Want to know who Ed Davey would snog, marry and avoid?

Ed Davey is heading to Edinburgh on Saturday 12th August to take part in the For the Many Podcast with Iain Dale and former Labour Home Secretary Jacqui Smith. Tickets, which cost £17, are selling fast, so don’t miss your chance by snapping them up here.

I hope he knows what he is letting himself in for as these shows can be quite the wild ride with a generous helping of smut and comedy alongside the politics. There’s usually a bit of snog, marry, avoid and in the most recent live show, outgoing Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price was asked which politicians he would like to see on Naked Attraction. There are some questions to which “none” is the only acceptable answer. To be fair, the live shows are usually less lurid than the weekly episodes, the audience providing a reminder that someone else is actually listening.

I reckon our Ed will handle himself pretty well as long as he realises that there are few boundaries. He is, I think, much better at these sorts of informal events than at the big set piece speeches.

For the Many has been going since 2017 and, if my calculations are correct, will hit its 400th episode during its Edinburgh run. I started listening to it by accident just before Christmas last year and was surprised at how much I enjoyed it.

Since, I’ve gone back to listen to some of the episodes covering Brexit, Covid and the ongoing Tory psychodrama. As you would expect, Lib Dems don’t usually get the credit we deserve in their analysis so I generally fall asleep during the serious bits and wake up in fits of rib-breaking laughter at some of the outrageous filth they come out with.

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Lib Dems challenge coronation arrests

Back in the 1930s, there was a deep suspicion amongst courtiers of broadcasting royal events on the radio. They worried that the events would be demeaned by men listening to them in public houses with their hats on. Ninety years on, these courtiers would have been utterly disgusted at the prospect of women watching last Saturday’s coronation (as I did) on their phones on sunbeds in Spain, one pina colada to the good.

I hadn’t intended to watch any of it while I was away on my first ever girls’ holiday. Truth be told, I’d had trouble even mustering up indifference. However, one of our party had a friend participating and she wanted to see if she could spot him.

So I managed to marvel at some of the proceedings, including Penny Mordaunt’s impressive sword-holding while dressed as every Tory Boy’s Thatcherite fantasy.

However much I like the spectacle, I am far from convinced that a hereditary monarchy, even one with few powers, is the best way for our country to be governed. I am not too exercised by the question, though, as there are many more pressing things – including giving people the Parliament they ask for – that need to be done.

I totally get why protesters from the organisation Republic might want to make their point by protesting in the run up to the coronation. They have every right to do so in a democratic society. Yet heavy handed action by the Police saw protesters, and in one case a royal fan who was there to enjoy the day, arrested and deprived of their liberty for hours.  A retrospective expression of regret by the Police is just not good enough.

The events showed the flaws in the recently passed Public Order Act, exactly as our people in Parliament had warned as it was debated.

As you would expect, Lib Dems have been highly critical of the arrests. Alistair Carmichael, our Home Affairs spokesperson, said on Twitter:

Tim Farron said that tolerating protest would be the “most utterly British thing imaginable:

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Observations of an expat: Trump

Americans are divided as to whether this has been a good, bad or pretty much the same as always week for Donald Trump.

The ex-president is now legally stigmatised as a sex abuser. Journalist E. Jean Carroll also managed to legally out him as a serial liar. Of course, most people have for years regarded Trump as a lying sex pest, but it is another matter having it unanimously confirmed by a courtroom jury of your peers.

The Trump sex abuse trial was quickly followed by a CNN-organised town hall meeting in New Hampshire where the former president continued to defame Ms Carroll (which may end up costing him even more money). He also refused to back Ukraine and said he would end the war in 24 hours; plunge the world into economic chaos rather than raise the US debt ceiling; would pardon most of the January 6 Capitol Hill rioters and, of course, claimed that he won the 2020 presidential election race.

Anyone who disagrees with him continues to be a nasty, lying peddler of fake news.

So what impact will all the above have on Trump’s bid for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination and a possible Trump-Biden re-run in 2024. I put that and several other questions to my podcast co-host Lockwood Phillips. You can listen to his replies on TransAtlantic Riff at Spotify.com.

Lockwood, I should add is a Trump-supporting conservative Republican. He reckoned that this week’s events will have no impact on Trump’s election chances. His base and position within the Republican Party is secure and Biden’s unpopularity will sweep the ex-president back into the White House.

Lockwood is representative of a Trump supp0rter. But not all conservative Americans. Others whom I canvassed were adamant that they voted for him in the past but would never cast their ballot for him again.

One senior Trump-appointed official told me: “Trump will be toast by the time the primaries actually take place… still more legal shoes will drop…. He is a dead man walking.”

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12 May 2023 – today’s press releases

  • GDP Stats: Britain still at the back of the growth queue
  • Profiteering supermarkets: It is absolute rubbish to oppose an investigation

GDP Stats: Britain still at the back of the growth queue

Responding to the latest GDP figures which show the economy shrank in March, Liberal Democrat Treasury Spokesperson Sarah Olney MP said:

The economy continues to be on its knees after years of Conservative chaos.

This government has hit families with spiralling mortgages, rising food and energy bills and huge unjustified tax hikes.

Complete mismanagement of the country’s financial books has put Britain at the back of the queue when it comes to growth, with

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Sally Hamwee: “I feel contaminated by the Bill”

Many of us are watching the progress of the appalling Illegal Immigration Bill as it makes its way through the Houses. On Wednesday it reached the Lords for a second reading, and there were some barnstorming speeches from Lib Dem peers. Here are some extracts.

Brian Paddick moved an amendment that would have effectively killed the Bill immediately.

My Lords, Trevor Phillips recently wrote in the Times that, in 2000, 175 million people lived outside the country of their birth and that, by 2020, it was 280 million. He likened the Prime Minister’s pledge to “stop the boats” to King Canute ordering back the incoming tide. He argued that we need to bring order to the flow, rather than focusing on the impossible task of locking the doors to keep asylum seekers out. We agree.

We have yawning gaps in our labour markets that refugees could fill. We believe that we should adopt the approach many other countries are adopting, that responsibility should be taken away from the Home Office and given to the Foreign Office or the Department for Business and Trade and that “Migration is no job for a home secretary”. Phillips agrees. We should be harnessing the power of the incoming tide, not refusing to accept that it cannot be stopped.

The Government talk about “pull factors”. We talk about “push” factors: the intolerable conditions in their home countries that compel asylum seekers to find sanctuary elsewhere in the world. Even in detention in the UK, you do not have to worry about where you are going to live, how you are going to survive without adequate food or water, or whether you are going to be killed or persecuted, or otherwise have your life endangered. Can the Minister say what evidence the Government have that the measures in the Bill will deter small boat crossings?

The Bill seeks systematically to deny human rights to a group of people desperately seeking sanctuary. It would breach our international obligations under the UN conventions on refugees, on the rights of the child and on the reduction of statelessness, and the European convention against trafficking. This is the first, but not the only, Bill that explicitly states that it does not have to be compatible with the European Convention on Human Rights. The Human Rights Act is being revoked, one law at a time. The Bill would undermine the rule of law, with Ministers able to ignore the rulings of judges. At the same time, we are asking Russia and China to abide by the international rule of law.

I have one final thought. I studied moral philosophy at university. One of the acid tests of whether something was morally right was the question: “What would happen if everyone did the same thing?” Can the Minister say what would happen if every country adopted the approach outlined in the Bill?

This Bill is a low point in the history of this Government and we should not allow it to proceed any further. I beg to move.

Paul Scriven followed Alf Dubs, who was himself a child refugee, saved from the Nazis on the Kindertransport:

My Lords, what an absolute pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Dubs, who is a living example of what happens when a country opens its hearts to refugees and how those people can then settle here and contribute to the future prosperity of the nation that they make their home.

As well as impractical and inhumane, the Bill is ineffective. It is built on the ridiculous premise that the only way to stop the traffickers profiteering is to criminalise their vulnerable victims and treat them in a subhuman way. The Bill undermines our commitment to international law and our obligations under the UN conventions on refugees and the child, and it degrades what it means to be British. It trashes our proud and long-held values and our record, dating back to 1951, on how we deal with those seeking asylum. It undermines our country’s international standing for upholding and abiding by international law.

Susan Kramer, the daughter of a refugee, was particularly scathing about the language used around this subject:

My Lords, I decided to speak today after reading the words of the Immigration Minister, Robert Jenrick, speaking for the Government to Policy Exchange, demonising migrants and failing to recognise our responsibilities to refugees seeking asylum. He said that “excessive, uncontrolled migration threatens to cannibalise the compassion of the British public”.

“Cannibalise”—what a deliberate and demonising choice of word. He went on: “And those crossing tend to have completely different lifestyles … to those in the UK … undermining the cultural cohesiveness”.

It was deliberately divisive language and certainly not borne out by the UK experience.

I want the Minister today to show me the body of evidence and research that shows how British compassion has been “cannibalised” by asylum seekers and by people like my mother and me. I want to see his evidence of damage to cohesion that genuine asylum seekers, never mind migrants, have inflicted on the UK. I suspect that we will find it has no substance. He needs to show why diversity is a weakness not a strength. Ironically, if the Government continue to argue that migration creates such problems, it should never by its own logic return a single refugee to any country that already has a significant migrant population—and that eliminates most of Europe and indeed Africa, including Rwanda.

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Mark Williams selected to fight Ceredigion for the Liberal Democrats

Ceredigion Liberal Democrats have reselected Mark Williams as Liberal Democrats for Ceredigion following a vote of local party members. Mark Williams was formerly the MP for Ceredigion from 2005- 2017 and was the Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats. He and his wife Helen, who runs the local Community Hwb, live in Borth with their four children.

Since 2017 Mark has resumed his teaching career and has remained active in a range of local voluntary organisations and charities.

Commenting on his selection, Mark Williams said:

I am delighted to once again be our candidate in my home constituency, the place where we live, where my children have grown up and thrived, and in which I passionately believe has so much potential.

Ceredigion is a wonderful place in which to live, but all too often is overlooked by UK Government Westminster and the Welsh Government in Cardiff Bay.

That is why Ceredigion needs a strong voice to champion it in Parliament and why I’m going to be working hard to win back the seat and put Ceredigion’s interests first. Standing up for local communities has always been the defining characteristic of the Liberal Democrats.

The Liberal Democrats’ commitment to internationalism, protecting our natural environment, standing up for carers and reforming our democracy are things I’m really looking forward to talking to residents about on the doorstep.

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Eurovision: Lib Dems call for a Ukraine cultural reconstruction fund to mark Grand Final

The Liberal Democrats are calling on the Government to create a ‘lasting legacy’ for this week’s Eurovision by setting up a Ukrainian cultural reconstruction fund with the UK’s European allies.

Eurovision 2023 is being hosted by the UK on behalf of Ukraine – after Ukraine was victorious in the 2022 edition of the contest, amidst the initial months of Russia’s invasion.

The BBC has emphasised that this Saturday’s Grand Final will have “glorious Ukraine at its heart.”

To commemorate the occasion, the Liberal Democrats have urged the Government to commemorate the occasion by establishing a Ukrainian cultural reconstruction fund, …

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11 May 2023 – yesterday’s press releases

  • TransPennine: Another broken Conservative promise
  • EU law bill: Conservative Party “devouring itself” while families struggle
  • Bank of England: If Hunt doesn’t meet inflation target then he must go

TransPennine: Another broken Conservative promise

Responding to the news that TransPennine Express will be brought under Government control, Liberal Democrat Spokesperson for Transport in the Lords, Baroness Randerson said:

The Government have been forced to take over another rail company. Passengers are angry that services are being cancelled and the Conservative’s failure to stop industrial action is making things worse.

Years ago the Conservatives promised to fix railway services, promising that the new “Great British Railways” would

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Mark Pack’s May report – Another great success

It’s vital to learn from failures. But it’s much more fun to learn from successes. So there is a lot of fun to be had in learning the lessons for the Liberal Democrats from the latest local elections.

Let’s summarise those successes with three numbers:

  • +407 seats – the party’s second biggest gain in raw seats since the mid-1990s.
  • +12 councils – taking the number of Lib Dem majority councils to its highest for at least 18 years.
  • 20% equivalent national share – the highest on this BBC measure since going into coalition in 2010. (The alternative NEV measure was the joint best since 2010.)

However, it’s important to remember that not everyone who hoped to win did so. For colleagues who were seeking election but didn’t make it, it can be even tougher when all around people are celebrating. If you, or someone close to you, is in that position, my commiserations and thanks for all you’ve done.

Five in a row

Perhaps the most important element of the local election results is one that has been mostly overlooked. It’s that the Lib Dems have now made it five rounds of local elections in a row at which we’ve made net gains. You have to go back to 2002-6 for the last time we did that.

Another way of looking at our progress is the cumulative gains and losses so far in May elections during this Parliament:

  • Lib Dems +637
  • Greens +416
  • Labour +318
  • Conservatives -1,309

That’s the sort of sustained progress which has been an important part of the party’s strategy in this Parliament: investing in our grassroots campaigning support, for both stronger and weaker areas, concentrating on target seats at election time but expanding our areas of strength as we do. Sustained grassroots growth is what will make us a successful national party.

The most dramatic progress was against the Conservatives, and as in 2019 once again our vote share did best the more an area had voted Remain. In areas that voted Remain in 2016, our vote share was up nearly 1.5 points on average, though in areas that voted 60% or more Leave in 2016, our vote share was down just under a point.

But in addition, many groups primarily up against Labour managed to grow, including us becoming the official opposition on Sunderland Council.

Overall, in the places with zero or one Lib Dem council seat up for election this time, we made a net 21 gains, going from 32 councillors in these councils to 53. Four times as many of these smaller places went forward as went back and we went up in every region.

Map of Lib Dem seat gains in May 2023 local elections

 

Regional breakdown of seat changes in May 2023 local elections

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Lib Dems call on Sunak to hold social care summit in Downing Street

The Liberal Democrats have called on Rishi Sunak to hold a cross-party summit in Downing Street on social care, to tackle soaring vacancies and the funding black hole.

It comes after the NHS and social care crisis was repeatedly brought up by voters at last weeks’ local elections.

The Conservative Party 2019 manifesto committed to “urgently seek a cross-party consensus” on social care and they pledged that no one would have to sell their house to pay for care.

Proper reform of social care is one of the biggest challenges facing the UK. Half a million people in England are now waiting …

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10 May 2023 – today’s press releases (part 2)

  • PMQs: Sunak refuses to ban water company bonuses amid sewage dumping scandal
  • Retained EU Law: Govt have dug themselves into a hole
  • Victory as Lib Dems force Govt u-turn on sewage regulation bonfire

PMQs: Sunak refuses to ban water company bonuses amid sewage dumping scandal

During Prime Minister’s Questions today, Rishi Sunak refused to back the Liberal Democrat demand to ban water company executive bonuses.

The Leader of the Liberal Democrats raised the multi-million pound bonuses paid to water company executives, despite their firms destroying rivers and coatlines with sewage discharges.

Conservative MPs were heard to be laughing at the issue of sewage discharges.

In the House of Commons, Leader of the Liberal Democrats Ed Davey asked:

Mr Speaker,

Last week, many lifelong Conservative voters turned to the Liberal Democrats to be their strong local champions.

They delivered their verdict on the Government’s failure to hold water companies to account for dumping raw sewage into our rivers and onto our beaches.

Water company bosses were paid fifteen million pounds in bonuses last year – rewarded for destroying our precious natural environment.

Three of those executives have now turned down their bonuses, but they should never have been entitled to them in the first place.

So will the Government now ban these sewage bonuses until the dumping stops?

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10 May 2023 – today’s press releases (part 1)

  • Rise in homelessness shows ban on no-fault evictions needed now
  • Bridgen should resign and cause a by-election
  • Lib Dems force vote tonight to kill Illegal Migration Bill

Rise in homelessness shows ban on no-fault evictions needed now

Responding to the latest figures showing a rise in homelessness in October to December 2022, Liberal Democrat Housing Spokesperson Helen Morgan MP said:

The shameful failure of the Conservatives to ban no fault evictions is directly responsible for this shocking increase in homelessness.

The Conservatives first promised to ban the practice when Theresa May was Prime Minister, yet still nothing has been done.

This ban needs to be brought in urgently before more families lose their home through no fault of their own.

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The fight for Turkey’s soul

He hasn’t been successful throughout his career. A former civil servant and ex-accountant, his political party has lost every general election since he became their leader in 2010. And yet, despite this, millions of Turks now look to him to save their country from their autocratic President and fulfil his promise to restore democracy to their country.

He is, of course, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the Republican People’s Party and head of the National Alliance. Comprised of six opposition parties, many hope the National Alliance will finally unseat incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, ending his grip on power.

In four days Turks will go to the polls in the 2023 Presidential Elections. It is estimated over 60 million Turks will cast their vote and elect a President for a new five year term. The opposition leader has been cast in the role of Turkey’s saviour; his signature hand gesture is to hold them in the shape of a heart, and he professes to live as ordinary Turks do (he has claimed he will eschew living in the presidential palace if elected).

Having lost every general election since elected as leader of the CHP, it is perhaps surprising that Kılıçdaroğlu has become the frontrunner to defeat Erdoğan. But actions speak loudly, and Kılıçdaroğlu has campaigned tirelessly to restore democracy to a country on the steep, dangerous slope towards complete autocracy. In 2017, a CHP politician and member of the Turkish parliament was sentenced to 25 years in prison, accused of leaking state secrets. Kılıçdaroğlu organised a 28-mile walk from Ankara to Istanbul in response – the “Justice March” – which, despite being attacked with stones and manure, carried their peaceful mark over 25 days to end with a rally in Maltepe.

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London Lib Dems prepare for the London elections next year

Every four years Londoners elect the Greater London Authority in the form of the Mayor of London and the 25 members of the London Assembly. As it happens the elections due in 2020 were postponed a year, so when the elections take place in May 2024 the current incumbents will have been in place for just three years.

The main focus is on the election of the Mayor of London, which for the first time will be chosen using First Past the Post. In the past there has been a supplementary vote, so voters could express a second preference. That changed with the Elections Act 2022, most remembered for the introduction of voter ID. But there were some other nuggets buried in the Act, including this regressive move away from the supplementary vote for elections for Mayors and Police Commissioners – itself a rudimentary type of PR – to First Past the Post.

The London Assembly holds the Mayor to account, and its 25 members are selected using the Additional Member system.  London is divided into 14 largish constituencies, each of which elects one member to the London Assembly, using First Past the Post.

The 14 constituency members are then topped up with 11 members from the party lists. Voters select one party list – they have no choice about the candidates on each list or the order in which they appear, which will have been determined by the parties themselves using their own internal selection methods.

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Two royal festive outings, the right to protest and activist minorities

First of all: it was a coincidence, but it must have been galling to Putin that both the Queens burial and the crowning of Charles III were two occasions that the British, geopolitical competitors of Russia since the era of the Eurasian “Great Game” around China, Afghanistan and Persia, presented the world with two brilliant military displays of discipline, high-end marching ability, historical uniforms, and with a plethora of Commonwealth troops joining in.

By contrast, the May 9th military parades for Russia’s VE Day over the “Nazis”, since 1945 one of the main manifestations of Soviet/Russian military might, have been toned down because after the fake “two slow drones attacking the Kremlin”-charade, Russia pretends that NATO infiltrators are attacking the Kremlin, citadel of Moscow, and screams that “they” want to kill Putin (who in reality seldom visits the Kremlin itself anyway; see: Russian defector sheds light on Putin paranoia and his secret train network | Vladimir Putin | The Guardian ).

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Perfect balance: The Liberal Democrats’ ideal outcome at the next General Election

The 2023 local elections have finally passed. Many of us put a great deal of time and effort into leafleting and canvassing around our communities to get out the vote and even to sway some voters. At these elections, we won a net gain of over 400 councillors and control of the councils in:

  • Chichester
  • Horsham
  • Stratford-upon-Avon
  • Dacorum
  • West Berkshire
  • South Oxfordshire
  • Guildford
  • Surrey Heath
  • Windsor and Maidenhead
  • Mid Devon
  • South Hams
  • Teignbridge
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Voting Liberal Democrat for the first time

Since I was eligible to vote, I have voted for the Conservative Party. Local elections, by-elections, General Elections; I’ve always “voted blue, no matter who”. Part of the reason, I’m sure, is the influence of my grandparents who have always voted Conservative. The other reason is easier to identify; as someone always interested – and now working in – law, the fact that the Conservative Party has always been identified as the “party of law and order” naturally drew me to them.

I won’t lie. I have never delved too deeply into the individual policies of the party. I started voting Conservative and didn’t stop. I followed Conservative MPs on Twitter and Facebook, I read “right leaning” newspapers and, for a period of time, I joined the local party association and gave my support as a local activist. I was even asked, where I used to live, to consider standing for the council (albeit as a paper candidate).

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Tom Arms’ World Review

UK

The advisers to King Charles III have scored an own goal on the eve of his coronation.

The crowning of a new monarch is the obvious opportunity for the British public – and the Commonwealth – to re-examine their monarchical v republican sympathies. And the resultant opinion polls make grim reading for King Charles III and his “heirs and successors.”

A YouGov poll for the BBC this week showed that a majority of the British public – 58 percent – supported the monarchy. However, among 18-24 year olds the figure was only 32 percent.

King Charles is also head of the Commonwealth and head of state in 15 Commonwealth countries. A straw poll of the 15 indicates that almost all of them are likely to become republics during the coming reign. As for the head of the Commonwealth, that is an elected position and Charles had to campaign hard to succeed his mother in the role.

In the midst of this monarchical uncertainty, Buckingham Palace (or possibly the Archbishop of Canterbury) has dramatically changed a key part of the coronation ceremony and in doing so alienated millions. The king’s subjects watching the ceremony on television are being asked to stand and swear “that I will pay true allegiance to Your Majesty and to your heirs and successors, according to law, so help me God.”

I have no problem with this because I separate the person from the institution. To my mind the monarch is the physical repository of British history, tradition, culture and law. Swearing allegiance to him (or her) is a bit like Americans swearing allegiance to the Star Spangled Banner.

But most people fail to see this distinction, and the wording of the oath does not help.  They don’t go beyond the person, whose faults include committing adultery against the glamorous and much loved Diana. They may support the monarchy but not necessarily the monarch and resent being asked to do so.

France

France appears to have a self-image problem. It also has a problem with economic realities, political crises and their relationship with their president.

This week the annual May Day parade descended into riots which in turn led to accusations of heavy-handed police tactics. Another general strike (which probably means more riots) has been scheduled for 6 June.

The immediate cause of the general discontent is President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to a decree that raised the pension age from 62 to 64. The rise made was backed by sound economic reasoning and undermined by poor political logic and tactics.

The row over the pension age was the straw that broke the back of the French body politic. Voters have been disturbed for some time by Macron’s tendency to do what he thinks best with scant regard for the views of his fellow Frenchmen.

This week the French president has been on a countrywide tour to try to explain his pension policies. It is too little too late. Almost everywhere he has gone his speeches have been drowned out by the angry banging of pots and pans.

On top of that, a recent survey exposed an underlying French discontent with their lot in life.  The poll revealed that 67 percent believe that France ranks with the United States in social and economic inequality. The United States is 71st out of 169 countries with 169 being the least equal. France is 6th, just below the Scandinavians.

Discontent has political consequences. It feeds populist politicians who promise simple solutions to complex problems.  A poll last month by the Elabe Group for BFM TV revealed that if a presidential election was held then it would be won by Marine Le Pen, leader of the Far Right National Rally. She would, according to the survey, garner 55 percent of the vote compared to 45 percent for Macron.

Marine Le Pen has already announced that she will stand again for the presidency in 2027. Macron is constitutionally barred from standing for a third term. His greatest fear is that he will be known as the president who paved the way for Marine Le Pen entering the Elysee Palace.

Russia

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The winning team in West Berkshire


Thanks to organiser Andy Briggs for this triumphant photo of the LibDem team at Newbury Racecourse yesterday.

They stand behind the lectern where, earlier, the returning officer announced 13 LibDem gains giving us 29 seats in a 43 seat council.

Well done to leader Lee Dillon, organiser Andy Briggs and the brilliant and very hard working LibDem West Berkshire team!

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Observations of an expat: Turkish Elections

Turkey is the ultimate political straddler. It straddles the Dardanelles – Eastern Europe’s gateway from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. It also straddles the continents of Europe and Asia and has historically bridged the cultures of East and West.

For all those reasons and more any Turkish election would be important. But the vote next weekend (14 May) is crucial for Turkey, Europe, the Middle East, NATO, and the Ukraine War and beyond. For the first time, Turkish voters have a clear choice between a populist Islamist autocrat and a politician who promises to return the country to the secular democratic roots that Kemal Ataturk introduced exactly 100 years ago.  Opinion polls indicate that the result could go either way.

The most likely scenario for this weekend is that none of the four candidates will win an outright majority this weekend. In that case, there will be a second round on 28 May which will almost certainly be between incumbent Recep Tayip Erdogan, populist leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Kemal Kilidaroglu, leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and representing a six-party anti-Erdogan coalition.

For most Turkish voters the key issues are the economy and the recent earthquake that killed more than 50,000 and displaced an estimated 6 million. On the first, Erdogan suffers. In the past two years, the Turkish lira has lost 60 percent of its value against the dollar. Runaway inflation at a peak of 86 percent through millions into poverty. It is currently 50 percent. Unemployment is running at 9.7 percent. Erdogan is universally blamed for mismanaging the economy.

The earthquake is another matter. The president was quick to visit the disaster-struck zones, organise relief operations and allocate money for rebuilding. But the quake was in Erdogan’s political heartland which means up to a million displaced people will be unable to vote for him.

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To round it off

We’ll end this splendid day with a summary from Ed Davey:

This has been an historic victory for the Liberal Democrats with our best result in decades.

It’s little wonder Rishi Sunak is running scared of a General Election, because he knows the Liberal Democrats are set to take swathes of seats across the Conservative  Party’s former heartlands.

The message from these elections is clear: people are fed up with being let down and taken for granted by this Conservative Government – it is time for a change.

Voters have sent a political shockwave to dozens of  Conservative MPs right across the blue wall. Our great country deserves so much better than this out-of-touch Prime Minister and his chaotic and careless Conservative Government.

With just three Councils, and one Mayoral contest (the one we hope to win!) left to declare we have won 1608 council seats, 415 more than the last time they were contested. That is not so very far behind the Labour net gain of 527 seats. In contrast the Conservatives have lost 1061 seats. And we now control a dozen more Councils than we did before.

Huge congratulations to all the campaign teams across the country! You have made us all proud to be Liberal Democrats today.

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West Berkshire turns orange

After 18 years of Conservative control, the Liberal Democrats won control of West Berkshire Council in the most stunning fashion.

Starting from a base of 16 seats, the Lib Dems leap frogged to 29 seats out of 43, winning in traditional Tory rural heartlands such as Bucklebury.

Local issues included a saga involving Newbury’s football pitch, potholes and the Local Plan. There was also a backcloth of local Tory in-fighting and the national picture.

You have to go back 32 years in the district to when control of the main local council changed from Tory to LibDem hands – that was in 1991.

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The smiles get even bigger

We are now on a net increase of 409 councillors, and the Conservatives have topped their worst case scenario of 1000 losses.

In Surrey Heath – an archetypal Blue Wall area straddling the Thames – we have taken control with 14 new seats coming to us, giving us 21 out of 35. That will give Michael Gove a huge headache tonight as it pretty much covers his constituency of the same name.

Wedged between Lib Dem Mole Valley and Chichester lies Horsham, newly turned bright gold with an increase of 15 councillors.

And we have taken control in Guildford, although some results are still pending.

Home Counties West Berkshire has also fallen into our laps with another superb net gain of 13 councillors. Us 29, them 14 is the score. Next door is South Oxfordshire which has also come to us – we can be sure of that even though there are still 6 seats to declare.

We are also now the largest party in nearby Wokingham, but not quite enough to take control directly.

We have now gained 12 Councils, and held many more. So far we have not lost any.

We are still awaiting the result of the Mayoral election in Bedford, which Dave Hodgson is defending.

And quick look at the BBC’s electoral map reveals that almost the entire bottom right hand corner of England is now under No Overall Control. Many of those Councils were previously held by Conservatives.

The Blue Wall is beginning to look like a Yellow Wall.

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Update on local election results – and I’m smiling, a lot

As I write 179 Councils have declared out of 230, and the news is good! We have increased the number of councillors by 255 and the Conservatives have lost 741 to a mixture of Labour, Lib Dems and Greens. We have gained control of seven councils – Stratford on Avon, Chichester, Windsor & Maidenhead, Dacoram, Mid Devon, Teignbridge and South Hams, and increased our councillors in many others.

A lovely orange banana is appearing down in Devon. At the top geographically is North Devon, where just one gain pushed us to over 50% of the seats. Next is Mid Devon, where we gained an astonishing 21 more councillors, giving us 33 out of 42. Below them lies Teignbridge where we now hold 26 out of 47 seats. And finally we meet the sea again in South Hams where we gained a stonking 9 councillors from the Tories, taking us into control with a clear majority.

Further north in Tewkesbury the Conservatives have lost control and we are now the largest party on the Council – negotiations will follow.

It’s a similar picture in Elmbridge where we are now the largest party, although in this case the Conservatives still lie in third place behind the Residents Associations.

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Voter ID – did it prevent electoral fraud or did it interfere with voters’ rights?

Various reports have been coming in about the impact of Voter ID on the polls.

The first thing to say is that almost all voters got the message and turned up with correct ID. But some didn’t, and that is worrying. Worse still we don’t actually know how many people were turned away in some council areas.

I was telling yesterday in Elmbridge and the council had employed one extra polling clerk at each polling station this time. Their job was to greet voters outside as they arrived, check they had suitable ID and then point them in the right direction. That may sound a sensible idea until you realise one thing. If a voter went inside the polling station without ID then this was recorded by the polling staff; if they then returned with the correct ID and voted then that was, of course, recorded too. So it should be possible to find out how many people were turned away for lack of ID and how many of those returned later to vote.  But where a greeter was employed there was no record of how many were turned away since they didn’t actually enter the polling station.

So I am bound to ask, why did the Council employ this tactic and who paid for the extra staff ? Were they just being kind hearted, unaware of the way it would supress data on those who were turned away? Or were Heads of Democratic Services advised to do this by a higher power?

The BBC has this: Voters express anger at ID rule changes. It includes a case where an immuno-supressed woman was unable to vote because she was not prepared to remove her mask for identification purposes.

Tom Brake, the former Lib Dem MP, is now the director of the Unlock Democracy, which has been campaigning against Voter ID. He is referred to in the BBC post:

(Tom Brake) said his organisation had been tracking social media throughout the day, and that it was clear that a “significant number of people didn’t know about the need for voter ID”.

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The Coronation as a symbol of national community

History and ritual are much closer concerns for Conservatives than for Liberals.  Faith, for many Liberals (and Socialists) is a positive turn-off.  So the Coronation will leave many of our active supporters cold.  But it shouldn’t.

Shared memories, myths and rituals construct a national community and hold it together. Shatter them, and the community falls apart.  Politicians try to reinterpret them to support the messages they prefer – which is why arguments about history are contested so vigorously, and why we should engage actively in debates about history and national identity.  The argument about Brexit was partly about whether we see ourselves as a European country, one among several European states with shared histories, or as an exceptional (and Anglo-Saxon) state with a global reach and a moral mission.

I have a particular perspective on all this.  I became a chorister at Westminster Abbey in 1950, when Britain was still the centre of an empire, believing itself to be a Great Power in spite of acute economic difficulties.  I sang at George VI’s lying-in-state and at the Coronation in 1953.  And I’ve remained involved in the Abbey since then, observing how ceremonial and ritual is carefully adapted to our changing national community.

In 1953 deference and social hierarchy were central. 1000 peers and peeresses filled the transepts. Dignitaries from ‘our’ dominions and colonies sat in the stalls below the choir gallery.  Apart from the Queen herself, the ceremony was conducted entirely by men (white men, of course).  The only non-Anglican minister of religion involved was the Moderator of the Church of Scotland; the Cardinal Archbishop sat in a gallery outside to observe the procession.

On the 50th Anniversary of the Coronation, the Cardinal Archbishop read the first lesson, while representatives of nonconformist churches sat behind him in the Sanctuary and leaders of ‘Britain’s other faiths’ sat in front.  The 60th anniversary service included a procession representing public service from across our national community.  Scouts and Guides, petty officers and NCOs were in the front; I walked in the back row, in peers’ robe, with a high court judge.  Just in front of us, in her reflective yellow jacket, was a school crossing keeper.  And it was her photo that was splashed across the papers the next day – a familiar figure with whom those watching could identify.

A great deal of care has gone into the symbolism of this Coronation, to show an image of Britain that relates to the diverse community we now are as well as to the traditions on which our state is based.  Some older people will think that the changes have gone too far.  Many younger people may think the whole thing is an echo of a past we should forget. The politics of striking a balance between continuity and change – a central issue in any democracy – are never easy.

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Ed has a big blue countdown clock

Victory gathering this morning in Windsor.

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Groundbreaking!

This is a groundbreaking night for the Liberal Democrats. We are exceeding all expectations. We have delivered a hammer blow to the Conservative Party in the Blue Wall ahead of next year’s general election.

That was Ed Davey early this morning BEFORE we heard the result from Windsor and Maidenhead.

Yesterday’s elections were built on the excellent results for the Lib Dems in 2019, so we were being somewhat cautious about our capacity to increase our wins this time. On the other hand the Conservatives had been managing expectations by making out that fewer than 1000 losses on the night would be a victory of sorts. In the event, the night ended with the Tories already down by 228 councillors, with some of the most vulnerable blue wall areas yet to be counted. Lib Dems are already up by 61, and three quarters of all councils are yet to declare.

So what happened in Windsor and Maidenhead? This is what happened:

LDEM: 61.0% (+37.5)
CON: 24.2% (-14.3)
LAB: 14.8% (+2.6)

Just savour that for a minute. We gained 13 seats to take control for the first time, and …

Now I wonder if anyone tried to canvass the King?

So what else has been going on since our last post?

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Lib Dems enjoy not feeling sad after election.

It’s just past 2am the 5th May and we’re already seeing some impressive results coming in for Lib Dems all over the country! In many places even where we aren’t winning we’re seeing good increases in vote shares even in the face of lower turnouts which really speaks to the hard work being done by activists all over the country. The BBC is reporting we’re up 2% in their key wards overall, 3% in high remain voting levels and 0.5% in high leave remaining areas with 189 of 792 counted

While a lot of counts aren’t happening until the morning we at LDV at far too excitable/masochistic/nerdy to wait that long so join us in celebrating some of our early wins!

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The case for state ownership or control of water and electricity

As many friends know, I now live in a seaside town in Greece.

I have been reflecting on the cost of living here and, in particular, the cost of water and electricity, compared to the UK.

I have just paid my first water bill. For six months I have paid 37€. It’s not that I don’t use water, I do. I have a washing machine and a dishwasher, I clean the car, I water the garden and of course I shower and shave daily. Compare that with the £25 a month I was paying in Mytholmroyd, which I left just over a year ago. I suspect it’s gone up now.

My most recent electricity bill was 134€ for a month and the Greek government subsidies me by 159€ a month. My house is all electric with AC units which double up as heaters in the winter and there are pumps on both the cold-water supply and the solar water heating panel. My cooker is electric. I believe that were I still in the UK I would be paying around £450 a month for my previous flat. This means that electricity in 74% more expensive in the UK even if I had no subsidy in Greece. With the subsidy my electricity bill is 280% less than in the UK.

Now, Greece is not a particularly wealthy country. It recently went through a major financial crisis and much that the state had done before has been lost. Water, however, is run by local councils. In the UK water is owned by private companies and the costs are exorbitant and the directors grossly overpaid.

My electricity company in Greece DEH is the former state-owned electricity company. Yet, it is not charging grossly inflated prices and people are being helped with their electricity bills. Sure, it’s slow to act and there are power cuts sometimes (mainly due to weather like thunderstorms), but it is providing a service at affordable prices. It is clearly regulated and behaves reasonably.

The conclusion I draw from this is twofold.

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