Tom Arms’ World Review

USA – Trump

I may have written too early and ill-advisedly when last week I predicted the political decline of Donald Trump.

His delayed indictment in the Stormy Daniels case has finally hit the newsstands and the ex-president is deftly using his victimhood to rally his political base. “This is,” he said “political persecution and election interference at the highest level in history.”

Clearly the man never studied the classics or medieval European history.

But this has not stopped the conspiracy theorists from flooding cyber space with outlandish claims and threats of civil war. Qanon was quick to tweet that Trump is waging a secret war “against a network of Satan-worshipping paedophiles in government, business and the media.” It added ominously: “We are ready when you are…Mr President.”

Trump’s opponents in the race for the Republican nomination – Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis – are also lining up behind the ex-president to condemn the indictment as a witch hunt. They are all afraid of alienating Trump’s political base.

But how big is that base? For a start, a significant proportion of Trump’s base in the 2016 and 2020 elections were White evangelical Christians. They comprise roughly a quarter of the American population and 80 percent of them voted for Trump.

However, a large proportion of the Evangelicals are one issue voters – abortion. They have won that battle with Trump’s Supreme Court nominees. They are unlikely to shift their allegiance to “socialist” Joe Biden but Trump’s apparent lack of morals could pull them towards one of the other Republican hopefuls, an independent third candidate or abstention.

That still leaves a sizable chunk of Trump supporters who have now been galvanised by their leader’s imminent arrest. Their reaction is the major unknown in American politics, and, following the Capitol Hill riots, potentially worrying. There may even be enough Trump supporters within the Republican Party to secure him the nomination. In fact, as of this week, he is 30 points ahead of his nearest challenger Ron DeSantis. But that could be the end of Trump’s political road. The country is hopelessly split between Republicans and Democrats. The balance lies with the roughly thirty percent of the voting population who are registered independents. They, and disenchanted evangelicals and moderate Republicans are unlikely to cast their vote for a felon, or even an alleged felon.

USA – guns

There are lots of reasons Americans have more guns than people – 395 million shooters for 336 million people.

There is the pioneer Wild West culture, Hollywood’s glorification of gun culture, personal and family protection, law enforcement, recreational target shooting, hunting and, of course, the pursuit of criminal objectives.

To my mind, the most worrying reason is protection of the individual from the government. This is one of the arguments by the National Rifle Association and politicians such as Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. It is a justification which dates back to the 1689 English Bill of Rights when citizens were guaranteed the right to carry guns as a defense against the imposition of a Catholic monarch.

This fear of “big government” using its power to deny Americans basic human rights was one of the reasons for the Second Amendment. They had, after all, just fought a revolution against a government which had blocked their liberties.

The problem for gun advocates is that society and politics has moved on from the 18th century. We have now had 240 years of American governments elected by universal franchise (except for women who did not secure the right to vote until 1920) to pass laws to protect them. If the gun lobby has a problem with lack of representation in federal government then it should use the legal instruments in the US constitution to amend it.

Instead its solution is more guns. Guns in schools. Guns in churches. Guns in shops and theatres and guns in homes. Following the latest school shooting in Nashville, Tennessee, there are new reasons. Shootings are not a gun problem. They are a mental health problem. There are also, it is being argued post-Nashville, now a transgender problem because the shooter was a transgender person.

Very few Americans dare to suggest that the guns themselves are the problem. This is because the Second Amendment has become a political sacred cow.

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Happy April 1st!

We hope you enjoyed our traditional offering as much as we enjoyed putting it together.

The star of the piece, our party President Mark Pack, had his own news splash on Ed Davey’s battlebus with a difference.

And so the party’s cheese-merchants-in-chief have been bashing around ideas to replace a traditional battlebus with something more eye-catching.

Which is why that local election launch featured Ed Davey in a tractor.

If you watched very closely, you’ll have seen that he wasn’t driving it, but rather had a driver beside him, a press officer squeezed in behind them both next to a compact coffee machine, with a trailer pulled along behind loaded up with a group of mannequins.

For the choice of a tractor wasn’t a subtle jibe at the previous Conservative MP for Tiverton and Honiton. Rather, it was a test for doing a leader’s election tour by tractor.

Neil Fawcett, who also featured briefly in our piece, made his own announcement on Facebook, presumably to detract attention:

Two recent events have triggered a decision I have been mulling over for some time:
1 The refusal by Party President Mark Pack to allow an emergency meeting of the FCEC to discuss my proposal that we should use an electric tractor, rather than a diesel one, for the recent ‘blue wall’ stunt;
2 The release of the frankly excellent album, I Saw, A Star Behind Your Eyes, Don’t Let It Fade Away, by my talented Green councillor colleague Robin Bennett. (Fans of the Byrds, CSNY etc. will love it.)
As a result, I will be switching to join the Greens with immediate effect.

Given that Neil is genuinely indispensable, I’m very glad this is an April Fool.

One of my personal favourites was the Scotsman’s scoop of a new statue of Nicola Sturgeon to be erected in the Scottish Parliament. One of the big real news stories in Scotland at the moment is the absolute horlicks the SNP Government has made of building ferries but every cloud appears to have a silver lining:

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++BREAKING NEWS++ Liz Truss revealed as deep cover Liberal Democrat “sleeper” agent

Former Prime Minister Liz Truss has resigned from the Conservative Party after it was revealed that she has been acting secretly as an agent for the Liberal Democrats for thirty years.

In a bizarre series of events, the disclosure that an hereditary peerage was being lined up for Liberal Democrat President Mark Pack, sounded alarm bells which led to Ms Truss’ uncovering as a Liberal Democrat “sleeper”.

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Observations of an expat: Asian Stew

The current president of Taiwan is in America. Her immediate predecessor is in China. Meanwhile Beijing and Washington are slipping deeper into a dangerous stew of suspicion, enmity and mutual recriminations.

The visit to America by President Tsai Ing-wen is unofficial. It has to be to mute Chinese objections. But even unofficial visits by the Taiwanese raise the ire of Beijing and in this case the protests will be louder than usual because on April 5th President Tsai flies to California to meet Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy and other Republican leaders.

President Tsai and her Democratic Progressive Party are not flavour of the decade in Beijing. They lean towards a separate and independent Taiwan, although President Tsai is careful to avoid an explicit policy. She has cautiously declared: “Taiwan is already an independent state, thus rendering a formal declaration of independence is unnecessary.”

President Ma Ying-jeou was Taiwanese president from 2008 to 20016. He and his Kuomintang party lean towards a rapprochement with Beijing. Ma is currently on a 12-day unofficial visit to Mainland China. The first such visit by a past or present president of Taiwan. Like Tsai, he hedges his bets on relations with Beijing. In his first inaugural address he pledged: “No reunification, no independence, and no war.” He might have added: no commitments in any direction.

It was during Ma’s administration that shipping and other transport links with the mainland were re-established as well as a family reunification plan and a number of commercial ties. Some of those ties have been suspended by the Chinese Communist Party during Tsai’s administration.

Elections are scheduled in Taiwan in January and relations with the mainland are likely to dominate debates.

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Helen Morgan in good form on Question Time

Helen Morgan appeared on Question Time last night – and she was in battling form.

She addressed the first question, on proposals to house migrants in ex-military accommodation and on ships, and said that the way we treat migrants at the moment is  inhumane and shameful.

The next question was on climate change and net zero targets. She pointed out that we did make progress when we had  a Lib Dem Energy Secretary, and we quadrupled the energy output from renewables, but that things had gone downhill since then.

Here she is on the housing shortage …

And here on anti-social behaviour:

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Christmas Tree Bills – and the backlog in the Lords

The concept of a Christmas Tree Bill was new to me. Don Foster has been talking to PoliticsHome about them.

There are very many bills like Christmas Tree Bills, where it’s perfectly possible to move amendments that dangle further baubles on to the Christmas tree.

A very good example of that is the Levelling Up Bill, which really opens up the possibilities for almost anything to be moved as an amendment.

He has been commenting on the backlog in the House of Lords caused by hugely complex legislation making its way through the system.  In particular the Levelling Up And Regeneration Bill has attracted over 500 amendments, earning it this description as a Christmas Tree Bill. The Report stage is now not expected until the summer.

Don said it can be …

…extraordinarily difficult for a government and for the business managers of that government to timetable everything so it works.

You have one further complication which is ‘events dear boy, events’ where things emerge – for example we’ve had the issue around the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Having carefully planned well in advance what might be a timetable that works, events come along and things get totally screwed up.

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Mark Pack’s monthly report to members

It was lovely catching up again with many members in person at our York conference and thank you to everyone who safely voted through the proposals the Board put to conference, including our new Code of Conduct and improvements to our constitution.

Winning more power

Presenting the Board report, I talked about  how, as we enter the final phase of this Parliament, there are two overriding aims for the Liberal Democrats: win more council seats and elect more MPs.

We’ll best do this by concentrating on the issues that matter most to voters. But by doing this we will also get great Liberal Democrats elected and re-elected, who will then use political power to achieve a much broader range of liberal ends. People who can use power to help secure a fair deal for our citizens and our communities.

We have a brilliant opportunity to take the next big step at the May elections, as I wrote about last time.

The closer we get to the Westminster general election, the greater the focus becomes on our held and target Parliamentary seats. That is to the whole party’s benefit, as the better our general election result, the better we can win elections at other levels too.

The number of MPs we have is particularly important for our national profile because it sets so much of what happens to us, from how often a Lib Dem MP gets to ask a question at PMQs, through to how often there is a Lib Dem on political panel on TV, our presence in the regional media  and even how many commercial organisations pay up to exhibit at our conferences.

The more MPs we have, the higher our media profile, the stronger our finances and the better we do everywhere. Winning a Blue Wall constituency off the Conservatives will help us win Labour council seats in the Red Wall.

Our balancing act

Electing more MPs at the next general election is not enough for success on its own. Which is why the closer we get to that election, and the greater the pull of attention on our held and target seats, the more important the role of President and the Federal Board become in balancing that short-term imperative against the broader, longer-term work we need to continue for sustained success.

We need to continue to win council seats elsewhere, including in Labour and nationalist facing areas. We need to continue to have a network of campaign support staff helping local parties at all levels of electoral success. We need to continue to up our game on diversity and inclusion. We need to continue a long-term commitment to investing in better data and technology.

It is going to be a tricky balance to get right, and the best way to do that is to be upfront about the balancing act required.

If we can get it right, the biggest prize at stake is a strong enough voice in Parliament to secure electoral reform for the House of Commons.

That’s the route to permanently changing British politics for the better – and it’s the route to sustained, closer relations with Europe too. Because other European states can read our electoral statistics just as well as we can. They can see that the Conservatives win two general elections out of three under first past the post – and they know therefore the risk to any future agreements with pro-European British governments being undone by the next Conservative one.

Our need for more candidates

If that is the big prize at stake, the most immediate need is for us to stand more candidates in the May local elections. Last time, both Labour and the Conservatives stood considerably more candidates than us – and that gets reflected in how the media sees us. Missing a Liberal Democrat on the ballot paper also forces people to vote for someone else – breaking the habit of voting regularly for us that we need more of, not less of.

A mini-campaign pack has gone out to local parties about how to find more candidates for this May. If you live or work somewhere with elections yourself, please do think about offering to help get the Lib Dem name on more ballot papers this time.

Preparing for the general election… helping people win in May

General election campaigns are unusual beasts and, given our typical staff turnover, it’s always a challenge to have a good mix of experience in a general election team. Which is why the party already developing detailed general election plans, with a recent full awayday for senior staff to check on progress.

It’s also why this May’s local elections are being used in many ways as a dry run for a general election – good for boosting this May’s results and good for preparing for the general election.

One part of that is a daily Zoom surgery with the Compliance team so people can easily get help on the day they need it. Drop a line to [email protected] for more details.

Congratulations to our amazing award winners

Our spring federal conference in York included our latest party awards, with four brilliant people winning this time. Read about them and their achievements in the special story here.

Manifesto consultation

Dick Newby, chair of our general election manifesto working group emailed party members earlier this month inviting everyone to help shape our manifesto.

As Dick wrote, “We will be bringing a pre-Manifesto document to Autumn Conference this year, which will give attendees the chance to discuss the key policy pledges we want to include in the Manifesto itself. But we understand that not everybody can attend Conference, so we want to give every Member and Supporter in our party the opportunity to have their voice heard.”

As well as that survey, his email included news of seven online consultation events coming up.

(If you don’t recall getting the email, search for “Help us shape our future policy and manifesto ahead of the next General Election” in your email folders, or otherwise drop a line to [email protected] to check the email address and opt in status on your membership record.)

Welcome to new committee colleagues

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A duo of Lib Dems at PMQs highlight GP shortage and medicine issue

Lib Dems are doing very well at Prime Minister’s Questions at the moment. Yesterday, we had two questions to Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab in Rishi Sunak’s absence.

First up, Sarah Olney carried through the theme of the day – GP shortages, highlighting the impact:

From Hansard:

In a shocking article in Surrey Live last year, it was reported that staff at a GP practice in Walton were left in tears and “crumbling under pressure” owing to the increased workload caused by staff shortages. Is that any wonder when there are 850 fewer GPs in the country than there were in 2019? What does the Deputy Prime Minister say to patients left in pain and staff left in tears—including some in his own constituency—as a result of the Government’s failed promise to recruit more GPs?

The Deputy Prime Minister

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Now for a better country – Alex Cole-Hamilton’s pitch for First Minister

Alex Cole-Hamilton’s speech to Holyrood when he stood for First Minister on Tuesday is below. He knew he would lose, obviously, with only 4 MSPs. However a Birgitte Nyborg moment was not what he was going for. It was a simple choice between getting on the news setting out a Liberal Democrat Vision for Scotland or not. Enjoy. The text from the Official Report is below.

 

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Govt energy announcement: Half-baked plan shows they simply don’t care about cutting energy bills

Responding to the Government’s embargoed energy announcement, Liberal Democrat Climate Change and Energy spokesperson Wera Hobhouse MP said:

The fact the Government had to be dragged to court in order to announce this half-baked plan shows they simply don’t care about tackling climate change or cutting energy bills.

This updated Net Zero strategy once more falls far too short. There is no clear pathway to ending our fossil fuel dependency, a de facto ban remains on onshore wind and there is no remit for the regulator Ofgem to have a clear net zero objective.

This is just compounding the Government’s legacy

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29 March 2023 – today’s press releases

  • Only 2% of car thefts resulted in a charge last year
  • Government criticised for having no dedicated team working on water pollution
  • Ethics adviser must investigate Sunak over wife’s shares in company benefiting from government scheme
  • PMQs: Raab challenged over GP crisis in his own constituency

Only 2% of car thefts resulted in a charge last year

  • Home Secretary blasted as “asleep at the wheel” as tens of thousands of car thefts go unsolved
  • Liberal Democrats are calling for a return to proper community policing with known officers on the beat to clamp down on crime.

New research commissioned by the Liberal Democrats has shown that just 2% of car thefts in England and Wales result in a charge.

The official Home Office data, analysed by the House of Commons Library, revealed there were 100,000 car thefts in the the first three quarters of 2022.

Of the instances of car theft, an eye-watering 68,800 went unsolved. And – of those cases who did have a suspect – just 2% resulted in a charge.

Analysis of the statistics shows that the number of car thefts rose by over a third in the past year when comparing the same time period in 2021 to 2022, up from 74,605 in the first three quarters of 2021 to 97,225.

Liberal Democrats are calling for a return to proper community policing with known officers on the beat to clamp down on crime.

Analysis by the House of Commons Library found that the number of community police officers have fallen by more than 4,000 since 2015 across England and Wales.

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Why health is the theme for the Lib Dem local election launch

The Liberal Democrats have been analysing the latest data from the NHS. It shows that there are 547 fewer GP practices in England compared with 2019 – during a period when patient numbers have been rising. Now some of those could be due to mergers of practices, but not all, because we also know that GP numbers have fallen as well.

In fact, there are now 850 fewer NHS GPs than four years ago. Remember that in the last election (in 2019) the Tories promised to recruit 6000 more GPs.

Rural communities suffer most from losing their medical centres. There are 206 villages where patients have a journey of more than 5 miles to see a doctor – this figures is up on previous years as well.

We all know that the NHS is in crisis – appalling ambulance waiting times, long waits for transfer from A&E to hospital beds, unnecessary waits for discharge, unprecedented waiting lists for hospital appointments and for surgery.  On top of that there are huge pressures on GP practices, who are the first point of contact for anyone with a medical worry. It seems that over the last year 29% of UK adults have tried and failed to get a GP appointment.

There is clearly widespread anger and anxiety, although most people realise that none of this is the fault of the medical professionals.

Our simple policies of recruiting 8000 more GPs, and giving patients a legal right to see a GP within seven days, will go some way towards addressing the problems.

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Smashing the Blue Wall with a tractor

We promised you pictures from the launch of the party’s local election campaign today. Not content with a mallet, Ed Davey smashed the Blue Wall with a yellow tractor.

And this is what Ed said:

People are having to wait hours for an ambulance, weeks for a GP appointment or months for urgent cancer treatment as the NHS crisis spirals out of control. But the Conservatives have failed to deliver the new hospitals they promised and are breaking their pledge to recruit more GPs. It shows this Conservative government is out of touch, out of ideas and out of excuses.

The local elections in May are a chance to send a message that enough is enough: the British people are fed up with being taken for granted by the Conservative Party and want them out of government. From Stockport to Surrey, from Eastbourne to Esher, lifelong Conservative voters are saying ‘never again’ and backing Liberal Democrat candidates instead.

People are turning to the Liberal Democrats because they know we work hard for our communities, we hear your concerns, and we never take you for granted. It’s why we gained more seats than any other party at last year’s local elections – and why I know we’ll have more to celebrate across the country in May.

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Ed Davey to launch Lib Dem local election campaign

Ed Davey will today launch the Lib Dem campaign for this year’s local elections, which take place on 4th May.

And he’s already getting some good coverage. The theme for today is health, as that is what people are raising most with us on the doorstep. We are calling for an extra 8000 GPs to fill the massive gaps in coverage and service.

Here’s Ed talking to BBC Breakfast this morning:

From the BBC:

Lib Dem leader Ed Davey called on the government to create a legal right for patients to see a GP within seven days.

May’s council elections are the “final chance” to send a message to the government before a general election, Mr Davey will add.

On 4 May, 230 councils across England will hold an election.

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Volunteering Opportunity: Delegate to Liberal International Executive Committee

Location: Ottawa, Canada
Date: 2-6 May 2023

Liberal International will convene its 206th Executive Committee in Ottawa between 2-6 May 2023. For five days the global liberal family will come together at the seat of political decision-making in Canada – the federal capital – as LI returns to North America for its first statutory event in the region for 14 years.

Together with LI full member, the Canadian Group of Liberal International (CGLI), delegates will not only contribute to developing liberal policy and engaging throughout the ExCom between 2-4 May with new applicant parties but are cordially invited to fully participate in the Liberal Party of Canada (LI full member) convention which takes place (4-6 May) at the same venue directly following the conclusion of the 206th executive committee meeting.

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28 March 2023 – today’s press releases (Welsh Edition)

  • Welsh Liberal Democrats Launch Plan to Save NHS Dentistry in Wales
  • Interest Rate Rise Signals More Pain for Homeowners in Powys

Welsh Liberal Democrats Launch Plan to Save NHS Dentistry in Wales

The Welsh Liberal Democrats have launched their plans to save NHS dentistry in Wales, warning that unless the Welsh Labour Government takes action now NHS dentistry risks going extinct.

The Party have accused Labour Ministers in Cardiff Bay of utterly failing to get to grips with the problem, allowing an appalling two-tier system of dentistry in Wales to flourish whereby if you can afford it you go private, but those who can’t are left waiting in agony for months and sometimes years.

Talking to her party Welsh Liberal Democrat Leader Jane Dodds outlined that using her influence to fix NHS dentistry is one of her top priorities in the Senedd.

A previous FOI by the Welsh Liberal Democrats showed that over 800 children in Powys were waiting for an NHS dentist while in Cardiff the waiting list for children and adults is over 15,000 people. Other health boards do not operate centralised waiting lists which the Liberal Democrats state is a problem in itself.

Among the proposed actions laid out in the report, which was produced with industry professionals include:

  • Resolving outstanding contract issues as a priority
  • Integrating primary dental care more closely with other NHS primary care, especially to ensure that services are available in remote and rural areas
  • Increasing per-capita spending from the current £47 to match the levels of Scotland (£55) and Northern Ireland (£57)
  • Setting targets for Health Boards in terms of numbers of, and waiting times for, appointments, empowering them to use salaried staff to achieve those targets as well as entering into agreements with private sector providers
  • Setting up set up a national waiting list system to ensure that the process of getting an appointment is more efficient, and that fewer appointments are lost
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28 March 2023 – today’s press releases

  • Number of GP practices falls by over 500 since 2019
  • Lib Dems call for ban on strip searches in schools
  • Coffey attacks farming journalists

Number of GP practices falls by over 500 since 2019

  • Lib Dem Leader launches Local Election campaign calling for a return to “proper local health services” amid GP shortages and appointment delays
  • Rural areas “bearing the brunt of GP practice closures”, forcing people to drive long distances to see a doctor
  • Government on course to break Conservative manifesto pledge on doctor recruitment as GP numbers plummet by over 850 since the last election

New analysis of NHS data by the Liberal Democrats has found there are 547 fewer open and active GP practices in England compared to 2019 – despite rising patient numbers.

At the last election, the Conservative party promised to recruit 6,000 more GPs. However, today’s analysis reveals there are now 850 fewer GPs compared to 2019.

Rural communities are suffering most from GP practices closing. A recent study found 206 villages where patients must travel at least 5 miles to see a doctor – a 12% rise on 2017.

This new analysis of NHS figures follows a research poll commissioned by the Liberal Democrats which reveals over a quarter (29%) of UK adults have tried and failed to get a face-to-face GP appointment in their local area over the past twelve months.

Embarrassingly for the Government, GP practices are even closing in the Heath Secretary’s own constituency, with a Cambridgeshire practice serving thousands of local people due to close its doors this month.

Tomorrow (Wednesday 29th March), Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey will launch his party’s local election campaign in Hertfordshire, where he will call on the Government to invest in local health services. The South of England is the worst part of the country for GP appointment problems, where over 1 in 3 people tried and failed to secure a GP appointment last year.

The Liberal Democrats are calling on the government to recruit 8,000 more GPs and have set out plans to give patients a legal right to see a GP within 7 days. It would be achieved through increasing training places for GPs, a programme to retain experienced doctors and staff, and launching a recruitment drive to encourage those who’ve left the NHS to return.

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OfSTED needs urgent reform now – and the Lib Dems should be leading calls for it

The tragic news that Primary headteacher Ruth Perry took her own life after the primary school she led was downgraded from Outstanding to Inadequate after an inspection in November 2022 has shone a spotlight on the schools inspectorate, OfSTED. It has led to calls to review how these high stakes inspections take place and into the aftermath they wreak. It took over a week for the Chief Inspector, Amanda Spielman to publish a rather tin-eared statement outlining sympathy with Mrs Perry, her family and the school but making it very clear that inspections will continue unabated and unchanged. At least they responded – however Inadequately. This much – unless I’ve missed something – cannot be said for those that drive education policy in the major political parties, something I find perplexing. There is no way that the tragic death of someone should be used as a political football and this may lay at the heart of the relative silence of Gillian Keegan, Bridget Phillipson and Munira Wilson, but will it take another suicide or 2 more or 3 more before those in power stop, look and realise that putting their heads in the sand and hoping it goes away isn’t the right response?

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Why Putin’s arrest warrant matters

In May 2022 Putin issued a new decree to make it easier for Russians to adopt Ukrainian children. In addition, Russian officials announced it would extend government support to Russian families who adopt kidnapped Ukrainian children resulting in more than 16,000 being deported to Russia. The abducted children are forced to learn Russian, are denied contact with their families to “Russify” them by providing “patriotic education” and is considered an act of Genocide.

Although some children are being taken from orphanages, many have parents who were coerced into allowing their children to go and others were simply murdered. Daria Gerasimchuk, a Ukrainian government ombudswoman, told the Observer: “They kill the parents, for whatever reason, and kidnap the child. In other cases, they just grab the child directly from the family, perhaps to punish that family.” Such reports are similar to the Canadian Residential Schools and the Nazi Lebensborn program.

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27 March 2023 – today’s press release

“Inept Approach to Public Finances” – Welsh Lib Dems Respond to Welsh Gov Accounts Report

Responding to a Senedd report on Welsh Government accounts, Welsh Liberal Democrat Leader Jane Dodds MS said:

This report highlights an inept approach to Wales’ public finances from the Labour Party which shows a failure to protect public services during the pandemic.

£155 million is an extortionate amount for Wales to have missed out on.

It is also clear that neither Labour nor the Conservatives can be trusted to tackle fraud and that Welsh Labour criticisms of the UK Government losses to fraud during the pandemic now ring hollow.

Labour

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Self-identification, a Returning Officer’s Perspective

There was a constitutional amendment on the agenda for the recent York conference (item F15 on the agenda) that sought to amend the rules for ensuring gender diversity on the party’s committees (clause 2.5 of the constitution). The part of the amendment that has attracted most attention was the removal of non-binary people from the text, but the other proposed change was much more concerning from a practical point of view as a returning officer. This was the removal of the words “self-identification” as the means of determining whether a candidate is a man or a woman.

I’ve conducted internal elections within the party for more than twenty years for a variety of bodies – affiliated organisations, state parties, local parties. I’ve never conducted federal elections, but the vast majority of bodies within the party incorporate the federal rules on diversity into their own elections so I’m very familiar with how these rules are operated in practice.

On the most basic practical level, each candidate submits a nomination form, either on paper or online, and there are tick boxes on the form for each of the four diversity criteria, that is sex/gender, ethnicity, disability and LGBT+. The way that the sex/gender rules are implemented in practice is that there are three boxes, “man”, “woman” and “non-binary”. If you tick one then you are treated as being in that category for the purposes of applying the rules in clause 2.5. If you don’t tick any or you tick more than one, then, rather than invalidating your nomination, you are treated as being of a fourth category (ie of unspecified gender), where you would always be disadvantaged by the application of the rules. That is: there must be 40% women/non-binary, and 40% men/non-binary; you would have to get into the other 20% if you didn’t validly designate yourself.

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Humza Yousaf narrowly elected as Scotland’s First Minister

When Kate Forbes and Humza Yousaf entered the room at Murrayfield for the announcement of the SNP leadership election, Kate was smiling and looking like she had not a care in the world. Humza’s face was in his boots and he looked like he had the weight o the world on his shoulders.

I thought that Kate had won, but when the result came through, and Humza was proclaimed leader, you can maybe understand why he looked so miserable.

His margin of victory was that cursed ration of 52.1% to 47.9% over Kate Forbes, and we all know from Brexit how difficult it is to manage a situation where almost half of people are against you. On first preferences, he had 48% of the vote to Kate Forbes 40% and Ash Regan’s 11.1%, but Regan’s transfers broke overwhelmingly for Forbes.

There will be some relief in Scotland’s LGBT community that Yousaf, out of the three, has won. During the campaign, Kate Forbes expressed her opposition to same sex marriage and both she and Regan made clear their opposition to  the Gender Recognition Reform Bill.

The leadership campaign was at times absolutely vicious. Kate Forbes demolition of his record in office may well come back to haunt the soon to be First Minister. In the first major debate, she basically told him he was being moved from his Health portfolio if she won, and said:

“You were a transport minister and the trains were never on time, when you were justice secretary the police were stretched to breaking point, and now as health minister we’ve got record high waiting times – what makes you think you can do a better job as first minister?”

The thing I found most weird, having spent my Summer three years ago, along with many others, phone canvassing in our leadership election, that the SNP didn’t allow their candidates to have membership data in order to canvass. Maybe that explains the low turnout of 70% in such a fiercely fought election for, effectively, the leader of the country.

Scottish Lib Dem leader Alex Cole-Hamilton congratulated Humza but did not hold back about the challenge ahead of him:

I would like to congratulate Humza Yousaf on becoming the first minority ethnic leader of his party.

“Scotland is crying out for a First Minister who will put the people’s priorities first and be a leader for the whole country.

“There are huge challenges facing our country but sadly Humza Yousaf has not proven equal to those challenges in his previous roles. That’s not just my verdict but that of his colleague Kate Forbes.

“On his watch, 1 in 7 Scots are on a waiting list and his NHS recovery plan has completely failed to tackle crises in A&E, cancer care, mental health and dentistry.

“Reasonable, fair-minded people are turning away from the SNP and looking for someone who will fight their corner. This country is ready for change and Scottish Liberal Democrats will be part of what’s next.”

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Met police found to be institutionally racist, misogynistic and homophobic – Now what?

The Baroness Casey Review into the Met Police makes for very grim reading for all Londoners. The contents outline some horrific attitudes and behaviours towards minorities, women and LGBTQ+ people across the city it polices as well as within its own ranks. Baroness Casey has simply held a mirror up to this organisation and stated very clearly this has to change.

What makes reading the report even more depressing is that these same issues within the Met were identified back in 1999 in another independent review – the MacPherson report. This report only arose from years of campaigning by the Lawrence family seeking justice for their son Stephen. Stephen Lawrence was murdered in a racist attack in Eltham in 1993. The Macpherson report concluded the investigation into Stephen’s murder was “marred by a combination of professional incompetence, institutional racism and a failure of leadership”

I grew up in Lewisham in a ‘tough neighbourhood’ not far from Eltham within miles of the racist attitudes that prevailed at the time. My local pub, the Golden Lion, was the scene of the unsolved Daniel Morgan murder in 1987. Daniel’s family still wait for a justice that may never come and can only take some comfort the  Independent Panel enquiry they campaigned for established the Met was “institutionally corrupt” and  Britain’s biggest police force engaged in “the denial of the failings in investigation, including a failure to acknowledge professional incompetence, individual’s venal behaviour, and managerial and organisational failures”

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Welsh Liberal Democrat Conference – Calls for a New ‘Celtic Sea Powerhouse’

The Welsh Liberal Democrats have called for the creation of a “Celtic Sea Powerhouse” to serve as a new economic region for Wales harnessing green technology on the first day of their spring conference.

The policy comes on the back of the announcement of freeport status in Milford Haven and Port Talbot.

The policy calls for the cutting of red tape in Wales to establish floating offshore wind farms which can currently take up to 10 years for floating offshore wind to be given planning permission.

The Crown Estate Estimates the Celtic Sea has the economic potential to accommodate up to an additional …

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Tom Arms’ World Review

UK

The appearance of ex-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson before the House of Commons Privileges Committee has echoes of the fate of Charles the First and James the Second.

Each of the above cases helped to establish the supremacy of parliament over the monarchy, or the executive.

The modern-day British Prime Minister straddles both institutions. They must be a member of parliament and command the support of a majority of the House of Commons. But at the same time they are officially appointed by the monarch to represent them in parliament. They are accountable to both institutions, but as the 1689 Bill of Rights makes clear, more accountable to parliament which is “supreme.”

But if parliament is expected to do its job properly, it must be able to rely on the information that is provided by the executive branch (i.e. government ministers, including the prime minister). For that reason it is vital that ministers – especially the prime minister – do not intentionally or recklessly mislead or lie to the House of Commons or House of Lords.

To do so, completely undermines the principle of the supremacy of parliament and rocks the foundations of the British constitution. That is why Boris Johnson is in deep political hot water. It is not that he broke Covid rules. It is that he appears to have lied to parliament about it.

Charles I lost his head for challenging the supremacy of parliament and James II was forced to abdicate and fled to France. Boris Johnson is unlikely to suffer either fate. The worst that could happen to him is be suspended from parliament which is the 21st century equivalent of decapitation.

Such a move could easily split the Conservative Party. Boris has a strong personal following and Conservatives and despite the current ascendancy of the extreme right, they are divided between anti-European libertarian ideologues and one-nation tax-cutting businessmen.

France

State visits are a big deal. They require months, sometimes years, of careful protocol-driven planning. That is why the last minute cancellation of a state visit is an even bigger deal.

Next week King Charles III was scheduled to make his first ever state visit. It was to be to France to restore the Entente Cordiale to its pre-Brexit cordiality. On Friday it was announced that the visit had been postponed

For a change, the dramatic shift in protocol had nothing to do with Britain’s post-Brexit positions on Northern Ireland, fishing, immigration, Australian submarines or a thousand other potential Anglo-French flashpoints. It had everything to do with violent demonstrations sweeping across France in the wake of President Emmanuel Macron’s decreed legislation to increase the French retirement age from 62 to 64.

The result of the presidential decree has been a wave of violence and strikes across France. Rubbish is piling up in the streets of Paris. The entrance to Bordeaux Town Hall was set alight. 903 fires were started in the capital on Thursday, 400 people were arrested and police used tear gas against the demonstrators.

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The speech Ed Davey should have given at Spring Conference – my version

Ed Davey gave a speech at the York Spring Conference that received two standing ovations: one, as you’d expect, at the end; the other when he spoke about the “elephant in the room” – how our entire political establishment continues to ignore Brexit. However, after briefly mentioning red tape and improving relations, the speech rushed away from the topic and into the safe hands of president Putin.

It was a missed opportunity, as the standing ovation made plain. A previous article argued that far from being a liability, the issue of Europe and Brexit could be our party’s election thunderbolt.

It’s all very well to say that, but how do you navigate a topic as toxic as Brexit? What would Ed’s speech have looked like if we decided on a bolder approach?

Brave New World

It’s worth watching the speech to get a feel for where it was going – you can see it on YouTube in its entirety. Europe kicks at the 40-minute mark. But if you want to get closer to the action, start at 37-38 mins, where Ed Davey talks about a bolder approach to our economy.

Wait for the ovation to die down and then imagine for a second.

Because here is the rest of the speech Ed Davey should have given at Spring Conference.

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Observations of an expat: Trump declines (hopefully)

Former President of the United States Donald Trump was on Tuesday expected to be arrested for one of his many alleged crimes.

He, of course, claimed that the arrest was another chapter in a long-running political witch hunt and called on his supporters to take to the streets and protest. And they did – all ten of them.

Ten is an exaggeration, but not by much. It was certainly true that there were more police officers and people demonstrating against Trump outside the Manhattan court house then there were those protesting his innocence.

The opinion polls show him leading challenger Ron DeSantis in the race for the Republican nomination. But if bodies on the street are an indication, Donald Trump’s pulling power is on the wane.

The Stormy Daniels case is only one of several legal challenges facing the former occupant of the White House. His business—the Trump Organisation—is accused of fraud. Any day now a Georgia Grand Jury is expected to indict him for solicitation of election fraud. The Justice Department is investigating his role in the January 6 Capitol Hill Riots and he is may still be charged under the Espionage Act and obstruction of justice for unlawful possession of top secret documents after he left the White House.

But the case that could do Donald Trump the most damage does not directly involve the ex-president as either defendant or plaintiff. But it cuts to the very heart of Trump’s political structure – his claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen.

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24 March 2023 – today’s press release

Truss Honours: Rishi Sunak must block immediately

Responding to the leaked names on Liz Truss’ Honours List, Liberal Democrat Chief Whip Wendy Chamberlain MP said:

Handing out more expensive gongs to Conservative allies is a truly remarkable way to reward the shortest tenure as Prime Minister in British political history.

Truss and her Conservative colleagues trashed our economy and left millions in misery.

Those selected for honours are the very people who helped plunge the country into chaos and crisis.

Rishi Sunak must block these Honours immediately as allowing Truss to dish out positions of influence shows a stunning lack of humility.

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Liberation from cars – at least in cities …

I came to the Spring Conference for free and was dropped off at a bus stop outside my hotel, returning home three days later from a stop across the road. The travelling was on two routes operated by Transdev, one of the most forward looking bus companies in the country. Changing in Leeds Bus Station from one stand to another was my longest distance pulling a case, with no need to cross Leeds or York City Centres.

Since gaining my all-England concessionary bus pass a decade and a half ago (thank you Gordon Brown) and as a rail card user, I had become increasingly multi-modal in my travelling habits. Shortly after the 2022 Autumn Conference which never happened, I gave up driving completely.

As a former member of a Transport Authority and a lifelong student of public transport, I felt that I was as best placed an anyone else I knew when it came to making the best of inadequate bus services, which is possible in northern cities. I’m not sure I could say the same about trains. Of course it ought not to be like that. Other European countries do it differently. In or out of the EU, the UK has been woefully negligent in learning from our closest neighbours in terms of best practice in punctuality, frequency, cleanliness, safety, costs and convenience.

Round our way, a number of bus services get cancelled, often at short notice, “due to shortage of drivers” which means that constant tracking of vehicles takes priority over using timetables. If we are in a crisis caused by an absence of qualified staff, most passengers would probably settle pro tem for fewer journeys that were guaranteed to happen. I’d like to think that settling for this relatively unpalatable solution was one of the functions of management but this doesn’t seem to be case. The only way in which the whole mess is the fault of users is that we have failed to elect politicians willing to opt for radically new ways of paying for public transport. This would be preferable to control ultimately resting at the other end of the country, or indeed in other countries, with bosses constrained by the priorities of private sector shareholders.

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Accessing Conference

I love conference.

My first Federal Conference was at Harrogate in Spring 2009 (a lovely venue that we’ve not been back to since) and the buzz I got from being around my fellow Lib Dems from around the country was great and inspired me to go to many more. In fact, it probably inspired me to be involved in the party in other ways as well. I’ve been to a number of conferences since from Bournemouth to Sheffield and each one is different and interesting in its own way. When I started work as a school teacher in 2014 though, my ability to find the time to go to Conference dropped off. With the exception of a special visit to Brighton in 2016 specifically to support my fantastic friend Hywel ap Dafydd and his motion to promote NHS funding for PrEP medication, I haven’t been to conference for quite a few years.

Fast forward to last summer and I gave up my job as a school teacher and returned to university to study a masters programme in Data Science, AI and the ethics and regulation of AI (or ‘Responsible Data Science’ for short). This has afforded me the time to be more involved with the party again. I was delighted to be elected to Federal Policy Committee last year – my first time elected to any federal role after nearly two decades as a member.

Giving up work and returning to full time studies does have one big drawback though: finances. This year has not been without it’s financial challenges for everyone, but adjusting to life without my teacher’s salary has been difficult. As much as I love conference, I really felt that I couldn’t justify the cost to go this year. That is, until I was advised to apply for the Conference Access Fund. The application process was so simple and Susie Murray at HQ was very friendly and helpful as well.

From the fund I was able to claim £45 a night towards accommodation costs, I could have claimed travel costs as well. As someone who has had mental health difficulties for years I also qualified for a claim as a disabled member in the access fund as well, which increased my accommodation claim by a further £45 per night, taking me to £90 per night for accommodation. The rates for Autumn 2023 have already been published and include an uplift to £55 for the basic accommodation cost.

Being granted an award under the access fund literally allowed me to attend conference this year for the first time since 2016. But the big question – was conference worth it after all this time?

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