When the Labour Party won its ‘loveless landslide’ in 2024, its interest in electoral reform became conveniently weaker. By the time that Labour had won a huge majority at the last election, The Guardian’s Peter Walker was reporting that ‘the leadership could barely be less interested’ in electoral reform, even though there was and still is significant support for it within the Labour Party.
What about one year on, as the dust settles on the recent local elections? The results show that five parties are now competing and winning significant support. Will this lead to a different attitude towards electoral reform on the part of the Labour leadership?
Probably not. There are already three arguments being used to suggest that nothing much has changed. The first is that Reform will have responsibility now. They’ll have to run some councils. People will then see how useless they are. I have no truck with Reform’s policies, but this is not a case of the lunatics taking over the asylum. The idea that Reform are no more than a bunch of nutters and bigots, often with a dodgy criminal past, will not do. It is more likely that as with other extreme right-wing parties, for instance in France and Germany, their influence will linger, and they will continue to have a base of support. The right approach is to take them seriously while being firmly opposed to their policies. And that means not having an electoral system where they might be able to take complete control with no more than one-third of the vote.
The second argument (perhaps unsurprisingly) looks away from our European neighbours to go further afield. See what’s happened in Canada and Australia, it says. Centre-left parties were written off there, but look at Mark Carney and Anthony Albanese, who both won recent elections. Yet these elections took place in very different circumstances. Carney’s victory, for instance, involved challenging Trump and being prepared to retaliate where appropriate. Not exactly the way Starmer deals with Trump.
The third argument used to suggest that it will all soon be ‘business as usual’ again is that these five parties, like globules in a 1970s lava lamp, will end up recombining, Reform joining up with the Tories, perhaps the Greens with Labour or the Lib Dems. I think this is very unlikely. The five parties are now well-organised throughout the country and will not hesitate to put up their own candidates in future elections. I would also argue that there are still significant differences of policy between them.
For these three reasons, I fear that the Labour leadership will not take electoral reform as seriously as it should. Might it change its mind as we get closer to 2029 (as it has before on this issue)? It might, but even if it does change its mind, will it legislate to reform the voting system? Or will it end up promising to have another Commission looking yet again into all the alternatives and making recommendations to be implemented after the next election – which may become a classic case of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted?