Category Archives: Op-eds

Mark Valladares

Welcome to my day: 15 August 2022 – in Tufton Street we Trus(s)t?

By Mark Valladares | Mon 15th August 2022 - 7:45 am

The contest for the leadership of the Conservative Party and, thus, Prime Minister, took more turns for the worse this week. Whilst Rishi Sunak desperately tries to convince ageing members of his party that he can be as reactionary as the next (wo)man, Liz Truss is demonstrating that, at heart, she has the instincts of a robotic magpie programmed by the denizens of Tufton Street.

Having suggested last week that most of the Civil Service should be sacked and the rest moved out of London, whilst the rest of the public sector should expect pay cuts, it didn’t get any better this week. First, she suggested that support payments to help those facing fuel poverty were a low priority compared to tax cuts. It seemed that she had been misrepresented (again). And then, the Civil Service was described as “woke verging on anti-Semitic” – she really doesn’t like them, does she?

I look forward to her relationship with the Civil Service going forward…

Mind you, given that there’s very little evidence that we have a functioning government anyway, the idea that whichever one of them wins might do something (anything) might be progress of a sort. Of course, their first task will be to appoint a new Cabinet and ministers, which won’t be easy. And time is relentlessly pushing on, with the energy cap increase to be announced in just eleven days and due to come into effect on 1 October.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 14th August 2022 - 8:30 am

A boost for the Ukrainians – and a problem

The successful missile attack on the Russian arms depot on the Crimean Peninsula was a major boost for the Ukrainians. It may also have created a major problem.

So far the Ukrainians have refrained from attacking Russian territory. This is a bit like fighting with one hand tied behind the back, but they have been told by their NATO quartermasters to restrain themselves due to a fear of provoking an escalation that would result in NATO and Russian troops facing each other in a possible World War Three scenario.

Donetsk and Luhansk are not Russian territory. They are—according to the Russians—independent sovereign republics which have seceded from Ukraine with Russian help. Crimea, however, is a different kettle of fish. The Russians annexed it in 2014. It matters not that only 14 countries have recognised the annexation. Russia regards Crimea as Russian and therefore the attack was on Russian territory.

Interestingly enough, the Ukrainian government is refusing to take credit for the attack. It is not denying responsibility either.

Meanwhile concern is growing for the safety of the Zapororizhzia nuclear power plant. The Russians continue to use the plant as a base from which to launch artillery and missile barrages and there are reports that technicians at the plant are being forced to work at gunpoint. The International Atomic Energy Agency is still trying—unsuccessfully–to gain access to conduct safety inspections and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has called for a demilitarised zone around the plant.

How are sanctions affecting Russia?

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Tom Arms

Observations of an ex-pat – Law vs Politics

By Tom Arms | Sat 13th August 2022 - 8:30 am

The United States is facing a major question: Does political support trump the rule of law?

There is no doubt that Donald Trump has political support from a large proportion of the American population. He is virtually a shoe-in for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

Whether or not he is guilty of one of any number of crimes is immaterial to his base of supporters. Trump represents small government libertarian-minded conservative America. The values that he has come to embody are seen as more important than any number of words in any number of law books.

He has the support “of his people” and that lifts Trump to the far edge of the reach of the long arm of the law. Any attempt to argue otherwise, or to enforce the law, is jackboot Nazism and an establishment conspiracy to thwart the will of the people.

Given that many of Trump’s people are gun-toting Second Amendmenters, using the law against the former president risks the serious danger of violence.

Attorney General Merrick Garland is all too aware of the need to balance political reality with the rule of law. Donald Trump is a special case. No person is above the law, but realpolitik means that some people are on its edges. If the Department of Justice—or anyone else—is going to take any kind of legal action against the former president then it must be totally convinced of his guilt well beyond a reasonable doubt– and then some.

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North Shropshire Lib Dem election HQ saved from flames

By Andy Boddington | Fri 12th August 2022 - 9:36 am

Phew! What a scorcher! That’s a phrase we have rarely heard in the UK since 1976. Here in Shropshire, the Shropshire Star reported yesterday seven combine harvester fires over the last week. There have been a at least a couple of more fires since, including at Soulton Hall.

Soulton Hall has a particular place in the history of the Lib Dems and our current fightback against the Tories. After the enforced resignation of Owen Paterson amid a typical Tory scandal, Soulton Hall became the base for Helen Morgan’s successful campaign to replace him.

Two days ago, farmer and Lib Dem supporter Tim Ashton was combining a wheat field. The combine harvester developed problems. Tim quickly realised that quenching the subsequent fire was “like using a thimble to bale an ocean”. The fire was at risk of spreading to the nearby historic Soulton Hall. Working with a neighbouring farmer, a firebreak was created and Shropshire Fire & Rescue arrived to dowse down the wreckage. A small area of crop was lost along with the combine but Soulton Hall and part of Lib Dem history was saved.

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Truss looks to be the winning loser in Cheltenham races

By Andy Boddington | Fri 12th August 2022 - 8:31 am

Max Wilkinson, who wrote earlier today on LDV about the Cheltenham navel gazing, features in today’s Guardian. Political correspondent Peter Walker wrote:

“Sitting in a town centre pub converted from an imposing former courthouse, Max Wilkinson, a local Liberal Democrat councillor who competed against Chalk in 2019 and will also fight the next election, says the imminent change of leader has not overly changed voter sentiment…

In 2019, the incumbent Tory MP, the former solicitor general Alex Chalk, held off the Liberal Democrats by just 981 votes, and one local Conservative conceded they expect to lose the seat by 5,000-plus votes next time.”

That’s positive news but the tortuous leadership election must end first. (Please let it end soon!)

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Max Wilkinson

Navel-gazing Tories arrive in Cheltenham (or was it Derbyshire?)

By Max Wilkinson | Fri 12th August 2022 - 6:53 am

It was a night that confirmed what many people already thought.  For those of us on the outside, it’s now clear that the Conservative party leadership is out of ideas.  In fact, the boldest thinking we heard during the debate at Cheltenham Racecourse last night (Thurs) was when Liz Truss suggested Cheltenham was in Derbyshire.

You’d think that in this moment of national crisis, the two candidates would have something new to say.  Alas, there was very little to help those worried about the cost of living during the debate.  If only they had the foresight to pursue bold policy ideas to solve the looming energy bills crisis, like Ed Davey’s call for the October energy price rise to be cancelled earlier this week.  As for the NHS: Sunak wants to charge people for missing appointments. Truss wants to ‘get a grip’ of waiting times.  That won’t bring much comfort to people here, who report long ambulance waiting times and being sent to Malvern for NHS dentistry.

In Cheltenham, local Lib Dems are making a difference.  After our cost-of-living emergency declaration, we’ve put £60,000 aside to support food banks for the next few months.  We’re also investing £180 million in affordable homes and our first carbon neutral development is on the way – helping to drastically lower energy bills for residents.  Our Golden Valley project will help build on the success of our blossoming cyber security industry.  If only that sort of vision was matched in the Conservative Party’s thinking on the NHS and cost of living.

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Lord William Wallace

The right-wing myth of Britain’s ‘liberal elite’

By Lord William Wallace | Thu 11th August 2022 - 7:24 pm

Warming up the audience at the Darlington hustings for the Conservative leadership on August 9th, Tom Newton Dunn as compere asked if Boris Johnson had been responsible for his own misfortune. Cries of ‘the media’ came back; and Liz Truss commented ‘Who am I to disagree with this excellent audience?’

Conservative activists thus showed their acceptance of the conspiratorial myth that enables Liz Truss to present herself as an insurgent against a dominant establishment. The idea of a dominant liberal elite, entrenched in the BBC, the civil service, universities and state schools, extending into the ‘lefty lawyers’ in the courts and the gatekeepers of cultural institutions and prizes, pops up regularly in Conservative speeches, Telegraph Op-Eds, and justifications for political reforms by Cabinet ministers. David Frost, now accepted by many on the hard right as an intellectual authority, has just published a paper for Policy Exchange (which describes itself as ‘Britain’s leading think tank) on ‘sustaining the Brexit Revolt’ which attributes the failure to make greater progress in breaking with collectivism and Europe since 2017 to the resistance of this entrenched elite – rather than the divisions within his adopted Conservative Party, or hard evidence of the irrationality of what they aimed to achieve.

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NewsHound

Davey: Conservative candidates in parallel universe on cost of living crisis

By NewsHound | Thu 11th August 2022 - 11:36 am

Writing in the Express today, Ed Davey called for parliament to be recalled to pass legislation to halt the increase in energy prices that are driving much of the cost of living crisis. With food prices rising and set to rise further, the Lib Dems are calling for a broader package. Davey said we should double the Warm Homes Discount and extend it to more people. Double the Winter Fuel Allowance to give 11 million pensioners up to £600 off their bills. Raise Universal Credit by £20 a week. And thinking longer term, he says the government should begin an emergency home insulation programme, starting with homes in or at risk of fuel poverty.

Energy bills soaring, inflation soaring, interest rates soaring, and as the cost-of-living crisis turns into a cost-of-living catastrophe our government is that of a zombie, limping on – helping no one.

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Ian Sollom

Forget cutting VAT: social tariffs would help tackle the cost-of-living crisis

By Ian Sollom | Mon 8th August 2022 - 3:51 pm

The cost-of-living crisis should be the number one priority for all political parties this summer. With the energy price cap due to rise by an eye watering 70%, on top of the 54% rise earlier this year, a cruel winter beckons, one that for some, make no mistake, will be fatal.

Martin Lewis, the Money Saving Expert, has spent the summer pleading fruitlessly for solutions from government. Meanwhile, Labour has chosen to squander their time arguing about whether the Shadow Cabinet should join the picket lines of those on strike.

There is a huge space for the Liberal Democrats to propose powerful, radical policy that will make a real difference to those that need it most.

A temporary cut in VAT, to be debated at Autumn Conference as our headline solution, is not that policy.

I’m no great fan of VAT, but timing is everything and the timing of this cut is wrong. On straightforward grounds of fairness, to give away the most to those who already have the most – as cutting a tax on spending would boil down to – is simply perverse right now. Moreover, both the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Institute for Government warn strongly against the policy, citing the prolonged inflation and interest rate rises that will likely result as serious long-term risks for the economy and households.

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Mark Argent

Choosing Johnson’s successor: a Tory attack on our democracy?

By Mark Argent | Mon 8th August 2022 - 10:38 am

The problem with the present Tory leadership contest is that it looks worryingly like a presidential campaign. We’ve seen televised debates among the contenders, news of them, their campaigns, promises and policies. It sounds as if the winner will have a mandate to take the country in a new direction, though the voters are just the 0.3% of the population who happen to be members of the Conservative Party. Where is the public outcry?

This is part of a general trend to move power from Parliament to No.10 which has accelerated since the referendum. It includes the illegal prorogation of parliament in 2019, the use of “Henry VIII” powers to sideline parliament in the massive task of replacing EU-derived legislation and Johnson’s repeated bendings of the ministerial code.

These things have consequences:

  • It risks increasing alienation from politics. “First past the post” means there are many parts of the country where people feel their vote doesn’t matter. The Tories have found a way to make this much worse. Brexit might already be a consequence of this because of the people who voted Leave out of frustration at being ignored.
  • It pushes things to the extremes. Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss need to appeal only to their own party rather than connecting with the rest of the country. That’s particularly serious as there’s now more support for Brexit in the Conservative party than there in the country. EU-bashing and Brexit might help one of them get elected, but they are not in the national interest.
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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 7th August 2022 - 8:30 am

The nuclear reactor we should be worried about

Forget about Chernobyl. That was small fry worry. Focus instead on the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Zaporizhzhia  supplies half of Ukraine’s nuclear-generated electricity; is next door to the city of Enerhodar (pre-war population of 53,000) and sits alongside the Dnieper River which supplies the drinking water for millions in southeastern Ukraine and Crimea.

The nuclear facility was captured by Russia on 4 March during the Battle of Enerhodar. The power plant is being kept in operation with Ukrainian workers retained by the occupying Russians. But Putin’s forces have—according to US and Ukrainian sources—started using plant precincts as a base for artillery barrages.

The Ukrainians are firing back. On top of that, no one from the UN oversight organisation the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is making the regular visits that insure that all safety measures and checks are being followed. IAEA director Rafael Grossi this week told Associated Press “You have a catalogue of things happening that should never happen in a nuclear power plant.” Mr. Grossi is trying to negotiate access to Zaporizhzhia but to do that will require his inspectors passing through both Ukrainian and Russian lines. This is extremely dangerous for the inspectors and inordinately difficult to arrange.

 The fight to be UK Prime Minister

The British election campaign for the leadership of the Conservative Party and the Premiership of the country this week slipped into high farce and sailed into choppy constitutional waters. Starting with the farce, favourite Liz Truss announced that she would cut public sector pay by about $10 billion by reducing the wages of out of London public sector workers.

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Caron Lindsay

Lib Dems highlight Home Office incompetence which leads to £70 million compensation payments

By Caron Lindsay | Fri 5th August 2022 - 1:22 pm

Good work by Alistair Carmichael and the Lib Dem researchers and press team in working out and highlighting that the Home Office paid out £70 million in compensation to people it has wronged in the past year. They have calculated that this would amount to an extra 1700 Police officers who could have been employed.

That’s a big number but behind it are people whose lives were ruined, damaged, who were put through absolute hell by Home Office injustice and incompetence. That is unforgivable.

From the Guardian:

The payouts, highlighted by the Liberal Democrats, are believed to be the highest amount for

…

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Caron Lindsay

Lib Dems comment on dire economic news – but we need to say more

By Caron Lindsay | Fri 5th August 2022 - 9:41 am

This week has had more than its fair share of dire economic news. The prospect of a deep, prolonged recession at a time of soaring prices means that people on the lowest incomes are really going to suffer. Let’s think about what that looks like. It means that people on the lowest incomes will simply not be able to afford the basics that they need to survive. If they don’t face the prospect of losing their home, heating it to an adequate level will be a challenge.  Putting food on the table will be tough.  Even if they just manage to get by, an unexpected car repair bill, or a washing machine breakdown, could be problems that they can’t cope with. It is quite likely that we will see levels of poverty and suffering that we thought were gone for good.

It’s the most terrifying economic landscape since 2008. And with recession comes the prospect of people losing their jobs. We didn’t have energy and living costs on a steep upward curve then.

I remember only too well the recession of the 1980s. That ITN Jobs round up every Friday showing so many jobs being lost every week. Soaring unemployment as, one by one, our key manufacturing industries crumbled.  Remember UB40’s One in Ten?

At that point though the welfare state met more of your living costs if you lost your job. You at least had some chance of getting by. And students could get help with Housing Benefit and could sign on during the long Summer holiday if they couldn’t get a job. Now, benefits are less generous, and woe betide you if you dared have more than two children since 2017 because you won’t be able to claim any Universal Credit for them.

During the 90s recession, I worked in the civil courts in England and it was heartbreaking to see the huge rise in both mortgage and rent possession cases. Each one of those meant that someone was in danger of losing their homes, and many did.

As interest rates rise, so do mortgages. Already high private sector rents are likely to increase as landlords pay more on their buy to let mortgages.

It all seemed terrible back then, but now the prospects and the pressures on incomes are even worse.

Inflation on its own is bad enough but then you have a nearly £1300 rise in energy costs from their already high level from October with the prospect of further rises every three months. If you are on a low income you are more likely to be on a prepayment meter and will find it more difficult to access help while you pay proportionately higher prices.

And all the time prices continue to rise with the Bank of England warning that inflation could hit 13%.

There is not much in the way of respite coming your way. The extra money already announced isn’t going to go very far if you are low paid.

All of this comes at a time when the Conservative Government have been cutting public services for too long. So where councils might have been able to provide much needed help in the past, they are not able to do so now. Advice agencies also need investment so that they can help people find their way through and advocate on their behalf.

Senior Liberal Democrats have been talking about the crisis. Here’s Ed Davey on the news of the energy price cap rise:

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Conference: Morgan calls on Lib Dems to stand up for rural communities

By Andy Boddington | Thu 4th August 2022 - 9:50 am

One of the Lib Dems’ newest MPs, Helen Morgan has put forward a motion on supporting rural communities to Conference in September. The wide ranging motion, which will be summated by Richard Foord, calls on delegates to agree that rural areas should no longer be taken for granted and that the Liberal Democrats are best placed to help them. It says the government should introduce a price cap on heating oil and other off-grid fuels and expand the rural fuel duty relief scheme to be doubled and to cover more areas. It also calls for ministers to protect rural childcare providers with a package of support and provide emergency funding available to ambulance trusts to reverse or cancel closures of community ambulance stations.

Speaking exclusively to Lib Dem Voice, Helen Morgan said:

Those of us who live in rural areas like Shropshire are all well aware of the poor state of our services – from health to transport to broadband and policing.

The Conservatives have taken us for granted for far too long. My election was proof that people have had enough and want to be represented by a party with their interests at heart.

The UK cannot properly be levelled up without its rural areas being included.

The full motion is below.

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Caron Lindsay

Women’s Aid highlights impact of cost of living crisis on women experiencing domestic abuse

By Caron Lindsay | Wed 3rd August 2022 - 4:43 pm

Steep rises in the cost of food and energy are hard enough to deal with if you are on a low income. If you are in a situation where you are not safe at home, the impact is so much worse.

Women’s Aid have published the results of a survey of women who have experienced domestic abuse and the results make terrifying reading.

They found that:

Almost all survivors (96%) responding had seen a negative impact on the amount of money available to them as a result of cost of living increases. 

Two thirds (66%) of survivors told us that abusers are now using the cost of living increase and concerns about financial hardship as a tool for coercive control, including to justify further restricting their access to money. 

Almost three quarters (73%) of women living with and having financial links with the abuser said that the cost of living crisis had either prevented them from leaving or made it harder for them to leave. 

It is hard enough to leave an abusive partner and it is awful to think that there are even more barriers to women reaching safety because of the current economic situation.

Women’s Aid call for the following:

An Emergency Domestic Abuse Fund to support  survivors of domestic abuse through this crisis period, to pay for essential items and energy bills. 

Reduced energy costs for all refuges during the cost of living crisis, for example by extending the remit of Warm Home Discount Scheme to include refuges;

Better provision of legal services for survivors; reduce the impact of legal aid costs for survivors; fairer access to legal aid and other advocacy services and interest-free loans for legal support where necessary.

Their Chief Executive, Farah Nazeer, said:

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Myanmar Executions, what now? 

By Merlene Emerson and Dr Yeow Poon | Wed 3rd August 2022 - 3:00 pm

After the initial burst of news, there have been few updates in the UK press on the situation in Myanmar following the military coup in February 2021.  This was till recently on 25th July 2022, when the military rulers announced that 4 democracy activists were executed.  According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), these 4 executions “were the first carried out among some 117 death sentences handed down by military-run courts since the coup”.

Chinese Libdems posted two articles on Myanmar previously Standing with Myanmar – Military rule and the struggle for democracy in Myanmar (March 2021) and Myanmar’s Simmering War and UK’s moral duty (June 2021).  Given recent developments, it is perhaps timely to give an update on the situation.  

Based on our research, we have gleaned the following:
– Myanmar is in early stages of civil war.  The pro-democracy groups have set up a National Unity Government (NUG) and has established a People’s Defence Force (PDF).  Other armed groups are the Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAO) and the Sit-Tat (Myanmar Armed Forces belonging to the Junta).

– Myanmar is fragmented along conflict lines.  Some areas are under NUG control, and others by the various EAOs and the SIT-Tat.  Some areas would be in conflict as between government and rebel groups.  There is also a breakdown of national institutions (i.e., the military government) with some villages establishing their own administrative bodies.

In July 2022, China’s foreign minister during his first visit since the coup, “called for Myanmar’s junta to hold talks with its opponents”.  The Junta would of course want to retain power as far as possible and is currently set on destroying the NUG despite calling themselves a transition government.  The NUG on the other hand is far from united with some seeking the replacement of the 2008 Constitution without any power sharing arrangements.  The execution of the 4 political activists can only stiffen the resolve of the NUG to defeat the Junta.

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Richard Flowers

Five Policies for a Manifesto: In Case of Snap Election, break glass

By Richard Flowers | Wed 3rd August 2022 - 12:10 pm

There’s been a lot of speculation, before and following the fall of Boris Johnson, that there could be a snap General Election this year – initially that Johnson himself might call one as a final desperate throw of the dice; later that whoever is new Tory leader would see the economic prospects as increasingly dire and go for a personal mandate to give themselves five years to try to ride out the coming Winter of Discontent. 

Both Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss have now ruled out an early election. But they’ve promised a lot of other things they cannot deliver too.

So it would be wise to be thinking about what we want to see in a Liberal Democrat manifesto.

A snap election would be dominated by the cost of living crisis, so I’ve given some thought to how we might address some of the “freedom from poverty, ignorance and conformity” with particular emphasis on the “freedom from poverty”, and looked a little to Maslow’s famous pyramid of needs.

Everyone will come up with their own answers. These are the answers that I thought of. 

1st Food and Water: 

No one should starve in this country. 

We will introduce a national basic income so everyone will have some means to feed themselves. We will include extra allowances based on need for medical equipment. 

We will protect and value our farming and fishing industries, and rebuild our relationship with the EU, our closest and largest market for buying and selling food, to lower barriers and bring down food prices.

We will invest in development of new vertical farming and hydroponics, for a food production and security and to reduce the pressure on intensive farming methods.

Britain is a famously rainy island but embarrassingly short of water.

We will address water-resilience through addressing the issue of losses through leakage, new reserve reservoirs, and de-salination plants. 

We will end the discharge of sewage into our rivers and beaches.

2nd Warmth and Light: 

We will build onshore and offshore wind turbines and tidal lagoons to provide sustainable low-cost electricity for all. We will make energy the new UK cash crop. 

With our mix of wind and tide power, Britain should have more than enough renewable energy supply to provide for the needs of the UK and more.

We will invest in and build new forms of power storage, including pumped water (like Dinorwic) compressed-air under-sea storage, molten salt/sand technologies, and battery storage to create a new National Grid for the 21st century, so that British companies can become the dominant players in what is obviously going to be one of the biggest markets in the world.

3rd Shelter: 

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Michal Siewniak

The stark reality of ending freedom of movement

By Michal Siewniak | Wed 3rd August 2022 - 7:55 am

The summer holidays are always a time of intensive traveling for me and my family. It is usually a logistical challenge to try and visit both families in Poland and Croatia. For most of us, the “pandemic years” meant moving around was even more challenging. However due to a different set of unforeseen circumstances, we might have forgotten that visiting a family in Europe could easily become a real nightmare.

I landed in Warsaw on Friday, 29th July. As expected, there were long queues at the airport. A lot of people travel to Poland to either visit their family or spend some time exploring the spectacular nature, national parks and tasting delicious cuisine that Poland has to offer.

While waiting for my passport to be checked, I noticed a small group of people, British passport holders, with an elderly gentleman, who were told: “You are in the wrong queue”. This, as well as the recent debacle at the ferry crossing in Dover, clearly demonstrates what ending the freedom of movement looks like in practice. What a stark reality of what Brexit does to people. I must admit that I was quite surprised. 

Later on, after “digesting” the whole situation, I remembered a “historic speech” made by Priti Patel, who said: “After many years of campaigning, I am delighted that the Immigration Bill, which will end free movement on 31st December, has today passed through Parliament. We are delivering on the will of the British people”. In my view, Ms Patel forgot to add that this policy will work both ways.

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Lord William Wallace

Liz Truss is still a Republican

By Lord William Wallace | Sun 31st July 2022 - 7:00 pm

Liz Truss was a British Republican when an undergraduate.  Now she’s much more an American Republican than a British Conservative.  Her rhetoric about tax cuts, paying for themselves through increasing economic growth, is straight out of the Reaganite textbook; which is hardly surprising, since she is on record as having asked right-wing think tanks in Washington while visiting what lessons she could learn from Reaganomics and their attacks on regulation and red tape.

It is surprising that commentators in Britain have not paid more attention to the long-term colonization of the Conservative Party by the American right.  I first caught a glimpse of the process when catching a plane to Washington for a transatlantic conference during a short parliamentary recess, some twenty years ago, and found myself accompanied by over a dozen Conservative MPs – none of them specialists in US-European relations – invited to meetings with Washington think tanks.  The stalwarts of the European Research Group look across the Atlantic for intellectual leadership, and often travel across; though they rarely interact with Conservative politicians on the European continent, except with Fidesz in Hungary and other authoritarian populists.

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Tom Arms

Tom Arms’ World Review

By Tom Arms | Sun 31st July 2022 - 8:30 am

The sanctions gamble

Ukraine and Russia are engaged in a weapons war. The West in Russia are engaged in an economic war of attrition. The West’s main weapon is sanctions. Putin’s main weapons are European dependence on Russian oil and gas, food supplies to millions and the perceived decadence of Western populations. Europe had hoped to build up a reserve of stored gas supplies for the winter by importing as much Russian gas as possible until December. But Putin this week scuppered that plan by cutting piped exports by 80 percent. Germany has stopped lighting public buildings at night and has turned off the hot water in public sports centres. The price of energy is rocketing around the world, fuelling inflation and costing jobs.  There is a real prospect of energy rationing in Europe and possibly further afield. But what about Russia? Putin has admitted that Western sanctions are “a huge challenge.” The Mayor of Moscow has said the city has lost 200,000 jobs. Businesses have been forced to close and inflation in Russia is 16 percent. Analysts at Yale University this week reported that “imports have collapsed” and domestic production has come to a “complete standstill.” But here is the rub, Putin believes that Russians are tougher than their European and American counterparts. Western support for sanctions will collapse, Putin believes, when European and American consumers can no longer afford their long car journeys, overheated homes, exotic foods and multiple holidays. It’s a gamble. For both sides.

Pelosi visit threatens Xi’s position

US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping had a two-hour face to face in cyberspace this week. They discussed Ukraine, climate change and lifting some of the Trump era tariffs. But top of the list was Taiwan and the proposed trip to the disputed island by Speaker of the House of Representatives, 82-year-old Nancy Pelosi. The Chinese have vowed “resolute and forceful measures” if the visit goes ahead. The Ministry of Defense has threatened that the “Chinese military will never sit idly by.” In Taiwan, the authorities have been conducting air raid drills. At the heart of the problem is China’s claim of sovereignty over Taiwan and its stated willingness to use force to impose it. To date, however, Beijing’s emphasis has been on diplomatic pressure. It has successfully isolated the Taipei government by hounding other nations to break off relations and blocking Taiwan’s membership of international bodies. Anything that smacks of international recognition of Taiwan is strongly opposed by Beijing, and a visit by a high-profile American politician who is third in line to the presidency is extremely high profile—especially given Ms Pelosi’s strong anti-Beijing position. She has repeatedly attacked the Chinese Communist Party’s human rights record, entertained the Dalai Lama, unfurled a pro-democracy banner in Tiananmen Square and supported Hong Kong demonstrators. In short, she is not well-liked in Beijing.  But there are other problems related to President Xi’s position within the Chinese Communist Party. It is not strong at the moment. He is viewed by many as having badly managed the covid pandemic and China’s response to the war in Ukraine. In October the Party will hold its national congress at which Xi is expected to be voted a third term. It is important that the vote is a general acclamation rather than a mere majority vote. Failure to stand firm on Taiwan—added to covid and Ukraine—could undermine that.

The Brexit Conundrum

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The beautiful game is coming home but not in politics

By Andy Boddington | Sat 30th July 2022 - 5:54 pm

Trollies are being wheeled out of supermarkets stacked with booze. The BBQs will tomorrow be lit to sear burgers and sausages to the point of incineration. It’s party time because it’s coming home. And the final is against Germany, our nation’s favourite enemy in what used to be called the beautiful game.

Today’s newspapers are not only full of coverage of the Lionesses, they cover the other contest gripping the nation (or probably not). The battle to become Tory leader and the prime minister of our nation. With the backing on Ben Wallace and Tom Tugendhat, Liz Truss probably thinks it’s all over. It is not over until the final whistle.

I think most of us wish it was over. Why has the Tory party imposed this lengthy torture on us? It’s a huge home goal for the party, which is showing itself in the worst possible light.

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Paul Heilbron

ALDC by-election report 28th July

By Paul Heilbron | Fri 29th July 2022 - 8:00 pm

Another week goes by, another round of up all things By-elections goes live. A noticeably quiet week for principal by-elections with one only two being contested across the country. However, a very action-packed agenda on the Town Council front and more specifically, Town Council by-elections in Westhoughton, three in one evening!

As Liberal Democrats we take Town and Parish elections extremely seriously. Community politicians are the beating heart of our democracy, and we pride ourselves on representing our communities as close as possible to the people that we represent.

So here we have it one hold, one gain and one near miss rounds up a great evening for the local Liberal Democrat team in Westhoughton. Alison Jackson or should I say councillor Alison Jackson gained Ward Hoskers and Hart ward, whilst Linda Maher comfortably held onto Central ward. Commiserations go out to Ryan Hough who was pipped to the post by only 29 votes, it was nearly a perfect night for the local Liberal Democrat team!

 

Westhoughton TC, Hoskers and Hart

Liberal Democrats (Alison Jackson): 137
Labour: 90
Conservative: 89
Independent: 64

 

Westhoughton TC, Central

Liberal Democrats (Linda Maher): 276
Labour: 171
Conservative: 129
Independent: 87

 

Westhoughton TC, White Horse

Conservative: 415
Liberal Democrats (Ryan Hough): 384
Labour: 208
Independent: 52
Green: 21

 

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Mary Reid

Trolling the weather

By Mary Reid | Fri 29th July 2022 - 4:00 pm

The BBC tells us that their weather forecasters have been trolled about their heatwave reports.

Tweets aimed at BBC Weather and its presenters featured personal insults and messages such as “it’s just summer” – many described advice on how to stay cool as pandering to the “woke-brigade” or for “snowflakes”.

Other tweets accused the Met Office and the BBC of spreading “alarmism” and “hysteria”, telling both to “stop scaremongering”.

Hundreds of people have also shared their experiences of the 1976 heatwave on social media, with many making the false suggestion that this month’s heatwave was “no different”.

…

BBC meteorologist Tomasz Schafernaker said: “What frustrates me most is when I’m accused of twisting the truth. As meteorologists, we report facts. There is no conspiracy.”

I have huge sympathy for the forecasters who are doing their job with great professionalism. Rather than scaremongering, if anything, they are very restrained in their comments, and rarely explain to viewers directly about the reasons for extreme weather.

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Mary Reid

Sunak and Truss on Grammar Schools

By Mary Reid | Fri 29th July 2022 - 1:13 pm

Yesterday Rishi Sunak agreed that he wanted to bring back grammar schools. Earlier Liz Truss had said that she wanted to end the ban on new grammar schools.

I find this profoundly depressing.

No-one should talk about grammar schools in isolation from the rest of the education system. They are one aspect of a selective system which sees all children placed in either a selective grammar school or a non-selective school. Each new grammar school generates, by default, at least two other schools designed for those who don’t attend grammar schools.

Such a system is based on three questionable assumptions.

  1. Bright children are not served well by comprehensive schools. (Odd then that Liz Truss got into Oxford from a comprehensive, even though she now chooses to denigrate her old school.)
  2. A child’s educational potential is fixed and can be identified at the age of 11. (This has been thoroughly debunked.)
  3. Selective systems benefit all children and society at large. (Ah, where do we start?)

I was a product of the selective system – as indeed were many people who are still in positions of influence and power, who believe that Grammar Schools gave them a good start in life. At the time it didn’t feel right to me. I went to a Grammar School where I was expected to take O levels and A levels while some of my friends were channelled into Secondary Modern Schools where they were forced to leave at 15 without any qualifications. I knew that they were being educationally disadvantaged and that it would have an impact across the whole of their lives.

In 1965 just 20% of pupils gained 5 or more O Level passes in England and Wales – and they would have all been studying at Grammar Schools. By 1975 the majority of local authorities had moved to a comprehensive system, and improvements in attainments started appearing in the 1980s. Over the years the percentage of pupils gaining what is now known as a Level 2 qualification (5 or more GCSEs with A* to C grades, or equivalent) has risen steadily.  By 1988 it stood at 30%, but by 2015 it was 86% (although it has dropped back a few points since then).  So no-one can argue that outcomes were better under a selective system – it was comprehensive schools that overwhelmingly delivered these results.

And of course there is plenty of research which shows that selection favoured the middle classes. Indeed my feelings of unease solidified when I spent some months in my gap year working for a renowned team who were researching just that.

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NHS crisis: Never have so many been ignored by so few

By Andy Boddington | Thu 28th July 2022 - 3:40 pm

The NHS is in an unparalleled crisis and the whole system seems at the edge of breakdown. Everything from care primary from ambulances, A&Es, staffing of hospitals, through to discharge to care is in crisis. Yet, the NHS is being almost ignored in the leadership debate and by the zombie government.

Last night, ITV news ran a short item on the crisis ahead of tonight’s report on the crisis on Tonight (ITV 8.30pm). Ed Davey said the item was “hard to watch”:

Many might find the leadership debates, or perhaps I should say leadership debacle, hard to watch. The economy is vastly important but it is not the only game in town. The NHS should not be a sideshow in the pursuit of politician’s ambitions.

Never have so many been ignored by so few.

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Neil Alexander

Scotland’s national drink could be costing more for a dram in Scotland

By Neil Alexander | Thu 28th July 2022 - 1:31 pm

The SNP Conference in October is proposing a new tax on whisky, to “mitigate the impact of this cost of living crisis”.

The Scottish whisky trade is one of our biggest assets in Scotland, with exports of £4.51bn in 2021. To Moray, whisky is a key part of the barrel in our local economy. You don’t need to look far to see a distillery across our area, with Moray Council listing 16 across the region.

The motion has been penned by the Glasgow Southside branch of the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon’s own local branch! How can a Scottish First Minister not understand how important this trade is to us in Moray? Or has she turned a blind eye?

This new levy on whisky may be reasoned as a consequence of the Tory-led cost of living crisis, but in real terms, a higher cost would mean Moray is hit even harder. Distilleries would suffer the cost, and that could in turn impact jobs in Moray.

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Mary Reid

2 million unsolved crimes

By Mary Reid | Wed 27th July 2022 - 12:41 pm

When the Met Police introduced its Safer Neighbourhood policing strategy in 2004 I was one of many local councillors who warmly welcomed the initiative. And over the years I could witness its effectiveness in driving down crime. It was replicated by Police forces across the country.

The problem was that Neighbourhood Policing was too successful, so inevitably over time resources were reduced because of low crime rates. Whereas before the teams worked solely on ward issues, today they can be pulled away at any time to deal with issues in the town centre. And guess what happened? – crime levels rose again. You can investigate crime rates in London over time here. (I am focussing on London because it’s what I know, but I am sure similar stories can be told across the UK)

So how did it work? In London each council ward was allocated one police sergeant, supported by two or three other police officers and a couple of PCSOs. Their task was to get to know their patches really well and prevent crime. In particular they focussed on low level crime and anti-social behaviour with the aim of leading perpetrators away from criminal activities.

One example comes to mind. There is a small pocket park in the ward which is completely surrounded by homes, and young people liked to gather there. Trouble began when some of them started throwing stones into back gardens causing some damage. Some of the residents contacted me and asked for a meeting with the police as they felt nothing was being done about it.

So one evening about 30 people crammed into someone’s living room and the police sergeant listened patiently for about an hour while they vented their anger and concerns. The residents were convinced that the problem was caused by a gang from outside the area and that punitive measures were needed.

Once they had all said their piece jaws dropped when the sergeant produced a list of the names and addresses of about 20 young people who had been involved. The police knew exactly who was causing the trouble and they had been quietly dealing with it in a way that would not push the young people further into criminality.

He explained that they all lived in the houses around the park and all had been spoken to.  The older ringleaders had been cautioned. Letters had been sent to the parents of the remaining culprits stating that the police were worried that their children were at risk of getting involved with anti-social groups and asking for their support to divert them.

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Bernard Aris

How Liz Truss emulated Margaret Thatcher as an Education Minister

By Bernard Aris | Tue 26th July 2022 - 3:17 pm

David Laws’ Coalition memoirs tell  how Liz Truss’s stubbornness as a  junior minister became part of the Tory-Lib Dem mudslinging fest by Michael Gove

I would like to point especially new Lib Dem members to the memoirs of David Laws on his experiences at the heart of the 2010-2015 Tory-Lib Dem Coalition government. Laws  tells us about Liz’s first steps as a junior Education minister, and her characteristics and policymaking attitudes  which shone through.

On Saturday, Andy Boddington reported on a Times article in which Neil Fawcett, now a Federal Board member and  Oxfordshire County councillor, said that Liz in her LDYS days was on the radical wing of our party, promoting both abolishing the monarchy and legalising cannabis. On that last point she made the first of a whole series of Damascene conversions  after joining the Tories in 1996.  During her 2001 Hemsworth parliamentary campaign she said that she now opposed it.

From 1998-2010 she was active in Tory local politics in Greater London and Greenwich, before entering parliament in 2010 from David Cameron’s A-list. So she knew about local politics, in which Education and Childcare (at least in  Dutch local politics) are always a big issue. For all Social Liberals, good childcare and good education from the earliest stages has been a major issue for the past 140 years.

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Caron Lindsay

Have your say on Bill to ensure safe access to abortion clinics

By Caron Lindsay | Tue 26th July 2022 - 1:17 pm

Green MSP Gillian Mackay is running a public consultation on her Private Member’s Bill which would implement 150m “buffer zones” around sexual health clinics so that anyone accessing abortion services is not subject to intimidation and distress from pro-life groups holding up upsetting images and shouting at them.

This Bill has cross-party backing and is likely to pass. Scottish Lib Dem Leader Alex Cole-Hamilton has voiced strong support.

You don’t have to live in Scotland to respond to this consultation. Evidence of people’s experience from across the whole of the UK, or even internationally, is more than welcome.

Last night Engender, one of Scotland’s main feminist organisations, and Back Off Scotland, the campaign for buffer zones, held a joint meeting to discuss the consultation.

Catherine Murphy, Engender’s new Executive Director who has years of experience fighting for sexual and reproductive rights, set the scene. She warned of anti gender equality actors spending hundreds of millions of pounds across Europe to undermine women’s rights to, amongst other things, sexual and reproductive healthcare.

She described the US overturning Roe vs Wade as a “horrendous violation of rights”

There was, however, hope with increasing global momentum for change. Decriminalisation of abortion in Argentina had led to change in Mexico and Colombia.

She talked about the need for the debate on abortion to continue in a progressive way in Scotland. The more marginalised people are, the greater difficulty they tend to have in accessing abortion services.

She said that there still remains no legal right for a woman to end a pregnancy that she does not wish to continue. This has to be established by not one but two doctors. There are also examples of women being investigated by police on suspicion of carrying out illegal abortions if they have miscarriages or stillbirths. We need to work towards total decriminalisation.

Lucy Grieve from Back Off Scotland was next to speak. She and a friend set up the campaign when they were students after she witnessed pro lifers gathering outside an Edinburgh sexual health clinic during lockdown.

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Caron Lindsay

Eugh! Lib Dems react to Sunak v Truss debate

By Caron Lindsay | Tue 26th July 2022 - 8:04 am

The press release from the Lib Dem Press Office just after the BBC debate between Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak last night was very short.

Lib Dems respond to BBC Tory leadership debate

Responding to this evening’s BBC Tory leadership debate, a Liberal Democrat spokesperson said: 

“Eurgh.”

ENDS

While it lacked in words, it summed up the feelings of much of the country, although I still think it was a bit generous.  Neither the participants nor the BBC covered themselves in glory.

Other Lib Dem reaction included:

You wouldn’t expect there to be much for liberals to be pleased about in a Conservative leadership debate, particularly as the participants are pandering to an increasingly right wing membership that would not be out of place in the Republican Party of Donald Trump. Ultra-nationalist, small state, minority bashing, this is what’s left after all the decent, one-nation types left in disgust in 2019.

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