Observations of an ex pat: Tectonic shifts

The Earth is constantly changing. There are something like 15 plates which comprise the Earth’s crust or mantle and they are forever moving towards and away from each other. Geologists call the movements tectonic shifts, and sometimes they cause massive earthquakes or volcanic eruptions.

The geological shifts are mirrored in politics. Presidents, prime ministers, governments and countries move to the right and the left. They change alliances and sometimes disappear altogether.

Earthquakes are difficult to predict. The same can be said of tectonic political shifts. In one case we are dealing with nature with all its unknown variables. In the other we are dealing with equally unpredictable human nature.

The political world at the moment is going through one of its shifts. It is a shift which involves the rise of new powers, ideas, concepts, and resources and the decline of their older counterparts in different parts of the world. Just as with an earthquake, or volcanic eruption, these are likely to be disruptive at best and wreak death and destruction at worst.

Fifty years ago the world was locked in a Cold War between two powers—the United States and the Soviet Union—representing two separate and distinct political ideologies. Most of the rest of the world either voluntarily or involuntarily sided with one power or another.

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My advice to Meghan

In the spirit of the 12 Days of Christmas, which end tomorrow on January 5th, here are 12 bits of advice I’d offer our future royal family member. I myself married into the establishment 23 years ago from across the pond – a different sort of establishment, but nevertheless, the esteemed role of being an Oxford don’s wife.

  1. No matter how long you live here, people will hear your accent first. Not your words or what you’re saying, your accent. So just accept that you will always be ‘that American Harry married.’
  2. Keep your sense of humour. The British are

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Who we are…

An academic study produced by the Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London, has appeared today that reveals the character of the main political parties.

Unsurprisingly we are overwhelmingly, up to 96%, anti-Brexit, in favour of the Single Market and Customs Union, and would strongly support a referendum on the outcome of negotiations.  Significantly, Labour’s membership are not far behind us on Brexit, indicating a disjunction with the Labour leadership that is likely to prove contentious, if Labour continue to tergiversate over Brexit.

By contrast the Tory membership not only favour Brexit, …

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The January Blues: Loneliness

After the hype of Christmas and New Year’s there comes the annual collective let-down. Absolutely normal after super-charged activity and lots of parties, but what about those who have loneliness as a constant companion?

Before I pontificate, I should declare I enjoy self-imposed loneliness. I am a pianist, and some of my happiest days are when I see no-one at all.  Difficult to explain to a non-musician. There was a recent Christmas where I left the family with the in-laws, and came home to my studio for 8 days of uninterrupted work. …

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Lib Dem Jobwatch: ALDC Fundraising & Sponsorship Officer

The Association of Liberal Democrat Councillors and Campaigners is this party’s foremost authority on local campaigning. They know how to win council seats and run councils like nobody else. A chance to work for them is a real opportunity.

ALDC, the Association of Liberal Democrat Councillors and Campaigners, is looking for an enthusiastic new team member in this newly created role of Fundraising and Sponsorship Officer.

You will have the experience and enthusiasm to help us grow our income from various sources, with the biggest potential in major donor and membership fundraising. You

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Introducing Liberal Democrats for Prison Reform

Prisoners get a bad rap. They get pushed around by politicians because it is politically popular to beat them with a rolled-up copy of the daily.

Just because this happens doesn’t mean it is okay. In fact, it is a fundamental abdication of our moral duty not to stand up for the human rights of our fellow human beings.

As such I been conducting some informal polling within the Young Liberals and by a landslide of 92% in favour, 8% opposing, they backed prisoner voting. Further questioning of the group indicated a 96% …

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Iran Protests – Ayatolld me not to come…that ain’t the way to have fun



So Iran is back in the news again; there’s always something fun going on there! The country seems to have exploded in protests, something many analysts had previously thought near impossible. These protests are complex and still evolving (having only started December 28th), appearing to be various forms of cathartic action with outpourings of anger over food price increases, strict religious rule and corruption. Somewhat negligently, analysts appear not to have predicted instability in Iran (despite the high/volatile food prices, young population and regional instability).

In 2009 the so-called ‘Green Revolution’ made headlines: a series of large protests in response to what people saw as a fixed election. Whilst Iran is not quite a dictatorship, it is not quite a democracy. People do vote for a President and parliament, however, the religious leadership and Ayatollah tightly vet which candidates are even allowed to run. Furthermore the actual authority of the political leadership is capped, as religious figures control the powerful Revolutionary Guard, therefore dictating nuclear and foreign policy. The main differences, however, between the protests we’re seeing now and those of the Green Revolution is that the former were primarily in Tehran and attended mainly by the middle and upper classes. These protests are largely being driven by lower socio-economic status rural and non-Tehranis. This group has long been seen as the Ayatollah’s base and was assumed to be subservient if not content, and their dissent indicates that we may be about to see something big.

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WATCH: Vince Cable on LBC talking homelessness, brexit, being a puritan on drugs, knife crime and Nick’s knighthood

In case you missed it yesterday, here is Vince Cable’s start of year phone in with Nick Ferrari

He got the chance to talk about the scandal of so many young people sleeping rough while there were so many empty properties. He highlighted the role of Universal Credit in causing homelessness among young people. He also talked about the need to build more houses.

Nick Ferrari actually raised the issue of homelessness among veterans which led to a discussion of how veterans with mental ill health don’t get the support and treatment they need.

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How we could abolish relative poverty in five years

Do we want to abolish relative poverty in five years? Here’s one way we could do it.

In December the Joseph Rowntree Foundation published its report UK Poverty 2017

The report states:

14 million people live in poverty in the UK – over one in five of the population. This is made up of eight million working-age adults, four million children and 1.9 million pensioners. 8 million live in families where at least one person is in work.

The question for Liberal Democrats is how can we eliminate relative poverty over the course of a five year Parliament.

The JRF report defines relative poverty as “when a family has an income of less
than 60% of median income for their family type, after housing costs”. They set out levels of income (after Income Tax, National Insurance and housing cost have been deducted) needed for different types of family units:

Family type £ per week, equivalised,

2015/16 prices

Couple with no children 248
Single with no children 144
Couple with two children aged 5 and 14 401
Single with two children aged 5 and 14 297

Source: Households Below Average Income 2015/16, table 2.2db

It is depressing to recognise that poverty among pensioners is increasing (from 13% in 2011/12 to 16% in 2015/16). In 2015/16 the Pension guarantee was set to £151.20 for single people and £230.85 for couples while the pension rates were only £115.95 (single) and £185.45 (couples). To eliminate poverty for couples we could increase the couple rate by 1.5% above the normal increase for 5 years (totally 7.73% compared to a shortfall of 7.43%)

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LDV’s top 12 posts of 2017 – Number 1

Fashionably late, because you should have had this on New Year’s Day, is our top post of 2017.

#1: Jo Swinson MP writes: The role I want to play in our party’s leadership

In it, Jo Swinson explains why she has decided not to run for leader.

I have been overwhelmed by so many lovely messages from people I know, and from many members I have not yet met, encouraging me to stand for leader. I am touched and flattered that you look to me – and I am determined to play a key role in our party’s leadership.

Being the leader of a political party is a unique and all-encompassing job, even more than the roles of MP and Minister that I have undertaken before. It should not be done simply to achieve status, to make a point, or to please others.

When Theresa May called the snap election, my instincts immediately told me that I should stand to win back East Dunbartonshire: it felt right. Every fibre of my being was up for it, my clarity of purpose was intense – to stop a divisive second independence referendum, to halt an extreme Brexit, and to get back to the job I have loved most out of all the things I’ve done.

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The pointless question is….

No not the quiz programme.  I am asking about the Liberal Democrats – a minor, centrist political party in the United Kingdom.  A Party that for 86 years has espoused a fairer and more representative voting system but for some inexplicable reason in 2017 it lost all enthusiasm for coalition government.

Our current leader said during the last election campaign “I would be astonished if he (Tim Farron) countenanced any kind of coalition with Labour or the Conservatives.”  So here is the very big SO – why bother voting for us, after all there was no chance that we would be forming a Government.  If we weren’t going to countenance a coalition with either of the two main parties how were we going to bring our influence to bear in securing a second referendum, for instance.

This was a denial of our long standing, honourable and rational argument for a fairer voting system that more reflects the diverse views of the electorate.  An argument first made by the Liberal Party in their 1931 General Election manifesto.

The conditions of the present Election are one more proof of the imperative need of a reform in the electoral system if the real wishes of the voters are to be truly expressed at the polls.

The purpose being that

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Former Conservative Camden Council Deputy Leader joins Liberal Democrats

Welcome, Andrew Marshall.

Andrew, who is still a Councillor in Camden but who resigned from the Tories last year, explained his reasons to the Ham and High

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Where there’s a will, there may or may not be a way forward

In December 2017, a report entitled “The Million Dollar Be-Question” by Laura Gardiner was published by the Resolution Foundation . It is a report worth examining and heeding by both individual citizens and political parties.

Below is the site from which you can download this report which takes less than 25 pages of A4 paper. 10 sides will give you the introduction and “Executive Summary” from which all quotations are taken and paraphrases, questions and comments derived.

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The loss of Adonis is a second blow to the county’s growth plans. Who will replace him?

Few voters will notice the resignation of Andrew Adonis as chair of the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC). Not many will know what NIC did. More people will have heard of Lord Heseltine, though outside Manchester and Liverpool, few may understand how important he has been to regeneration of urban areas. He was sacked for disobeying Theresa May over Brexit. Adonis resigned over Brexit and his disillusionment wit May’s government.

This country is rapidly running out of expert champions for regeneration, building infrastructure and growing the economy.

Surely the needs for regeneration and housing should rise above day-to-day political infighting?

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It has to be about more than just Brexit in 2018

2018 is, for the optimists, the year when the wheels come off of the Brexit chariot for once and for all. The process of negotiating “the best possible deal for the United Kingdom” obliges the Government to face up to the brutal reality that the European Union has to hold together at all costs, and that means an outcome for us that is less good than the current arrangements. Then, as rational people, Conservative MPs will look into the abyss and realise how bad things might be.

I’m not so sure. Remember, most of them campaigned, with various levels of enthusiasm, …

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Welcome to my day – 1 January 2018: a (day) editorial thought for a New Year…

One of the unexpected advantages of being the Day Editor on New Year’s Day is that you can, perhaps, make a resolution for the year ahead. And nobody can stop you…

Mwah, hah, hah, hah…

And it dawns on me that, as the person technically responsible for moderation today, I have the tools at my disposal to actually change a small corner of the Internet, and make it a better place, if only for a little while. Call it “taking a stand for decency”, if you like. Or, as someone is bound to say, “censorship”… (you’re wrong, in the nicest possible …

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Happy New Year to all!

Yes, it’s time to say goodbye to 2017, and hello to a brand new year. On behalf of the whole Liberal Democrat Voice team, I’d like to wish you all a Happy New Year, and hope that you’ve enjoyed the festive season so far.

It will be another quiet day at LDV Towers, made more so by the fact that your Day Editor is five hours adrift – I’m off out to dinner in about an hour. But remember, we welcome your comments, contributions and support, so do feel free to let us have your thoughts!

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Top of the Blogs: The Lib Dem Golden Dozen #500

Welcome to the Golden Dozen, and our 500th weekly round-up from the Lib Dem blogosphere … Featuring the five most popular stories beyond Lib Dem Voice according to click-throughs from the Aggregator (24-30 December, 2017), together with a hand-picked seven you might otherwise have missed.And how amazing was that to have the 500th edition fall on Hogmanay! Here’s to the next 500. The whole point of this is to showcase the best in Lib Dem blogging.

Don’t forget: you can sign up to receive the Golden Dozen direct to your email inbox — just click here — ensuring you never miss out on the best of Lib Dem blogging.

As ever, let’s start with the most popular post, and work our way down:

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LDV’s top 12 posts of 2017 – Number 2

We’re on the home straight now.

Our second most read post of this year was actually written in 2016, but presumably became important again during the General Election.

#2 How did our constituencies vote in the EU referendum?

Duncan Brack’s commentary on Chris Hanratty’s analysis of the vote in present and former Lib Dem seats challenged the party to come up with ways to appeal to Leave voters as much as to Remain voters.

Given that almost two-thirds of the seats in total (three-quarters in England and Wales) voted to leave, that’s quite a strong skew towards remain-voting areas – as we might expect – and it helps to identify some of the seats we might hope to win back at the next election on the back of pro-remain feeling.

But let’s not forget that we need to win seats in areas that voted leave too. I would expect that Liberal Democrat voters in those areas were predominantly remain, but by no means all of them were – and we also know that, overall, a third of Liberal Democrat voters voted leave.

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LDV’s top 12 posts of 2017 – Number 3

We’re back to the party leadership with our 3rd most popular post.

#3 Ed Davey MP writes: My family, my party

Everyone assumed Ed Davey was going to run for the party leadership. Rumours abounded that his campaign team was already in place. So when he emailed me early one morning to ask if there was space for a piece from him, I agreed, with a soon-to-be-regretted flippant comment about what it might be about.

I was a bit mortified when the copy actually came in.

I’ve come back to Westminster more determined than ever to campaign hard for the party Emily and I both love – but not to campaign to lead the party at this moment.

When Tim resigned, I assumed Jo would go for it, and I would have supported her. She gave understandable reasons why she didn’t – so here are my reasons, some similar to Jo’s.

Emily and I met through the party. I was chairing a Housing Policy Working Group and she was a member, as a social housing lawyer. What could be more romantic?

Our joy this weekend was seeing our two children play together. And when you understand that John (aged 9) is severely disabled, you will appreciate that seeing our 3 year old daughter make him laugh is quite special.

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LDV’s top 12 posts of 2017 – Number 4

By the beginning of March, Donald Trump had been in power for 6 weeks and the liberal world was horrified at what he was doing.

#4 Donald Trump is a dangerous and complete joke – but the joke is on the American people

Paul Walter wrote a sobering piece after yet another nonsense tweet storm.

If we step back, we can consider some of the people who have graced the Oval Office: Abraham Lincoln, Dwight D Eisenhower, Teddy Roosevelt, Franklin D Roosevelt, George H W Bush, John F Kennedy, Woodrow Wilson, Barack Obama… and then we see this dangerous, complete joke of a President tweeting before he’s shaved. The fine world reputation of successive US Presidents as, more or less, wise and sensible people is being trashed by one man who received three million less votes than his competitor.

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LDV’s top 12 posts of 2017 – Number 5

We’re now at Number 5 in our look back at our most read posts of 2017.

#5 Massive Lib Dem swing to GAIN Sunderland council seat from Labour in by-elections clean sweep

In this post from January, Lib Dem MSP Alex Cole-Hamilton says he’s doing a one-man conga in celebration at some stunning local council by-election results. In Sunderland of all places we went from zero to 41.5% of the vote to win a seat.

So, two very different results. An amazing gain that few would have expected from Labour in the north. UKIP’s vote fell by a third, too. In contrast, we are also doing very well and re-gaining support in our areas of strength. Not bad for a bitterly cold Winter’s day’s work.

UPDATE: It’s been such a good night that the leader has had something to say about it:

We finished 2016 winning by-elections and tonight we have shown that the Lib Dem Fightback is going from strength to strength. Since May 2015 we have now gained over 20 council seats and won a parliamentary by-election in Richmond Park.

Thanks to the hard work of local campaigners and great candidates we have gained two new council seats and control of a council.

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Willie Rennie’s New Year message: The forces of openness and tolerance tolerance must win the argument in 2018

In recent years we have witnessed the forces of division making advances in the court of public opinion. It has made our country more introspective and insular instead of the outward looking, optimistic nation that it has traditionally been.

In 2018, it is my ambition to make sure the forces of openness and tolerance start winning the argument again.

We should begin with immigration. It is good for our social fabric, our culture and our economy. Bringing people from across the globe enriches us with talented and energetic people who want to give to their new home

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LDV’s top 12 posts of 2017 – Number 6

So we kick off our second half of our most popular posts of 2017 with one of the most shocking and heartbreaking.

14th June is a day etched in our collective memory as the awful day when the Grenfell fire took place. We were all so horrified.

In the few days after the election, there had been some signs that all was not so harmonious in the parliamentary party. Some Lib Dem members of the House of Lords had publicly made clear their dissatisfaction with Tim Farron and there were reports of private grumblings.

We may never know exactly what it was that prompted Tim to resign so suddenly in the early evening. We had his resignation speech on video and text.

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Jane Dodds’ New Year Message: Welsh Liberal Democrats are fighting back

Dymuniadau Gorau i chi gyd dros y Blwyddyn Newydd/ Best Wishes to you all for the New Year.

2018 will be the year of the Welsh Liberal Democrat fight back, with renewed energy in our activists, key policies which will change the lives of Welsh people, and a focus on winning seats.

We want to see a Wales that has social justice as its backbone – rethinking a punitive benefits system which wages war on the poor.  We want to see a Wales that looks out to Europe – leaving the EU would be a disaster for Welsh farmers and businesses.  We want to see a Wales that  welcomes refugees – building on its proud history of internationalism.  We want to see a Wales that has a health system that is fair – English people have waiting times for planned operations that is half that of Welsh people.  We want to see an economic plan for Wales that will breathe new life into its urban and rural areas – promoting innovation in green industries.  

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WATCH: Vince Cable’s New Year message – Liberal Democrats are the party who stand up for the underdog

Vince’s New Year message is a little different. It’s another of these W1A style videos where he goes completely off piste from the remarks prepared for him by his team. Which would never, ever happen in real life, obviously.

He concentrates on the principles that drive the Liberal Democrats, challenging vested interests and standing up for the underdog.

He’ll be wanting to get over in the next year how the Liberal Democrats have so often been right and ahead of our time. 2018 marks the 30th anniversary of the formation of the Liberal Democrats and in that time we’ve led on issues like LGBT rights, the Iraq war, environmental issues, standing up for the rights of Hong Kong citizens and calling for humanitarian intervention in Bosnia. We should also remember that Vince was the lone political voice warning about the dangers of the credit crunch.

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LDV’s top 12 posts of 2017 – Number 7

Your last one for today takes us back to 22 June when Vince Cable announced that he would be standing for leader.

#7: Breaking News: Vince Cable announces his candidacy for leader

A week after Tim Farron’s shock resignation, Vince Cable announced that he would stand to replace him. By the time he announced, all of his fellow MPs had ruled themselves out.

He outlined where he wanted the party to go:

There are big opportunities ahead. The Conservatives are in disarray and in retreat. The Labour Party outperformed expectations but complacently believes that ‘one more heave’ will see it into office. But an economic policy based on offering lots of free things lacks economic credibility and will be found out. Investing in infrastructure, rather than borrowing for everyday running costs is credible. There is a big space in British politics which I am determined that we should occupy.

The contest will take place with the largest membership electorate in our party’s history. We should be ambitious about increasing our number still further and in particular attracting young people to our cause. I welcome the more diverse party and parliamentary party we now have and will give priority to promoting diversity, an issue I championed as a minister and with some success in business leadership.

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LDV’s top 12 posts of 2017 – Number 8

Number 8 in our countdown is unique because it contains the words “utter bollocks” used by a senior Lib Dem MP. We do wish Alistair wouldn’t hold back and would just say what he means.

#8: Alistair Carmichael writes…The truth about those “secret Tory talks”

In early July, Twitter erupted in a firestorm of fury when it was reported that Lib Dems were in secret talks to prop up the Tories in Parliament. If people had stopped to think for a wee second, they might have quickly realised that a pro EU party was never going to form any sort of alliance …

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LDV’s top 12 posts of 2017 – Number 9

We continue our meander through the top dozen LDV posts of the year with another trip back to January.

#9 This is how to respect the referendum result

In this post, Rob Parsons tackled the argument that those of us who wish to remain in the EU were disrespecting the referendum result and flouting the “will of the people.”

Generally speaking electoral votes stand, even if the majority is unsatisfactory. But that is premised on two conditions.  The first is that the voters get a chance regularly to change their minds. The second is that the voters were – at least relatively –

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LDV’s top 12 posts of 2017 – Number 10

In time honoured tradition, we are running down our most popular posts of 2017 in reverse order:

#10: Remainer myths and post truth politics

Back in January, Ben Andrew wrote that, while he was distraught at the referendum result and believed Brexit would damage us, we shouldn’t pretend to ourselves that people were going to change their mind:

Like most Lib Dems, I think that Brexit will be a total disaster. I think that it will vandalise our economy, damage our universities, and give us less influence on the global stage. However, the response of many Lib Dems and other Remainers to the referendum result has left me a little disheartened. And I’m not talking about this “referendum on the terms of the deal” – which I’m a bit on the fence about, but I do see some reasoning for. I’m talking about the nonsense claims bouncing around our echo chamber, which exist purely to make us feel better about this horrible referendum result.

The one which I hear most often is that, having seen what Brexit really means, those who voted Leave have decided that this isn’t what they wanted after all and that they now wish to turn back the clock. This is a fantasy. Poll after poll after poll has shown that Regrexit doesn’t exist – that no more Leavers than Remainers have changed their mind in the aftermath of the referendum.

He concluded:

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