Davey would snog, marry and avoid?

By Caron Lindsay | Sat 13th May 2023 - 11:55 am

Ed Davey is heading to Edinburgh on Saturday 12th August to take part in the For the Many Podcast with Iain Dale and former Labour Home Secretary Jacqui Smith. Tickets, which cost £17, are selling fast, so don’t miss your chance by snapping them up here.

I hope he knows what he is letting himself in for as these shows can be quite the wild ride with a generous helping of smut and comedy alongside the politics. There’s usually a bit of snog, marry, avoid and in the most recent live show, outgoing Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price was asked which politicians he would like to see on Naked Attraction. There are some questions to which “none” is the only acceptable answer. To be fair, the live shows are usually less lurid than the weekly episodes, the audience providing a reminder that someone else is actually listening.

I reckon our Ed will handle himself pretty well as long as he realises that there are few boundaries. He is, I think, much better at these sorts of informal events than at the big set piece speeches.

For the Many has been going since 2017 and, if my calculations are correct, will hit its 400th episode during its Edinburgh run. I started listening to it by accident just before Christmas last year and was surprised at how much I enjoyed it.

Since, I’ve gone back to listen to some of the episodes covering Brexit, Covid and the ongoing Tory psychodrama. As you would expect, Lib Dems don’t usually get the credit we deserve in their analysis so I generally fall asleep during the serious bits and wake up in fits of rib-breaking laughter at some of the outrageous filth they come out with.

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Caron Lindsay

Lib Dems challenge coronation arrests

By Caron Lindsay | Sat 13th May 2023 - 10:25 am

Back in the 1930s, there was a deep suspicion amongst courtiers of broadcasting royal events on the radio. They worried that the events would be demeaned by men listening to them in public houses with their hats on. Ninety years on, these courtiers would have been utterly disgusted at the prospect of women watching last Saturday’s coronation (as I did) on their phones on sunbeds in Spain, one pina colada to the good.

I hadn’t intended to watch any of it while I was away on my first ever girls’ holiday. Truth be told, I’d had trouble even mustering up indifference. However, one of our party had a friend participating and she wanted to see if she could spot him.

So I managed to marvel at some of the proceedings, including Penny Mordaunt’s impressive sword-holding while dressed as every Tory Boy’s Thatcherite fantasy.

However much I like the spectacle, I am far from convinced that a hereditary monarchy, even one with few powers, is the best way for our country to be governed. I am not too exercised by the question, though, as there are many more pressing things – including giving people the Parliament they ask for – that need to be done.

I totally get why protesters from the organisation Republic might want to make their point by protesting in the run up to the coronation. They have every right to do so in a democratic society. Yet heavy handed action by the Police saw protesters, and in one case a royal fan who was there to enjoy the day, arrested and deprived of their liberty for hours.  A retrospective expression of regret by the Police is just not good enough.

The events showed the flaws in the recently passed Public Order Act, exactly as our people in Parliament had warned as it was debated.

As you would expect, Lib Dems have been highly critical of the arrests. Alistair Carmichael, our Home Affairs spokesperson, said on Twitter:

Tim Farron said that tolerating protest would be the “most utterly British thing imaginable:

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Tom Arms

Observations of an expat: Trump

By Tom Arms | Sat 13th May 2023 - 8:58 am

Americans are divided as to whether this has been a good, bad or pretty much the same as always week for Donald Trump.

The ex-president is now legally stigmatised as a sex abuser. Journalist E. Jean Carroll also managed to legally out him as a serial liar. Of course, most people have for years regarded Trump as a lying sex pest, but it is another matter having it unanimously confirmed by a courtroom jury of your peers.

The Trump sex abuse trial was quickly followed by a CNN-organised town hall meeting in New Hampshire where the former president continued to defame Ms Carroll (which may end up costing him even more money). He also refused to back Ukraine and said he would end the war in 24 hours; plunge the world into economic chaos rather than raise the US debt ceiling; would pardon most of the January 6 Capitol Hill rioters and, of course, claimed that he won the 2020 presidential election race.

Anyone who disagrees with him continues to be a nasty, lying peddler of fake news.

So what impact will all the above have on Trump’s bid for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination and a possible Trump-Biden re-run in 2024. I put that and several other questions to my podcast co-host Lockwood Phillips. You can listen to his replies on TransAtlantic Riff at Spotify.com.

Lockwood, I should add is a Trump-supporting conservative Republican. He reckoned that this week’s events will have no impact on Trump’s election chances. His base and position within the Republican Party is secure and Biden’s unpopularity will sweep the ex-president back into the White House.

Lockwood is representative of a Trump supp0rter. But not all conservative Americans. Others whom I canvassed were adamant that they voted for him in the past but would never cast their ballot for him again.

One senior Trump-appointed official told me: “Trump will be toast by the time the primaries actually take place… still more legal shoes will drop…. He is a dead man walking.”

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Mark Pack

Mark Pack’s May report – Another great success

By Mark Pack | Thu 11th May 2023 - 9:59 am

It’s vital to learn from failures. But it’s much more fun to learn from successes. So there is a lot of fun to be had in learning the lessons for the Liberal Democrats from the latest local elections.

Let’s summarise those successes with three numbers:

  • +407 seats – the party’s second biggest gain in raw seats since the mid-1990s.
  • +12 councils – taking the number of Lib Dem majority councils to its highest for at least 18 years.
  • 20% equivalent national share – the highest on this BBC measure since going into coalition in 2010. (The alternative NEV measure was the joint best since 2010.)

However, it’s important to remember that not everyone who hoped to win did so. For colleagues who were seeking election but didn’t make it, it can be even tougher when all around people are celebrating. If you, or someone close to you, is in that position, my commiserations and thanks for all you’ve done.

Five in a row

Perhaps the most important element of the local election results is one that has been mostly overlooked. It’s that the Lib Dems have now made it five rounds of local elections in a row at which we’ve made net gains. You have to go back to 2002-6 for the last time we did that.

Another way of looking at our progress is the cumulative gains and losses so far in May elections during this Parliament:

  • Lib Dems +637
  • Greens +416
  • Labour +318
  • Conservatives -1,309

That’s the sort of sustained progress which has been an important part of the party’s strategy in this Parliament: investing in our grassroots campaigning support, for both stronger and weaker areas, concentrating on target seats at election time but expanding our areas of strength as we do. Sustained grassroots growth is what will make us a successful national party.

The most dramatic progress was against the Conservatives, and as in 2019 once again our vote share did best the more an area had voted Remain. In areas that voted Remain in 2016, our vote share was up nearly 1.5 points on average, though in areas that voted 60% or more Leave in 2016, our vote share was down just under a point.

But in addition, many groups primarily up against Labour managed to grow, including us becoming the official opposition on Sunderland Council.

Overall, in the places with zero or one Lib Dem council seat up for election this time, we made a net 21 gains, going from 32 councillors in these councils to 53. Four times as many of these smaller places went forward as went back and we went up in every region.

Map of Lib Dem seat gains in May 2023 local elections

 

Regional breakdown of seat changes in May 2023 local elections

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Daniel Stylianou

The fight for Turkey’s soul

By Daniel Stylianou | Wed 10th May 2023 - 1:19 pm

He hasn’t been successful throughout his career. A former civil servant and ex-accountant, his political party has lost every general election since he became their leader in 2010. And yet, despite this, millions of Turks now look to him to save their country from their autocratic President and fulfil his promise to restore democracy to their country.

He is, of course, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the Republican People’s Party and head of the National Alliance. Comprised of six opposition parties, many hope the National Alliance will finally unseat incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, ending his grip on power.

In four days Turks will go to the polls in the 2023 Presidential Elections. It is estimated over 60 million Turks will cast their vote and elect a President for a new five year term. The opposition leader has been cast in the role of Turkey’s saviour; his signature hand gesture is to hold them in the shape of a heart, and he professes to live as ordinary Turks do (he has claimed he will eschew living in the presidential palace if elected).

Having lost every general election since elected as leader of the CHP, it is perhaps surprising that Kılıçdaroğlu has become the frontrunner to defeat Erdoğan. But actions speak loudly, and Kılıçdaroğlu has campaigned tirelessly to restore democracy to a country on the steep, dangerous slope towards complete autocracy. In 2017, a CHP politician and member of the Turkish parliament was sentenced to 25 years in prison, accused of leaking state secrets. Kılıçdaroğlu organised a 28-mile walk from Ankara to Istanbul in response – the “Justice March” – which, despite being attacked with stones and manure, carried their peaceful mark over 25 days to end with a rally in Maltepe.

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Bernard Aris

Two royal festive outings, the right to protest and activist minorities

By Bernard Aris | Tue 9th May 2023 - 6:00 pm

First of all: it was a coincidence, but it must have been galling to Putin that both the Queens burial and the crowning of Charles III were two occasions that the British, geopolitical competitors of Russia since the era of the Eurasian “Great Game” around China, Afghanistan and Persia, presented the world with two brilliant military displays of discipline, high-end marching ability, historical uniforms, and with a plethora of Commonwealth troops joining in.

By contrast, the May 9th military parades for Russia’s VE Day over the “Nazis”, since 1945 one of the main manifestations of Soviet/Russian military might, have been toned down because after the fake “two slow drones attacking the Kremlin”-charade, Russia pretends that NATO infiltrators are attacking the Kremlin, citadel of Moscow, and screams that “they” want to kill Putin (who in reality seldom visits the Kremlin itself anyway; see: Russian defector sheds light on Putin paranoia and his secret train network | Vladimir Putin | The Guardian ).

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